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Johan Santana Rumors
I know some of you crave daily Johan Santana updates...today we've got a blurb from Charley Walters:
The Twins say they're not panicking while holding out for the best deal for Johan Santana. But word within baseball circles is that offers by the New York Yankees (no more Phil Hughes) and Boston Red Sox are diminishing by the week. Best bet now for a trade of the two-time Cy Young Award winner appears to be with the New York Mets in a deal that would not include fast-rising hitter Fernando Martinez.
Yikes - from those solid Yankee/Red Sox offers to a Martinez-less Mets package? If that happens then I would say Bill Smith overplayed his hand. Kat O'Brien recently talked to Smith, but wasn't able to get much out of him. She believes the Yanks, Red Sox, and Mets "all retain some interest."
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I wonder if they will improve that 5 year 90 mil offer before accepting any of these diminishing offers. I would give another shot at an extension before accepting the Mets offer sans F-Mart.
Posted by: Jared78 | January 22, 2008 at 08:25 AM
what a noob
Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 22, 2008 at 08:28 AM
What's a noob?
Posted by: Jared78 | January 22, 2008 at 08:31 AM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/noob
Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 22, 2008 at 08:34 AM
Time for Seattle to step back in? Maybe now the Twins would consider a deal of Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, Chris Tillman, and either George Sherrill or (preferably) another minor leaguer aside from Balentien, Clement, Truinfel, or Aumont?
Posted by: KingCorran | January 22, 2008 at 08:44 AM
Got it, thanks. A little unnecessary but I would be a bit jaded if my team choked as bad as the Mets did this fall.
All I'm saying is that the Twins have one of the wealthiest owners in baseball and a new stadium opening in a couple of years and the Mets package minus F-Mart is a very hard sell to a fan base that has to be tired of losing star players. Mulvey/Humber are 3's at best and the Twins have plenty of young guys in their system that project to be 3-5's. Guerra has great stuff and scouts love his projection but its not like he dominated A-ball last year. Gomes has great speed and a nice frame but is he ever going to hit enough? The Mets package is probably right there with the one being offered by my Red Sox and the Yanks, just saying it is extremely risky and if you have an owner who is s worth 800-900 million dollars I would try and close the gap and offering 5 years/110mil (I think their offer was 5/90 mil)or something before accepting a package like that without F-Mart.
Posted by: Jared78 | January 22, 2008 at 08:51 AM
If there's a less credible source in the Twin Cities than Walters, I don't know who it would be. Sounds like a slow news day so he made stuff up again.
That said, Smith has contended from the outset that if he didn't get what he felt he needed from any team, he'd be fine with starting the season with Santana on the hill Opening Day. Not sure I consider it overplaying his hand if that turns out to be what happens.
The Sox/Yanks/Mets right now seem to think they'll be fine as presently constituted without Santana. Have to figure that before too long in to the season, at least one of them will realize they were wrong. This saga is a long way from being over.
Posted by: JimCrikket | January 22, 2008 at 08:57 AM
It's always tough to figure how these things will play out: were the Yanks and Sox just in it to keep Santana from going to the other team? Are they really out now? Are Adam Jones or Fernando Martinez really going to hold up a Johan deal?
Bottom line: I think the Mets need Santana more than any other team and I think the Sox and Yanks would be more than happy to see the Mets get him. Look for Johan to be a Met and Martinez to be playing in Rochester next season.
Posted by: BigScooter | January 22, 2008 at 08:57 AM
I still think that a) The Twins will hang onto him, or b) some darkhorse will sweep in and snatch him out from under everyone.
Posted by: FineHamAbounds | January 22, 2008 at 09:19 AM
Being a huge mets fan, I really can't see them getting him which is terrible to say, but it doesn't seem the twins want to deal him unless they get F-Mart. Omar is probably very hesitant especially after Kazmir-Zambrano
Posted by: Perry | January 22, 2008 at 09:35 AM
if the twins take nets offer over red sox or yankees offer i would be suprised, to me mets are offering nothing, they offered something like that for bedard and o's turn them down. im a yankees fan and would hate to see the red sox get him, but hey their offer was better than mets, but if yankees dont land santana, id like to see him go with the mets, after all i live in queens
Posted by: BxSquad | January 22, 2008 at 10:20 AM
one more thing, the kazmir for zambrano deal. this would be the opposite because mets will get the ace and twins will land a bunch of young guys who might not even make it.
Posted by: BxSquad | January 22, 2008 at 10:21 AM
You mentioned Kazmir and Zambrano in the same sentence... wait for Nrmax to rant...
anyway, I agree with those that are saying Smith is a noob. He has a lot less leverage than he thinks and now he may be losing out on the oppotunity to acquire a top prospect like Hughes/Ellsbury. he got pWnt.
Posted by: themfightnwords | January 22, 2008 at 10:23 AM
The comment "Gomez has great speed and a nice frame but is he ever going to hit enough?", you really can't look at his stint in the majors last year and evaluate based on tthat line. Gomez was brought up since all the OF's ahead of him in the depth chart were injured, so he really should have only been realistically a Sept call up. And actually his speed & glove work was pretty amazing. The question then is will he hit... Even if he hits 270 - 280, that's better than a deminishing Coco Crisp, plus the kid will be a major SB threat.
Posted by: advantgarde | January 22, 2008 at 10:32 AM
Hey Orioles fans, you guys still think I'm way off when I said that the Twins lose a little but more leverage every day they hold onto Santana?
Posted by: MrQuestions | January 22, 2008 at 10:57 AM
I realize that he should have been in triple-a last year. I am looking at his minor league totals as well...most hits around 270-280, draws a relatively low # of walks, not much power (yet, that is why I mention his nice frame)...I certainly agree he has more value to the Twins then Coco Crisp.
Posted by: Jared78 | January 22, 2008 at 10:57 AM
^^little bit
Posted by: MrQuestions | January 22, 2008 at 10:58 AM
@Jared
I should have clarified... I was talking about Bill Smith, not yourself. Sorry for the confusion.
Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 22, 2008 at 11:02 AM
@Jim
If BS decides to keep Santana, I wouldn't consider it overplaying his hand. However, he would still be a total fool. Santana still has a NTC. Does BS really want to run the risk of keeping him until July and then trying to move him? What's in it for Johan? He could just nix the deal and wait 3 months for a BIGGER payday than he would get in a trade+extension.
I think it's now or never for BS. Every single package being thrown around is worth more than a pair of draft picks next year.
Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 22, 2008 at 11:08 AM
JMF, actually if the Twins wait until July they could have more potential trade partners exactly BECAUSE Santana will be committed to testing the FA market. At that point, contending teams are bidding for a 3 month rental that they feel (rightfully so) will put them over the top.
Since Santana would, by then, be committed to testing Free Agency, contenders would not have to be concerned with the cash outlay necessary to contract with him for 6-7 years. That means literally every contender is a possibility.
Since this would only come in to play if the Twins are effectively out of the AL Central race, the Twins won't be concerned about getting someone who can contribute at the MLB level immediately. It will be all about the prospects teams are willing to give up.
Yes, Santana can veto any deal. But if the Twins are out of the race and he gets a chance to pitch for a contender down the stretch and maybe even a WS (which would certainly drive his contract potential up even higher), why in the world would he refuse?
To me, the Yankees and Sox are bidding against one another (assuming either is still interested) because they were offering MLB talent. The Mets, with their prospects offer, are bidding against what the Twins think the value is for a combination of (a) having Santana for another potential playoff run of their own, and (b) the prospects he could fetch in a mid season trade.
Posted by: JimCrikket | January 22, 2008 at 11:30 AM
If Hughes is out and F-Mart is out (an offer built around Coco Crisp-esque Gomez isn't enough) that leaves the Red Sox as the only viable team . My guess is that they would also rework their offer if the Yanks are out.
That leaves me with the most likely outcome being a mystery team (like the Angels, Tigers, Mariners, etc) coming in at the last minute with a take it or leave it offer.
Posted by: bjsguess | January 22, 2008 at 11:36 AM
If Hughes is out and F-Mart is out (an offer built around Coco Crisp-esque Gomez isn't enough) that leaves the Red Sox as the only viable team . My guess is that they would also rework their offer if the Yanks are out.
That leaves me with the most likely outcome being a mystery team (like the Angels, Tigers, Mariners, etc) coming in at the last minute with a take it or leave it offer.
Posted by: bjsguess | January 22, 2008 at 11:36 AM
@Jim
If Santana is committed to testing FA, and would refuse an extension, what would teams offer? Do you really think there's a team that would top one of the current offers knowing that Santana would be gone in two or three months? I have a hard time believing that.
Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 22, 2008 at 11:44 AM
I also think that Gomez, away from the pressure of a "New York" type market & coaching staff will develop. With the Twin's staff, I believe that he could be a perfect lead off hitter (eventually), and with his speed be a 30-40 sb threat (he's supposed to be even faster than Reyes),with potential gg caliber cf defense.
He may be a diamond in the rough and a real good pick up...
The other one that I am intrigued with is Deolis Guerra.
Posted by: advantgarde | January 22, 2008 at 11:47 AM
Guerra is definitely an intriguing player. I'm always reading "Oh he didn't do that good at A+ this year..."
He had a 4.01 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He's also 18 years old. The kid should be graduating HIGH SCHOOL in a few months.
Guerra, F-Mart, and Gomez make me not even care if we don't land Santana.
Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 22, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Personally I lean more towards the Mets package, but I do feel that there needs to be another "chip" thrown in (Martinez or even A. Heilmann) to make it more palatable.
Posted by: advantgarde | January 22, 2008 at 11:57 AM
JMF, either you didn't read what I wrote or you just ignored one part of it. The Mets package is competing with what the Twins perceive the value of having Johan for a potential run of their own in 2008 AND whatever prospects they might be able to get at mid season if they aren't competitive.
There IS value to having Santana pitch for the Twins through July.
As for the prospects they might be able to get being competitive with what's being offered now... I'm not sure. Consider that there are very few teams even making offers now vs. potentially every contending team in July and the fact that, frankly, the Twins don't need some of the guys the Mets are offering... they have a ton of projected #3-4 SPs in their own pipeline. If they're only going to get one or two of Gomez, Guerra and Martinez from the Mets, then yes... I think there's a chance they can get teams to overpay in prospects in July to that degree of compensation.
Posted by: JimCrikket | January 22, 2008 at 12:02 PM
Actually Jim, I read what you wrote, and didn't ignore any of it. But hey... thanks for the assumptions!
How much value does 4 months of Santana have to the Twins? Sure it has some value, but to me, not enough to give up on the current offers and get (what I expect to be) a lower offer in July.
Yes more teams will be involved, but teams are not going to give up top prospects for 2-3 months of a guy KNOWING full well that he's leaving at the end of the season.
Posted by: JerseyMetFan | January 22, 2008 at 12:24 PM
You may be right, JMF... I wish I had the time to go back through the trade deadline deals for the past few years and look to see what "rentals" were getting in return. Even then, I'm not sure I can recall one recently that would have the potential impact to a playoff run that Santana could.
As to his value to the Twins for the first half of the season, there are a couple of things to consider in that... neither of which are easy to put a pricetag on.
First, there's the fact that he does put more butts in the seats when he pitches. Then there's potential that he could, in fact, lead the Twins to be contenders... putting even more butts in the seats even when he isn't scheduled to pitch and generating more fan interest.
Finally, there's the question of whether what the Twins do with him will have an effect on the possibility of guys like Morneau, Kubel and Cuddyer signing extensions to stay in Minnesota long term. There's certainly speculation that sending Santana off before the season even starts would signal to Morneau that the Twins are giving up on 2008... and might make him less inclined to sign an extension this spring. I'm not sure what kind of "value" that constitutes, but to Twins fans, "it ain't nothin".
Some segment of the fan base is going to be unhappy no matter what the Twins do, but I'm just sayin keeping him around to start the season to see how competitive this team can be is an option and not all that much worse than trading for a prospect package with really only one or two potential gems in it.
Posted by: JimCrikket | January 22, 2008 at 12:35 PM
You may be right in certain respects on "getting teams to overpay in prospects in July". But also it may backfire in the respect that some of the better "blue chip" prospects may be being used by their respective teams at that point.
Package that with the reality that it is a 2-3 month rental, that can be a real miscalculation, since there are really only a few teams that can take a major hit to their farm system for it, and their organization if they fall short...
You can also look at it as if it were the Viola deal Part 2…
Posted by: advantgarde | January 22, 2008 at 12:51 PM
The game's dynamics have changed a lot since Viola, but I grant that not all of those changes would favor Minnesota in this scenario. Fewer teams are willing to mortgage their future for short term rentals than used to be the case.
That said, looking back at last July 31, I see 9 teams in the NL alone that were within 3.5 games of their division lead. Now imagine if the Twins had said "Hey, anyone want Johan?"
I may be way off (it has happened before), but I just have to suspect someone would have been pretty tempted to offer up some prospects.
Posted by: JimCrikket | January 22, 2008 at 01:02 PM
Jim your right on. Look at the bounty the Rangers got for 3 months of Gagne from the Sox. We are talking Santana. I can assure you if Santana is there and the cubs are close, they make the trade. Mets too. Yankees too.
However I think that the Twins sign santana to a 5 year 110M extension. They have him and Lirano to top off the rotation. They trade Nathan at the deadline and get a young good 3rd baseman. They sign somone like Cabrara from the White Sox or Furcal from the Dodgers. Then they get real DH/OF to bat behind Morneau. Then they play hard for the Central in 09. Just in time to sell thier Season tix for the new digs. They aren't too many peices away from being able to compete for the WS. 08 just isnt the year. You just have to sell Santana on that and make him believe. When the Twins let Castillo go he became very upset that the Twins were giving up. But I thought at the time it was the right decision. Now they have to make him believe they are going to compete.
Jared fyi... :-)
Pohlad, Carl - Forbes # 245:
Net Worth: $2.8 bil
Carl Pohlad, a college drop out, made his money in banking, but is known for ownership of the Minnesota Twins baseball team. Pohlad sold Marquette Financial to Wells Fargo in 2001 for a billion dollar profit. Pohlad is 90 widowed, and lists Minneapolis as his home.
Pohlad is 90 I bet he wants another ring soon...
Posted by: Bleacher_Buddha | January 22, 2008 at 01:11 PM
I fail to see how the Twins would pass up Phil Hughes + Melky Cabrera. I can't believe they held out for one of Horne/Tabata/Jackson. They missed a great opportunity, and now they are going to get screwed. Maybe Ian Kennedy + Alan Horne + junk; that would kick the socks off of the Mets offer sans Martinez (I like that phrase now, thanks to whoever came up with it).
Posted by: JD | January 22, 2008 at 01:53 PM
Thanks Bleacher Buddha...what is 15-20 mil over 5 years to a guy like that...also what is the value of a couple of playoff berths over 5 years versus possibly none? How many tickets does Santana sell over 5 years? They should just offer him that 110 mil since it does not osund like the Mets are going beyond 5 years if a trade is consumated.
My aplogies NJetsFans...I thought that was a shot at me in the begnning of the thread. And I like the Mets prospects, especially Guerra...I am just looking at it from a Twins point of view of closing that contract gap. Seems like the potential difference of 20 million over 5 years is not going to hurt Pohlad at all and given all the players this team has lost over the years...
Posted by: Jared78 | January 22, 2008 at 01:55 PM
I think its absolutely hilarious how annoyed it makes themfightnwords that I call the Kazmir trade a good thing for the Mets. It really is funny how every time his name is mentioned themfightnwords tries to lure me into an arguement with him, but hey, trading Kazmir got out Duqutte, brought in the likes of Omar, Beltran, Pedro etc. It also ensured that we kept Wright and Reyes. Met fans know that both Duquette and Phillips both tried to move Reyes. Same thing with Wright, but mostly Reyes. As for Wright, I remember about 3 or 4 years ago the Mets were close to sending him off for Jose Cruz Jr. If Duquette didnt make the Kazmir trade, then Wright and/or Reyes are probably playing somewhere else also. Wright and Reyes are pretty good players, no?
Posted by: nrmax88 | January 22, 2008 at 02:35 PM
And themfightnwords, you are one of the only people stupid enough to try to play it out like I am saying the actual trade was good. I am not crazy, the trade in itself was horrendous, brutal, awful, dreadful, horrible, whatever else you want to add. But the aftermath of it was most likely favorable for the Mets. Do you think with Duquette still at the helm, the Mets have had 3 straight winning seasons, and be playoff contenders every year? Maybe, but I doubt it. If Duquette was still in NY we would probably still have Al Leiter in the rotation and John Franco closing games.
Posted by: nrmax88 | January 22, 2008 at 02:53 PM
Just eyeballing the game logs, it looks like the Twins draw about 8,000 extra fans to the Metrodome in Santana's starts. I didn't do this in detail, so I could be off by a bit (or a lot). Still it's pretty clear that there is value in keeping the guy. Tickets, parking, and concessions for more than 100,000 fans adds up to reall money that could be used to sign the high draft picks the Twins would get if and when Johan walks. Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy were 2006 draft picks who made major league contributions in 2007. I think most Twins fans would gladly take Chamberlain and Kennedy for Santana. Well, maybe you don't have to trade him to get that return.
Posted by: mac_1103 | January 22, 2008 at 03:20 PM
Mulvey- #3 starter
Humber- #4 starter
Guerra- #2 starter or bust
Gomez- .300/.360/.420 guy with 20+ steals and very good OF defense
I don't think that's enough, but add in
Martinez- .290/.370/.470 guy with 20+ steals and very good OF defense (bigger risk than Gomez, more likely to be better than the numbers I said)
and that's an offer I would take if I were Bill Smith.
Posted by: johansantana17 | January 22, 2008 at 09:18 PM
20+ steals for Gomez? Have you SEEN him run? Especially with a projected .300/.360/.420 line he would get 40+ easily.
Posted by: revans37 | January 22, 2008 at 10:29 PM