Reds Sign Affeldt

Larsen, that is Kyle Loshe that want the 5 year deal. All that Cincinnati got is a pitcher who is all washed up and he probally will have a 4 ERA again.

Another indication that the Bedard to the Mariners deal is probably deal. Rumor had it that Seattle would be interested in signing Affeldt if/when George Sherrill was dealt to Baltimore.

It seems like a good deal to me considering you usually have to make a 2-3 year committment and pay upwars of $3-4 million a season to get a lefty specialist these days as we've seen with the deals that Ron Mahay and Scott Downs have gotten this off-season.

I'd expect Matt Belisle to be in the mix for a rotation slot as well.

Tim is correct, Affeldt's control has been his nemesis.

He has a poor 1.6:1 k to bb ratio for his career.

Affeldt's career whip is 1.50, which doesn't bode well for him being a productive starter, especially in Cincy's park.

Affeldt's season by season whip totals as a big leaguer:

1.57
1.30
1.61
1.71
1.61
1.35

His second big league season showed a fair amount of promise, he was 7-6 in 18 starts and 18 relief appearances, had a 1.30 whip, 98 k's, 38 bb's, and a 3.93 era. Then things went downhill and he never made more than 9 starts in a season.

I guess for a pitching depleted team that doesn't have any lefty starters it's a fair gamble.

Although if I were Affeldt I would have tried to take a 1 year make good deal pitching half my games in a different park. I'm surprised the Mariners weren't in on him.

Thanks for the info, Tim. Don't forget about Matt Belisle in the Reds rotation too. I'm sure he has a spot locked up. You think he took the cheap, 1 year deal because the Reds guaranteed him the chance to start?

I believe if the common fan knows that GABP inflates era, I'm sure other team's GMs know it too, meaning that a 4.5 in GABP could potentially be worth more than a 4.25 on the west coast. Plus GABP is mostly a pain to pitchers that give up HRs. Affeldt really doesn't give up too many of those.

Barring someone having a horrible spring, I'd say the Red's planned rotation is going to be:

Harrang
Arroyo
Belisle
Volquez
Affeldt

Bailey and Cueto will most likely start the year in AAA. A lot of GMs seem to be into this whole "delay their service clock" strategy (see Braun and Gallardo last year in Milwaukee).

Most Reds fans on other boards seem to like this move given the money and the 1 yr. contract. Thing is, since their 40-man roster is full, someone will have to be waived or traded. The popular pick is Stanton getting the ax. Not that it's likely to happen.

The Reds 40 man roster was filled before this signing. With Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle, Bray, Burton, Coffey, Cordero, Harang, Majewski, Stanton, Valenzuela, Volquez, Weathers, Ross, Valentin, Castro, Encarnacion, Gonzales, Hatteberg, Keppinger, Phillips, Votto, Dunn, Griffey, Freel, and Hopper already on the 40 and expected to be on the 25. However that's 26 guys. Throw in Affeldt and that's 27. Throw in Bruce and that's 28, with 2 guys coming off the 40. Something's gotta give before the season.

The Reds are mistaken if they think Affeldt can be an adequate starter. The last time he started was for KC. His stats were 7.80 ERA in 9 GS, 42.2 IP, 55 H, 29 BB, 18 SO, 8 HR.

Last year for the Rockies he walked 5 per 9 IP.

Another thing EVERYBODY is forgetting in this equation is the Reds POROUS Outfiled Defense.

Since Affeldt doesn't seem to miss many bats, that means the Outfield is going to get a lot of chances. With both Dunn and KGJ NOT having much range, that means many more balls are going to fall in for Hits than if Affeldt had other guys out there.

So, Walks, plus Hits plus playing in GASP (more Home Runs) means a higher ERA and more Losses.

The best part of this signing is that John Fay tried to ask Krivsky about it a lil while ago once it was already announced and the Krivdawg has refused to comment, won't even confirm it. This fits with every other move the Reds have made, there were no reports that they were in on Cordero, although I believe Tim suggested they could have been the mystery team, after word leaked that they were talking about Hamilton for Volquez the deal was shelved, then came back a month and a half later with no notice, and there was no reported interest from the Reds camp in Affeldt. Top secret information I guess.

This is solid for the reds. 3 mill is nothing could pay off well.

I like this signing because it is a deal either way they cut it. If he works out as a starter then they got a lefty in the rotation, if not they got one of the best bullpen guys from last year and he come's from coor's field which is worse than GABP. Good pickup for the reds.