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By Tim Dierkes [April 28, 2008 at 11:05am CST]
The Padres are 8.5 games out, and it's only April 28th. It's not a good place to be. Obviously they aren't throwing in the towel yet, but if they have a similarly ugly May a fire sale could be in order. Let's speculate on some trade possibilities.
- Greg Maddux. The Padres' highest paid player at $10MM, Mad Dog is calling his own shots at this point. I imagine he'd prefer to stay put.
- Brian Giles. The team's leadoff hitter still knows how to draw a walk. He doesn't hit lefties much but his overall numbers would look a lot better away from Petco. He earns $9MM this year and has a $3MM buyout for '09. He can block trades to eight teams and gets a $2MM increase if dealt.
- Jim Edmonds. He'd have to shake off the slow start and remain healthy. Makes $8MM with no-trade protection; the Cards are paying $2MM of his salary.
- Trevor Hoffman. Even if Hoffman loses the closer gig a trade seems unlikely.
- Randy Wolf. He might be one of the Padres' more tradeable commodities. He's signed reasonably and just needs to remain healthy. Everyone needs pitching.
- Khalil Greene. Greene gets $4.5MM this year and $6.5MM in '09. Trading him only makes sense if a good young shortstop comes back.
- Others: Tadahito Iguchi, Tony Clark, Glendon Rusch, Michael Barrett (if healthy).
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Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, James, Glavine.... all with injury concerns.... and maddux had a few good years in atlanta, plus we seem to be wanting to go for it this year all in... Maddux to the Braves.... uhhhhhhmmm yea
Posted by: bravesbeast | April 28, 2008 at 11:19 AM
Although the Padres are taking up the rear in the NL West...there are three other teams right there with them. If it wasn't for the torrid start by the D-backs, they'd be right there in the mix. Granted, this team is offensively challenged to be sure, and getting a couple of more bats will probably be needed for them to make a run. Don't see Maddux, Giles or Edmonds finding much interest out there. Think they may have to part with some of their bullpen or prospects to get something in return, or hope that their farm system can provide the help they need.
Posted by: dbacksbuzz | April 28, 2008 at 11:26 AM
While it is still early for a sale and the Padres have been almost a great team the past two Mays and could be right back in it, it is fun to build the franchise for the future. The Padres are in need of a CF - speed and defense - nothing in the system for a few years - and a right fielder if Giles goes (power here please). With the promotion of C Hundley, LF Headley, 2B Antonelli, OF Gerut and Starter LeBlanc, we can keep Barrett while he is hurt and trade Bard, Iguchi, Wolf, Germano, Edmunds, Giles, Hairston, McAnulty. Are there any blocked stud CF or RF out there? Bell is the next closer if Hoffman decides he should retire.
Posted by: VA Padres | April 28, 2008 at 11:34 AM
Yeah, a Final return run in Atlanta would be the ideal situation. Maddux already knows the area and the majority of the team.
Send Greene over to Baltimore they need a SS.
Posted by: XD23 | April 28, 2008 at 11:56 AM
who would want to give up even a blocked CF or RF stud for Bard, Iguchi, Wolf, Germano, Edmunds, Giles, Hairston, McAnulty? The Padres would have to include a one or more REAL prospects/players of their own.
Posted by: linuspauling | April 28, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Ah, Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine... the geriatric years. I wouldn't bet on it.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | April 28, 2008 at 12:17 PM
What about a Khalil Greene for JJ Hardy swap? I think both need a change of scenery.
Posted by: Lidocaine | April 28, 2008 at 12:25 PM
The players listed would not be a fire sale. The top talent on the team would be left and the players listed with the exception of Greene have a strong chance of leaving SD next year as is. The Padres are in need of some top line talent to put them up into the next tier of teams and the only player capable of fetching that on the list is Greene, but the Padres have no legitimate SS in the system to step in and given Greene's slow start the Padres would be selling low on him. The triple A help in the form of Leblanc, Headley, and Antonelli (Gerut is 30 he is not a prospect) are all struggling in triple A so calling them up now does not seem like an option if the Padres decided to go young. I think they stick it out and see if they can get back in the race. Also given the poor attendance (who wants to go see a bunch of strikeouts and 1-0 games) they need to get some offense it would pay for itself in the form of fans showing up to games and those guys are not going to get the type of player the Padres need.
Posted by: cwilli | April 28, 2008 at 12:29 PM
Didn't realize that having no fewer than 27 starts in the past 8 years made Huddy an injury risk. Hmm. The things we learn.
Posted by: ksesxe | April 28, 2008 at 12:47 PM
Really, there are several other teams that should consider a fire sale before the Pads. Of course, if the D'backs keep destroying everyone like they have been, may as well blow up and start over sooner than later...
Posted by: FineHamAbounds | April 28, 2008 at 12:51 PM
They should just stick it out. They really don't have much of value and any players that are worth it they have locked up to good contracts. Coco crisp seems like the logical choice for the pads and have a platoon of edmonds and hairston in left. Maybe barrett and headley for crisp. Other players like greene,gonzales,kouzmanoff eventually will hit. T
Posted by: joemorgan=#1 | April 28, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Fire sale doesn't mean most talented players, to me. It means most veterans. I guess each person has their own interpretation though.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | April 28, 2008 at 12:59 PM
There are only three players that are not going anywhere on the big league club, A-Gon, Peavy and Hoffman. The rest could be had.
Honestly Edmonds was a bad trade, i thought it at the time and still do. But he is not going to get anything. So either releases him or stick it out. Bring Hunter to AAA and see what the young kid can do.
Greene is something of that could actually get something in return. the problem is he would have to get a SS back, since we lack any within the organization. Or would have to get one back in another deal.
Wolf and Mad Dog would be dealt and than bring Romos and Leblanc up.
Lastly if we are giving up on this year, start with dealing some of the pen arms to teams in need, they wont get much, but lower level prospects but they could help in the future.
Posted by: AirmanSD | April 28, 2008 at 01:00 PM
I think there's reason for at least a little concern with Hudson.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | April 28, 2008 at 01:01 PM
Joemorgan, I would rather see Hunter out there than Crisp and he hasn't played pass AA yet.
Posted by: AirmanSD | April 28, 2008 at 01:01 PM
Being a Padre fan, I've had this on my mind a lot recently. The Padres won't have a firesale per se, as much as they will need to reload for 2010 and beyond. I think this has been the goal all along. Try to compete this year, and then let some of the high priced old-guys ride off into the sunset and have an abbreviated rebuild. Giles, Maddux, and Hoffman all come off the books this year. I think Giles will be done in SD, but I think they'll somehow keep Hoffy around for the farewell tour. Mad-dog is going to retire.
Obviously this plan has misfired, as the Pads have gone downhill faster than expected and the D-backs went nuclear sooner than expected. Thank goodness the Dodgers still don't know their head from a hole in the wall, 'cause with that much talent and payroll they should be fighting with the D-backs for first place for a while.
The Pads have the nucleus for the next team already locked up for the forseeable future in Peavy, CY, and Adrian Gonzalez. Anyone after that should be available. The West belongs to AZ, and maybe LA, for '08 and '09, but who knows after that.
I love Khalil, but he'd put up great numbers anywhere else and has the most value. I'd like to see Kouz get moved while he still seems to have some value, and isn't blocking Headley, who has a lot more value at 3B than LF. Obviously a lot of the other guys are spare parts for a contending team, but they still have a lot of value to the right team.
The trade I've been thinking about a lot is with the Cubs, who have asked for Khalil several times, and keep jerking around Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno. Khalil would be cost control for the Cubs, and put up great numbers in Wrigley while Pie and Cedeno would get full time jobs and the opportunity to sink or swim. Heaven knows the Pads could use a true CF.
Posted by: VAFriar | April 28, 2008 at 01:15 PM
you'd have to think if the Royals were remotely in the hunt come july, that if they cannot pry Hu lose from LA, they'd try to get Greene.
Pena's glove in KC is pretty wishy washy. Flashes of greatness, mixed with a lot of routine play errors...would love to see a solid glove and bat in KC. Greene could be that player.
Still early in the season though, and I can't see Kevin Towers playing the "well we are out of it" card. One thing I do love about SD..they never seem to give up.
Posted by: bobhamelin | April 28, 2008 at 01:21 PM
Well it has been 15 years since the fire sale that sent Sheffield to the Marlins (Hoffman was in the deal). And McGriff to the Braves. It might be time for another one.
Posted by: XD23 | April 28, 2008 at 01:44 PM
I don't get why you'd trade a good young SS (Khalil Greene) to get a good young SS.
Posted by: basemonkey | April 28, 2008 at 02:13 PM
Salary difference
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | April 28, 2008 at 02:18 PM
Salary difference and team control for more than 2 yrs, since that is all we have left with greene.
I think the pads should sign lofton, not trade for coco. a little cheaper and you don't have to give anything up.
But if we are 15 games back come june, then trade the only two guys with value, greene and wolf. We won't trade hoffman or maddux because neither would want to be. And no one else has any value (besides peavy, cy, kouz, and agon who will be staying). Bottom line, just stick it out till the trade deadline and decide then.
Posted by: UCSDPadsFan | April 28, 2008 at 02:30 PM
That's a crappy fire sale.
Not saying the Pads are talent-less, but of the names mentioned, only Greene has any real value. I could see him go to the Cubs for Cedeno and maybe Gallagher and a power relief prospect (or some approximation). Baltimore (as someone mentioned) is a seller, not a buyer; I'm a fan, but this ain't gonna last in the AL BEast. You're right, though...they DO need a SS.
It kinda sucks to be an NL West team right now, considering how good and how young the D'backs are. They're a potential dynasty; minimum 3 years (running the course of Webb's and Haren's current deals), max...? A decade?! I don't know how they'll play it out with the contracts and what not (buh-bye Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, Big Unit, and maybe even O-dog), but between Upton, Reynolds, Drew, Jackson, Young, Owings, Webb, Haren, and now Scherzer... Damn.
Posted by: milehigh78 | April 28, 2008 at 03:05 PM
if there is one thing Towers is good at, it is selling high his relief pitchers. so trade meredith, thatcher, cameron, rusch, ladezma... plus other parts and get useful position prospects/players back. Trades in the mold of the Linebrink deal but for position players is what the Padres need. Towers will always find useful relievers for next year.
Posted by: linuspauling | April 28, 2008 at 04:08 PM
Who ever said, Khalil Green to the O's is trippin'. They're rebuilding, they don't want Green who has been questionable in his career, to say the least. I forsee Green going to a team like the Blue Jays who don't really have a franchise shortstop. They might be able to grap someone like, Ricky Romero, or maybe Travis Snyder too, if the Pads include a reliver, maybe Rusch. That would be a good Trade, plus the Pads could get a rent-a-player if the Jays send David Eckstien: Khalil Green + Glendon Rusch in return for Ricky Romero + Travis Snyder + David Eckstein.
I know it's pushing it with Snyder but it's possible.
Another trade forsee able is: Meredith to the Angels for a top-tier prospect, the Angels want relief pitchers because they don't want to rush Adenhart, so I could see maybe Napoli or Mathis, along with Brandon Wood could happen.
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | April 28, 2008 at 05:54 PM
I don't think the Angels would trade any of those people for Meredith even straight up.
One trade I'd like to see is either Bard or Barrett for a prospect. The Yankees might be without Posada for awhile, and either of them would make a nice platoon with Jose Molina.
The Padres needed more offense even with Bradley and Cameron around. Towers' lame attempt to hide their loss with replacement-level guys like McAnulty, Huber, and Hairston was bound to backfire, especially on defense, and Edmonds has been a complete disaster in center and at the plate.
Posted by: michael | April 28, 2008 at 06:51 PM
"Not saying the Pads are talent-less, but of the names mentioned, only Greene has any real value. I could see him go to the Cubs for Cedeno and maybe Gallagher and a power relief prospect (or some approximation)."
I could see something similar to a deal like this as well. But both Cedeno and Gallagher have seen their values go up somewhat by playing so well this year, so it'd likely take little less than those two. My problems with a Greene deal are more based on the fact that he doesn't really fit their needs. He's terrific with the glove and has good power, but he struggles to get on base and doesn't have great speed, plus he bats righty. What the Cubs need is someone who can get on base with speed and bat lefthanded (sounds a lot like Brian Roberts.. hmm..)
"I forsee Green going to a team like the Blue Jays who don't really have a franchise shortstop. They might be able to grap someone like, Ricky Romero, or maybe Travis Snyder too, if the Pads include a reliver, maybe Rusch."
HAHA NO. Travis Snider is off limits. No way no how. Snider will take over at first or in left for the Jays by 2010, and will end up being a beast with the bat. He's arguably a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, and is far and away the best prospect in their organization. He's completely and 100% off limits unless its for a big name. If the Jays really wanted Greene, I think it'd be more along the lines of: Adam Lind, David Purcey and Marco Scutaro for Greene and Joe Thatcher. The Pads still get a potential quality bat in the OF in Lind, as well as a decent stopgap in Scutaro and a pitching prospect in Purcey.
"Meredith to the Angels for a top-tier prospect, the Angels want relief pitchers because they don't want to rush Adenhart, so I could see maybe Napoli or Mathis, along with Brandon Wood could happen."
After seeing the Snider-Greene proposal, and this proposal, I think that you're seriously misjudging the value of prospects. Meredith is a good set up man, and if the Angels got him he'd likely take over at closer if K-Rod leaves. But Meredith would never warrant a deal that includes Brandon Wood. He's still an elite power prospect, a guy who could hit 40 homers and play shortstop. There is just no way that Wood would be moved in order to land a reliever. If the Angels wanted Meredith I think it'd cost something more like Nick Green and Sean Rodriguez.
Posted by: scribbletone | April 28, 2008 at 07:00 PM
you're right. About Wood but, I could definatley see a Meredith for Napoli/Mathis. Opening up the trade with the Yanks like, Bard/Barrett for an OF prospect like Austin or that other hella good OF prospect, give me a second...Jose Tabata. Those would be a nice couple of Trades.
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | April 28, 2008 at 07:03 PM
"HAHA NO. Travis Snider is off limits. No way no how." Since when is it ridiculous to consider trading a 25+hr 90+RBI SS that plays Gold Glove caliber defense for a prospect that is two years away.
"But Meredith would never warrant a deal that includes Brandon Wood. He's still an elite power prospect, a guy who could hit 40 homers and play shortstop. There is just no way that Wood would be moved in order to land a reliever."
Wood is now a third basemen who strikes out in about 1/3 of the time in triple A. There is a high probability he turns into a Jack Cust (minus OBP) or Dallas McPherson type. I don't see them making that deal for Meredith alone, but it is not all that absurd, Meredith is a young proven big league reliever with a number of years of team control ahead of him.
Posted by: cwilli | April 28, 2008 at 07:23 PM
Brandon Wood was a top 5 prospect in the BA Handbook last year and is a top 20 prospect this year as well. Scouts say that although he's better fit as a third baseman, he'd likely be capable of playing short in the majors. Obviously he has his issues with plate discipline, and they could potentially turn him into a huge bust, but at this point his value is still that of a top prospect. Obviously a 40 homer hitting shortstop is his difinitive high point.
And while I do completely agree that something along the lines of Greene for Jeff Mathis and Sean Rodriguez could make a lot of sense, you're other idea is simply crazy talk. The Yankees love Austin Jackson and Tabata, for good reason. They were both rated as consensus top 40 prospects, and with New York's aging lineup, those two, Melky and Cano are the future. No way they get moved for a mediocre stopgap catcher. Maybe you could net a Brett Gardner for one of them though, if ya want him.
"Since when is it ridiculous to consider trading a 25+hr 90+RBI SS that plays Gold Glove caliber defense for a prospect that is two years away."
When that shortstop has a career line of .253/.310/.437, then suddenly they don't seem so valuable. And before 2007, Khalil Greene's career highs in HR and RBI were 15 and 70. Saying that he is a 25+ HR, 90+ RBI shortstop is an EXTREME exaggeration of what he actually is. He's a league average offensive shortstop because of good power, but a lack of plate discipline prevents him from being anything better than average. You should always look at the past few years of a player, not just his most recent year. Otherwise you end up considering Khalil Greene a 25 HR, 90 RBI shortstop. And although his defense is brilliant, he's just not quite worth a prospect on Travis Snider's level. No doubt he's a great player, thats why I thought my proposal of Adam Lind, David Pauley and Eckstein/Scutaro made sense. Lind and Pauley are still very valuable young players, but Snider is potentially a very special hitter.
When that prospect is one of the best prospects in baseball, a guy who is projected to be a middle of the order force, then I think that the trade becomes pretty ridiculous.
Posted by: scribbletone | April 28, 2008 at 07:46 PM
Cla Meredith? He won't go anywhere, he is only 24 or 25 and the best Padres bullpen pitcher. If he is available then I hope the Cubs get him and would consider him as a lefty sinker baller. Also, I think they should throw Khalil Greene in their too. So in this fire sale I hope the Cubs get involved in it and get the two I mentioned.
I would do this if anything happened between these two.
Khalil Greene
Cla Meredith
for
Sean Marshall
Matt Murton
Ronny Cedeno
Eric Patterson
Posted by: CUBBIES2008 | April 28, 2008 at 07:57 PM
"Khalil Greene
Cla Meredith
for
Sean Marshall
Matt Murton
Ronny Cedeno
Eric Patterson"
The Pads already have Antonelli projected as their second baseman long term so I'm not sure what use they could get out of E-Pat. Replace him with maybe a Billy Petrick, and replace Marshall with Gallagher, and I think you got a done deal.
Otherwise I think you're gonna get a lot of crap about the old "Cubs selling their useless guys for starters" stuff that seems to come up a lot on this site. But Cedeno has gathered a lot more respect with his start to this year.
Posted by: scribbletone | April 28, 2008 at 08:06 PM
Tim's Greene for Willits and a throw in idea sounded ok before Spring Training, but I really don't see the Angels needing a shortstop now given what Erick Aybar has shown he can do. He is faster than Greene, he is a better defender than Greene (the only guy who can match his arm+range is Furcal), he hits for a better average than Greene and he showed in the Spring that he can hit for power if he wants. In fact, his power numbers in the minors were comparable, if not better, than Greene's.
As for Meredith, he would have to come dirt f'ing cheap. Adenhart's situation does not even factor into this, because he is going to be a straight starter and the Angels are pitching well (other than Moseley, who should be back in the 'pen) enough to wait for Lackey to get back. Even if K-Rod leaves next year, the Angels are perfectly willing to turn to Shields, who has gotten every bit of his stuff back and who could probably benefit from the fewer innings a closer works. Further, given the way the Napoli/Mathis duo has hit and defended this year, there is no reason to make that a straight up deal. If the Angels really did want to make a deal, the Padres should take a stab at Juan Rivera plus a middling arm and sign Rivera to a cheap extension immediately. That way, you deal with your lack of outfield production with a true right handed power bat.
Posted by: AA | April 28, 2008 at 09:12 PM
Something could work with the cubs, but only if they were willing to give something up, like Gallagher and maybe a better prospect than E-pat, since we don't/shouldn't have a need at 2nd. What we need is simply a SS with good defense to come back, Cedeno is alright with the glove, yet in his only season playing real time a SS he committed 23 errors, something Greene has done once in his career, (20 in 2004, Cedeno had 23 in 2006 ). We have a lot of pitchers that pitch to contact so defense is more important to us.
Honestly I don't think Murton is an upgrade for us, honestly i think CF is the greater concern, since Hunter is at least 2 years away.
Honestly i think the Padres would not have a problem with the package as proposed, with the exception of the pitching involved, we need position players and they might ask for Colvin instead of pitching in return.
So something like this
Greene
Meredith
for
Colvin
Murton
Cedeno
That would be my best guess on what they would ask for. Remember if they do a firesale it would be to build for the future, and we have a lot of pitchers who look promising at the lower levels. What we lack is position players.
Posted by: AirmanSD | April 28, 2008 at 09:23 PM
But remember this fact, no matter what we think, this is Towers, and he will surprise all of us, he likes to take teams lower level guys, so if we want to look into this better look into the lower level prospects, AA A.
Posted by: AirmanSD | April 28, 2008 at 09:25 PM
As a Cubs fan, I would approve of a Murton, Cedeno, Colvin for Greene and Meredith trade. Murton is pretty much worthless to the Cubs, Cedeno is good but Greene is better, and even though I like Colvin, we already have more than enough outfielders. But if the Orioles would be willing to do a Gallagher/Colvin/Cedeno for Roberts deal, then I think thats the way to go. Sorry to bring it up again but its inevitable he fits the team too well.
Posted by: scribbletone | April 28, 2008 at 10:12 PM
"Sorry to bring it up again but its inevitable he fits the team too well."
With the exception of Mark DeRosa's brilliant play at second, of course.
Posted by: scribbletone | April 28, 2008 at 10:13 PM
“A 270/20HR guy barely deserves to play one of those positions for a crummy team.”
…Yeah, but how about a 375 OBP / 490 SLG guy? Yep, ironically the two are one in the same… And considering the AL-Avg 1B hit .267/.348/.443/.790 last year, while the AL-Avg DH was at .268/.355/.447/.802 ~ well…
Nah, having to move Posada to 1B/DH isnt the worst thing that can happen for that team. His numbers compare to Matsui really, well outside of the BA. Being stuck with Giambi or having to play Damon there would be much worse for the club… Plus, Posada not being behind the plate for 130+ games a year could mean increased production at the plate…
…That being said though, I imagine they don’t have to move Posada out of the position longterm. He will probably still be catching 100-ish games next year… And that being said ~ F@%#!!! I for one hope he cant play 100-ish G behind the plate, that Jeter needs to move to 1B and that they are forced to platoon Posada with Damon at DH… I hate the F*ing team, with a passion… But alas, we cant always get what we want (which is a 52-110 season for the Yanks if it was me)
Posted by: darkstar1661 | April 28, 2008 at 11:30 PM
Greene
for
Pie
Cedeno
Patterson (move Antonelli to SS)
or
Greene and Meredith
for
Willits
Izturis
another outfielder
Posted by: AnteaterPadre | April 29, 2008 at 01:33 PM
What they need to do is get rid of Jim Edmonds, trade the farm for Carl Crawford, fire Bud Black, join the American League, and hire Rally Mariachis.
Posted by: hitttman | April 29, 2008 at 04:14 PM
Keep dreaming hitttman, no chance. They are trying to rebuild, so why would they give up their entire farm system for one guy. And while I think everyone would agree to egt rid off Edmonds, who wants him? And there not going to fire Bud Black, the Pads did pretty well last year. And join the A.L. come on be somewhat realistic.
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | April 29, 2008 at 07:53 PM