Jay Bruce To Debut Tomorrow

Im taking a chance and picking him up on my fanasty team lol

Either Fogg or Patterson will be DFA'd. Patterson seems the more likely choice simply because he's provided nothing. Hell, that indy league team that just traded away 10 maple bats, maybe they've got some left around they can send Cincy for Patterson?

His arbitration date won't be affected unless he becomes a super two and I think that is unlikely. Regardless of any money talk, to keep him on the farm any longer would just be Ralph Wigam silly.

I believe that Stubbs is still in high A. Lets just say that he's playing well at AA by the end of the year.

I think mid-2009 is probably the best case for Stubbs.

The Reds won't trade Jr. until #600. Cuz you know once Griffey hits #599, every Reds home game will be sold out until Griffey finally hits #600. They need to make as much money as they can from this guy before they can just cut ties with him. Adam Dunn won't be dealt until the Trade Deadline starts coming up. I wouldn't be surprised so see Dunn dealt to the Indians for some more young starting pitching and a middle infielder. Jr will only be dealt to the Mariners unless of course the Cubs cut Edmonds move Fukudome to CF then trade for Jr and play him in RF. I'm sure the Reds could get something like Ronny Cedeno and some sort of pitching but who knows I have no inside info with the Reds and what step they will take next.

Adam Dunn has a full no trade clause till the middle of June.

Adam Dunn is the Reds most productive hitter at this time.

Adam Dunn has more then one tool. Just because you fail to see the others doesn't mean they do not exist.

Dunn, can field his position at a near average level provided that he has a real CF beside him. Something that he has never had up till late last year in Cincinnati. Both Griffey and Freel have been poor CFs for most of their time in Cincinnati.

Dunn is a solid baserunner, he can steal bases.

Dunn can hit for a respectable average, around .270 and will go the other way for hits.

Dunn has one of the better eyes in the game and will draw around 100 walks annually.

Adam Dunn when used correctly another thing the Reds have failed to do during his entire Reds career because they cater to Griffey, is a MVP caliber player along the lines of Andruw Jones or Ryan Howard during their MVP or near MVP seasons.

In a perfect world the Reds deal Griffey while his value is high (as stated the push to 600 will boost attendance) and put Bruce in RF.

Griffey is everything that people say Dunn is.

Can't run, can't field, can't hit for average, also throw in doesn't really hit for power as well.

And if they are stupid enough to deal Dunn to make room for Bruce instead of having him play CF or dealing Griffey...then Griffey must be moved to LF.

Of course this won't happen because of Griffey's immense ego. It took around two or three years just to get him to play RF instead of CF even though he was a horrible CF.

As for Ryan Freel, he should be traded. People see his ESPN highlights and think that he's a good player, but alot of those plays he makes because of poor reads. He's a bench player at best and you do not let such players dictate what you do with the starting lineup.

Also Joey Votto is a worse LF then Dunn.

But yes lets trade or let go of the the one player that has lead the Reds in pretty much every offensive catergory for the last five years. He's obviously the player at fault for the Reds losing records over that time.

no way griffey is with the reds next year both griffey and dunn will be here at the end of the year with dunn getting a 3 to 4 year extension and griffey gone for draft pick

Jay Bruce for president

Jack Cust wishes that he was half the player that Adam Dunn is.

Adam Dunn can most certainly hit .270, he was very close last year.

I do like how his improvements are always ignored.

Dunn has cut down on his strike outs in a big way while maintaining his power and walk rate.

He gets the little hits by going the other way against the shift when he can...there are times when that isn't really a option.

Dunn will get around 10 steals a year. Nothing flashy, but more then a station to station guy will get you.

Dunn has improved in every aspect of his game in the last two years and yet people still bash him as if he were the player he was in 06. That player was very much like Cust.

Dunn has improved a ton, and is only 28, might still be 27 I can't remember.

He needs to be playing LF for the Reds for at least the next four years with Bruce in RF and a qualty CF manning CF.

I believe that if Bruce is called up he is the CF until RF is open, either by trade or another Griffey specialty going down for over a month with a minor injury.

You don't burn service time to play a hack like Patterson.

Schellis,

over the last 5 years, Dunn's good for about 6 steals, maybe 7...not double digits. I mean, Dunn's no Carlos Lee....

Adam Dunn has never hit .270...he's been close twice in 6 years, but has been rather far away (.215?) the other 4 times. So I'd have to say that until he hits .270, he can't hit .270, and is lucky if he comes close.

Dunn's a useful guy to some extent. I mean he's great at getting on base and he's not a complete embarrasment in LF, as long as LF isn't vast. But what it boils down to, is: what is Dunn's purpose on offense? He's rather limited to being a pawn on the base paths, needing someone to drive him in. Because he's not much of a run producer, and he's not going to steal you many bases. You can't drive in runs, when you bat .223 with RISP.

Also he doesn't have one of the better eyes in the game. He strikes out a TON!

So my points are:

Dunn can steal a token base a few times a season.

Dunn can play a small LF without looking completely foolish, but he won't save any runs either.

Dunn doesn't drive in runs like a 40 HR guy should.

Dunn strikes out more than he walks.

“Dunn doesn't drive in runs like a 40 HR guy should.”

…Dunn has generally been a 5th ~ ie, after the #3 and cleanup hitter. How many RBI do you expect a 5 hitter to come away with considering they are hitting behind the two best RBI locations? And how many #5 guys score 100+ runs a year? He’s also played on rather crappy teams each and every year, yet youre worried that he only drives in and scores 100+ year in and year out?

“Adam Dunn has never hit .270...”

His BA is more a reflection of where he hits in the lineup, and the lack of protection he receives because of it. In 2006 he hit in the 2 hole for 31 games ~ he responded by hitting .317/.417/.593. The lower he hits in the lineup though, the lower his BA will be; much like Burrell has seen his BA fluctuate when he has been moved down in the lineup and had less protection. Put him in the 3-4 spot surrounded by a more balanced lineup, and his BA will most likely be in the .260-.275 range…

One more thing; Jack Cust has less than 1.5 years worth of PA over the last 7 seasons ~ and hit out of the 3 hole last year when he posted his nice looking line. This year they are being selective with who he faces, which of course increases his overall production. I have both on my Fantasy team ~ Cust is on the bench 75% of the time, Dunn is only bumped from my lineup when the Reds don’t play…

schellis,

Couldn't tell you were a Dunn lover.

For seven years the Reds have been LOSERS and for all seven years, Dunn and KGJ have been on the team. In fact they are the ONLY two players to be on the team for ALL of that time. They have been the centerpieces to losing.

Heck, during those seven years, the Ownership has changed, the stadiums have changed, the GM's have changed, the Managers have changed and the Coaches have changed. What HASN'T changed are Dunn and KGJ and their Home Run first approach to the Offense.

Now, as far as your other assertions;

No Trade clauses don't mean Jack. Johan Santana ALSO had a NTC and HE was traded. The NTC can be waived by the plsyer if he so chooses. Most of the time it happens, the player gets compensated for waiving it or he voluntarily waives it because the acquiring team is giving him a BIG contract. The Players Association doesn't like it and only gets involved when they see or feel a player has not gotten a fair deal when waiving the NTC.

Dunn has been a productive hitter for the last 13 Games. Before that, his Batting Average was near .200 and he was being outproduced by Jeff Keppinger, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion while KGJ, Corey Patterson and Paul Bako was nipping at his heels.

During the first 37 Games of the season, Dunn did practically nothing and the Reds were 15 and 22 during that time span and sank to the bottom of the NL Central. For the last 13 Games, Dunn has been hot and the Reds have gone 8 and 5 during that time and gained just one Game on the Cubs in the standings.

So, for 74% of the season, Dunn basically disappears and the Reds have a Winning Percentage of .405. Then, for 26% of the season he gets hot and the Reds have a Winning Percentage of .615. Extrapolate that out for a full 162 Games and the Reds record would be 74 and 88. Proving that Dunn hurts the team more than he helps them.

Now, since the Reds have had seven straight losing seasons and Dunn and King Griffey Junior have been the centerpieces of the Reds and are the ONLY two players to be on ALL of those teams, lets take a look at the combined records for the Reds.

From 2001 to 2007, the Reds combined Won - Loss record was 514 and 620, a .453 Winning Percentage. Over a 162 Game season, that equals a 73 and 89 record. Gee, isn't that eerily similiar to the Reds record when comparing Dunn when hot and Dunn when cold?

So, Dunn having two hot streaks a year, where he inflates his Offensive numbers does NOT compensate for the OTHER long stretches of Games where he is a non-factor.

As far as the other tools, what are they?

1) Batting Average.

Dunn's career .248 BA and his career .220 BA with RISP is not that great. Also, Dunn has NEVER hit .270 or higher in ANY of his Major League seasons. As far as getting Hits to the opposite field go, only his first two years did he do that on a regular basis. Since 2003, MOST of his hits have been to RF. You can look that up on his Hit Chart.

Dunn is a three outcome hitter because he doesn't swing at outside pitches. That is why Dunn has a sub .250 Batting Average and why he Walks 100 times a year while Striking Out over 150 times a year.

Dunn gambles and counts on Pitchers NOT being able to throw Strikes over the outside part of the plate. if they do, then he Strikes Out. This is why you often see Dunn take a called Third Strike without swinging the bat. If the Pitchers don't consistently throw Strikes over the outer third of the plate, then Dunn takes the Walk, where he remains firmly planted on First Base until some other hitter moves him along.

Where the Pitchers get into trouble is when they can't throw Strikes over the outer half and then have to throw a Strike over the middle of the plate. Those meat or mistake pitches are the ones that Dunn lives for.

Also if, as you say, Dunn swings at outside Strikes and takes the ball the other way, WHY does the opposing team put the Infield shift on? Heck, during the 2007 season, Brandon Phillips hit MORE Home Runs to the opposite field than Dunn even though he hit 10 LESS Home Runs, over all, than Dunn.

Even during a "hot streak" Dunn doesn't hit the ball to the opposite field very much. Of his last six Home Runs, five have gone to RF while one has gone to CF, according to Game Day. Of those Home Runs, five have been hit on Fast Balls and one on a Change Up.

Five of the six Home Runs have been on pitches that have either been out over the middle of Home plate or inside. Only one pitch was a Strike over the outer third of the plate and Dunn did NOT take that to LF.

Four of the six Home Runs were hit on pitches that were between the upper thigh and the belt. One was on a Pitch just above the belt and one was hit on a pitch just above the knees.

Basically, during the "hot streak" Dunn has been a tee ball hitter. If the pitches were not in a certain small zone, Dunn was NOT successful. When pitchers go back to throwing Change Ups, Sliders and Curve Balls for Strikes over the outside part of the plate and/or when they start throwing Fast Balls in on Dunn's hands, or up in his face (to change his eye level) Dunn will sink back into mediocrity. As it is, Dunn is comfortable at the plate and looking only for meat pitches.

2) Stolen bases and base running.

Dunn has stolen over 10 bases only once in his career. As many times that he has Walked there have been PLENTY of opportunites for Dunn to Steal bases but he hasn't.

As far as running the bases, he can't go from First to Home and score on a Double and he has poor judgement. Not as bad as Freel or Patterson but still pretty bad.

3) Fielding.

John DeWan, author of The Fielding Bible, says Dunn ANNUALLY costs the Reds 20 Runs, as compared to an average fielding Left Fielder, because of his poor Defense. DeWan says to account for that, you have to take 20 Runs off of his RBI total. So, playing in a bandbox like GASP, it would NOT be hard to find an AVERAGE fielding LF who could drive in 80 or so RBI's a year. It also wouldn't cost $13 million dollars a year to do so, money that could be used on Pitching, which ALL Dunn fans point to as the problem as far as the Reds having LOSING records for the last seven years.

This year already, Dunn has cost the Reds three Runs because of his poor D. One because of a bobble and two because of bad throws. I could also count a fourth if I wanted to because of him misplaying a ball that hit off the wall for a Triple.

What does having a good Center Fielder have anything to do with Dunn? Either Dunn has range and can field his position or he cant. Saying that Dunn NEEDS a good Center Fielder only gives credence to the fact that Dunn is NOT a good defender.

During Spring Training, Dusty Baker said the Reds NEEDED Corey Patterson because there was "a lot of grass between Dunn and Ken Griffey Junior". That means the ONLY reason Patterson is on the team is because Dunn and KGJ have limited range.

Because of that limited range, MANY more balls either fall in for Hits or go to the wall for Extra Base Hits than should happen. This means the Pitchers have to work to get extra Outs and also, because of GASP, means they give up more multi run Home Runs a year than they should. It also means their Pitch counts go up. Thus, the Pitchers look bad and the team ERA is unjustly inflated.

4) Throwing arm.

For being a highly touted High School Quarterback who went to the University of Texas to try and be their QB, Dunn has a weak and inaccurate arm. Hal McCoy even said this in an article or blog a week or so ago. He questioned why Dunn could still throw a football 60 yards in the air but NOT be able to throw a baseball very far or accurate. I say that maybe it is because Dunn's PASSION is football and baseball is just a job...

5) Home Runs.

This is the ONLY tool where Dunn is better than average. However this is somewhat offset because Dunn plays Left Field, a typical Offensive power position. That is why Brandon Phillips is so special, because he hit 30 Home Runs as a Second Baseman, a typical Defensive position.

Dunn's Home Run production is also dimished by the fact that, according to Bill James, Left Handed hitters power numbers are inflated by 27% because of GASP.

So, based on that, if Dunn played half his Games in a park where his numbers were NOT inflated, then he would only hit 34 or so Home Runs a year. This dovetails nicely with the fact that in five of seven years, Dunn has hit MORE Home Runs at Home than on the Road. For a guy who regularly hits balls over 400 feet, hitting Home Runs on the Road (where the Reds have also had seven straight losing seasons and where they struggle to socre Runs) shouldn't be a problem, but it is.

Also, never mind that the Reds ANNUALLY are ranked in the top third of the NL as far as hitting Home Runs are concerned (and usually LEAD the NL as far as hitting Home Runs at their Home ball park) but are ANNUALLY only in the middle of the pack as far as Runs scored goes. This even though, the Reds lead-off hitters are ANNUALLY ranked in the top third of the NL as far as On Base Percentage goes.

In 2007, the Reds lead off and number two hitters, combined, were ranked second in all of the NL as far as their OBP goes. So, for YEARS Dunn has had guys getting on base, it is just he has FAILED to drive them in and THAT is because he is NOT a good hitter.

As far as Dunn being an MVP - caliber player HA HA HA HA!!!!

When Ryan Howard won the MVP, even while Striking Out almost 200 times, he STILL had a Batting Average over .300. He also had a high BA with RISP and drove in a heck of a lot more Runs than Dunn EVER has.

Andruw Jones? Even when he isn't hitting, he STILL plays Gold Glove caliber Defense, something Dunn in his own words has said he will NEVER do.

Adam Dunn has received MVP votes in only two years, 2004 and 2005, where he finished 26th an 28th respectively. That means since there are only 16 teams in the NL, some teams had two or more players recieve MVP votes and who finished HIGHER in voting than Dunn in those years.

Last year, in what some say was a career year for Dunn, he received NO MVP votes while Brandon Phillips finished 22nd, which is higher than Dunn EVER has finished.

Face it, Adam Dunn is a Home Run hitter but not a GOOD hitter. If the pitch isn't out over the plate, he either can not or will not do anything with it.

As far as Home Runs go, big deal. I would rather have a hitter who consistantly makes contact (Dunn, for his career, has Struck Out in over 30% of his At-Bats, 99.9% of which were unproductive Outs).

Before his injury, Jeff Keppinger had Struck Out in less than 5% of his At- Bats. His regular Batting Average was over .300 and he was hitting over .400 with RISP and was leading the team in RBI's. This, even though, he had hit only two Home Runs, was hitting mostly in the two spot in the line up and then was moved to the seven hole (to give Dunn "protection").

Oh yeah, as far as protection goes, WHY is Dunn on a "hot streak" when Keppinger has been injured and NOBODY has been hitting well behind Dunn?

When Dunn was stinking the joint up early in the season, Votto and Bako were hitting well and Dunn fans were saying that Edwin E needed to be moved from hitting directly behind Dunn and a better, hotter hitter needed to be inserted into his place, thus giving Dunn protection. Where are those Dunn fans now?

Look, a GOOD hitter can hit in ANY spot in the order, against ANY type of Pitcher, ANY type of Pitch and in ANY stadium. Adam Dunn does NOT do that.

Adam Dunn and his Home Runs are overrated. Dunn is overpaid and the team that is stupid enough to give him a big dollar, long term contract will wish they hadn't. That is, unless he goes to the AL and becomes a DH.

The perfect spot for Dunn would be the Yankees or Red Sox because they can afford to overpay for what he does and they can hide him down in the lower part of the line up. That way, his Strike Outs and low BA with RISP aren't as bad because he wouldn't be depended on to be a Run producer like Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz or A Rod are. Then, when Dunn DOES hit a Home Run, it is an added bonus of production from the lower part of the order.

...and ctownboy...you expect me to read all that? musta taken you a while to type all that!

Bank Street Grounds,

I can not find the article or blog now, but one of the Sports Writers said Krivsky's first chioice was to keep Pete M as Manager.

As far a going on record about wanting Baker, WHY would he say HE wanted him instead of Ca$htellini? Because Krivsky is probably still looking to be a Major League GM. By going on record and saying (criticising) the Owner of the team you just got fired by, you send a BAD messsage to OTHER Owners and thus decrease your chances of getting hired. Just like Krivsky has said NOTHING about whose decision it was to pick up Dunn's 2008 option.

Coming from the Minnesota Twins organization, another "small market" team and one that preaches Pitching and Defense as cornerstones of winning (neithr of which Dunn either does or does well), WHY would Krivsky want to bring him back, especially at that salary?

The Twins and A's, two teams that Krivsky said he wanted to model the Reds after, USUALLY let big dollar, veteran players go, either by trading them for prospects or letting them become Free Agents and getting Amateur Draft picks as compensation. They thus reloaded their Minor Leagues with the young, inexpensive talent.

Those two teams let guys like Mulder, Zito, Hudson, Haren and Santana go, Pitchers who were ALL much more valuable to their teams than Dunn has been to the Reds.

Yes, those guys often faltered AFTER they left the Twins and A's but wasn't it smart of the teams to get rid of them BEFORE their productioin went downhill?

So, based on those players and then guys like Giambi, Damon and Hunter, WHY would Krivsky WANT to pick up Dunn's option?

The answer is that he probably didn't.

Before the 2007 season ended, Dunn and Ca$htellii had lunch together and supposedly talked about the future of the Reds but NOT about the option (yeah, right).

WHY would the Owner of the team talk to a potential Free Agent about the future of the team and NOT bring up the option? That would be like me going into my place of employment and giving my two week notice and THEN, a couple of days later, going to lunch with th Owner and talking about the future of the company.

That wouldn't happen UNLESS the Owner wanted to retain me as an employee. If he didn't, then he wouldn't talk to me.

Cust career ABs - 678
Dunn career ABs - 3505

hard to compare career OPS+ on that

To all,

Hasn't Ryan Howard been struggling this year and doesn't he STILL have MROE RBI's than Dunn, this even though Chase Utley has been hitting right in front of him and taking some of his RBI opportunites away?

Doesn't Burrell also have more RBI's than Dunn even though he has had BOTH Utley and Howard hitting in front of him?

mymrbig,

I don't know that much about Delmon Young, or who and where he plays and I don't want to seem argumentative BUT Bruce is going to have the luxury of hitting in a bandbox for half his Games.

Like I said in another post, Great American, according to Bill James, inflates Left Handed hitters power numbers by 27%. So, some Fly Ball Outs in most other parks will be Doubles and Home Runs in GASP for Bruce.

“Dunn and Burrell BOTH play in small hitter's parks. I don't know about Burrel but if Dunn played in a large park like PETCO or the old RFK stadium, his Home Run numbers would decrease and hsi Defense would be worse than what it is now”

…That’s pretty much wrong…
(Career)
Dunn at home ~ .254/.391/.546, 87 2B, 2 3B, 136 HR in 1706 AB
Dunn on road ~ .243/.373/.496, 97 2B, 6 3B, 115 HR in 1799 AB

…That difference is so minimal its not even funny ~ esp when you consider the fact that players often times play better at home.

“The problem with Dunn is that people, mostly his fans and people who are fans of other teams, look at his Fantasy League numbers. They DON'T look at him as a TOTAL baseball player so they DON'T see his deficiencies or how he hurts the team.”

…I see a guy who hits 5th in a bad lineup and posts consistent 100/100 seasons with a 950-ish OPS while being surrounded by questionable players most of the time. Knowing that only like 10 players can make the 100/100 cut a year, I know that its really, really special.

“Dunn has been hot for the past 13 Games and the Reds are 8 and 3 during that time period. Before that, Dunn was almost non existant and the Reds were 15 and 22.”

…That speaks to how crappy the rest of the team is, and how much they depend on Dunn ~ not to Dunn being a bad player…

“It would have been REALLY nice to have had some of that production from Dunn in some of those OTHER Games.”

…Ohhh, so you want someone like the whole *zero* players in the league that never experience ups and downs over 162 game schedules? Ok…

“Sure OTHER players could have stepped up, but since Dunn is the Home Run hitter and the Run producer, shouldn't HE take more heat for NOT producing in those Games?”

…He’s the 5 hitter ~ spots 1-2 should be getting on base, spots 3-4 should be driving in those runs ~ its not his job to carry the team if they put him in that spot with no protection though… Take that complaint up with Dusty…

“As far as Run production goes, Carl Crawford is on pace to, combined, score and drive in 224 Runs this year while hitting jsut 13 Home Runs.”

…Ok, great... He also plays in the AL, hits in the 2 spot and is on an extremely hot club. His pitiful OBP indicates that his R totals are a complete fluke though, and will be near impossible to keep up.

“Adam Dunn is, combined, on pace to score and drive in, 197 Runs this year while hitting 43 Home Runs.”

…Again, hitting 2nd in the AL on a good club vs hitting 5th in the NL; generally behind Griffey (low OBP, 3rd highest RBI total on club) Phillips (low OBP, tied-2nd highest RBI total on club) and Votto (low OBP, tied-2nd highest RBI total on club) ~ and he still leads the team in RBI and Runs scored!

…Seriously, youre looking for a scapegoat and picked out the best player as if he should be enough to make up for many deficiencies around him ~ well, it doesn’t work that way… If you have a problem, complain about Patterson, Jr, Phillips and Votto not getting on base ahead of him, or the pitiful protection Encarnacion is providing… But you don’t complain about the only guy truly doing his job and actually pulling his weight…

"...Dunn can hit for a respectable average, around .270..."

Wow, schellis, got a bit of a man-crush on Adam Dunn, don't you?

In what Bizzaro Universe are you living that Adam Dunn is a .270 hitter? Dunn has NEVER hit .270 or above, and hasn't even come close but two or three times, outside of his rookie year when he hit .262 in limited duty.

If Adam Dunn (again, in Bizzaro World) could hit .270-.275.-280, he just might win MVP. I do know several Strat-O-Matic Dunn owners who might spend an entire season cleaning themselves off if that happened. lol

The once rumored Jake Westbrook to the Reds trade was for Austin Kearns, not Adam Dunn.

schellis-

It's me...Adam Dunn's jock. Listen Schellis, I really appreciate the kind words and I think the sentiment behind them is sincere, but you're kinda freakin' me out. I thought we talked about this. Sweat me all you want...but from afar. The court order says you can't come within 500 feet of me, Schellis, and I'm going to insist you honor the terms of the restraining order. Also, Harang's scrote says 'back off'

Here's what I have against Adam Dunn:

He can't hit 3rd or 4th in the traditional lineup. So he's best suited for the 5th or 6th spot. I'm one that loves to use "average" stats like OPS, but using his OPS doesn't show a clear picture. Neither does just looking at RBIs.

I, just like anyone else knows that Dunn can get on base with the best of them. And being that he trades alot of ABs for the BB, it partially drives up his SLG%, creating an artificially bloated OPS. But for him to drive in runs, he has to get base hits, even if it's just a couple more singles a year. If anyone else can explain to me how runs can be driven in without base hits or sac flies, please help me out.

The NL averages this season:

#3 Hitter - .297
#4 Hitter - .281
#5 Hitter - .276
#6 Hitter - .256

I know that Dunn can get on base at a better clip than just about everyone in the league. He's great at this. But his lack of average, and even .270 isn't going to get him in the #4 range, keeps him from driving in the necessary runs for him to be a complete offensive player. If you want to bring up his splits for this season in the #5 hole (.280ish AVG) keep in mind that's about 40 points above his career avg there, and it's a small sample size.

So is Dunn, as a #6 hitter, where his OBP skills will be sacraficed because the #7-#9 hitters won't be able to take full advantage of his actual skills, be worth a huge $15M a year contract? If I'm a manager with Dunn, I wouldn't be pissed by any means, but I'd look to bat the guy 2nd. This is where his low AVG isn't really relevant and his OBP skills can be utilized. Unfortunately for Reds fans, Dusty Baker is at the helm, and he'll have Dunn bunting again pretty soon.

darkstar,

I get what you are saying, but please look back at what I said.."creating an artificially bloated OPS"

OPS being the key "word" here, not SLG%, which is what you addressed.

In 2007 Dunn had an.940 OPS.

You trade 50 BBs for 13 hits in your hypothesis, which would drop his OBP down to .343....

In your 1st idea, his OPS would be .871, a difference of 69 points...that's significant

In your second try his OPS would be .890, which not as wide a margin, but still 50 points lower than his actual OPS.

You seen his OBP will drop if you trade 50 walks for 13 hits, regardless of the SLG%. This is why I say his OPS is artificially inflated, and not just his SLG%.

I'm not saying he's useless, because he's not. But, you can't just look at his OPS to see his actual offensive value. Same goes for his RBIs or HR totals. The guy's a bit unique in what he does, which in my opinion handicaps him to some extent.

I said that it "partially drives up his SLG%"...which you proved was correct, but that wasn't the main point.

I get his OBP value. I think we can agree on this. It's the SLG% which to me isn't as valueable, because his AVG is usually quite low, or at least below average. The SLG% does play a role in his overall value, but his best skill isn't launching 400 foot homers, but rather just getting on base better than most.

And the guys you listed really aren't like Dunn. well Giambi (post 2005) is in a way, but he's unhealthy and changed his approach.

Dunn has a gap of .133 points between his career AVG and OBP, this is rather rare when the AVG is that low. This year, he's flirting with a .150 gap between the two. Delgado, Canseco and Strawberry don't come close to this career gap.

While some of these guys have had Adam Dunn type seasons, their careers are quite different. I'll give you Giambi as now a similar player, something that happened after he turned 33 and was on the decline phase of his career.

And Jay Bruce did look good last night.....

But, lets just do this the easy way…

Stats from age 24-27 seasons:
.914 OPS, 786 R+RBI, 354 R, 579 H, 152 2B, 06 3B, 137 HR, 432 RBI ~ Delgado
.880 OPS, 679 R+RBI, 312 R, 452 H, 070 2B, 04 3B, 124 HR, 367 RBI ~ Canseco
.888 OPS, 729 R+RBI, 354 R, 527 H, 112 2B, 14 3B, 134 HR, 375 RBI ~ Strawberry
.919 OPS, 813 R+RBI, 412 R, 554 H, 120 2B, 04 3B, 166 HR, 401 RBI ~ Dunn

Now he did carry a slightly higher amount of PA over those years (esp over Jose), but Delgado batted 3rd and 4th, Canseco solely batted 3rd, Strawberry was a 4 hitter outside of half the first year where he hit 5th… Oh, and they all played on better teams. So, despite being on a worse team, in a less R and RBI friendly hitting location, Dunn comes out with the same paces and a higher counting total… Obviously his OPS isnt that deceiving, right?

Listen, I know that some want to look at the lower BA and believe Dunn must not be that great or not that good in certain aspects or whatever ~ but its just flat out not the case. BA is a rather pointless stat; its nice to show trends in players play and can tell you who might be slumping or hot or whatever ~ but all in all it holds next to no value to a team. If Dunn it 300 but kept the same OBP, his R+RBI production would be nearly identical to what it is now. But he will never hit 300, and possibly never even hit .275, if he is continually to be slotted into the 5 spot…

So to sum it up ~ sorry, but there is just no evidence anywhere to back up the “he has a low BA, there must be holes in his game” theory. I mean, take a look at Fielder and then tell me what Prince's problem must be seeing as he is basically Dunn in the 3-4 spots with the adjustments you say Dunn should make…

“1st, Dunn plays in a great hitters park. Canseco and Strawberry played in horrible hitters parks. Delgado played in a neutral park.”

…Great… Only problem comes in the fact that Dunn produces at the same rate on the road …

“2nd, I said that none of those players had the gap between their AVG and OBP like Dunn has.”

…Great… And I said look pre-30 again ~ they are generally within like 10-15 points of his difference…

“I said nothing about OPS, RBIs, ect. I maintain that none of these guys do/did what Dunn does.”

…Why, because they had about .010 more points of BA? That’s the only real difference between them all…

“And regardless of what you throw out here, it's a bit of a stretch for you disprove my point of Dunn's rarity, with 2 guys who are no longer in the league, and 2 guys that who are on their way out. You had to go back some 15, 20 years and also make concessions to come up with 4 players, amoung hundreds upon hundreds that have similar OPS (which I did not address).”

…They were just 4 of the gigantic names that popped into my head as being extremely similar hitters…

“3rd, where does Prince Fielder fit in?”

…He’s Dunn, with a lower BB total but higher BA ~ like you say the real Dunn should be… And please don’t give me career SLG on a guy with less than 3 full seasons ~ he is a big, slow extreme power hitter who doesn’t take 100 walks but instead gets a couple more singles; like you requested…

“Last, and I'll say this one last time: you can't drive in runs without getting hits(that's batting average). Sac flys are only good for a couple RBIs a year.”

…Then how does Dunn do it? You yourself said he is one of only 97 guys to drive in 100 over the last 6 years, and he’s done it 3 times ~ that means he’s driving in a lot…

“I really fail to see what point your trying to make with Prince Fielder”

Fielder has the higher BA like you say Dunn should, and hits in a batting spot which is more inclined to produce RBI, but doesn’t drive in as many guys. How do you explain that? I mean, look at 2007 again real fast:
Dunn ~ 106 RBI – 40 HR = 66 RBI
Fielder ~ 119 RBI – 50 HR = 69 RBI
…That’s 3 extra RBI despite a difference of .024 points in BA and a 3-hitter vs a 5 hitter… If Dunn somehow has a problem, then Fielder must have a huge problem ~ we just cant blame his on a lack of BA…