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« Transaction Roundup: Athletics, Medders, Pena, German, Brower | Main | Possible Sellers: Detroit Tigers »
Viva El Birdos has a piece up about the Cardinals' surprise rise to contention this season. A potent question is raised within: Should the Cards be content with merely contending, or should they be gearing up for a real shot at the Cubs? It's not the easiest of decisions. They're just 1.5 games back of the Cubs on the day we wrap up the season's second month. But there are plenty of places this could go wrong.
For instance, Ryan Ludwick is currently the team's second best hitter. There is little in the outfielder's past that suggests he can maintain his .406 OBP or his .689 SLG. But hey, maybe they catch lightning in a bottle. And even if Ludwick does cool off, maybe Troy Glaus improves upon his uncharacteristic .380 SLG. Or maybe, like many recent years, he gets hurt.
That kind of illustrates the massive risk of mid-season moves. Injuries and flukes happen. And they both play an enormous role in a team's ability to contend. If I'm heading the Cardinals, I'd probably stand pat. Too much can go wrong between now and October. (Though they'll probably take another month to see how things are going.)
Once place the Cardinals can stand to improve is second base. Adam Kennedy clearly isn't cutting it. Aaron Miles hasn't been bad, but he really isn't the answer. One player Viva brings up -- and you're going to hate me for this -- is Brian Roberts. The Orioles have hit the cellar in the AL East, and might not climb out this season. We know that Peter Angelos favors Roberts, but there has to be a point where you trade him in to get some younger players if you can.
The Cards could use Anthony Reyes as trade bait. But who else? Any Cards fans want to jump in and talk about who is available, if anyone?
If the team doesn't want to deal with Angelos, and I wouldn't blame them, they could look at other second base options. Ray Durham probably won't cut it, as the Cards already have a handful of players hovering around a .355 OBP with no power. Mark Grundzielanek? Too similar to Durham. Mark Ellis? He won't come cheap.
I guess we'll find out over the next month whether the Cards are in it for keeps. I'm sure those names will be mentioned plenty if they are.
Joe Pawlikowski writes for River Ave. Blues, and can be reached here.
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This is a good write up. I can't see the Cardinals being willing to part with half of what the O's would want for Brian Roberts.
Also, couldn't they use an improvement at SS? I wouldn't think Caesar is a very good answer either.
I just can't believe Wellemeyer keeps pitching this way!
Posted by: Aduncaroo | May 31, 2008 at 10:39 AM
I'm not sure the Cardinals could contend with packages other contending teams could put together for Roberts. That said, they have Yadier Molina at the catcher's spot for the foreseeable future, so young Bryan Anderson really has nowhere to go and would seemingly be available in a trade, but how much would the Orioles want him with Wieters waiting in the wings?
Jaime Garcia, now in Triple-A, is coming on really strong, but probably won't be included in a trade.
Jason Motte's high-90's fastball is currently closing at Memphis, though he has struggled in the last week or so.
Then there's recently demoted Chris Duncan, who was sent to Memphis to iron out his swing, and the man that was recalled in his place, Joe Mather, could be attractive on the market as well.
Posted by: mateodh | May 31, 2008 at 10:39 AM
Roberts may be the best available but I agree with mateodh about the (non)availability of players like Bryan Anderson or Jaime Garcia for a 30-year-old second baseman.
Aside from Duncan, Reyes, and Motte, the Orioles might be able to include one of the other AAA/AA outfielders (Nick Stavinoha, Cody Haerther, Jon Jay, Shane Robinson) or third basemen (David Freese, Allen Craig).
All of the other infielders except Pete Kozma would probably be available but there's not much there. Lots of projects and underacheivers in that bunch. It's a shame the Cardinals can't play four outfielders at most levels.
Posted by: Seals | May 31, 2008 at 11:05 AM
Everybody talks about Barry Bonds only being a DH, what about going back to LF? Barry wants a ring and after a dismal 2007 season the Cards are ready to compete. Tony LaRussa begged his management to sign Bonds the last couple off-seasons. Bonds is still a better LF than Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez and he could protect Pujols in the lineup. Besides, their regular left fielder Chris Duncan just got sent down to AAA. All you Cards fans should be pushing John Mozeliak to pursue Barry.
Posted by: fenderfanatic | May 31, 2008 at 11:40 AM
Whew -- Pujols and Bonds on the same lineup card. That would be a beautiful thing. No matter how creaky Bonds's knees, the man can hit.
Posted by: wcw | May 31, 2008 at 11:43 AM
Second base is indeed the position that needs the most attention. The outfield is stacked, I keep hearing all of these folks talking about Barry Bonds but the fact of the matter is this -
Ankiel - Grade A glove in center, he hits well considering he's still essentially learning how to do it. He's already considerably better than league average and should continue to improve.
Ludwick - The man never had an extended number of AB's before. He bounced up and down up and down, could it possibly be that he is in fact a good player? I'm leaning towards yes, especially considering he was considerably better than league average in his appearances last year as well.
Now, Left Field. As of this point in time there are 5 other outfielders who merit consideration - Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan, Colby Rasmus, Brian Barton and Joe Mather. Mather is an unknown element, he's young and should however continue to improve. Barton - I like Barton but come next year he'll probably find he's expendable, that being said, he's a talented young player, with speed and an ever improving eye, he'd be a good trade candidate. Schumaker is on his way out, he's not the leadoff man they want, he's not got much power but he does have a good glove, a good arm and a pretty decent average. He's not going to get you much, but he could sweeten any deal. Rasmus is the real deal, we all know that. He's win - win. He'll either be great in the majors and garner a bundle in any sort of trade. I'm not made up on Duncan yet. He has 40+HR power, but he seems to suffer from terrible confidence issues and he's awful in the outfield. I imagine that by getting him extended AB's in AAA and then bringing him up for a few games and letting him hit, the organization believes they could actually get decent value for him.
So, there's the outfield.
Who do they go after? Isn't it simple - Dan Uggla. Oh sure, you're going to have to give up a lot to get him, but he's worth it. People have criticized his defense and whilst not stellar, it's not THAT bad. Plus, his bat more than makes up for it and I think he could be easier to prise away than Brian Roberts and he's younger.
Get Duncan back to his hitting ways and send him, Anderson, Reyes and some bum over to the Marlins. Who knows if they'd accept that or not, but you've got a power hitting 1st baseman, one of the best catching prospects around, a pitcher they've previously expressed interest in.. and then, whoever, possibly Schumaker, I have no idea who the fourth chip could be.
Posted by: DaveyThrashmister | May 31, 2008 at 11:54 AM
As a Bucs fan, I'd sh1t myself if I had to witness Zach Puke or John VanBenSuckMyself have to pitch to Pujols & Bonds in the same lineup. Talk about some straight video game stats in the boxscore. Thank Christ it'll never happen.
Posted by: bucs_lose_again | May 31, 2008 at 11:58 AM
Again with the gratuitous Angelos bashing. There is absolutely no evidence that Angelos has interfered since MacPhail took over. There is quite the opposite--evidence that he hasn't interfered. If Andy MacPhail wants to trade Brian Roberts, all evidence suggests he can. That he is trying to get better deals than those offered is understandable. None I've seen suggested as based in reality--other than fan and blogger speculation--is a deal as good as the two high draft choices the O's would get if they simply let Roberts walk after 2009.
Posted by: Playwright | May 31, 2008 at 12:06 PM
The suggested deals above are further evidence of the problem with blog respondents' perceptions. In fact, Roberts should be worth at least a Kozma and a near-Kozma--the equivalent of the draft choices the Orioles would get if they let Roberts walk. There's no certainty that Kozma will ever be a major leaguer, much less an All Star like Roberts. The trades suggested are often what a decent set up man should bring. Of course, Kozma himself isn't currently available, due to his status as a 2007 draftee.
Posted by: Playwright | May 31, 2008 at 12:12 PM
I don't think Kozma is untouchable but I doubt many teams would give up on a their own 18-year-old first-rounder so soon. Rules aside, that's all I meant.
Besides, I don't think the Cardinals are a good match for Roberts. They're not going to overpay, and the Orioles supposedly want too much.
This could all change but it doesn't look like a fit right now.
Posted by: Seals | May 31, 2008 at 12:39 PM
Maybe bring back Polanco? I know Pujols would be happy.
Posted by: CraveCase | May 31, 2008 at 12:45 PM
Personally, I think any team that takes Reyes will regret it soon after. His mechanics are absolutely dreadful and is headed for a short career unless he changes them.
Posted by: Sesshomaru | May 31, 2008 at 12:52 PM
The Cards are pretenders. Sacrificing any young talent for a quick fix this year will backfire on them. Bring in Bonds or bring in someone who only costs payroll. That might make some sense. But giving up talent would be foolish. The Cards are, at best, the 3rd best team in that division when all is said and done.
Posted by: bjsguess | May 31, 2008 at 01:04 PM
I've been saying it for a while, Jed Lowrie makes a lot of sense for the Cards. A good scrappy contact hitter of the Eckstein mold, a LaRussa style player. He'd be their long term 2B solution and he's easily most trustworthy than Kennedy. Add in something small and Boston could pry away Bryan Anderson. Anderson has no shot with the Cards with Molina on the team and Boston has to bite the bullet and realize Lugo is around for 3 years. Benefits both sides. I'm not saying it's what put the Cards in the postseason, but it is working for the future.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | May 31, 2008 at 01:12 PM
SWP- I'm not so sure Anderson is the better prospect of the two, if that's what you're implying. Both he and Lowrie play premium positions and Lowrie may have the edge in power if Anderson has a better pure bat. Of course, Lowrie, drafted out of college, is also three years older. Still, I would be satisfied with a straight-up deal if it came to that.
Posted by: mateodh | May 31, 2008 at 02:37 PM
First, regarding Bonds: Larussa has expressed interest in the past but the organization has stated clearly and unequivocally NO. Add the depth of outfielders in the system, and we can put that rumor to rest.
As far as second baseman go, the Cardinals seem to be nudging their own Brendan Ryan into that slot so I don't think anything is going to come of that.
What the Cardinals ARE likely to do is pursue frontline pitching. Carpenter is expected back in the second half, which will provide a boost, but I think the organization would be willing to entertain a rental.
CC Sabathia, perhaps? Madddux? Millwood?
Adding a solid starter to a mix that would include Wainwright, Carpenter, Wellemeyer (who has embraced the tutelage of Dave Duncan), and Lohse, and the Cardinals can stick for the long haul. There's plenty of trade fodder, which includes Chris Duncan, Anthony Reyes, Bryan Anderson, a slew of outfield prospects and relief types.
Posted by: Devlsh | May 31, 2008 at 04:29 PM
Yep, I agree. Trade Bait Includes all that you mentioned: Chris Duncan, Anthony Reyes, Bryan Anderson.
Pitching:
But, also others to consider trading are Braden Looper, Brad Thompson, or Jason Isringhausen once mentally healthy. Obviously you don't trade all these guys but, I'm just throwing out names that could be used as trade bait.
I would be most reluctant to trading Reyes because he is young and still might turn it around (Dan Haren's Name Rings a bell)
Looper would make a great trade chip. He is putting up decent numbers but, we won't need him once either Carp, Clement, or even Thompson gets healthy. To top everything off he is a free agent at the end of this season. Excellent trade chip if you ask me.
Outfield:
Also, we're developing lots of young outfielders as well such as Cody Hearther, Colby Rasmus, and Joe Mather. I prefer not to trade any of these guys but, they are definitely trading chips.
Anyone who says that we don't have trading chips doesn't really know the Cardinals farm system. It didn't use to be very deep but, that has changed in the recent years.
Posted by: Birds on Da Bat | May 31, 2008 at 05:33 PM
Anyone else been hearing that Rasmus wants out? I heard a story that his brother got on viva el birdos and started bashing the cards and saying they were ruining his career because they were changing the way he hits. Anyway...long story short, he said his brother wants out, and his numbers aren't looking too good last I checked.
Absolutely none of that may be true...but my source is usually reliable. Anyone here get on Viva a lot?
Posted by: Aduncaroo | May 31, 2008 at 08:32 PM
Yeah, the Rasmus issue was much ado about nothing. It was one of Rasmus younger brothers (high school or younger) using his father's account and spouting off. Rasmus and his father both apologized for it, and said there wasn't any validity to it.
Posted by: Devlsh | May 31, 2008 at 11:46 PM
Makes you wonder how a high school kid got the information if it wasn't what he was hearing from his brother/father...but who knows. Hope his numbers get better than they have been though, he is too good.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | June 01, 2008 at 05:06 PM
FYI...
The Rasmus saga was not carried out on VEB.
It happened at scout.com's Cards website, The Birdhouse, where Mr. Rasmus is a regular contributor...as are the family members of many other Cardinals prospects.
www.thestlcardinals.com
Posted by: easton714 | June 02, 2008 at 07:37 AM
Adam Kennedy had a good spring but he has not carried it over to the season. Id love to see an upgrade at second base. I don't like the Roberts matchup for a trade. Roberts is good, but I believe he is slightly overrated and the Orioles want way too much for him. The man I would be willing to pay alot for is Dan Uggla. I don't know if the Marlins would trade him or not but he is arguably their best hitter, behind Hanley Ramirez. An article came out recently saying that despite the Marlins locking up some of their younger, good players that they may not try to lock up Uggla with a new contract. If that is true, that's a sign that they would maybe be willing to trade him. I would at least just check on the situation if I was John M. Izturis has been bettter than expected but an upgrade there wouldn't be bad either. Im just not sure what shortstops would be available? One that comes to my mind because hes a veteran who can play D, occasionally hits, and would probably be pretty cheap to get would be Omar Viquel. We'll just have to see what happens I guess.
Posted by: JP | June 02, 2008 at 08:54 AM
Thanks for the info easton. Can you verify that it was his highschool brother, and that none of it was true, and they apologized, or do you think there was some validity to it?
Posted by: Aduncaroo | June 02, 2008 at 12:50 PM
Tony Rasmus apologized profusely and then went back and deleted all of the negative comments. He did not specifically refer to a high school brother, but just "family".
Tony (and the family of many other prospects) are respected, regular contributors to the Scout.com Birdhouse.
FYI...Tony predicted before the season even started that Colby wouldn't hit much more than .200 this year, that his power would be way down, and that the Front Office told him (basically) that he would not play in the Majors this year (which crushed Colby, I think). The discussions as to "why" have been ongoing since before Spring Training.
I told him then that he was crazy on all accounts and that Colby would be up before the ASB Jay Bruce-style, but so far he has been completely right.
If the Cards outfield weren't performing so well without him, I would be much more worried about the situation. In the meantime, it looks like he has found his stroke the last few weeks.
Let's hope it continues!!
Posted by: easton714 | June 02, 2008 at 01:59 PM
Good information easton. Even as a Cubs fan, you hate to hear about that, and I wish him all the best. Well, kind of anyway...
Pretty weird, but I guess I'll just chalk it up to a weird occurrence unless it happened again or something. Did he say why he didn't think Colby would hit?
Posted by: Aduncaroo | June 02, 2008 at 11:55 PM
I would love to see them to try and trade for Jack Wilson. I think he would be a huge upgrade. I would also like to see Colby and not Mather right now.
Posted by: Rehab's for quitters | June 13, 2008 at 09:23 AM