Stark's Latest: Griffey, Daniel Cabrera, Lidge

In re D-Cab, isn't the cat out of the bag as far as looking to a pitcher's peripherals rather than just ERA to judge performance? Are there really any teams left that would be hoodwinked by his ERA and make a trade without sending advance scouts and looking at all his numbers? On the flip side, if a guy had a 1.00 WHIP and 4:1 K:BB over 12 starts, but a record of 3-6 with a 4.80 ERA and a BABIP of .380, would a team really shy away because of his traditional stats?

I dunno, I dunno...

At the beginning of the year, I was praying that Cabrera would start out hot so that we could trade him to some sucker still starstruck by his incredible arm; never mind his inability to throw a strike.

Well...the first part has come to pass. Dude is sizzling. Problem is, he's been TOO good and now I'm wondering if he hasn't actually turned the corner.

After last night's complete game, Cabrera- still just 26- is 3-1 with a 3.54 ERA. More importantly, he's reeled off six straight quality starts and, if you ignore a flashback-inducing 7 BB game mixed in amongst the six, his K:BB ratio over the span (now five games) would be 25:8. That one off game- still a quality start, since he only gave up 2 runs- can be dismissed as anomalous since it was also the lone game of the group in which is was both cold and pouring down rain. Is that a weak excuse? Probably, but when you've been waiting on a guy for years and suddenly there's new hope, it's easy to get caught up in the optimism. And I'm sure it IS difficult to throw strikes when the ball is all slippery and your fingers are frostbitten (righteous anger mixed with a healthy dose of sarcasm here).

Anyway, now I'm confused. I don't want to miss out on the chance to fleece some team and unload the game's wildest pitcher in '07 and a constant source of frustration, while his value is inflated and we can actually get something of value back...but now I'm worried that he's for real and we'll be giving away PRECISELY the player we've been waiting for him to become. I see him in a Tigers or Phillies uniform, throwing 200 innings with an ERA under 3.00. My head is spinning! How is this possible; its DANIEL CABRERA! Is this what the Rays fans feel like when they watch Edwin Jackson throw a shutout?!

I guess it comes down to what we can get for DCab. If it's just some crappy second tier prospects who'll never see a MLB game unless it's on TV or from the stands, then we should hang on to him. If we can get a legit prospect or two with some real upside...Andy's got my blessing.

I think.

Royals shop Gil Meche?!?!

lol

All credibility lost with that statement.

They signed him 18 months ago to a 5 year, $55 million deal and were chastised by everyone in baseball. Few teams are going to pick that up.

Not only that, this supposed gluttony of pitching is the only thing keeping the Royals even close in the AL Central - 2.5 games out in May. No one expects the Royals to actually compete for the title...but as of right now they're still in it.

Finally, Meche is a good guy and has emerged as a solid mentor for these other pitchers. Trading him would not only be nearly impossible but also ignorant.

Otis,

Did you just infer trading Meche would be ill advised in part because he's a nice guy?

lol

All credibility lost with that statement

"But who is going to overpay for a young starter with questionable peripherals, questionable track-record and only moderate success this year so far?"

Sounds slightly similar to another Orioles pitcher that was moved recently

Sesshomaru,

God love ya, I hope you're right! Not sure if I'd go so far as to call DC an ace, but if he can keep stringing together quality starts and put up a full season of No. 2 type stats, I'll be thrilled.

As for trading him, I'm not AS averse to it as you are, but I agree it doesn't make much sense after waiting so long. More importantly, I just don't think he'd bring enough in return. After some of the years Cabrera has had, it's going to take a while before he makes believers of anyone aside from the die-hard O's fans; it's unrealistic to think that the reward for trading him this year would match the risk of missing out on his continued development. Maybe this recent streak is for real. If we trade him for a couple AAAA types, we're screwed. On the other hand, if we keep him and this streak is a fluke, well, what are we really missing out on. It's only a question worth asking IF someone offers something legit. I'm not talking Jay Bruce legit, but...use your imagination. A solid B-level prospect somewhere in the Top 100, but outside of the Top 20-25. Can't see that happening.

As far as trading starting pitching? There I think we disagree. You brought up Guthrie and I think it's possible he could bring a solid return in a weak market (particularly weak if the A's continue to contend- no Blanton or Harden). Guthrie has No. 2 or 3 type stuff- near-frontline- and is under team control until 2013, so he could be tempting despite fairly pedestrian numbers. Perhaps his strongest attribute is consistency. In six of the seven games he's pitched SINCE Opening Day, Guthrie has given up 3 runs or fewer and gone 6-7 innings (well, another was 5.2, but...). Indeed, his numbers from one game to the next are strikingly similar and that's WITH the weight of being the team's de facto ace- something he is surely NOT. Going up against every opponents' own ace each time out...has to be daunting and have some psychological effect.

More to the point from the O's end, Guthrie is turning 29 this year and doesn't quite fit into McPhail's whole rebuilding plan. I think he's a prime candidate to be moved. Furthermore, I might consider trading Brian Burres as well. There's gotta be a market for a 27 Y.O. southpaw with a 3.19 ERA, even IF those pesky peripheral don't hold up to intense scrutiny. Burres, like Guthrie, is under control through 2012 and, on the cheap, has allowed 0, 0, 1, 3, and 3 runs in five of his six starts. Granted, his stuff is average at best and his K:BB ratio and .254 BAA fail the smell test, but...like I said, he's a lefty in a weak market who has managed to hold opponents' offenses in check.

I could see Burres paired with someone like Sherrill in a deal in order to extract a stud prospect from a contender. I know Philly is desperate for a solid LHRP. Give 'em Walker or Sherrill to fill the need and Burres for the rotation (or the 'pen for that matter) and see if they can't be convinced to part with Adrian Cardenas who is hopelessly blocked behind Utley but could become the O's everyday 2B in short time (once Roberts is dealt, of course). Sherrill is the prize, but at least with Burres, they can say they got a starting pitcher in the deal; that's often an important requirement for a team to part with a top prospect.

Anyway, just a thought. Let's hope DC keeps it up and the O's hang on tight.

GoBoSox420,

Did you just use infer instead of imply? Yes! By golly you did!

All credibility lost with that statement

"Sesshomaru:

No...I inferred that he's a clubhouse leader for the pitching staff.

Why don't you look up 'mentor' before you post next time and ruin your credibility."

Otis

I wasn't the one talking about Gil Meche, so take the time to make sure the one you are taking a shot at is the one that actually made the post you are replying to before you ruin your credibility.

"If you ARE going to gauge Cabrera's recent string of success by his stats, though, I would at least urge you to throw out the numbers PRIOR to the streak of quality starts AND those stemming from the mud-bowl game. I think it would give you a more accurate picture of the pitcher we're defending here."

At least you admitted earlier that you're letting your optimism as a fan get the better of you. The idea that you'd call a Daniel Cabrera 7-walk start the "anomaly" out of a cherry-picked string of games is ludicrous. Based on your observation that "he's a different pitcher" we throw out years of very, very consistent history of control problems and totally re-evaluate a pitcher based on recent history -- not even all of his starts this season, but 5 out of the last 6 out of the 8 he's pitched. I mean come on, that's silly.

No, it's really not that silly. The pitcher we are seeing this year is nothing, not even a little bit like the pitcher that has failed miserably over his first four seasons. Kranitz has developed a trust relationship with Cabrera which is something no pitching coach before him was able to do. Cabrera trusts Kranitz and for the first time, he trusts his stuff. By "trust his stuff", I mean he is mixing change-ups into at bats as well as his new slider which is something he never did before now either. He has sacrificed a couple MPH for better fastball control and he throws strikes. He is completely confident out there this year and does not get rattled by anything anymore. He attacks with his fastball instead of trying to hit the corners. There are so many reasons outside of those numbers that make O's fans like me feel like he has turned the corner, but those of you who don't watch every one of his starts wouldn't know any of that. It's not just that he is pitching well, it's HOW he is doing it. It's all positive.

ive seen him pitch a few times, but the best ive ever seen cabrera pitch was at the wbc, granted he threw alot of pitches down the middle really hard. his mechanics were sound, and he didnt really have a hard time throwing strikes, he most likely needs a new place to call home. and speaking of the Ms, richie sexton is a absolute bitch

asm- That's completely fair; I can't say I blame you for being hesitant to jump on the Cabrera bandwagon after all of six games. That being said, I really don't think it's a matter of just picking and choosing in such a way as to accentuate the positives/eliminate the negatives (sing it with me now!)

The fact is that after two games to start the season- a period when a lot of pitchers are still shaking the rust off- Cabrera was rough, but since then, he's been consistently strong.

Not only is Sesshomaru right about needing to watch DC pitch, but the numbers SINCE then support the theory that he's finally 'gotten it,' and turned a corner. When Sess- that's what I call him- calculated Cabrera's WHIP and ERA, that was INCLUDING the 7 walk game that I feel is out of line with the rest, considering the horrid conditions. If you take that one out, they're even better. I understand how you'd perceive this as picking and choosing and to a certain extent, I suppose you're right; however, anyone who saw that game knows that it was hardly representative of typical baseball weather and that it's worth asking whether that- and not a return to Cabrera's pre-'08 form- may have been to blame. The beauty of all of this is that we'll see who's right, but I would argue that it's far more disingenuous to use the guy's season stats to support the assumption that his success is a fluke, when the bulk of his work- and more importantly ALL of his work after a clearly defined point- points in another direction.

Again, I can't blame you for wanting to see more before believing. Hell, I'm not entirely convinced! I just don't think it's fair to dismiss the possibility based on skewed stats.

.213 BABIP taken by itself as an end all stat is ill-advised. If you consider that he's added a sinker and is pitching to contact now it changes things. Even without those adjustments he's had strong groundball tendencies. Right now he's on a pretty atypical groundball rate for him.

Okay, I'll put it this way: You've convinced me to the extent that I'll now go pick him up in my AL fantasy league, but I won't be starting him against any decent offenses until I see a little more progress. However, assuming you're right and he's near-ace caliber from here on out, I'll credit you for the tip when I win the league. Fair?

“The fact is that after two games to start the season- a period when a lot of pitchers are still shaking the rust off- Cabrera was rough, but since then, he's been consistently strong.”

Guys, really ~ be cautious. Pick him up for sure, and hope to ride the wave; but… Well, heres the thing; he actually went through a similar stretch to start the year last year ~ just without the luck…

Over the first 6 in 2007:
38.0 IP / 37 H / 2.0 K/BB / 2 HR / 4 HBP / 3 WP /.330 BAbip / 59% Strike
Now, taking the last 6 starts you told us to look at:
43.3 IP / 29 H / 1.8 K/BB / 2 HR / 4 HBP / 3 WP /.221 BAbip / 61% Strike

Much like last year, he wont be able to keep his current extremely low 11% LD% where it is (it was 11% in those 6 in 07 as well); and it will probably end up in the 17% range if low and 19-20% range if normal. As BaseMonkey mentioned, his GB% is outside his normal; and although its something that he can actually change, his FB% is fairly consistent with his track-record so its probably more likely the LD% decrease comes from the GBs he’s inducing. Once the LD% normalizes, the BAbip will certainly rise with it.

Now, again taking the first two games out, we see these rates:
BAbip = .220 (which as we know is not something which can reasonably be sustained)
3.11 ~ BB per 9 (AL-Avg last year was 3.3 ~ lower the better, elite being under 2.0)
1.8 ~ K to BB (AL-Avg last year was 2.0 ~ higher the better, elite generally over 3.0)
5.6 ~ K per 9 (AL-Avg was 6.6, elite being over 8)

Then, if you actually take a look at his career splits, you will see a bit of a trend:
.249/.363/.374/.737 ~ April (.223/.335/.388/.724 in 08)
.224/.324/.338/.662 ~ May (.164/.217/.182/.398 so far in 08)
.235/.333/.388/.722 ~ June
.252/.367/.385/.752 ~ July
.264/.366/.427/.794 ~ August
.266/.366/.368/.734 ~ Sept

Lastly, guys are only hitting .175 off him with RISP and he currently holds a 79% LOB rate. That’s rather extreme, and even the best pitchers in the game cant keep a percentage like that up. Generally pitchers will be in the 70% range, with a 75% pretty much being tops. Anything over that and you can figure the ERA is probably artificially low…

So, even without those first two games we see a pitcher who is in the AL-Average range outside of some luck. His rates just don’t really reflect the results he has seen, and although its possible he turned a corner, there is nothing but that probably artificially low WHIP/ERA showing it. I hope I’m wrong, I cant stand NY/Bos/Tor and would like to see the O’s rebuild the team properly and overtake them. And I haven’t seen him pitch all his games, that’s something you all mentioned. But, he really has a recognizable track-record like this to start the prior years before seeing regression. Add it all together and that’s some rather large roadblocks for him to overcome if he is to pitch like a true top-of-rotation guy from here on out…

This thread should've been aborted.