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« Thome's '09 Option | Main | Molony's Latest: Sabathia, Teixeira, Lewis »
According to Bill Plunkett of the L.A. Daily News, Angels GM Tony Reagins has no intention of breaking from Bill Stoneman's model. Reagins does not intend to trade young players in a midseason blockbuster. Plunkett makes a good point in that the Halos would be worse off if they'd pulled the trigger on the rumored Miguel Cabrera deal.
The Angels expect to fix their offensive woes with in-house options. The team ranks 12th of 14 in the league in OBP and 9th in SLG. Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr., Erick Aybar, and Jeff Mathis has been easy outs this year. It might make sense to start working in Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits regularly.
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is this post a test??? reggie willits is currently hitting .172
Posted by: mr utley | June 26, 2008 at 09:10 AM
Really? I have his career OBP at .384. I don't think 72 plate appearances should erase the 576 that came before them.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 26, 2008 at 09:20 AM
If the alcoholics anonymous definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result, maybe they need to start drinking in Anaheim.
As much as they've benefited by taking Dallas McPherson, Erick Aybar and Jeff Mathis off the table when they had a ton of value, MAYBE they should consider bringing in a bat.
Posted by: CFosterKane | June 26, 2008 at 09:39 AM
Angels need to score runs, Angels need runners on base to score runs, GMJ and G. Anderson don't get on base nearly as much as Willits. Time for someone to sit and let Willits improve on his small sample size Avg.
Posted by: pageian | June 26, 2008 at 09:42 AM
When you have no intention of giving a prospect a job or having blocked in multiple ways there is really nothing to gain by holding on to him.
Either open up a slot for the guy or move him.
Unlike the Tigers deal the Angels have plenty of prospects that they really wouldn't miss. Its not like they'd be cleaning out their system to pick up a bat.
And like has been already menitoned keeping the ones under Stoneman really did nothing for them other then kill the prospects value and stunt their development.
Posted by: schellis | June 26, 2008 at 09:58 AM
“Really? I have his career OBP at .384. I don't think 72 plate appearances should erase the 576 that came before them.”
Anything he can do, you can do better; you can do anything better then him!
See Tim, over the last 365 Days (343 PA, more than half his career) he is hitting a whopping .238/.344/.280/.624. Oh, and with 10 SB but 6 CS. He was really, really, really hot in the first half of 2007; since then they might have been better of using a lifesize Bade Ruth Cardboard Cutout at the plate…
Besides, wasn’t the teams problem OBP and SLG? How would slightly helping one while destroying the other help? Even if he posted a .380 OBP, he cant make it past 1st base on his on own (see the constant 300 or lower SLG) which means the rest of the team would have to simultaneously get much, much better to compensate for his short-comings…
Having a guy that will take a Walk, and every so often get really lucky and manage a single, while providing basically nothing else, well… The real problem with the top of the lineup comes from the fact that Kendrick and Figgins have both been hurt, not because they haven’t been playing Willits…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | June 26, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Didn't say Willits would fix their lineup. Said he deserved to play over Anderson and GMJ. He would've already if not for the salary diff. Anderson has a .287 OBP. I'd rather have the .350 OBP and no power than the .290 OBP and slightly more but still very little power. OBP adds more to an offense than SLG, this is proven.
The Angels' problem is four automatic outs in every lineup.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 26, 2008 at 10:56 AM
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 26, 2008 at 10:58 AM
schellis ... do you follow the Angels? They happen to let their young guys play. Just look at the team and see how many players are home grown talents. I have also included their age.
C: Mathis (25)/Napoli (26)
1B: Kotchman (25)
2B: Kendrick (24)
SS: Aybar (24)
3B: Figgins (30)
OF: Willits (27)
Pitchers: Lackey (29) /Weaver (25) /Shields (32) /Rodriguez (26) /Santana (25) /Saunders (27)
Those are the major players. There are back-ups of course + young kids who have received a lot of AB's filling in for injuries this year.
I think the kids are getting plenty of playing time. Although I would like to see GA sit more.
Posted by: bjsguess | June 26, 2008 at 11:30 AM
i hear there's this one DH available for the league minimum. He's a free agent so it wouldn't cost any players to get him, too. i heard he hits pretty hard and gets on base a lot, to the tune of a .444 OBP.
Posted by: mooks | June 26, 2008 at 12:11 PM
oh wait, he's a 'clubhouse cancer'. haha, my bad. i guess it's better to have a 'fun' clubhouse get swept by the red sox again then it is to win a freakin' baseball game.
Posted by: mooks | June 26, 2008 at 12:12 PM
sorry for the triple post, but man, it's just disgustingly irresponsible to play garret anderson or gary matthews in the DH spot on a contending team when there are much better options available. what is going on here? a .287 OBP? really?
Posted by: mooks | June 26, 2008 at 12:21 PM
Has anyone been paying attention? The Angels are 48-31 and have the best road record in baseball and the third best record overall. They score enough runs to win, play in a park that isn't conducive to big power numbers and let the pitching and defense do the talking
"Angels need to score runs, Angels need runners on base to score runs, GMJ and G. Anderson don't get on base nearly as much as Willits. Time for someone to sit and let Willits improve on his small sample size Avg."
I like Reggie. Every Angel fan likes Reggie. The problem is, Reggie is Juan Pierre with more walks, less hits, a better arm and less power (if that is possible). The Angel lineup is already loaded with speed, whether it is raw basestealing with Figgins, Hunter, Kendrick and Aybar/Izturis or smart baserunning and extra-base speed like Anderson, Guerrero, Napoli/Mathis, etc. Everyone in the lineup and on the bench can run except Kotchman and Rivera (who could run before he broke his leg). The other problem is that the bat never gets off Reggie's shoulder, even on an 88 mph fastball down Broadway.
I understand that Anderson has been in a slump for the last month, but he still has the ability to drive the ball and has been hitting a ton of sharp outs. His BAbip for the last 28 days is .211 despite only 12 K's in that time. Same problem Maicer Izturis was having.
As for GMJ, the opposite is true. He is hitting .311 the last 28 days after a protracted slump where his BA dipped to .219, yet he was still driving in all kinds of clutch runs.
The problem with dumping either of them for Willits is that it is one less guy in the line up that the pitcher has to be scared of throwing a first pitch strike to, because it may well end up in the stands or off the wall.
"The Angels' problem is four automatic outs in every lineup."
Where do you get this idea? First, I really don't know where you are finding Aybar such a problem. So what if he doesn't walk, he has never walked. He hits the ball hard and plays game-changing defense. Second, the Mathis/Napoli platoon has not been hitting for a high average, but have you seen their power numbers? Despite a damn near 50/50 split, Napoli has hit 11 HR. Oh, and both play excellent defense.
Oh, and has anyone here looked at GA's clutch stats? He is hitting over .300 with RISP, Men On, 2 out RISP and Late and Close. Basically, his weakness has been with the bases empty, which is where a guy like him is least valuable to the team. Figgins is the one who should be getting on base. Anderson should be protecting Guerrero.
Posted by: AA | June 26, 2008 at 01:02 PM
Tim,
Ok, so based off the article you provided we see this using Willits last 365day stats (.344 OBP / .280 SLG) and Anderson in 2008 (.287 OBP / .375 SLG); spread over 140G:
Hit1 ~ Willits + 11.48 R
Hit2 ~ Willits + 1.26 R
Hit3 ~ Willits + 4.62 R
Hit4 ~ Anderson + 6.72 R
Hit5 ~ Willits + 2.8 R
Hit6 ~ Anderson + 5.74 R
Hit7 ~ Anderson + 3.22 R
Hit8 ~ Anderson +1.54 R
Hit9 ~ Willits + 13.16 R
...So, you have the two within about 5 Runs of eachother over 140 Games in all but the Leadoff spot (where Figgins is) or the 9 hole. Unless you just really wanted to move your LF down to slightly improve your #9 hitter a bit, seems a pointless change to make ~ might as well go with Anderson and hope he breaks out of the funk like he did in the second half last year (.361 OBP / .530 SLG after .286 OBP / .424 SLG in 1st) then play the 28 YO who’s entire success is dependant on the amount of infield singles he manages to beat out or find the hole with… I mean, 14 of his 148 career hits are infield singles, another 10 are Bunt-Hits… This year, 4 of his 10 hits have been to the infield!
Oh, and Matthews lines look like this vs Willits (again 140G)
+0.95R advantage Matthews
+7.88R advantage Matthews
+4.09R advantage Matthews
+13.08R advantage Matthews
+6.40R advantage Matthews
+10.86R advantage Matthews
+9.27R advantage Matthews
+6.19R advantage Matthews
-2.42R advantage Willits
…Matthews is easily the superior player there, despite his poor looking 2008 line… (.318 OBP and .371 SLG)
And I just wanted to add that I hate Anderson and Matthews, and feel both are pointless on this club ~ but Willits is still worse with his deer-in-a-headlight approach (he swings at only 33% of the pitches he sees, much lower than even Dunn or Cust who are waiting for one to put over the wall) and the 10-hop-infield-grounder results he provides on the off chance he makes contract…
(To give you an idea on the Swing%, Fukudome is at about 41%, Cust about 36%, Dunn 41%, Pujols is about 40% with most hitters around 50% ~ this year only Luis Castillo, with his 32%, has a lower rate among starters.)
Recap ~ Willits is a miserable ML player…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | June 26, 2008 at 01:26 PM
Wait...some combination of Willits and Rivera is the answer?! Huh????!!!!
Posted by: milehigh78 | June 26, 2008 at 01:55 PM
LAAA: Scored 339 runs, Allowed 321 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 41-38
OAK: Scored 347 runs, Allowed 285 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 45-32
So the A's score more runs and allow fewer runs, yet somehow they are 6 games behind the Angels???
This, my friends, is called PURE LUCK. Luck doesnt last though, the Angels are playing extremely above their talent level, they are getting smashed a lot and winning a lot of 1 run games. Unless something happens (like a Bonds aquisition) they are primed for a second half collapse.
Posted by: Athletic Domination | June 26, 2008 at 03:06 PM
"And I just wanted to add that I hate Anderson and Matthews, and feel both are pointless on this club"
You hate Anderson? The guy holds the vast majority of the important hitting records for the Angels. One can debate Matthews all day, but Anderson? You are out of your f'ing gourd. You seem to forget when he signed his extension just after the start of the 2004 season, he was coming off a year where he hit 49 2B, 29 HR, 116 RBI (the 4th of 4 straight with over 115), and lets not forget that OPS+ of 131, and did so despite practically zero lineup protection because of injury to Troy Glaus. It was that year where he was injured for the first time in his career and missed all of May and parts of April and June. Oh, and like you said, we shouldn't forget that Anderson was arguably the best player in baseball, and definately the best on the Angels in the second half of last year, and has been a second half player his whole career.
But go ahead, keep "hating" Anderson for being such a crap player.
"This, my friends, is called PURE LUCK."
No, its called great pitching and enough offense to get them the lead.
"the Angels are playing extremely above their talent level, they are getting smashed a lot and winning a lot of 1 run games."
Smashed? A few blow outs that every team faces? 1 run games? Of course they win 1 run games. They have Shields, Arredondo and K-Rod.
If anything, this team has been playing BELOW its talent level, given that Guerrero had the worst first 2 months of his career and both Figgins and Kendrick missed significant time with injury, while Napoli's OBP went into the tank because he f'ed up his swing. Hell, they have lost a few very close games as well that could easily have gone the other way. Sometimes Sabermetrics doesn't mean a thing.
Posted by: AA | June 26, 2008 at 03:55 PM
"No, its called great pitching and enough offense to get them the lead."
Huh? No, its called living on the edge of the lucky side of the coin. It could so easily be very different.
As of right now, the A's have been unlucky as declared by the Pythagorean winning percentage, which is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed.
Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by
(Runs Scored)^1.83 divided by
(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83
The traditional formula uses an exponent of two, but this has proven to be a little more accurate.
The Angels have a 7 (SEVEN!) game difference between reality and pythagorean, this is nearly unheard of and might be an all-time best if they continue on like this.
Sorry but the Angels are not as good as the A's this year when it comes to scoring runs and giving up runs.
Posted by: Athletic Domination | June 26, 2008 at 04:13 PM
"Sorry but the Angels are not as good as the A's this year when it comes to scoring runs and giving up runs."
And which team is 5 games down in the standings? It doesn't matter how many runs you score or give up, it matters when you do that. It doesn't matter if you score a ton of runs every other game and then don't in the others. You can score 20 in one, 0 in the other, average 10 runs a game and end up a .500 baseball team, even if you only give up 1 run a game, every game.
Sorry, but the A's are not nearly as consistent as the Angels.
Posted by: AA | June 26, 2008 at 04:31 PM
It's pretty obvious the Angels are playing over their heads. And consistency? Joe Morgan? Baseball isn't like most other sports where you can just turn it on whenever you want. I'd like to hit a 3 run HR right now, but you can't just do it at will.
Of course the actual wins and losses is what matters at the end of the day, but over the second half of the season, *IF* the Angels play the same way they have been, then they aren't going to finish well. Lackey and Figgens back with Vlad regressing back to normal means the team will play better though. Good club with everyone healthy, but it's pretty obvious that they have been lucky and they could really, really use another bat.
Posted by: Victor | June 26, 2008 at 06:14 PM
"It's pretty obvious the Angels are playing over their heads. And consistency? Joe Morgan? Baseball isn't like most other sports where you can just turn it on whenever you want."
Again, how about taking a look at their gamelogs over at BR? They took a few slaughterings that heavily skew their numbers, it really isn't difficult to get that.
"Good club with everyone healthy, but it's pretty obvious that they have been lucky and they could really, really use another bat."
Another bat? They already have too many bats in the lineup. Much of their hitting problems resulted from games where they had Sean Rodriguez and Brandon Wood in the lineup at the same time, two rookies who really did prove to be essentially automatic outs, though Rodriguez did play game changing defense. Further, Vlad hitting .250 was a major problem, one that has gone away with his knee issues. Hunter is performing exactly how he was expected to with an OBP well above his career average. Kotchman has an even more microscopic K rate than last year. This keeps going on.
Posted by: AA | June 26, 2008 at 06:35 PM
"Good club with everyone healthy, but it's pretty obvious that they have been lucky and they could really, really use another bat."
Now this, this here makes sense. But hey we are talking with Angels fans here sooooo you probably already know the drill, smh.
"Another bat? They already have too many bats in the lineup" - lol
Posted by: Athletic Domination | June 26, 2008 at 06:47 PM
Also: is "game changing defense" the polished version of the "gritty hustle" turd?
AA dont stop please, Im laughing my butt off over here!
Posted by: Athletic Domination | June 26, 2008 at 06:49 PM
"Also: is "game changing defense" the polished version of the "gritty hustle" turd?"
No, moron, it is these numbers for those enraptured with them who prey to the Billy's, Beane and James, every night.
Rodriguez' FP .991
LGFP .987
SR's RF 5.52
LG RF 4.62
SR's RF9in 5.73
LG RF9in 5.07
No question the guy's bat isn't ML ready, but his glove most definately plays in the big leagues.
Oh, and I never got an answer from you on who is leading the AL West by 5 games.
Posted by: AA | June 26, 2008 at 07:36 PM
Athletic Domination:
Pythag's prediction one's record is somewhat accurate, but it does not take other things into account (slumps, injuries, etc...).
Last year, the Mariners were lucky according to Pythag (they had almost no injuries, and their pitching was god awful).
However, with the Angels the pythag's prediction did not take into account that Kendrick, Figgins, Maicer, and Aybar were hurt and that their offense was replaced by Wood and Rodriguez (both of whom where hitting around .100avg).
Kendrick and Figgins were hitting over .300 and Figgins OBP was over .400. Also, Vladimir was going thru a mini slump (now he's back on track).
You also have to take into account that Lackey replaced Aidenhart/Moseley, both of whom had an ERA over 9.00 combined and pitched horribly bad.
If you take those things into account you will see that the RS/RA will improve for the Angels, as well as their pythags.
Posted by: SlaytheA's | June 26, 2008 at 08:25 PM
This year is somewhat similar to last year. Depth has alot to do with staying afloat (that is basically what separates the Angels from the A's).
When the Angels had a rash of injuries this year and last year, they have held serve.
Greg Smith, and Eveland have played a little above their heads. once they settle to their means, i want to see how they'll perform (Weaver in his first year was unhittable).
The second half of the year will show what your rookies are made of that's for sure.
Posted by: SlaytheA's | June 26, 2008 at 08:31 PM
I meant to say that Wood, Rodriguez, and Brown replaced Kendrick, Aybar, Figgins, and Maicer.
God those rookies played horrid.
Posted by: SlaytheA's | June 26, 2008 at 08:32 PM
AA, I would advise you not to say I’m “out of (my) f'ing gourd” when you don’t know why I hate him and cant prove his worth to the team right now (or the last three years for that matter).
Anderson is, and always has been, a rather LgAvg hitter ~ we know that from his OPS+ which were sub-100 leading up to his peak, barley over 100 during the 3 years to start his peak, peaked over 2 years then went back to a tad over for one and below again. That 2005 contract was ill-advised, he wasn’t productive enough of a player to warrant such a commitment and its no secrete that his Slight-power, Little-Speed, no-patience makeup doesn’t age well (as the results over the last 4+ years has shown). Pointing to the weakness of the rest of the Angels around him over the years isnt going to change that considering they have generally been a team without true hitters and more on the small-ball side of things. If a guy like Anderson goes down as one of the best Angels to ever play the game, which he will, it’s actually a sad, sad thing… I mean a career 104 OPS+ guy is not an all-time great when he isnt a slick-fielding middle-infielder…
Now, with that said you are actually arguing the same thing as I though, and that seems to be if Anderson is here then he should play ~ but that doesn’t mean he should be here, esp not on a team with Vlad, Matthews, Hunter and about 5 kids who could DH or play LF… Willits sucks, (and I mean really, really, really sucks ~ once pitchers realized his approach was “don’t swing the bat, let them make a mistake” and that he couldn’t put one outside the infield when they did make a mistake, it was over for him) and Anderson is a huge sunk contract if he doesn’t play ~ as we learned off the site Time provided, Anderson is still arguably better than Willits despite how bad GA has been doing this year... But considering none of the other kids are stepping it up, and neither he nor Vlad can seemingly go 2-3 days without one off, he might as well be in the lineup and pray he kicks in gear in the second half again…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | June 26, 2008 at 09:22 PM
ill make my post quick. if im an angels fan i hate my gm. the talent is there, the owner spends money, yet they have no offense. look at brandon wood, kendry morales, and whoever else used to be a big time prospect. they could have traded those guys and legitimately had a chance at a world series the last few years. GO GET A POWER HITTER. oh, and make sure hes not an outfielder
Posted by: Joelcards | June 26, 2008 at 10:37 PM
"AA, I would advise you not to say I’m “out of (my) f'ing gourd” when you don’t know why I hate him and cant prove his worth to the team right now (or the last three years for that matter)."
Really? Have you looked at his second half from last year? Apparently not, so here is the line.
.305 .361 .530
And that was coming off a serious hip injury.
It sucks that injuries happen, but you absolutely ignore the production Anderson has given the Angels because you are enslaved by the numbers. Lets compare a random year with your dream player Adam Dunn and Anderson, given that they are both left fielders (well, only one actually fields his position).
Dunn had an OPS+ of 146 in 2004 (his best OPS+ year) and had 105 runs and 102 RBI. Meanwhile, in 2000, Anderson had a mediocre OPS+ of 103 yet he scord 92 runs while driving in 117. Guess who was more productive when you add those two together, despite the fact that Dunn hit significantly more home runs?
"and neither he nor Vlad can seemingly go 2-3 days without one off"
Now you're just making crap up. Other than Vlad missing an interleague game this week because of the flu, he has only missed 7 of their 79 games this year. Anderson has missed even fewer, with some coming from games where they didn't have a DH.
Posted by: AA | June 27, 2008 at 04:12 PM
AA, you seem to take oblivious to new levels man…
1) “Really? Have you looked at his second half from last year? Apparently not, so here is the line.”
…Considering I was the one who first mentioned it I would have to say yes, yes I guess I have seen it… 1/2 year of production Raul Ibanez production doesn’t erase the fact that he hit like Jim Abbott in the first half though, not sure how you can feel otherwise…
2) Again with your Dunn vs Anderson obsession? Ok, we’ll do it again:
Dunn @27 ~ .386/.554/.940 / 136 OPS+ / 101 R, 106 RBI, 208 combined
G. A. @27 ~ .336/.469/.805 / 104 OPS+ / 88 R, 80 RBI, 168 combined
Dunn = +.050/+.085/+135 / +032 OPS+ / +13 R, +26 RBI, +40 combined…
Dunn @26 ~ .365/.490/.855 / 114 OPS+ / 99 R, 92 RBI, 191 combined
G. A. @26 ~ .325/.455/.780 / 99 OPS+ / 62 R, 79 RBI, 141 combined
Dunn = +.040/+.035/+.075 / +015 OPS+ / +37 R, +13 RBI, +50 combined
Dunn @25 ~ .387/.540/.927 / 141 OPS+ / 107 R, 101 RBI, 208 combined
G. A. @25 ~ .334/.409/.743 / 92 OPS+ / 76 R, 92 RBI, 168 combined
Dunn = +.053/+.131/+.184 / +049 OPS+ / +31 R, +9 RBI, +40 combined
Dunn @24 ~ .388/.569/.957 / 146 OPS+ / 105 R, 102 RBI, 209 combined
G. A. @24 ~ .314/.405/.719 / 82 OPS+ / 79 R, 72 RBI, 151 combined
Dunn = +.074/+.164/+.238 / +064 OPS+ / +26 R, +30 RBI, +58 combined
4 year total:
+.217 OBP / +.415 SLG / +.632 OPS / +160 OPS+ / +107 R, +78 RBI, +188 combined
4 year average:
+.054 OBP / +.104 SLG / +.158 OPS / +040 OPS+ / +27 R, +20 RBI, +47 combined
That sir, is kicking Andersons @ss in each and every way imaginable…
3) the “every 3 days off” thing was actually an exaggeration, but not much of one though ~ infact its true if you actually look at the numbers…
Guerrero = 52/79 starts in the field = 66% in field = 1/3 games as DH or bench
Anderson = 45/79 starts in the field = 57% in field = more than 1/3 as DH or bench
…I know they are pretty much a platoon for the DH and in the field otherwise, but they need it as much as using it as well. Shoot, from Mid-May till the end of the month they both actually were on a 2-field, 1-DH rotation…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | June 27, 2008 at 06:13 PM
"doesn’t erase the fact that he hit like Jim Abbott in the first half though"
He was hurt. BTW, most people say Abbott raked in BP and would probably have been able to hold his own in the NL.
"3) the “every 3 days off” thing was actually an exaggeration, but not much of one though ~ infact its true if you actually look at the numbers…
Guerrero = 52/79 starts in the field = 66% in field = 1/3 games as DH or bench
Anderson = 45/79 starts in the field = 57% in field = more than 1/3 as DH or bench"
DHing isn't a day off, sort of like Russell Martin playing third isn't a day off
Posted by: AA | June 27, 2008 at 06:48 PM