Cards Not Likely To Acquire Peavy

And then there were 3...

Any ideas what the Cubs have to offer for Peavy? Can't see the Pads being more interested in what the Cubs have than what the Braves or Dodgers have.

The Braves are too far from competing for amove like this to make sense. They would lose a number of prospects and probably Escobar as well. This move just wouldn't make any sense.

I don't think the Padres want Peavy in their division for the next 5 years.

The Cubs don't have the pieces necessary to make this deal.

So in my opinion, if it truly is down to these 3 teams, I would imagine that Peavy will remain a Padre at least until next years trade deadline.

Oh really citron ? Peavy and 45 million go a long way. If the Braves make this trade (and if they do it will be for significantly less than multiple top prospects and Escobar)and sign a pither and left fielder they will compete.

The Braves bullpen will be much better this year. The offense could be very good with the adition of a left fielder.

the cubs would have to unload the farm to get peavy and they wouldnt want marquis

theres no f-ing way in any universe that the pads would take marquis in ANY form of a peavy trade.

How did this get narrowed down to just 3 teams so fast? Last I knew it was 10 to 15 teams interested. No way the Cubs get Peavy...no chance at all.

If they don't resign Dempster(they will) I can see them making a run for him but there just aren't enough chips in the Cubs system to deal with the Padres despite the fact that San Diego is still a ways off from their young talent being MLB starter caliber ready.

You can almost bet that any trade the Cubs get involved in has the other team tossing Carlos Marmols name in the mix. Im just worried that trader Jim and his new 4 year deal may be tempted to deal Marmol and a Colvin together as the 2 big names in a 4 or 5 player package.

And can they please just unload Jason Dubois to anyone with half an interest in him? Seriously, if that guy was gonna make it he would have by now....I hate the term AAAA player, but if anyone would be deserving...its Jason Dubois.

I'm sure Padres fans are glad to know the Cubs will offer some "stop gaps" in exchange for Peavy.

That list of players you provided isn't all that attractive from the Padres perspective. Assume the Pads will net at least one top prospect and possibly two for a pitcher of Peavy's caliber.

"the cubs would have to unload the farm to get peavy and they wouldnt want marquis"

The truth is that the Cubs could definitely land Peavy, but it would take nearly everything they could possibly offer. Honestly if the Cubs were willing to do something along the lines of this: Josh Vitters, Jose Ceda, Tyler Colvin, Donald Veal and Mike Fontenot, surely the Cubs would easily be in the running for Peavy. Vitters is still a very good prospect, one of the best hitting prospects in the minors. Ceda seems to at the very least be a very good reliever, and he's a possible lockdown closer/heir to Hoffman. Colvin gives them a potentially quality lefty outfielder, Veal still has some potential although times running out, and Fontenot is a good 2B with a lot of time left under control. The Padres could still possibly look into Ryan Theriot, Wellington Castillo, Felix Pie and Tony Thomas. I definitely think the Cubs could be in the running, sort of like the Mets in the Santana talks. Everyone talks about how they don't have enough to get it done because they don't have that top notch young player to include in the trades, but in the end the other teams (Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers) aren't willing to give up what's needed and the Cubs sneak in and swoop him. I definitely think that if the Braves are only willing to give up one of Heyward, Hanson, Escobar, Schafer, Johnson and the Yankees aren't willing to give up both Hughes and Jackson, the Cubs could definitely be a possibility with a Vitters based package.

FIVE YEARS!

The Rays went from worst to first in ONE year. I'm not a Braves fan but to assume they won't compete again until Barack Obama is out of office is absurd.

They have a great core of very talented youngsters, money, and come from a winning tradition. I'd put money on them being very competitive in 09 and beyond that they have as good of a chance as anyone to win the NL East.

and the padres want who from the brewers?

please dont say jj hardy and weeks

it only took 10 years of last place

For those mentioning the Brewers..Peavy has a full no trade clause, HE has given 4 or 5 teams he was willing to waive it to go to, it is possible the Brewers are not on that list.

citron1616

Who in the world are you then? You seem to have some outlet of knowledge that the rest of us don't have....I'm serious, it's getting a little silly.

Citron... your an Idiot.

The Mets suck by the way. The Braves lost their top 3 starting pitchers and there best 2 relievers. What was the mets excuse ? Phillies are ok but its not the AL east. Youl be surprised.

The Braves could pull this off. It wouldn't make them a WS contender overnight, but it would help solidify their starting pitching. They have a fairly deep system to get this done.

I don't see Peavy going to the Dodgers due to the whole intra-division thing, but if it did, it would be a blockbuster. If I were the Padres, I'd want Kershaw, McDonald and maybe Hu, which would probably be too much for the Dodgers to go along.

Not likely last I checked means there is at least still a chance. Considering headlines in the off season read "Tampa Bay Rays not likely to be contenders". Just some food for thought.

and i would imagine for the astros to be in it, they would have to build a package around both pence and bourne. and then include talent after that.

If I were the Braves and I wanted to contend soon why not sign 2 of Burnett/Perez/Lowe? The Braves keep their young talent and strengthen the rotation.

2 of Burnett/Perez/Lowe + prospects > Jake Peavy

Citron,

The main options for the Braves right now are Peavy, Burnett, Dye, and Hampton.

What you're telling me is that you don't see the Braves being competitive in 09 w/ a roster looking like this?

1) Anderson/Schafer cf
2) Prado 2b
3) Jones 3b
4) Dye lf
5) McCann c
6) Francoeur rf
7) Kotchman 1b
8) Greene ss

1) Peavy
2) Burnett
3) Jurrjens
4) Hampton
5) Hanson

CL) Gonzalez
SU) Smoltz

How again wouldn't we compete? Anything better from Francoeur and Greene at all and we have the best lineup next to Chicago and LA top to bottom in the NL, and if LA gets rid of Martin we go ahead of them....I think I'll take a lineup where our #8 has 30 HR potential and our #7 can hit .300. Along w/ that, we'd have our 1st full-time decent clean up hitter for an entire year since back in the Galarraga/McGriff days.

Once again I ask, how doesn't that compete?

Even if we went w/ option list #2 which would be Peavy, Lowe, Ordonez we'd still be much better than this year given everyone stays healthy, but isn't that the case w/ every team?

Might want to check out the Rays roster and find out exactly how many #1 overall picks are major contributors. The Rays are littered with players that other teams could have had but passed. I can't believe we are even talking about this since it has been covered over and over again.

BTW - I used the Rays AS AN EXAMPLE. In case you didn't notice the Braves were far from the worst last year. My point was, if a team can from worst to 1st it's silly to say that an organization like the Braves won't be competitive for another 5 years.

"I mean any fan of the sport knows that injuries killed them in '08, not some terrible inferiority to the the rest of the league."

This is absolutely correct. The the problem is Hudson is still injured in 2009. He'll make a short appearance at best. And as much as I'd like to see them effective again, Smoltz and Glavine are still question marks.

Peavy is also an injury risk. He had elbow problems this season. If you look at articles about his mechanics, he's been described as "high risk, high reward" by Hardball Times. Chris O'Leary says Peavy is causing his elbow problems with his mechanics and the fact that he throws a hard slider. Based on what I've read about Peavy from people who know more about the subject than me, it really sounds like he's going to have a major injury before the contract is up.

peavy has averaged 210 innings over the last 6 years with no major injuries to his arm

Braves22,
If we trade for Peavy we wont get rid of more prospects for Dye when we could get Burrel or dunn in free agency. And your projected pitching rotation is leaving out Jorge Campillo and has Mike Hampton-seriously?

greene is an upgrade over escobar defensively

"greene is an upgrade over escobar defensively"

Hardball Times has Yunel over Khalil in both RZR and OOZ. The last time I checked, Fielding Bible had Yunel leading all major league shortstops in Plus/Minus with +20 something. Hardy was second with around +16. Yunel Escobar is an ELITE defensive SS.

Escobar is the Tulowitzki of this year. Elite defensively, but tragically unappreciated.

Any Peavy to the Cubs deal probably starts with Soto.

You know, the team for me that would make sense for Peavy to go is the Rangers. (even though hes scared of the AL, I understand why he wouldnt want to pitch in New York or Boston but how come every AL team?) The Rangers have a surplus in young possition players. I think, im not quite sure, but the Padres need a catcher and they got alot of major leauge ready young catchers. If the Rangers could get Peavy and maybe open their pockets more for a quality starter, Paul Byrd maybe, they'll have a good chance to win the division. They're offense is amazing so they could pass by with some bad pitching. A rotation of Peavy, Millwood, Padilla, Byrd would be above average.

Chinn 27: Are you Tony LaRussa??? The Cardinals want to build from within and for the long term...and don't want to make trades that will ravish the farm system like Jockety did. Also, realize that by 2011 Carpenter, Wainwright, Peavy, and Lohse would command a large chunk of the payroll. (around 50 mil or so I believe). That's quite a bit of money to be spoken for...especially when you take into consideration Carp may not return to his old form. Let me put it this way, by 2011 would you rather have 20 mil tied up in Peavy or have 20 mil extra to extend Pujols? Exactly...

mtzxc- I agree that the Cards probably shouldn't trade for Peavy, but saying Walt made a lot of farm-system killing trades? I can remember one not-so-great for the farm one... and even in that deal, one of the prospects going back was blocked in STL. Hmm, not sure.

Well obviously the Mulder for Haren, Calero, Barton deal is infamous...but I'm referring to the overall quality of the farm under Walt. Instead of developing and using internal players, TLR and Walt preferred to trade for older veterans and players from other teams in general. Walt is a great GM in his prime, he brought the Cards tons of success. But in his final year in St. Louis, it was clear that his techniques of dumpster diving and using veterans was not going to work for the future of the Cards. Since 2006, players such as Mike Maroth, Russell Branyan, Jose Vizcaino, Timo Perez, and Jorge Sosa wore the birds on the bat...not exactly his best of work.

Cubs get Peavy and Greene (we will take greene as a favor to them)

Padres get Pie, Vitters, Donaldson, Theriot, Marquis (contract paid fully;, he is a free player in his deal offsetting for Greene who padres are looking to just get rid of)

Why could the Padres do this deal? They get a very durable pitcher in Marquis with a paid contract. They get a shortstop in return that gets on base and can run, and stays healthy. And, finally, they get the centerfielder of their future in the raw Pie, a left handed speedster who would fill the vacancy on their roster left when Jim Edmonds didn't show any signs of having gas left in his tank last year. Vitters is a top prospect with a very high ceiling. Donaldson has a decent chance to be a good catcher. There is always a risk in every trade and I believe this deal could get done.

What do you think? This is just an opinion and probably a fantasy.

"Cubs get Peavy and Greene (we will take greene as a favor to them)

Padres get Pie, Vitters, Donaldson, Theriot, Marquis (contract paid fully;, he is a free player in his deal offsetting for Greene who padres are looking to just get rid of)"

Well first off, Josh Donaldson went to Oakland in the Harden deal, so I doubt the Cubs would be able to trade him again.

Also, I would expect the Padres to persue adding more young pitching, rather than a bunch of young position players. The Padres would likely demand Ceda in any deal, on top of what you said.

Well obviously if we included Soto or Marmol we would be the frontrunners. The Cubs could probably offer Soto, Ceda and Colvin and get the deal done. Or Marmol, Colvin, Tony Thomas and Donald Veal.

Too bad Soto and Marmol are 100% completely offlimits. As they should be.

I'm sure Ceda would be available for Peavy. The guy has a ceiling as a lockdown closer. You don't refuse to give up those kind of guys for elite starters.

Personally I would rather give up Pie, Vitters, Ceda, Theriot, Marquis, (or anyone else) for someone like Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford, Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Josh Hamilton, any other ideas?

The Cubs aren't going for Peavy - they can't afford him nor do they have the talent to get him. It's another example of the Cubs putting out the rumor so it looks like they're trying. They are happy with the choking team they have, it's clear from their comments that they don't think they need to do anything major. Well, wait 'till next Century I guess.

"uww1: Too bad none of those teams would trade any of the players you listed for that deal. Maybe Ordonez could be traded for a deal started around Soto, but I don't see any of the other players even on the block."

Are you serious? Soto and some for Magglio Ordonez? Really? We're talking about an elite catcher that hasn't even hit arbitration yet and a good RF with 3/48 left on his contract. Soto is not only worth more than Ordonez, as melonis rex said, Soto is worth MUCH more. And honestly I don't think that Ordonez will be a much better hitter than Soto in 2009, so that deal would make no sense at all whatsoever for the Cubs.

On the otherhand, I would be shocked if Crawford, Beltran, Hamilton and Granderson were even available.

Honestly though I would just LOVE to land Curtis Granderson. If we could do it without giving up either Soto or Marmol, both of whom perfectly fit a Detroit need, that'd be awesome.

Too bad I can't really see any of those guys being moved, especially for what our Cubbies can offer.

Personally there is one guy that I think the Cubs should at least look into, and that is Johnny Damon. The Yankees already have Nady and Matsui locked in for next season as well as Damon, and Melky and Austin Jackson are both in the minors, with Jackson closing in on being MLB-ready. If they could land Damon in a deal for say, Tyler Colvin and Donald Veal, then suddenly the Cubs would have exactly what they need: left handed CF who can bat leadoff. Damon may not be a great defender anymore, but this trade would allow the Cubs to keep playing Fukudome in right for his defense, as well as move Soriano down in order. The Cubs would then have a lineup of Damon, DeRosa, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Fukudome, Soto and Theriot.

I haven't heard much about Mets cutting payroll. I would think they'd be raising it since they're moving into a new stadium.

Either way, if the Mets are going to trade Beltran, the only Top 100 prospect coming back in the deal shouldn't be one who will be blocked by someone who pretty much isn't going anywhere.

Crawford might be interesting. Obviously, revenue was up this year. How much will payroll go up though? I would guess his two options get picked up, but after that, he is allowed to leave (as that is the year a lot of the other core players will see raises).

Although, Crawford for Vitters makes zero sense for either side. For the right deal, Crawford should be available, although symbolism dictates that Crawford probably won't be traded (his option is a lock to be exercised though).

Citron-

What are you talking about?

Last year the Braves lost two starters within the first month.

Smoltz and Hampton starters #2 and #4.

Then they lost Moylan and Soriano. Top two in the bullpen.

After that was Glavine starter #3.

They also lost Manny Acosta for awhile. i would say #4 bullpen guy.

Yes we got back Mike Gonzalez in the bullpen but he was reliable his 1st few appearances then after that it went down hill

YAY we lose Hudson too towards the end.

so that means you have a team that lost its top 4 Starters and Top 4 relievers.

Please dont tell me your one of the ones who thinks that Smolts, Glavine, and Hampton are ineffective.

Hampton came back and got better every start.

Smoltz dominated everyone until he played that game where he was hurting the whole time. Dont believe me? Check the game where he beat Johan Santana.

Glavine was good until he started hurting and if you look at when he said he started feeling pain it was around the time his ERA started swelling.

Then the problem becomes that you have alot of rookies/wash-ups in your bullpen. I cant tell you how many games as a fan i saw go down the drain everynight cause someone in the bullpen came out and gave up tons of runs or couldnt keep a runner at 1st from scoring. Pathetic.

Of course everyone says we still had TEX. Once again i cant tell you the many times i watched the games to see Tex play almost as bad as Frenchy. The guy didnt start doing anything till June. Only reason he had RBI's was because Yunel and Chipper were in front of him.

Now with that said. Lets just say these Braves do get peavy.

that replaces Hudson for awhile gives us an Ace. Then we go sign someone like Oliver Perez. Not overly dynamic as a pitcher but still better than Reyes. Then we have Jair and Campillo. Put that with a Hampton incentive contract you have a solid rotation that stays around 3.5 for an era combined.

Then with that you put our top relievers back in the mix (Soriano, Gonzalez, Moylan, a Re-Signed Ohman, and Acosta) then you have a strong rotation and you dont lose so many games because they do their job and hold the leads.

Speaking of leads.

so lets say in that peavy trade we give up escobar and shafer plus others for greene and Peavy.

We then trade of lillibridge and someone else, most likely tyler flowers who is blocked anyway.

get ordonez, who i will take over an inconsistent Tex any day.

that gives us

1. Anderson
2. Greene (yes 2nd)
3. Chipper
4. Ordonez
5. McCann
6. Frency
7. Kotchman
8. Kelly Johnson/Prado

1. Peavy
2. Oliver Perez
3. Jair
4. Mike Hampton
5. Campillo

CL - Soriano
SU - Gonzalez
SU - Moylan
RHP - Acosta
LHP - Ohman

IF Smoltz comes back you put Campillo in the pen as a long reliever if someone has a bad day/is injured.

If you wanna talk about 2010 i can keep going. . . . . ya know . . . . the arrival of Gorkys Hernandez, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Hanson, Roghbough, etc. . . . .

Are you serious? Braves not compete?

And to whoever said the Braves wouldnt compete within the next 5 years.

Lets say we dont trade for Peavy we just keep the guys we have.

2010 alone we have

CF - Shafer
LF - Jason Heyward
RF - Frenchy/Gorkys Hernandez/Sumoza

1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Kelly Johnson
SS - Escobar/Lillibridge
3B - Jon Gilmore
C - McCann/Tyler Flowers

2010 Rotation. I'll be nice and say we let go of Hudson.

#1 - Jair
#2 - Cole Rohrbough
#3 - Tommy Hanson
#4 - Jeff Locke
#5 - Tehearan

The bullpen is the only uncertainty with so many young talented arms in our system.

Talk about the Rays being dominant and cheap . . . .

"Are you serious? Braves not compete?"

If the talk coming out of Miami is true and no sell off is coming from arbitration eligible players, I also see the Marlins as better than the Braves, as long as Rookie starters Chris Volstod and Josh Johnson do not have sophomore jinx seasons, could compete with the Phillies possibly for the NL East crown. *IF* they do not have a sell off this off season.

drumzalicious- I don't think the Braves will be competitive in 2009, Peavy or no Peavy. If they are, it will probably be 2007-Mariner-esque competitive, which isn't really that great. Farm system is huge. Also, you can't put that much stock into prospects. They probably won't all be ready by 2010, and some might not even pan out. Adding a FA or a player via trade here and there is a good idea.

uww1- Beltran is also one of the best, if not THE best, CF in the game, and CF is a premium defensive position, unlike LF/RF. Payroll already comes off the books with the Mets when Alou, Pedro, El Duque, etc. come off the books. The #1 candidate for a trade to keep payroll down would be Delgado, and that isn't really a good idea to begin with, since he is at a decent value.

Is anyone surprised that Cards management/ownership will pass yet again on getting a big time free player that could put them right there with anyone in the division?

"They will probably sign Pavano instead so Duncan can work his mystical magic...at some point, they need to reward their fans and get a real free agent or make a trade for a real impact player."

It's sort of odd. Under Walt Jocketty the Cardinals were the kind of team to make those big moves (see McGwire, Rolen, Edmonds trades), but now it seems like they're completely unwilling to make those moves. I'm sure that's partially because their farm system sucked for so long, but it really seems like this new front office isn't so willing to pull the trigger for a cornerstone. I guess they'll just keep waiting for Colby.