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Heyman's Latest: Manny, Holliday, Peavy

SI.com's Jon Heyman has a new rumor-packed article up.

  • Heyman suggests the battle for the three elite free agents - Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, and C.C. Sabathia - will mostly be fought by the New York and Los Angeles clubs.  Heyman talked to one GM who believes the country's economic situation will not affect the big names but could be bad for the lower-tier guys.
  • Heyman's potential Manny suitors: the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Phillies.  The Phillies' interest will depend on whether Pat Burrell stays.  I'm not sure why the Orioles would be in the mix.
  • The Rockies are "very likely" to trade Matt Holliday. The Rox would be willing to sign Holliday for five years and $100MM, but that won't cut it.  The team's focus in a trade will be a young starter.  Heyman echoes a Ken Rosenthal thought from a few months ago: surprising small-market teams may enter the Holliday bidding.
  • Heyman has the Mets, Rangers, and Indians as teams looking at Brian Fuentes.  The Mets are the favorite to sign him in the three-year, $36MM range.
  • Jake Peavy has already turned down one American League team.  Heyman believes hes particularly opposed to the Rangers and has mixed feelings about the Yankees.  Peavy is reeling from the Padres' decision to shop him. 
  • Heyman has unkind words for Luis Gonzalez, who may not be welcomed back to the D'Backs based on his "uneasy relationship" with Stephen Drew and Chris Young.
  • Heyman does not think MLB has any evidence against Nationals GM Jim Bowden in the scout skimming scandal.
  • Heyman gives Ruben Amaro a slight edge over Mike Arbuckle to replace Pat Gillick as Phillies GM.
  • George W. Bush as baseball's next commissioner?  "Many have long believed" that Bush would like to be Bud Selig's successor.


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Comments

Well, Bush shouldn't be a more or less crooked than Selig. Personally I'd prefer that they both just fade into obscurity.

Bush would probably rig it so the rangers win

M. Ramirez to yanks 09

z

Maybe the sox should trade Ellsbury for Holliday. As much as i love Ellsbury with his speed, money commitments being a young player and moderate bat abilities, i think we should trade him if it would be for a caliber player of Holliday. Holliday has power numbers, Drew can move to center and he could play right. Its just that with the loss of Lowell and the sudden decline in Papi and there aging, i think it would be wise to commit to this kind of a deal. We have the money this year and the prospect talent to make this happen. Ellsbury, and either Bucholz or Lars Anderson makes sense to me

Heyman's a joke!

As a Red Sox fan, i hope the Yankees sign Manny so they can have a couple more headaches then they already have. A-Rod and him would just not work out, it would be ego vs ego. As a man who respects baseball, i just hope manny takes that $60 million dollar deal if its real and play out the rest of his days far far away from the AL East since he makes me sick to my stomach

the yanks are trying to get better defensively why would they try to sign manny. There is going to be a feeding freenzy for Holliday but i do see the Red Sox in on that big time.

Jim Bowden needs to be fired.

5yr/100MM is a solid offer for Holliday. Rox shouldn't offer more than that.

The small market teams are no surprise. They're contending, they need an impact bat minus the long term commitment. The ones with deeper farm systems should take a look, hands down.

Can Holliday play RF, or is it only LF he can play?

The Rockies will trade Atkins for less than his value before they trade Holliday for less then his value. And no, Ellsbury and Bucholz are not to hollidays value.

Bay can play center from what ive seen as well, so he could move into center and Holliday could get into left that way. if we get him, trust me, they will make him fit.

beside, if the Ortiz problem continues, he will be DHing alot anyway

mkorpal, i understand that, thats just like a base. but on the other hand, if the rox come up with a bs deal for him and he doesnt take it, then its gonna make it harder for the rox to get full value for him in a trade, because teams can just wait for him to be a free agent, their hands would be tied

holliday can come to the AL and make $100 mill in 4 years with atleast 4 or 5 teams that need fielders

Bush as the next commissioner? I dont know. That would be pretty interesting. Governor of Texas>President of the USA>Commissioner of MLB...That sounds about right.

Does this also mean that secret service would be at every game?

This could be interesting....

(sigh)

Buchholz/Anderson + Ellsbury + prospect for Holliday seems like too much to me. Atkins doesnt have much value, bad 3B defense, average bat...dont see why would anyone trade for him.

Thats true, 04Forever, but keep in mind that this is a bs report. Most reports are a 5 year, 100 million contract from the Rockies will be enough to keep him here. The issue is a NTC, which the Rockies are hesitant on, because they have been burned on a lot of contracts. I think a deal will be made soon enough.

I think that if the Red Sox were willing to include both Ellsbury and Buchholz the Rockies would bite immediately. Holliday is only under contract for one season. To land two potential building blocks like that would be solid.

I'm just not so sure the Rockies go after a CF with Dexter Fowler coming up fairly soon, and Taveras already there.

Personally I think people are seriously overestimating the difference between Bay and Holliday, and for the cost of adding Holliday it's simply not worth it.

Viktor06, how many times do I have to say this, Atkins has average defense and an above average bat. And Ellsbury + Buchholz + prospect is too little for holliday. Ellsbury doesn't excite me at all, Fowler and Spillborgs would produce better than, Buchholz had a terrable year, so I doubt the Rockies want to deal with him and Morales at the same time, and they already have tons of "prospects." Thats quite a small return for a player who almost was 30/30 last year, almost MVP the year before that, and could easily be afforded by that team. Sorry!

I most certainly think Holliday's extraordinary talents should pull in more than Ellsbury and Buchholz.

Yes, let's go ahead and let Bush ruin the game of baseball just like he ruined our great nation. He has a knack for messing things up.

"Maybe the sox should trade Ellsbury for Holliday. As much as i love Ellsbury with his speed, money commitments being a young player and moderate bat abilities, i think we should trade him if it would be for a caliber player of Holliday. Holliday has power numbers, Drew can move to center and he could play right. Its just that with the loss of Lowell and the sudden decline in Papi and there aging, i think it would be wise to commit to this kind of a deal. We have the money this year and the prospect talent to make this happen. Ellsbury, and either Bucholz or Lars Anderson makes sense to me"

I disagree. I wouldn't mind dealing Ellsbury, but no shot at all I move Clay or Lars for Holliday. A couple reasons. 1) In my opinion, Jason Bay is every bit of the player Matt Holliday is. Maybe he is even better. Matt is not an all star outside of Coors. Bay is. We know that he is. We don't know how Holliday would respond. 2) That OF defense would probably be really bad. 3) Lars and Clay have upside that is way to massive to trade for a rental in Holliday who you will have to committ a load of cash to next year.

If I were the Sox, all I would do is try to upgrade SS, to an elite level SS if possible. Say Lowrie and Ellsbury for Rollins or Hanley or maybe even just sign Furcal. How about a deal like this. Ellsbury, Lowrie, Bowden and Masterson for Carlos Gomez/Denard Span and Joe Mauer. Would that be enough? After that, just tweak the bullpen. Pick up a Ryan Freel type supersub. The Sawx are in good shape.

In case you guys don't know, I am not a fan of Matt Holliday, not in the least, and I think there is a good chance that his signing could cost a GM his job a couple years down the road. I think he will be a .300/.370/.500 ish guy, maybe. But he will get paid like he is a .340/.420/.550, which he just isn't, at all. One reason I would love to pickup Manny is because it would all but gauruntee my Mets are not even placing a phone call to inquire on Holliday.

Yes, but Holliday's home/away splits are still an issue...away from Coors he's essentially a .900OPS LF, controlled for one year.
Atkins had a 96OPS+ this year, cant hide that, his OPS away was .752. His defense is no way average, it might be average at 1B, but he has no value there. Atkins' +/- last year was -29, only Ryan Braun was worse.

And lastly, it doesnt matter if Rockies have Reynolds, Morales, Fowler etc., that doesnt lower value of other teams prospects. You can sub Ellsbury with Anderson, and make a package like Anderson+Buchholz+Reddick and if I was Rockies I'd run away with it.

Sorry, I'm confused. Bay is better than Holliday? Holliday is a better hitter, a better runner, a better defender. how the heck is Bay a better player?

Rockies can keep Holliday for Ellsbury + Bucholz, or Bowden, Lars etc.. Holiday is a 1 year rental and nothing more. Let him become a free agent like his is going to do, then see what hapeens, no sense giving up 2 top players for him period, especially when Bucholz can be used to maybe help get that catcher that is needed and Ellsbury as the speed player have not had since Otis Nixon.

Hanley is not going to Boston, another SS that cannot field would get booed out of town, range or not, being able to hit or not. The guy has the worst hands have seen in years.

i do have to admit, hanley playing short for the sox again would be pretty sexy... id pay through the teeth to get him back

"Ellsbury, Lowrie, Bowden and Masterson for Carlos Gomez/Denard Span and Joe Mauer. Would that be enough? "

No chance...Gomez's isnt less valuable than Ellsbury and Lowrie,Bowden,Masterson wouldnt get it done. I dont think they'd trade Mauer but if yes, the haul would be extreme...

nrmax88, dude youre out of your mind.
Bay isnt better at best its even.
Rollins, Hanley, or home grown Mauer? theyre not moving. especially if youre not giving Bucholz.

"And no, Ellsbury and Bucholz are not to hollidays value. "

You aren't getting more then that for one year of Matt Holliday. No shot.

did you see lugo play? he has the worst hands ive ever seen ever and he has had no upside at all. atleast hanley can run and hit

so can lowrie. plus he can catch and throw better.

Bay and Holliday are very similar players so the aggregate value of adding Holliday doesn't equate the loss of the prospects.

Also, doesn't Holliday's value somewhat depend on whether or not teams would be granted a negotiation window to extend the contract like Santana? Santana had a NTC, but a player's value is largely tied to their affordability and it would be difficult to gauge if you are unable to sign him, but as a Boras client I don't see it likely there would be an extension right?

""Ellsbury, Lowrie, Bowden and Masterson for Carlos Gomez/Denard Span and Joe Mauer. Would that be enough? "

No chance...Gomez's isnt less valuable than Ellsbury and Lowrie,Bowden,Masterson wouldnt get it done. I dont think they'd trade Mauer but if yes, the haul would be extreme..."

I meant to put Buchholz in there. I know. Mauer and MArtin probably have two of the best values in baseball. Either would cost and arm and a leg. Hanley is probably off limits, but with Fla, you never know. I wouldn't be that surprised to see PHilly move Jimmy Rollins. Aside from 2007, he is really nothing that special. He is a good shortstop with great wheels, but his offense was never that good. Plus he is 30 years old, no spring chicken. I think if the Phillies got a good replacement like Lowrie, and a good couple of prospects they wouldn't consider Jimmy off limits.

And yes, I will take Jason Bay over Holliday any time. No consideration.

"so can lowrie. plus he can catch and throw better"

So you are saying Lowrie is comparable to Hanley? That is laughable.

The juice, I almost feel like in the Santana trade, Johan's trade value was lowered by the fact that they had not an oppurtunity to, but an obligation to give him whatever contract he wanted. If it was a one year rental with no extension necesarry, I doubt Johan is a Met, and I think the Twins get a much better package then what they got. Johan might be a free agent along with CC right now.

"And yes, I will take Jason Bay over Holliday any time. No consideration."

That's a bit bold, Holliday's splits have improved some, though I see your point, I consider them very similar players.

Considering Rollins...that could be possible perhaps, although with their current run, dont see them trading him. I think your chance for good shortstop is Michael Young if you are willing to take on the salary (which Red Sox can) and he probably wouldnt cost as much in prospects

Hanley's 3 year +/- ratings are -6, -37, +3 (this year). Vizquel isn't nervous, but outside of a horrific 2007 he hasn't been *that* terrible.

1st: Peavy dissed the Rangers. Ouch. I can see that though. Wouldn't want those numbers to inflate before 2013 when he can cash in a big pay day.

2nd: Holiday should go to the Red Sox. Some one mention above that if Ellsbury is traded then Bay should move to CF. Why? I may be wrong, but I thought Crisp was still on the team? Yaaa
Holiday is the bat that Ortiz needs to be great. Look at the numbers after Man-Ram left! They made due with what they had... and that ended up being very good. However, if your line up goes something like Pedroia-Youk-Bay-Ortiz-Holiday-Drew... WoW

3rd: President Bush did a pretty good job with the Rangers at his time in Arlington.

But, everyone can shut up about who is taking over after Bud. The next guy with no doubt in my mind should/will be Bob Costas. The best man for the job!

I guess. But the thing about Mike Young is that I don't think he is enough of an upgrade over Jed to trade the prospects and take on the cash. Mike Young is a guy I would like the Mets to look into for 2B. They, like the Sox, can afford his contract, and maybe they can get a guy like Nelly Cruz as well to play LF next year. Kill two birds with one stone.

Jason Bay playing CF? Ugh.

Adding Young to play 2B for Mets doesnt make any sense...Hudson does everything similar or better than him, costs less money and prospects.

I guess if you think Lowrie can have 100+OPS+ while playing decent defense there is no need to upgrade.

I dont see Rangers trading Cruz, no reason. Mets will have Murphy/Evans in LF next year I think, money and spects will be used for pitching.

Michael Young is horrendous at SS. He will need to move to 2B soon, and should not be considered as a target for the position. Young and Lowrie are opposite players as Lowrie's defense is much better than Young's, but his bat is less. Terrible comp.

RV, since you're here, what kind of package do you think it would take for Texas to move Young. I know Andrus is getting closer, and Young's contract is pretty big. Would Texas want more salary relief or prospects, in your opinion?

when it comes to hitting, no. god no.

"Adding Young to play 2B for Mets doesnt make any sense...Hudson does everything similar or better than him, costs less money and prospects."

Yes, besides hitting, and staying on the field. Is Hudson a type A guy? That would cost prospects in itself. Hudson isn't going to be cheap either.

If I were making a list of guys I'd worry about the Yanks looking at after a Cano trade, Young would be right near the top.

(And yeah, I didn't even want to touch that Bay in CF thing because it was so high up, but barf.)

BTW: PLEASE RED SOX take Michael Young's contract off the Rangers hands. I love the man and he has been nothing but the most professional man in Baseball. But the Rangers are about to start paying a lot more money than Young is worth. Sad, but that is just baseball.

"So you are saying Lowrie is comparable to Hanley? That is laughable."

when it comes to hitting, no. god no.

Who compared Lowrie to Young?
All I said was there is no reason to make a deal for Mike Young when you have Lowrie already there.

looks like i started another huge fight on MLBTR...

And I didn't realize that Young's production had dropped off so much in 2 years. Hudson has outproduced him the last couple of years. While both play in hitters parks, I do think Young would translate better into a pitchers park like Citi Field then Hudson would. Young just seems like a better hitter even though the numbers from 07 and 08 don't support it. That's my bad.

How 'bout Niese + ? for Young and Cruz ?

Wow, Bush really is intent on destroying this country, all the way down to its national pastime...

"How 'bout Niese + ? for Young and Cruz ?"

I'm in. Niese, Kunz, Owen/Gee, Carp and Evans or something? Could add more on, the only guys I wouldn't want to move are Fernando (who Texas' doesnt need anyway, with the quality OF options they have), and Brad Holt. A guy like Wilmer Flores would be tough to move also, but anybody else would be fair game to me. Not that this leaves a ton to choose from, but I'm sure Texas could find something they like. I just always loved Young, despite his declining numbers and big contract. I think he could be a perfect piece in the Mets offense, and Nelly Cruz seems like a typical Minaya pickup also. What exactly is left on Young's deal anyway?

SS Reyes
2B Young
Cf Carlos Beltran
3B David Wright
1B Carlos Delgado
LF Murphy/Cruz
RF Cruz/Church
C Schneider/Castro

Sign Fuentes and Lowe and go to war.

I like how anyone that runs through the Red Sox system instantaneously becomes MVP calibre players. Jason Bay=Matt Holliday? You've got to be joking. Take those Sox colored glasses off once in a while.

Prediction: Michael Young in 2011 will have the worst contract in all of baseball.

It SHOULD take nothing to get Michael Young. The Rangers should do whatever it takes to move his soon to be awful contract.

It's too bad. From all accounts the guy is a gamer and great for baseball. The team severely overpaid for his future services and made it even worse by back loading it so much. Not his fault that they made such a bad deal. But, he will get blamed, like Zito, for being overpaid.

Bush would be a great commish. He could spend time ousting steroids (they actually exist, unlike the WMD's he's been looking for), and help preserve the free market, which of course was distorted to keep Bonds out of baseball!

... yes, that was written out of sarcasm

ProgMatinee - check out Holliday's stats AWAY from Coors and then look at Bay. You should start to see the comparison.

BTW - I am not a Red Sox fan AT ALL. In fact they ruined my teams season this year.

I don't root for the Sox either. I just will take Bay over Holliday when you consider that Bay has put up big numbers, but counting stats and OPS while playing for a terrible Pittsburgh team. Holliday has done so also in a good lineup in a hitters paradise. His road splits show he is not the hitter he is at Coors. I have no allegiance to the Red Sox. So there goes those last couple of straws you were grasping at. Jason Bay was always better then Holliday, I have had that opinion since way, way before Bay became a Redsox.

both counting stats and OPS***

Holliday hit .308 away, which is better than Bay hit at home or away. Holliday has a better away OPS than Bay does. Holliday has a better home OPS than Bay does.
Holliday had 28 steals to Bay's 10.

You're knocking Holliday for the drop off from home to away, but his away is as good or better than Bay's anyway, even though Holliday had lets ABs. I concede that Coors is a hitter's paradise, but so is Fenway.

The only stat that Bay looks significantly better than Holliday last year is RBI which is really the result of Holliday having a struggling Taveras (and Tulowitzki early in the year) in front of him.

Matt Holliday road stats- .280/.348/.455

Jason Bay - .282/.375/.516

Why would you compare Holliday's road OPS to Bay's road OPS? Compare Holliday's road numbers to Bays road numbers, since Bay didn't play his whole career in a launching pad.

Compare Holliday's road numbers to Bay's overall numbers.*

Bay 2007, .247 AVG
Fenway - righty hitter w/ power, new league - 2008 good stats
Bay 2009 .260/.330/.520
Holliday 2009 .320/.380/.580 no matter where

If I was Brian Cashman I would offer:
Hughes, Ramirez or Veres for Holliday even if I had to take Atkins and give up both relievers.

And the Mets will definitely sign Manny because he speaks Spanish.

Dont people understand that the Yankees arent going to trade for Holliday or sign Ramirez. It aint going to happen.

Yankees:

--> Get Teixieira
--> Get CC Sabathia
--> Get AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, or Jake Peavy
--> Resign Abreu & Marte
--> IF Abreu leaves, get Manny or GET BOTH!!
--> DON'T Trade Cano
--> Resign Mussina & Pettitte
--> Keep Joba in the bullpen
--> Decide to put Damon in CF or LF or DH

ULTIMATE LINEUP:

CF Damon
SS Jeter
RF Abreu
3B A-Rod
LF/DH Manny
1B Teixeira
LF/DH Matsui
C Posada
2B Cano

or

LF Damon
SS Jeter
RF Abreu
3B A-Rod
1B Teixeira
DH Matsui
C Posada
2B Cano
CF Gardner

or

LF Damon
SS Jeter
RF Abreu
3B A-Rod
DH Manny/ Matsui
1B Teixeira
C Posada
2B Cano
CF Gardner

ULTIMATE ROTATION:

1. CC Sabathia
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. Mike Mussina
4. AJ Burnett/Derek Lowe/Jake Peavy
5. Andy Pettitte

CL Rivera
SU Joba
MR Bruney
MR Marte
MR Veras
MR/LR Coke
MR/LR Hughes/ Aceves

Yankees would trade Cabrea, Hudges, and Kennedy for Peavy
They would trade Damon and Matsui for prospects or for bench
They will sign Manny Burnet C.C. and Mark T.

Yankees 09 lineup:
CF Gardner (later on Jackson)
SS Jeter
RF Abreu
3B A-Rod
DH Manny
1B Teixeira
LF Matsui
C Posada
2B Cano

Rotation:
C.C.
Peavy
Wang
Burnett
Mussina

Gardner will never pinch hit

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