Latest Peavy Chatter

baleen, I'd rather have Escobar than Greene too. I'm trying to get PEAVY!

But, I think Esco is a solid SS, but doesn't do anything especially well. Little speed, little power, average defense. He does hit the ball hard, and posts a good OBP and a decent SLG pct. But I don't see him as a franchise guy.

Greene would add salary relief to the Pads - hopefully enticing them to do a deal not involving Hanson, Heyward or Schafer. And in 2010, we either go with Lil'bridge, or maybe Brandon Hicks is ready at SS.

(pretty much just blew the sale to the Pads, didn't I?)

Two Possibile pacakges:

Adenhart
Weaver
S. Rodriguez

Adenhart
Weaver
mathis

AtlantaMike - I'm with you on Escobar. He's good, young, and cheap. I'm not necessarily looking to get rid of him, but if I could trade him instead of Heyward to get Peavy, I'd be all over it!!!!

Khalil Greene is negative value now, but I don't think relief from his salary will be important enough to cut what the Padres ask for with Peavy. There are plenty of teams that would take Greene if all they had to give up was some overaged rookie-ball reliever, so he doesn't really need to be packaged.

Where the Angels fall short is in potential top-of-the-rotation starting prospects who are at AA or above. Adenhart and Green have those K rates that look more like 4th / 5th starters, and since the Padres lack a Peavy replacement, you have to think they're looking for one in any trade. I don't see Wood and Conger being enough without a big-time arm.

i understand the point that he wants to go to a contender but the reds may not be as far away as people may think if they could somehow get peavy ( highly doubtful ) without giving up volquez or cueto thats a hell of a rotation

peavy
volquez
harang
arroyo
cueto

No disrespect to Reds' fans, but they need to remember that Peavy has a no-trade clause. They aren't too far away from being contenders, but I really don't see Peavy wanting to pitch half the time in Cincy.

hahaha I understand Atlanta Mike. I'm higher on Esco's defense than you are, but otherwise I agree with you. His baserunning is atrocious.

He is valuable though, and I'd be willing to move him for Peavy in the right circumstance. The problem the Braves run into in these situations is they have a middle of the pack payroll. They can't trade from a position of strength then go fill the hole via free agency. That's why I've been adamant about them not trading Jurrjens for Peavy. They would essentially have to then find a way to get Jurrjen's level production for his cost, which doesn't exist on the FA market.

baleen, agree 100% on Jurrjens. It would be foolish to include him in a trade - I don't care if we get Cy Young himself - because then we've got to find another #2/3 starter to fill the void.

Another option might be to load up an offer for Peavy with some of the young lefties - Rorhbough, Evarts (who's a great prospect but I think injured), Locke, Rodgers, Diamond, Osuna. (the entire Rome staff was comprised of lefties with upside).

I'm not suggesting that the Pads would take ONLY A-level prospects, but sometimes GM's do want quantity as much as quality. It would still take a big piece, but maybe not as big, if we added 2 or 3 starting prospects into the deal.

Just spitballing, of course.

AA, that's the problem with trading Gonzalez and Peavy together. Almost nobody has the pieces, or is willing to trade them, to get both players. If you compare that deal to the one proposed for Peavy alone, it comes down to one legitimate but flawed prospect (Wood), an older 1b who hasn't hit outside of Salt Lake, and a 27 year old 5th outfielder who has yet to post an OPS+ above 100. That's not gonna fly. The Yankees have kicked the tires on Gonzalez, and as cheap and good as he is, they're going to be asked for names like Hughes, Kennedy, Jackson, etc. Not that the Padres would get those guys, necessarily, but the Padres almost have to split Peavy and Gonzalez up because no one can pay the combined bill.

Absolutely Atlanta Mike. I suspect that if Towers wanted to go that route, Wren would be happy to oblige him. I think the best deal for both teams would include Schafer & Hanson. I'd hate to loose both guys, but they're borderline ML ready, if not already so. It would help the Padres remain competitive in '09 and after those 2 go through their break-in period they could be back in contention on the cheap in '10.

If Towers wants to "spread his risk out" Wren could get away with only giving up 1 of the uber-prospects and offer up a buffet of 3/4 star guys, like the ones you listed.

It's amazing that a year and a half after the Teixeira trade the Braves are right back in the discussion of the top 10 systems. If Lillibridge and B.Jones hadn't crapped the bed this year it could be knocking on the door of the Top-5

Hmm...how about this? We take Peavy and Greene for Johnson, Lillibridge, Reyes, Blanco, and Rohrbough...

Obviously we'd be giving less because of taking on Khalil Greene...

Then we spin Greene, Locke, and Brandon Jones off to Detroit for Maggs...

Detroit is looking for a slick fielding SS in a market where there will be little to no SS available this winter...

Then the #1 and bat get taken care of and we can focus on another starter...

Along w/ that San Diego gets a double play combo that starts there from day 1 in KJ and Lilli, an OF starter or bench guy in Blanco, a mid rotation starter out of the gate in Reyes and a projected top rotation guy in Rohrbough.

Thoughts?

Braves22 - I like the idea. I think we would probably have to sweeten the pot a bit for the Padres, but something of that nature could definitely work. But I see what you did there, & me likey. If Wren has about $45MM to play with that deal would leave around $16MM to add an additional starter and cover arb raises.

Hahahaha ThePadreWay, once this Peavy speculation really starts to heat up after the World Series I'm fully expecting to read stuff like "Cano, Melky & Duncan for Peavy but only if the Padres include a bullpen piece like Bell, Meredith or Adams!!1"

Braves fans can be unrealistic too though. Crazy trade scenarios always make me laugh, but none harder than some of the Yanks fans around here.

Baleen, did you read the Mets offseason outlook? Not all of the Mets fans of course...but some of the crap they came up with was incredible.

PadreWay, If Towers has to cut payroll, Greene has to go. Makes sense to package him with the best possible player, Peavy. However, it would definitely decrease the package. And yes, it should. Greene hit 27 HRs, but only had a .291 OBP. He is basically Jeff Francoeur in SS form, and the Braves already have the misery that is the current Jeff Francoeur. After this past season, Greene has negative value, especially with his over-priced contract.

sdpadrefan - Thanks for the inside scoop. From what I've been ready, it sounds like he is basically being forced to consider trading Peavy.

I'd send two of Morton, Reyes, Parra, Campillo OR Hanson and James PLUS a couple of lower level pitching prospects.

Andy - yes, yes I did. It was the source of a good 10 minutes worth of "lol" moments!

I love the fact that this site is doing a Padres story line. But guys lets get a reality check. First before you come up with trade ideas, look into both teams and what they have and what the value.
Padres:
No need for a CF, Gruet is going to be given a chance to prove it wasnt a fluke. And we have Hunter and Carvajal projected at the position. Corner infield is set as well. Catcher could be upgraded, but only if a sure fire catcher is the target. Pitching is always a target. But we have a lack of middle infield, and corner outfield options for the future.

At middle infield, only Cumberland (SS) is highly regarded with Antonelli (who struggled this year) but Cumberland is 2-3 years away.

At corner outfield, Huffman and Kulbacki are the only real players in our system with any good upside. Unless you count Macias who will get his shot next year.

So the Padres will look to add via a Peavy trade a high upside corner outfielder, or a young middle infielders with high upside.

And thou i am sure KJ is a good player, he also has 3.127 service time, in other words arb eligible, not what the Padres are looking for.

AirmanSD, good post. Living in Atlanta, I don't get to see the Pads play a lot... but it looks to me like Gerut is more suited for a corner spot than CF (just looking at his numbers... I may be wrong).

So a solid (true) CF prospect (Schafer or G. Hernandez) might be to the Padres' liking.

Braves don't have too much in terms of middle infielders with no service time. Lillibridge is so far all glove/no bat. Prado is decent (actually had good offensive numbers in '08, but no one really thinks it'll last); probably destined for a career as a backup.

Y. Escobar is dirt cheap for one more year, then probably $1.5 mil or so in 2010, and up from there.

Seems to me that Escobar, Schafer/Hernandez (preferably Hernandez, from a Braves POV) and of course some pitching, might be enticing.

I dont know why some guys are reluctant to let go of Shafer. I personally prefer Josh Anderson over him

Drumzalicious, you are insane. Anderson is a slap hitter, no power, less than optimal plate discipline. He is a 4th outfielder at best.

Scribbletone, Towers seems to be under some pressure to cut payroll. Peavy is getting expensive and his value may never be higher. No, they don't have to hold onto him, but I don't think that a team like the Braves would have to mortgage the future to get him, the untouchables will probably remain so.

ThePadreWay: I know what you mean, but according to scouts we have lots of corner infielders, not so much outfields. Can they play outfield, more than likely.

Pitching is always desirable, always. If we can get a stud arm for Peavy we are going to do it. No doubt about. But its not like we dont have any arms in the minor leagues. Do we have an ace in the system, not yet, but who knows, no one rated Peavy as an ace when he was a minor leaguer, in fact he was called a 3-4 type pitcher.

Plus most of our deals this recently addressed our pitching, adding 7 pitchers to our system in the process.(Maddox, Wolf, Clark, and Linebrink)

I am sure that in a Peavy deal we are going to add pitching, but it will be of lower value than a a well known name, unless its Price or someone. But for the most part it will be a SS/2B/RF player than will be most intriguing to the Padres. One with tremendous upside.

Airman, I will take that bet.

I don't doubt that they'd like a quality SS or corner OF, but if that's all someone can offer, the deal won't happen. There's going to be a potential impact arm involved, as well as at least one other pitcher. That's my prediction. The only way that doesn't happen is if other trades somehow bring one back, but that means trading Gonzalez. Nobody else is worth enough.

And Peavy was rated as a potential future T.O.R. starter by the time he was in A ball. When he was drafted he was projected as more of a mid-rotation type, but you don't strike out 11 per 9 as a younger minor leaguer and not get called elite.

Most of this year's deals involved future relievers or kids in the lower minors. Peavy's going to be used for close-to-majors talent. The front office and the fans don't want to wait years to see the fruits of this deal.

greene a negative value.....idiot....

the guy is one year removed from 43 doubles 27 homers and 97 RBI while playing gold glove defense

there are alot of clueless people on this site that have no clue what they are talking about.

teams dont get one of the best pitchers in the game without giving up their best prospects

cubs fan suggests peavy and gonzo for a deal around d lee...... gonzo is better younger cheaper and they dont even have the prospects to get peavy let alone both.

Scribbletone...

Whats funny about that is our "supposed" mediocre young players would make your team MUCH better...

Besides, how exactly can you call Reyes who was in last years Top 10 prospects and Rohrbough who is in this years Top 10 mediocre...

And Lillibridge is blue chip material as well...

No offense to Matt LaPorta but he has proven NOTHING so far and the A's...REALLY? Thats the best you could come up w/...matched up, we can do much better and still not give up any of our top 5 prospects, which more than likely we won't...

Realization is that Peavy holds the cards because of the no trade clause...its just that simple...he picks where he wants to go and with it being almost a certainty of him being dealt, I like our chances...

And after hearing Towers today, I'm feeling more strongly now that we won't have to give up as much to attain the goal of getting him...

If you heard Towers today, you'd know what I am talking about.

Braves22: scribbletone was refering to the idea that a Kelly Johnson centered package was good enough to get Peavy. Its not, thou KJ might be a good player, he is not worth enough to get Peavy, plus as I have already mentioned he is going to be expensive. The Braves have a good chance at getting Peavy if the Padres decide to trade him, but its an option not a fact. The Padres can keep him, if a deal is not right for them. End of Story. Even with the quote today, its not like they have a gun to their heads to trade him.

As for a deal, we are going want want one or two of your top five, if you dont want to pay that price we dont move him.

red sox have shown they will trade prospects with upside for proven players like they did with hanley ramirez.

i would not be surprised to see buchholz in a deal for peavy. lester will not be though, guaranteed.

players do have pull and ultimately he wants to stay in san diego.

and having lillibridge hearnandez or reyes as the center piece isnt realistic its strait up ridiculous and wont happen.

J. Peavy in a brand new stadium ... yanks 09

z

steroid Schafer and Gorkys are NOT elite prospects

.264 .348 .387 gorkys line at high A while his SB's where much lower than the year before.....

very unimpressive

about the same amount of AB's as the year before and maybe hes got injury issues either way hes no where near an "elite" prospect

CF is not a major need anyway for the Padres, since Hunter hit .318/.362/.442 at the same level (high A)

Its true Heyward does not have to be included in a deal, but either Hanson or Heyward is more than likely a must for the Padres.

And our offense is a much more needed area of upgrade than our pitching, but both should be upgraded.

Chris, a Tex package would be about the goal. Your trade for Tex got you a great offensive player for a year and a half (if you hadn't then traded him yourself). Peavy's a great pitcher under control for 5 years.

Low minor players aren't going to be very valuable in this kind of deal.

Airman, that's just not true (offense versus defense). I wrote a little something about it earlier. It's the ballpark.

Padre pitchers this year had an ERA+ of 89. That stinks. The offense had an OPS+ of 96. That's still below average, but much better than the pitching. And that pattern has been true most seasons since 2004. 2007 was the only season that was reversed, and the offense was still average. It was just that the pitching, especially Peavy and the pen, was great.

Both aspects do need improvement, but the pitching was far, far worse than our hitting this year. And that's going to be harder to fix if Peavy's gone. As Towers said on the radio this morning, they're happy with the young position players. The only pitcher above A ball who looks like he might even be a 3rd starter is Inman. The rest are all back of the rotation types and future relievers.

where is this so called rumor about escobar? link? or is it just braves fan board rumors?

bkoke, I think it's just braves fan board rumors. I sure didnt' see any legit sources posted on it.

Oh I didn't mean trade rumor sites, just some message boards and blogs.

I wasn't meaning it like that. I wasn't meaning that those "rumors" are true or have legs to it. I meant that if what was said is true then that type of deal would have some steam or legs to it. I know I sound a bit contradictory, but I have a habit of not saying what I mean in the right way. Not really a gift of gab type of person.

ThePadreWay,

A Tex type package you say?

JoJo Reyes or Charlie Morton can be Matt Harrison, the "no better than back end of rotation" guy.

Tyler Flowers can be Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the "good hitting catcher, but blocked by McCann" guy.

Brett Lillibridge can be Elvis Andrus, the "good defensive shortstop who everyone raves about, but doesn't seem to hit well" guy.

Cole Rohrbaugh can be Neftali Feliz, the "we think he'll be really, really good, but he hasn't shown it in his stats yet" guy.

And anyone can be Beau Jones, the "random throw in" guy.

The prospects we gave up for Tex were decent, but it was essentially Andrus and Feliz for Teixeira and Mahay. Harrison, Saltalamacchia and Jones wouldn't have figured much for us anyway and Salty's value especially was declining all the time.

Interesting to note that the deal included, and indeed was centred around low minors players in Feliz and Andrus.

A Haren package is not really a fair comparison either. That was an ace signed at a price vastly below market value. Peavy is an injury risk and will probably want the final year guaranteed to waive the no trade clause.

i guess it was just wrong perception

when people say....

"it seems to have some type of steam or have some legs to it."

"from an ATL source"

its an easy misconception

Touche'.

If it does have any steam to it or that it could possibly happen though, it would be an interesting one then.

NickC: Peavy's barely an injury risk. It's been pointed out before, but over the last 4 years he's thrown 800 innings. He's no Harden.

If Flowers can't play catcher, he's a 1b who doesn't hit enough to play 1b. Salty's defense is better and thus his value was higher.

Lillibridge is in no way comparable to Andrus. Come on. Andrus may end up being no better than Lillibridge, even worse, but he was a much more highly thought of player at the time the trade was made. Lillibridge's value plummeted this year. Andrus was riding a wave.

The Rangers may have wanted low-minor players. The Padres don't. And as Chris and I were discussing, the question is really whether the Braves will have to dig deeply into their prospect horde for Peavy like they did with Tex. The horde includes different people now, but you're still going to dig deep to get Peavy.

One of the guys at Baseball Prospectus said a fair Peavy deal would bring back three prospects in the top 75 of ALL minor leaguers, including one top 15 and one top 50. It's not going to center on a kid like Lillibridge who couldn't hit his weight this year or a fluke like Prado. If guys like that are part of the deal, it's so they can carry the luggage of the more valuable players coming to San Diego.

Reading a lot of comments that the Brewers could be in the mix here... I don't think that we could be. At this stage, the Brewers have way too many unknowns about next year to be in the market - given how early this market seems to have formed.

The Padres could be costing themselves some suitors if they move too early. Maybe if there is a Hardy/Fielder trade is in place to rebuild the system a Peavy to the Brewers trade could work... But the Fielder market doesn't take shape until tex is off the market.

If Peavy is still around come the winter meetings, absolutely the Brewers could be a player. But until the Sabathia, Sheets, potential Fielder/Hardy trades are resolved I don't know if the Brewers are ready to gut their farm system at this stage.

A Brewers trade would have to involve either (both???) Jeffress(the only impact arm in the entire system) or Gamel (the systems only impact bat). Escobar is an option as well, but then the flexibility to trade Hardy is gone.

Fun with Facts!! This one's for you bkoke:

Hanley Ramirez, in 1536 Minor League ABs

.297/.352/.430 99/144 SB

Gorkys Hernandez in 1092 Minor League ABs

.288/.348/.403 - 94/113 SB

So by taking, like, 5 extra walks next year and getting just a little bit more loft on some doubles, Gorkys Hernandez can be garnished with the allusive "prospect with upside" label from baseball talent guru bkoke. I know it's unlikely, because Gorkys will be entering his physical prime and all, but there's some hope!

Some Braves fans make some very, very dumb trade scenarios. But just because your team's season ends tomorrow night doesn't mean you have to take out your frustration on this message board.

In regards to the Yunel Escobar rumor, David O'Brien, the Braves beat writer for the AJC, said "when I ran it by someone who probably has a very good idea bout it, it was not shot down." I would give you a link but I don't won't to waste any more time than I already have on you. If you're that worried about Braves fans trying to enjoy their offseason, you can look it up yourself.

hanleys AA season at age 20 .310 .360 .512

hernandez A+ season at age 20 .264 .348 .387

I don't see how this trade goes down without a couple of top tier guys.

Kevin Towers is a top tier GM, he has a top tier pitcher to trade with ALL the TIME in the world to do it.

If he's not blown away this winter, there is always the trade deadline. That means top prospects, not filler.

Cards are a good chance, but like the Brewers it will hurt (the only high upside guys you have in Rasmus and Anderson...)

Let's get a couple of things straight:

1) Every power SP has some injury risk. Peavy may have just a hair more but that's it. Its not enough to effect the deal other than to be a negotiation point for Wren.

2) It will take 2 - 3 MLB-ready or very near MLB-ready players PLUS 2 - 3 lower level prospects. It won't be KJ plus 5 A-ball players but it won't be the Braves top 5 prospects.

3) Towers does not HAVE to make any deal that gives Peavy away. However, the owner has indicated that if a fair deal can be worked out and Peavy is agreeable, it will get done.

4) Before Peavy would agree to ANY trade, he will require that the option year be guaranteed as compensation.

My feeling is the deal will start with one ML-ready (or near ready) SP - Morton/Parra/Reyes/Hanson/James. Then add one ML-ready (or near ready) position player - K Johnson/Lillibridge/Escobar/B Jones/Blanco/Anderson/Sammons/Schafer. Next, depending on the Pads' choices for the above, another one may be added. Finally, again depending on the ML-ready talent included, 2 - 3 lower level prospects would be included. I don't think Heyward would be included because he is still a couple of years away. I also don't think the deal would center around ONE of the following: Hanson, Escobar or Heyward.

Nickc do you realize quite how much you gave up for Tex?

Salty is still projected to be an above average hitter so if he manages to stay behind the plate he's really valuable.

Andrus should be ready in a year or so and he's going to be a very good shortstop for a long time

Neftali Feliz is arguably the best pitching prospect in the minors at this moment. His stuff is simply electric and he's getting more polished by the day.

Harrison should be a solid back of the rotation starter, although Jones will likely never contribute on a good team.

And I think you're seeing a lot of the standard thing that happens with trades: the overvaluing of prospects.

I think people are really underestimating the cost of Peavy if they think they can get him without giving up one of Heywood, Hanson or Teheran. Peavy is a stud, and honestly if the Braves didn't offer one of those guys, I think the Cubs, Reds, Yankees or even another team could put together a superior offer than that.

just read his blog and see no mention of what your talking about how about a link and quote or you just blowing smoke?