Latest Peavy Chatter

Thundersticks, that's more along the lines of what I was getting it in not so many words. A deal of all top tier prospects isn't a fair deal. However, on the other side a deal of lower level and one top tier isn't fair either.

If what is said is true (pitching, pitching and more pitching), then I think Towers would go after 1 ML ready or near ready pitcher (top tier if need be, i.e. Hanson), position player that is ML ready, ML level or near ML ready, then the other prospects would definitely be lower level prospect pitching. Which we do have talent in lower levels pitching wise that are not "lowly minors".

So a package of 4 - 5 players that AREN'T TOP TIER PROSPECTS only nor low minors depending on who's picked would be fair. If the deal was to be centered around one, it'd be Hanson more than likely.

scribbletone

"I think people are really underestimating the cost of Peavy if they think they can get him without giving up one of Heywood, Hanson or Teheran."

I can agree and would be OK with Hanson. However, quite a bit of people are overestimating the cost of Peavy as well. Giving 4 to 5 top tier prospects for Peavy is straight up absurd and that's the insinuation of the cost or so it seems.

I think just one top tier prospect and other valuable players that aren't top tier (prospect wise)and some ML level and/or ML ready players would be fair depending on the players of course.

If the Braves are the team that trades for Peavy then Hanson is a goner, it's almost a given. When the GM says they want "pitching, pitching, pitching" usually the team that's trading has to give up their top pitching prospect.

bkoke, baleen wasn't blowing smoke. DOB did say that. You gotta scroll through it all though.

Teheran... If someone wanted to make him the centerpiece of a trade for real MLB talent, I'd do it in a second. The guy is 17 years old, and hasn't done anything in pro ball.

The odds of him staying healthy and progressing to the Bigs are astronomical.

In addition there is the defense, which is very close to the same for both players

Gorky: (Numbers for CF)
Fielding Percentage: .980
Range Factor: 2.52

Cedric:
Fielding Percentage: .983
Range Factor: 2.50

If the Cards do work out a Peavy deal that includes K. Greene (which would be seen as a salary dump) would it cost as many players?

"And when I ran it by someone who probably has a very good idea bout it, it was not shot down."

this does not mean a deal is in the works nor does it mean a deal has even been discussed. it means the braves would possibly consider it. nothing more

Let me throw my hat into the ring with a Peavy for Stetter, Brad Nelson and Tony Gwynn Jr.

The Brewers get 5 years of an expensive injury prone pitcher, and in return the Padres get some rotation depth, a Hard hitting first baseman that looks like a manatee and Tony Gwynn's son.

I think Derek Lowe's price tag will surprise a lot of people (more expensive than sheets?)

I would imagine that, at this point, quite a few names are being thrown around. Something like:

KT: We would like Escobar & Hanson to start.

FW: I don't think so. Maybe Escober & Parra or Hanson & Lillibridge.

KT: How about Escobar, Morton & Sammons?

FW: Let me think about it....

Hopefully because you can infer sarcasm...

I also wouldn't rule out an under-the-radar type trade for another SP. One where we go "I didn't know THAT guy was available!!!"

Then I think we need to sign Dunn or Abreu for LF.

baleen - That was meant to be the starting point. There would be other prospects involved, obviously. My point was that just about everyone on the Braves roster is going to mentioned somehow.

Let me repeat - by no means am I suggesting it would only cost Escobar, Morton and Sammons to get Peavy!!!

Wow this thread blew up while I was away! :D

bobo, back to my points.

1. Is Heyward MLB ready?

Not right now no but as point 2 says, we may not win with Peavy next year anyhow. We can't count on Hampton, Smoltz or Glavine and Huddy wont be back till midseason at best. That means Jurrjens is our current ace, even if we add Peavy we are really struggling to piece together a rotation. Would Peavy be great? YES! Would he put us in the playoffs in our current state? Probaly not. If the Braves situation was different I could see paying more (adding Heyward in one way or another) but the payoff just might not be there so I'd rather not mortgage the future yet again to finish 3rd and 4th in our division.

2. Good point about not being able to win next year.

I wish it weren't true, believe me. :(

3. Prospects are valuable, but not THAT valuable. If someone would pay the Braves $70M for Heyward, they'd just on it in a second. Trading him for Peavy is the equivalent.

No matter how good a prospect looks, you have to look at the possible outcomes. And "MLB average" is the most likely. Heyward is very valuable - just not worth $70M. A best guess? Maybe $30M.

Let's take Longoria, is his production (.900ish OPS) at 5 mill total over 4 years (400k + 500k + 1 mill + 3 mill) worth more than Peavy's pitching at 53 mill over 4 years? This anaology obviously has flaws, I quickly guess pre arb salary plus the first year of arm for Longoria, we are comparing a hitter to a pitcher and Heyward isn't Longoria but he will be a top prospect as Longoria was. Point is the Braves have 50 extra mill to throw at another pitcher over that same time period plus they keep the additional prospects it would take to land Peavy because they aren't going to do it 1 for 1. I certainly understand a prospet doesn't equal a MLB star but when you look at the Braves situation now, their situation in 2 years and weigh just how valuable getting a bat with that type of potential at less than a mill per season over their first 4 seasons and it's awfully hard to give up Heyward in a deal like this.

I still say start with Hanson/Schafer/Lillibridge and see where we are at. I believe it will take one or two more players (if it's two then they aren't going to be that great) but I think it's a good start. If the Braves deal Heyward in the deals passed around here today, we wont win our division once while Peavy is here without some serious roster management by Wren who hasn't overly impressed me to date thus far.

not to rag on your minor league system cardinals fans but its not that good. You Rasmus and not much else. Anderson isn't bad but he's not elite. and nobody wants one of your outfielders either, except ludwick.

Lowe left the Redsox after a title didn't he?

Also, everywhere one reads Lowe being the under the radar signing... I don't think he will represent value at all given that GMs would know what he offers. People seem to think that Sabathia, Sheets and Burnett will get the big money and Lowe will be taking change...

Tier One: Sabathia
Tier Two: Sheets, Lowe Burnett.

I would be not that surprised if Lowe gets the second highest average dollar value on his contract this year. He doesn't have the durability concerns of Sheets and Burnett.

Personally as a Braves fan Id be just fine not pursuing Peavy. It's obviously gonna take a rather large package in order to get him from the Padres, something I dont think the Braves need to do. Id much rather try to sign both Burnett and Lowe. At the very least Burnett. We have money to spend this offseason, so why go out dealing away our farm system when we can accomplish our needs with the extra cash we have to sign people.

drumzalicious, your first mistake is penciling Hampton in the 3rd spot! :p

Seriously though, you are grasping at straws there. The Phillies will have most of their team back as will the Mets. McCann can't play every day, Chipper can't play every day, that lineup would have very little power and our ball club doesn't run well. I'm not saying it can't happen but it's unlikely I think even if we get Peavy and certainly not a lock if we got Lowe and some power bat as you suggest.

Best case scenario is I suppose Anderson has a .400 OBP in the leadoff spot, Chipper plays 120 games, McCann stays healthy, Frenchy bounces back, KJ breaks out and we can sign the people you suggest. If that were to happen, maybe we have a shot but banking on best case scenario could likely land Wren in some hot water in my opinion.

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/10/what-is-peavy-worth-on-the-trade-market/

not to rag on your minor league system cardinals fans but its not that good. You Rasmus and not much else. Anderson isn't bad but he's not elite. and nobody wants one of your outfielders either, except ludwick.

It's ok for anyone to rag on the Card's farm system. I agree its not too pretty. Maybe in a few years it will look a little better with Kozma, Wallace, Freese, and some others moving up but until then, the barn will have one stud (Rasmus) and a few more out in the pasture.

As far as Peavy goes, while I'd love to see him in Cardinal red, I don't see it happening. The trade would destroy what little we have in the minor league. Although Peavy would be worth the trade at the moment, there is no telling down the road (in walks Mulder).

If I were John Moz, I'd probably look at Lowe and find a way to trade Pineiro while resigning Looper.