Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

As a non-Cubs fan I do agree with Tim. No reason to blow this thing up. The Cubs just ran into some bad games in a short series.

I do think they would be very well served finding a true lead-off hitter. Moving Soriano down will certainly help both Ramirez and Lee.

I can only hope we can dump Marquis and resign Blanco to a cheaper deal. If we could move Lee somehow, I'd love that as well. Of course I have no idea how we'd move Lee and still have a reliable 1B. Not sure if Hoffpauir is ready.

If we keep the roster like this, re-sign Dempster and Wood, I just wonder how high we can go. With that alone we could be looking at almost $155MM.

Looks like you beat me to the punch, bj! :) I agree. In a perfect world, we could sign a lefty leadoff middle infielder (such as a healthy Furcal) AND a big LH bat to break up the righties in the middle of the order. Probably can only afford one without moving Lee. I agree it needs to be the leadoff guy. Stick Soriano in the 3, 5 or 6 hole, let him work through his inevitable initial struggles. Furcal seems likely to remain a Dodger however, which leads to another offseason of BrianRobertsTradeRumors.com??

I haven't much feel for the current status of some Cubs' prospects. I get the sense Vitters is easily the best, though his year wasn't all that. Ceda, a step back. Veal, three steps back. How about Tony Taylor? What's the current view? Any pitchers? What could the Cubs trade?

I think it is time for Derek Lee. We already have a placement for him at first

I don't want Roberts for the price McFail would want.

I don't understand with the payroll, how we are going to get that lefty bat unless we are trading one of our big contracts for it...I really don't.

I also am really worried that if Dempster is going to require a 4/56 deal, that maybe we should take the picks...I was thinking that 4/48 would be the highest I would go...or maybe something like 3/42.

I wouldn't mind Milton Bradley either...but not sure how we can afford him.

I think that we will resign Wood and Dempster, but I think we are going to have to trade either Marquis or Lee to have the money to sign a lefty bat from that group.

What are the possibilities of letting Fontenot lead off and play 2nd full time? That .395 OBP and .909 OPS sure like shiny right now.

Anyway, I think a lot of the media act like the cubs still have an open checkbook...but I just don't see how.

I'd be passing on the free agent market this year as well. The cubs have 90 million commited to 6 players in 2010. I would assume that anyone they resign this year will add to that total. I think it might be prudent to expect the cubs to sit out this offseason if possible.

Give Hoffpauir ABs too, the dude can flat out hit.

Hoffpauir will be the new 1B. Trade Lee for money or even a new OF (Damon?).

by the way...Samardzija has a NTC. How crazy is that? I think the only reason he would quit football is if he knew he was staying with the Cubs...

So while he is extremely valuable, he has no trade value because he can't be traded.

first of all, why would any of you trade marmol?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

despite any of his bad streaks that he went through, he is maybe the best young reliever in baseball. he is young, has rediculous movement on his pitches, and, dont forget one of the most important aspects, he is cheap! with the current situation with the rising payroll, changing ownership, and yes even the struggling economy, why would you trade an affordable, young talent who is also fun to watch?!?!

i know some of you have to agree with me out there...

rootman,

I think we all agree. He is as close to untouchable as you can get. I completely agree that he is

A) As good of a young reliever as there is in the game

B) Cheap, which for this team, is very important.

Michael M,

Can you imagine Kerry Wood on the Mets or Cardinals? Thats a very real possibility if you let him go...

i've got hoffpauir as the big lefty bat off the bench, replacing ward. nothing more. i'm not at all sold on him replacing d-lee at first. yes, his power's declined and he had a shocker in game 2 with the glove, but he is still excellent defensively and is above average offensively. not a 3-hole hitter anymore, if he ever really was, but if you're going to trade d-lee you better be able to upgrade that position. hoffpauir isn't that guy for me. he will get exposed facing good pitching consistently, i am convinced.
there was someone in the cubs system that had a pretty long hitting streak this season, but i don't remember who and i never bothered to look it up. was it vitters?
if i'm hendry and anyone comes asking about someone in our system (ceda, vitters, thomas, etc.) and there's a good match, make the deal. there is not one sure thing in the system and this team's window is open for only another year or two. upgrade short and right, platoon johnson and fukudome in center.
aduncaroo, i think it was you who mentioned in another thread that losing gallagher will hurt down the road. that may very well be, but that's a prime example of a deal that has to be made. same thing with sabathia and the brewers. you make deals that you have to make so you give yourself a chance. some left-handed pop and a true leadoff hitter is all this team really needs. i'm also not sold on derosa playing right every day, though i expect a huge year from him in the final year in his deal. marquis finished pretty strong, trade him while his value's high to teams that miss out on some of the free agent starters.

I think Wood is a huge question mark, depending on what he wants. His replacement is already there as Marmol is the future of the closer position in Chicago. If Wood wants a big long term deal (I dont know what he is looking for but I would something in the range of 10 million a year for 4 years is a big deal) than let him walk.

Save the money and spend it elsewhere!

"aduncaroo, i think it was you who mentioned in another thread that losing gallagher will hurt down the road. "

I said it might...but was ALWAYS in agreement that you have to make that deal. Even if Gallagher becomes an Ace, the deal made way too much sense at the time. He gave the best team in the NL a legit Ace at the deadline...Hendry did the right thing.

I might pick up Pierre if he was DFAed by the Dodgers...but thats the only way. He isn't worth more than the league minimum to this team that has maxed out their payroll.

"i've got hoffpauir as the big lefty bat off the bench, replacing ward. "

Yes...why not? he certainly has earned that spot...but I agree that he won't put up those AAA numbers in the majors.

I think give Wood one more contract that is two years, 18 mil, with a vesting option for a third year at 11 mil. As far as Dempster, offer either the 3/42 or 4/48 and if he leaves for more, you get two picks for it. Then, shop Marquis and see what you can get for him. I would also shop Lee and see if a team like the Giants will give up a guy like Sanchez for him. Then, you might be able to put a guy like D-Ro at 1st and have him platoon time with Hoffpauir, and move around otherwise. Trading Marquis and Lee would free up over 20 mil or so...and let you get a true lefty power bat.

Anyway, in order to bring one of those guys in and get the lineup how Lou wants it, its going to take some serious creativity and crazy trades. I don't see us getting what we would want for Lee...so he probably stays.

after and when we sign wood and dempster are salary cap is at 145-150 million. I head that the cubs will go no higher then 160-165 million so we have about 10-25 millions dollars to play with, so i would go out and get adam dunn and sign him a a 3yr deal for 14yr (i know he strike out alot but his obp is in the top 5 every year cause of his power and over 125 walks a year), then maybe go out and dump marquiz on some1 for anything like literaly a prospect or 2 then move marshall as the 5th starter, and it should bump the salary cap to 151 million then go after a leadoff hitter and move soriano down in the order, we should go after furcal, pierre, roberts, crisp, Orlando hudson, what do you think. someone will take marquis if we ask for nothing.

i agree ChiTownCubbies. Marquis has to go, i think. I am really not sure about the Dunn thing. I think we chould get Coco or maybe orlando hudson.

I LOVE the Abreau idea, but who will be leadoff then?

100,
No worries, just saying I have always agreed with you on that. I really liked Gallagher, but the Harden deal was too good to pass up.

Oh, I agree with you on all the prospects except Vitters...I think you have to keep him.

I think th cubs should try and retain dmpster and wood no matter the cost adm then try to move marquis and some how get a CF. Kotsay maybe?

"That is exactly right Aduncaroo...whether it's media or fans payroll needs to be seriously considered when talking offseason plans. The Cubs won't reach $150 mil, it seems."

Agreed 100%. Cubs fans read this before you come up with different scenarios for the '09 cubs.

"I head that the cubs will go no higher then 160-165 million so we have about 10-25 millions dollars to play with"
Really? And where did you hear this? NOTHING has suggested that this is even remotely possible. Sounds like wishful thinking, but it aint gonna happen. At the point of sounding redundant $140-$150 mil seems to be the reality.

"I also am really worried that if Dempster is going to require a 4/56 deal, that maybe we should take the picks...I was thinking that 4/48 would be the highest I would go..."

Agreed. If Wood and Dempster are to be resigned, I think its a forgone conclusion that both will be taking less $$$ to stay with the cubs than what other teams will be offering. Of the two, I think Dempster is gonna get blown away with a 4yr deal around $14 mil annually. I personally wouldnt do it, but some GM will. I think it would be hard for him to turn down, but we shall see.

as for prospects... ceda is a closer in the making, not a set up man. he will be brought up this year as a set man some time during the season.
there was also a good article on milb.com about starlin castro and how high wilken is on him.
also look for veal to be moved to a relief role and...if he can resume his command and control from a couple of years ago, become a lh reliever they can call on later in the year.
some other prospects to keep your eye on...
jay jackson (rose all the way to Hi A after being drafted in July)
robert hernandez (being tutored by zambrano)
rafael dolis (coming back from TJ)
dae-eun rhee (will miss most of season from TJ)
hung-wen chen
wellington castillo
andrew cashner
darwin barney (doesnt look like much, but has always been a winner)
nate spears
dan mcdaniel

I've always liked Hermida. I've mentioned previously a deal I'd love to see where we get Hermida and Jacobs. Jacobs could be expandable if Micah is ready after another season or so.

Do the cubs really think they can win a championship with Soriano and Aramis Ramirez who stop playing after 153 games and think they can immediatly turn it on in the playoffs?

i'm pretty sure pie is out of options. so it's either big league club or trade.

"I like the idea of trading Lee to Boston for Crisp and some prospects."

The Bosox dont need Lee... They already have Youk at 1st, and Papi at DH... You cant move Youk to 3rd cuz they have Lowell... That trade will never happen no matter how much you want Coco.

"I LOVE the Abreau idea, but who will be leadoff then?"

Why not have Abreu lead off? The guy has the speed and OBP to do it, and his power profile actually fits in nicely in that spot.

Crazy cub fan here, so here goes.
Personally, i want to keep Derrek Lee. I want the infield the same as it was this year...the only difference i desire from last year is in RF: Really want Bobby Abreu. .400 obp and decent in the field. Fuku/Reed Johnson can be the CF platoon. (1) Fuku is not going to the minors. (2) Pie is not going to get a shot.
Is there any value left in him to go out and get a lefty specialist? (or better, is there anyone willing to give one up for a Pie?)
My thoughts on the staff: Say no to demp at 14 mil/4 years. there's always a sabean out there to blow up the market, but he's not worth it for what past history has dictated. and i'm a proponent of no reliever being worth 10 mil a year. Even Kerry, and i love the guy as a cub. Marmol is less than 500k and can do a better job.

I was reading something and they said that IF Manny signs with the Mets, the Mets would be looking into trading an OF. Does anybody think Carlos Beltran? I think it said they would look into trading him. IF all of this really happends, does anybody think the Cubs might look into it, or not? Cubs do have some SP, dont know if the Mets would like them or not. What yall think??

yea but that is hella lot of money for the mets. They also are going to try to sign Fuentas (S/P). If they trade Delgado, Lee could fix that point.

DLee isn't going to Boston, trades are a two-way street. Still, consider trading him in the right deal if it saves money and if an acceptable replacement is available.

The Cubs aren't bringing back Juan Pierre, no matter how much $ LA kicks in.

Abreu or Ibanez should probably be the new left-handed hitter, both are good hitters, descent .OBP, a little power, and wouldn't cost the kind of money or years that an Adam Dunn would cost.

Don't resign Dempster for anything over $12 million or 3-4 years (preferably 3). Think about it, that's a contract that could turn out to be pretty bad in a year or two. If payroll is tight right now think what it will be like if Dempster is making $14 million a year and has reverted back to his previous state. It's just not a good idea to pay top dollar for career years. Career years get their names becuase that's as good as it's ever going to get. Don't overpay for it.

Bring back Wood. Marmol is great and he'll be great for awhile, however moving him to closer will take him out of the setup role that he's been so great at for the last two years. The Cubs aren't the Pirates, a top flight setup man isn't a luxury.

Hoffpauir off the bench, not as a starter. He's not a good replacement at 1b, he needs to take Ward's job, not Lee's.

Deal Marquis, even if the Cubs have to pay half his salary. Marshall, Gaudin or even Samardzija can do as good or better job and cost a fraction of what Marquis makes. Freeing up $5 million or more would help alot.

Move Fukudome to center, his bat is better suited as a CF anyway and he can play defense well enough. DeRo can play right if needed. Fontenot should be considered at 2b, his bat is plenty good enough and his defense is acceptable, if not great.

I'd consider Orlando Hudson, even if he had an off year defensively and has been injured each of the last two years. Forget Roberts, he'd cost too much as far as prospects go. If Hudson can be had at a reasonable price he'd be an asset to the team.

Furcal would be nice but probably won't happen. Theriot could slide over to second or hit the bench, or even be used as trade bait if anyone would have him.

I could go on....

Oh, and this comment system sucks. Took me three tries to finally get something up

My pitching rotation:
Z, Lilly, Harden, Marquis, Marshall. gaudin & Sam can be long men from the pen. Why does everyone hate Marquis? he's a quality innings eater. I think we should just save the Demp money. The more i think about it...if there is a fourth year, possibly even a third! We could be regretting for awhile.

"Quality innings eater"? Doesn't sound like that's worth $10 million per to me. Tim Wakefield is a quality innings eater and he's making $4 million. If a guy can't make the playoff rotation 3 years running he's probably not worth $10 million in this market.

I don't like the Randy Winn idea, just not a good enough player imho. I'd rather go with Ibanez or Abreu. Both can play right and are better left handed bats. Winn isn't a bad option I guess, just seems like there are better options available.

Damon isn't a great option either. He hits well enough but his defense just isn't acceptable anymore. Noodle arm, think Juan Pierre. Fukudome in his second year will likely hit better than he did this year, has a great arm and plays fine in the field. Haven't most Japanesse hitters gotten better in their second years (Ichiro, Matsui etc...)? Fukudome will likely have an .OPS > .800 in 2009, not bad for a CF.

pageian: Wakefield is not a fair comparison because he has basically had the same 1-year contract every year for the last 3-4. It's a special arrangement between him and Boston. I would argue that Jeff Suppan or Livan Hernandez are comparisons and they both make similar money.

"Trade Dempster. It's surprising he made it through last season. Get out while the getting is good."

Dempster is a free agent. He can sign anywhere.

Ok, Marquis is assumed to be one of the 'big contracts' traded. That is IF Hendry can find him a home and not have to eat too much of his money. They still need to move another 'big contract', unless I can't add.

I know these guys have NTC. Lee seems to be a popular choice. You have to look into it. My early guess is he does not get traded for a couple of reasons. Lou loves his club attitude and I doubt the Cubs get fair value. Soriano has that monster contract and would be really tough and close to impossible to move. Ramirez is your best clutch hitter (regular season) and would cause a huge hole to fill, so that makes no sense. You just signed Z (some say ace, others not) and he is a Hendry guy. Lilly is a stable lefty. DeRosa is that guy you plug anywhere. Fukodume has little to no trade value and I doubt Hendry would entertain that idea so quickly without giving him a chance to adjust his swing.

I guess nothing is off the table of discussion. If they re-sign Dempster and Wood and get (trade/FA) quality lefty bat, someone has to go. I don't see any of these guys as real easy trades, either. Lee makes the most sense, my early guess is he stays.

Try and trade D Lee, dont resign Ward use Haufpauir as yoour lefty bench. Payroll m will go up but try and sign Texiera. Leave Colvin alone he might have a position to play in a few years, however trade Vitters as he we be behind ARam for the forseeable future. DO NOT trade for Pierre all he does is steal 40 base medicore BA low AB% and no power.

ryno23-

Why would the Cubs trade Vitters? He had a great season in the minors. I know Ramirez is blocking him, but Vitters defense is poor, so he will likely play 1B or LF in the majors.

I'd like to move Lee if possible, but it probably won't happen. I would like to get a few good prospects for him, not current big league guys like Damon. Lee will probably finish his contract with the Cubs and will be replaced by Vitters.

Anyway, this is what I would do with next year's team if I were Hendry.

Roster (includes 1st-3rd string)

c-Soto/Blanco/Hill
1b-Lee/Hoffpauir/Derosa
2b-Fontenot/Derosa/Cedeno
3b-Ramirez/Derosa/Cedeno
ss-Theriot/Cedeno/Fontenot? (can he play short?)
lf-Soriano/Johnson/Derosa
cf-Johnson/Pie/Fukudome
rf-Derosa/Fukudome/Hoffpauir

Lineup

1.Theriot
2.Fontenot/Johnson
3.Soriano
4.Ramirez
5.Lee
6.Soto
7.Derosa/Fukudome
8.Johnson/Fontenot/Pie
9.Pitcher

Cubs4ever,

Looks like you have pretty much the same line up as last season. You must not feel Hendry can move a contract or even two or can spend the money to upgrade for a left handed bat. I agree they most likely do not move Vitters in a deal. He is too raw and needs to go through the growing pains. However, the right deal comes along and I say move him. Cub position prospects are not all cracked up to the potential, if you know what I mean.

Damon can't play CF anymore, and he never had the arm for RF. And the Cubs already have one fast guy in LF. Ibanez definitely can't play RF, and Abreu would be below-average in right, he played up in Yankee Stadium the last few years, though he's not a bad option.

I like the idea of Winn for the Cubs, He is durable has played over 150 games every year since 2002, solid AVG, solid OBP, a lot of 2Bs, not a big difference vs. LHPs and RHPs as a switch-hitter. He could fit in as the #2 hitter in this lineup, or even bat leadoff. It's worth inquiring for the Cubs in my opinion.

Please don't put Soriano at 3rd in the line up he strikes way to much and swings at everything. 5th would make a lot more sense.
Then this is what I would do.

Sign Hendry
Sign Dempster ( 4 year deal)
Sign Fuentes (4 year deal)
Sign Wood (2 year deal)
Sign Howry (1 year deal)

Trade Jason Marquis. Potentail Suitors- Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rockies, Rangers, Tigers.

Trade Rich Hill for possibly prospects. ( If he's even worth anything right now.)

The Rotation
SP- Carlos Zambrano
SP- Rich Harden
SP- Ted Lilly
SP- Ryan Dempster
SP- Sean Marshall

Bull Pen
RP- Neal Cotts
RP- Bob Howry
RP- Chad Gaudin
RP- Jeff Samrdzija
SU- Carlos Marmol
SU- Kerry Wood
CL- Brian Fuentes

The Line Up
Sign Reed Johnson (2 Year deal)
Sign Bobby Abreu or trade for Brian Roberts.
Sign Henry Blanco to a cheaper deal.

Line Up w/ Abreu
SS- Ryan Theriot
CF- Kosuke Fukudome
RF- Bobby Abreu
3B- Aramis Ramirez
LF- Alfonso Soriano
1B- Derrek Lee
C- Geovany Soto
2B- Mark DeRosa
Pitcher

Bench
SS- Ronny Cedeno
1B/OF- Micah Hoffpauir
2B- Mike Fontenot
OF- Reed Jonson
C- Henry Blanco

Line Up w/ Roberts
2B- Brian Roberts
SS- Ryan Theriot
1B- Derrek Lee
3B- Aramis Ramirez
LF- Alfonso Soriano
C- Geovany Soto
CF- Kosuke Fukudome
RF- Mark DeRosa
pitcher

i dont think the cubs are going to make many moves at all. the infield will stay the same other than fontenot getting more playing time at 2b. fukudome will still be your everyday rf. think of the effect moving him to another position would have, and you certainly cant trade him. so cf becomes the question. and in that case it is johnson and pie. i personally would not mind the cubs adding griffey jr and rocco baldelli. that gives plenty of room to move guys around and play hot hands. plus you get some speed and power between baldelli and griffey.

the cubs can not afford to trade away their prospects because you have so many guys that could be leaving over the next couple of years. lee, marquis, lilly, harden, johnson, gaudin, cotts. and ramirez has the option to opt out after 2010 if he wants. that is too many players to lose and not have a farm system to supplant them.

According to Keith Law, Colvin is nothing more than a 4th outfielder. I haven't seen anything that would lead me to disagree. I think it's a little early to expect anything out of him, if he' got any value on the trade market I say deal him. Thoughts?

There's a possibility that Colvin makes it to the Cubs roster sometime. He had a pretty good 2007 season. 08 was bad, but he changed his batting stance, and toward the end of the season he raised is average by about 20 points from his .233 average at the all star break. If he can still hit then he may make it to the big leagues. I think if he does good in winter league he goes to AAA.

oh, one more thing!

It's great to hear that Hill is doing good now. I'd love to see him back in the rotation next year.

Just imagine

09 rotation

Zambrano
Harden
Lilly
Dempster
Hill

09 pen

Guzman
Gaudin
Marshall
Cotts
Weurtz
Samarzija
Marmol
Wood

Maybe Ceda or Veal in the pen if there is room for one

If the cubs do not re-sign Dempster, they need to take a shot at CC!!

*** As Tim pointed out, resigning Dempster and Wood + other players will most certainly exceed the Cubs budget. ***

oops, sorry, in my above post, I meant sign Kerry for 3/27, not 3/9 xD

The concept of Samardzija as a SP on this team doesn't really jibe. This team's in "win-now" mode, and moving a MRP to the rotation over guys with a longer track record like Marshall would be the type of move that the Royals or Pirates make. If Marmol is the heir-apparent to Wood, Samardzija is the heir-apparent to Marmol's presumably-vacated primary set-up role. As such, he has tremendous value outside of the rotation.

I disagree with many of the other posters who presume that the Cubs will keep Wood. For a team with payroll limitations, $10mm for a closer is irrationally high, especially with such a dominant in-house option. There should be no sentimentality in this deal. I could deal with Wood in a Cardinals uniform. I could definitely deal with Wood rehabbing at a Cardinals training facility.