Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

"Wade will begin the offseason by attempting to re-sign Randy Wolf, Doug Brocail, and LaTroy Hawkins. That alone could result in '09 salaries of $15MM+."

I know they need this pitching depth, but wouldn't $15MM+ be better spent for this team on another front-line starter to join Oswalt. I think A.J. Burnett would fit that bill for them to have a dominant top 2 spots on the pitching staff.

where do you see "It's possible to envision the pitching staff working out, but the offense is a question mark" Wasn't it the offense that carried us to the second best record after the break? wasn't it the pitching that was almost dead last before the break? I know neither one are extraordinary but I would say (in my opinion) that unless pitching is analyzed this year, the pitching is in question. I am mostly happy with the offense with the exception of a tweak or two.

Everything I have read on astros.com and chron.com has said that Q is the likely backup for a new addition unless Towles earns the job in Spring training. I'm not very confident he will be able to learn to hit the ball the other way in 1 offseason. I think he is destined for another year at AAA.

So another year of Baby Bourn leading off/as the #8 hitter? (those two things should not be used to describe the same person

Im glad we traded Lidge for our pinch-runner of the future.

Considering that this was the first year after Tejada's Age-Gate and Mitchell Report appearance, esp. since he was one of the more prominent players in the report, I'm curious to hear what some people think about his value today? Is he an asset still or a liability? Apparently it sounds like he can still play short. He started out of the gate pretty strong but then had streaks and slumps. Overall the numbers were above average but the power slipped.

I hope the Astros give Towles another shot starting. He will be 25 next year. He was horrible in 171 plate appearances with the Astros (.137/.250/.253) but his .157 BABIP indicates some bad luck was involved. His LD% was very low so he would have had a low BABIP regardless, but .157 is just silly low. Then they could save a million or 2 they might otherwise spend on a backup. He did fine at AAA and I think he'll be pretty close to average (at worst) if given another shot.

The only other question mark on offense is CF. If Bogusevic has a good performance over the winter, I could see them letting him, Bourn, and Erstad battle it out in spring training. Bogusevic hit .371/.447/.556 in 124 at-bats at AA. Nice showing, but he is not that good (small sample size and luck) and its hard to believe he would be ML ready after pitching exclusively the last couple years. Still, he can handle CF and its hard to believe he could be much worse than Bourn/Erstad. Still, given that the Astros have 3 options, I don't think it is worth trying to bring in a free agent CF.

The exception might be getting Jerry Hairston Jr. or Willie Bloomquist to platoon. Laught all you want, but Bogusevic, Bourn, and Erstad are all lefties. Bloomquist is a righty with pretty good splits against lefties over his career (.278/.339/.362, with his OBP over .360 the last 4 years). Sadly, it would be an upgrade over leaving Bourn or Erstad in there against lefties.

The rotation is tougher. Oswalt is still an OK #1 (no longer an ace) and he might be more like a #2. Wandy is a good #3 or a weak #2. I wouldn't trust the rest of the rotation any further than I can throw it.

It looks like the Astros only have enough cash to go after 1 mid-rotation starter. I have always liked Wolf and he has more upside than a typical mid-rotation starter, but he also has a lot of downside (injury). Still, I wouldn't go more than 2 years on him and he can probably find 3 years elsewhere.

But if they are thinking of paying Randy Wolf $20 million over 2 years (which is a minimum it probably takes after Silva, Lohse, etc.), why not just chase someone more dependable like Lowe or with more upside like Burnett and back-load his contract a little.

Tejada, Wigginton, and Valverde are all coming off the books after 2009 which will free up more than $25 million if they want to get creative. $60 million (or higher) over 4 years for either Lowe or Burnett shouldn't be a problem. Just make the first year $10-12 million and then split the rest evenly.

If Randy Johnson doesn't go back to the D-Backs, he would be a great fit. It would only take a 1-year deal and the Astros could pay him plenty. Hell, flags fly forever and if they could get Randy and Lowe for $25 million next year, I think they suddenly become NL Central favorites. Maybe it is a big 1-year increase, but with this proposal, RJ, Tejada, Valverde, and Wigginton would all be gone after 2009.

I thought there were a lot of rumors about the Astros wanting Sheets?

Oh an mymrbig, Oswalt was 10-2 with a 2.24 ERA in the 2nd half. He was hurt in the first half. I still say he is one of the top pitchers in baseball and easily an ace in every sense of the word.

We cant afford to give Bourn another chance. He was god awful. We cant keep playing the guy with the lowest OPS in the league. I suggest spending a little $ on a bat. Adam Dunn is very well possible.

He’s from Houston, he’s always spoken highly of the Astros, there has been rumored mutual interest since early in his Reds career, etc. Considering the Astros always seem to make 1 big move every offseason, this could very well be it.

And before anybody yells at me saying the Astros need an arm more than they do a bat, we were above league average in pitching categories, and below league average in batting categories. Berkman and Lee are awesome, but the offense isnt great.

Forgot about Danks on the White Sox, so don't know that Oswalt is their clear #1, though he would be #1 based on experience.

I never understood where the whole "Luke Scott can't play defense" thing originated. I don't have access to his +/- numbers (any help Tim?). But over the past 3 years, he has been about league average according to his RZR (THT), ZR (ESPN), RF/9 (baseball-reference), and SFR (Dan Fox of Baseball Prospectus ran a beta version of the 2007 numbers that put Scott amongst the best RF in the majors). Scott kills righties but does struggle against lefties.

That said, I think the Astros clearly lost the Tejada trade. And the Lidge trade. And the Valverde trade (Qualls was just as valuable and cost 1/2 as much). And the Villareal trade.

So um, how'd that Lidge for Bourn trade work out?

Anyone here who didn't know that Michael Bourn was a bad hitter raise your hand. Go on...... we're waiting....

Maybe someone should have told Ed Wade, because he obviously didn't know. But then again, there's a lot he doesn't know, like not to piss off Shawn Chacon.

It's so much fun to have a stooge like Wade in the drivers seat of a team that you don't like. Nothing personal Astro fans but I have a feeling that things are going to get a lot worse for you before things will get better. Don't be fooled by your second half surge, the Astros are a team that seems perilously close to a complete and total collapse, a la Seattle.

C - J.R. Towles
C - Josh Bard
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Kaz Matsui
SS - Miguel Tejada
3B - Adrian Beltre
IF - Geoff Blum
IF - David Newhan
LF - Carlos Lee
CF - Hunter Pence
RF - Juan Rivera/Luis Gonzalez
OF - Darin Erstad
OF - Reggie Abercrombie
SP - Roy Oswalt
SP - Ben Sheets
SP - Wandy Rodriguez
SP - Brandon Backe
SP - Brian Mohler

RP - Jose Valverde
RP - Geoff Geary
RP - Tim Byrdak
RP - Wesley Wright
RP - Fernando Nieve
RP - Chad Cordero

*trade Michael Bourn for Chad Cordero
*trade Alberto Aria,Felipe Paulino, cash for Adrian Beltre
*sign Ben Sheets
*move Pence to CF and sign a veteran outfielder like Juan Rivera or Luis Gonzalez

The Astros' team OBP and SLG numbers are really hurt by missing Lee and Wigginton for significant time.

BaseballFanatic40 - you must be on drugs. Chad Cordero is going to be released by the Nats (they announced it months ago), so he will be a free agent. He is also coming off an injury. Your Beltre proposal is not nearly enough for hi, unless the Mariners' new GM is a fool. Pence was pretty poor defensively in CF. Rivera would be an interesting signing, but Luis Gonzalez is way, way past his prime and has a terrible, terrible arm. Signing him to play RF would be utter foolishness. Nice tries though.

maybe your the one taking drugs...but i have never taken them a day in my life...