Braves Preparing Five-Year Offer For Burnett

Wren's making his move. Interesting that the article says talks for Peavy between the Padres and Cubs aren't happening anymore.

uh it says that talks for peavy between the padres and BRAVES are dead. the cubs seem to be very much in it

Read the Feinsand article...he says the Cubs are out of it. I'm guessing he's relying largely on that report from ESPN the other day, so I don't know how much stock I'd put in it, but he still says it.

I think the report that the Braves will offer Burnett five years is spurious.

I guess the million dollar question is: If you're willing to go 4 years then why not go 5? I have mixed feelings about the possibility of Burnett slipping thru the Yanks hands. In one sense you can easily be romanticized by Burnett's stuff. I get a chubby thinking of the possibility of a rotation that MIGHT include CC, Wang, Burnett, Joba and Pettitte/Hughes. Than can be a dominating rotation with a 1-4 staff than bring the 95 mile an hour heat. However, reality sets in that Burnett is less than a reliable guy in terms of his health. I don't think it's a coincidence that his 2 best years came as he was headed into free agency.

I guess the million dollar question is: If you're willing to go 4 years then why not go 5? I have mixed feelings about the possibility of Burnett slipping thru the Yanks hands. In one sense you can easily be romanticized by Burnett's stuff. I get a chubby thinking of the possibility of a rotation that MIGHT include CC, Wang, Burnett, Joba and Pettitte/Hughes. Than can be a dominating rotation with a 1-4 staff than bring the 95 mile an hour heat. However, reality sets in that Burnett is less than a reliable guy in terms of his health. I don't think it's a coincidence that his 2 best years came as he was headed into free agency.

two words bub: carl pavano

tsweet,

That's $59 million and the Braves would still have a hole in LF. I think its pretty clear that the Braves plan is to get either Peavy or Burnett, but not both. You're looking at something along the lines 160 million committed to just those two over the next 5 years if you want both. If we can sign Burnett, I don't see any reason to give up the prospects and payroll flexibility to get Peavy.

I've always admired the Braves and there ability to get the most out of a pitcher (Jamie Wright and Russ Ortiz). I've always liked Vasquez stuff. It wouldn't surprise me if, with run support, he won 18 games next year for the Braves. He should really benefit from a return back to the NL.

What are the odds of Hudson or Smoltz returning next year? If they can field a staff with Burnett, Vasquez, Jurgens, Hansen and a healthy Hudson/Smoltz or Campillo/Morton they could be very competetive.

"I guess the million dollar question is: If you're willing to go 4 years then why not go 5?"

Law of Diminishing Returns. Burnett opens next season as a 32 year old power pitcher. 32-34 tends to be last of the prime years for power pitchers and if they have Burnett's history odds are it can end sooner. Power pitchers like Johnson, Schilling, Clemens (if you discount the drug rumors), Moose etc are rare birds who can count on the K beyond 35. Point being age 35 is expected to be a worse contract value for a team and likewise age 36 is supposed to be worse. So Law of Diminishing Returns. It comes down to the odds are Burnett won't be worth his contract in the last of a 4 year deal... therefore odds are even better of him not being worth his contract in the last year of a 5 year deal.

As far as the Cubs "Being Very much in [Peavy Trade talks]": If the Cubs are in it, then just about every other team could be considered in "it" too.

There's only a few teams that don't have the young talent to match and beat whatever trade offer the Cubs put on the table.

Yeah I know....Carl freakin Pavano. But still. Imagine going into a Boston series being able to put POSSIBLY (save all the hate posts), CC, Wang, Burnett and Joba on the mound....whew.

Every decent pitcher in free agency is going to go as far as they can...I'm sure a team will give Burnett a 5th year.

If the Yankees are willing to go 4 would they let 1 year get in the way of getting a deal done?

If they lose Burnett, then they will have to give Lowe a 4 year deal I'm sure...

With the addition of Vasquez and possibly Burnett are the Braves 1 year or 2 years aways from being serious NL East contenders? I still think they need a rebound from Francoer and another big bat in the lineup.

YanksFan:

I'm not going to say Burnett is a sure thing, or even that he's an ace! But, name me one top pitcher available that is a sure thing to not have surgery in the future? I get that Burnett has a long list of injuries, but the main one happened a few years ago and he pitches now, instead of being just a flame thrower, which could be why he had so many injuries... I don't know.

McCann already has a long term deal. He has a club option for 2013.

Not to turn this into a Yankee post board or anything but signing Man-NY would be contingent on them making some moves that they can't make (trading Matsui) or don't want to make (trading Damon your only proven lead hitter).

PhilsFan:

I agree that Peavy AND Burnett wouldn't happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if we do end up with Furcal, Burnett, and a power bat. They could sign Burnett, trade Escobar and a low prospect for a bat, and still have enough for Furcal. That is if Furcal is not signed by the A's or whoever by then, but you get my point, right?

''Not to turn this into a Yankee post board or anything but signing Man-NY would be contingent on them making some moves that they can't make (trading Matsui) or don't want to make (trading Damon your only proven lead hitter).''

Yup, tell that to the rest of the Yankee brethren that think the Yankees have room to sign Manny and Teixeira by housing two separate teams, one at the old Stadium and one at the new one (which clearly would be the stadium where the all-stars like Manny, A-Rod, Jeter, and Teixeira will play).

"are you forgetting the whole NTC thing?"

No. Are you forgetting that there are other teams in the league beside the Cubs? Sure there are teams he won't go to, but you got to think that of the few that he would go to they would be able to match the Smardzja, Vitters, Pie, mediocre offer the Cubs have on the table.

I mean honestly, Pie? yeah he might be good, but nothign worth trading a Cy Young winner.

Brian,

absolutely they can do that, but Furcal's almost gone by most accounts which then puts that theory out of whack. I don't know why they didn't try to add in Escobar from their end and Dye from the White Sox end to get the outfield bat they need. That might've been a good fit without considering righty/left additions etc.

But won't Burnett insist upon a no-trade clause as most FAs do nowadays? And wasn't that the sticking point with the Peavy trade?

Trading Matsui is not easy at all. He is aging, had 2 knee surgeries, makes $13 million and has a full NTC.

I would say that trading him is extremely difficult at best.

the heyman article says towers "main focus" is now the cubs.... so who is right? heyman or feinsand?

do you mean that bc there is insurance money to pay hudson, that that allows them to use the money they woulda paid him to pay someone else? bc again unless the injury ends his career his contract goes back on the books as soon as he takes a rehab assignment.

I believe Wren is playing this out perfectly. By leaking to the media that he is preparing to offer a 5-year contract to Burnett, he puts even more pressure on Towers. If Towers doesn't pull the trigger, then Wren will sign Burnett. If Towers calls, Wren will get Peavy, possibly for slightly less than his last offer.

If given the choice, I'd rather have Peavy. But either way we should end up with our ace and can then focus on the offense.

Ouch, that was a bad math fudge up on my part. Anyways, I think the point still stands that 49 million is too much to spend on just those 4 spots.

As for why the Braves didn't include Escobar to get Dye, I think its clear that they only want to move Escobar if it lands them the pitching help they need or if it lands them a good, cheap option for the OF. If the Braves had included Escobar in return for Dye, that'd already be 20+ million in payroll the Braves would have added along with another 10 million or so to sign Furcal or Renteria. So that's 30-35 million spent already and you've seriously hindered your chances post 2010 (when we'd lose Vazquez and Dye). There's also still a big hole in the rotation that the Braves would have to fill on the FA market after givig up so much for Vazquez and Dye. Just wouldn't make any sense from the Braves side.

basicslop.

you are correct that any number of teams could beat the cubs offer, but right now those other teams Peavy doesn't want to go to right now. Not only will it cost the team prospects but it will cost the team something additional for them to get Peavy to waive his NTC.

As a Cubs fan the players being mentioned besides Vitters are not great, but if that ends up being his only offer on the table that Peavy will except right now, does he do the deal or take an unhappy Peavy into camp with the hope that he will change his mind at some point and allow himself to be traded anywhere not named SD?

Unfortunetly for the GM's when the give the NTC's they take away a lot of thier power in swinging a deal, something a Mr. Hendry is going to find out in a couple of years as all these players start to slide and he can't move them.

I have a very hard time believing Hendry has just all of a sudden decided to give up on getting Peavy.

He doesn't operate that way.

And besides, what has changed in the last week or two to make getting Peavy any more difficult or unlikely?

If the two teams were still talking after the Dempster signing, then they're still talking now.

5 years is pretty scary but the braves have put themselves in a position where they have to overpay because they have fallen pretty far in recent years and have always depended on their big guns taking hometown discounts to stay. Nobody wants to take less to play somewhere and lose. The Vasquez thing is great to me though it's just like with stocks you buy low and sell high, Vasquez is coming off a bad season but he is in the past a very good starter and Flowers who has never even played AA ball had an incredible fall but not outstanding season in A ball (.288, 17 hr). He had almost as many hr in AZ as he did all season. B Lill was the only part were we really sold low, if we moved him last year the return would have been far better but I think he was exposed for what he really was, Ryan Freel (at the very best that is what he can expect to be).

yes but this "extra" money only applies for this year as hudson would be healthy by the next. how many one year deals they palnning on signing? i guess my point is that this 40 to 45 million they have has nothing to do with hudson and his injury doesnt help in anyway at least certainly not past this year

I think they're contenders right now.

Take the insurance money from Huddy, and put it towards the bullpen. If the insurance company pays 6-8MM, that's more than enough to fix the pen. Other teams have fixed their pens on the cheap. Whoever loses out on the rotation between Morton/Reyes, if not both, should get a shot at the pen. The LOOGYs are taken care of with Logan/O'Flaherty/Boyer maybe. Let Ohman walk, he's not effective against RHB, and go after Juan Cruz or another righty reliever. This provides depth to Acosta, Gonzalez, Soriano, and Moylan, the latter two returning from injury.

I was just thinking of the 'Brav-os' and when will they make their serious run at Burnett. I did not think they would offer 5 years. Scary stuff.

I noticed the line about the Braves and Cubs ending Peavy talks.

Who is DOB?

David O'brien ... He is the Braves beat writer for the Atlanta Journal. Has a great blog with lots of updates.

Dont have a link. It was from a blog a while back. But I know for sure the Braves received insurance for Hampton over the years. It seems likely the Yanks got some money for Pavano.

I'm still infuriated about the situation with Peavy. The Braves were pretty much willing to give up anybody but Hanson & KT's still deedledooing around. I find it interesting that the 2 teams most involved in Peavy talks with Towers are pretty much out. Hmmmmm, could that be because Kevin Towers is the biggest duuche in baseball?

Brian, now that I know you're THAT Brian...you need to grow up man.

How is music liberal? Hippie, I can see, but liberal? That's like saying "that song's got a nice conservative vibe to it".

CMM - all teams have a fraction of each players' salary insured. It would be impossible to cover all of it, but most estimates I've seen are between 40% and 50%. Hudson's salary is a non-factor for the Braves this off season.

you cant make a general statement that insurance only applies to retired players. it depends on how the policy was written and who underwrites it. the yanks woulda had to pay pavano out of pocket bc they didnt have a policy written on his contract. if the bravos have one taken out on hudson, depending on how it was written, it would pay all or part of the salary he is due while he is on the disabled list. thats it. no more. no free money.

No offense, but without a link and some evidence I find it difficult to believe that insurance is paying for anything. I have only heard of insurance paying back a SMALL portion of a contract for a player who's career was over due to an injury (Bagwell and Bell I believe are 2 examples).

Beat writers can say whatever they want on their blog without having to check sources. In fact, Dan O'brien is the same guy who blogged that Tex wasn't as good as people think becasue the Braves were under .500 while he was with them and then in the next paragraph waxed poetically about how the Braves' outfield was hitting with zero power. maybe he should have stepped back and realized that Tex mashed and the Braves were losing becasue of poor-hitting OF'ers and an injured pitching staff.

Baleen:

Lyrics tell the tale...

It is very difficult to get any insurance for guys, especially pitchers or guys who have a histroy of injury. The cost is so prohibitive that it isn't worth it for the team. Team do not routinely get money from insurance companies when players are on the DL. That is why there is so much rick for a team to sign a guy with a history of injury. The insurance companies ding them with a "pre-existing condition" label and they are on the hook for zero. What MLB pitcher doesn't have a "pre-existing condition" for injury? They are all banged-up and mangled from pitching for so long.

Insurance is neglibile, if anything to the Braves for Hudson.

and even if it pays out we all know how long it takes insurance companies to cough up cash. you brought up bagwell earlier.... didnt the astros have to take the company to court to get them to pay out.

bjsguess,

We won't be disappointed that we didn't give the farm to land Peavy.

tsweet and Brian - - STOP IT. Don't tell these heathens about the MIB blog! We're already around 1000 today!

The Braves would be crazy to sign Burnett on a five year deal (any team btw). Not that he is a bad pitcher, but he has earned a lot of frequent flyer miles with his travels to the DL.

Usually the Law of Diminishing Returns applies to players on their way up, not on their way down in performance.

Of course Harden is an ace when he is healthy....which he hasn't been much over the past 3+ years. That is why he came at a discount.

It has nothing to do with "hating" the Cubs. It has to do with not believing that the Cubs have enough in their farm system for a match with the Padres. Just becasue you don't like hearing it doesn't mean it isn't true and it it doesn't mean that the person delivering the analysis (which is pretty accurate) hates the Cubs.

Too bad the only way they will get Burnett is offering a 5 yr deal. I hope he doesnt turn out to be a Hampton with his injuries. If he stays healthy he is a good SP. I think him and Lowe are about even. Lowe is less risky but doesn't seem to want to come to ATL.

burnetts agent is probably cracking up say "hahaha, suckers!"

Sorry ! Question here.

So if the Braves first round pick is protected, then the Blue Jays would get the Braves second round pick and a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds ???

So the higher pick is the sandwich pick then right ?

What happends if the Braves sign another A from a team worse then the Jays. Do they lose out on the second round pick and instead get an additional sandwich rounder ?????

Any help would be very appreciated.