Brewers No Longer Interested In Dunn

I know many people aren't big on Dunn, but I would consider him. Play him in left this year, then move him to first following Delgado's departure.

Picture this lineup:
Reyes-SS
Beltran-CF
Wright-3B
Dunn-LF
Delgado-1B
Church-RF
Castillo/Murphy-2B
Schneider/Castro-C

Probably won't happen, but with no moves going on I have nothing better to do than waste time thinking up scenarios.

I didnt think Cameron was going to stay in Milwaukee, but at appears he is as is Fielder. Dunn is having quite a time finding a new place. Shows you what a lot of KKK's at the plate will do. I am sure he will play somewhere, but less than what he wants..

Unfortunately for you Teetz1, Hart isn't that good. '07 was a career year.

He reminds me of a fast Sexton. :)

Would the Braves make sense for Dunn?

Richie Sexson was a comp for Hart while the latter was in the minors. I think it was more a body type comparison, but still, last couple years notwithstanding Sexson was a great player for a while.

People need to stop acting like Dunn is the only major league player to strike out over 150 times a year, or that he strikes out 200 times a season on average.

For the last three seasons Dunn has struk out around 165 times a year. Not great but it also doesn't make him the poster boy for strike outs. He was 5th in the NL last year, and a case could be made that he could have been sixth provided Cameron played a full year.

Adam Dunn is very much like Ryan Howard just without the joys of playing around Chase Utley and Pat Burrell. Dunn usually got Brandon Phillips, the artist formally known as Ken Griffey Jr, and David Ross.

Dunn also isn't a horrible fielder, he'll never be great even average is a reach but with a very good CF he's fine in LF.

Just getting tired of seeing the same arguements bashing Dunn like he's some guy that hits 20 homers while hitting .200 and striking out 250 times a year.

Ranks right up there with him not liking baseball.

If Richie Sexson landed in the right spot and get himself right again I think he could be a very nice bargin signing for some team. I think Safeco messed him up pretty good.

schellis, you helped my cause.

With Dunn in left, Beltran can shade left due to the range and ability of Church.

Omar, it would work!

I've been on an anti-Dunn kick lately, I must admit. But it has more to do with how much I think he's being overvalued by the internet community than anything. I feel like Dunn has become "so underrated he's overrated" at this point, and the market is doing a much better job of evaluating him than we are. A few people pointed out that he looked like a decent bargain, and all of a sudden all we look at are his strengths and none of his faults.

Sure, he gets on base A LOT and hits plenty of HR, but he has some pretty severe faults too. Striking out 165 times isn't something to just brush aside because he "does it less than Ryan Howard did" (Howard's even more overrated in a lot of ways, but for what its worth, his career ISO is also .030 points higher, and the ballpark is no excuse since Dunn's played all his career home games in Great American Bandbox or Chase as well). We're talking about a guy who fails to put the ball in play in 32% of his PAs.

For a lineup that's built to manufacture runs at least as much as hit HR (such as the Mets), having a hitter who is going to be a valueless out one third of the time is a significant detriment, even if he produces a positive outcome equally as often.

For a team that's going to rely on middle of the order speed to make up for its lack of bottom of the order pop (again, like the Mets), putting a guy who runs like an overweight sea turtle in the #5 or #6 spot is going to make it much more difficult to score once you get past his spot in the batting order. The other option, hitting Dunn second, actually makes more sense, IMO, but putting a TTO hitter behind Reyes and ahead of other good runners like Wright and Beltran still doesn't help as much as you'd think. It reduces the value of the entire team running game. Even if Dunn takes lots of pitches, Reyes is nearly as likely to score from first as he is from second during a Dunn PA anyway, and he'll rarely be advancing from second to third on one of Dunn's outs. And Wright and Beltran will have far fewer running opportunities with Dunn moving base-to-base ahead of them. Obviously, Dunn's HR and OBP are worth more than all these SB, but the final product is closer to the difference between the two than it is to adding them together.

I'm not saying Dunn has negative value, I just think his value is less positive than almost anyone I've talked to on any internet space lately. For the purposes of a team like the Mets, I don't think Dunn creates any more positive value than say, Bobby Abreu, who may not have as much power, but he has the same OBP cache, and actually does things like put the ball in play, gives you decent speed, and enhances the running game elsewhere. In Abreu's case, the final product is closer to simply adding his value to the seven other hitters in the Mets lineup. With Dunn, there are lots of small things you have to account for in the negative, and the final value just isn't as high as his OPS+ or HR total would suggest.

BTW, I am not calling Dunn lazy or passionless, or questioning his love of the game. I'm just pointing out that he's an extreme outlier and shouldn't be evaluated by traditional standards. He's multiple standard deviations away from the top of the bell curve (on either side) in almost every significant category. You just can't evaluate a player like that by the same standard as most others, that's what I'm saying.

Its been shown at various places that Dunn is a solid baserunner. Also guys without passion aren't in the lineup every day like Dunn is. He's just not the type that shows alot of passion on the field.

As for the strike outs what I meant is that Dunn isn't the only one that k's at his rates and there are alot of players that are highly valued even though they do strike out at that rate. Guys like Gradey Sizemore for instance, on a less scale Dan Uggla, and Ryan Howard.

Dunn didn't hit behind the number 1 and 2 hitters. He's routinely been used in the 5 or lower slots. The guys usually ahead of him were a aging Griffey that couldn't do anything and routinely ended innings and either EE or BP, EE was especially bad when he was in one of his month long can't hit even .150 stretches.

I believe that Dunn for a time was the leader in most times leading off a inning not counting leadoff hitters or something of that nature.

Melvin states he wants good young pitching-

Their is no better suitor than the red sox who need a big bat after not getiing TEX

If not Prince Fielder, I could see the red sox interested in jj Hardy

Posted by: Baldelli | January 16, 2009 at 10:45 AM

I can't get my head around why anyone (writers/fans) seem to think the Red Sox "need" a big bat.

Their lineup is one of the best in baseball and Teixeira was a "luxury" they tried to add not a "need."

Sure Jason Bay isn't Manny Ramirez but the guy has 3, 30 HR/100RBI seasons and is just 29yrs old.

Toss in Youkilis really came into his own last year and increased his power and no the Red Sox don't need a power bat and Prince Fielder is hardly worth giving up a thing to get considering it would displace Youk to 3rd and force the Sox to deal Lowell.

The Red Sox didn't go after Teixeira because they felt they had a need for a bat, they went after Teixeira because he was 28yrs old with a solid long term career ahead of him and he plays great defense while also being a solid team player.

Those guys don't come along everyday so when they do you get flexible in trying to squeeze them in but by no means was he a "need."

Oh yeah, one more thing about Dunn.

On May 25th last year, when Jeff Keppinger was injured, guess WHO was leading the Reds in RBI's? Jeff Keppinger.

At that time, Keppinger had 3 Home Runs and 21 RBI's while Dunn had 6 Home Runs and 19 RBI's.

The FUNNY thing about this is that Keppinger had most of his At Bats from the number two spot in the order while Dunn had most of his At Bats from the nubmer five spot in the order.

This means in some Innings, Keppinger had the Pitcher and Corey Patterson batting in front of him while Dunn had KGJ and Brandon Phillips.

WHO do you think was getting on base more often in front of whom?

Just who were the Reds 1-2 hitters in 2007 because they had six different people bat leadoff and eleven different ones bat second?

"So thos hitters WERE getting on base. It was Dunn's low Batting Average with RISP that caused him to NOT have as many RBI's as he should have."

So wait, you're actually complaining that Dunn was in the top 10 in the NL in RBI's?

No, Dunn doesn't have a great average with RISP and its a slight knock against him. His OPS is almost identical with RISP, though, and the lack of average isn't why he doesn't get as many RBI's, its the fact that he simply doesn't get as many at bats with runners on.

If we use your 07 season as an example, the league leader in RBI's was Matt Holiday with 137. Thats 31 more RBI's than Dunn picked up. Of course, he also had 40 more plate appearances with RISP.

If we extrapolate Dunn's rate of knocking in RISP per plate appearance out to the number of at bats that Holliday received, that would have given Dunn 118 RBI's on the season. While that doesn't make up the entire difference, it does make up a good portion of it, showing that Dunn's lack of average with RISP isn't as detrimental compared to his peers as one would think.

hrm. maybe Dunn might want to finally consider coming down from that 4-year demand and take a 2-year deal.

In order for the Brewers to make a push for the wild card I think they're best bet is to use that money they were thinging about spending on Dunn on a starting pitcher and a relief pitcher and then trade Prince for another starting pitcher.

They also should stop trading top prospects for one year rentals. They're not a big market club. They've done a great job at being a small market club. If they stick to what they're good at then they'll be owning the division in a few years.

"The guys usually ahead of him were a aging Griffey that couldn't do anything and routinely ended innings and either EE or BP"

Junior had a .355 OBP while in Cincy, hardly anything to sneeze at. Conor Jackson's .376 OBP didn't exactly suck either.