Phillies Arb: Howard, Victorino, Werth

"So what is Howard seeking $15-18M?"

I think he'll shoot for something in that range. I think he'll get around 15 million, though he probably shouldn't.

I don't think Howard is worth 18 million a year. 12 million a year seems reasonable but not very much more than that.

Madson and Scott Boras are watching Juan Cruz very closely. He's got the "setup man who could be an elite closer" sales pitch, but it hasn't landed him a contract yet. Of course he's suffering from the D'Backs' having offered him arbitration, which means he'll cost a compensation pick. Looking at the market, Cruz might get something around that 3/$12M deal, but he's running out of landing places for a bigger contract.

Cruz has some big advantages over Madson right now - 3 years of elite ERA and K/9 numbers out of the pen, rather than the 3 months of brilliance Madson had after being merely decent before that. Another year of excellence would put Madson in much better position, but as Boras no doubt knows, relief numbers vary widely from season to season, and a couple of bad outings could trash Madson's ERA very quickly.

As Cruz is finding out now, it's hard to get closer bucks without having "proven" yourself in the role already. The Phils' 3/$12M offer would take Madson through Lidge's last two years of his contract, plus perhaps one year of closing if Lidge isn't brought back on the club option after that (or more if Lidge gets injured). It might be his best shot at gaining the closer tag before hitting the open market.

i wonder if the economy/reduced spending by most teams outside of the Bronx will make Rhyno reduce his figure so that he doesn't lose his arbitration case? Maybe the Phils offer 13 and Howard asks for $16

"The new Phillies GM has the dubious distinction of giving 49 year old Moyer 15 million and signing 40 year old Ibanez for 3 years at premium market dollars."

Ibanez is 36, not 40 and Moyer is 46 (still old) not 49. Ibanez is overpaid based on the market right now and the Phillies didn't need another LH bat, but it was hard to say no to Moyer's numbers in 2008.