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« Odds & Ends: Sheffield, Morillo, Perdomo | Main | Zimmerman Talks On Hold »
Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers
Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Brewers. Here's what we wrote about them on October 16th. Changes for 2009:
Additions: Trevor Hoffman, Braden Looper, Jorge Julio, R.J. Swindle, Chase Wright, Craig Counsell (re-signed), Joe Koshansky, Casey McGehee, Chris Duffy, Chris Capuano (re-signed), Wes Littleton. Midseason: Todd Coffey
Subtractions: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Gabe Kapler, Russell Branyan, Ray Durham, Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota, Brian Shouse, Eric Gagne
The Brewers' batting lineup remains unchanged for 2009 (GM Doug Melvin decided not to trade Mike Cameron). They ranked 7th in the NL last year with 4.63 runs scored per game. Using CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool, the Brewers project to score 4.86 runs per game in '09. The projection system sees better seasons from Hart, Braun, Fielder, Weeks, and Hall.
It will be impossible to replicate the 3.86 ERA posted by last year's starters. 329 of the rotation's 983.3 innings came from Sabathia and Sheets at a 2.52 ERA. Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra form an interesting front two, but Melvin's main import was Looper for $4.75MM after his bid to retain Sabathia fell short. Using a rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Looper, and Wright, I tweaked CHONE's innings totals and arrived at a projected 4.44 ERA for the '09 rotation.
The bullpen, which posted a 3.89 ERA in 472.3 innings last year, has been overhauled again. Many of last year's offenders are gone, with Hoffman signed to take over closing duties once he's healthy. Julio was also added to the mix. Carlos Villanueva quietly posted a 2.12 ERA and 4.43 K/BB ratio in 59.3 relief innings last year. All in all, the '09 bullpen projects to a 3.84 ERA. The Brewers' defense was third in the NL last year according to The Fielding Bible II. The defense remains the same, except for subtractions of Kapler, Branyan, and Durham.
So perhaps the Brewers will score more runs, but the main difference is obviously their rotation. Right now they project as an 85 win team, which should keep them in the wild card race.
Bottom line: The Brewers did little to replace Sabathia and Sheets. But with a breakout or two and/or another big summer trade, the Brewers may return to the playoffs in 2009.
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The team is good, but the rotation just isn't deep enough to win the division.
Gallardo and Parra have big upside, but if they don't have huge seasons, then there's no way that the Brewers come close to contending. Bush, Looper and Suppan are all pretty mediocre, and only Bush seems capable of being anything more than a solid 4/5 starter.
I just don't see how this team contends for the division without the addition of a quality starter at some point during the season.
Posted by: scribbletone | April 06, 2009 at 01:03 PM
I thought Koshansky was a Ranger
Posted by: charlie | April 06, 2009 at 01:09 PM
I see them as a fourth place team in the central. Both their rotation and bullpen are average at best, and their offense, while it has some very good hitters, has some weak spots as well.
The team is nothing to write home about, and I'd be surprised if they finish ahead of the Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds
Posted by: defense | April 06, 2009 at 01:09 PM
Koshansky got claimed by the Brewers, after Texas had claimed him from Colorado. He's had a bit of traveling to do lately.
And I agree, that right now the Brewers look like a 3rd or 4th place team depending on what happens for each team pitching-wise, except for the Astros and Pirates, who seem like locks to finish 5th and 6th.
Posted by: scribbletone | April 06, 2009 at 01:10 PM
Playoffs for the Brewers? You really are a glass half-full kinda guy, Tim.
Posted by: Umair | April 06, 2009 at 01:27 PM
When Jeff Suppan is your #1 starter, its over. Their window was 2008, and they missed it. They are probably just one of those teams that struggles for years, gets one chance at a Championship, and then we don't here from them for another 10 years.
Posted by: XxRyana.k.a.RufusxX | April 06, 2009 at 01:39 PM
Does anyone else find it surprising that a lineup with Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Weeks, and Cameron was only good for 7th in the NL for runs scored?
Posted by: terrasaire | April 06, 2009 at 01:48 PM
I would really be surprised if they made the playoffs this year, or even finished over .500.
They have an entire rotation of 3-4 starters at best, aside from Gallardo who's being counted on to be a stud even though he never pitched a full season. Their bullpen is just terrible. No capable setup men, and I don't really have any faith in Hoffman outside of Petco.
Their offense should be pretty solid with the same group of guys there, but there's still big holes in the lineup with Weeks, Hall, and Kendall.
Posted by: bigpat | April 06, 2009 at 01:50 PM
"When Jeff Suppan is your #1 starter, its over."
Gallardo is the number 1 starter. Macha did not want to put Gallardo under the pressure of pitching opening day.
While I agree the Crew will not go to the playoffs, I think the team can still go for a .500 record and contend for 2nd. They might even contend for the wild card but I think the east will take that spot.
Posted by: crudbucket36 | April 06, 2009 at 02:22 PM
"Does anyone else find it surprising that a lineup with Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Weeks, and Cameron was only good for 7th in the NL for runs scored?"
Only because they had a team OBP of .329. Angels' OBP I think was .330 and I think they were around 7th in the AL in Runs. I noticed 4 of the Brewers' 8 position players had an OBP less than .350. And most of the position players, especially the bench were around .315 to .330. Although Rickie Weeks' was around .370 and he led off much of the season.
Probably having that pitchers' spot, and being weak at the #2 spot is probably why, because Prince Fielder hit 50 homeruns, but he only drove in 119 RBI. And I say "only" because of the low OBP in front of Fielder, who I think was near .400 himself. So it looks like much of the run production may have occurred in the middle and towards the bottom of the order.
Not sure if that EXACTLY why, but that's just the math I've done for now lol.
Posted by: XxRyana.k.a.RufusxX | April 06, 2009 at 02:26 PM
Scratch my last comment, I was looking at the 2007 team.
Posted by: XxRyana.k.a.RufusxX | April 06, 2009 at 02:29 PM
Now that I'm looking at the 2008 Brew Crew, Prince Fielder was the only position player in the lineup with an OBP above. 350. As a team their OBP was even worse than 2007 at .325. So the comparison with the Angels' poor OBP still applies. So that's still what it looks like so far.
Posted by: XxRyana.k.a.RufusxX | April 06, 2009 at 02:32 PM
Very fair article, I pretty much agree.
The Cardinals have just as weak a rotation as the Brewers and are relying on just as many question marks and Volquez most likely won't repeat last year so if Harang doesn't turn it around that is a rotation full of average starters as well.
The Cubs should take the division easily but the Brewers should be competing for 2nd place and are easily as good as the Cardinals or Reds.
I think the Wild Card probably comes out of the east though.
The Astros and Pirates are both a step behind.
Posted by: Ender | April 06, 2009 at 02:49 PM
You know, it probably would've been nice if you finished the "Offseason in Review" before, you know, the actual season started.
Posted by: Cubs017 | April 06, 2009 at 03:17 PM
Brewers don't play their first game until tomorrow so technically is still offseason for them :).
Posted by: Ender | April 06, 2009 at 03:26 PM
@Cubs017: You and the mouth of that gift horse over there are having a pretty intense staring contest, huh?
Thanks for these recaps Tim.
Posted by: wrigleys_ivy | April 06, 2009 at 04:49 PM
"You know, it probably would've been nice if you finished the "Offseason in Review" before, you know, the actual season started."
Why? What better time to review an offseason then the beginning of the regular season, you know, right when the offseason ends?
Posted by: nrmax88 | April 06, 2009 at 06:48 PM
Brewers can surprise people. That offense can be downright sick if they can get improved production from the lower half of the lineup.
Posted by: bjsguess | April 06, 2009 at 07:46 PM
I will not disagree that the obvious weakness for the Crew is their pitching both starting and bullpen...but I think a lot of teams are selling this team very short...they made the playoffs last year and return every positional starter which is huge IMO...not only experience wise but cohesivness...I also wanted to point out that although the rotation is a huge question mark, Dave Bush quietly finished the end of the year as one of the top pitchers in the NL in a few stats...Gallardo and Parra are going to be a great duo in the coming years...hopefully we see that this year...and last...I know a lot of people don't know too much about our bullpen and see a bunch of young guys or old players who didn't have success earlier in their careers but the likes of Seth McClung and Carlos Villanueva really turned it on at the end of the year last year...as well as Todd Coffey...I know these are not household names but they are all decent bullpen options...plus we have a former closer in Jorge Julio
believe me it's probably quite a bit of homerism (a new word?) talking here...but I see the Brewers finishing 2nd in the division and challenging the Cubs for first...I also think that the pitching will be a huge suprise for the Brewers...not to mention the resurgence of players like Bill Hall and Jason Kendall with Dale Sveum working on their swings...
Posted by: T_Unit14 | April 06, 2009 at 10:00 PM
"plus we have a former closer in Jorge Julio"
Key word in that sentence is former. Just because he had 12 good innings with the Braves last year is nothing to get excited about... you'll be cringing when he gets the ball pretty quickly. Coffey is also a former closer, just don't say that too loudly to Reds fans.
With as crazy as the NL Central is, I'll agree there is a very decent possibility of this team being able to at least slug their way into the wild card spot. But Hart and Fielder need to hit like they did in 2007, Weeks needs to finally breakout, and Kendall should get on base a little more. But Gallardo and Parra never pitched 200 innings, Suppan is your #3, Looper will probably have the same drop Suppan did after leaving St. Louie, and Bush while underrated is still back end pitcher. And seriously, the bullpen is duct tape and elmer's glue.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | April 07, 2009 at 01:41 AM
Suppan is really the #5. Dave Bush is the #3, Looper is the #4 and the #6 and #7 of McClung and DiFelice are probably both as good or better than Suppan.
Basically the entire argument comes down to whether you trust MLEs and think Gallardo and Parra will be good or you don't trust them.
For some reason people are all over Carpenter (not likely to pitch a full season) and Wainwright (also coming off injury) or think that the Reds (Harang is a huge question mark, Cueto hasn't been as good as Parra) are sure things but the Brewers are some huge risk.
Suppan, Bush, Looper matches up to the Cardinals 3, 4, 5 for sure and isn't much different than the Reds most likely. It is all up to Gallardo and Parra.
Posted by: Ender | April 07, 2009 at 07:15 AM
You cant say that Suppan is a #5 when he will be going against the other teams best pitcher every time out. For right now he is your number one and will go out there againts the other teams ace. Bush right now is the Brewers #5 and imo he could have a better year than Parra because he will be going against the back end of most rotations(and I think Parra is overrated and Bush is underrated). Unless the Brewers skip starts on their off days this is how the rotation will fill out and even though we all know Gallardo is the true ace he is not the Brewers number one right now. So it wont be Suppan Bush Lopper at 3 4 5 it will be Parra Lopper Bush and that does match up pretty good against Cards, Reds, and possibly the Cubs.
Also the Cards will pry have have pitcher injury's but the Cubs, Reds, and yes even the Brewers will as most teams in baseball will have some pitchers go down at some point in the season. That's why teams go to ST with 6 or 7 starters in mind. Who will the Brewers start if someone goes down because I can't think of anyone?
Posted by: cubbieblue | April 07, 2009 at 11:00 AM
Cubbieblue - First of all you need to get a spell checker. It's Looper not Lopper. Second of all just because Suppan went out and started the season doesn't mean that he will be matched up against the opponents ace every time out. Everyone knows that after the first week or two of the season the number of the starter doesn't mean much. You have to take in to account off days that will mess up the rotation making it difficult for ace's to square off. How many times did we see Sheet's vs. Zambrano? Or Sheets vs. Oswalt? It happened occasionally, but not everytime the two teams played. Point #2 the Brewers will send out McClung or DiFilice in the event one of their starters goes down. If you don't remember last season check out McClungs stats in '08 as a starter. He didn't do half bad. I'd rather see him starting ball games that Suppan. Suppan's only out there every fifth day because of his contract. As soon as it's up he'll be gone. Suppan = Anthony Mason (you Bucks fans will agree)
Posted by: PK1140 | April 09, 2009 at 03:16 AM