MLB Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors
Subscribe to MLB Trade Rumors using RSS
Home     Contact     About     Advertise     Archives     Widget     Twitter      RSS Usage

« Odds & Ends: Schuerholz, Fukumori, Perez | Main | Draft Roundup: Mock Draft, Strasburg, Gibson »

Olney on Reyes, McLouth, Holliday

ESPN.com's Buster Olney wonders if the currently injured Jose Reyes has already peaked, quoting a scout who says "I don't see a lot of evolution there ... Jimmy Rollins struggled early in his career, but then he just kept getting better and better, and I'm not really seeing that in Reyes." Olney likens the situation to Mark Prior's, who seemingly held the Cubs hostage with his potential. Reyes will turn just 26 next week, but Olney says that going forward "the Mets should not assume that Reyes is going to be an unmovable foundation piece," however he is not advocating a trade just yet.

Here's the rest of Olney's rumors:

  • Olney heard that the Pirates were concerned about Nate McLouth's defensive abilities, so they moved him now before his trade value diminished.
  • Billy Beane will soon have to make a decision about whether or not he should trade Matt Holliday, because other teams will start inquiring soon.
  • Olney speculates that the Cardinals could be interested in Holliday, which would satisfy Tony LaRussa's desire for a big bat. He also says that Cards' prospect Brett Wallace would be a good fit for Oakland, but that seems like a hefty price for just three or four months of Holliday.


Comments

"Jimmy Rollins struggled early in his career, but then he just kept getting better and better"

Technically, I guess. His OPS+ went from 80s, to 90s, to about 100, but it took him until he was 28 to have an OPS+ over 103, and he hasn't done it again since.

Reyes has nothing to worry about.

This is a dumb article. There's no way any of can say that Reyes won't become a better contact/avg hitter. There's no way we can say he won't become a better OBP guy. And there's no way we can say he won't develop more power and become a consistant 20-25 hr guy. He is ONLY 25. As long as he maintains a strong drive and work ethic then I think this guy will improve. When you have that kind of talent it becomes a matter of how badly the player wants to improve.

I said it once and I'll say it again, I really think that Matt Holliday will be a Cardinal and will get them to the playoffs. But giving up Wallace for only a few months of Holliday? I don't know about this though. Only get Hollday if we extend him to like a four or five year deal. If he won't stay in St. Louis after the season though, then DON'T make this trade Mo.

Every Cardinals fan out there is pushing for Matt Holliday with the statement "only if he re-signs with St. Louis." Every time I read that from someone it's completely not logical. Being the Boras client that he is, of course he's going to test free agency. I'm pretty certain that the only way he would stay in St. Louis, if they acquired him, is if they went out & won the World Series. Is that going to happen? Possibly...I wouldn't bank on it though, especially considering another bat is only a small portion of their needs (4-5 starter, bullpen help). Either you trade your prospects & get Matt Holliday & push for the playoffs, or you don't & go from there. There's no "if he'll sign an extension..." you either play to win or hope to win.

The Reyes-Rollins comparison is pretty poor. They both had their first full season at age 22. Reyes had an 81 OPS+, Rollins had a 92 OPS+. The following year, Reyes had a 115 OPS+ while Rollins had an 85 OPS+. Rollins never had an OPS+ significantly above 100 until 2007.

Rollins, while a good player, gets a lot of undeserved love after his 2007. He improved up to 2007 but it wasn't really significant leaps each season. You can argue 2007 was his peak and he probably never will match those totals or come close to them again.

The Reyes article is ridiculous; last year, at age 24, he was tied for sixth in the National League in Win Shares. The previous year, at age 23, he was tied for 15th. The guy is already one of the best players in the National League when healthy. Even if he doesn't improve one bit, you've got a plus defensive shortstop with a cannon arm who hits .280-.300 with 70 extra base hits a year and is a tremendous base stealer, all at a very affordable price. I don't think Reyes is going anywhere anytime soon.

I believe it is also likely that Jose Reyes will never get the same numbers Rollins did in his 07 season. Reyes makes solid contact but has power in the way that Rafael Furcal has power...short, quick swing that generates it. Rollins has a little more bulk to him. Not to mention the fact that Jose Reyes will be playing in Citi Field for the forseeable future...compared to Rollins playing in Philadelphia. I'd say 20 HR is probably the ceiling for Reyes from here on out...his speed should end up keeping with him though. I'm sure the Mets will be fine with .280/15/70 & 40 SB while they have Reyes.

Wallace is WAY too much to give up for a rental, but I'm not sure what else the Cardinals have that the As would want.

Reyes' career stats: .286/.337/.435 (.772 OPS)

Rollins' career stats:
.275/.330/.436 (.766 ops)

Reyes has done a fine job in matching Rollins' career numbers, and thats with playing in pitchers parks (Shea, now Citi), not that bandbox in Philly that Rollins has played in for 5 years. If Reyes played in a hitter's park like CBP, he would hit more or less 25 HRs a year and finish with a higher OPS than Rollins.

wallace is struggling in AAA.
maybe rushed, who knows.

holliday for 3-4 months + 2 draft picks is the risk.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Brett%20Wallace&pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=477165

"wallace is struggling in AAA.
maybe rushed, who knows."

Wallace was rushed. No doubt about it. Considering that a good majority of college draft picks from '08 are still in A+ or AA (notable exception = Gordon Beckham). The Cards need to send him back to AA. And that's still a great deal for the A's if they can pull it off.

The quality of Buster Olney's work seems to have gone downhill signifigantly since the MLB network launched. I really wonder how it's affecting ESPN, and if "the best team in baseball" is starting to see it's ratings decline. Stuff like this, the Penny to Atlanta rumor, the Laporta to Boston rumor...it just reeks of trying to get the ESPN name out there, regardless of content.

Even if Reyes doesn't improve, how many shortstops are better? There are only a handful of useful shortstops in the majors.

I don't care if Holliday would sign an extension it is not worth giving up Wallace! He is a future middle of the order bat that will hit for power and average! We need to keep cost controlled guys like him and Rasmus if we are going to be able to re-sign Albert in 2 years!

You guys who are posting Reyes's numbers in relation to Rollins and arguing that Reyes is a good player are missing the point.

The article acknowledges that he's a good player. It's saying that he won't get any better than how good he is right now. Rollins went from pretty darn below average to above average. The article argues Reyes will always be a bit above average but not elite.

Who cares if Reyes is better? Maybe he is, but that wasn't the point of the article.

A trade for Wallace does not seem like the A's style. I would imagine they would get one good, well known prospect and 2-3 young prospects (under 21) that have been well scouted. One prospect that projects well but is currently sidelined by an injury.
I am thinking Matt Spencer/Donaldson types.

no. theres no way Jose Reyes has hit his peak yet

"no. theres no way Jose Reyes has hit his peak yet"

Over the last three years plus 2009: his average has flatlined, his OBP has flatlined, his slugging has varied, his fielding has worsened, and his runs and wins against replacement numbers have all been static.

Look, no one's saying the guy isn't a good player. But he may in fact be done improving.

Just total guessing on some of the pieces. Some of the players in the St Louis organization would be Kozma SS/Peterson OF/Hill C

Addition/E. Sanchez/Garcia/Freeman P

The additional 1st rounder and sandwich pick that Holliday would bring really makes it hard to figure what a trade would look like.

Reyes is selfish. Until he learns how to play the game the right way -- and professionally, then we could say who could become a star.

As for McLouth, we saw a glimpse of his poor defensive skills. It was a pop fly that should have been caught, but fell in front of him. Granted, he was playing towards right center, but that ball he missed should have been caught.

Selfish...? Okay, what good player isn't it? Can you name any Reyes incidents in the last calendar year that have really been a big deal?
Not this make an error throw a glove or take me out tantrum stuff bc alot of big leaguers do that stuff.

The article also fails to mention that Reyes was heating up in his last 50 at bats before the injury and I'm sure his #'s would look far different at the end of this year.

Okay Reyes might never hit 25-30 homers (Carl Crawford anyone?) at Citi but he will lead the league in triples, and stretch way more singles into double than the average player.
I don't think anyone who has seen him on a daily basis this year can say he has not improved in some facets of his game... It is just that when he has made his BR mistakes or errors they have been in close ballgames rather than blowouts on sunday afternoon.

Umm, do i have to? He made two bone-headed plays a few weeks before he got hurt.

Anyways, yeah he is selfish. He is like K-rod, don't care about the team as long as he succeeds. That is why they have so much emotion. Reyes needs to stop acting like a kid, jumping around, dancing. Doesn't matter if he trys to or not show up the opposing team. He needs to learn to play the game professionally.

What Reyes utilizes is speed, something you alluded too. But who can't steal first base. He is not a great hitter, people ended up thinking he would be after 06 year. That is what puzzles me the most. You could pretty much say everyone in the '06 Mets club overachieved, including Mr. Reyes.

People sure get offended easy when Reyes is brought up.

As phrontiersman pointed out - this article isn't about Reyes being a bad player. Instead, Olney is merely suggesting that Reyes maybe has hit his ceiling (which probably occurred in his age 23 season). That, if you are holding on to him because you believe he can only go up in value, then that might not be a wise move.

There are plenty of players who peek at an earlier age. With Reyes everyone knows he has crazy skills. What folks hoped would happen is that he would develop his baseball IQ. His experience + his raw skills would lead to constant improvement until the time when age started to rob him of his skills.

Reyes is amazing and provides a ton of value to the Mets. His contract is team friendly and he fills a position that the Mets have zero bench strength in.

Just for the sake of argument, I wonder the same thing about Hanley Ramirez. His numbers have been roughly the same for the past 2+ years. An OBP of 400, with 30 HR's. His SB's took a dip last year and haven't been there this year. I don't think that I would count on Hanley make big improvements over where he is today.

Okay Reyes has made it to first base more than 35% of the time the last 3 years, I dont believe you can consider his speed a "wasted talent" due to him not getting on base enough... Does anyone see some comparisons to a young Furcal right down to even the injuries?

K-rod? Selfish? You must just see the ESPN highlights, he is quite humble in interviews after the game and has state repeatedly that he isn't trying to show up anyone...Wright is just as much an "emotional" player.
You are way overrating this "drama" and "emotion" aspect just like the NYC media creation wants.

Bottomline is that Reyes is an elite talent that plays the most premium position and is just entering his big window into peak years. I would venture to say most GM's covet Reyes among the top 15 players in the game.

do you see Wright dancing around the dugout jumping and smiling? Noo. Do you see Wright pointing up to the sky after every homer he hits? Noo. Their is a difference between the emotion Wright shows and K-rod/Reyes show. Reyes just cares about media attention, hoping he will show up on sportcenter so they could admire his beautiful speed. Also, i found it funny when i saw Reyes wearing a do-rag. He probably wears it now because he saw Rollins win a World Series.

Right this is the same crap, just like Melky and Robbie. It must be a Latin thing right?

Dude it doesn't matter if the DH wants to sit in the clubhouse and inject his *** with steriods or the Ace pitcher wants to sit at the end of the bench conked out on a xanax.
If the Mets had won anything the last two years nobody would bring up these "antics".

I believe Reyes wears a do rag because he actually has hair to protect. Rollins just wears his dew rag so his helmet doesn't fly off his slick bald a$$ head rounding back to the dug out after a swinging bunt.

Or maybe this....Reyes is just being Reyes or copying the "Great Manuel" himself?

Smiling is selfish. You heard it here first.

Brett Wallace for a couple months of Matt Holliday? LOL, not happening.

Even if reyes doesn;t improve, which he will, he is only 25, he is still the 2nd best ss in baseball in the majors behind hanley. He hits 290, his obp is 350 , hits 15-20 hr's from leadof spot 70 rbi's , 50 +stolen bases and produces runs with his legs.

lol, is that why you think both wear a do rag? It is a look. I just find it funny how Reyes started wearing it after Rollins won the World Series. W/e, that is beyond the point.

My point is, Reyes is pressured right now to be star -- something he is not. After his 06 season, people want him to repeat/do better. However, these fans and so called experts fail to realize he is NOT a great player and his 06 year may have been his career year. Now, I'm not saying he can't match is numbers, however don't expect him to improve on them significantly. That is the point Olney is making, and it is 100% reasonable. I don't buy in the whole age argument. I don't care how old you are. I just feel Reyes needs to change his demeanor to be a more productive player.

Wow...I didnt know celebrating or wearing a doo-rag was being selfish...

Learn something new everyday...

All it takes is a few injections, a little more bulk, and he's a much improved player.

But seriously, if he decides to hit the weights pretty hard with some consistency, then he'll hit the ball with more authority. Like another poster said, if he wants to improve, he can. By no means is someone unable to grow by age 25.

How was his '06 year a career year when his '08 was just as good. A career year is when a player greatly exceeds anything they ever have or will do. If you have 2 out of 3 years the same, then that sounds more like what you expect, not a career year. Since his D was better in '07, his WARP was actually better that year than '06 or '08. When it comes down to it, we're still waiting for a career year out of Reyes.

Cingular said it best: if the Mets had won anything during the Omar Minaya Era, no one would be nay-saying anything about Jose Reyes right now. As it is, the Mets have flopped, so all their core players are coming into question. Should they do something so foolish as to trade Reyes, guaranteed the team would get worse immediately.

Ok, no Brett Wallace.

I think SS Pete Kozma, RHP Eduardo Sanchez, and LHP Nick Additon would be better haul anyway.

"ESPN.com's Buster Olney wonders if the currently injured Jose Reyes has already peaked, quoting a scout who says "I don't see a lot of evolution there ... Jimmy Rollins struggled early in his career, but then he just kept getting better and better, and I'm not really seeing that in Reyes.""

Ha... Yeah, Rollins just keeps getting better and better, and he still isn't better then Reyes. Jose Reyes has posted higher OBP's in the last 3 seasons then Rollins ever has in his career. Olney is such a moron. Everything he ever said is based on "scouts". Does he have his own opinions? He is supposed to be an analyst. I remember when Buster Olney said that scouts told him Chris Shelton was going to be a perennial 40 home run guy.

But Rollins is gritty and emotional, so that obviously counts more then production.

So wait Jose Reyes isnt ever going to improve from being one of the top 5 SS in the league???
What a knightmare for the Mets.
I dont understand the idea that he should be traded because hes not going to get any better...he doesnt need to get any better...if the Mets dont win a WS with this current core its not going to be because of Jose Reyes 'un-fulfilled' potential...it will be because the team has the best core in baseball surrounded by a bunch of bench players starting when they shouldnt be.
How does trading Reyes help in any way unless we get above his value?

I'm not apposed to trading Reyes if the right deal came...but then it opens a hole at the hardest to fill position in MLB.

Unless the Mets can rob a Tulowitzki, Drew or Hardy from a lower market team then they shouldnt be looking to trade Reyes.

Reyes>>>Rollins

Their WAR was about even last year, except Reyes is 5 years younger and has a way higher ceiling.

Huge Met fan hear and for years I've been very big on Reyes I know it's still early on but more and more Jose is starting to remind me of Garry Templeton remember him? Switch hitting SS great speed 5 tools but he never really managed to put up those elite numbers with any consistency. He had a bad attitude and wasn't always in the best of shape also if memory serves me well he had leg problems just like Jose. Call me crazy but thats who he starting to look like more and more to me. It's like he's perpetual rookie always making the same mistakes. He's young enough to change and really get it together but that ship may be sailing soon.

The A's needs are at 3B and SS, which is why Wallace would be ideal for them. It is too much though, and the Cards would be stupid to make that deal. This trade would be much easier and get done much quicker if David Freese (on the DL) were healthy and producing. The guy will never be a star like Wallace, but he will be a solid everyday 3B. I'd gladly give up Freese and Kosma for a half year rental of Holliday.

As for those criticizing Cards fans in saying "only if we can extend Holliday", we say that because that's what the Cards do, and it is smart managment. You don't just blow your wad for a half season rental of a star player, you do it to obtain him and lock him up. You can't use Boras as an excuse either, as the Cards have had some success in dealing with Boras and extending guys before FA. This offseason does not look good for many who will be seeking big money, long-term deals, much like last year. Boras was smart in allowing Lohse to sign an extension last fall before FA, as Lohse got a good number of years and over-paid compared to the rest of the pitching FA crop. He'd be smart to do it again with Holliday this year.

I agree with STX CARDSFAN. Giving up Wallace for a four-month rental of Holliday is ridiculous. (Same with
Daryl Jones, so don't ask.)

"Huge Met fan hear and for years I've been very big on Reyes I know it's still early on but more and more Jose is starting to remind me of Garry Templeton remember him? Switch hitting SS great speed 5 tools but he never really managed to put up those elite numbers with any consistency. He had a bad attitude and wasn't always in the best of shape also if memory serves me well he had leg problems just like Jose. Call me crazy but thats who he starting to look like more and more to me. It's like he's perpetual rookie always making the same mistakes. He's young enough to change and really get it together but that ship may be sailing soon."

Gary Templeton never had an OPS of 800 or an OBP of .350. Reyes has done both of those a number of times already. Reyes does put up elite numbers, when you consider he does it from the SS position, and he steals a ton of bases. You know how many teams would just kill to have a .290/.350/.450 guy at shortstop? Let alone one who will steal 50 bases and play a good shortstop? People have to stop worrying about what Reyes isn't and just be happy with what he is.

How bout Bryan Anderson, Duncan,and some minor league prospects for Holliday. I have been very impressed with Anderson and would love to see Dunc in the AL. This is just an idea. wat do u guys think???

I dont see Duncan as a player the A's would pursue. As for Anderson thats a maybe-you can never have enough Catchers.
I think Jess Todd might be in there as his call up might have been for the A's to take a look at him. So has St Louis given up on Freese? I admit ankle surgery for a 3B is very worrisome.

But if your the cards adding Holliday is worth it at pretty much any price. The A's will most likely go for guys that are/have been at Springfield (AA) and its going to be arms and the 3B/SS is my guess.

I didnt rly think they would take Dunc either. but i can always hope. Maybe a package centered on Anderson and Todd with a guy like Jay or even Kozma or Freese. all these guys show promise. we would prolly have to send another young arm... mayb boggs or walters. i think it would b worth it.

heres a question from way out in left field... but would the astros trade inside the division? if so i would rather have Tejeda than Holliday. i know his offensive numbers are not as good but we need an everyday shortstop. we already have outfield depth, even tho only Rasmus is hittin rite now. i gotta believe the others will catch fire soon.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment


Top Stories



Search MLBTR

Lijit Search

MLBTR Features



Recent Posts


MLBTR Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner


Rumors By Team



Monthly Archives


Live Chats


Tuesdays at 2 p.m. CST



Site Map     Contact     About     Advertise     Privacy Policy     Widget     Twitter     Rss Feed


MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com.