Olney On Wilson, Johan, Harper

"Olney shows that Johan Santana is throwing slower fastballs, and not as many of them."

I really think it's unfair for Olney to write this kind of stuff when the sample sizes are so unclear.

Santana's fastball in 2008: 91.2 MPH, thrown 59.6% of the time

Santana's fastball in 2009: 90.9 MPH, thrown 62.6% of the time

So over the full course of this season versus last season, he's actually throwing more fastballs, and at practically the same velocity that he did last year.

Yeah, maybe his velocity was down in the start against the Mets, but you can't use that as an overarching concept to say that Santana's velocity might be coming down.

His K rate is the highest its been since 2004, and while his walk rate is up, he's still got a lower FIP than he did in both 2007 and 2008 so far this season.

I wish that we could just like, let the guys at FanGraphs take over at ESPN. Or at least just fire Olney, Phillips, Morgan and Gammons. It's just crappy baseball analysis that's being fed to the mainstream world by the largest sports corporation in the country. The people deserve better. Especially when you have to pay for Insider.

How would the Nationals cope with Strausburg and Harper? I believe they'd be pretty happy to have two of the drafts most exciting prospects in their system.

Strausburg and Harper could mean for Washington what Griffey, A-Rod and Randy Johnson meant for Seattle. Having these two great talents would put the Nationals "on the map."

While the cost of signing them would be immense, the benefit of doing so would be even greater.

scribbletone -

I agree based on the fangraphs stats, but I heard on radio show the other week his FB velo has dipped since May. I don't know if fangraphs has velocity splits, but they kept saying some are worried about his fb/change combo over the next few years and how batters will start sitting on the change knowing there is less than a 10 mph variance between the two pitches. They also said the new Citi has helped his numbers (the splits are awful now because of his start yesterday, but take it for what it's worth)

I don't think it's fair to draw conclusions, because his K rates are still premiere starter quality.

"can your stats there show over the past several starts?"

FanGraphs has Pitch F/X data graphs that chart each of his starts, his average velo for that start, and the overall velo range of every fastball he's thrown.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=755&position=P&pitch=FA

When you look at it, you see that yeah, his velocity has been down in his last four outings, but at the same time he's still regularly hitting 89-92.

Olney just isn't that good at using statistics, so he saw a slight drop in velocity and immediately assumed that was the reason for Santana's struggles.

If you look at his game graphs from Pitch F/X for the Mets/Yankees game yesterday, you'll see that his release point on his slider started to drift horizontally to the right, which led to less horizontal movement on his slider, and he ended up leaving it over the plate a few times.

I would worry more about Santana's offspeed stuff, namely, his slider, more than anything. He's becoming less consistent with his movement and placement with the pitch, and its average velocity has decreased from 84.9 MPH in 2006/2007 to just 82.5 MPH this season, and he's also using the pitch noticeably less.

If Santana starts to lose faith in his slider and drift towards becoming a two pitch starter, then he's going to have some difficulties for sure.

nothing is wrong with johan.. his velocity as a Met has always been 90-92ish, even 89 quite a few games.. hes throwing his changeup a bit too hard i think, recently i have noticed its in the low 80's opposed to high 70's.. also, hes leaving loads of pitches up, and hitters are jumping on his 1st or 2nd pitch b/c they know hes going to try and get ahead with his fastball

Going all the way back to a start against the Nats a few weeks ago, Santana just doesn't look right. Up until that point, he was beyond dominant, throwing hard, pin point command with the fastball and changeup. Then all the sudden his velocity dipped and he started throwing his changeup high in the strike zone. I wondered then if he was hurt, and when this continued against the Pirates in his next start, I was even more concerned. I remember discussing it with Meddler, with both of us hoping it was just dead arm. Now, I'm not sure what the problem is, but something definitely doesn't look right in his last four starts. Like I said, his velocity is down and he is leaving his changeup high in the zone. He has been getting hit really hard.

I'm not a doctor, but I wouldn't be at all surprised at this point if he has an elbow or shoulder issue that requires a DL stint. Then again, with the way the Mets organization handles injuries, I also wouldn't be surprised if the Mets have him pitch through pain to a point where it gets even worse and he has a serious DL stint that causes him to miss major time. I absolutely think there is something wrong. In his last 4 starts, his velocity is definitely down, in average velocity and in what he topped out at.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=755&position=P&pitch=FA

Santana is the best pitcher in the NL PERIOD. Also Beckett did not have blisters in 06, his problem was being stubborn and not listening to Tek. He hasn't had a blister since playing for the Marlins. And finally Jack Wilson sux so you can keep overpaying for a no hit ss on a forever non-contender,enjoy!

I in now way would be against firing Manuel*

Santana is the best pitcher in the NL PERIOD. Also Beckett did not have blisters in 06, his problem was being stubborn and not listening to Tek. He hasn't had a blister since playing for the Marlins. And finally Jack Wilson sux so you can keep overpaying for a no hit ss on a forever non-contender,enjoy!

Posted by: RED SOX DYNASTY! | June 15, 2009 at 02:08 PM

maybe he (Beckett) didn't have a blister but he sure looked like crap yesterday after being so dominant in his previous two starts, LOL! maybe he got whiplash after Jimmy's line drive HR!

RED SOX SENILITY,

haha. bitchslap? You mean when your BEST PITCHER went 6 innings and gave up 6 runs, that bitchslap?

You pitched your best, second best and 4th best pitcher and we pitched our 2nd 4th and 5th best pitchers and if not for a fatass umpire being too lazy to go check a HR call from a TOWERING SHOT off was it Bard?, we'd have won two of three. Listen, the Sox have a very good team, but so do we. I wouldn't be surprised to see you again and then I'd expect a healthy dose of Cole. We'll see if we can both get there and if so who comes out better. I'd be very happy if you got picked off by the Rays or Yanks or someone else again.