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Aroldis Chapman's Value

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 2, 2009 at 11:40am CST]

Aroldis Chapman defected from Cuba and he's now free to sign with the highest bidder. So how much will teams offer the player many scouts consider the best left-handed pitching prospect in the world? ESPN.com's Jorge Arangure Jr. gathered some estimates and hears that the 21-year-old could sign a deal worth between $30-60MM.

When Jose Contreras defected from Cuba, the Yankees signed him for $32MM and Chapman's agent claims his client is the best player to defect since Contreras. But his agent isn't the only one singing Chapman's praises; one scouting director called the magnitude of the news "shocking."

Chapman, who also goes by the first name Albertin, can throw 100mph, but his secondary pitches need development and he's considered raw. Some question his maturity, but those who watched him in the WBC say there's no question that Chapman has charisma.

Arangure Jr. reminds us that we could be months away from a bidding war. Once we get there, the Yankees will have interest. Is he comparable to Stephen Strasburg? Most definitely. Kiley McDaniel says he's not quite as polished but represents a great example of what Strasburg would get as a free agent.

Baseball America's John Manuel says Daisuke Matsuzaka and Contreras are fair points of reference for Chapman. The Cuban lefty is younger than either of those two were when they came to the majors, and he throws harder. Manuel talked to a scout who says "you'll be searching your whole life" if you're looking for more in a pitcher.

So when will it all start? Chapman has to establish residency in another country, but his agent says he'll be ready by Spring Training, according to Yahoo's Tim Brown.

Full Story | Comments (20) | Categories: Aroldis Chapman

Comments

here comes kenny williams....

Posted by: staxx | July 02, 2009 at 11:42 AM

Charisma -- is that the Cuban name for a breaking pitch?

Posted by: BlueSky | July 02, 2009 at 11:46 AM

So WHY couldn't MLB push their "amateur" draft back to July 2nd and make international players available to everyone?

Strasburg #1, Chapman #2, or if you're not willing to pay the demands make the rights to the players able to be traded.

Posted by: xlazox | July 02, 2009 at 11:50 AM

Best LHP prospect in the world? Really? I think I'd have to go with Bumgarner by quite a bit, especially given his success in AA as a 19 year old.

Posted by: nixa37 | July 02, 2009 at 11:55 AM

Wow, that's a lot of money for that kid. He better develop those secondary pitches to be successful.

http://panthersfanatic.net/

Posted by: joemetts10 | July 02, 2009 at 11:58 AM

Oh ESPN analyst gathered some estimates. Now we are safe because ESPN and their "top flight" group of reporters and scouts are on the job.

Posted by: yanks09 | July 02, 2009 at 11:58 AM

that video of him showed him hitting in the low to mid 90's.. he only touched the upper 90s to 100 out of the strikezone and got some swings and misses (swings and misses he wont get in the majors).. im not sure hes worth that money

Posted by: Baseball Nut | July 02, 2009 at 11:59 AM

Do you not realize the nightmare that would come with having all international players subject to the draft? How do you decide when the guys from Latin America are eligible? Do they lose eligibility for a few years if they don't sign the first time their drafted? How many rounds do you want the draft to have, 150, 200, 250? What about older Cuban defectors and Japanese players that would have to go through the draft process?

Posted by: nixa37 | July 02, 2009 at 12:00 PM

Best pitcher since Contreras? He's 68-57 with an ERA of 4.58. That's nothing THAT special to me. Certainly not worth $60 mil

Posted by: diggitydek | July 02, 2009 at 12:06 PM

"Strasburg #1, Chapman #2, or if you're not willing to pay the demands make the rights to the players able to be traded."

Why? Rich teams have to spend money somewhere don't they? Why should the crappy teams like Washington and Pittsburgh always get the best picks :-)

Posted by: johns | July 02, 2009 at 12:16 PM

Well, people should also be questioning his age along with his maturity.

Posted by: PWHjort | July 02, 2009 at 12:37 PM

I was in Cuba in April and was talking to a elemetary school teacher who was 25, he told me that Aroldis Chapman is 21 and legit but Dayan Viciedo was 25 like himself.. Far from a valid source but its something to think about as he seemed to be knowledgable about Cuban ballplayers as he said he was on the Cuba Junior Team when he was of age..

Posted by: Superman | July 02, 2009 at 12:48 PM

"Well, people should also be questioning his age along with his maturity."

... and the sanity of a team that would commit that sort of money to someone so unproven.

Posted by: BlueSky | July 02, 2009 at 01:02 PM

If he's going to lie about his age for more money, why on earth would he pick 21?

Posted by: explodet | July 02, 2009 at 01:40 PM

Believability. You can't say you're 16 years old but you've been playing in Cuba's MLB for 3 years.

Posted by: PWHjort | July 02, 2009 at 01:52 PM

By the way, I'm not saying he is lying. I have no idea. I'm just always, well I don't really know the word to use here, not "skeptical", I just don't trust any Latin American's telling the truth about their age unless they prove otherwise. With all the recent age falsifying scams, I don't believe anyone until an investigation is conducted. Not that I assume they're lying. I just choose not to assume they're telling the truth. By the way Superman, how is Cuba? I heard it's a beautiful country.

Posted by: PWHjort | July 02, 2009 at 01:56 PM

Anybody else find it amusing that some people can watch a 2 minute youtube clip on a guy and think they are capable of giving a full scouting report, full with ceiling, player comps and full repetoire of pitches?

Posted by: nrmax88 | July 02, 2009 at 03:28 PM

I find it incredibly amusing, nrmax88. Though I largely ignore those posters. I also find people on the internet who think they can properly evaluate pitching and hitting mechanics without a high-speed camera hilarious.

Posted by: PWHjort | July 02, 2009 at 04:08 PM

... or without having ever seen them face major league batters. Or minor league batters, for that matter!

I mean, we know scouting is an art, but what some people do here is nothing more than blind guesswork guided by wishful thinking.

Posted by: BlueSky | July 02, 2009 at 04:28 PM

wait til we actually find out he's el duque's father

how come Canadian prospects can't just declare themselves "international" free agents?

Posted by: crash | July 02, 2009 at 04:45 PM

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