Odds & Ends: Butler, Holliday, Counsell

Why would the Jays want to waste al that awesome 2ndbase gold glove talent at 3rd base? I pretty sure Brandon Phillips is a better 2baseman with more range than Aaron Hill despite the added errors.

How could anyone criticize projections that have Sal Fasano hitting five home runs in 2010? :)

"HAHAHAHAHAHA! Man I was so pumped when the Reds got rid of that clown."

You mean when they traded him with two young, upside pitchers for the rights to pay Scott Rolen $11MM this season?

That doesn't seem like too much to get excited about.

Hmmm

Pablo Sandoval is going to lose 20 pts off his average and hit 10 fewer HR's??

I admit, I am ever skeptical over the excessive and I beleive hardly accurate stats such as Fangragh UZR, and player value, but this CHONE thing is unreal.

2009 Yankees and Redsox had 6 players (combined) with over 100 runs scored and two more in the mid to upper 90's. 2010, Zero over 100 runs? 2009 Yankees and Redsox had 6 players over a .380 OBP. 2010 2, right at .381.

That is just a small sample, I cannot imagine what other teams look like.

Can we get 2009 CHONE published so we can see what that looked like?

go sox- the runs projection probably have to deal with the Games Played projection,. They have ARod missing 30 games, Tex missing 16, Jeter missing 20, Cano missing.
Didnt look at Boston's roster but I'm sure its similar. (Not making excuses for CHONE, just saying)

How is Reggie Willits, who hasn't hit a homerun since little league, going to hit two?

There is something clearly wrong with the CHONE model, it is way too conservative. Pujol's projection is one of the few that looks plausible, but that's not exactly a tough call.

Thank you Sour Bob for your sympathies. Rooting for the Reds under the current regime is absolutely brutal. Thanks to the Bermuda Triangle of Incompetence that is owner Bob Castellini, idiot manager Dusty Baker and stroke-addled GM Jocketty, there is no hope in Redville.

Varitek is going to hit 13 HR?

David Ortiz is going to reach 30 HR, 100 RBI, and reach .250?

That's some powerful stuff they are smoking. Sign me up.

Maybe if you guys looked at real stats instead of runs and RBIs you'd be able to put forth some sort of meaningful criticism.

Preferably something that the player has actual control over. It's like getting mad because a projection misses a pitcher's wins.
Look at something more likely to be constant with a player: OPS, etc.
I'm not saying the projections are good, I haven't looked at them.

Ditto stlcards.

How about Manny Ramirez, a career .411 OBP has a .363 the lowest since his rookie year? 57 Walks for a guy who has averaged 80-100 since his rookie year? He missed 50 plus games last year and had 71 walks.

Always fun to hear Evan Gran't ridiculous trade scenarios...

Edwin Jackson for Chris Davis, Kasey Kiker, and Brandon McCarthy.

He goes on to state that if that's not enough, the Rangers NEED to deal Justin Smoak + premium pitching prospect if they want to contend.

Unless you're a superstar, it sure does suck to be a Type A FA.

Betancourt will have virtually no option other than to accept arbitration if it's offered. Who's gonna give up those picks for a non-closing reliever?

This day seems to be filled with moronic trade proposals. Phillips to the Jays to play 3B? When there are plenty of free agent 3B available while Phillips isn't even a 3B? Then some idiot said Minaya should at least try and trade for Votto. Yes, and we should build a time machine, clone Ted Williams, and bring him back to play as well.

"Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports believes it's a three-horse race for Matt Holliday: the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels. "

How big does the Yankees' payroll have to get before baseball imposes a real payroll cap to maintain at least the fiction of competitive balance? $400 million? $1 billion?

Wow, Andre Either loses 10 homeruns and 27 RBI's? Matt Kemp drops 6 homeruns and 20 RBI's? Crystal ball? More like a Magic Eight Ball.

The Red Sox are not after Holliday. Theo and the owners are done with Borass. He will go to the highest bidder(yankees). Borass mouthpieces always floating the idea of the Red Sox being involved so they can drive his price up.

i agree Metsfan08. The Yankees don't want Holliday!.

Boras wants the Yanks to jump in.. but we don't need or want him.

He belongs on the Mets , or Sox

What in the world are these CHONE projections?!?!?!

They project Aramis Ramirez to play 119 games (he dislocated a shoulder, it's not an annually chronic thing!).

However, they have 17 others playing 120 games, including Jake Fox's statuesque glove, Bobby Scales, Sam Fuld, and about 8 guys I've never heard of.

Point is, 8 defensive spots other than pitcher is 1296 defensive games. 17 defensive players in 120 games is 2040 games. Those 17 players (that don't include Soto, Sori, or Rammy) total the whole season, PLUS almost 750 pinch hitters/DHs and/or defensive replacements!

WHAT IN THE WORLD?!

Suzysman,

Thanks for the sox eval and 2009 link alert

aap212:

That's my point. I could really see Reyes having 25+ triples cause anybody can turn a hit in the gap into a triple and Reyes will have a field day with his speed.

Billy Butler is the Royals player of the year??? What about Zack Greinke?????

JOEYB33- The Royals give out a (position) player of the year AND a pitcher of the year award.

And while we're on Butler... I hope the Royals have some caution with him. I like the kid and I think he could be great, but I'm worried he might be the next Bob Hamelin or Ken Harvey. Let him play another full season and see if he can repeat his success from 2009, then let's talk about locking him up.

And while we're on Butler... I hope the Royals have some caution with him. I like the kid and I think he could be great, but I'm worried he might be the next Bob Hamelin or Ken Harvey. Let him play another full season and see if he can repeat his success from 2009, then let's talk about locking him up.

Posted by: bustedflush | November 16, 2009 at 03:28 PM

Bustedflush I think you are going to get your wish. Whether it is good or bad, the Royals are planning on waiting with Butler until after 2010. He could have another big season and it could cost them more in the end, but Moore has said that once Guillen's salary is off the books after this season he can look at buying out Butler's arb years.
And I agree with you that is the way to go with him.

Any chance that Butler could get dealt? I think Texas and KC could match up pretty well on a deal.

Finally a good post about WAR over at Fangraphs. I'm sick of people using those numbers as some sort of benchmark for what a player should earn via FA.

Any chance that Butler could get dealt? I think Texas and KC could match up pretty well on a deal.

Posted by: Sherman McCoy | November 16, 2009 at 04:18 PM

Sherman, I am by no means the final word on this, but living near KC I think Greinke and Butler are the only untouchables this offseason. Now I'm sure if they get blowed away with a deal Butler could get moved, because while he is a great hitter, and played OK at 1B, he is really a DH.

On that note, it wouldn't surprise me if Soria was actually quietly being shopped because I don't think he is untouchable.

As a Cubs Fan, I would take Craig Counsell's 39 years and $1 million salary over Aaron Miles any day of the week. In fact, for how cheap you could probably sign him Hendry should just release Miles and make Counsell an offer.

"He'd love that short fence out in right. He could actually have 9 or 10 homers with that field."

He'd have to be a marksman to take advantage of the "short fence," since it's only 302 feet directly down the line. To the left of the pole, it's one of the deepest rightfields in baseball.

"As a Cubs Fan, I would take Craig Counsell's 39 years and $1 million salary over Aaron Miles any day of the week. In fact, for how cheap you could probably sign him Hendry should just release Miles and make Counsell an offer."

Pardon the french, but - oh F* yeah!

I would rather watch 47 year old Shawon Dunston as our utility infielder then sit through another season of Miles. But alas, Hendry and his man-crushes means we will both be disappointed in 2010. Elmer Fudd is already out there defending Miles and telling us about the bounce back he should see :(

"The Red Sox are not after Holliday. Theo and the owners are done with Borass. He will go to the highest bidder(yankees). Borass mouthpieces always floating the idea of the Red Sox being involved so they can drive his price up."

Where has there been a credible source in the Yankees organization that said "We're really looking into Matt Holliday" ? Speculation is great and is much encouraged, but some people on this site are acting like the Yankees are making the contract as we speak! There are no indications that the Yankees are any closer to inking Holliday than the Red Sox, Angels, Pirates, or the San Francisco 49ers as a towel boy!

And wouldn't you think that Boras wanted to include the Yankees as "big players" to try to drive the price up for other teams that want his services?

Agent,

In strictly logical terms, your post makes sense.

But if last offseason is any indication, Boras and other agents don't need to use the Yankees to drive up the price, because the Yankees will simply take whatever the market value for a player's services seems to be and add two or three years and $30-40M to avoid the hassle of negotiations.

Posted by: DunkinDonuts | November 16, 2009 at 08:42 PM

Yeah, they did that with those players because those were holes they desperately needed to fill. This year, they'll be cutting costs again by unloading contracts off the books and still adding players. I think if anything, if Granderson and Jackson don't cost too much, you could see a trade for them, and then a signing of Sheets or Harden and that would be it, and their payroll will be below $200 million.

DunkinDonuts, does his chart actually say that? Well, I stand corrected then. Having watched him the whole season as a Brewers fan, though, most of his hits that I remember were down the right field line. I suppose maybe just his important hits have been down the right field line.

But anyway, if he hits anything into right field down the line, he will almost be guaranteed a triple. He may be old, but he still has some wheels.

All that said, all of his options for teams considered, I sincerely hope that the Brewers get on their horse and re-sign Craig as quick as possible so as to let us continue utilizing his complete and total awesomeness.

CHONE projections say the Cubs will get 2160 at bats out of the catcher position. That's asinine.