Lincecum Talks Not Going Well

Talks about a two-year contract between the Giants and two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum have not been going well according to CSNBayArea.com's Mychael Urban. In fact, Urban says it would be more accurate to call the negotiations "dismissals" rather than "discussions," because the righty's camp has rejected every one of the team's proposals.

SI.com's Jon Heyman states the obvious and says that the two sides are likely headed to an arbitration hearing later this month, however he adds that this is something that likely never would have happened under Peter Magowan's watch. Magowan stepped down as the team's managing partner after the 2008 season, and had historically taken care of his star players.

Lincecum filed for $13MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility, while the team countered with just $8MM. He's going to set a new salary record for a first year eligible pitcher regardless of the outcome, but it's worth noting that Lincecum's average fastball velocity dropped from 94.1-mph in 2008 to 92.4-mph last season, so perhaps the club has some concerns about his long-term durability.


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67 Comments on "Lincecum Talks Not Going Well"


Guest
5 years 6 months ago

this is their franchise right here. The Giants have to get him signed!

JaY_Patel
5 years 6 months ago

Well they think his body will break down soon thats is why they think he might be cheaper after 2 yrs than 4 yrs (he has arbitration 4 times)

JaY_Patel
5 years 6 months ago

Well they think his body will break down soon thats is why they think he might be cheaper after 2 yrs than 4 yrs (he has arbitration 4 times)

5 years 6 months ago

thats becuase the giants are probably trying 2 short change him.

Infield Fly
5 years 6 months ago

Sabean, MAKE it work! This guy’s a very rare gem…and will be for many years to come. Not finding a way to sign him is NOT an option!

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

If Sabean fails to sign him he should lose his job.

Infield Fly
5 years 6 months ago

Absolutely.

Lincecum_Says_GSP
5 years 6 months ago

Do you think Sabean actually has that type of control in situations like this? Think again brother. Neukom and the partners are at the helm of what decisions are bing made and how much money is availible.

Also whose to say what type of terms have been discussed and what the Lincecum camp is asking for? I mean think about it… even if they offered him a 2/30 or 3/50, he can easily make that the way arbitration is set up, especially if he gets the 13MM this year. Correct me if I’m wrong but arbitration goes 40%/60%/80% of their market value during their arbitration years, so if 13MM represents the 40% he maybe set for 19.5MM in 2011 and 26MM in 2012. So thats 58.5MM for rejecting anything the Giants offer. So the question is what is the Lincecum camp looking for? I think it may start at 3/60 but thats just speculation. I have a feeling unless the Giants throw a monsterous contract his way he will go to arbitration, get his pay day (which is very much deserved) and gets ready for a 3-peat. The question is, is he worth a market value of $32.5?

The thing that gets me out of all this if you consider the 8MM the Giants offered as the 40% value (meaning they deem his market value as 20MM), isn’t that the point of arbitration? So the teams can afford their young talent until they are allowed to file for free agency? Or does he represent such an rare case that he falls outside concept of arbitration? And at the end of the day how absurd of an offer do the Giants have to make to satisfy the Lincecum camp.

JaY_Patel
5 years 6 months ago

he should sign him but for only 2-3 yrs i feel like his body will break down (please dont as a giants fan and prove me wrong)

Lincecum_Says_GSP
5 years 6 months ago

yeah a 2-3 year deal should be good for both parties but i have a feeling if the contract is that short Lincecum is going to want more per (at least 20-21MM per year). If its longer term (say 5-6 years) the fact that its gaurenteed money may bring that price down to 18-19MM per.

Lincecum_Says_GSP
5 years 6 months ago

yeah a 2-3 year deal should be good for both parties but i have a feeling if the contract is that short Lincecum is going to want more per (at least 20-21MM per year). If its longer term (say 5-6 years) the fact that its gaurenteed money may bring that price down to 18-19MM per.

Eem
5 years 6 months ago

Good thing Sabean can give $140 million to Barry Zito.

55saveslives
5 years 6 months ago

Jeez…give him a 2 yr 24 mill contract now and look to long term him next year. Sabean, this isn’t rocket science! His velocity dropped and he still won the Cy Young

timmah_55
5 years 6 months ago

I don’t see how the Giants can short change Timmy on a two year contract? Obviously its got to be in the range of $25-30 million over that two year span. I’m curious at what the Giants offered. 2 years/$20 million?

DickAlmighty
5 years 6 months ago

Yeah, Giants probably would need to offer something like two-years, $30 million.

Timmy probably figures he’s got his arb case won already with the Giants unreasonably low offer; thus, he can basically bank on making $13 million this year. Take the normal arbitration increases (about 40-50% per season, although this is an unprecedented case), and he probably makes $18-19 million in arb next year. Even discounting the year two salary for the security gained, I don’t think two-years, $25 million can get it done. Two-years, $30 million might get it done.

If the Giants want to lock him up for all three of his arb years, the least he’d probably accept is a three-year, $50 million deal.

Tough spot for the Giants. If they can’t get a long-term deal, a trade doesn’t seem like the worst idea, even though fans here in SF would riot. Gain a stable of prospects, and let someone else worry if “The Franchise” is going to suffer a budget-busting injury.

5 years 6 months ago

That’s the Giants biggest arguement? Wow! These next two months are going to be long for Timmy and the Giants. Even small market teams realize that stars sell tickets. For 2/25, Timmy pays for himself.

yanksrdashit
5 years 6 months ago

This is the only guy any team should think about giving the farm up for. Maybe there’s a possible trade in the future for lincecum. Imagine what the giants could get for him. The only problem with him at this point is the fact that his fastball velocity has been droping steadily since he got to the majors.

markjsunz
5 years 6 months ago

But his ERA has continued to drop also. He is not a guy who needs a 98 mile per hour fastball he is very hard to get runs off. If he pitched for a good run producing team he would be a 20 game winner every year. Hopefully the Giant ownership will see his value and tie him up long term. It would be nice to start to see superstars or faces of the franchise stay with one team again.

no one
5 years 6 months ago

I am not a Giants fan, but as a Padre fan, I have to say that lincecum is the most intimidating pitcher in the NL. You go against him and you know you´re not going to score more than twice. I guess since he just saw Josh Johnson, Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez signing 4 and 5 year contracts, a 2 year contract won´t be possible. He has already two CY awards so he probably thinks (and he is right) he deserves a 4 or 5 year contract in the range of 65 to 85 million

55saveslives
5 years 6 months ago

I don’t think Timmy’s worried about throwing hard since he hasn’t needed to. His curve and change up have been great. Why throw hard unnecessarily? He rares back and drops the 97-98 when needed.

5 years 6 months ago

His K/BB went from 3.15 to 3.84, his FIP down to 2.34 from 2.62, his BB/9 down from 3.33 to 2.72. I would be incredibly worried about that 1.7 mph dip. Just incredibly worried haha.

Worth noting that he threw his fastball only 56% of the time last year, as compared to around 66% of the time his first 2 big league seasons. Looks like he became a more mature pitcher if anything, which is what you were getting at.

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

Only threw his fastball 55 percent of the time? That is pretty sick.

Ichiroll
5 years 6 months ago

He should leave the Giants and go to the team he SHOULD have gone to, and that’s the Mariners, born and raised in WA grew up watching the M’s. It’s meant to be 😉

55saveslives
5 years 6 months ago

You had your chance!

giantsfansince1981
5 years 6 months ago

Well then maybe the Mariners should have drafted him…

timmah_55
5 years 6 months ago

How does the M’s regret not drafting Lincecum and instead going with Morrow.

5 years 6 months ago

Yes, yes, Bavasi is an idiot, and his decision-making continues to haunt Seattle almost as much as Clay Bennett.

Ok, a comment with “Bill Bavasi” and “Clay Bennett” crosses a number of profanity lines. Perhaps I should be added to the mod queue…?

Ichiroll
5 years 6 months ago

Ugh.. >_< Makes me sick to my stomach.

ReverendBlack
5 years 6 months ago

That kind of velocity drop doesn’t necessarily indicate weakness or lack of durability in his arm. And given that even at a lower average velocity he was positively dominant, it seems silly to pretend the drop is something to be concerned about for the next two years.

Wrong guy to be stingy with. The Giants look foolish right now.

dantheman85x
5 years 6 months ago

Plus, even if they were concerned about long-term liability, we’re talking about year-to-year arbitration figures, not long term deals…

flumesalot
5 years 6 months ago

He’s holding out for a big ol’ bag of Humboldt’s finest.
In all actuality, they’d be fools not to lock him up~~~~probably don’t want to tee him off come FA time.

markjsunz
5 years 6 months ago

How does anyone know that the ownership has any intention of trying to sign him long term? I heard the new owner gives Saben a set amount and under no circumstances is he allowed to exceed that amount. If lincecum continues to pitch the way he has been pitching in two years he may be the first 20 million dollar man.

m34josh
5 years 6 months ago

He is locked up for 4 more years anyway, why is everyone freaking out about this?

dantheman85x
5 years 6 months ago

Basically, the guy is worth it.

whtcrxghst
5 years 6 months ago

The Giants have him locked up for 4 more years whether he signs a long-term deal or not. Whats with all the panic over not signing him right this second?

5 years 6 months ago

Color me stupid, but how does Magowan “take care” of a player that may not have any interest (now) in a long-term deal? Neukom or Magowan, I don’t think it would have made a hill of beans difference. This is a deal that was going to go through the process because The Freak can make more this year, the PA wants it for setting the bar exceptionally high in upcoming years… Just more to it. By the way, Jon, if you’re reading, this isn’t a slam. Just a case of Lincecum having incredible leverage over the Giants.

JerkyBoy4588
5 years 6 months ago

Not a big Giants fan, but a huge Lincecum fan. Giants really need this deal. Between Lincecum and Cain, they easily have one the best one-two punch in baseball, if not the best. Losing Lincecum would be awful for the Giants.

flumesalot
5 years 6 months ago

Lincecum (warranted) and Cain (unwarranted) are not the best “1-2″ punch in baseball.
It all starts up the road in Seattle.

rainyperez
5 years 6 months ago

how do you know lee and felix are the best 1-2 in baseball when they haven’t played a season together yet? if looking at stats yeah it can be justified but thats before the 2010 season…but Cain is much younger than Lee, which is why many people consider Cain and Lincecum a great 1-2 punch. They are a young tandem still growing and learning AND producing great results at 25 in the majors.

JerkyBoy4588
5 years 6 months ago

Yeah, they very well could be. If Cain’s biggest issue is not getting the run support he deserves. He could be right up there with Lincecum if he had the run support. In his 5 years of pitching major league baseball he has yearly average run support of 3.29, 4.67, 3.20, 3.12 and 4.26. He owns a career 3.53 ERA, career average of 7.5 SO/9 and a career 2.09 SO/BB ratio. His numbers are as good on the road, if not better, as they are in the 2nd half vs. 1st.

whtcrxghst
5 years 6 months ago

They won’t be “losing Lincecum” for four years when he is eligible to be a free agent. Cain is due a new deal even before he is

OEF_VET07
5 years 6 months ago

They definately need to try to lock him up long term now. What happens when he wins the Cy again next year? If he’s not locked up long term ASAP he may pitch himself out of SF’s salary capabilities.

timmah_55
5 years 6 months ago

With Verlander and King Felix agreeing to deals, I can’t imagine that Lincecum’s agent is looking for a long-term deal that is more than theirs. Something in the range of 5 years at $85 million with an option for a 6th year seems very reasonable. It would buy out the rest of his arbitration years and 1-2 of his free agent years. That would take him to age 30-31 and in line for another long term contract.

5 years 6 months ago

The issue is that Felix and Verlander have no Cy Youngs and Greinke has one, while Lincecum has 2 in his first two full seasons. Since you can’t really quantify the difference between the batters they are facing (or at least not very well), the foggy “best pitcher in the league” award, the Cy, is going to factor. So if those pitchers are making $14-16 million a season, it’s not hard to argue that Lincecum deserves $18-20. And with Zito on the team… It only goes downhill from there.

bjsguess
5 years 6 months ago

Lincecum would be crazy to take less than either of those two guys. Timmy is a freak and by any measure he is substantially better than either pitcher.

While I happen to think that Verlander and Hernandez are pretty similar – Lincecum is in a totally different league.

WillieMaysField
5 years 6 months ago

From fangraphs- Looking at WAR from last year they’re comparable.

WAR: Pitchers
Zack Greinke 9.4
Justin Verlander 8.2
Tim Lincecum 8.2
Roy Halladay 7.3
Felix Hernandez 6.9

WillieMaysField
5 years 6 months ago

From fangraphs- Looking at WAR from last year they’re comparable.

WAR: Pitchers
Zack Greinke 9.4
Justin Verlander 8.2
Tim Lincecum 8.2
Roy Halladay 7.3
Felix Hernandez 6.9

bjsguess
5 years 6 months ago

Lincecum would be crazy to take less than either of those two guys. Timmy is a freak and by any measure he is substantially better than either pitcher.

While I happen to think that Verlander and Hernandez are pretty similar – Lincecum is in a totally different league.