Baseball Players Looking At Wrong Numbers

Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News snagged some interesting quotes from Giants catcher Bengie Molina yesterday.  Molina is bitter about the lack of interest he received in free agency:

"If I had trouble finding a job after five of my best years, what am I supposed to expect?  You are supposed to get paid for your numbers. But even if I have another good year, I know I cannot expect anything."

Molina's best offer was one year and $5.5MM from the Mets; he ultimately accepted $1MM less to stay with the Giants.  He was coming off a year in which he posted a .285 OBP and .442 SLG.  That works for a catcher, but it's not much different than what we might expect from Rod Barajas.  I'm sure Molina was focused more on his 20 home runs and 80 RBIs.  For this, we have to blame his agent at SFX.

Jermaine Dye also comes to mind.  His agent, Bob Bry, told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that, "There is compelling evidence that suggests that home runs win games and that the emphasis on defense has reached the level of absurdity when you look at the numbers."  In other words, all 30 teams are wrong about Dye's value, and Bry is right.

Another example: in November of '08, Garret Anderson talked about how he had "a very good season" and that his $11MM option was fair market value.  He was coming off a .293/.325/.433 performance with 15 home runs and 84 RBIs.  Anderson, a Scott Boras client, signed for $2.5MM with the Braves a few months later.  Anderson overestimated his market value by $8.5MM. 

Are these agents failing to value their clients properly?  Are they not explaining how the market has changed in recent years?  Or are they just trying to preserve the players' confidence?



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