Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Rays, Twins, Ackley

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new Full Count video up, so let's dive in…

  • Rival executives are already speculating that the Rays could be sellers at the trade deadline in the wake of Evan Longoria's injury and Manny Ramirez's retirement. James Shields and B.J. Upton are most likely to go.
  • The Twins nearly traded for David Eckstein in 2009, but they're not going to sign him or anyone else to fill in for the injured Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The team is currently over-budget, so they'll fill the hole from within.
  • The Mariners are having second base trouble for the second straight season, but Rosenthal spoke to some scouts who said the position figures to be a question for the foreseeable future. Top prospect Dustin Ackley will hit, but they say his defense is sketchy.


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34 Comments on "Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Rays, Twins, Ackley"


5_tool_MiLB_fool
4 years 4 months ago

was dustin ackley seriously worth a first round pick? let alone the 2nd overall pick?

Lunchbox45
4 years 4 months ago

.267/.365/.407 with 1:1 BB/SO ration as a 22 year old in AA/AAA in his first year of professional ball

4 years 4 months ago

It’s impressive sure, I just don’t have much faith him being a star. Average at best on defense, little power, and above-average speed. His best attribute is his eye at the plate. I agree with the first poster in that he was taken a bit too early.

5_tool_MiLB_fool
4 years 4 months ago

He was never worth the 2nd overall pick; lets get that out of the way. A guy with a .365 OBP and 1:1 BB/SO in his first year of pro ball in AA/AAA is worth a 1st round pick. However, if he is already 22 years old, hits .267 and slugs .407 in that stint with below average defense and above average speed, do you really think he is worth a 1st round pick?

Shikikazu
4 years 4 months ago

He only previously played outfield and first base and only recently started playing second base, so he will improve at that position and I believe Ackley will at least be an average player in the MLB if not better.

Hubbs2
4 years 4 months ago

Hindsight is 20/20. Players bust in the MLB draft FAR more than any other draft. If he can become a starting major leaguer than he was for sure worth at least a 1st round pick.

4 years 4 months ago

In that draft, yes. In other years, probably not. It was Strasburg followed by a huge cliff. He is a first rounder regardless.

4 years 4 months ago

Yeah, that’s true.

4 years 4 months ago

Not a huge fan of Upton, but there aren’t many 4 WAR center fielders out there. So I wouldn’t mind seeing Wren put together a package for the guy if McLouth proves to be once again ineffective. Actually, I say just trade for Upton even if McLouth is hitting. He’s atrocious in the field and even with a big year at the plate, not a huge fan of resigning the guy.

bacon_bitz
4 years 4 months ago

Cough up Teheran and you’ve got yourself a deal.
*ducks*

4 years 4 months ago

Cough up Evan Longoria and you can stop ducking…..

CaseyBlakeDeWitt
4 years 4 months ago

But McLouth has a gold glove!!!1!!1

4 years 4 months ago

I agree that B.J. Upton makes sense for the Braves. Evan Longoria makes sense for about 20 teams (but they won’t trade him). I’d say Shields goes to a contender making a push for the playoffs who needs an innings-eater.

4 years 4 months ago

Isn’t David Eckstein about to donate a kidney to one of his family members anyway?

I don’t think he’d be available anytime soon, even if the Twins were interested.

4 years 4 months ago

Haha

Sd_brain
4 years 4 months ago

I think its his brother(Nats 3rd base coach?) thats donating his kidney not David.

4 years 4 months ago

i hate how so many people are saying the rays will be sellers already. its hardly been a week into the season!!

they still have great starting pitching and so far their bullpen has been fine. they just need their offense to start hitting like they can

4 years 4 months ago

It’s called April, my man. Happens every single year(just not with the Rays)….

Ferrariman
4 years 4 months ago

don’t worry, the red sox will also be sellers :) i love how people draw pointless conclusions after the first week, hell even the first month.

notsureifsrs
4 years 4 months ago

this isn’t an example of small-sample hysteria. the projections for this team have fundamentally changed because of serious roster changes, not poor play in april

just about every team in the league would have their chances put into serious doubt if they lost their best hitter for the season and their second best hitter (and best overall player) for a month+ (how soon after will be be 100%?)

in this case you have a small market team in the game’s strongest division who was on the borderline before these losses. it’s not over by any means, but it’s looking far worse than it was

notsureifsrs
4 years 4 months ago

i’ve been a vocal rays supporter all offseason and through the first 6 games. but losing manny and a month of longoria is a big deal

should they sell now? of course not. but it’s pretty likely they’ll be better off selling by the deadline

Ferrariman
4 years 4 months ago

why is losing manny a big deal? he wasn’t performing anyways. Granted small sample size, but losing what he was doing isn’t going to hurt the team, its going to help. longoria though is a definite blow, hopefully just short term.

notsureifsrs
4 years 4 months ago

that’s so awesome. you disparaged people literally one comment ago for “pointless conclusions after a week”, and then said “what’s the big deal losing manny, he wasn’t performing [AFTER A WEEK]”

the big deal is he very likely would have performed quite. manny hit better than adrian gonzalez last year. he was the best hitter in the rays lineup and was a serious factor in projecting them as playoff contenders

4 years 4 months ago

I’m not really getting the ‘hit better than Gonzalez’ bit…..

Gonzalez: .298, .393, .511, 31 HR

Manny: .298, .409, .460, 9 HR

Now, the HR numbers aren’t relevant as Manny only played have the year. But Gonzalez hit for the same AVG, had a slightly lower OBP, but put up a significantly higher SLG in a lineup with little-to-no protection.

Not calling you a liar, just not understanding it.

notsureifsrs
4 years 4 months ago

it’s not by a large margin or anything, the comparison is just useful because it’s provocative and people seriously underrate(d) ramirez

.298/.409/.460 .382 wOBA

.298/.393/.511 .378 wOBA

OPS is a less precise stat than wOBA and lineup protection isn’t a real thing. now if you adjust wOBA for park factors, adrian is back on top. but the point still holds: manny’s bat was very very good and good bats are what the rays lack

notsureifsrs
4 years 4 months ago

On-base percentage is a great statistic because it tells you something important, and in a clear language: at what rate did this player reach base? It doesn’t tell you how far he reached base (second base? third? home?), but only whether he did or did not.

Slugging percentage is another great statistic because it tells you something important, and in a clear language: how many bases did the batter gain for himself per at-bat? It doesn’t consider walks as either a positive or negative event (it simply strips them away as if they don’t exist). It also tries to establish the importance of the single and HR by weighting the HR four times as much as the single.

We have one statistic that is deficient in one area, and another one that is deficient in another. Why not simply combine them as: OBP plus SLG, and call it this new-age statistic named OPS? Might this statistic allow the deficiencies in OBP and SLG to cancel each other out? Let’s see.

From the preceding section, we know the run values of each event. For example, we know that the run value of the HR is 1.4 runs above average, and 1.7 runs above the run value of the out. In rate measures, like OBP, the value of the out in the numerator is zero. If we recast the run values of the most common events relative to the out (rather than relative to the result of an average plate appearance), we get the following:

HR 1.70, 3B 1.37, 2B 1.08, 1B 0.77, NIBB 0.62.

Those numbers are the values of each of our events (again, relative to an out, which now has a value of zero). If we apply these weights to the statistics of a league-average hitter, and divide by plate appearances, we end up with a rate of almost 0.300. This is a fairly convenient number for an average, but we can do better. Since we like OBP as a measure of a batter’s effectiveness, let’s scale our new statistic so that the resulting values are similar to OBP values. It turns out that, if we add 15% to this 0.300 figure, we get the league-average OBP. Therefore, we will add 15% to the weights of each event and define our new statistic as follows:

(0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR) / PA

Note: Depending on the specific analysis, the PA term (plate appearances) may exclude bunts, IBB, and a few of the more obscure plays.

Do we really need another statistic? Yes, we do. Instead of trying to take two statistics (OBP, SLG) and combine and correct their flaws in the hopes of getting one number, we prefer to start from scratch. Furthermore, by recasting the number onto the OBP scale, it makes it much easier for the reader to get a grasp on the number. wOBA is weighted on-base average.

bucs_lose_again
4 years 4 months ago

Where does the arbitrary 15% come from? Everything else has sound reasoning behind it.

MaineSox
4 years 4 months ago

I don’t know that I would say that he hit better but he certainly hit as well as Gonzalez, if you look at the stats there’s really no denying it. Manny’s .382 wOBA vs. Gonzalez’s .378 wOBA and Manny’s 141 wRC+ vs. Gonzalez’s 143 wRC+, plus the numbers you already stated. Anyway, I think the point really was that Manny is still a very good hitter and the loss is definitely going to hurt the Rays.

Lunchbox45
4 years 4 months ago

tampa traded their ‘ace’ (kazmir) at the deadline only being 5 or 6 out.

Friedman is no fool, if the team doesn’t have a legitimate chance at the playoffs when the deadline rolls around, he’ll cut the fat and add to his already ridiculous farm system.

4 years 4 months ago

The Rays have money issues every year. If they can get some great prospects and save 9 million dollars IT WILL HAPPEN.

4 years 4 months ago

Where’s the O-Dawg when you need him now Bill Smith???

bigpat
4 years 4 months ago

The Rays won’t sell now, but you have to be a die hard fan to believe they can still turn their season around. Just looking at their lineup, I’d say it’s only better than the Padres and Royals, and their starters aren’t as good as some people think. Bullpen has looked ok because they were only in one save situation and they’ve been trailing in every game. I like the Rays and wish them luck, but this just isn’t their year.

4 years 4 months ago

Twins overbudget? This offseason were going to see more budget dumping. Cuddyer & Nathan gone.

4 years 4 months ago

Nathan probably. Cuddyer is a Twin for life though. I bet he stays even with all the OF prospects we have.