Darvish May Be Posted After Winter Meetings

10:56pm: Darvish's father told Japanese news service Sponichi that his son's decision regarding posting may not come till mid- or late January, according to Rosenthal, which could substantially limit the number of bidders because many Major League teams – chiefly the small- and mid-market clubs – have their budgets set by then.

8:20pm: Darvish and Hokkaido haven't yet agreed on a posting fee, a scout tells Rosenthal.

“The player, I am told, is very quirky with a huge ego. Apparently, he will feel disrespected if the post is less than Matsuzaka’s was with Boston," the scout said.

A different scout who covers Japanese players tells Rosenthal that Hokkaido wants Darvish to depart so that it can collect the posting fee. The scout adds that the team was planning to post Darvish last year and "had to scramble" to work Darvish's $4.2MM salary into its budget.

1:50pm: Yu Darvish will likely be posted by the Nippon-Ham Fighters after next week's Winter Meetings, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. There are still some issues to be worked out, but Darvish's divorce is not a factor, Rosenthal adds.

While Darvish ranked behind only C.J. Wilson among starting pitchers on MLBTR's list of the top 50 free agents, there was no guarantee he would in fact be available this winter. Yahoo's Jeff Passan wrote last month that executives of some clubs were beginning to doubt whether the Japanese right-hander would be posted, and Darvish's father said a few days later that the odds were "about 50-50."

If Darvish is posted, bidding for his services figures to be very competitive. When MLBTR's Tim Dierkes polled agents in October, they predicted an average posting fee of $45MM and a total commitment of over $100MM to obtain the 25-year-old. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Nationals, and Rangers are among the many teams expected to have interest, and according to Rosenthal, new Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine "loves" Darvish, having managed against him in Japan.


Full Story | 237 Comments | Categories: Yu Darvish

Leave a Reply

237 Comments on "Darvish May Be Posted After Winter Meetings"


MrBaseball29
3 years 8 months ago

That’s what I’m talking about finally some big news

tim2nyy
3 years 8 months ago

And here we go…

Stuart Lock
3 years 8 months ago

I’m convinced the Yankees will overpay and win the bidding. It may or may not work out, but it’s less of a risk for them – and more necessary. It might lead to a chain reaction including seeing them eat a lot of the rest of AJB’s contract.

wcg1380
3 years 8 months ago

The Yankees will certainly put in a bid, but remember Valentine coached against Darvish in Japan, and “loves the guy.”

EarlyMorningBoxscore
3 years 8 months ago

He may “love the guy”, but that doesn’t mean the Sox will go all in with Darvish like they did with Daisuke. 

wcg1380
3 years 8 months ago

Well for that matter will any team “go all in”?  We are dealing with speculation, even to the point that we don’t know if he will be posted at this point.

EarlyMorningBoxscore
3 years 8 months ago

Well if he is posted I think you will see a few teams try to go all in for him. I just don’t expect the Red Sox to be one of those teams. 

wcg1380
3 years 8 months ago

Well unless they win, we will likely never know…

Guest
3 years 8 months ago

You’d be very surprised by just how little cash the Yankees would need to send if they found a new spot for AJ. He’s certainly not a $16mm per year pitcher, but with a severe drought in experienced and healthy (emphasis on healthy and innings) AJ would be valued at $8mm or $9mm in this market. If he were a free agent right now, present day, I could see several teams going 2 years for $20mm and under. I mean Wilson is seeking $100mm more than that with three additional years. Rumors have it that Oswalt could get 2 years and perhaps $25mm and his back is about to split in half. You choose? It’s really not as far fetched as people make it seem and despite AJ’s not great, borderline horrible numbers, he’s actually not that bad of pitcher. And me being the optimist, I expect AJ to have a great season next year whether its with the Yankees or not.

Stuart Lock
3 years 8 months ago

I wouldn’t bet against AJ having half a bounceback year, especially if it’s not in NY.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

No way AJ gets traded this year, he’s owed over 32 million.

icedrake523
3 years 8 months ago

Yeah, Burnett isn’t a bad pitcher. He just pitches like one.

Jeff
3 years 8 months ago

Lowe was worth $5mil.  AJ worth more then that?

EarlyMorningBoxscore
3 years 8 months ago

The question is will his posting fee exceed Daisuke’s when he was posted?

3 years 8 months ago

Based on what we currently know, it seems very unlikely.

Stuart Lock
3 years 8 months ago

Agree. Dice-K and Igawa cost Nippon money.

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

I call BS on that.  I will be shocked if the posting fee isn’t WAY more than $45 million — unless it’s because Darvish makes it known that he will only sign a much more expensive contract.

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

Journalists are singing the same old lullaby they sang when Matsuzaka was posted:  “Go to sleep, go to sleep, go to sleep little Yankees.  Go to sleep, go to sleep, you won’t have to pay much.”

And I’ll be shocked if the same thing doesn’t happen with Darvish that happened with Matsuzaka — that Boston will bid big (at least $60 million and probably closer to $80 million) and win (assuming neither Texas nor Washington bids even bigger).  I also expect the Yankees to buy the nonsense that everybody’s spouting, bid low and be caught napping again.  The only way the posting fee won’t be north of $60 million is if Darvish makes it known — and everybody believes him — that he won’t take less than $15 million a year.

Everybody seems to expect Darvish’s posting fee and contract to total $100 million at MOST.  But given his resume, I expect the total of his posting fee and contract (assuming the winning bidder signs him to a six year contract) to be closer to $150 million.

And the journalists will be just like the casino operator in Casablanca — shocked, absolutely shocked, that Boston posted such a high bid and the Yankees were caught napping.  Who says history doesn’t repeat itself…

All of that said, if I’m Darvish, I either make it known I’m not signing for a penny less than $15 million (or even more) a year or wait until I’m a free agent and pocket tens of millions of dollars more than I would by going through a process where $60-80 million of my market value goes to my current team instead of me.

John McFadin
3 years 8 months ago

You are so off-base it’s really not all that funny.  I can’t quite figure out if you’re joking or not.  You keep thinking about $150 million, and everyone else will be rational.

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

You understand I mean closer to $150 million than $100 million TOTAL — including his contract, I assume.  Right, John?

Matsuzaka was a lightweight compared to Darvish.  Has there ever been a starting pitcher in Japan with Darvish’s statistics?

You really don’t think any GM in the U.S. with money will either expect his 1-something ERA to translate into a 2-something ERA or that they’ll just have the balls to overbid and block other teams from getting him?

What would a starting pitcher in his 20’s with an expected ERA in the 2’s be worth as a free agent — especially if half or so of his contract wouldn’t count in computing whether you paid a 40% tax and, if so, how much, and you didn’t have to give up any draft choice(s) for him?  I think it OBVIOUSLY translates into $20+ million per year.

Tell me what YOU think that translates to in terms of posting fee and contract.  I estimate $75-85 million in posting fee if you’re assuming a six-year contract of $12 million per year.  You do the math and tell me what YOU come up with.

But we’ll soon find out whether it’s you or I who is correct.  If the total cost including posting fee is closer to $100 million, then you’re right.  It doesn’t sound like we’ll have to wait long — although I do think there’s a good chance that somebody (like the Red Sox) makes a huge, ballsy bid on the posting fee and lowballs on the contract offer (caring more about blocking other teams than signing him) and that Darvish stays in Japan and gets posted another year or doesn’t come to the U.S. until he’s a free agent.  It’s hard for me to imagine him taking much less than $12 million per year in any case.

But again, John, I’ve given you my rationale.  Let’s hear yours including specifics and numbers explaining exactly where you believe it’s not logical or rationale.

CircusFresh
3 years 8 months ago

What you say might be true, but lets not confuse the fact that Dice-K and Darvish have very little in common outside of the fact they both pitched in the Nippon league.

I agree though, the Red Sox with Bobby V. and the Yanks are the two big guns who will be in on Darvish.

I tend to agree with you, I think the Sox and Yanks are in on Darvish BIG TIME.  For Big money.

3 years 8 months ago

@BLEACHER CREATURE — if you’d like to put parameters on your definition of “similar” I’d take some of that action.

3 years 8 months ago

Will Darvish ever post on this again

3 years 8 months ago

why would he post on mlbtraderumors?

Commander_Nate
3 years 8 months ago

Come on, Angels, “lose” Wells’ paycheck and have it turn up in Japan…

3 years 8 months ago

I’m not sure if i’d like to have a pitcher who’s already stated he would rather stay in Japan than come over here. To me that could cause problems with motivation.

tacko
3 years 8 months ago

Sounds more like leverage-building from the Darvish camp. The same way free agents in the MLB say they want to resign with their previous teams, but so teams would offer more money to “pry” them away to their clubs.

Stuart Lock
3 years 8 months ago

But once he’s posted, the leverage really benefits his team a lot more than him. I think KyleB has a point.

edit: I’m not saying it doesn’t benefit Darvish.

tacko
3 years 8 months ago

It’s not his decision whether or not he’s posted though. Once he’s posted, he can choose to refuse or accept the contract, or stay and pitch in Japan for another season until he’s posted again. 

jordan
3 years 8 months ago

Darvish would be a beter option for the sox then overpaying for CJ

CircusFresh
3 years 8 months ago

Totally agree on that statement, especially with Bobby V. as manager.

BK
3 years 8 months ago

Watch for the Angels to be darkhorses in this process.  Especially if they can find someone to take on half of Abreus contract.

Chicksdigthelongball
3 years 8 months ago

Are you aware of DiPoto’s stated payroll limitations, and how they can’t exceed $140 million? If you think the Angels can somehow shoehorn Darvish + the AAV of his posting fee into their payroll, you should consult Dipoto’s statements.

3 years 8 months ago

October, they predicted an average posting fee of $45MM and a total commitment of over $100MM to obtain the 25-year-old. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Nationals, and Rangers.. also you can add the Red Sox and Angels to the Yu Darvish Party Train. I hope all those teams knock themsleves out by competing for him. I am thinking the Orioles should make a go for Oswalt and that’s it. If they don’t get Oswalt, maybe they should consider trying to “Outslug” the AL East. Go get Reyes, Aoki, Cespedes and so on. Also, trade for Andrew Bailey. The biggest problem wasn’t good pitching, the problem was getting them (pitchers) to last until the 6th or 7th inning and getting there in good shape. To many early exits last year!

johnsilver
3 years 8 months ago

I am of the mind Boston would go with the safer and short term sign of
Oswalt 1st over Darvish. They have a “front 3″ already set in stone who
are pretty darn good and oswalt would be a more than solid short term
addition, allowing Ranaudo, Barnes and possibly even Drake Britton time
to fully develop.

CircusFresh
3 years 8 months ago

Signing Bobby V. changed their mentality.  If I was to bet on who gets Darvish, my money is on Boston.  Bobby V. loves Japanese players.

johnsilver
3 years 8 months ago

Might be cash flow in play there some however.

ortiz and his arbitration acceptance/decline come 12/7 is an important date. if he refuses they should have more money to spend in better ways than on him, who they can replace in house with Youk, Lavarnway, or maybe even spend some of it towards someone like Willingham and then add a little bit of the average to a guy like Kuroda, possibly Darvish, Saito etc…

I am with you on Bobby v being an immense help toward ex NPB players, yet another way he should be able to help, not to mention he should be able to help with Tazawa come ST who is a tad over a year back from TJ surgery and has his velocity back, just some control problems he did not have before the surgery. bobby should be able to help more with communication problems there.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

There might be a connection there.

Aidin_D
3 years 8 months ago

If the Orioles’ success hinges on “outslugging” NY, Boston and Toronto, you guys are in for many more dark years

3 years 8 months ago

That might be true. However, I don’t really see that many free agent pitchers that can help us. So why not try an offensive approach with a solid bullpen?

Aidin_D
3 years 8 months ago

Not sure about what your guys’ farm system is like, but I’d consider upgrading through trade since guys like Gio Gonzalez, Jair Jurrgens (this one is tricky), etc. are on the market. The Jays tried to slug it out and it didn’t work. Tampa built the best rotation in the division and it did. That’s what I’m basing my comments on

nictonjr
3 years 8 months ago

I wouldn’t trade even a decent prospect for Jurrjens.  Damaged goods.  Can’t pitch on one leg…

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

Very true, pitching wins in baseball, but it is also the most unpredictable part of the game.

johnsilver
3 years 8 months ago

There is the next NYY pitcher and why Cashman was not willing to talk to Wilson’s agents.

NY needs a proven #2 and Cash can hope his NPB performance will translate. Why not gamble. Georgie’s boys have his cash and of course will give it to him (unless they go out and give it to Wilson 1st) and NY has a need.

BLEACHER_CREATURD
3 years 8 months ago

Because he could get hamels for simmilar money next year is why.

NYPOTENCE
3 years 8 months ago

The Yankees are not a “next year” type of team. I bet that they will try and grasp Darvish and then try for Hamels next year.

East Coast Bias
3 years 8 months ago

Johan/CC

vtadave
3 years 8 months ago

..because Hamels is guaranteed to be available in F/A next year?

Chicksdigthelongball
3 years 8 months ago

No, of course, you’re right, all those extension talks are going great so far.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

NY does need another pitcher, but they did finish last year with the 3rd best ERA in the AL last year, and over all one of their best pitching in the last 10 year.

Aidin_D
3 years 8 months ago

Toronto has a big Asian and Middle Eastern community. If Anthopolous thought he was worth ~100 million total, I think he could convince Rogers to make a strong bid given his marketing potential here. If this guy is everything people expect him to be, I hope the Jays strongly consider it

grownice
3 years 8 months ago

 Beeston stated they are very “Luke Warm” to the posting fee’s route for
Japanese players, i highly doubt they make a big enough bid if any. Dont get your hope’s up.

BooJays33
3 years 8 months ago

the policy there is not to divulge any info..that just just as easily be misdirection…lul teams into thinking you arent going for it and then BOOM.  just bc they didnt announce they were going to go balls out doesnt mean they wont be in the mix.  bc they will.

grownice
3 years 8 months ago

Whatever keeps your hopes up. Be prepared for disappointed though.

FriedCalamari
3 years 8 months ago

Cmon man, let us fans dream!!

grownice
3 years 8 months ago

Lol am i being a dream squasher? Yes i am , i just dont think it’ll happen, but thats why we are on this site, because ya never know!!!

FriedCalamari
3 years 8 months ago

I honestly don’t think the Jays will go after him, but man if they did. UBERBONAR

johnsilver
3 years 8 months ago

edit

Salmon4Coach
3 years 8 months ago

I don’t Understand how Darvish is right behind Cj in the top 50 free agents..I don’t understand how he is even a top free agent..This guy has proved nothing at all

Aidin_D
3 years 8 months ago

At least Darvish has performed in “the best league outside of North America.” Cespedes has barely any information available and he’s going to command a similar contract if you take away Darvish’s posting fee

CircusFresh
3 years 8 months ago

Cuban players are more of a coin toss than Japanese players.  At least there is media about Darvish.  Anyone seen Cespedes play outside of the WBC?

tacko
3 years 8 months ago

I’d rather have Bryce Harper as one of my outfielders than Shelley Duncan. 

vtadave
3 years 8 months ago

Yeah and I’d rather have Albert Pujols as my first baseman than Lyle Overbay.

MaineSox
3 years 8 months ago

I think his point is that Harper is as unproven as Darvish is, probably more so, but people aren’t as skeptical about Harper.

East Coast Bias
3 years 8 months ago

Or means Bryce Harper is Japanese and Shelley Duncan is Cuban. 

nietzschesass
3 years 8 months ago

You are right. He is not a free agent and will be under some team’s control for at least a few more years no matter what happens.

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

What other international free agent starting pitcher has ever had so many consecutive years of a 1-something ERA and been so young?  If there has ever been one, I don’t know who it’s been.

Salmon4Coach
3 years 8 months ago

Idk either but what i do know is that MLB pro’s have smashed on majority of these Asian player’s..Wont be surprised if the same is done to Darvish

UltimateYankeeFan
3 years 8 months ago

I can’t see the Yankees going all in on Darvish.  Will they bid on him? Sure.  But I doubt they bid $45MM plus just to negotiate with him and on top of that pay him $50MM plus over 5 years or so.  I just don’t see the Yankees tying up about $100MM on someone who have never pitched 1 inning in the Major Leagues.  
Just my opinion but I suspect they would rather use that money for someone in the FA class next year that has a track record in MLB.

If the piece is right we’ll find out soon enough what he goes for and where he goes.

NYPOTENCE
3 years 8 months ago

If the Yankees don’t do it there aren’t too many other teams that will. I think it’s either the Yankees or another big market team. For some reason my gut keeps leading me to the Dodgers, Hmmmm.

UltimateYankeeFan
3 years 8 months ago

Don’t count out the Blue Jays.  They have a lot of payroll flexibility.

grownice
3 years 8 months ago

 Beeston stated they are very “Luke Warm” to the posting fee’s route for Japanese players, i highly doubt they make a big enough bid if any.

nictonjr
3 years 8 months ago

Been hearing about this ‘payroll flexibility’ for years.  They Jays will be ~$75 mil.  Doesn’t leave much space for anything but more talk from the FO…

UltimateYankeeFan
3 years 8 months ago

Well if they don’t have it now after unloading Wells and extending Bautista for a fraction of what he would get on the open market then they never will have it.  BTW, both Cot’s and Baseball Reference have the Jays at about $40MM for 2012 in “committed” salaries.  Now obviously that doesn’t include arbitration cases and filling out the roster.  But that still should leave them “funny” money if they have an interest.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

The Jays are going to have to make a move soon, they are starting to look like the Marlins of a few weeks ago.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

The Jays might need Darvish more than the Sox or the Yanks. There pitching wasn’t too good last year.

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

Three teams most likely to win the Darvish sweepstakes:
#1 Boston (because they have the balls to bid super high and offer super low)
#2 Texas
#3 Washington
#4 Yankees (and maybe I’d put them even lower)

NYPOTENCE
3 years 8 months ago

Why would you put them lower?

Let me remind you that they have the need and cash to perhaps go all out for Darvish. Not saying they will but that they can.

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

Why do I put them lower, NYPOTENCE?

Two reasons:

(1) Politics.  They’re sensitive to looking bad by buying championships.  And they know that lots of journalists and other Red Sox fans will never let them hear the end of it if they’re the high bidder — even if somebody else only bid a penny less.

(2) Personality.  Cashman is measured and civil and civilized and, in my estimation, would be very unlikely to bid very high planning to make a lowball offer — both because he would be sensitive to the idea that it would be a bad faith offer and because he knows the media would bash him over the head with that accusation and others — like insulting the entire nation of Japan.

By contrast, the Red Sox did exactly that with Matsuzaka and the media not only didn’t accuse them of making a bad faith offer to him, but I recall reading at least one respected journalist suggest that Dice-K would be humiliating Japan and disrespecting his team by not accepting far less than anyone had expected him to sign for before the Red Sox won the bid and afterwards.  The Red Sox know that they’ll get creampuff treatment in the media on that score again if they do the same thing and that Darvish will be treated the same way in the press, whereas Cashman knows that it would be exactly the reverse were the Yankees to post the high bid.

Just my opinion…  We’ll know soon enough if I’m right.

P.S. If I were Cashman, I’d be bidding what I thought was VERY high — $88 million, maybe even more.  And I wouldn’t be at all sure that I’d be the high bidder even then.  I’d have no confidence whatsoever that Boston and Texas wouldn’t bid higher.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

There is no garantee with Darvish. It’s like the Phils the last 3 years they had the best pitching with nothing to show for it. Let’s not forget the Braves of the 90s.

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

It’s the same reason why the Red Sox virtually always malign their players (and apparently coaches) on the way out the door and the Yankees don’t — because the Red Sox figure they can, so they do, and the Yankees know they can, but they don’t because it’s low rent.

The Red Sox also know that except in extreme circumstances (like with Francona) the media will let them get away with serial character assassination and barely utter a peep about it.  By contrast, Cashman knows that if he even correctly questions the value of one of his players who he’s only offering 50% above market value to for twice as many years as anyone else would and invites him to get a better offer when that player is maligning the Yankees (cough Jeter cough) that the media will hang him by his toes.

Can you spell m-e-d-i-a d-o-u-b-l-e s-t-a-n-d-a-r-d?

MaineSox
3 years 8 months ago

I’ve yet to hear one thing from “the Red Sox” about a departing player/employee; it always comes from the media itself and then is tenuously linked to Lucchino, by that same media.  Saying that the Boston media is ravenous and full of hacks isn’t going to be a shock to anyone though.

CircusFresh
3 years 8 months ago

Agree, but not with the order and I would include any west coast team bc of the length of the trip from the East Coast to Japan.

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

I think you make an important point, CircusFresh.  But that seems to me to be more relevant to where Darvish might WANT to pitch, not who would be most likely to win the bidding.

So if he were to wait and become a free agent, I think we’re talking about that becoming a more important factor.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

I bet you didn’t pick too many winners in the top 50 free agents. Let’s remember if the Yanks want him they will be the highest bidders, otherwise they will let someone get him. If Cash is bidding I think he will have a ceiling, but if the owners want him like they wanted Soriano, he’s a Yankee.

vtadave
3 years 8 months ago

Your “gut” is very unreliable then.

johnsilver
3 years 8 months ago

Not wanting to stir ugly NYY memories… But exactly how much was the total for Kei Igawal, with far less credentials than Darvish again?

UltimateYankeeFan
3 years 8 months ago

$46,000,194MM total (posting fee and 5 year contract).  No question Darvish has a better resume then any of the previous pitchers coming over from Japan.   The question is how does that relate or transfer to the rigors of the ML’s.  
History tells us that Japanese pitchers have not faired all that well over time.  One year, two years yes but after that they generally tend not to be worth a huge outlay of money.  At least that’s my opinion.

johnsilver
3 years 8 months ago

NO argument on past history.. I knew the total.. Was just a “jolt” kind of there..

The need now for a #2 for the NYY, with nova not cemented as a proven yet is still there. IMO, Darvish will still go cheaper than Wilson and is still going to end up better over the long haul of a 5 year contract that whoever wins his bid will probably end up giving him.

If Cash has not yet targeted solid starter via trade, am pretty sure he has one in his sites for next year. Maybe it is a veteran to bridge the gap for his core of youngsters, who should be ready (at least 1) by the end of 2012, or maybe 2013?

No telling yet, with lots of news so far in that regard not leaking out, but I would think more flux with the rotation, other than the return of Freddy Garcia.

legaryd
3 years 8 months ago

I think the problem is less pitchers from Japan not doing well as it is pitchers that are acquired at the end of their prime.  Japanese pitchers come here after they’ve pitched in Japan for years, and have racked up more than a thousand innings on their arm.

If the standard is Japanese pitchers vs. young MLB aces in their mid 20’s, then yes, they’re inferior, but compare Japanese pitchers to MLB pitchers in free agency, then it’s an entirely different picture.

CircusFresh
3 years 8 months ago

Darvish is a different type of pitcher.  First off he is only half Japanese, half Iranian.  He is 6’5″ and 25 or 26 years old.  Also he has a HOT singer girlfriend who probably wants to live in NYC or LA or close to either.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

Dice K or Kei will not stop teams from signing Darvish. Almost all of the top free agent pitchers in the last 5 years have been busts, except for CC and Lee.

johnsilver
3 years 8 months ago

That was not my intention to say those 2 would slow down the posting for Darvish there.. I also think he will bring major $$$. Maybe not quite Matsuzaka posting fees, but his salary after the fee might equal out the 100m total Matsuzaka ended up costing over 5-6 years total.

3 years 8 months ago

Well, I at least know Theo will stay away from Darvish. Thanks, Daisuke.

CircusFresh
3 years 8 months ago

Yeah bc its crazy for Theo to offer Dice-K a contract after his expires with Boston.  LOL dream on brother, he signed Dice-K.  Cubbies are funny.

3 years 8 months ago

Huh? I don’t understand anything about your response. Anything.

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

I wouldn’t be so sure Theo won’t be in on Darvish — although I know absolutely nothing about the Cubs’ finances.

3 years 8 months ago

Clearly, my semi-sarcasm font doesn’t work. The Cubs have a fairly decent sized amount of money to “play with” and starting pitching is definitely a need, but I don’t think Theo would go near Darvish. I said this (somewhat sarcastically) because of the mostly failed experiment that was Daisuke. Maybe after ’12, when the Cubs would only have $30 in commitments, but I can’t see Theo going for someone who isn’t quite a proven commodity right now. I’d rather he throw whatever available money for big FA at Prince.

Madman2TX
3 years 8 months ago

I don’t think the Yankees or Red Sox will win the bidding, having been burned on Japanese pitchers before. I think it is the Rangers who will bid on and win Darvish.

NYPOTENCE
3 years 8 months ago

Clearly biased, but do see them as an option.

3 years 8 months ago

I don’t think it’s bias, I think he’s just stating a broad opinion. I agree with him and I have a feeling the Rangers will win the bidding by surprise. That doesn’t mean, as a Rangers fan, that I want him here though.
If anything, I’m still unsure about how I would feel if my team got him.

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

Texas and Boston are logically most likely to be the most aggressive bidders.  My money’s on Boston — especially with Valentine now knowledgeable about Darvish and cheerleading for him.

CircusFresh
3 years 8 months ago

totally agree with the Bobby V. comments.  Its why Ill put my money on Boston.

Ned Gold
3 years 8 months ago

I want the Red Sox to get this guy. Let Reddick/Kalish play the outfield, and spend the money that came off the books with Drew etc. on PITCHING.

3 years 8 months ago

I would say it will require 45+m for posting fee plus 6/70~80m.  Darivsh has all the leverage in the world.  Darvish earned 7m in 2011, and if he wins arb then will make 9~10m in 2012.  Probably 11~12m in 2013, 13~14m in 2014.  Plus he has been saying ever since he was 20, that he doesn’t have strong desire to play in MLB instead he wants to be a HOFer in NPB.   He will be FA after 2014 season and still be just 28.  

He will never give discounts.  This guy simply doesn’t care about going to MLB.  Whoever offers him the best money will earn his service.  Total of 120~130m would be required to get his service as he would not mind playing at Japan another 3 years, making 35m through 2014, then test FA market.  He would be still 28 and easily earn 5/80m.     

I’m not saying any teams will spend 120~130m to get 6 years of service. So probably a team will win posting but both sides won’t make an agreement.

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

I agree with you about the minimum contract that Darvish might even consider and I agree with you that there’s a good chance he doesn’t take whatever the winning bidder offers.  But I can’t imagine the winning bid being only $45 million.  As Vizzini said in the Princess Bride, to me that would be inconceivable.

JunKim
3 years 8 months ago

That’s why I wrote 45+.  45M would be the bottom line and may accelerate over 50.  Wonder how many teams would go for it.. This guy is at another level comparing to Dice-K.  Easily the best Japanese player ever given his size, stuff, and stats. But 120~130m for unproven player? meh…

Justanotherfantoo
3 years 8 months ago

Is Darvish really unproven?  Or have Japanese player’s stats translated to the U.S. with an adjustment factor?

If you adjust Darvish’s ERA up by 50%, that would still make him one of the handful of the best pitchers in the game, in his 20’s, who wouldn’t cost you any draft pick(s), and much of whose compensation wouldn’t count in the luxury tax calculation.  What is all of that worth?  When I play around with the numbers, I come up with it being worth more than $50-60 million plus $12 million per year for six years.  I come up with more like $75-85 million and $12 million per year — or $145-155 million.

And again, if I’m a GM, why don’t I bid high and lowball the contract offer to block my rivals from getting him?  That’s a flaw in the system, but it’s there for now.  I would be shocked if the Red Sox don’t take advantage of it and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rangers did either.

JunKim
3 years 8 months ago

Look at NPB pitchers number man.. there are like dozens of pitchers who has 1.XX era.  I’ve watched his pitching number of times but I don’t think he has that much dominant stuff comparing true elite pitchers in big league. Can you believe there is only “1” player in NPB whose average is above .300?

nebelski
3 years 8 months ago

Pittsburgh will win the bidding… 5 years/$15M