Reds Very Interested In Jair Jurrjens?

7:58pm: MLB.com's Mark Sheldon hears from a source that the Reds' interest in Jurrjens has been overblown, and that Cincinnati doesn't appear to be going hard after the right-hander.

6:29pm: The Reds are "very interested" in trading for Braves starter Jair Jurrjens, tweets MLB Network's Jon Heyman. They could face stiff competition though, as Heyman adds that ten teams are involved.

It was reported during the GM meetings that the Reds had inquired on Jurrjens as part of their search for a front-end starting pitcher. GM Walt Jocketty said over the weekend that Cincinnati has a list of six potential trade targets, so presumably Jurrjens is at or near the top of that list.

Earlier today, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the Braves may wait until major free agent arms like C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle sign to make a decision on Jurrjens, since interest could increase with fewer options on the market.


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252 Comments on "Reds Very Interested In Jair Jurrjens?"


BaseballLogic_Braves
3 years 8 months ago

Yonder please!

Devern Hansack
3 years 8 months ago

Jurrjens for Alonso+ sounds like a fair trade. Alonso could play left in the event that Prado is traded.

WisBrave
3 years 8 months ago

 Alonso in a platoon with Matt Diaz?

notsureifsrs
3 years 8 months ago

they can do way better than jurrjens for alonso+

inkstainedscribe
3 years 8 months ago

Heisey?

3 years 8 months ago

Jurrjens for Alonso or Drew Stubbs? only seems fair…

3 years 8 months ago

alonso is better suited to 1B and stubbs has really bad slumps and a high K rating

3 years 8 months ago

That deal is not even close. Jurrjens for Stubbs straight up is a rip off for the Reds

Brv Rocks
3 years 8 months ago

I think you meant to say that Jurrjens for Stubbs straight up is a rip off for the Braves.  No way the Reds make that deal.

avpisano
3 years 8 months ago

Your nuts!  You must be a Reds fan who wants more!  Stubbs is K machine and has no track record.  Nice try

3 years 8 months ago

I would not say no track record… He has hit for some decent power in the past and he has great speed.  He just needs to learn how to run the bases.

3 years 8 months ago

Jurrjens for Heisey and Cozart??

3 years 8 months ago

I like that trade… A LOT

CalvaryCougar
3 years 8 months ago

no our starting LF and SS?

3 years 8 months ago

That moves Alonso to LF.  Can’t be worse than Dunn out there right?? Frazier could play SS or as I suggested below, BP to SS and Prado included in a deal.

CalvaryCougar
3 years 8 months ago

frazier is not strong enough defensively to plays SS and bp wont be moved to ss or it would already have happened

3 years 8 months ago

I agree Frazier is not ready to be a starter at all. Bench player or partial player yes but not full time.

Also Reds have no intention of moving Gold Glove Phillips to SS.

3 years 8 months ago

Reds arent giving up Cozart, hes the only player in the system that looks to pass for a ML SS. Heisey is unlikely also since hes the best in house, low cost option for left. Plus, hes a damn good pinch hitter. Alonso+ with the plus being not much more is the only deal Walt would make, and trust me, hes not afraid to walk away from a deal.  Stubbs is interesting. He is a top quality defender in CF, but DLee is right, he goes through long spells being an easy out.

3 years 8 months ago

Alonso is a good trade chip, but I doubt he goes to Atlanta.  All indications seem that Atlanta wants a righty with some power. 

CalvaryCougar
3 years 8 months ago

drew stubbs?

3 years 8 months ago

He wouldn’t be a bad option, he just needs to improve his plate discipline to cut down on his K’s.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

Dude….if the Reds feel like they’re 1 pitcher away from competing then Heisey and Cozart should not stand in the way. Sign a glove first SS and one of the many corner OF’ers on the market to a 1 year deal and keep it moving. Neither Heisey or Cozart appear to be impact players. JJ i far from the #1 or #2 that Braves’ fan makes him out to be but he is still a solid pitcher for a NL West team.

Kayrall
3 years 8 months ago

Red are in the NL Central.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

you know what I meant.

3 years 8 months ago

 They feel they are an ace away from competing yes but that was with Cozart as our starting shortstop and producing close to what he showed in his short span in MLB and his track record in the minors.  You can’t trade your shortstop of the future to make one stab at it without a guy to fill in at short at all.  We can’t buy fill-in players worthy enough to compete

3 years 8 months ago

Sorry mate, Don’t know if you follow the Reds close but Cozart is highly regarded by the team.  Heisey I could see going especially if these Willingham rumors are true.   There are not any good SS out there that the Reds could afford.   I am not sold on this Braves pitch JJ.  His stats seem mediocre to me maybe a number 3 guy.  Someone show me something that makes this guy any good.

rundmc1981
3 years 8 months ago

Go read the stats for yourself. He’s young, affordable, and when not injured, he’s good. No, he’s not a fire-baller, but do you really have to be? Frankly, Jurrjens is a better option than 4 years of Mark Buerhle or a $100M contract for CJ Wilson. Jurrjens has proved he can pitch up to the level of a Halladay last year and has done that consistently for a few years. He does have some injury concerns, but none arm related. 

And I don’t think ATL would be interested in Cozart (unfortunately) anyway. He’s a long-term solution for our short-term need. We have multiple guys almost ready. Stick with Cozart, he looks like a young Michael Young.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

Who cares if it’s arm related? A knee problem can keep him on the DL and effect his ability just the same.

As for Cozart, his value is similar to Eduardo Nunez. Neither project to be stars but are capable of handling the job full-time and are inexpensive with some chance of improving with experience. Don’t make him out to be the next Larkin.

3 years 8 months ago

Cozart is not going anywhere the Reds need him they have no other SS ready to be even close to the Bigs yet.  Unless your sending us back a new SS. No Way..

3 years 8 months ago

I think it won’t be a straight up JJ for Alonso. I bet they’ll try to get Stubbs also, Reds might also be willing to give that up also. Stubbs and your 1B turned slow LF for a #1 or #2 guy that is YOUNG! I could see that happening

CalvaryCougar
3 years 8 months ago

i can see the reds giving stubbs and yonder

Brv Rocks
3 years 8 months ago

I can’t see that AT ALL and I’m a Braves fan.

slasher016
3 years 8 months ago

There is no chance the Reds would include Stubbs and Yonder.

3 years 8 months ago

Braves would have to send something else usable back for that trade to happen. Usable meaning someone that could play CF

Bob
3 years 8 months ago

Jurrjens is not a #1 or #2

alex7deal
3 years 8 months ago

So, Are you saying JJ in the first half was a 3 or 4 because he was kinda in the lead for the CY then…?

notsureifsrs
3 years 8 months ago

he’s probably saying you don’t get to cherry pick data like that just to fit your bias

alex7deal
3 years 8 months ago

I could see that, but I doubt it. 

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

ok…let’s say he was #1 or #2 in the 1st half. He was certainly more like a #4 or #5 in the 2nd. Average the two out and what do you have? 

alex7deal
3 years 8 months ago

He was injured in the 2nd half and you know that.

JJ does have his risks, but apparently you are smarter than those 10 teams contacting the Braves with the opinion that his risks are higher then his reward

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

He went on the DL in August but that doesn’t explain his 3.96 FIP in June and 4.03 FIP in July.

Look no one says he isn’t a good pitcher and OF COURSE 10 teams, including the Yankees, should be interested in him. However, you and a lot of Braves fans want to harp on the 1st half and completely ignore all the other issues he has. All I’m saying is, in this forum, don’t accentuate the positives and expect others to ignore the negatives and those negatives are what will probably keep the Braves from getting the return that some of you suggest.

Jeff
3 years 8 months ago

His knee was acting up in July, he was playing through it since well, he was on pace for a Cy Young potentially until the ASB.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

Why is that a legit excuse? Again, you have to factor in his health in the equation.

3 years 8 months ago

I think he is more a number 3 or maybe number 2 guy if he can stay healthy.

cbaseball
3 years 8 months ago

thats false

Gerod11
3 years 8 months ago

and you touch baby kittens

Karkat
3 years 8 months ago

Jurrjens puzzles me. I tend to think of him as overrated, and the advanced metrics suggest that he has, indeed, been pitching above his level. In fact, xFIP, tERA, and SIERA all have (astoundingly similar) numbers in the neighborhood of 4.20.  Then again, Jurrjens has been pitching “above his level” pretty consistently recently (excepting 2010, but he was hurt then, I believe?).  Instinct wants me to say “Well, must be the Braves defense,” but I’m wondering how reasonable that really is.

Regardless, I wouldn’t trade what’s likely being asked for him, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect from Jurrgens a) an ERA in the 3.50-3.75 region and b) a ton of grounders.  Solid number 2?

erm016
3 years 8 months ago

The hell with advanced metrics. 

NYBravosFan10
3 years 8 months ago

i agree

Karkat
3 years 8 months ago

I’m a mathematician, I can’t help it -_-

NYBravosFan10
3 years 8 months ago

you’re excused as long as you admit that most of them sound like abbreviations for diseases.

Karkat
3 years 8 months ago

Man, my buddy somehow caught the xFIP last year. Took him six weeks to get rid of.

NYBravosFan10
3 years 8 months ago

lol, FIP actually is a fatal disease in cats.

FamousGrouse
3 years 8 months ago

Lets imagine xFIP, tERA and SIERA are points in a sphere, and the ideal performance is the surface of the sphere…   

Beavis De Beppo
3 years 8 months ago

Lets not.

notsureifsrs
3 years 8 months ago

“every other season” (twice in four years for FIP) isn’t what we typically mean by consistency. and his groundball rate is near the league average

he’s less of a risk for an NL central team like the reds, but still not worth alonso imo

Karkat
3 years 8 months ago

Well, three of the last four, anyway. And the excluded one is one where he was hurt.

notsureifsrs
3 years 8 months ago

he’s only outperformed his FIP twice. did you catch this  last week? helps

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-random-walk-with-fip/

Karkat
3 years 8 months ago

Ack, I was partially looking in the wrong row, although he still did (marginally) outpitch his xFIP (and tERA/SIERA) in 2008, though not as much as I originally thought (because I just looked at his 2009 ERA twice).

I need to stop doing baseball analysis parallel with homework.

MaineSox
3 years 8 months ago

Just stop doing homework.

Guest
3 years 8 months ago

Well said, Red Sox fan. I have to agree with everything you said. I’m also cautious about the Braves desire to even move him in the first place. 

Triple Hawpes Brewed
3 years 8 months ago

Right, because they don’t have the depth to replace him or other greater needs than pitching.

3 years 8 months ago

This is how I feel too though.  The guy seems like maybe a number 2.  Cueto seems to be overall improving each year and could be a quality number 1 guy this season.

Jeff
3 years 8 months ago

The Braves defense is pretty bad in general- the only plus defenders they had were A-Gon and Bourn last year.  Freeman’s great at scooping, Heyward’s average, the rest are garden  gnomes.

NYBravosFan10
3 years 8 months ago

If he’s gonna trade JJ I think Stubbs or Bruce is going to have be involved. That’s pretty much what Wren has been getting at when it comes to what he wants in return.

Guest
3 years 8 months ago

Not Bruce. They (Cincy) wouldn’t do it

CalvaryCougar
3 years 8 months ago

bruce is signed for 9 more years, they wouldnt give up bruce, but maybe stubbs and yonder

TophersReds
3 years 8 months ago

By the way, Bruce isn’t signed for 9 more years. It’s like 6 more.

CalvaryCougar
3 years 8 months ago

ah your right

NYBravosFan10
3 years 8 months ago

I’m just saying that Jay Bruce is the type of return that Wren is looking for. He’s prolly saying “Listen Walt, we don’t need to trade this guy so it doesn’t hurt us one bit that you aren’t willing to give a substantial return for a young stud that could anchor that question mark you have for a pitching staff. Give us Bruce, put Heisey in right and Alonso in left and we’ll treat Mr. Bruce very nicely and give him a good home. You can visit anytime you want”

CalvaryCougar
3 years 8 months ago

jair jurrjens is a question mark himself

NYBravosFan10
3 years 8 months ago

I agree that he’s definitely a gamble. But if it goes right the boy is a serious threat for 20 wins and a sub 2.50 ERA and sub 1.05 WHIP. If it goes wrong…then…sorry…

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

wow.

3 years 8 months ago

your really high on this guy aren’t you ..  I don’t seem him being that pitcher maybe a 16 game winner 18 tops.

Kayrall
3 years 8 months ago

He’s never had a 20 win season nor an ERA below or at 2.50.

3 years 8 months ago

Your post reminded me of Jar Jar Binks haha..

Gunner65
3 years 8 months ago

No chance Bruce is included for Jurrjens. His contract & production make him too valuable to a small market team. Alonso, Heisey & a low level minor leaguer is about the best they’ll get. 

CalvaryCougar
3 years 8 months ago

also we dont need to trade jay bruce LOL

philliesfan136
3 years 8 months ago

I can’t see any way the Reds would give up Bruce for Jurrjens straight up.

Jeff
3 years 8 months ago

Bruce for JJ+ Spruill+ Milligan?

cbaseball
3 years 8 months ago

the braves arent looking to make a deal they are looking for a great return that will help them out so it would have to be for a guy like Bruce

TophersReds
3 years 8 months ago

Well you’re crazy. Bruce said many times that he wants to have his whole career in Cincy. It’s rare when a guy with his kind of production says a statement like that.

3 years 8 months ago

That aside about him wanting to stay in Cincy his whole career,  He is not going anywhere he is a very good player that is signed to a team friendly deal and they don’t want to create more holes in a trade what would be the point.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

prepare to be disappointed. 

Look….Wren has made it clear he wants to unload salary and use it to put towards a bat. With 3 pitchers cemented on the staff and another 3 cheaper and possibly better alternatives mlb ready, then while they don’t have to trade JJ it certainly makes sense to do so. 

The only way JJ nets what most fans think they deserve is if they hold on to him and he has a great 1st half in 2012.

Jeff
3 years 8 months ago

The best trade target for JJ is a team that has a similar problem the Braves have with shortstops or left fielders.

3 years 8 months ago

I don’t see Bruce being involved unless Atlanta throws in some more pieces.  Can Phillips play, or would he move to SS?  If so maybe Prado would be involved in a much bigger trade.

dylanp5030
3 years 8 months ago

Bruce is one of the most valuable players in entire league…JJ isn’t worth Bruce, not even close.

3 years 8 months ago

Bruce is signed to a huge team friendly deal.  He is not going anywhere.

NYBravosFan10
3 years 8 months ago

10 teams?!?! Damn son I only knew about like 5.

athensmatt
3 years 8 months ago

that’s crazy!  an 11-team trade?!?!

athensmatt
3 years 8 months ago

no, but seriously, with that many teams interested, it sounds like wren will get a lot of packages thrown his way.  

athensmatt
3 years 8 months ago

or, um, some interesting trade proposals?

3 years 8 months ago

Alonso and Travis Wood for JJ and Moylan

3 years 8 months ago

you can have moylan for your best bat boy

3 years 8 months ago

Why have Braves fans turned against Moylan? He’s a central part of our team’s personality, a great story, and one of the better relievers in baseball when healthy. It’s not like we’re paying him Hampton money or anything.

roberty
3 years 8 months ago

Moylan will likely miss the entire 2012 season.  It is possible his career is over. 

Jeff
3 years 8 months ago

The other reason, if Moylan was healthy, we have a younger, cheaper, less Australian Moylan in AAA in Gearrin.

rundmc1981
3 years 8 months ago

He’s unreliable and we paid him $2M for 8.1 IP in 2011. His price will keep growing and he’s not worth that considering the arms we have in AAA. If we need clubhouse color, I’m sure we can get Carrot Top for cheaper than that.

jsmoltz29
3 years 8 months ago

Is Moylan under contract at this point?

CowboyJames
3 years 8 months ago

yes Moylan was picked up

3 years 8 months ago

Before all this gets hyped up about loss of velocity. I would like to inform you to the real reason for the drop of velocity.

First off, Jair Jurrjens is not a power pitcher when his top speed is 94. 

But, over last offseason, Jonny Venters taught Jair his sinker/2 seam grip to help him get alot more movement, but sacrifice velocity. He uses those grip to hit the corners in a way that jams or hits off the end of the bat which results in a huge FB%

His knee does not affect his velocity, he dropped velocity by choice.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jair-jurrjens-the-new-cain/

it says that right here ^^^^

Gunner65
3 years 8 months ago

Kind of amazing how 94 isn’t an elite power pitcher anymore. Twenty-five years ago 94 was rare. I remember watching Nolan Ryan, probably the top power pitcher of his era, throwing one of his no hitters in the 70’s on TV and he was 92-93 tops. Now we have guys throwing 104-105 lol

TophersReds
3 years 8 months ago

The one and only Cuban Missile of the Reds =).

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

When in the 70’s was Ryan topping out at 92-93?

Jeff
3 years 8 months ago

Starters probably had to conserve energy more in the 70s due to throwing more innings with 4-man rotations and fewer relievers.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

Did you miss this part too?

“So we’re left wondering. This being the start of the SABR convention, we didn’t have time to do extensive HitTracker sleuthing and similar research to pin down exactly what kind of contact Jurrjens is inducing and whether or not it’s sustainable. Hopefully Team Dave Allen can pick up the torch and check it out”. 

the whole “whether or not it’s sustainable”?

AFCFAN06
3 years 8 months ago

I ,like stubbs alot hope hes in a trade if braves do one with reds

CalvaryCougar
3 years 8 months ago

imo id feel that he wold be available as heisey can play center and so can sappelt and denis phipps

3 years 8 months ago

I guarentee yonder doesn’t move, especially not in this trade. braves fans are dreaming if they think they’re getting yonder or bruce in this deal. maybe stubbs, but thats not too likely either. valaika or juan francisco are much more realistic

CalvaryCougar
3 years 8 months ago

coming from a reds fan, that isnt enough for the braves

Colin Christopher
3 years 8 months ago

Reds fans are dreaming if they think they’re getting Jair Jurrjens for Valaika or Francisco. That’s nowhere close to realistic.

NYBravosFan10
3 years 8 months ago

well if you aren’t willing to include 1 or 2 of Bruce, Heisey, Stubbs, Alonso and Cozart then go pound salt

slasher016
3 years 8 months ago

There’s going to be a lot of salt pounding then as there’s absolutely no chance the Reds give up two of that group.

Colin Christopher
3 years 8 months ago

I’m a Braves fan, but even I agree with that.

Daniel Han
3 years 8 months ago

why would anybody want cozart

3 years 8 months ago

Atlanta has been mentioned to want insurance in CF for when Bourn hits FA in a year.  They also have LF and 3B as possible needs. I don’t see Freeman moving from 1B so not sure why they would really want Alonso.

I could see a couple different packages work for them.

Fransisco(3B with mammoth power potential LHB)+Heisey(LF/CF who gives you power RHB)+ lower level middle infielder with upside such as Ronald Torreyes or Henry Rodriguez …both those guys project to be MLB 2B in the future or could shift to 3B

or

Drew Stubbs(CF with major speed and some pop)+Frazier(LF/3B power RHB)+lower level guy

If they want Alonso, I’d go Alonso + Sappelt(CF/LF)

Jurrjens doesn’t throw 200+ innings year in and year out therefore price tag isn’t as steep as if we were to trade for a legit ace

3 years 8 months ago

That just made me think the Braves need a 3b.  We will send you Scott Rolen hehe..   ok I know I should be stoned for saying that ..  Nobody is going to want him. 

3 years 8 months ago

 I was thinking long term for the Braves.  I know Chipper is there now but with one tough play he could be done for the season or entirely.  He’s getting up there just like Rolen. I think this is the last year for Rolen and Fransisco or Frazier takes over 3B in 2013.

Beavis De Beppo
3 years 8 months ago

Here’s to hoping Frazier or Francisco takes over 3B in 2012.

Jeff
3 years 8 months ago

I think they already have that insurance- they could move Heyward over there, especially if he doesn’t rebound his bat fully from last year.  I think he  could at least be tolerable out there. 

alex7deal
3 years 8 months ago

Just so the ranting about Jurrjens Dropping velocity stops. read this article

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jair-jurrjens-the-new-cain/

Beavis De Beppo
3 years 8 months ago

I’ve been watching this thing all night and haven’t read one comment about his velocity dropping….other than this.

3 years 8 months ago

There is good info in the advanced metrics, but there are too many un-measurable variables in the game of baseball to bank on them. They will tell you who to look at, but then by gosh you have to LOOK at them to make a decision.

dshires4
3 years 8 months ago

How in the world do some people overrate Jurrjens like they do? I understand Atlanta playing their little “we value him as a front of the line starter” — but the Reds? Really? Jurrjens is no better than a 3rd starter going forward, and he’s probably a fourth of fifth starter if he continues to strike out roughly 6 k/9 and 2.5 bb/9..

At that price, go ahead Atlanta, let him be your uninspiring front of the rotation talent.

alex7deal
3 years 8 months ago

I’m sorry that all pitcher’s aren’t strikeout pitchers.

So are you saying JJ’s first half was not a front of the line starter material??

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

Ok what was his 2nd half and why do you constantly ignore that? 

Phil Hughes had a great 1st half in 2010 followed by a horrible 2nd half. Guess which one mattered? BOTH!

bravesdude
3 years 8 months ago

I’m not gonna get smart with you on this . His knee had a lot to do with that second half . But his first is a little proof of what he is capable of when not injured . Oh , and he is perfectly healthy . He has stated that he is perfectly fine and was actually scheduled to make a start if the Braves were able to have made the playoffs .

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

He stated it. Really? That’s what you want us to go by. Ok.

3 years 8 months ago

you can’t base a pitcher on a half season though and a lot of people seem to be counting on that half season as what he will do for his career.

If that is the case Bronson Arroyo in 2010 would be staff ace on any staff with that thinking.

Oh wait that was the 2nd half not the first of 2010 sorry.

manlytomb
3 years 8 months ago

It may have something to do with the fact that he’s posted sub-3 ERAs in two of the past three seasons. His peripherals don’t support that level of play, of course, but even if he regresses to, say, a 3.5 or 3.6 ERA, he’s still a very valuable commodity and should be handled as such by the Braves organization. Realistically, I doubt they see him as an actual ace, but it’s a good idea to overvalue players going into trade negotiations, so that you can give some ground and still get your money’s worth.

dshires4
3 years 8 months ago

I mean, I’m well aware that the casual fan may look at his ERA and fap, but an organization that seems to be well run shouldn’t be looking to add marginal arms unless they plan on using him as a stop-gap until they figure out what to do with Chapman, and to wait until some of the arms in their system reach the MLB.

He may be a valuable commodity, but in no way should he be viewed as a front-line commodity. If you’re arguing from the Reds perspective, I’d say it’s not valuable to overvalue him from the start. As a Braves office member, no doubt you’d value and market him as an ace though.

manlytomb
3 years 8 months ago

Certainly, waiting and stockpiling farm system arms is preferable if you’ve got the time and are out of contention; however, the Reds, who tied for second in the National League in runs scored this season, probably see themselves contending in 2012 if they add a couple of solid, established pitchers and get some bounce-back seasons from their existing crop.

Based on his peripherals, you can argue Jurrjens’ merits as a number X starter all day, but for a team that started Edinson Volquez and Bronson Arroyo a combined 52 times in 2011, Jurrjens probably looks pretty damn good. As such, the Reds are probably willing to overpay somewhat, and to that end, they match up pretty well with the Braves’ wants.

dshires4
3 years 8 months ago

That isn’t the point though. I mean, sure, we can argue probability of a breakout and such all day, and it looks like we pretty much agree for the most part, but why trade pieces for a guy that really isn’t that much better than what a random AAA arm could probably post in a full season?

manlytomb
3 years 8 months ago

Forgive me for being unfamiliar with the Reds’ system, but do they really have anyone just sitting in AAA that could match Jurrjens’ potential performance in 2012?

In any case, if the Reds are willing to move farm pieces for Jurrjens-type pitchers, I’d speculate that they also feel that their window of contention is closing, perhaps with Joey Votto’s contract expiring after 2013.

Beavis De Beppo
3 years 8 months ago

Farm pieces are one thing.  Braves fans want guys like Jay Bruce or drew Stubbs along with an Alonso or Cozart.  JJ looks awful enticing after what we were subjected to last year, but we aren’t willing to grossly overpay for him.  I’d be much more content on hoping Leake, Chapman, Wood, and Bailey all take a step forward in 2012 and that Arroyo returns to form and Cueto continues to improve.

manlytomb
3 years 8 months ago

I suspect that Braves fans and the Braves organization have very different expectations of what to expect from trade returns.

dshires4
3 years 8 months ago

Take away name recognition and look at the stats. A 6 K/9 with a 3 BB/9, on top of giving up 20% LD, and that’s not all that hard to find, I’d bet. That sounds like just your average, run of the mill AAA pitcher making spot starts. But since it’s Jurrjens, the name recognition comes with potential, and a couple decent years which he’s a couple bad years removed from.

I’m not saying I’m an expert on the Reds system; far from it, I’m a Mariners fan. But just eyeing out his statistics, it shouldn’t be too hard to find a guy to come up who can post a 2 WAR season that’s already in the farm system. No need to overpay for a back-end starter.

Beavis De Beppo
3 years 8 months ago

I agree completely.  But those guys aren’t down on the farm.  They are already on the roster.  The Reds have 2 or 3 guys with Jurrjens-like potential.  They just haven’t met it yet, which is why I am more content to NOT move an Alonso-type for JJ.

jhawk1000
3 years 8 months ago

Gee those K numbers look a lot like a guy named Maddux. Didn’t strike out a bunch, had lower walk totals no doubt and he didn’t throw 90-92. My point is JJ is really just now learning to pitch not just throw, and he’s 25. Something to think about.

dshires4
3 years 8 months ago

And the walk ratios that Jurrjens has posted are DOUBLE what Maddux posted.

notsureifsrs
3 years 8 months ago

wow

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

x5.

He picks the similar K rate and ignores the durability (14 straight years of 200+ IP), the pin point control (1.8/9 lifetime) and the high GB rate of over 50% for his career.

jhawk1000
3 years 8 months ago

It wasn’t my intention to ignore durability or lifetime GB% , just stating that Jurrjens is learning to pitch not just throw. In addition to that I’m in no way saying JJ is the next Maddux far from it at this point. Would I like him to be out there 240 innings every yearwith a higher GB% you bet, but what you seem to have lost in my point was that you don’t have to strike out a ton of guys and be a flamethrower to be successful.

notsureifsrs
3 years 8 months ago

what evidence is there that he’s “learning how to pitch” (whatever that is supposed to mean)? he gave up more contact than ever before and missed the fewest bats he ever has, but the contact wasn’t especially weak. over 21% of balls in play were line drives (close to a career high), his groundball rate was average (not a career high), and he drew a career low in pop-ups

it’s easy to just say he’s experimenting and learning, these are throwaway sports cliches unless there’s data to back them up. his velocity dropped and he started throwing a different pitch. ok, cool. but his results weren’t promising and his overall peripherals are mediocre

you can have a hunch that he will become a great pitcher, but he isn’t one now

bravesdude
3 years 8 months ago

13-6 with an ERA of 2.98 is not promising ?

YanksFanSince78
3 years 8 months ago

you just brought a butter knife to a machine gun fight buddy. 

Is Ryan Volgesong better than Matt Cain simply because he had more wins and a slightly better ERA?

No one said he’s devoid of promise. Still not sure why bring up his 2009 numbers and ignore 1 1/2 seasons of 2010 and 2011 though.

notsureifsrs
3 years 8 months ago

is it possible to achieve those results without pitching particularly well? i trust you know it is

consequently, glancing at those numbers is not enough to draw firm conclusions about his individual performance

i just reviewed some of the data that suggesting his individual results were not in fact so good. again:

– FIP- 105 (5% worse than league average)
– SIERA 4.43 (worse than  average)
– tERA 4.59 (worse than average)
– low BABIP despite high LD%
– average GB%
– very low swinging strike %

not promising

Colin Christopher
3 years 8 months ago

I appreciate the comparison of the numbers, because I am a Braves fan with fond memories of watching Maddux take the hill every five days AND an appreciation for what Jurrjens has done for the franchise in the last few years. That being said…

PLEASE don’t compare Jurrjens to Greg Maddux. Jurrjens is 25 and has thrown more than 200 innings once. When Maddux was 25, he was in the midst of a six-season run in which he averaged 254 innings. When Jurrjens can sustain his success for a full season, and for several seasons in a row, well…then I’ll happily revisit this conversation.

jhawk1000
3 years 8 months ago

My comparison is in that you don’t have to strike out 10 plus batters whey start and throw 95 to be successful in the majors. Maddux used movement, location and change of speed for all those years, as I also well remember. To your point though YES Maddux was an innings eater, like 8 IP for 34 starts every year for 5-6 years. Believe me that was NOT my point in the comparison at all.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

There was only one Maddux, a true immortal pitcher!

Colin Christopher
3 years 8 months ago

Fair enough…that’s what I thought you were getting at, but I wanted to be sure. We’re on the same page, then.

And yes, you’re right. You don’t have to be a flamethrower to succeed. Mark Buehrle, anyone? (Or any “washed-up” veteran Dave Duncan has ever worked with?)

3 years 8 months ago

I have the Braves always have .. sorry nothing personal against any poster here.  I just can’t stand them and that Chop drives me nuts.   I too loved watching Maddox pitch.  A true pitcher with talent that is hard to find anymore .

John Adams
3 years 8 months ago

Braves are in control. Multiple teams lined up for JJ and Prado. 

3 years 8 months ago

Doesn’t mean all the teams on the other side are stupid.  They can walk out just as easy.

bravesdude
3 years 8 months ago

As of 9:34 pm ET , the Reds GM is pushing the hardest to acquire Jurrjens . They look at him being a front end of the rotation starter .

Hmmm

Beavis De Beppo
3 years 8 months ago

Heyman?  Reds beat reporter said their interest is way overblown…I trust Sheldon on this one…

Colin Christopher
3 years 8 months ago

Me too. Although if there’s one thing we can be sure of based on past years, it’s that no rumor, no matter who it comes from, is anywhere close to true until the player has signed on the dotted line.

bravesdude
3 years 8 months ago

As a Reds fan , I’m sure you would . But Heyman is actually there at the winter meetings talking to the guys that actually make the deals for your team . I’ll take his word on it .

3 years 8 months ago

Sheldon is out there as well.  And he has a close working relationship with the Reds FO.  Heyman tweets anything whispered in his ear.

quadbravesfan
3 years 8 months ago

My guess is Stubbs (ehh) or Alonso with a guy like Sappelt, Francisco, or Hamilton. With the Braves throwing a AA pitcher in. Oh and if the Reds have a decent AAA/AA LOOGY Wren will get him.  This guy will become a star lol.

3 years 8 months ago

Hamilton isn’t going anywhere.. Not even for Complete Game James

Jeff
3 years 8 months ago

Spruill would be a good AA pickup for the Reds.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

Stubbs and Frazier for JJ

NYBravosFan10
3 years 8 months ago

tell me about this Frazier guy. I don’t know anything about him.

quadbravesfan
3 years 8 months ago

Pure UT guy. Can play like 6 spots.

NYBravosFan10
3 years 8 months ago

CF?

slasher016
3 years 8 months ago

Not really.  He’s strong in the corners, and solid at third and 2nd.  He can play SS, but probably wouldn’t be an ideal solution there long-term.

Curtis Main
3 years 8 months ago

His bat looks like it could play at 3rd but not in LF. I know nothing of his defense at any position. He is kinda old for a “prospect” (25). Do the Reds keep their players in the minors longer than most teams? All the names being thrown around are guys with very limited ML experience but are all older than 25. This Cozart I keep hearing about, who I thought was a young prospect, is already 26.

Gunner65
3 years 8 months ago

Reds tend to draft a lot of college middle infielders & only push the top prospects. The guys who grade out as average MLers they tend to let them bake a little longer than other teams. 

Beavis De Beppo
3 years 8 months ago

He was a LLWS hero, champion; Junior PeeWee Natl Champion, Big East Player of the year and All-American at Rutgers and the Reds’ first pick in ’07.  Utility-type guy, 3B and corner outfielder.  Gave my boys their first autograph the other day at RedsFest.  Good kid, lots of potential.

3 years 8 months ago

He makes an ok bench player he can play anywhere on the infield. Has really never done anything major.  Great guy met him 2 years ago at Reds Caravan.  Thats about it.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

I think Frazier is a good fit with the Braves along with Stubbs. This would take care of their OF and utility problem.

slider32
3 years 8 months ago

Frazier- little league world series hero, utility typer player, could be another DeRosa.