Here’s a collection of reactions to the Diamondbacks’ shocking trade of outfielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Aaron Blair and 2015 No. 1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson to the Braves for pitchers Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier.
- The Braves’ return for Miller was gigantic, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Law notes that he’s a fan of Miller’s and that the trade and the Zack Greinke signing make the Diamondbacks much better next season, but that the price the Diamondbacks paid was “comically high.” Swanson is a polished and very talented college player who could move through the minors quickly, the way Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber did. Blair gets plenty of ground balls and has “a hint of Brandon Webb” to him. And Law writes that he would rather have six years of Blair or five years of Inciarte for the three years of Miller the Diamondbacks will receive.
- The deal “looks like a clear, obvious mistake” for the Diamondbacks, FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes. If they can make the playoffs a few times or win a championship with Miller, the deal will have worked out well (as, Sullivan suggests, the Royals’ then-controversial trade for James Shields did). But Miller isn’t an ace, says Sullivan, and some of his impact will likely be muted by the loss of Inciarte in the outfield. And then there’s Swanson, who’s the kind of prospect who can be the main piece in a deal for an ace, and Blair. Arizona’s front office hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt that it can properly value its young players, Sullivan writes.
- The Diamondbacks don’t care that executives around the game think the Braves won the trade in a rout, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. (“Worst trade I’ve ever seen,” said one.) The trade helps the Diamondbacks become contenders, and with Miller joining a core that includes Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, they’re too good to become next year’s Padres — a team that swings for the fences but misses spectacularly.
- Swanson joins Adrian Gonzalez and Shawn Abner as the only first overall draft picks to be traded while still in the minors by the teams that drafted them, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo writes. (Gonzalez, the No. 1 pick in 2000, was one of three players the Marlins traded for Ugueth Urbina in 2003. The deal was a lopsided one on paper, but Urbina did help the Marlins win the World Series that year.) Swanson’s situation is unusual in that he could be traded at all — it’s been just six months since the Diamondbacks drafted him in the first place. Last December, the Padres agreed to trade Trea Turner to the Nationals as part of the Wil Myers deal, but due to a rule that draftees could not be traded until a year after they signed, he had to remain in the Padres organization until June. MLB changed that rule so that newly drafted players could be traded after the World Series, and Swanson is just the second player to be traded under those circumstances, following pitcher Logan Allen, who went from Boston to San Diego in the Craig Kimbrel deal.
The win now approach is nice but man the Diamondbacks fans must be upset.
They finally saw Towers who traded away youth for nothing go away and
now they’re stuck with another bozo in Stewart who does the exact same thing lol.
No tears being shed in Az! Gave up and excellent player in Inciarte , a # 1 who in most years would have been a #10 or lower and Blair who has never proven anything. Dbcks have Tomas, Brito and O’Brian waiting in the wind in the OF. For the Dbacks they Had to improve pitching and now have possibly two Aces, DeLa Rosa, Miller and R. Ray ……. Finally a Rotation and at least a 90 plus game winning season in place! Good job … LaRussa and Stewart!
I’m assuming they couldn’t get Jose Fernandez (who is cheaper and better) for this package. And also that they couldn’t get Sonny Gray or any other pitcher markedly better than Miller. They presumably can’t afford another $15m-$20m contract or else they could have signed Chen or Maeda, or else they have that money but have decided they need to allocate it for something else. So that means this was the only way to acquire a #2-#3 pitcher. If they feel that acquiring such a player will give them a markedly better chance to make the playoffs and win the World Series for each of the next three years (a thought which would appear to be valid) it is hard to pile on them as vigorously as everyone is.
The biggest question is whether Blair could have just provided what they are expecting from Miller, for cheaper and longer. But prospects don’t always pan out, so going for a much more sure thing which will gets them the amount of talent and proven results they feel they need to compete is hard to call out too much.
Jose Fernandez isn’t going to be traded any way sir.
You can’t have the asking price for a roy contender affect how you see other starters.
You’ve got to negotiate and be reasonable.
I think they could have gotten Hector Santiago for a much lower price and
Still could have gotten another back end starter for what they gave up.
With the report of the angels looking to move wilson/santiago/shoemaker, seems like the dbax could’ve gone in that direction without giving up so much. Halos probly throw in Santiago or shoe if you take rest of Wilson’s contract.
Teams were overvaluing Miller as an ace. He’s not. He’s a good No. 3 on a championship-caliber team. However, it’s important to remember that prospects are prospects, and they often never reach the big leagues. Still, this feels like an overpay.
Agree,prospects are prospects but they are more vakued now than ever before.You have to use that to your advantage.Time will tell on this trade,but at face value the Dbacks were destroyed in this trade.Hats off to the Braves.
Miller didn’t even crack the Cardinals rotation in the ’14 ps. Him and Corbin are big risks to count on as #2 and #3 pitchers on contenders especially given their lack of ps experience. I would’ve thought the DBacks would’ve rather made the necessary moved to clear up money for Chen or Leake then give up a guy who could’ve been the long waited solution at shortstop. I think they were a year premature with the Greinke signing and this trade. Had they waited a year, they could’ve known for sure how good Blair, Shipley, and Bradley would be at the big league level, and gotten a full year out of Corbin. I am a 100% sure this trade wouldn’t have happened at this time next year because Swanson will be big league ready for 2017 and the DBacks haven’t had a quality middle infielder since Orlando Hudson.
No pitchers of Grienke”s caliber will be available as free agents next year. The D Backs have a solid offense & defense. Just needed a couple of pitchers. They said a few months ago they would get one by signing a free agent and another by trade. Can’t trade junk to get a quality pitcher. Each player had others of similar quality in the organization or was blocked. Swanson was probably going to be moved to second due to Amed and Blair was one of 4 or 5 trying for the fifth spot in the rotation. Brito moves into the outfield spot nicely. Fact is the major league team is stronger after the law week. What are we looking for now? Back up catcher? While many teams are trying to put their rotation together. .
Braves have Christian Bethancourt that could be traded for Stryker Trahan and either Archie Bradley or Braden Shipley.
You’re probably looking for a farm system, because you just lost a large chunk of yours.
They did, but with such a young team it doesn’t matter as much. There is plenty of time to restock the farm.
People freaking out of trading high ranking prospects need to go back and look at the top 100 rankings from 5-10 years back. Sure there’s a handful who become quality major leaguers, but most never leave a mark on the league. DBacks get a guarantee who’s entering the prime of his career for a few crapshoots.
That doesn’t change the fact that prospects have value associated with them (and that’s not counting the already ML ready piece also included). The value they gave up is substantially higher than what they got in return, which is what the reporters & analysts have been pointing out consistently since the trade went down. They could’ve packaged the prospects they gave up for a better return. Or they could have given up much less to another team for a very similar return.
It was very clearly a significant overpay.
Based off of baseball writers opinions it’s an “overpay”. These same writers also said the Tigers overpaid with 6 top prospects for Miguel Cabrera, though its who ultimately ends up with better major leaguers as to how to judge the trade.
Indeed. Best major leaguer in the trade was Ender Inciarte, so the Dbacks lost.
Not really. It’s more about could they have gotten a similar package for a smaller amount given. And the consensus seems to be that they easily could have. That’s the overpay.
This isn’t a judge in 5 or 6 years kind of trade. It’s already clear they overpaid. Especially considering they didn’t just didn’t give up top prospects..
I’m ok with trading top prospects for players entering their prime with a few years left under control. Just thought they could do better than Miller. Maybe I’ll be wrong.
Miller had a fantastic season and it’s very possible that he’s going to show even more improvement in 2016.
I don’t know that they could have done better than Miller, but I do know they could have found something similar for a whole lot less.
The dynamics are changing. A few years ago, yes that package would have netted someone different. But with extensions becoming the norm and the free agent market becoming out of control, the economics are changing. Its all about control and future value.
Miller on the open market would probably end up in Smards territory or more with the current rate of inflation (especially amongst free agent SP). Braves win this trade because they gain 5 years alone from Inciarte. However, the Braves win on “potential” future value
As its stands, if Miller performs like the first half of last year (which shouldnt be impossible with actual run support) then current value speaking its a wash. However, if/when Swanson/Blair come up and they actually stick the scale begins to sink heavily in favor of the Braves. Never to level off again.
The future is here and 20th century baseball economics are no longer in play. Its all about team control over a player (years, $$$)
Problem is that the Dbacks traded their 1 and 2 top prospects….1 is a top 10 prospect in MLB and the other is a top 40. They also gave up a defensive stud would could play all 3 OF positions, hold his own at the plate, and steal 20 bags.
Go back 5-10 years….I went about in the middle and went with 2008. top 10 prospects include: Bruce, Rasmus, Longo, Buccholz, Joba, Kershaw, Price, McGee, Maybin, Andy LarRoche. A couple busts, A few all stars, and the rest have been solid players. Top 40 include players like: Cueto, Bailey, Votto, Ellsbury, Wieters, Gio, Wade Davis, Cargo, McCutchen, Moustakas….Go past the top 40 and you still have guys like Heyward, Headley, Latos, Bumgarner, Carlos Gomez, Fowler, Chris Davis, Carrasco, Scherzer,
The 3 players that AZ gave up to get Miller? Those 3 pieces were included in their offer for Fernandez……but instead of a Fernandez, they got a Miller.
I’m still baffled that Adrian Gonzalez got traded back in ’03 for a reliever. They traded their own 1st overall pick for 38 innings and 6 saves plus playoffs (granted he DID pitch really well and they DID win a WS). No wonder they fell off the map after that season.
Wasn’t Adrian not really that much of a hitter back then though? I thought I remember hearing something about him being very average at best when he was traded the first time.
Its hilarious that the Dbacks rejected Miller for pollock straight up, and then they gave us that huge haul with Swanson. #Braves
Not hilarious at all. It makes sense from an AZ perspective. The Dbacks window with Greinke and Goldschmidt in their prime is about three years. Swanson wasn’t going to help that much during those years. Pollock will.
I would understand this package for Jose Fernandez or David Price, but NOT Shelby Miller. He was shaky in the second half last year and now they’re sending him to a hitters ballpark.
The Diamondbacks must like these kind of deals because they clearly did not learn from the Trevor Cahill trade. They need to win a World Series to justify this deal.
Agreed
I don’t think a World Series win is what will make this a “good” trade for the Diamondbacks. You might be able to argue it if Miller is obviously the reason why they win the World Series.
As a Braves fan I LOVE this trade!! Pollock is very good, but I’m not sold on him after one great season. To me this trade is by far better then Pollock straight up. A gold glove caliber defender with plus speed. A ss that does not “have a weakness in his toolkit” as described by one scout. Then a SP who could make the team in 2016 and start showing benefits of this trade right away. This is the kind of move I wanted them to make for Miller. There is no need to try and compete in 2016. Go get the #1 draft pick in 2017 now!
Your dreaming….. Inciarte can’t hold Pollocks jock strap! Adam Eatin type of player…. But limited brains on the base paths and some out of control fielding fundamentals.
Shelby Miller is a #2 or #3 and the Diamondbacks just gave up a package for a #1. I hope my team does some trading with Arizona.
Man if this were fantasy baseball. The other owners would be pounding the “Veto” button so hard.