Cameron Maybin Rumors
Last year this time, Jed Hoyer was two weeks into his tenure as Padres GM. Now, he's attending the Orlando GM Meetings with a better sense of his club and a surplus of outfielders. He told MLBTR that he likes having outfield depth, but Cameron Maybin, Ryan Ludwick, Kyle Blanks, Will Venable, Scott Hairston, Chris Denorfia, Aaron Cunningham and Tony Gwynn won't all end up on next season's Opening Day roster and Hoyer did acknowledge that a trade is possible.
"Whenever you have surplus, if a team asks about a guy, you're always going to be willing to listen," Hoyer said.
The Padres like Venable in right and Maybin in center. Tony Gwynn's 2011 role has been unclear since the Marlins sent Maybin to San Diego. He is a non-tender candidate (like Ludwick, Hairston and Denorfia) but Hoyer says Gwynn could be covering even more ground than usual at Petco Park next year.
"He's a guy we can use in all three outfield spots and going forward that's probably how we think of him," Hoyer said.
The Maybin trade left the Padres short on relievers, but don't expect immediate additions to the San Diego 'pen. The Padres are likely to replace the recently-traded Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica with other relievers later in the winter. As expected, Hoyer says the Padres will do a lot of their "damage" late in the offseason.
2:54pm: The Padres have acquired Maybin from the Marlins, pending a physical, reports Tom Krasovic of Fanhouse (via Twitter).
2:09pm: Maybin will be traded and a deal with the Padres is getting close, a source tells Jeff Passan of Yahoo (via Twitter).
12:25am: The Marlins have also discussed Maybin with the Royals, according to Frisaro (Twitter link).
Maybin, still just 23, has yet to establish himself in the big leagues after coming over in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis trade in December 2007. He's a .246/.313/.380 career hitter in 610 plate appearances, mostly with the Marlins. UZR loves his defense in center, rating him at +5.1 at the position for his career.
Maybin is out of options, so he will need to clear waivers to go to the minors starting next season. He does have four years of team control remaining, however. Florida traded Andrew Miller, the other key piece they received in the Cabrera-Willis deal, to the Red Sox yesterday.
Links for Thursday night, as interleague play keeps Dan Haren's 1.000 OPS out of Arizona's lineup....
- Following tonight's game, the Marlins optioned Cameron Maybin to the minors, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted yesterday, the team might avoid having Maybin become a super two player after 2011 if they keep him in the minors for a few weeks.
- Not many draft signings to pass on today, but the Blue Jays announced that they've signed their 16th-round pick, Canadian Dalton Pompey. Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun says (via Twitter) that Pompey gets a $140K bonus.
- While the Orioles have yet to discuss such a plan, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains why he thinks the club could hire a manager and not immediately put him in the dugout.
- Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News believes the Rangers are the frontrunners for Roy Oswalt if the sale of the team moves forward by early July.
- In a Q&A with MLB.com's Bill Ladson, Nationals manager Jim Riggleman says Roger Bernadina's performance is convincing the team they don't need to acquire a right fielder.
- Cody Ross tells Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post that he hopes the Marlins become buyers rather than sellers: "We want to get somebody to help us rather than see some of us gone."
- Pirates president Frank Coonelly met with reporters today and addressed Akinori Iwamura's DFA, Pedro Alvarez's promotion, and the team's recent trades. MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch has the details.
Mike Stanton's getting all the attention and at least Cody Ross and Chris Coghlan are getting playing time. Cameron Maybin's getting benched, but Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest told Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald that Maybin is a "big time" part of the team's future.
"I'm not sure that's going to happen right now," Beinfest said. "But definitely in the future [Maybin figures in]."
Now, Maybin is struggling. He has a .225/.290/.341 line in 201 plate appearances this year, with five homers. Maybin, who was considered a top-ten prospect by Baseball America leading up to 2007, 2008 and 2009, has the potential to do considerably more on offense. To his credit, his defense has been above-average in about 1000 major league innings.
Beinfest told Navarro that he doesn't believe Maybin deserves a demotion to the minors. Maybin is on track to be a borderline super two candidate after 2011, so the cost-conscious Marlins could prevent him from obtaining super two status by demoting him for a few weeks now.
It seems like Maybin has been in the majors for ages, but like the man he was traded for (Miguel Cabrera) he reached the majors at an extremely young age. Maybin, 23, is younger than prospects like Desmond Jennings and Pedro Alvarez, so he has plenty of time to realize his potential and it's no surprise that Beinfest expects that to happen in a Marlins uniform.
While dreams are coming true for hundreds of high school and college players this week, let's compare the paths of some 2005 first round draft picks. Nothing is more interesting than seeing how teams did choosing players at the same position. In a draft, it is the closest teams come to the thrill of victory, the agony of defeat. Meanwhile, those lists haunt fans' memories for years to come.
- Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) vs. Ryan Braun (Brewers): This battle between Zimmerman, picked fourth, and Braun, picked fifth, was to be a test of hot corner prowess. But while Zimmerman has excelled at the position, winning a Gold Glove in 2009 and grading well under more advanced defensive metrics, Braun settled in left field after proving to be a disastrous fielder at third base. So far, Braun has a .931 to .836 edge in OPS, but with Zimmerman putting up an .888 in 2009 and at .986 so far in 2010, that gap may well have disappeared. Moving forward, the edge goes to Zimmerman, a terrific hitter, though a notch below Braun, but a far more valuable defensive player. Both teams won here, though.
- Cameron Maybin (Tigers) vs. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): These high school center fielders went back-to-back, with Maybin going tenth and McCutchen going 11th. The early returns suggest that the Tigers made a poor choice here, though they ultimately packaged Maybin in a deal for Miguel Cabrera, so they're not exactly complaining. McCutchen has hit since he arrived in Pittsburgh last season, and a 23-year-old with an .847 OPS in his first 733 major league plate appearances stands an awfully good chance of being an elite player for years to come. Maybin is still immensely talented, and could turn into a star- but McCutchen already is one. Pirates win- how often do you get to read that?
- Craig Hansen (Red Sox) vs. Joey Devine (Braves): This throwdown is a lesson in the perils of college pitchers. They seem like sure things, compared to high schoolers, and from the start, the Red Sox and Braves thought they had their ninth-innings mapped out for years to come. Hansen, drafted 26th out of St. John's, has yet to find command at the major league level, with 63 walks against 70 strikeouts in 93.2 innings. The right-hander was one of the moving parts in the three-team deal that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles. Hansen's troubles were baffling, until the discovery of a degenerative nerve condition that has his career in doubt. Devine, chosen 27th, got traded to Oakland for Mark Kotsay, so Atlanta didn't benefit much from choosing him, either. The Athletics got a fantastic 2008 out of Devine- a 0.59 ERA in 45.2 innings with 49 strikeouts. Tommy John surgery kept him out for 2009, but he is currently on track to return to Oakland by the end of June. Winner here? Clearly, the Athletics.
Some links as the first week of baseball comes to a close...
- Stephen Strasburg, who struck out eight over five innings of work in his pro debut today, will be limited to about 100 innings this year, according to MLB.com's Peter Gammons (via Twitter). Gammons says Scott Boras negotiated that condition into the righty's deal with the Nationals last summer. However, Nationals farm director Doug Harris told MASN.com's Ben Goessling that a 100 inning cap for Strasburg "doesn't hold water" (Twitter link). Harris says 150-160 innings would be reasonable for Strasburg (Twitter link).
- MLB.com's Jason Beck explains that Carlos Guillen nearly became an Indian six years ago.
- Tom D'Angelo of the Palm Beach Post wonders how long the Marlins will let Cameron Maybin struggle before calling on top prospect Mike Stanton.
- Buster Posey had a huge opening week in Triple A, so Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News wonders (via Twitter) how long the Giants can keep him in the minors. The timing of Posey's call up matters a great deal to the Giants, as I explained here.
Links for Wednesday...
- Due to Bengie Molina's injury, the Giants have changed their mind and called up top prospect Buster Posey according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. So Posey's clock starts earlier than planned.
- Speaking of service time, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith tells me Cameron Maybin's call-up gives him 129 days of service time after this year. That puts him on the fringe of Super Two status after the 2011 season.
- ESPN's Jerry Crasnick ranks the impact of trades made by contenders in July. He talked to an exec who thinks Matt Holliday "could make an extra $3MM a year as a free agent this winter because of his strong finish."
- Yahoo's Gordon Edes has his trade deadline winners and losers.
- Ryan Doumit's agent Matt Sosnick shot down recent negativity surrounding his client, while Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette gets to the bottom of the catcher's recent benching.
- Brad Penny still hates the Dodgers, a team he'll face twice this month according to Baggarly. Baggarly also has a quote from Penny ripping on the Marlins.
- Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has more from Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy, who knows he gained trade value when the team delayed his free agency.
- J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics wonders whether the Braves should pick up Tim Hudson's $12MM option for 2010. Hudson has the right to void that option, not that he would. Back in January Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said the Braves "fully intend to exercise it, barring some unexpected turn of events."
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs notes that Kendry Morales has matched the production of the Angels' former first baseman, $180MM man Mark Teixeira.
- Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has comments from Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes on the team's Jon Rauch-Kevin Mulvey swap. Piecoro says the D'Backs have about $23MM to work with this winter as they presumably look to add pitching.
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times guesses Ken Griffey Jr. will retire after this season.
Certain players come closer to Super Two status with every day they spend in the majors. The more service time they get, the closer they come to securing a fourth year of arbitration and a bigger payday. Cameron Maybin and Travis Snider could set themselves up for Super Two status if they spend enough time in the major leagues before the end of the season. We can assume that the Marlins and Blue Jays are watching the calendar as they decide if and when to call on their respective outfield prospects.
Maybin has a career-low strikeout rate and a lofty .328/.415/.471 line at Triple A. He needs 35 more days of service time this year to have a good chance at Super Two status after 2011. If the Marlins call him up before September, there's a real possibility they'll have to go to arbitration with Maybin four times, which could cost the organization millions.
Unlike the Marlins, the Blue Jays aren't in a pennant race. They can keep the PCL player of the week in Triple A if it's best for the organization's future, since there's no need to win now. Snider, who's hitting .293/.400/.602 at Triple A, needs about 50 more days of service time this year to have a good chance at Super Two status after 2011. If the Blue Jays call him up much before August 20th, they risk letting Snider go to arbitration an extra time.
2:38pm: Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports report that the Marlins are no longer pursuing Bell or Nick Johnson. That should leave the Angels or Dodgers if anyone.
2:11pm: ESPN's Buster Olney says the Twins have interest in Bell, as well as Oakland's Michael Wuertz.
1:18pm: Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times says the Angels and Dodgers are battling for Bell.
9:19am: Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel says the Padres wanted Cameron Maybin and Miller for Bell. The Fish have seen other trade ideas dry up as well, leading Rodriguez to suggest "it might be Nick Johnson or bust for the Marlins." SI's Jon Heyman agrees.
7:02am: The latest on Padres closer Heath Bell, who is under team control through 2011...
Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune says that "late Thursday night, both the Angels and Marlins were still talking to the Padres regarding Bell." We learned yesterday that the Padres requested Andrew Miller or Sean West from the Marlins, and Florida declined. Marlins president David Samson appeared on the radio yesterday to discuss the trade deadline, and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald has a nice summary of that.
11:19pm: Olney reports that the Padres and Red Sox had made very little progress in their discussions about Adrian Gonzalez as of 9pm CST.
4:19pm: In regard to the Qualls item below, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick has an update. His source says the D'Backs are "very unlikely" to trade their closer.
11:58am: All kinds of good stuff from ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider required and recommended).
- The big news: the Red Sox and Padres talked "at length" about an Adrian Gonzalez trade Wednesday night. Those discussions are expected to resume today; of course you can expect top prospects to be involved.
- On the D'Backs front, there has been interest in Doug Davis and Jon Garland. Jeff Wilson of the Dallas Morning News says the Rangers have spoken to the D'Backs about a deal for starting pitching, but would probably have to unload salary (Hank Blalock?) first. A D'Backs scout took a look at Rangers reliever Guillermo Moscoso. However, Arizona is actually considering whether to extend Davis. Might make sense, with Brandon Webb going under the knife.
- Olney says there's momentum building toward a Chad Qualls trade, but the closer won't come cheap. Chad Tracy would be a fourth available D'Back, but Bob McManaman and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic feel that August trades are more likely for the club.
- The Royals would like to move the contract of southpaw reliever Ron Mahay (.274/.292/.468 against lefties). He's got about $1.5MM left.
- ESPN's Jayson Stark tosses in this nugget: the Marlins made a run at Roy Halladay but balked at an asking price that included Cameron Maybin and Mike Stanton.