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NL Central Notes: Wandy, Tabata, McCutchen

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The latest from around the NL Central…

Why Your Team Won’t Sign Prince Fielder

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Scott Boras isn't likely to send client Prince Fielder to play for the St. Paul Saints next year; obviously he'll wind up with one of baseball's 30 teams.  Still, there are good reasons for every single team not to give Fielder the megadeal he's expected to seek.

  • Orioles: The Orioles could probably fit in Prince's salary without raising payroll, but would a new GM jump in with a $100MM+ commitment for a team that isn't expected to compete in 2012?  Is there any way they'd win the bidding on a top Boras client?  Fielder is not a good long-term signing for the Orioles, who may prefer to give Chris Davis a full season at first base if he continues to avoid labrum surgery.  All that said, they will probably at least be in the mix.
  • Red Sox: This could only work if Fielder replaces David Ortiz as the team's full-time DH, given the presence of Adrian Gonzalez at first.  The Sox clearly have bigger concerns and are highly unlikely to make Fielder the game's first $100MM DH.
  • Yankees: To open up first base, the Yanks would have to trade Mark Teixeira despite his full no-trade clause.  Fielder is not clearly better, so don't expect that manuever.  While DH is technically possible, it's wise to leave that spot open for Alex Rodriguez, who is under contract through 2017.  Plus, starting pitching will be a more immediate concern than offense.
  • Rays: Something tells me they won't have Fielder taking up half their payroll.
  • Blue Jays: I expect the first base and DH spots to be filled by Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion again; they'd earn a total of $8.5MM next year.  However, Lind has been disappointing and the Blue Jays could certainly afford Fielder, if you'd like to dream on it.
  • White Sox: Paul Konerko is locked in through 2013; Adam Dunn through 2014.  In theory Dunn could be dumped, but not for the purpose of Kenny Williams oddly cozying up to Boras for a massive Fielder contract.
  • Indians: They don't have the payroll space for it, nor does signing Fielder fit with their long-term plan.
  • Tigers: Miguel Cabrera will occupy first base through 2015, while DH Victor Martinez is signed through 2014.
  • Royals: Their future is with Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler.
  • Twins: They have to be worried about Justin Morneau and could have an open DH spot this offseason.  Technically the Twins could afford Fielder without raising payroll, but they have needs all over the place and this would not be their style.
  • Angels: Though he missed all of 2011, Boras client Kendrys Morales should be in the first base mix next year, as well as Mark Trumbo.  Bobby Abreu is under contract for '12 as the DH.  While the Angels could afford Fielder, it is tough to see Arte Moreno winning that bid.  A pursuit of Aramis Ramirez to play third base is more reasonable.
  • Athletics: I imagine they'd like to see Brandon Allen and Daric Barton compete for first base next year, with a cheap free agent DH signing.  Fielder would be hard to fit into the payroll, and the team's outfield uncertainty will likely be a big focus.
  • Mariners: The Ms would probably like to see Justin Smoak and Mike Carp in their regular lineup.  I think they could afford Fielder, but I can't see them making that DH investment.
  • Rangers: Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli, and Michael Young will all be back next year unless someone is traded.  With a big arbitration class, the Rangers would need to raise payroll just to re-sign C.J. Wilson or sign a comparable starter, so I don't think Fielder fits in financially either.
  • Braves: They're surely content with Rookie of the Year contender Freddie Freeman.
  • Marlins: Gaby Sanchez has this spot locked down on the cheap.
  • Mets: Even with a payroll reduction the Mets should have some money to burn, but not Fielder money while embroiled in a huge lawsuit.  Ike Davis' status is uncertain, but that's not going to push the Mets to Fielder.
  • Phillies: Ryan Howard is signed through 2016.
  • Nationals: An $8MM Adam LaRoche is not a huge roadblock to Fielder, and Boras will certainly try to get the Nationals involved.  While Mike Morse could move to left field, a big extension for Ryan Zimmerman could be preferable to Washington.
  • Cubs: Boras needs to get the Cubs involved in the Fielder bidding.  While the Cubs could afford him, their needs for starting pitching and perhaps a third baseman should be equally pressing. The team's new GM will have alternatives in Carlos Pena, Michael Cuddyer, and Albert Pujols.
  • Reds: They've got Joey Votto through 2013, plus a lack of payroll space if Brandon Phillips is retained.
  • Astros: Brett Wallace and Carlos Lee have their flaws, and Jonathan Singleton is a ways off, but it'd be a radical departure for the Astros to go after Fielder.
  • Brewers: Last year, Fielder reportedly turned down an offer from the Brewers that was similar to Howard's five-year, $125MM deal.  Since then the Brewers locked up Ryan Braun through 2020, so they might not be able to make that offer again even if Prince is interested.
  • Pirates: The Pirates could sign Fielder and still have one of the game's smallest payrolls.  I don't think GM Neal Huntington has committed even $20MM total to a player in his tenure, and it'd cost that much for one year of Fielder.  It just doesn't seem like his style, but if ownership decides that the team is close they do technically have the need and payroll space.  
  • Cardinals: It's difficult to see Fielder as anything more than a long shot Plan C for the Cards.  If Pujols signs elsewhere while Fielder is still on the market, and the idea of re-signing Lance Berkman to play first base doesn't pan out either, I guess the Cardinals could look into Fielder.
  • Diamondbacks: I think they could afford him, but they have Paul Goldschmidt as their future.
  • Rockies: They don't have the money for it, and Todd Helton is under contract through 2013.
  • Dodgers: They'll have an opening, but payroll flexibility is the question.  Attendance and payroll will be down, and without a new owner in place by year's end the Dodgers won't be able to bid for Fielder.
  • Padres: Anthony Rizzo struggled as a rookie, but Jed Hoyer isn't jumping into the Fielder bidding.
  • Giants: Aubrey Huff is only under contract through 2012, but signing Fielder would make Brandon Belt a permanent outfielder.  Maybe that could work, but payroll flexibility will be very limited.  The focus may be on signing Tim Lincecum and finding a shortstop and an outfielder or two.

Cubs Rumors: Zambrano, Aramis, GM Search

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Before the Cubs can moving on their offseason, they face big decisions in their next GM, what to do with Carlos Zambrano, and how to handle Aramis Ramirez's $16MM club option.  The latest on each situation:

  • Cubs owner Tom Ricketts told ESPN's Dan Shulman last night that he found it hard to imagine Zambrano would ever pitch for the Cubs again.  Buster Olney points out that the Cubs would have to reinstate or move Zambrano before the end of the season, should the pitcher win his grievance.  On Tuesday, I presented 11 scenarios the Cubs could consider in their attempts to move Zambrano.  
  • Ramirez would have been "pretty much a slam dunk" to return to the Cubs next year under Jim Hendry, his agent Paul Kinzer tells Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  But now, Ramirez plans to step back, see who the Cubs hire, and also see what's out there on the free agent market.  With his resurgent season, Ramirez may be the only viable free agent starting third baseman, and would be hard for the Cubs to replace.
  • The Cubs have reached out to front office member Greg Maddux about remaining in the organization, reports Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.  Maddux is close to Hendry.  As for the team's GM post, Sullivan writes, "The names of Josh Byrnes, Andrew Friedman and even Theo Epstein have also come up in conversation. While the Red Sox are unlikely to let Epstein out of his contract with a year remaining, the Cubs seem interested enough to explore the possibility."
  • Hendry, who Sullivan speculates could land in Arizona working under Kevin Towers, is off the hook for the Alfonso Soriano signing in the opinion of Wittenmyer.  Wittenmyer says then-president John McDonough drove that disastrous contract.
  • Ricketts said on Friday that he seeks a GM with a commitment to player development, a stronger analytical background, and a track record of success.  I expect him to look into big-name current GMs like Epstein, Friedman, and Jon Daniels first.  Those guys will probably stay put, at which point I can see Ben Cherington, Thad Levine, and Jerry Dipoto being candidates.  Click here to see our top 20 GM candidates, among those who have not yet held that position permanently.
  • ESPN's Jon Greenberg is "convinced the Cubs will be run by a forward-thinking general manager with a strong emphasis on advanced statistics, and reliance on cheap, farm system labor."  I think the stats thing is a big factor – teams tend to go in the opposite direction from the previous guy.
  • Talking to Wittenmyer, Cubs interim GM Randy Bush said he could see a lot of the team's front office members keep their jobs.

GM Candidate: Jerry Dipoto

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MLBTR's list of general manager candidates introduced 20 people who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’re bringing you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces. Today the series continues with Diamondbacks executive Jerry Dipoto, who ranked first on our list. 

By May of 2000, right-handed reliever Jerry Dipoto had appeared in 378 big league games for the Indians, Mets, and Rockies, saving 49 along the way.  Faced with a lengthy DL stay for a neck injury, the Rockies invited the 31-year-old to take part in a unique experience: exposure to the inner workings of the front office.  Though he had not yet retired, Dipoto's education beyond the mound began, as Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd let him into the draft room to be a fly on the wall and many of the organization's future star executives showed him the ropes.  When retirement officially came about in 2001, O'Dowd invited Dipoto to officially "step across the aisle and help the Rockies build a champion."  

Dipoto assumed a jack-of-all-trades role for Colorado, taking in everything from baseball operations and trade discussions to postgame commentary on television.  After a few years his education continued with the Red Sox, as he followed Josh Byrnes to Boston and was a member of the front office for the '04 World Champion team.  Dipoto went back to the Rockies in '05 as their director of player personnel, and then settled in with the Diamondbacks in '06.

Dipoto initially served as Arizona's vice president of player personnel, overseeing all aspects of the club's scouting and player development.  During his tenure, he's had interviews for GM openings with the Mariners and Nationals.  When the D'Backs let Byrnes go last summer, they made Dipoto interim GM, and he authored multiple crucial trades.  Dipoto interviewed for the full-time job, but the D'Backs hired Kevin Towers after the season, with Dipoto staying on as the senior vice president of scouting and player development.  Dipoto, a self-described "talker," chatted with me on the phone Friday evening. 

On his experience with the Red Sox:

It's a great franchise with a storied history and they had a new, young, cutting edge general manager who was building a group around him that was very eclectic.  There were longer-in-the tooth, experienced baseball people with decades of experience to younger up-and-comers that I knew personally.  It was cool to be in at the ground floor of a system they were creating from scratch.

On his education of the statistical side of the game:

As the Bill James literature became more mainstream you had somebody you could read along with and understand. I wouldn't qualify myself as a saber-junkie but I would say that from the early stages you start to understand trends. There are things you notice when you're a 12-year-old kid that you can break down in more specifics when you're a 40-year-old man. 

I've always been hungry for information and have an understanding of the analytics and have a personal feeling on how to apply them on a case-to-case basis.  There are times when the blend starts to favor one side or the other [stats or scouting].  If you try to apply one formula or stick with one natural inclination I think you'll make a lot of mistakes.

On the constant thirst for baseball knowledge:

The day I feel like I've stopped learning about baseball is the day I should go home. Every single day you're going to learn something new and start to adjust your lines of thinking.  It's an ongoing education.  Every person I meet in the game, my first instinct is to learn something from them.  My mentor is the game.

On his experience as the Diamondbacks' interim GM:

It's experience you really can't buy.  Until you're into the fire you really don't know, like pitching the ninth inning of the World Series.  It was a very unique time for the organization.  As a group we made a lot of really effective moves that positively changed the future of the team.  Ken Kendrick said to me, "You are in charge now.  These are your decisions to make."  I appreciated their trust.  At the end of the day I am very happy with what we were able to do.

On his proudest moments in player acquisitions…

I'm very proud of this draft.  Trevor Bauer, Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, Anthony Meo, Kyle Winkler in the tenth round.  I'm also proud of the 2009 draft, the way we went about picking off offensive performers and restocking a system that had been picked apart a little bit by graduations and recent trades.

The trades last summer, in particular the Dan Haren deal with the Angels and the Edwin Jackson deal with the White Sox, largely because it was essentially the first time I was operating and had done that with no net.  The industry's reaction to the Dan Haren trade in the hours and weeks surrounding it, there might be a little bit different opinion of it today, which is I think the essence of scouting.  I'm extremely proud of the Edwin Jackson deal, not only because Daniel Hudson's been terrific for us since they we acquired him, but because the guy on the back end of that deal, David Holmberg, is actually a good prospect himself.  

Take the total haul from those two deals and it's a pretty high volume of pitching.  And it helped us get our finances situated so that we could handle this draft and build a team within our payroll confines.  I'll probably always look back on it, whether I have an opportunity to be a full-time GM or not, as one of more exhilarating moments I've had in the game.  If I do get a chance to be a full-time GM and do another hundred deals, I'm not quite sure any of them will bear the weight that those deals did in that moment in time.

On his career goals and whether he's aiming to become a GM:

I wouldn't tell you that I don't have the desire to be a GM.  As a general rule I've always believed the game will tell me how far I will go.  My current role is awfully hard to complain about.  If a GM job becomes available it's be an honor to be considered, but I have no expectation of it nor do I feel like my career is a failure if I don't get it.

Initial Reactions To Jered Weaver’s Extension

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The unexpected news of Jered Weaver's five-year extension with the Angels elicited a wide range of responses Sunday night. Here are some of the early takes from reporters and pundits:

  • The extension is a win for the Angels, tweets Scott Miller of CBSSports.com, as Weaver would have been in line for a big pay day after 2012.
  • Likewise, Bob Nightengale of USA Today thinks the extension is a "great deal" for the Angels (via Twitter).
  • It's not a steal for the Angels, according to Keith Law of ESPN.com (via Twitter), but he likes the deal for the team.
  • Weaver "took control" in his decision to remain in Anaheim long-term, tweets Lyle Spencer of MLB.com.
  • Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLBTR reminds us that while the contract appears favorable for the Halos, Weaver was still 14 months away from free agency (via Twitter).
  • Weaver could have commanded a nine-figure deal as a free agent, opines Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Twitter link). Olney commends Weaver for spurning the usual tack of Scott Boras clients, which is to go to free agency (via Twitter).
  • The no-trade clause in Weaver's deal is a "good get" by Scott Boras, tweets Troy Renck of the Denver Post, who notes that teams typically try to avoid them.
  • Weaver's deal sets a ceiling for free-agent-to-be C.J. Wilson, according to Evan P. Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).
  • Weaver's extension sets a floor for Cole Hamels' contract talks, tweets Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Hamels is a free agent after 2012.
  • Ubaldo Jimenez was seeking a similar deal with the Rockies before being traded to the Indians, according to Renck (Twitter link).

Angels Extend Jered Weaver

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The Angels have signed ace Jered Weaver to a five-year, $85MM contract extension, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (via Twitter). The deal includes a full no-trade clause, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports (via Twitter), and various "significant" bonuses for winning the Cy Young and MVP awards and for earning All-Star berths, writes Scott Miller of CBSSports.com.

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Weaver, a Boras Corporation client, as MLBTR's Agency Database shows, was slated to hit free agency after 2012, so this extension buys out his final year of arbitration eligibility and four years of free agency at an average annual salary of $17.5MM. He earns $7.37MM in 2011 after losing an arbitration hearing with the Halos prior to this season. Tim Dierkes explained in May that Weaver could have earned as much as $15MM in 2012 after another round of arbitration.

Weaver's deal is similar in terms to the ones Felix Hernandez signed with the Mariners (five years, $78MM) and Justin Verlander (five years, $80MM) inked with the Tigers prior to the 2010 season, as noted by Heyman (Twitter). The difference, though, is that both Hernandez and Verlander had two remaining years of arbitration eligibility when they signed, whereas Weaver is nearer to free agency with only one remaining. The contract is the largest for a pitcher in Angels history, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter).

As Jeff Passan of Yahoo! notes, the projected class of free-agent starters in 2013 is deep, headlined by Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Matt Cain, Shaun Marcum, John Danks, Anibal Sanchez and Francisco Liriano (Twitter link). So, perhaps Weaver and his representatives were motivated to get a jump on that market, as Boras Corporation clients typically go to free agency. Buster Olney of ESPN.com thinks Weaver could have fetched a nine-figure contract on the open market after 2012 (Twitter link).

The 28-year-old right-hander, the No. 12 overall pick in the 2004 draft, is in the midst of a career year, posting a 2.10 ERA (178 ERA+), 7.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. He is among the favorites to win the American League Cy Young Award, along with Verlander and CC Sabathia of the Yankees.

The deal will be announced by the club on Tuesday.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

MLBTR Originals: 8/14/11 – 8/20/11

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A look back at the original pieces we published here at MLBTR last week …

Week In Review: 8/14/11 – 8/20/11

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A look back at the week that was here at MLBTR …

Brewers Designate Felipe Lopez For Assignment

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MLB.com's Adam McCalvy tweets that the Brewers have designated veteran infielder Felipe Lopez for assignment in order to clear roster space for Chris Narveson, who will be activated from the disabled list.

Lopez hit .216/.248/.320 in 102 plate appearances for the Rays before they designated him for assigment earlier this year. He didn't fare any better in a Brewers uniform, batting .182/.245/.182 in 51 trips to the plate. This was Lopez's second stint with the Brewers, but his results couldn't have been any different. In 2009 he batted .320/.407/.448  in 66 games for the Brew Crew when they acquired in July of that year.

Pirates Sign Aaron Heilman

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Aaron Heilman's free agency stint didn't last long. After being released by the Phillies yesterday, the veteran right-hander inked a minor league deal with the Pirates, according to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch (on Twitter). He will report to the club's Triple-A affiliate in Indianapolis.

Heilman struggled mightily as a member of the Diamondbacks' bullpen this year, pitching to a 6.88 ERA through 35 1/3 innings. His brief time with the Phillies didn't go any better, as he posted an 8.38 ERA through 9 2/3 innings for their Triple-A affiliate.

Heilman maintaned solid strikeout numbers (8.4 K/9) in Arizona, and was predominantly plagued by a fluky HR/FB rate of 20%. League average is around 10%, roughly Heilman's career mark entering 2010. He can still miss enough bats to contribute in the future if he can get back to keeping the ball in the park.

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