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Breslow: Red Sox Will Be “Aggressive” In Search For Rotation Upgrades

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New Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has a tall task ahead of him, trying to bring a fifth-place club back into contention in a stacked AL East. Perhaps the hardest part of his job will be improving a starting rotation that finished with a bottom-ten ERA and FanGraphs WAR last season. Indeed, while the Red Sox have starting pitching depth, their rotation has too many question marks and not enough top-end talent.

Chris Sale is a lock for the 2024 rotation. So is 24-year-old Brayan Bello, who pitched to a 4.24 ERA in 28 starts last year. After that, the Red Sox have four more experienced arms who will stretch out to start this winter but could move into a bullpen role at any time: Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock. All four have made at least ten starts and at least ten relief appearances over the past two years. With a rotation led by an aging, oft-injured veteran followed by a still-developing young starter and four guys who have bounced in and out of bullpen roles the past years, it’s clear the Red Sox could use a lot more stability and at least one front-line pitcher.

It’s not surprising to hear Breslow call rotation upgrades his top priority as the Red Sox navigate the offseason (links via Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive.com). Breslow expressed optimism about Sale’s health, at least publicly voicing confidence that the lefty could hold up over a full, healthy season in 2024. Of course, that’s quite a charitable outlook for a pitcher who’s totaled just 151 innings over the past four seasons.

Granted, 102 2/3 of those frames came in 2023, when Sale worked to a respectable 4.30 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates of 29.4% and 6.8%, respectively. But Sale still missed two months last summer with a shoulder injury, and in the three seasons prior he underwent Tommy John surgery, suffered a stress fracture in his ribcage, broke his wrist in bicycling accident and sustained a broken a pinkie finger on his pitching hand upon being struck by a comeback liner. The Sox don’t have much choice but to hope Sale is healthy this year — he’s entering the final season of his five-year, $145MM contract — but recent history is not on their side, regardless of whatever optimism the team’s brass wants to forecast.

Even if the Sox were able to somehow manifest a 32-start season from Sale, there’d be need to further solidify the group. For his part, Breslow pledged to be “as aggressive as we possibly can” to fill the rotation (link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic), be it via free agency or trade. Boston has already been linked to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery and Seth Lugo in free agency. McCaffrey indicates that the Sox had an initial Zoom meeting with Yamamoto’s camp (as has been standard for interested teams thus far) but adds that a team official declined to state whether the Red Sox were in position for a forthcoming in-person sitdown with the NPB ace.

Breslow’s pledge to be as aggressive as possible is sensible for a team with a projected payroll ($172MM, per Roster Resource) that’s more than $10MM shy of their end-of-season levels and a whopping $64MM short of their franchise-record Opening Day mark of $236MM. That said, it’s also somewhat at odds with prior reporting on Boston’s rotation search. McAdam reported last month that the Sox have a preference for the trade market before free agency, notably specifying that at that point, they had not yet been active in the market for Dylan Cease.

The previously mentioned piece from McCaffrey quotes Breslow in acknowledging that the Sox will have to “be willing to give up position player capital” in order to bolster the starting staff, though McCaffrey notes that the Sox aren’t likely to trade top-end prospects for pitchers with only one year of club control remaining. That’ll make names like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and division foe Tyler Glasnow particularly difficult to obtain. And just yesterday, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that Boston prefers to avoid free agents who’ve rejected a qualifying offer.

There’s room to be aggressive within a fairly measured set of free-agent and trade targets, but whether avoiding qualified free agents and one-year rentals is truly acting “as aggressive as we possibly can” is up for debate, at the very least. It’s understandable that Breslow, particularly in his first season on the job, might not want to recklessly spend and saddle the club with a long-term contract or deplete the farm system he’s still learning, but imposing those limitations on his front office only makes the goal of bettering the starting staff in a meaningful way all the more daunting.

Of course, the goal in the long term is to better the organization’s ability to develop its own pitchers. To that end, the Red Sox announced yesterday that they’ve hired Twins minor league pitching coordinator Justin Willard as their new director of pitching.

“We’re really excited to bring him on board,” Breslow said (relayed by Cotillo). “Someone that comes with a pretty strong track record of pitching development. We’ve been mindful of what Minnesota’s done over the last few years in the development of some of their guys. We feel really lucky, really fortunate.”

The Twins have had some success stories with late-round starters, as both Bailey Ober and Louie Varland have reached the Majors and held their own (a good bit more than that in the case of Ober, a 12th-rounder). The Twins’ bullpen has seen multiple names emerge from within the system as well, headlined by closer Jhoan Duran and setup man Griffin Jax.

Willard will join newly hired pitching coach Andrew Bailey in working with Breslow and the rest of the Boston baseball ops and player development staff to hopefully optimize the Sox’ pitching development systems. While each of Bello, Houck and Crawford has had some big league success, they’re all still relatively inexperienced. The Red Sox have regularly relied on free agency and the trade market to round out the pitching staff over the past decade, but they’ve struggled to supplement those high-profile additions (e.g. Sale, Rick Porcello, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi) with cost-effective arms produced by their own system.

East Notes: Red Sox, Mets, Taylor, Arozarena

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The Red Sox are known to be interested in adding to the front of their rotation this winter, though Alex Speier of the Boston Globe suggests that desire could come with a major caveat. Speier relays that the club prefers to avoid signing a player attached to a Qualifying Offer. President of baseball operations Craig Breslow neither confirmed nor denied that preference when asked about it by reporters, acknowledging that while there are instances where a player being attached to draft pick compensation “shouldn’t be an impediment or deterrent,” there are also other situations where a QO could be an obstacle.

Of course, such a preference wouldn’t completely shut the door on a top-of-the-market arm for the Red Sox. Left-hander Jordan Montgomery isn’t attached to draft pick compensation after being dealt from the Cardinals to the Rangers midseason, while posted NPB stars Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga are both free of a qualifying offer as well. With both Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola already having signed long-term deals this offseason, a preference to avoid signing qualified free agents for their rotation would really only take Boston out of the running for left-hander Blake Snell, who rejected a QO from the Padres earlier this offseason. While the Red Sox have also reportedly been connected to two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason, previous reporting indicates that the club is no longer pursuing the offseason’s top free agent.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • On the heels of a report earlier today that the Mariners are among the teams interested in Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes this offseason, Jon Morosi of MLB Network indicates that outfielder Randy Arozarena is also believed to have come up in discussions between the two clubs. There’s no indication that a deal between the sides is particularly close, as is the case with Paredes. That said, it’s noteworthy that the sides have discussed a deal around Arozarena, who Morosi described as “available” in trade. Earlier this week, reporting indicated that while teams have inquired after Arozarena, the Rays weren’t shopping the outfielder. Arozarena, 28, would be a particularly good fit for a Mariners club that lacks a surefire starting outfielder to pair with Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic. The 28-year-old slashed a strong .254/.364/.425 with 23 home runs and 22 stolen bases for the Rays this year en route to his first career All Star appearance.
  • The Mets appear focused on improving their run prevention as they enter the winter meetings, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon notes that in addition to pitching additions, the club is hoping to improve their outfield defense this winter. KBO star Jung Hoo Lee is one player the club has interest in who could do just that, and Sammon suggests that free agent center fielder Michael A. Taylor could be another fit, though the 32-year-old is garnering plenty of interest around the league, per Sammon. Taylor had the strongest offensive season of his career since 2017 with the Twins in 2023, slashing .220/.278/.442 (96 wRC+) while clubbing a career-best 21 home runs in just 388 trips to the plate this year. Sammon goes on to suggest that adding a player who could contribute in center field is the easiest way for the club to improve its defense, as it would allow Brandon Nimmo to slide over to left field more often.

Rangers, Mets, Red Sox Reportedly Shift Focus Away From Pursuit Of Shohei Ohtani

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Rumors about the state of Shohei Ohtani’s market in free agency have been decidedly and deliberately scarce. Ohtani is said to prefer things to be kept quiet and close to the vest, and teams involved in the bidding surely don’t want to jeopardize their chances by being too forthcoming in terms of leaking information to the media. ESPN’s Jeff Passan pulls back the curtain a bit this morning, however, writing that at least three teams — the Rangers, Mets and Red Sox — have turned their attention to other players at this stage of the process. While each of the three were among Ohtani’s original group of suitors, it seems the trio has become pessimistic about their chances of closing a deal.

The Rangers’ ostensible exit from the Ohtani bidding dovetails with recent comments from general manager Chris Young, who just yesterday told reporters that he does not anticipate spending to the same extent he did in the past two offseasons. Texas dropped more than $500MM in the 2021-22 offseason when signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. The Rangers spent more than $200MM last winter when adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Whether the expectation for lesser spending is because they feel they’re out of the Ohtani bidding or vice versa, the end result seems to be an expectation and concession that the two-time AL MVP and longtime Rangers division rival will sign elsewhere.

As for the Mets, there was never any question whether they have the funds to pay Ohtani a contract that’s widely expected to eclipse $500MM by a comfortable margin. Owner Steve Cohen is the sport’s wealthiest and most aggressive owner. But there have long been questions about Ohtani’s desire to play in the New York spotlight and deal with the inherent media frenzy associated with that market. It should come as no surprise that the Mets (and likely the Yankees) nevertheless tried, but Passan’s report suggests those efforts have come up short. To that end, SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Ohtani’s countryman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is currently the Mets’ primary focus.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation help for the 2024 season, which doesn’t apply to Ohtani while he mends from elbow surgery. (Though he’d clearly be a factor in their 2025 rotation and beyond.) Prior reports have suggested that Boston’s focus, thus far, has been more on the trade market than on free agency. That doesn’t definitively mean that the Sox aren’t willing to spend lavishly on free agents this winter, but if their pursuit of immediate rotation help eventually leads them to free agency, it’d make for a particularly expensive offseason to pursue both Ohtani and one of the remaining top-end starters (e.g. Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery).

While those three clubs are out of the mix, Ohtani’s market does still include the likes of the Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels, per Passan. That’s not intended to be a comprehensive list of the remaining suitors, however. It stands to reason that other clubs could yet be in play. The Giants have long been linked to Ohtani, as have the Mariners — although Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported a couple weeks ago suggested that the Mariners were unlikely to ultimately land him.

Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks

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Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.

While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.

The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.

[Related: The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade]

If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.

That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.

That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.

Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.

Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.

Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.

The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.

San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.

Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.

Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.

Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.

As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.

Latest On Red Sox’s Pitching Targets

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The Red Sox are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation starting pitching. A pair of high-end starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, have come off the board. There wasn’t any indication the Sox were deeply involved in the bidding for either right-hander. Sean McAdam of MassLive writes that the Sox have been seeking to add a starter via trade before turning to free agency.

At the same time, one notable trade candidate doesn’t appear to be strongly on their radar. McAdam reports that the Red Sox have not been actively involved in discussions with the White Sox regarding Dylan Cease. The right-hander has been mentioned as a target for the Dodgers and Braves and has surely drawn unreported interest from other teams seeking rotation help.

That Boston doesn’t seem as involved in Cease discussions is a bit of a surprise. He still has two seasons of arbitration control; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary, a bargain price for a pitcher with his upside. Alongside Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow (the latter of whom seems unlikely to land within the AL East if the Rays trade him), Cease has been the subject of plenty of trade speculation.

The 27-year-old (28 next month) isn’t coming off a great season. Cease allowed 4.58 earned runs per nine, more than two runs above the 2.20 ERA he posted in 2022. A spike in hard contact and a slight dip in strikeout rate surely contributed to that less inspiring run prevention. Yet even with that downturn in whiffs, Cease still fanned an above-average 27.2% of batters faced behind an excellent 13.6% swinging strike percentage. His fastball averaged just under 96 MPH, while his slider remained a swing-and-miss offering.

While the Sox may be focused on trade targets aside from Cease, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his front office are surely keeping an eye on the top hurlers on the open market. They’ve been tied to NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and left-hander Jordan Montgomery. McAdam indicates the Sox also expressed some interest in Blake Snell when they met with the defending NL Cy Young winner’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during the GM Meetings.

Snell rode a laughably dominant second half to the second Cy Young of his career. He finished the year with an MLB-best 2.25 ERA across 180 innings. Snell led the majors with 99 walks but allowed only 5.8 hits per nine innings, the lowest mark for any qualified starter. That’s in large part thanks to a stellar 31.5% strikeout rate. MLBTR predicted Snell to land $200MM over seven seasons. He has also been linked to the Dodgers, Giants and incumbent Padres. McAdam suggests that Snell, a Seattle-area native, may prefer to sign with a West Coast team.

If that is indeed the case, that wouldn’t bode especially well for the Red Sox’s chances. The market’s other top southpaw, Montgomery, has a tie to the Northeast. While Montgomery is a South Carolina native, McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive note that he is spending the winter in Boston while his wife McKenzie begins a medical residency at a hospital in the area. It’s not clear if that’ll have any impact on his free agent preferences.

Red Sox Sign Wyatt Mills To Two-Year Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have signed right-hander Wyatt Mills to a minor league contract covering both the 2024 and 2025 seasons, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports (X link).  The length of the deal reflects Mills’ health situation, as he underwent Tommy John surgery last July and may not pitch at all during the 2024 season.

Mills has a 6.21 ERA over 42 career innings in the majors, all with the Mariners and Royals during the 2021-22 seasons.  While the early returns on his big league career have been uninspiring, Mills has a 3.25 ERA, 32.06% strikeout rate, and grounder rates usually over the 50% mark over his 188 1/3 innings in the minors.

Working out of the bullpen for all but one of his 155 games in the minors, Mills has some interesting potential as a bullpen arm, which is why both Kansas City and Boston have acquired the righty in trades during his young career.  Mills went to K.C. as part of the Carlos Santana swap with the Mariners at the 2022 trade deadline, while the Red Sox then picked Mills up in a deal last winter.

Unfortunately for Mills, he has yet to throw an official pitch as a member of the Red Sox organization.  He developed elbow inflammation during Spring Training and was sidelined for months before it was ultimately decided that Tommy John surgery was necessary.  He did earn a full year of MLB service time for spending the season on the big league injured list, yet that’s small consolation considering the injury will now cost Mills (who turns 29 in January) possibly two full years of his career.

Mills wasn’t yet eligible for salary arbitration, but the Red Sox non-tendered him anyway last week to remove him from the 40-man roster.  It’s safe to assume a handshake deal might’ve been in place to bring Mills back so quickly after he was non-tendered, and the Sox will now get to continue overseeing his TJ rehab and see what Mills can still bring to the table in 2025.  It’s not out of the question that he can bank at least some minor league innings in late 2024, since as a reliever, Mills won’t need to rebuild his arm to quite the same extent that a starter would when coming back from a Tommy John procedure.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/25/23

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The latest minor moves around the league…

  • The Red Sox have signed left-hander Jorge Benitez, according to a post on his personal Instagram account. Another post relayed by Benitez, from Ricardo Arroyo of Baseball Ahora, indicates the deal is a minor league contract that includes an invite to spring training. Benitez, 24, was a ninth-round pick by the Mariners in the 2017 draft and has spent his whole career with Seattle to this point. Benitez has not yet reached the majors, but posted strong numbers in Double-A last year with a 2.14 ERA and a 28.6% strikeout rate in 59 innings of work at the level. The addition of Benitez figures to add some left-handed depth to Boston’s bullpen, which currently sports Brennan Bernardino as its sole southpaw, though Joe Jacques represents another option already on the 40-man roster.

Yariel Rodriguez Hosts Workout For Red Sox, Padres

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Right-hander Yariel Rodriguez held a private workout today, per reporter Francys Romero. Romero adds that the Red Sox and Padres were the two teams with representatives in attendance to watch the righty, who threw two innings during the workout.

Rodriguez, 27 in March, was declared a free agent by MLB earlier this month after he was granted his release by the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons back in October. Rodriguez spent three seasons pitching out of the bullpen for the Dragons, racking up a 3.03 ERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate in 175 1/3 innings during that time. His 2022 campaign with the Dragons was particularly impressive as he dominated to the tune of a microscopic 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 frames, with a 27.5% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate.

After his dominant work in Japan, Rodriguez suited up as a starting pitcher for his home country of Cuba during the World Baseball Classic, during which he struck out ten while allowing two runs on five hits and six walks in 7 1/3 innings of work between his two appearances. Following his appearances in the WBC back in March, Rodriguez sat out the remainder of the 2023 campaign as the Dragons placed him on the restricted list prior to granting the righty his release last month.

Public evaluations of Rodriguez are few and far between thanks to the unusual nature of his free agency, but given his unusual youth for a free agent and dominant numbers overseas, it’s easy to see why teams in need of pitching help would be interested in his services, particularly if they believe he can start in the majors. MLBTR ranked Rodriguez #28 on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list earlier this month, projecting him for a four-year, $32MM contract. Earlier this offseason, Romero relayed a list of ten teams that had shown interest in Rodriguez that included neither Boston nor San Diego, while Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times indicated that the Rays were among fifteen teams that were represented at a workout held by Rodriguez last month.

It’s unclear what level of interest the clubs connected to Rodriguez thusfar this offseason have in the right-hander, though it’s easy to see how the Red Sox and Padres match up as potential fits. Boston has made it clear that additional starting pitching help is a priority for the club this offseason, including the possibility of pairing a top-of-the-market arm with a second, more affordable piece. Rodriguez could make plenty of sense as a secondary acquisition for Boston. Young arms like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford have all shown an ability to pitch both in the rotation and out of the bullpen, helping to ease the risk involved in signing an arm like Rodriguez, who hasn’t pitched regularly out of the rotation in professional games since 2019.

The Padres, meanwhile, are in need of several starting pitchers after losing Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Nick Martinez to free agency earlier this month. With San Diego reportedly intending to cut payroll this offseason, Rodriguez could make sense as a potentially impactful rotation addition with a lower acquisition cost than top-of-the-market arms like Snell. Rodriguez’s recent history as a bullpen arm seems unlikely to scare San Diego away from a deal with the righty, as Lugo had started just twelve games across his last five seasons of work before making 26 starts with the Padres this year. Martinez also has a history of working both out of the bullpen and in the rotation. His 2023 contract contained incentives accounting for both possibilities, further demonstrating the club’s willingness to get creative when it comes to arms with experience both starting and in relief.

Details On The Dodgers’ And Braves’ Pursuits Of Aaron Nola

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Aaron Nola’s new deal with the Phillies is the winter’s biggest free agent headline to date, as Nola returned to Philadelphia for seven years and $172MM.  Reports filtered in that the Braves also had significant interest in Nola, and that the right-hander turned down larger offers in order to remain with his longtime team, and the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber shed some light on those other suitors in a piece from earlier this week.

The Dodgers were another major bidder, Lauber writes, with the specific phrasing that Los Angeles “put a finger on the scale at $165MM.”  It isn’t exactly clear from this wording whether or not the Dodgers perhaps just floated this figure or if they made a formal offer to Nola’s representatives, yet it is fair to assume the latter is true given the seemingly quick timeline of events, considering that the Phillies and Braves were both bidding hard and Nola wanted to decide sooner rather than later about his future.

As for other teams, Atlanta made a starting offer of $162MM over six years, and then made a final offer worth presumably more.  Beyond the Braves and Dodgers, the Phillies thought more team were also involved in the Nola sweepstakes, “with at least one other club offering more” than Philadelphia’s $172MM.

Naturally it isn’t at all surprising that Nola drew such high-dollar interest, given his status as one of the top free agents available in this offseason’s market.  MLBTR ranked Nola fifth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract.  He ended up getting more overall money than our projection, if less of an average annual value stretched out over a seventh year of a contract, yet the Phillies’ ability to just get close to comparable offers from other teams was enough to seal the deal.  “Nola strongly preferred staying with the Phillies, and his agent Joe Longo let it be known that $172 million would get it done,” Lauber writes.

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos typically likes to make most of his bigger moves earlier in the offseason, and that trend has continued.  The bullpen has been a major early focus, as Reynaldo Lopez was just signed to a three-year deal worth at least $30MM in guaranteed money, and Atlanta retained Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson before free agency officially opened.  The Braves were also very aggressive in cutting down their list of arbitration-eligible players, with a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders that ultimately shaved a decent chunk of money off the payroll.

The exact size of that 2024 payroll and what Anthopoulos has to work with isn’t yet known, leading to quite a bit of speculation about what exactly the Braves are planning.  Obviously landing Nola would have taken up a big portion (if not all) of whatever payroll space Atlanta has left, and the Braves are already on pace to top their team-record $203MM payroll from last year.  The Braves are also set to surpass the luxury tax threshold for the second consecutive year, which adds another interesting wrinkle — signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like Nola would’ve cost the Braves two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus money as compensation.

Under Anthopoulos, the Braves have usually made measured strikes in the free agent market.  Most of Anthopoulos’ biggest moves have been trades, with his free agent signings usually limited to veterans on one-year or two-year deals (if at a high average annual value).  Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal from the 2020-21 is far and away the biggest contract Anthopoulos has given to a free agent, and Nola’s contact would’ve drastically exceeded Ozuna’s number.

While the Dodgers are no stranger to big-money deals, it is worth noting that Nola at a $165MM price tag would’ve also represented the biggest free agent contract of Andrew Friedman’s tenure running the L.A. front office.  Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162MM pact from the 2021-22 offseason is the current benchmark, and the fact that Los Angeles was willing to spend so much on Nola is an early sign of how aggressive the team plans to be this winter.

Signing the durable Nola would’ve been a huge help to a Dodgers rotation that is lacking in experience, as the team is expected to add two or three pitchers to the group via free agency and trades.  This is alongside the Dodgers’ other big pursuit of the winter, as Los Angeles is seen as one of the favorites — if perhaps the favorite — to sign Shohei Ohtani to what will almost surely be the biggest guaranteed contract in baseball history.  The Dodgers may be way under the luxury tax threshold for now, but with Ohtani’s situation, severe pitching needs, and some other roster holes to be addressed, L.A. doesn’t appear to have any reservations over surpassing the tax for the fourth straight year.

One team absent from Nola’s market was Boston, as the Red Sox “weren’t meaningfully involved in bidding,” according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.  This tracks with reports from mid-November suggesting that while the Sox were interested in a top-tier starting pitching addition, Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were the team’s preferred options ahead of Nola and Blake Snell.

Red Sox Hire Andrew Bailey As Pitching Coach

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Nov. 21: The Red Sox have now formally announced the hiring of Bailey as their new pitching coach.

Nov. 14: The Red Sox are close to an agreement with Andrew Bailey to become the team’s new pitching coach, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (X link). Assuming the deal is completed, the 39-year-old will head back to a place where he pitched from 2012-13.

Bailey’s stint in the Sox’s bullpen overlapped with that of Boston’s first-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. The two-time All-Star pitched parts of eight seasons from 2009-17 before moving into the coaching ranks. He spent two years with the Angels before taking over as Giants pitching coach going into 2020. Bailey held that role in San Francisco for four seasons.

Along the way, he quickly built a reputation as one of the game’s better pitching minds. The Mets attempted to interview Bailey for a bench coach vacancy in 2022, but the Giants refused permission. His contract expired at the end of the ’23 campaign, however. Bailey has looked for opportunities closer to his home in the Northeast. He attracted interest from the Marlins and interviewed for the bench coach vacancy with the Yankees yesterday. The Giants subsequently tabbed Bryan Price when it became clear Bailey wasn’t returning to the Bay Area.

Bailey will replace Dave Bush, who was dismissed as Sox’s pitching coach at the beginning of the offseason. He takes over a staff that isn’t too dissimilar from the ones he managed in San Francisco. The Giants had a very flexible approach to pitcher usage, frequently deploying openers and bullpen games around top starter Logan Webb (who developed into a high-end arm during Bailey’s tenure). Boston has a number of talented multi-inning arms but is lacking in certainty on the starting staff.

Brayan Bello tailed off in the second half. Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have flashed but generally found more success in relief. Nick Pivetta has been inconsistent, although he’s coming off the most dominant few months of his career to close the 2023 campaign. Chris Sale has battled myriad injury issues. Breslow and his front office will surely bring in more stability with a veteran addition or two. They’ll hope Bailey can help coax another level out of their in-house options.

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