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Emilio Pagan Exercises Player Option With Reds

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The Reds announced that right-hander Emilio Pagan has exercised his $8MM player option for the 2025 season.  Pagan inked a two-year, $16MM contract with Cincinnati last winter that included an opt-out clause after the first season, and the reliever has chosen to forego a $250K buyout and a return trip to free agency.

There wasn’t much suspense in Pagan’s decision, as he missed just short of three months of the 2024 season due to a lat strain.  The injury limited to Pagan to 38 innings in as many appearances, marking the lowest career total in either category for Pagan during any of his seven regulation-length MLB seasons (Pagan tossed 22 innings in 22 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign).

Pagan’s first season in Cincinnati saw him post a 4.50 ERA, but a much more impressive 3.19 SIERA.  An inflated .351 BABIP undermined some solidly above-average strikeout (28.1%) and walk (7%) rates, though Pagan did allow a lot of hard contact.  Even with this favorable set of advanced metrics, it makes a lot of sense that the 33-year-old Pagan would prefer to lock in $7.75MM of extra guaranteed salary rather than test the market on the heels of what he surely views as a middling platform year.

Pagan’s bottom-line results haven’t always been consistent, though he isn’t far removed from a strong 2023 campaign (with the Twins) that helped him land that $16MM deal in the first place.  It isn’t a coincidence that Pagan’s 2023 season included by far the lowest home run rate (5.3%) of his career, as the righty has long had difficulty in keeping the ball in the park.  Those issues returned with a 12.5% homer rate in 2024, just slightly bettering his 12.8% career mark.

With Pagan returning and Brent Suter signed to a new contract, the Reds’ bullpen will have some familiar faces back, even if Buck Farmer and swingmen Nick Martinez and Jakob Junis are now all heading for free agency.  Getting Alexis Diaz back on track is surely the Reds’ top bullpen concern heading into 2025, though having Pagan stay healthy and deliver his usual type of innings-eating season will surely also help.

Nick Martinez Declines Player Option; Brent Suter Re-Signs New Deal With Reds

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The Reds announced their full slate of option decisions for the 2025 season this afternoon. Right-hander Nick Martinez turned down his $12MM player option for next season. The Reds held a $3.5MM club option on lefty reliever and Cincinnati native Brent Suter, but rather than exercising it they’ve signed him to a new one-year contract with a club option for the 2026 season. He’ll be guaranteed $2.25MM and the option is worth $3MM, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that the Reds first paid the $500K buyout on Suter’s $3.5MM option for the upcoming season before re-signing him to the new terms.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati declined a $3.5MM option on catcher Luke Maile in favor of a $500K buyout, while right-hander Jakob Junis declined his end of an $8MM mutual option. He’ll be paid a $3MM buyout. Each of Martinez, Maile and Junis are now free agents.

Martinez, now 34, has shown a strong willingness to bet on himself when it comes to contracts. After pitching in Japan from 2018 to 2021, he has returned to North America and continually signed deals with opt-outs that he has triggered.

Going into 2022, he signed a four-year, $25.5MM deal with the Padres with the ability to opt-out after each season. He eventually triggered his first opt-out and re-signed with the Friars for 2023, a $26MM guarantee over three years with a convoluted club/player option structure. After the 2023 season, the Padres turned down a two-year, $32MM club option and then Martinez turned down his two-year, $16MM player option. He then signed a two-year, $26MM deal with the Reds that again allowed him to opt out after one season.

With the Padres before and with the Reds in 2024, Martinez oscillated between the rotation and bullpen. He got into 42 games this year, including 16 starts, tossing 142 1/3 innings with a 3.10 earned run average. His 20.4% strikeout rate was a bit below average but his 3.2% walk rate was elite. Among pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched this year, only George Kirby gave out free passes at a lower rate.

Both with the Padres and Reds, his results have been better out of the bullpen. This year, he had a 3.84 ERA as a starter but a 1.86 mark as a reliever. Whether he’ll be viewed as a reliever or starter will likely differ from club to club, but he should be able to top $12MM on the open market, making his decision to opt out a logical one.

Now the Reds will be able to issue him a qualifying offer and it has been suggested in some circles that they will consider it. Though Martinez is a solid contributor, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him offered a $21.05MM QO.

None of his previous contracts have had an average annual value higher than $13MM, so he would likely accept such an offer. The Reds have generally had payrolls just a bit above $100MM in most recent years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so Martinez accepting the QO would take up something approaching a fifth of their payroll. That’s a lot of money to commit to a swingman.

Suter, 35, has been a steady performer in the big leagues for close to a decade now. Debuting back in 2016, he now has a 3.45 ERA in over 500 career innings. He signed with the Reds in the offseason and gave them 65 2/3 innings with a 3.15 ERA. His strikeout rate wasn’t great but he demonstrated excellent control and his usual propensity for limiting damage. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate were both in the 96th percentile, according to Statcast.

His previous deal came with a $2.5MM salary for 2024 and a $500K buyout on a $3.5MM club option for 2025. As mentioned, the Reds gave him that buyout and worked out a new salary for the upcoming season, also securing a club option for ’26.

Maile doesn’t hit much but has a strong reputation as a defender and game-caller. That continued to be the case this year, as he slashed .178/.268/.252 but with solid work behind the plate.

The Reds are moving on today but could perhaps circle back to Maile at a lower price point. Tyler Stephenson is the only backstop on the 40-man roster now, so they will need to find a backup, whether that’s Maile or someone else.

Junis, 32, has generally had solid results in his career. However, his 2024 was largely held back by injury. He signed with the Brewers in the winter, a $7MM guarantee broken up into a $4MM salary and a $3MM option.

He went on the injured list early in the year due to a right shoulder impingement. His return from that injury was delayed when he was struck by a batted ball during BP. He eventually tossed 67 innings on the year with a 2.69 ERA, getting flipped from the Brewers to the Reds as part of the deadline deal that sent Frankie Montas to Milwaukee.

Going back to the start of 2021, Junis has thrown 304 1/3 innings with a 3.99 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate and should be able to secure himself a solid deal in free agency.

Marlins Claim Christian Roa

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The Marlins announced that they have claimed right-hander Christian Roa off waivers from the Reds. Christina De Nicola of MLB.com relayed the claim on X prior to the official announcement. The Fish also announced that right-handers Shaun Anderson, Darren McCaughan and Adam Oller as well as infielder/outfielder David Hensley have been outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville. Oller is expected to elect free agency and pursue opportunities in Asia, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 on X.

Roa, 25, was on Cincinnati’s 60-day injured list but the IL goes away five days after the World Series. Rather than reinstating him to the 40-man roster, the Reds evidently tried to pass him through waivers but the Marlins grabbed him.

The righty was a second-round pick of the Reds and has been a notable prospect in the club’s system since then. He has racked up a fair number of strikeouts as a minor leaguer but also given out a large number of walks. He has thrown 318 2/3 innings in his minor league career with a 4.46 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 14.3% walk rate.

He was added to Cincinnati’s 40-man roster a year ago to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He spent this year pitching in Triple-A with a 5.55 ERA. His walk rate was still high at 13.5% and his strikeouts dropped to a rate of 21.2%. In August, the Reds recalled him to the majors and added him to their 60-day IL with a right shoulder sprain in order to open up a 40-man roster spot.

The Marlins will take a shot on him and see if they can help him rein in that control a bit. Roa still has two more option seasons and less than a year of service time. For a rebuilding club like the Marlins, they can take their time and see if the Roa project can bear some fruit for them down the line.

The four outrighted players were all fairly recent additions to the Miami roster. The club suffered a high number of injuries in 2024 and was often grabbing players from everywhere in order to keep the roster filled as they played out the string on the campaign.

Anderson was designated for assignment by the Rangers at the end of May and got flipped to the Marlins for cash. He posted an 8.27 ERA in 16 1/3 innings for the Fish after that. McCaughan was claimed off waivers from the Guardians in July and went on to throw 36 innings for Miami with a 5.75 ERA. Oller signed a minor league deal with the club in July, later having his contract selected to throw 42 1/3 innings with a 5.31 ERA. Hensley was claimed off waivers from the Astros at the end of July and then hit .212/.293/.288 in 23 games as a Marlin.

The three pitchers have previous career outrights and therefore have the right to elect free agency. This is Hensley’s first outright but she should have the right to elect minor league free agency as a player with seven years on the farm.

Ty France Elects Free Agency

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves Friday, most notably revealing that first baseman Ty France cleared waivers and elected free agency. He would’ve been arbitration-eligible and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.6MM in his final season of club control. Today’s outright and subsequent free agency election is effectively an early non-tender.

Cincinnati also passed catcher Austin Wynns, righty Tejay Antone and outfielder Nick Martini through waivers unclaimed. Like France, Wynns and Martini opted for free agency. Antone accepted an outright assignment and will remain with the club and continue mending from the third elbow surgery of his career.

France, 30, was an offensive force for his first three years with the Mariners from 2020-22, hitting a combined .285/.355/.443 with 42 homers, 68 doubles and three triples in 1418 plate appearances. He rarely struck out (16.7%), hit plenty of line drives and, after spending much of his minor league career playing other positions, worked his way into becoming an above-average defender at first base.

The 2023 season was a step back in all regards. France’s batting line slipped to .250/.337/.366 — still respectable but nowhere near his prior levels, particularly in the power department. His production dwindled further this year, and the Mariners designated him for assignment after he mustered only a .223/.312/.350 line in 88 games. The Reds swung a trade to acquire France in hope that a change of scenery would improve his output. France’s rate stats modestly improved, but not to the extent that one might hope when going from the league’s most pitcher-friendly stadium in Seattle to its most homer-happy park in Cincinnati. He finished the year at .234/.305/.365 between the two clubs.

France will now head to the free-agent market for the first time but do so coming off a sub-optimal platform spanning two years of struggles. He’ll likely be limited to one-year offers and guarantees well shy of the $8.6MM he’d been projected to earn in arbitration.

Wynns, 33, is the consummate journeyman backup catcher. He’s a career .230/.277/.332 hitter in 673 plate appearances split among five big league teams. He’s been with six different organization since the Orioles selected him in the tenth round of the 2013 draft. Wynns is regarded as a sound defender but has never provided much from an offensive standpoint.

Martini, 34, cracked the Reds’ Opening Day roster and belted a pair of homers in their first game of the season. It was downhill from there, however. He hit just .204/.266/.324 over his next 159 plate appearances before suffering a sprained thumb that ended his season in early July. Martini is a career .294/.399/.454 hitter in parts of eight Triple-A seasons and a .252/.336/.400 hitter in 575 big league plate appearances.

Brandon Leibrandt Elects Free Agency

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Left-hander Brandon Leibrandt cleared outright waivers and elected free agency, according to his transaction log at MLB.com. Cincinnati had designated him for assignment on Monday as one of the corresponding moves to reinstate Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt McLain from the injured list. The Reds also designated Amed Rosario on Monday; there’s no formal resolution on his DFA but he’ll be a free agent as soon as the World Series ends so it’s irrelevant.

That wasn’t necessarily the case for Leibrandt, who would’ve been under club control if another team had claimed him. It always seemed likely he’d go unclaimed and return to the market in search of another minor league deal. The 31-year-old cracked the roster as a depth arm at the end of August. He pitched twice at the big league level, surrendering seven runs across 6 1/3 innings. Leibrandt’s only other MLB experience came as a member of the Marlins during the pandemic season. He has allowed nine runs over 15 1/3 career frames, walking nine batters while striking out eight.

Leibrandt was pitching in the independent ranks when the Reds signed him to a minor league deal in May. He pitched reasonably well as an organizational depth starter with Triple-A Louisville. Leibrandt turned in a 4.41 ERA across 83 2/3 innings in a hitter-friendly environment. He struck out a league average 22.7% of batters faced against a 6% walk rate. That could earn him another minor league contract.

Joey Jay Passes Away

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Former All-Star pitcher Joey Jay passed away last month at age 89, according to an obituary from a Florida funeral home. A 6’4″ right-hander, he pitched 13 seasons in the big leagues.

A native of Middletown, Connecticut, Jay signed with the Milwaukee Braves for a $20K bonus in 1953. Under the so-called “bonus baby” rules of the time, a player who signed for more than $4K could not be assigned to the minor leagues. Jay therefore jumped right to the majors as a 17-year-old for the 1953 season. He remarkably tossed 10 scoreless innings in an abbreviated stint. He only made 15 appearances the following year, struggling to a 6.50 ERA across 18 innings in his age-18 season.

After two seasons in the majors, Milwaukee was able to assign Jay to the minors. He wouldn’t make a permanent return to the big leagues until 1958, his age-22 campaign. Jay pitched well in a swing role over the next three years. His career really took off when he was dealt to the Reds as part of a package for Gold Glove shortstop Roy McMillan during the 1960-61 offseason.

Cincinnati plugged Jay into the rotation. He seized on his first permanent rotation spot, working to a 3.53 ERA over 247 1/3 innings covering 34 starts. He led the National League with 21 wins and four shutouts among his 14 complete games. Jay was selected to both All-Star teams in 1961 — MLB had multiple All-Star games for a few years during that time — and finished fifth in NL MVP balloting. Three of the four players above him (Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda, Vada Pinson and Roberto Clemente) went onto Hall of Fame careers.

The Reds finished 93-61 that season to secure the NL pennant before the introduction of the Championship Series. Cincinnati met the Yankees in the World Series. Jay got the ball in Game 2 and tossed a two-run complete game to get the victory. That’d be the Reds’ only win of the set. Jay was hit hard in the Game 5 clincher, as the Yanks tagged him for four runs without allowing him to escape the first inning.

That season was the highlight of Jay’s career, but he had another productive season in 1962. He again won 21 games with a 3.76 ERA through a personal-high 273 innings. While his production tailed off from there, he remained a fixture of the Cincinnati rotation through ’65. The Reds dealt him back to the Braves, who were playing in Atlanta by that point, midway through 1966. He finished his career with nine appearances there before being released.

Jay ended his playing days with 3.77 ERA in more than 1500 innings. He fell one win shy of the century mark and was one strikeout away from reaching 1000. Jay’s obituary notes that he went on to run companies in West Virginia and Florida during his post-playing days. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends and loved ones.

Reds Designate Brandon Leibrandt, Amed Rosario For Assignment

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The Reds announced that infielders Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt McLain have been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. To open 40-man roster spots for those two, they designated left-hander Brandon Leibrandt and infielder Amed Rosario for assignment. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer relays on X that the moves were necessary because McLain and Encarnacion-Strand are technically on rehab assignments in the Arizona Fall League and they reached their maximum rehab time, therefore needing to retake spots on the 40-man roster.

The Reds suffered a large number of significant injuries in 2024, with McLain and Encarnacion-Strand two of the biggest losses. McLain underwent left labrum surgery in March and was hoping to come back around August. But he suffered a stress reaction in his rib cage while trying to make his way back and ended up missing the entire season.

Encarnacion-Strand played 29 games but may have been playing hurt as he put up a dismal .190/.220/.293 line in that time. He was hit by a pitch on his hand in April and an X-ray revealed an old fracture that CES couldn’t figure out how he suffered. He went on the IL in May with a right ulnar styloid fracture and eventually underwent surgery in June. That procedure came with a three-month timeline and he wasn’t able to return in the remainder of the regular season.

Both players missed significant time in 2024 but apparently got healthy as the season was ending, so the Reds sent both to the Glendale Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League to get some reps before the winter sets in. The Dogs played their first game on October 8 and rehab assignments come with a 20-day maximum for position players. It seems that MLB views their time in the AFL as a rehab assignment, so they had to be reinstated from the 60-day IL today with their rehab window closing.

The moves are largely technicalities, as both players would need to be reinstated from the injured soon regardless. There’s no injured list from five days after the World Series until spring training begins, so all players on the 60-day IL need to be reinstated soon anyway. This rehab formality just forced the Reds to do it slightly ahead of schedule.

Of the two players they bumped off, Rosario was slated to be off the roster soon anyway. He signed a one-year deal with the Rays for 2024, eventually getting traded to the Dodgers before landing with the Reds via waivers. There’s no reason for any club to claim him now, as 28 of the 30 clubs are eliminated. He wouldn’t be postseason eligible with the Yankees or Dodgers since it’s after the September 1 cutoff date. As a veteran with more than six years of service time, he has the right to reject an outright assignment. He’ll soon hit free agency, a few days earlier than anticipated.

Leibrandt, 32 in December, could have been retained for next year as he has less than a year of service time but seemingly wasn’t in Cincinnati’s plans. He signed a minor league deal with the club in May and got added to the roster at the end of August. He stuck on the 40-man for the final month of the season but was mostly on optional assignment. He only got into two major league games this year, allowing seven earned runs in 6 1/3 innings.

He was fairly serviceable in the minors this year, with a 4.41 ERA in 17 Triple-A starts. He had a 22.7% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. However, he was pitching independent leagues last year and at the start of 2024. As a journeyman sliding towards his mid 30s, he was surely viewed as a temporary option on the club’s roster this year as they dealt with numerous pitching injuries.

As a player with a previous career outright, he has the right to elect free agency as opposed to accepting another outright assignment. Most clubs are facing roster crunches in the coming days, so he’ll presumably clear waivers and return to the open market shortly.

Reds Hire Chris Valaika As Hitting Coach

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The Reds announced today that Chris Valaika has been hired as director of hitting and major league hitting coach. He had previously been with the Guardians as that club’s hitting coach but will now move to the other side of Ohio.

Valaika, 39, was originally a third-round draft pick of the Reds back in 2006. He played in the majors from 2010 to 2014, for the Reds, Marlins and Cubs, and then pivoted to coaching after his playing days. He started in the minor league system of the Cubs, eventually working his way up to the major league staff with that club. He was hired by the Guardians going into 2022, working under then-manager Terry Francona.

Francona stepped away after 2023 to focus on his health, with Stephen Vogt taking over as Cleveland’s skipper. Francona is ready to return to a managerial role, as it was reported earlier this month than he’ll be leading the Reds starting with the 2025 season, replacing David Bell.

A few days after Francona’s hiring became public, it was reported that Cincinnati was moving on from hitting coach Joel McKeithan as well as assistant hitting coaches Terry Bradshaw and Tim LaMonte. One of those positions has now been filled with a familiar face for Francona.

In 2022, the Guardians hit .254/.316/.383 for a wRC+ of 100. That indicates they were exactly league average, though their 18.2% strikeout rate was the lowest in the majors by a notable margin, with the Astros second at 19.5%. The Cleveland offense dipped a bit in 2023, with a .250/.313/.381 line and 91 wRC+, but again with the best strikeout rate in the league. Here in 2024, they dropped to fifth-lowest in terms of strikeout rate but added some more power, getting to a .238/.307/.395 line and 100 wRC+ as they pushed as far as the ALCS.

It’s always difficult to separate the contributions of a coach from the performances of the players on the team, but Francona presumably had a good relationship with Valaika during their two years together, as he has now plucked him away and brought him to Cincinnati.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.

No-Doubters

These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.

As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.

Likely

Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.

The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.

Borderline Calls

Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.

The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.

New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.

The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.

It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.

An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.

This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.

Long Shots

Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.

Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).

Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.

Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.

The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.

Reds’ Julian Aguiar Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Reds righty Julian Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery on Friday, tweets Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Sheldon had reported earlier in the week that Aguiar underwent surgery before issuing a correction that the rookie pitcher was still evaluating his options.

The second opinion evidently didn’t allow the 23-year-old to avoid surgery. Aguiar will almost certainly miss the entire 2025 season. Assuming the Reds keep him on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason, they can place him on the 60-day injured list at the start of Spring Training. He’d spend all of next season on the IL before returning to the 40-man during the winter.

Aguiar has developed from a 12th round pick out of a California junior college into one of Cincinnati’s better pitching prospects. Baseball America slotted the 6’3″ righty as the #9 prospect in the Reds system on their most recent organizational ranking. BA credits Aguiar with a plus changeup as the headlining pitch of an otherwise average arsenal. The outlet suggests he could profile as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Cincinnati called Aguiar up in the middle of August. He earned the promotion with a solid 3.79 earned run average across 116 1/3 innings between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville. Aguiar didn’t have much success in his first look against big league competition. Opponents tagged him for a 6.25 ERA over seven starts. He surrendered eight home runs across 31 2/3 frames while struggling to miss bats. Aguiar generated swinging strikes at only an 8.1% clip, resulting in a well below-average 13.6% strikeout rate.

The Reds lost two potential back-end starters in the waning weeks of the season. Lefty Brandon Williamson also blew out in September and went for his own Tommy John procedure. The Reds still have a promising nucleus of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder and Andrew Abbott but will need to find reliability at the back of the rotation. Nick Martinez and Jakob Junis are both expected to decline options and become free agents. Lowder has limited MLB experience, while Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers had rough seasons. The Reds could look for multiple starting pitchers during the offseason.

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