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Reds Rumors

NL Central Notes: Matz, Perez, Pirates, Reds Deadline

By Mark Polishuk | August 25, 2022 at 9:24am CDT

Steven Matz suffered a torn left MCL in late July, leading to fear that the left-hander’s season would possibly be over, even if surgery wasn’t required.  However, Matz is now making increased progress towards a return, with Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol telling reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) that Matz’s knee was pain-free while fielding some grounders on Wednesday.  Matz also threw 30 pitches off the mound during the warm-up session.  It could mean that Matz is nearing a minor league rehab assignment, though the Cardinals will continue to closely monitor his status considering his lack of workload.

Matz has pitched just once since May 22, as a shoulder impingement kept him on the injured list for almost two months, and he then suffered his MCL injury in his first start back off the IL.  St. Louis has Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and trade deadline acquisitions Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana all thriving in the rotation, so if Matz is able to return, he could be used in a bullpen role or competing with Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, or another rehabbing starter in Jack Flaherty for that final spot in the rotation.  The Cardinals could potentially also explore using a six-man rotation down the stretch, or perhaps just give some of their regulars some rest if the Cards can clinch the NL Central title relatively early.  With a 17-5 record thus far in August, the Cards have opened up a 5.5-game lead over the struggling Brewers in the division race.

Some other items from around the Central…

  • Roberto Perez believes “there’s interest from both parties” in a new deal between the Pirates and the veteran catcher, Perez told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).  Perez inked a one-year, $5MMM free agent contract with the Pirates last winter, but played in only 21 games before undergoing season-ending surgery on his left hamstring.  The catcher confirmed that his season is indeed over, as he had been hoping to make enough rehab progress to return for the final few games of the schedule.  Re-signing Perez would add a seasoned backstop to a Pittsburgh catching mix that doesn’t include a lot of big league experience, though the Bucs are hoping that if all goes well, former first overall pick Henry Davis might be able to make his MLB debut before the 2023 season is up.
  • The Reds dealt away Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Brandon Drury at the trade deadline, in a flurry of rebuilding moves that added a lot of depth and quality to Cincinnati’s farm system.  Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer explores the front office’s approach to the deadline, which first included some last-minute contract extension talks with Castillo and Drury’s representatives.  When those talks didn’t result in much progress, the Reds shifted focus to the trade market, with GM Nick Krall noting that the interest in Castillo allowed them to make high initial asks.  If other clubs weren’t open to that first ask, “then we can just move on….It was a pretty good way to trim the number (of teams) down from the very beginning,” Krall said.  Cincinnati had always targeted Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo when speaking with the Mariners, and both of those highly-regarded infield prospects ended up included in the package the Reds received for Castillo.  The Reds also had several offers on the table for Mahle and Drury, with the front office ultimately deciding that the offers from the Twins (for Mahle) and Padres (for Drury) were the best of the group.
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Cincinnati Reds Notes Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Brandon Drury Edwin Arroyo Luis Castillo Noelvi Marte Roberto Perez Steven Matz Tyler Mahle

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Injury Notes: Kopech, Pasquantino, Ashcraft, Tigers

By Anthony Franco | August 23, 2022 at 10:10pm CDT

The White Sox placed starter Michael Kopech on the 15-day injured list this afternoon due to a left knee strain. The righty seemed to suffer the injury during warm-ups before yesterday’s start against the Royals, and his velocity was well down during the outing. Kopech didn’t record an out, allowing two hits, a walk and a hit batsman before being taken out of an eventual 6-4 loss. Alarming as that showing was, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times relays that the club expects Kopech to return when first eligible two weeks from now (Twitter link).

Even a minimal IL isn’t ideal for a Chicago team that entered play Tuesday three games back of the Guardians in the AL Central. Kopech has been one of the club’s more effective pitchers, carrying a 3.58 ERA through 110 2/3 innings (and a 3.25 mark if one throws out yesterday’s performance as an injury anomaly). Kopech’s strikeout and walk numbers haven’t been as impressive, however, and there are lingering questions about precisely how many innings the 26-year-old may be equipped to throw this year. He worked primarily in relief last season and tallied 69 1/3 frames during his first season back after missing all of 2019-20. He’s already eclipsed that mark by over 40 innings this year.

Catching up on some other injury situations around the game:

  • The Royals placed rookie designated hitter/first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino on the 10-day injured list due to right shoulder discomfort this afternoon. Like Kopech, the 24-year-old was injured in yesterday’s contest between Chicago and Kansas City. After a breakout 2021 season in the minors, Pasquantino emerged as one of the game’s top offensive prospects heading into this year. He mashed in Triple-A and has hit the ground running as a big leaguer, carrying a .263/.350/.434 showing with eight home runs and an excellent combination of walks (11%) and strikeouts (13.5%) through his first 200 MLB plate appearances. The left-handed hitter looks like a key long-term piece for a Kansas City team with its attention firmly turned towards 2023. Fellow top prospect Nick Pratto should pick up the first base playing time in Pasquantino’s absence, while Ryan O’Hearn and Hunter Dozier may get the majority of the DH at-bats. Kansas City didn’t specify a timetable on Pasquantino’s return.
  • Reds starter Graham Ashcraft landed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 20, with biceps soreness. The rookie right-hander is headed for an MRI, but skipper David Bell indicated the club was optimistic about his ability to return before the end of the season (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The 24-year-old made his big league debut debut in May and has joined Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene as rookie rotation cogs for the Reds. Through 16 starts, the hard-throwing hurler owns a 3.97 ERA on the strength of an excellent 54.8% ground-ball rate. Ashcraft looks to have made a strong case for a rotation role next season, generally outperforming both Lodolo and Greene — each of whom has been more highly-regarded by most prospect evaluators.
  • The Tigers placed second baseman Jonathan Schoop on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 21, with a sprained right ankle. It’s the first IL stint in two years for the veteran infielder, who has played in just under 95% of Detroit’s games since the start of 2021. Schoop posted above-average numbers last year to earn a contract extension in August, but he’s had a dreadful showing offensively this season. Over 447 plate appearances, he’s hitting only .202/.235/.318 with nine home runs. Defensive metrics have been enamored with his glovework at the keystone, but no other qualified hitter is within 19 points of Schoop’s league-worst on-base percentage. He’s likely to exercise a $7.5MM player option this winter to return to the club for 2023.
  • Sticking with the Tigers, manager A.J. Hinch cast doubt on the possibility of seeing catcher Jake Rogers this season (via Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic). Rogers underwent Tommy John surgery last September, and he’s spent the entire year on the 60-day injured list while rehabbing. It’s almost been a calendar year since that operation. The 27-year-old Rogers hit .182/.264/.378 in 255 plate appearances between 2019-21.
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Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals Notes Graham Ashcraft Jake Rogers Jonathan Schoop Michael Kopech Vinnie Pasquantino

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Reds, Stephen Piscotty Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | August 23, 2022 at 7:07pm CDT

The Reds have agreed to a minor league contract with Stephen Piscotty, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. The veteran outfielder was released by the A’s last week. He’s headed to Triple-A Louisville.

Cincinnati is the third career organization for the 31-year-old Piscotty. A Cardinals draftee, he spent the first three seasons of his big league career in St. Louis. Piscotty was a well above-average hitter for the first couple years of that stretch, earning a long-term contract extension heading into the 2017 campaign. He had his first below-average season that year, though. After the season, the Cardinals dealt the Bay Area native to the A’s — a move partly motivated by a desire to allow Piscotty to be closer to home while his mother battled ALS.

During his first season in green and gold, Piscotty posted arguably the best season of his career. He hit a personal-high 27 home runs and put up a .267/.331/.491 showing across 605 plate appearances. At age 27, he looked to have gotten back on track offensively, but he’s seen a marked dip in performance over the past four years. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty owns a .229/.287/.378 line in just shy of 900 plate appearances. He’s hitting .190/.252/.341 with a 34.5% strikeout rate over 42 games this year.

Those struggles led the A’s to move on from Piscotty last week. Oakland will remain on the hook for the rest of this season’s $7.25MM salary, and they’ll also have to pay a $1MM buyout on a 2023 club option. Cincinnati will only owe Piscotty the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum (which would be subtracted from the A’s obligations) should Piscotty play his way back to Great American Ball Park.

There’s no financial downside for the Reds in adding some extra outfield depth, as they’ve been platooning in both corners of late. The lefty-hitting TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley have gotten the stronger side of that arrangement, while Aristides Aquino and Stuart Fairchild are on hand as righty options. Aquino is hitting only .176/.236/.235 in 55 plate appearances this month, so Piscotty could be an option to supplant him in relatively short order if he gets on track with Louisville.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions Stephen Piscotty

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NL Central Notes: Pujols, Peterson, Wisdom, Miley, Overton

By Mark Polishuk | August 21, 2022 at 4:05pm CDT

Albert Pujols’ recent hot streak hasn’t changed the legendary slugger’s mind about retirement, as Pujols told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that he is “still going to retire” at season’s end.  Despite a 1.428 OPS in 53 plate appearances since the All-Star break and his ever-nearing proximity to some notable milestones, Pujols confirmed that he hasn’t thought about playing in 2023.

“I don’t get caught up in numbers.  If you were going to tell me 22 years ago that I would be this close, I would have told you that you’re freakin’ crazy,” Pujols said.  “My career has been amazing…I’ve had enough.  I’m glad I made the announcement this was it when I signed.  Really, I wouldn’t change a thing.”

Pujols now has 692 career homers, making it a realistic possibility that he can pass Alex Rodriguez (696 homers) on the all-time list and perhaps even become the fourth player in history to reach the 700-homer threshold.  After last night’s four-hit performance against the Diamondbacks, Pujols is also now second on the all-time total bases list, passing another Cardinals legend in Stan Musial.  Interestingly, Nightengale also notes that Pujols’ desire to return to St. Louis led him to pass up on offers from three other teams this winter, even though those other clubs were offering either more playing time or more money than Pujols’ $2.5MM salary for 2022.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Brewers utilityman Jace Peterson told reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that he’ll start a three-game minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday, with an eye towards returning to the majors when the Brewers open a series with the Cubs on Friday.  A left elbow sprain sent Peterson to the 10-day injured list on July 20, and since he had been bothered by a UCL injury prior to that IL placement, there was some concern that he would be sidelined deeper into September or even that his season could be threatened.  However, Peterson is now on pace to continue what has been a quietly valuable season, as he has contributed both versatility all around the diamond and above-average offense (111 wRC+) in 241 plate appearances, batting .252/.325/.439 with eight home runs.
  • Cubs manager David Ross provided updates on some injured players, telling MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian and other reporters that x-rays were negative on Patrick Wisdom’s left ring finger, and Wisdom is day to day.  Wisdom suffered the injury on a slide into home plate in yesterday’s game.  Wade Miley will also get back onto the mound and throw tomorrow, after experiencing some tightness in his left shoulder on Friday.  Between two shoulder-related IL stints and some elbow tightness at the end of Spring Training, Miley has tossed only 19 innings in his first season in Chicago.  Before this latest setback, Miley has pitched four rehab outings and seemed to be nearing a return, so it remains to be seen how much more time (if any) this recent bout of soreness could cost the veteran southpaw.
  • Speaking of setbacks, Reds right-hander Connor Overton had a hamstring tweak while working out at the Reds’ Arizona training complex, manager David Bell told reporters (including The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale).  A stress fracture in Overton’s lower back sent him to the 60-day injured list on May 19, and he has already been sidelined for well beyond the initial 6-to-8 week recovery timeline.  A rehab assignment was still a ways away, as Overton had progressed only to long toss.  Depending on the severity of Overton’s hamstring issue, the rookie is running short on time to make it back to the field before the end of the season.
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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Notes St. Louis Cardinals Albert Pujols Connor Overton Jace Peterson Patrick Wisdom Wade Miley

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NL Notes: Dodgers, Kershaw, Marlins, Sanchez, Reds, Santillan

By TC Zencka | August 20, 2022 at 8:04am CDT

Clayton Kershaw could return to the Dodgers in the second week of September if all goes according to plan, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). His back now asymptomatic, Kershaw has started throwing bullpens. With the division all but locked up, the Dodgers will prioritize getting Kershaw healthy for the postseason. The legendary southpaw has continued to defy the odds when healthy, pitching to a 2.64 ERA/2.72 FIP in 15 starts covering 85 1/3 innings. Elsewhere in the National League…

  • Sixto Sanchez pushed back his bullpen session from Saturday to Monday after experiencing some shoulder discomfort, per Christina de Nicola of MLB.com (via Twitter). An emergent star during the shortened 2020 season, Sanchez made seven starts and continued to pitch well into the postseason. But the now-24-year-old hasn’t pitched since because of injuries. Miami would love to see Sanchez get back to the Majors for a taste of action this season – even just to build some momentum heading into 2023.
  • The Reds are unlikely to see reliever Tony Santillan return to the mound this season, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). Santillan looked like someone who could potentially take on a bigger role this season after posting a 2.91 ERA/4.62 FIP over 43 1/3 innings in 2021. The Reds gave Santillan some high leverage opportunities, but he only stayed healthy long enough to collect four saves and a 5.49 ERA/4.09 FIP in 19 2/3 innings across 21 outings.
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Cincinnati Reds Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins Notes Clayton Kershaw Sixto Sanchez Tony Santillan

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Injury Notes: Votto, Moustakas, Strahm, Barlow, Cooper

By Darragh McDonald | August 19, 2022 at 10:39pm CDT

The Reds announced today that they have activated Mike Moustakas from the 10-day injured list while transferring Joey Votto to the 60-day injured list. Votto’s transfer was a mere formality, as it had already been reported that he will be undergoing season-ending rotator cuff surgery. However, Votto underwent the surgery today and there was apparently a bit more damage than expected, with his bicep also needing to be tended to.

Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer relayed the news from general manager Nick Krall. “Joey this morning had successful surgery to repair his left rotator cuff and bicep,” Krall said. “The surgery was a little more than expected. The injury definitely limited the use of his left shoulder and affected his performance, but we expect he will be able to participate in spring training and be ready for the 2023 season.” Despite the surprise damage to Votto’s bicep, the recovery time will still reportedly be six months, meaning he should still be on pace for next season. Votto seems to be in good spirits about the whole thing, if his tweeting is anything to go by. 2023 will be the final guaranteed year of the 10-year, $225MM extension Votto signed back in 2012.

As for Moustakas, he been limited to 73 games this year due to multiple trips to the injured list. When healthy, he’s hit just .200/.289/.326. That’s fairly similar to his .208/.282/.372 output from last year, with both those lines amounting a wRC+ of 70. 2023 will also be the last guaranteed year of his deal. The Reds don’t have any financial commitments for 2024, other than the buyouts of $20MM options for Votto and Moustakas.

Other injury notes from around the league…

  • The Red Sox announced that they have reinstated left-hander Matt Strahm from the injured list, optioning right-hander Josh Winckowski in a corresponding move. Strahm had been out of action for more than a month due to a wrist contusion. The southpaw is having a nice bounceback season after losing most of 2021 to injury. Through 27 2/3 innings this season, he has a 3.58 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate that’s the best he’s registered since 2018. He’ll look to continue with those strong results down the stretch as he’s heading back to free agency this winter and could do better than the one-year, $3MM deal he got from Boston for 2022.
  • The Rangers announced that reliever Joe Barlow has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right index finger blister, with A.J. Alexy recalled to take his place on the roster. Barlow already went to the IL earlier this year due to a blister on the same finger, returning just two days ago. Now he’ll head back to the IL due to the same issue in what is surely a frustrating development for the hurler. Prior to these setbacks, he got some time as the club’s closer, racking up 13 saves. He has a 3.16 ERA on the season through 31 1/3 innings.
  • The Marlins announced to reporters, including Christina De Nicola of of MLB.com, that first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper has been placed on the seven-day concussion IL. Cooper’s hitting .269/.345/.415 on the year, good enough for a wRC+ of 118. He’s somewhat quietly been a consistently above-average hitter in recent years, producing a wRC+ of 111 or higher in four straight season now.
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Boston Red Sox Cincinnati Reds Miami Marlins Texas Rangers Garrett Cooper Joe Barlow Joey Votto Matt Strahm Mike Moustakas

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Joey Votto To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery On Rotator Cuff

By Mark Polishuk | August 17, 2022 at 2:23pm CDT

Joey Votto’s season is over, as the longtime Reds first baseman told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that he will undergo surgery on Friday to fix a torn rotator cuff.

As Votto told reporters (including reps from Bally Sports), that his shoulder has actually been bothering him since 2015, though it has only become “painful to the point where it’s…difficult to lift, hurts to sleep” over the last few months.  “The doctor informed me that with these sort of injuries at some point you hit a breaking point, and you’re not able to manage it quite as well,” Votto said, and that proverbial breaking point only occurred this season.  The procedure has roughly a six-month rehab time, so Votto should be ready for around the start of the Reds’ Spring Training camp.

Votto’s 16th season will finish with 91 games played, as beyond this rotator cuff problem, he also missed over two weeks on the COVID-19 list in May.  The veteran posted a .205/.319/.370 slash line and hit 11 home runs over 376 plate appearances — he hit well in his first few weeks after returning from the COVID list but otherwise, the 2022 season has been a struggle.

While the number of games is certainly a factor, Votto’s 92 wRC+ is the worst of his career, and it represents the second time in four seasons that Votto’s offensive production has fallen beneath the league-average 100 wRC+ threshold.  Votto did hit pretty well in 2020, yet there were still whispers that his best days were behind him….before Votto exploded with another excellent season in 2021.  The first baseman slugged 36 homers (matching the second-highest total of his career) last year while hitting .266/.375/.563 in 533 PA.

It’s safe to say that Votto’s increasingly problematic rotator cuff injury was the source of his 2022 dropoff, as the lesser version of his shoulder soreness didn’t stop from posting MVP-caliber numbers on multiple occasions since 2015.  With the injury now finally addressed, it is possible that Votto might have one more big performance in store for 2023.  That said, Votto will also be 39 years old next season, and even with a fixed rotator cuff, he might not be immune to aging curve that usually limits players outside of their prime years.

The return from surgery also adds another wrinkle to what might be Votto’s farewell season altogether.  2023 is the final guaranteed season of the 10-year, $225MM extension Votto signed back in April 2012, though Cincinnati has a $20MM club option (with a $7MM buyout) for 2024.  If Votto did return to his 2021 form, that could be enough for the Reds to make the $13MM decision to bring back the longtime face of the franchise, even if the Reds have been more focused on cutting payroll in the last two seasons.

Votto’s own feelings will naturally also be a factor, as he has intimated in the past that he would retire if he was no longer getting enjoyment out of playing the game.  It remains to be seen how Votto will approach this eventual decision, as he will surely weigh such factors as his health, how close the Reds might be to contending, and his 2023 performance as well as the personal satisfaction he still derives from baseball.  Whenever he does decide to hang up the glove, Votto will surely get a lot of consideration from Hall Of Fame voters, and a ticket to Cooperstown could well be in Votto’s longer-term future.

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Cincinnati Reds Newsstand Joey Votto

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Reds Sign Derek Law To Minor League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | August 14, 2022 at 10:27pm CDT

The Reds have signed right-hander Derek Law to a minor league contract, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has been assigned to the Triple-A Louisville Bats.

Law, 31, has previously pitched for the Giants, Blue Jays and Twins, before joining the Tigers this year. He was signed to a minor league contract in April and pitched well in Triple-A this season. In 39 innings over 33 appearances, he registered a 3.23 ERA with a 27.2% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 46.2% ground ball rate.

He was selected to the big league club at the end of July but was designated for assignment less than a week later, after getting into just two MLB games. Law cleared waivers and was outrighted by the Tigers, though he was eligible to elect free agency based on the fact that he’s been previously outrighted in his career and also has over three years of MLB service time.

Law did indeed elect free agency and will now join a Cincinnati team with notable pitching depth concerns. They currently have 11 hurlers on the injured list, with seven of those being on the 60-day IL. Given those injuries and the fact that they traded Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle at the deadline, the pitching staff is not in the strongest shape at the moment. Should they decide they need a fresh arm, Law should be an intriguing option, given his experience and solid minor league numbers this year.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions Derek Law

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Marlins Outright Billy Hamilton

By Steve Adams | August 12, 2022 at 2:55pm CDT

The Marlins have outrighted outfielder Billy Hamilton to Triple-A Jacksonville and optioned outfielder Bryan De La Cruz to Jacksonville, tweets Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. That pair of moves makes room for infielder/outfielders Jon Berti and Brian Anderson to be reinstated from the injured list.

That Hamilton has already been outrighted to Triple-A indicates that he passed through waivers unclaimed. Given the time of year and the number of teams that could view him as a vital defensive replacement/pinch-runner late in the season, that’s a bit of a surprise. That said, Hamilton also has the ability to reject this assignment in favor of free agency, which would allow him the opportunity to potentially latch on with a contender.

Hamilton, 31, appeared in 20 games with the Marlins but, reflective of the role in which he’ll most often find himself at this point in his career, logged just 15 plate appearances. The former top prospect averaged 57 steals per season with the Reds from 2014-17 and has long been regarded as one of the best defensive players in the sport, regardless of position. His offense has never matched the baserunning and defensive value, however, and his typically pedestrian output at the plate has dwindled even further in recent years.

Dating back to the 2019 season, the switch-hitting Hamilton is a .209/.266/.293 hitter in 241 plate appearances. Though he had a knack for putting the ball in play early in his career, he’s fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances over the past two seasons.

That said, Hamilton has gone 16-for-16 in stolen bases over the past two seasons and is 321-for-392 (81.9%) in his career. He’s also racked up a whopping 74 Defensive Runs Saved and 59 Outs Above Average to go along with a 57.9 Ultimate Zone Rating in 6865 career innings in the outfield (nearly all coming in center).

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Cincinnati Reds Miami Marlins Transactions Billy Hamilton Brian Anderson Bryan De La Cruz Jon Berti

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Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann

By Brad Johnson | August 12, 2022 at 1:41pm CDT

Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429

Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620

After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.

Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA

During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.

Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.

Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA

Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.

In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.

Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.

Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.

Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.

Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Baltimore Orioles Big Hype Prospects Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies Milwaukee Brewers San Francisco Giants Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Corbin Carroll Elly De La Cruz Evan Carter Ezequiel Tovar Gunnar Henderson Jackson Chourio Josh Jung Kyle Harrison Noelvi Marte Ricky Tiedemann

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