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Report: Indians Have Informed Other Clubs They Intend To Trade Francisco Lindor

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If you’ve been even loosely following things for the past couple of years, the notion that the Indians will trade star shortstop Francisco Lindor this offseason should come as no surprise. Still, it’s nevertheless of some note to see USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweet that Cleveland has informed other clubs of their intent to trade Lindor before Opening Day.

This is hardly the first such indication of the concept. We’ve discussed the possibility here at MLBTR numerous times in the past couple years — most recently two weeks ago when Connor Byrne ran through potential offseason trade partners who could take on Lindor for his final year of club control before free agency next year. The Athletic’s Zack Meisel also took a look at the possible market for Lindor last week, consulting with his colleagues who cover many prospective trade partners for the Indians.

The eventual trade of Lindor will serve as the inevitable culmination of a saga that began two years ago when, asked about the possibility of a Lindor extension, Indians owner Paul Dolan ominously told fans to simply “enjoy him.” Cleveland has long been a low-payroll organization, though the club ramped up payroll after its 2016 World Series run, even signing Edwin Encarnacion to a three-year, $60MM contract that winter.

Since that time — particularly over the past two offseasons — it’s been a steady march to reduce spending and return payroll to normal levels. Encarnacion was traded two years into that deal, while All-Star outfielder Michael Brantley was allowed to leave as a free agent without the club risking a qualifying offer. Cleveland has traded Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger as well and neglected to spend to address a lackluster outfield group in the post-Brantley era, instead focusing on hopeful bargain-bin additions.

All of those payroll-paring efforts came prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic that left all 30 MLB clubs without gate revenue for the 2020 season. The Indians themselves raised one of the most substantial red flags regarding the economic turmoil throughout the game when they placed All-Star closer Brad Hand on waivers in an effort to avoid paying a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option they did not intend to exercise. To the Indians’ credit, the negative framing of that move here at MLBTR was proven to be a bit misplaced when Hand went unclaimed and Cleveland was forced to pay the buyout anyhow.

That said, the decision not to retain Hand, coupled with all of the team’s recent market dealings, paints a clear picture of an organization that feels it necessary to further slash payroll — even at a time when the roster possesses enough talent to contend in the American League Central.

Jason Martinez of Roster Resource/FanGraphs projects that the Indians will have a roughly $72MM payroll for the 2021 season, but that figure includes the $19.5MM salary which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Lindor to earn. Trading Lindor and potentially non-tendering some members of their arbitration class would put the Indians down into the $50MM range, pending any smaller-scale offseason additions.

It’s worth noting, of course, that Lindor’s trade value is likely at an all-time low. Beyond the fact that he has merely one year of club control remaining, he’s also coming off a poor season at a time when many rival clubs will simply balk at taking on a near-$20MM salary.

Lindor, 27 next week, turned in a pedestrian .258/.335/.415 slash (100 wRC+) with eight homers and six steals in this year’s shortened slate of games. It’s only a sample of 266 plate appearances, and Lindor registered a combined .278/.342/.514 output (121 wRC+) in the 2017-19 seasons combined, playing all-world defense at shortstop and averaging 34 homers and 21 steals per year along the way.

That track record should still fuel demand for his services, but with the benefit of hindsight, many fans will suggest the Indians waited a year too long to move him, given the inevitable nature of his trade candidacy. In addition to Dolan’s “enjoy him” line, it’s crucial to add that Lindor turned down an extension offer reported to be in the neighborhood of $100MM prior to the 2017 season, when he had just over a year of Major League service time. A long-term union between the two sides has never been seen as likely, and the primary question now is one of where — not whether — he’ll be traded.

Lindor himself has acknowledged the possibility of being traded this winter while simultaneously rejecting the notion that the team “can’t afford” to sign him. Asked by Meisel on Oct. 1 if Cleveland should be able to meet his asking price on a contract, Lindor replied: “Of course. It’s a billion-dollar team. Of course.”

Asked later in the interview about his expectations for the game’s economy over the next year in the wake of 2020 revenue losses, Lindor rhetorically answered: “Did you see MLB just signed a $3 billion contract?” The contract referenced by Lindor is the reported seven-year, $3.7 billion deal with Turner Sports to continue broadcasting half of the postseason’s games. Back in 2018, MLB also agreed to a seven-year, $5.1 billion rights deal with FOX for the World Series and the other half of postseason media rights in that same 2022-28 span.

40-Man Roster Additions: 11/1/20

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With the offseason kicking off, most teams are bringing some inactive players back onto their rosters. Here’s the latest:

  • The Rockies announced they’ve activated outfielder Ian Desmond from the restricted list. Outfielder David Dahl and right-handers Peter Lambert and Scott Oberg are back from the 60-day injured list, putting Colorado’s 40-man roster tally at 38. Desmond opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns and is entering his final year under contract. Dahl underwent shoulder surgery in September, capping a miserable season. Lambert, meanwhile, underwent Tommy John surgery in July. Oberg unfortunately also had to go under the knife, undergoing thoracic outlet surgery to alleviate blood clots in September.
  • The Indians reinstated right-hander Jefry Rodríguez from the 45-day injured list (via Tribeinsider). While working at Cleveland’s alternate training site, the 27-year-old went down with a strain in his throwing shoulder in early September. Rodríguez worked 98.2 innings of 5.20 ERA ball with the Nationals and Indians between 2018-19 but didn’t pitch in the majors in 2020. Cleveland’s 40-man roster now sports 35 players.
  • The Rays activated pitchers Jalen Beeks, Yonny Chirinos, Colin Poche and Cody Reed from the 45-day injured list (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Each of Beeks, Chirinos and Poche has undergone Tommy John surgery over the past few months, meaning none will be ready (or even particularly close) at the start of next season. Reed suffered an injury to his left pinky finger shortly after being acquired from the Reds. He’s expected to be a full-go for spring training, Topkin notes.
  • The Mariners have brought outfielder Mitch Haniger, catcher Tom Murphy and right-hander Andres Muñoz off the 45-day injured list, per Greg Johns of MLB.com. Haniger has dealt with a series of brutal injuries since emerging as one of the sport’s quieter stars, but he’s finally expected to be healthy next spring. Like Haniger, Murphy missed the entire 2020 season; the backstop broke a bone in his foot on the heels of a breakout 2019. Muñoz underwent Tommy John surgery while part of the Padres’ system in March. Still, the Mariners acquired the fireballing 21-year-old before the trade deadline as part of the return for Austin Nola, Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla. Seattle now has 35 players on the 40-man roster.

Mike Freeman Elects Free Agency

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Infielder Mike Freeman elected free agency today, the Indians announced. He had previously been outrighted. With his decision, Cleveland now has 6 open spots on their 40-man roster.

Freeman has been outrighted before by the Indians, but he found his way back regardless for the 2020 season. The 33-year-old veteran has never been a major-league regular, but he’s nonetheless a 5-year veteran having spent time with the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Dodgers, Cubs, and Indians.

His most prolific season came in 2019 with the Indians when he slashed .277/.362/.390 with 4 home runs across 213 plate appearances. He appeared in 24 games in 2020, though just 8 as a starter. He slashed .237/.302/.316 over 43 plate appearances.

The former 11th round pick of the Diamondbacks plays all over the diamond, with his value coming primarily via defensive prowess and versatility. He appeared everywhere in the infield as well as left field for the Indians over the past two seasons.

Indians To Replace Brad Mills As Bench Coach

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Brad Mills is being reassigned to another role within the Indians organization and won’t return as the club’s bench coach in 2021, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti announced on Friday.  Mills has been the bench coach since 2014, and a member of Cleveland’s coaching staff since 2012.

Mills opted out of participating in the 2020 season, and with manager Terry Francona also missing much of the season due to health issues, first base coach Sandy Alomar took over the acting manager role while third base coach Mike Sarbaugh assumed bench coach duties.  With Francona and the rest of the Tribe’s coaching staff expected to return next season, the obvious move might be to move Alomar into the bench coach job, though it remains to be seen how the club will address the vacancy.

Perhaps best known for managing the Astros from 2010-12, Mills has long been a fixture on Francona’s coaching staffs.  He worked as the bench coach under Francona with the Red Sox from 2004-09, and also as a first base coach when Francona managed the Phillies from 1997-2000.

Indians Decline Options For Carlos Santana, Domingo Santana, Brad Hand; Pick Up Roberto Perez’s Option

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The Indians have turned down club options for first baseman Carlos Santana, outfielder/designated hitter Domingo Santana and left-handed reliever Brad Hand, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. They have, however, picked up catcher Roberto Perez’s $5.5MM option.

Carlos Santana will get a $500K buyout instead of the $17.5MM salary he could have made. Domingo Santana will earn $250K in lieu of a $5MM salary. Meanwhile, the Indians will pay Hand $1MM over the $10MM figure he was due on his option.

It’s not a surprise the small-budget Indians are moving on from the Santanas, at least at those prices. Carlos Santana has spent all but one season of his career in Cleveland since it began in 2010 and has performed quite well, but he’s now coming off a disappointing year. Santana’s keen eye at the plate did lead to more walks (47) than strikeouts (43), but his average and power declined significantly en route to a .199/.349/.350 line with eight home runs in 255 PA. Even with another effective season, it would have been difficult to imagine the Indians keeping the 34-year-old for such a lofty fee.

The Indians took a chance last free agency on Domingo Santana, who once looked like a breakout hitter with the Brewers. Santana struggled late in 2019 with the Mariners, though, and that carried into this year. He gave the Indians a horrid .157/.298/.286 line with a paltry two HRs in 84 PA.

It’s not at all eyebrow-raising that the Indians are moving on from Hand, as they placed him on outright waivers Thursday. The move came as a shock at the time, though Hand nonetheless cleared waivers instead of saving the Indians from a buyout. He’ll head to free agency as a 30-year-old with an outstanding track record, including three All-Star appearances. Hand’s now fresh off a season in which he led baseball in saves (16, with no blown chances), put up a magnificent 2.05 ERA/1.37 FIP and posted 11.86 K/9 against 1.64 BB/9 in 22 innings.

Perez was one of the game’s top all-around catchers as recently as 2019, but a right shoulder injury limited his appearances and his effectiveness this year. However, despite slashing a woeful .165/.264/.216 with one HR over 110 PA, the Indians are keeping him in the fold. As things stand, they have two light-hitting, defensively gifted backstops in Perez and Austin Hedges, who could combine to make in the $8.5MM neighborhood in 2021.

Indians Place Brad Hand On Outright Waivers

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In a rather stunning move, the Indians have placed closer Brad Hand on outright waivers, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). It’s a pure cost-cutting transaction from Cleveland, with the hope that another team places a claim on the left-hander, who has a $10MM club option on his current contract. Any club that claims Hand would be able to pick up that option and retain him for the 2021 season at that $10MM price.

Per Meisel, the Indians had planned to decline the option, which would’ve required paying a $1MM buyout. They’ll decline it if he goes unclaimed. However, Cleveland would stand to save that $1MM if another team makes a claim, which seems possible given Hand’s excellent 2020 season and generally strong track record.

Hand, 30, led the American League with 16 saves this year and posted a 22-to-4 K/BB ratio with a 2.05 ERA over the life of 22 innings. He had a few hiccups in the ninth inning early on, but Hand’s overall results fall right in line with his All-Star track record. Since being unearthed by the Padres on a waiver claim back in 2016, Hand owns a 2.70 ERA with 12.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and 0.87 HR/9.

Waiver priority at this juncture is based on reverse order of the league-wide standings. That’d give the Pirates, Rangers, Tigers, Red Sox, D-backs, Orioles, Nationals, Mets, Rockies and Angels first crack at Hand, in that order. Most of those clubs are rebuilding or cutting costs themselves, but it’s feasible that a team like the Red Sox, Nats, Mets or Angels could place a claim with an eye toward contending in 2021.

Frankly, revenue losses notwithstanding, it’s arguable that any club should welcome the chance to bring Hand into the fold. There’s not a team that wouldn’t be bettered by adding a pitcher of this caliber to its relief corps, and the one-year, $10MM price point would be considered a bargain under normal market circumstances.

Of course, the absence of fans in 2020 has created what most expect to be a brutal market for free agents as clubs take drastic measures to cut payroll. As such, some clubs will surely pass on claiming Hand — maybe in hopes that he’ll go unclaimed and be available on a multi-year deal at a lower annual rate — but it’s hard to imagine that a hopeful contender won’t jump at the opportunity to acquire an elite bullpen price on a one-year term.

As for the Indians, this removes  doubt about the club’s offseason direction. It’s long been expected that they’ll continue last winter’s efforts to pare back payroll, although not in such egregious fashion. The move to place Hand on waivers only seems to further the likelihood that Cleveland will trade superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor, whose salary could approach or exceed $20MM in his final trip through the arbitration process. That much has looked likely since owner Paul Dolan infamously told fans to “enjoy him” a few years back, but it now feels more inevitable than ever before.

Looking more broadly at the market as a whole, it’ll be of greater concern for free agents — relievers, in particular — across the game if Hand somehow passes through waivers unclaimed. If no club is willing to take on Hand at a one-year, $10MM term (or if he survives all the way to the Dodgers, who are last in waiver priority), that will speak volumes about market expectations in the months to come.

Looking For A Match In A Francisco Lindor Trade

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The 2020 season ended in more disappointment for the Indians, who reached the playoffs but were once again unable to break a World Series drought that has gone back to their most recent title in 1948. The Indians may again try to contend next season, but it’s entirely possible they’ll do so without superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. Although the charismatic four-time All-Star won’t even turn 27 until next month, he’s only a year from a trip to free agency, and odds are that the low-budget Indians won’t be able to extend him. With Lindor due to earn anywhere from $17.5MM to $21.5MM in arbitration, it could make sense for the Indians to listen to trade offers before next season. If that happens, here’s a group of teams that might inquire…

Yankees

  • New York seems to have its long-term answer at shortstop in Gleyber Torres, but he had a so-so season, after which general manager Brian Cashman indicated he’s not a lock to remain at the position. With second baseman DJ LeMahieu set to reach free agency, the Yankees will have to address their middle infield in the coming months. What better way to replace LeMahieu than by acquiring Lindor? He’d grab short and allow the Yankees to move Torres back to the keystone, where he gained a large amount of experience from 2018-19.

Mets

  • This should be an aggressive offseason for the Mets, who figure to change owners from the Wilpons to Steve Cohen. If Cohen wants to make an immediate, headline-grabbing impact, there won’t be many better ways than by acquiring Lindor. The Mets aren’t necessarily set at short, where Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario were more OK than great in 2020.

Angels

  • Regardless of whether the Angels acquire Lindor, they’re probably going to add a new starting middle infielder this offseason. David Fletcher’s capable of playing shortstop, so they’re not necessarily a shoo-in to pick up someone there. However, with Andrelton Simmons set to hit free agency, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them add a high-profile replacement and keep Fletcher at second. The Angels, having missed the playoffs six years in a row, could decide to go big on Lindor. He’d look good in a lineup with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.

Braves

  • The Braves received solid production from shortstop Dansby Swanson in 2020, but after failing to take home a championship once again, would they consider a sizable splash in their infield? It seems possible, especially considering their uncertainty at third base. In the event of a Lindor acquisition, the Braves could either move Swanson to the hot corner or make Swanson part of the (a) trade.

Phillies

  • Shortstop wasn’t an issue in 2020 for the Phillies, who benefited after signing Didi Gregorius to a $14MM contract. The problem for Philly is that it may lose Gregorius in free agency, leaving the position as a question mark heading into the offseason. Lindor would make for a more-than-adequate Gregorius replacement if the latter leaves.

Dodgers

  • Flaws are typically hard to find on the Dodgers’ roster, but considering their deep farm system and their penchant for pursuing stars in trades (Mookie Betts and Manny Machado, to name a couple in recent years), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them involved in the Lindor sweepstakes. The Dodgers are fine with moving players all over the diamond, so even though there’s no clear “fit” for Lindor in LA – which boasts Corey Seager, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux among its returning middle infielders – the club could probably make it work.

Blue Jays

  • Toronto already has an-up-coming shortstop in Bo Bichette, but perhaps the club would be willing to shift its infield around to accommodate Lindor after a playoff season. Bichette could move to second or third, giving the Jays an infield consisting of him, Lindor, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. On paper, that may be among the scariest IF units in the game.

Reds

  • A Lindor pursuit could  be out of the question for the Reds, but they do need immediate aid at shortstop. Picking up Lindor would give the team a better chance to contend in 2020, and it would hand Cincinnati an opportunity to send Jose Garcia back to the minors for further seasoning.

Athletics

  • The A’s may not have the financial clout to pull this off, but all bets could be off if it’s just for a year. Either way, the A’s, who are coming off a division-winning season, will have to figure out their middle infield before next season. Starting shortstop Marcus Semien is slated for free agency, leaving the A’s without a solution there for the time being.

Twins

  • Considering Cleveland and Minnesota are in the same division, it seems unlikely they’ll match up on a Lindor trade. Still, if the Twins make a compelling offer, the Indians would have to listen. Adding Lindor would allow the Twins to move current starting shortstop Jorge Polanco into a utility role, though that’s assuming he wouldn’t be involved in a possible deal.

Cubs

  • The Cubs already have a shortstop in Javier Baez, but he had a shockingly rough 2020 and does have extensive experience at second base. Maybe president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, who’s seeking to change around the Cubs’ offense, would acquire Lindor and move Baez to the keystone in hopes of giving the club a jolt. Chicago does have a notable young middle infielder in Nico Hoerner, but he hasn’t hit since debuting in 2019.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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Has Francisco Lindor played his last game in an Indians uniform?  The shortstop’s fate is the biggest of several questions facing the Tribe this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $27MM through 2022 (including $3MM buyout of $14MM club/vesting option for 2022 season)
  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $11MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022; also has a $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $5.5MM club option ($450K buyout)(deal also has $7MM club option for the 2022 season)
  • Domingo Santana, OF: $5MM club option ($250 buyout)

Free Agents

After winning 93 games but missing the postseason in 2019, the Tribe got back to the playoffs this year before being unceremoniously swept by the Yankees in the best-of-three wild card series.  Despite a .588 winning percentage since the start of the 2017 season, the Indians haven’t won a single postseason series in those four years, making one of the more successful stretches in franchise history seem like something of a disappointment.

Cleveland has both stretched and tried to manage its payroll to sustain this competitive window, trading such high-salaried notables as Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in 2019 to save some money and add some younger talent.  Even before the COVID-19 pandemic reduced revenues around baseball, the 2020-21 offseason was always projecting to be a transformative one for the Indians given how many key players (and key salaries) could be moved off the books.

We’ll begin with Lindor, who is entering his final year under team control.  Though neither side has ruled out the possibility of a contract extension, the writing has long been on the wall that the Indians won’t be able to afford the $200MM+ it would take to retain Lindor over the long term.  As such, this offseason represents the last and best opportunity for the Tribe to deal Lindor for a significant trade return, since waiting until next year’s trade deadline would greatly reduce the Indians’ asking price (and increases the risk of Lindor getting hurt or having a bad season).  Moving Lindor prior to Opening Day would also allow Cleveland to save at least $17.5MM in payroll, depending on how his arbitration number is figured.

There are several teams who figure to check in on Lindor’s services, if they haven’t already over the last couple of seasons.  Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, and Andrelton Simmons headline this winter’s free agent shortstop class, so Lindor could be seen as a preferable upgrade to that trio for shortstop-needy teams.

Is there a case to be made for keeping Lindor?  Certainly.  Looking at the finances first, Carlos Santana is likely to have his $17.5MM club option declined in the wake of a career-worst season for the veteran first baseman.  With Santana’s money coming off the books anyway, Lindor’s salary might not be seen as onerous for a club that has so little in the way of future contractual commitments.

Plus, trading Lindor for an acceptable return might not be quite so easy for Cleveland.  We’re only a year away from a potentially epic free agent shortstop class that could include Lindor himself along with Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager, so rival teams might prefer to acquire a one-year stopgap for 2021 before making the big splash at the position next year.  Trading for Lindor now would cost a team both young talent and money in the form of Lindor’s salary, whereas signing any of Semien, Gregorius, or Simmons costs only money, and less than Lindor’s projected arbitration cost.  Lindor is also coming off a down year by his standards (.258/.335/.415 with eight home runs over 266 plate appearances), which could make teams wary if they don’t write that performance off as a by-product of 2020’s unusual circumstances.

Cleveland doesn’t seem to have any inclination to rebuild, so having Lindor in the lineup would go a long way towards getting them back to the playoffs.  His average numbers in 2020 notwithstanding, Lindor is still one of baseball’s better players, and he has a particular importance on an offensively-challenged Cleveland team.  Part of the reason the Indians were willing to deal Bauer, Kluber, and Mike Clevinger was because of the club’s impressive ability to find and develop big league-ready pitching to restock the rotation, but Lindor is a much tougher player to replace.

MVP candidate Jose Ramirez and young slugger Franmil Reyes are the only sure things in a lineup that could be completely overhauled.  Beyond Lindor and Santana, Cesar Hernandez performed admirably as the Tribe’s second baseman but is headed for free agency.  Delino DeShields and/or Tyler Naquin could be non-tendered as the outfield continues to be a problem area.  At catcher, the Indians could roll with Roberto Perez and Austin Hedges and let Sandy Leon walk in free agency, or one of Perez or Hedges could be let go.

Keeping Lindor would add more stability to an overall unstable position player mix.  In the event that he is dealt, the Tribe could look internally to Yu Chang, Mike Freeman, or (with an aggressive promotion) prospect Tyler Freeman to fill the shortstop void, or Cleveland could themselves look to add a one-year veteran stopgap.  Chang or Mike Freeman could then be used at second base if Hernandez isn’t re-signed, though Hernandez has expressed interest in returning and might have a palatable enough asking price for the Tribe to explore a reunion.

Josh Naylor, acquired from the Padres as part of the Clevinger trade in August, will factor somewhere into the 2021 lineup, though it remains to be seen if the Canadian will be an everyday player at either left field or first base.  Jake Bauers could also be used at either position while Bobby Bradley is a first base candidate.  Star prospect Nolan Jones could also factor into the first base or corner outfield picture, as Jones is being worked out at other positions since Ramirez is occupies third base.

There are enough in-house candidates to provide the front office with some flexibility in their winter shopping.  If the outfield is a priority over second base, for example, the Indians could put their resources towards adding an outfielder and then making do with a Chang/Freeman platoon at the keystone.  The problem is, of course, that just about all of Cleveland’s internal candidates are either unproven at the MLB level or are coming off dreadful seasons.  (Oscar Mercado, for instance, went from Rookie Of The Year candidate in 2019 to possibly the worst hitter in baseball in 2020.)  While keeping Lindor helps this lineup, the lack of solid position player depth also serves as an argument for dealing him, since a trade might be the best method for the Tribe to acquire at least one younger, cheaper, MLB-ready regular.

Since spending will be a premium, the Tribe will be looking to find veterans at relative bargain prices.  The non-tender market is expected to be enormous, and every other team in baseball will also be hoping to scoop up lower-cost players from that same pool.  In a market where contract offers might be low across the board, the Indians have some attractive selling points for prospective free agents — plenty of opportunity for regular playing time, as well as the chance to play for a consistent contender with an elite pitching staff.

Speaking of that rotation, the Indians have the luxury of being able to focus much of their attention the position player side of the diamond thanks to their collection of arms.  Cleveland is one of the few teams that has the pitching depth to potentially make a starter available in a trade, and as the most expensive of the bunch, Carlos Carrasco might be the most obvious trade chip.  As Zack Meisel of The Athletic recently noted, however, Carrasco is such a clubhouse leader and important veteran voice on the perpetually young pitching staff that the team might see him as too valuable to move.  If the hitting is going to continue to be a question mark, the Tribe might also prioritize keeping their rotation as strong as possible.

Cleveland’s bullpen was almost as impressive as the starting staff in 2020.  Another contract with veteran southpaw Oliver Perez seems like a reasonable proposition, but Brad Hand’s $10MM club option looms as the relief corps’ biggest issue.  With James Karinchak positioned as a closer of the future, the Indians might prefer to install Karinchak now rather than pay $10MM to a reliever, even an outstanding one like Hand.  However, Hand is still such a quality pitcher that letting him go for nothing seems like something of a waste of an asset.

Exercising Hand’s option would at least allow the Indians the flexibility to explore trading him this winter, and if no deal could be found, $10MM for Hand might not be so hard to absorb if other salaries (i.e. Santana, Hernandez, Lindor) are also being moved out.  Cleveland could even explore packaging Lindor and Hand together in one blockbuster trade package, if another team wanted to make a big splash to contend in 2021.

With such a tremendous young rotation, the Indians’ window for a World Series is still open.  This offseason will be spent adding and subtracting from the lineup in search of the combination that will generate enough offense to give the pitching a chance.

AL Notes: White Sox, Renteria, Indians, Blue Jays

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As the Rays and Astros battle for the American League pennant, let’s check in on a trio of teams whose offseasons have already started:

  • On the heels of their first postseason berth since 2008, the White Sox somewhat surprisingly parted ways with manager Rick Renteria yesterday. Jim Margalus of Sox Machine digs into the likely motivations behind that decision. To some extent, Renteria was the victim of circumstances, Margalus feels; when the former Cubs skipper took over on the South Side entering the 2017 season, the Sox were amidst a rebuild. Margalus opines those first few years of losing, while expected, made it easier for the front office to move on from Renteria now if they weren’t convinced the 58-year-old was best equipped to guide the contending club to postseason success. (Indeed, the front office was displeased when Renteria pushed back a bit against the use of data in his in-game decision-making, reports Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). Another factor working against Renteria, according to Margalus: the Tigers’ own vacancy, which could have spurred GM Rick Hahn to launch a managerial search this offseason rather than risk losing an ideal potential candidate to a division rival.
  • Sticking with the AL Central, the Indians face an offseason rife with uncertainty. The catching situation will be particularly interesting, Zack Meisel of the Athletic observes. Cleveland holds a $5MM club option on starter Roberto Pérez, while backup Austin Hedges would be in line for a raise on his $3MM salary in arbitration. That combination might prove too pricey for the low-payroll Indians, Meisel points out. That would seem to hint at Hedges being non-tendered, but Cleveland clearly liked him enough to acquire him from the Padres just over a month ago as part of the return for Mike Clevinger. Pérez had a dismal 2020 but is only a year removed from performing as one of the league’s best catchers; it’s hard to envisioning the Indians declining his option based upon a poor 100 plate appearances, although perhaps Pérez becomes a trade candidate himself if the club is comfortable turning to Hedges as their top option.
  • The Blue Jays acquired Ross Stripling from the Dodgers at this year’s trade deadline, but the right-hander struggled in 15.2 innings after the deal. Nevertheless, he’s likely to be a key piece of the Toronto pitching staff in 2021, Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic believes. GM Ross Atkins specifically mentioned Stripling when discussing the team’s pitching options, McGrath notes, suggesting there’s not much of a chance he’ll be non-tendered this offseason. That’s not surprising, as Stripling is likely only in line for a small raise on this season’s modest $2.1MM salary.

Antonetti, Chernoff Discuss Indians’ Payroll, Francona, Lindor

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Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff held their season-ending media event this afternoon, discussing numerous topics with The Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes, MLB.com’s Mandy Bell, The Athletic’s Zack Meisel, and other reporters.

As has become a trend during these wrap-up events in 2020, there was much discussion about how the economic uncertainty brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic will impact the Tribe’s payroll going forward.  While Antonetti said “we don’t have a specific number for a payroll at this point,” no implication was given that the Indians would increase spending in such a “daunting” financial environment.

“The reality of the finances in baseball in 2020 is that the industry lost billions of dollars and as a team we lost tens of millions of dollars.  That puts us in a really difficult financial position that will take us years to recover from,” Antonetti said.

Pre-pandemic, the Indians had a projected payroll of just under $100MM for the 2020 season and that number could drop significantly given the amount of money coming off the books.  Cesar Hernandez, Oliver Perez, and Sandy Leon are all free agents, and Cleveland holds club options on Carlos Santana and Brad Hand for 2021.  If all five of those players departed, the Tribe would save approximately $39.5MM in salary, though obviously the team would be left needing to fill multiple roster holes.

Francisco Lindor represents Cleveland’s biggest obligation, as the shortstop is arbitration-eligible for the third and final time and will earn a raise on his $17.5MM salary for 2020.  Given his rising price tag, Lindor’s name has swirled in trade rumors for months, and this offseason could represent the Tribe’s last chance to get a significant trade return on his services.

While Antonetti said “I don’t think I ever take that view” that Lindor is a surefire trade candidate, the executive did say that there hadn’t been any more extension talks with Lindor’s camp since negotiations broke off during Spring Training.  “What has happened with the pandemic has added an entirely unexpected layer of complexity as to what the future may look like.  So we haven’t even started to wrap our head around what that may look like,” Antonetti said.

Perhaps more tellingly, Antonetti also made multiple comments about the approach the smaller-payroll Indians have taken to put a consistent winning team on the field.  “I think we’ve made consistent decisions over the course of the past few seasons to infuse young talent to position us to sustain that competitiveness….And had we not made some of those decisions, we’d be in a much worse position right now heading into 2021,” Antonetti said.

“I think we can afford any individual player.  It’s less about that.  It’s about how do we build a team that’s capable of contending? And how do we allocate resources in a way that gives us the best chance to win as many games as possible?”

While Lindor’s Cleveland status may be up in the air, one person who is expected to return next season is manager Terry Francona.  Due to both gastrointestinal problems and surgery to correct a blood-clotting problem, Francona missed 46 games during the regular and both of the Tribe’s playoff contests, with first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. stepping in as interim manager.  It isn’t yet known if bench coach Brad Mills or hitting coach Ty Van Burkleo will also be back in 2021 — both coaches opted out of the 2020 season.

In other notable news, Antonetti implied that Jose Ramirez would remain as a third baseman, which creates a few ripple effects for the Tribe.  For one, it will put the focus on acquiring a second baseman (whether re-signing Hernandez or adding someone else) this winter, rather than widening the search to third basemen and moving Ramirez back to the keystone.

It also means that top prospect Nolan Jones could move off third base and see time as a first baseman or corner outfielder.  “We have talked to him a little bit about the possibility of adding some positional versatility,” Chernoff said.  “He’s out at our fall programming in Arizona now and will mix in potentially at some other spots.”

Jones played shortstop in high school and shifted to third base in the minor leagues, though there have been long been whispers that first base or the outfield might be his eventual position.  A second-round pick in the 2016 draft, Jones has hit .283/.409/448 over 1453 minor league plate appearances, reaching the Double-A level in 2019.  The cancelled minor league season robbed Jones of his first taste of Triple-A ball, but he did work out at the Indians’ alternate training site all summer as part of the team’s 60-man player pool.

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