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A’s Acquire Chad Smith From Rockies

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The A’s have acquired righty Chad Smith from the Rockies, the team announced. Pitching prospect Jeff Criswell heads to Colorado in return. The A’s 40-man roster count is up to 38, while Colorado’s tally drops to 38.

Smith made his big league debut this past season. He was called upon 15 times in relief by Colorado skipper Bud Black, tossing 18 innings. Smith allowed 15 runs in that limited work. He had a slightly above-average 27.1% strikeout rate and a solid 11.6% swinging strike percentage, averaging 95.6 MPH on his sinker. Yet throwing strikes proved problematic, as he walked an untenable 17.6% of batters faced.

Originally a Marlins draftee, Smith has played parts of six seasons in the minors since coming out of Ole Miss in 2016. He’d spent the past two years at the upper levels of the Colorado organization, posting strong numbers for Triple-A Albuquerque in 2022. Smith worked to a 3.09 ERA in 35 innings for the Isotopes — a strong achievement in one of the more hitter-friendly environments in pro ball. He fanned over 29% of opponents while inducing ground-balls at a massive 60% clip in that time. Smith’s 8.1% walk rate there was solid, but he’s battled control problems in the minors earlier in his career.

The 27-year-old has less than one year of major league service time, and he still has two minor league options remaining. He’ll give the A’s an affordable depth option who could factor into the middle innings and/or pitch for Triple-A Las Vegas if he holds his spot on the 40-man roster.

In return, the Rockies add a 23-year-old arm to the farm system. Criswell was Oakland’s second-round draft choice in 2020 after three seasons at the University of Michigan. The right-hander briefly made it to Triple-A this past season, although he spent more of the year at High-A and in Double-A. Over three levels, he worked 118 1/3 innings of 4.03 ERA ball, striking out batters at a 23.8% clip against a 9% walk rate. The 6’4″ hurler was ranked the #16 prospect in a relatively shallow Oakland farm system by Baseball America midseason; he’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft at the end of next season if not added to the 40-man roster before then.

Brandon Nimmo Notes: Mets, Rockies

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Brandon Nimmo will make an in-person appearance at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday, adding to the intrigue surrounding his market.  As the top center fielder available, Nimmo has been publicly linked to the Mariners, Giants, Blue Jays, Rays, and Yankees, and probably several other unknown teams have also checked in on his availability.

Despite all this interest, it remains possible that Nimmo might remain in Queens, as Mets GM Billy Eppler told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reports that the Mets have continued to have “dialogue” with Nimmo and his representatives.  As the offseason got underway, reports surfaced that the Mets were prioritizing re-signing Nimmo and Edwin Diaz from their large pool of internal free agents.  Diaz, of course, re-signed with New York before the free agent market even officially opened, inking a five-year, $102MM deal to remain with the Mets.

Nimmo remains available almost a month after Diaz put pen to paper, though that isn’t surprising given the large amount of interest in Nimmo’s services, and the possibility that his next contract could top Diaz’s dollar figure.  Also, Scott Boras is Nimmo’s agent, and Boras usually encourages his clients to fully test the open market before considering circling back to their former teams.

Pitching has been the chief focus of the Mets’ offseason to date, with Diaz re-signed and now Justin Verlander agreeing to a deal with the Amazins today.  While the Mets continue to look at more rotation candidates, it stands to reason that with an ace pitcher and a star closer now checked off the winter to-do list, Eppler and company can now turn more attention to addressing center field.

The Rockies are one team that no longer seems to be pursuing Nimmo, as both Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette and Nick Groke of the Athletic feel the club isn’t a fit considering Nimmo’s desire for a long-term contract.  While the Rox are looking for outfielders, they would prefer a shorter-term option so that any of the club’s top outfield prospects (i.e. Zac Veen) don’t get blocked.  To this end, Cody Bellinger continues to be an Colorado’s radar, as Bellinger is reportedly only looking for a one-year contract in order to re-establish his market.

Angels Sign Carlos Estevez

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The Angels have continued their early-offseason activity, announcing the signing of reliever Carlos Estévez to a two-year, $13.5MM deal. The former Rockie receives $6.75MM in each of the next two seasons, the team disclosed.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic suggested earlier this afternoon the Halos were hoping to add to their late-inning mix. Within a few hours, they’ve finalized an agreement to add a power arm to Phil Nevin’s bullpen. Estévez is among the hardest throwers in the sport, and he’s coming off the best season of what has been an up-and-down MLB career.

Estévez began with a pair of seasons with an ERA north of 5.00. He took a step forward in 2019, working to a 3.75 ERA across 72 frames while striking out an above-average 26.3% of opponents. The native of the Dominican Republic looked like a potential high-leverage arm for the Rockies, but he stumbled to a 7.50 ERA during the abbreviated 2020 campaign thanks to massive home run issues.

The right-hander has gotten the longball in check over the past two seasons and performed at a generally solid level for skipper Bud Black. He worked to a 4.38 mark across 61 2/3 innings in 2021, then posted a career-low 3.47 ERA this past season. He’s struck out opponents at a roughly average clip in both seasons, although his swing-and-miss rate took a step back this year. Estévez generated swinging strikes on only 9% of his offerings in 2022, down almost two percentage points from the year prior and well below his 13.9% personal high in 2019.

Despite the dip in swinging strikes, the Halos will roll the dice on his high-octane arsenal. He averaged a blistering 97.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball, pushing into triple digits on occasion. Estévez has sat in the 97-98 MPH range every year of his major league career, and he’s relied heavily on that heater. He turned to his fastball just over 70% of the time, mixing in a changeup against left-handers and a slider to same-handed opponents.

That slider had excellent results in 2022, helping Estévez stifle right-handed hitters more generally. He held righties to a .204/.292/.306 line through 113 plate appearances. Left-handers only managed a .216/.287/.432 slash themselves, although that success was more built off an unsustainable .222 batting average on balls in play. Estévez had a below-average 19.7% strikeout rate against southpaws, but he punched out an impressive 26.5% of righties.

With his success against right-handers, Estévez should at least profile as a hard-throwing matchup option in the middle innings for Nevin. He’ll join Ryan Tepera and Jimmy Herget as the club’s top right-handed options, while Aaron Loup profiles as their best matchup southpaw. Tepera and Herget have more pedestrian velocity, and Estévez could take over the uncertain ninth inning mix in Orange County. Estévez only has 25 career saves, including just two this past season, but reports this offseason have suggested teams viewed him as a potential closer outside of the league’s most hitter-friendly home ballpark.

Estévez turns 30 later this month, so he was one of the younger free agent relief options available. He’ll strengthen a Halo bullpen that ranked 18th in ERA (3.97) and 22nd in strikeout percentage (22.2%) this past season. It’s certainly possible general manager Perry Minasian and his staff continue to look for ways to strengthen their late-inning mix. They’ve been active in an attempt to snap an eight-year postseason drought. They signed Tyler Anderson to a three-year, $39MM guarantee to bolster the rotation while swinging deals for Gio Urshela and Hunter Renfroe to strengthen the infield and outfield, respectively. Estévez becomes the latest in their pattern of acquisitions — a shorter-term investment for a notable but hardly overwhelming salary to build depth which their recent rosters have lacked.

MLBTR predicted a three-year, $21MM deal for Estévez at the start of the offseason. He lands a salary in that range annually, but the Halos keep their commitment to two seasons. Anaheim’s payroll now sits around $198MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s already above this past season’s $189MM Opening Day figure, which was a franchise-record outlay. Anaheim is also looking into ways to upgrade the middle infield, so it seems likely they’ll wind up above $200MM by the time the 2023 season rolls around. Their luxury tax commitments are now around $212MM, per Roster Resource, leaving approximately $21MM in breathing room before next year’s base tax threshold.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Angels and Estévez were in agreement on a deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report it was a two-year guarantee worth around $14MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rockies, Yankees, Braves Interested In Bryan Reynolds

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Bryan Reynolds’ trade request has sparked a new round of speculation that the Pirates might look to deal the outfielder, and any number of teams could be fits to make bids for the All-Star.  The Rockies are a new team with interest in Reynolds, according to The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders, while Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette hears that that from a source that the Yankees are still “very much” part of the mix after initially trying to land Reynolds both last winter and at the trade deadline.  The Braves are another team who has previously been linked to Reynolds on the rumor mill, and could re-emerge with “a strong, under-the-radar push for Reynolds this winter,” a source tells The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel.

The fit is apparent on any of these clubs, as a switch-hitting All-Star who is controlled through the 2025 season is naturally a good fit on almost any roster.  Reynolds could slide right into Atlanta’s left field position, teaming with Michael Harris and Ronald Acuna Jr. as one of baseball’s best starting outfields, and allowing the Braves to move Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario into part-time or DH duty (or possibly into trade bait, if any deals can be found).  Reynolds can likely move right into regular left field work for the Yankees, also moonlighting in center field to spell Harrison Bader once in a while, and Reynolds’ switch-hitting bat will help balance out a New York lineup that is heavy on right-handed hitters.

Colorado is the most likely of this trio to primarily keep Reynolds in center field, though Kris Bryant’s versatility allows the Rockies with some flexibility in figuring out their lineup.  The Rockies’ first goal will be to just get Bryant back onto the field after an injury-plagued 2022, but assuming that Bryant returns in good form, he can bounce around to either corner infield or outfield position, and even play the occasional game in center field.  Bryant played only left field and DH last year, and the Rox might opt to have Bryant and Reynolds in the corner outfield spots flanking Yonathan Daza and Randal Grichuk in center field.  Lineup balance would also be a factor for a mostly right-handed Colorado batting order.

Of course, it remains to be seen if the Pirates will trade Reynolds anywhere.  In response to Reynolds, the Bucs flatly stated that the trade request “will have zero impact on our decision-making this off-season or in the future.”  Pittsburgh’s asking price in any Reynolds trade has been said to be extremely high, as the Pirates seem to regard Reynolds as a building block rather than the latest player to be dealt away as part of their lengthy rebuild.  The two sides were even engaged in extension talks, though the lack of progress in these talks seems to have been a major reason why Reynolds asked to be dealt.

Back in August, Baseball America’s midseason organizational talent rankings put the Rockies (in 10th place) well ahead of both the Yankees (17th) and Braves (28th) in terms of farm system strength.  In theory, Colorado might have some advantage in a bidding war depending on the types of young talent the Pirates would want in return for Reynolds, though BA’s rankings do reflect players that still qualify as minor leaguers.  Not that Atlanta would move Harris or Spencer Strider for Reynolds anyway, but the Braves’ lower ranking reflects how those two young stars had graduated to the big leagues, thus removing two very prominent prospects from BA’s evaluation.  If the Pirates are hopeful of becoming competitive perhaps even as early as 2024, they could be more apt to ask for MLB-ready young players, which would help the Braves and Yankees in the Reynolds talks.

Minor League Moves: Hartlieb, Koch, Motter

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The Marlins added pitcher Geoff Hartlieb to a minor league deal, per Baseball America’s minor league transactions page. Harltlieb, 29 next week, pitched for Boston’s Triple-A affiliate in 2022, tossing 61 innings of 5.16 ERA ball. He appeared in the big leagues for the Pirates and briefly the Mets, throwing 66 1/3 innings across three seasons with a 7.46 ERA. He had a slightly below average 20.5% strikeout rate against a 14.4% walk rate.

Here’s some other minor league signings from around the sport:

  • Matt Koch has landed a deal with the Rockies for 2023. The 32-year-old pitched a handful of innings for the Mariners in 2022, but spent most of the year at Triple-A, tossing 38 1/3 innings of 3.05 ERA ball. He spent four seasons in Arizona, throwing 129 2/3 innings of 5.00 ERA ball across 16 starts and 20 relief appearances. He doesn’t walk many batters, but doesn’t strikeout many either, averaging just five per nine innings across his big league career.
  • The Braves re-signed Brooks Wilson and Alan Rangel to minor league deals. Wilson, 26, largely worked as a reliever at Double-A, tossing 44 innings with a 2.45 ERA while striking out 14.9 batters per nine innings. He made a handful of appearances at Triple-A, and should start the year there in 2023. Rangel, 25, made 26 starts at Double-A, working to a 5.81 ERA across 114 2/3 innings.
  • The White Sox brought back 30-year-old outfielder Mark Payton. He appeared in just eight games in the big leagues this year, tallying three hits in 25 plate appearances. He had a strong season at Triple-A, hitting .293/.369/.539 with 25 home runs. He’s yet to translate that to the majors though, and has a lifetime .164/.261/.180 line in 40 games for the Reds and White Sox since his 2020 debut.
  • Daniel Duarte re-signed with the Reds for 2023. Celebrating his 26th birthday tomorrow, Duarte spent most of the season on the injured list, but appeared in three games for the Reds in 2022, giving up three runs in 2 2/3 innings. At Triple-A, he worked to a 9.39 ERA across 7 2/3 innings.
  • The Athletics added right-handed pitcher Jasseel De La Cruz to a minor league pact. The 25-year-old was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Braves, and came up through their system as a solid pitching prospect. He struggled with injury in 2022, tossing just 26 1/3 innings in total, with 12 1/3 of those coming at Triple-A. There, he had an 8.03 ERA across seven appearances.
  • The Padres brought back Mexican pitcher Efrain Contreras on a minor league deal. The 22-year-old made 17 starts at High-A in 2022, working to a 5.74 ERA across 53 1/3 innings. While those numbers don’t look promising, he has averaged 10.2 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings across three seasons in the minor leagues.
  • Utilityman Taylor Motter has joined the Cardinals for the upcoming season. Motter, 32, has appeared in the big leagues for six different teams since 2016, hitting a combined .191/.262/.309 with ten home runs. He’s appeared at every defensive position outside of catcher and center field, but primarily handles the middle-infield spots. He made a handful of appearances for the Reds in 2022, but spent most of the year at Triple-A where he slashed .254/.357/.523 with 20 home runs for the Reds’ and Braves’ affiliates.
  • Puerto Rican shortstop Shawn Ross and the Pirates agreed to a minor league contract for the 2023 season. Ross, 22, played for Grand Junction in Independent ball in 2022, hitting 280/.408/.614 with 24 home runs.

Carlos Estevez Drawing Wide Interest In Free Agency

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As teams scour the market for bullpen help, Carlos Estévez is emerging as a popular target. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote earlier this week some teams view the right-hander as a potential closer and suggested he was finding a decent amount of interest. Will Sammon of the Athletic reported yesterday that seven teams had been in contact with his camp.

A career-long member of the Rockies, Estévez hit the open market for the first time this winter. He’s coming off a 3.47 ERA across 57 innings, a solid mark for a pitcher who spent half his games at Coors Field. The native of the Dominican Republic punched out a league average 23% of opponents against a slightly elevated 9.8% walk rate. Those are decent peripherals, although he only generated swinging strikes on a career-low 9% of his offerings.

While Estévez was a decent middle innings option in 2022, the appeal for teams lies more in the belief he could elevate his game outside the sport’s most hitter-friendly environment. He’s one of the league’s hardest throwers, averaging 97.5 MPH on a four-seam fastball that runs into triple digits at its best. He turned to that heater more than 70% of the time this past season, occasionally mixing in a slider against same-handed batters and a changeup against lefties. Each of his secondary offerings had success in their limited usage, and teams could certainly look to scale up how often he throws either pitch to pair with his high-velocity heater.

That kind of arsenal makes Estévez an intriguing target for teams, but his six-year tenure in Denver was mixed. He posted an ERA above 5.00 in three of his first four seasons. A 4.38 mark through 64 outings in 2021 was an improvement over much of his earlier work, but Estévez carried a career 4.85 ERA into this year. He posted a 5.17 ERA through this past season’s first half but was excellent down the stretch, limiting opponents to a .146/.206/.281 line while allowing fewer than two earned runs per nine innings after the All-Star Break.

Estévez has a bit of closing experience, having picked up 11 saves in 2021. Colorado has otherwise used him in setup work, affording him a fair number of high-leverage assignments going back to 2020. He had decent results against hitters from both sides of the plate in 2022, but his 26.5% strikeout rate against right-handed batters was far better than a 19.7% mark against southpaws. Clubs targeting him for a leverage role in the middle innings would presumably prefer to match him up against same-handed hitters when possible.

MLBTR forecasts a three-year, $21MM deal for Estévez, who turns 30 next month. Free agency has been slow to develop thus far, but there were a few early deals for relievers that possibly portend a strong market. The Mets made Edwin Díaz the first nine-figure reliever in league history, inking him to a five-year, $102MM pact shortly before free agency opened. The Padres followed up with a five-year guarantee of their own, retaining Robert Suarez for $46MM in a deal that allows him to opt out after 2025. Not long thereafter, Rafael Montero returned to the Astros on a three-year, $34.5MM contract that topped general expectations.

That series of early deals removed three of the top options from the market. Kenley Jansen and David Robertson are veterans with extensive closing experience, while Seth Lugo, Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino and Trevor May are among the productive setup types available from the right side.

Rockies Among Teams Interested In Cody Bellinger

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The Rockies are among the growing number of teams with some interest in recently non-tendered outfielder Cody Bellinger, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The 2017 NL Rookie of the Year and 2019 NL MVP has also been tied to the Blue Jays and Giants in the past few days.

While Bellinger, who has hit just .193/.256/.355 over the past two seasons after undergoing shoulder surgery in 2020, is an obvious reclamation project at this point, he’s also a fairly sensible fit for the Rockies. Colorado center fielders were among the least-productive groups in all of MLB in 2022, slashing .240/.298/.334. The resulting 65 wRC+ was the second-worst mark of any team’s center field group. Bellinger, of course, has been even worse than that tepid output in recent seasons, but any team signing him will be rolling the dice on a return to form — if not all the way back to his MVP-caliber numbers then at least to a once-again productive source of power.

The Rockies have a pretty clear hole in center field, where a combination of Yonathan Daza and Randal Grichuk would be slated to play as things currently stand. Grichuk posted a .259/.299/.425 (88 wRC+) batting line in 2022, falling well shy of the expectations the Rockies had when acquiring him from the Blue Jays.

Daza makes tons of contact and even topped a .300 batting average in 2022, but his .301/.349/.384 slash also draws attention to his complete dearth of power; Daza has just four homers in 844 Major League plate appearances, so any regression in the .347 BABIP he’s enjoyed over the past two seasons could result in far more problematic bottom-line numbers. Defensively, both Grichuk and Daza turned in sub-par marks for their glovework in center field.

Bellinger, for all his warts at the plate over the past two seasons, has maintained at least average defensive marks (well above-average, per Statcast) for his work in center field and provided value on the basepaths. He’d also give some needed balance to a lineup that presently skews very heavily toward the right side of the plate. Third baseman Ryan McMahon and right fielder/designated hitter Charlie Blackmon are the only two lefties assured of any playing time. Corner prospects Michael Toglia (switch-hitter) and Nolan Jones (lefty), the latter of whom was recently acquired in a trade with the Guardians, could also add some balance if they play their way into the mix.

All teams with interest in Bellinger will have to determine just how big a bet they feel comfortable placing on his ability to rebound. The Dodgers clearly weren’t comfortable with his potential arbitration price — MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected an $18.1MM salary — but Bellinger will still command a weighty salary if enough teams join the bidding. Agent Scott Boras recently told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that Bellinger is likely to sign a one-year deal, and the brevity of that term could also serve to drive up the eventual price point. (Teams are typically far more willing to make aggressive bids on one-year deals than on multi-year arrangements.)

The question of how high to bid is a particularly pertinent one for a Rockies team that is already projected to shatter its previous franchise record — even with just one small signing on the docket so far this winter. The Rockies’ previous record for Opening Day payroll came in 2019, when they spent $145.3MM. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects that they’re already up to $158.5MM. The Rockies will have to spend some money this offseason if they’re to have any hope of improving on another poor showing in 2022. Still, it’s fair to wonder whether the best use of their presumably limited resources will be to put down an eight-figure offer on a bounceback candidate, however high the ceiling may be.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. All players non-tendered go directly to free agency

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month.

Later Updates

  • The Reds have non-tendered righty Daniel Duarte and minor league outfielder Allan Cerda, taking both off the 40-man roster. Neither had been eligible for arbitration, but Cincinnati will send both into free agency without having to place either on waivers. Duarte made three relief appearances this year, his first as a big leaguer. Cerda, 23 next month, has yet to reach the majors. He hit .198/.350/.401 in 257 plate appearances in Double-A. Cincinnati also announced that six players designated for assignment earlier this week — Aristides Aquino, Jared Solomon, Kyle Dowdy, Derek Law, Art Warren and Jeff Hoffman — were all let go. Both Duarte and Cerda have already agreed to re-sign with Cincinnati on minor league deals, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (Twitter link).

Earlier Moves

  • The Braves freed a pair of 40-man roster spots by non-tendering minor league pitchers Brooks Wilson and Alan Rangel. Rangel spent most of this past season in Double-A, while Wilson didn’t pitch in 2022. Atlanta also announced that three players non-tendered earlier this week — Guillermo Heredia, Jackson Stephens and Silvino Bracho — have been let go.
  • The Giants have non-tendered relievers Mauricio Llovera and Alex Young and infielder Donovan Walton, clearing three spots on the 40-man roster. Walton was acquired from the Mariners midseason and hit .158/.179/.303 in 24 games with San Francisco. Young made 24 appearances after his contract was purchased from the Guardians. Llovera pitched 17 times after signing a minor league deal last offseason. Additionally San Francisco non-tendered seven players who’d been designated for assignment earlier this week: Drew Strotman, Meibrys Viloria, Colton Welker, Jarlin Garcia, Dom Nunez, Sam Delaplane and Jason Vosler.
  • The Pirates non-tendered lefty Manny Banuelos and catcher Tyler Heineman. Both had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Diamondbacks non-tendered righty Reyes Moronta, the team announced. The reliever posted a 4.50 ERA in 17 outings with the Snakes after being claimed off waivers from the Dodgers.
  • The Padres announced they’ve cut loose catcher Jorge Alfaro and righty Efrain Contreras. Alfaro had been projected at a $3.6MM salary this season, a hefty amount after a .246/.285/.383 season. Contreras hasn’t pitched in the majors; he had a tough year in High-A and loses his 40-man spot spot as a result.
  • The Cubs have non-tendered center fielder Rafael Ortega, as well as minor league pitchers Brailyn Marquez and Alexander Vizcaino. Ortega has seen a decent amount of action the last two years and had a respectable .241/.331/.358 line through 371 plate appearances this past season. Nevertheless, the Cubs opted against a salary in the $1.7MM range for next year. Marquez has been a top pitching prospect but has battled injury issues for the past few years. Vizcaino was part of the Anthony Rizzo trade with the Yankees but didn’t pitch in the minors this year.
  • The Nationals non-tendered righty Tommy Romero. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week. Washington confirmed the previously-reported decisions to part with Luke Voit and Erick Fedde.
  • The Brewers cut loose right-handers Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave and Luis Perdomo. All three were part of Milwaukee’s middle innings mix, with Gustave’s 45 appearances the most among that group. Gott had a 4.15 ERA over 45 2/3 innings after signing a free agent deal last offseason.
  • The Rockies non-tendered infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson, the club announced. The 28-year-old had been projected for a $2.1MM salary. A speedster with the ability to play anywhere up the middle, Hampson just hasn’t hit at the big league level. He’s coming off a .211/.287/.307 showing through 226 plate appearances.
  • The Mets announced they’ve non-tendered Sean Reid-Foley and confirmed they’re letting go of Dominic Smith, who’s non-tender was previously reported. This year, Reid-Foley made seven MLB appearances, tossing 10 innings of relief.
  • The Dodgers have non-tendered infielder Edwin Rios and utilityman Luke Williams, per a club announcement. Los Angeles also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of former MVP Cody Bellinger. Rios has shown some offensive promise in the past and owns a .212/.299/.492 line through 112 big league games. He missed a good chunk of this past season with a hamstring strain. Williams was claimed off waivers from the Marlins recently; the Dodgers could look to bring him back on a minor league deal.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. There will be a frenzy of non-tenders and trades today, but also some signings.

For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.

One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…

Latest

  • The Tigers announced agreement on a deal with outfielder Austin Meadows. Financial terms are undisclosed. Meadows was projected for a $4MM salary. He’s coming off an injury-plagued first season in Detroit but is arbitration eligible twice more. [UPDATE: Meadows signed for $4.3MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.]
  • The Braves avoided arbitration with Mike Soroka on a $2.8MM contract, the club announced. It’s the same salary he’s made in each of the past two seasons, which is typical for an arbitration-eligible player who didn’t see any MLB action but was nevertheless tendered a contract. Soroka hasn’t pitched since 2020 on account of a pair of Achilles ruptures and some late-season elbow soreness, but he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. He’s arbitration eligible once more next winter.

Earlier Deals

  • The Pirates and infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar agreed at $1.525MM, per Murray. Andujar was claimed off waivers from the Yankees in September.
  • The Padres announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with left-hander Jose Castillo. The terms have not been disclosed.
  • The Diamondbacks announced they’ve agreed to a deal with reliever Cole Sulser. Financial terms haven’t been disclosed, but Sulser has been projected at $1MM. Arizona recently claimed him off waivers from the Marlins.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Adrian Sampson agreed to a $1.9MM salary, while fellow right-hander Rowan Wick will take home a $1.55MM salary in 2023, according to Jordan Bastion of MLB.com. Sampson broke out in 2022, finishing with a 3.11 ERA across 104 1/3 innings. Wick tossed 64 innings of relief, finishing up with a 4.22 ERA.
  • The Yankees and right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a salary of $4.1MM, per Feinsand. Trivino had been a solid reliever for Oakland over the past couple of years but struggled to a 6.47 ERA with them in 2022. He was dealt to the Yankees and then righted the ship with a 1.66 ERA the rest of the way.
  • The Rockies and Brent Suter avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3MM salary, per Murray. Suter was claimed off waivers from the Brewers earlier today.
  • The Brewers and righty Matt Bush have agreed at $1.85MM, per Murray. Bush came over from the Rangers in a deadline deal. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the deal and a 4.30 after.
  • The Marlins and Dylan Floro are in agreement on a contract for 2023, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. He’ll make $3.9MM, Mish reports. Floro tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2022 with a 3.02 ERA.
  • The Brewers and right-hander Adrian Houser agreed on a $3.6MM salary, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The ground ball specialist saw his ERA jump from 3.22 in 2021 to 4.73 this year as his ground ball rate dropped from 59% to 46.7%. He’s likely the club’s sixth starter going into the winter and could jump into the rotation if someone gets injured.
  • The Phillies and right-hander Sam Coonrod have agreed on a salary of $775K, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He posted a 4.04 ERA in 2021 but was limited to just 12 2/3 innings this year due to a shoulder strain.
  • The Tigers and left-hander Tyler Alexander agreed on a salary of $1.875MM, per Murray. Alexander got into 27 games in 2022, 17 of those being starts. His 4.81 ERA was certainly on the high side, but he had a 3.81 in 2021.
  • The Yankees and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6M salary. You can read more about that here.
  • The Braves and left-hander Tyler Matzek avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal. You can read more about that here.
  • The Giants and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.1MM deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. He first qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and earned $3.7MM in 2022. He took a step back at the plate this year with a line of .214/.305/.392 but still provided value with his glovework.

Rockies Extend Tyler Kinley

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3:47pm: It’s actually a $6.25MM total for the three years, Alexander clarifies, noting that the $750K buyout on the 2026 option is part of that sum. Kinley will be paid $1.2MM in 2023, $1.3MM in 2024 and $3MM in 2025. The 2026 option is valued at $5MM and comes with a $750K buyout. The 2025 and 2026 seasons contain escalators and incentives based on games finished.

2:34pm: The Rockies announced Friday that they’ve agreed to a three-year contract extension with reliever Tyler Kinley, spanning the 2023-25 seasons. The contract also contains a club option for the 2026 season. Kinley underwent elbow surgery in July that was expected to sideline him for around one year. Ari Alexander of KPRC first reported the agreement, adding that it’ll guarantee Kinley $7MM — $6.25MM in total salary from 2023-25, plus a $5MM option with a $750K buyout.

Tyler Kinley

Kinley, 32 in January, appeared to be in the midst of a breakout season in Colorado prior to his injury. In 24 innings, he held opponents to just two earned runs on 21 hits and six walks with 27 strikeouts. That was good for a 0.75 ERA, 27% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate, and Kinley’s sky-high 16.7% swinging-strike rate seemed to portend the potential for even more strikeouts.

The hard-throwing Kinley, whose fastball averaged just shy of 96 mph in 2022, has steadily improved upon his command each season since 2019, dropping his walk rate from a ghastly 16.3% all the way to this year’s 6% mark. Unsurprisingly, the improved command has radically bolstered his results.

Whether Kinley can sustain that level of command remains to be seen. In addition to the general uncertainty that comes with any elbow surgery for a pitcher, Kinley’s 57% first-pitch strike rate in 2022 was actually worse than the 58.8% mark he posted back in 2019, when he walked more than 16% of his opponents. Sustaining such massive gains in walk rate while getting ahead in the count at a lesser rate than when he posted one of baseball’s highest walk rates will be a challenge.

Even if Kinley is able to sustain most of the improvements in his walk rate, there’s still surely some regression in store. The right-hander excelled at limiting home runs in 2019-20, but he didn’t yield a single long ball in this season’s 24 innings. It’s not realistic to expect any pitcher to completely avoid the home run ball, and even a regression to the strong 0.86 HR/9 mark Kinley yielded in 2019-20 would cause a notable uptick in his otherwise pristine ERA.

There’s obviously great risk in extending a 32-year-old reliever — particularly one who’ll miss at least half of the contract’s first season while recovering from elbow surgery. That said, the $7MM term of the three-year deal presents fairly minimal risk. Kinley would’ve been arbitration-eligible for the contract’s first two seasons, with the third year and the potential club option season representing would-be free agent campaigns.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $1.3MM salary for Kinley in 2023, and if he returned in good health late in the summer, he’d likely have earned a modest bump on that number. If we assume his final two arb seasons would’ve cost something in the neighborhood of $3MM combined, the Rox are effectively paying $4MM for the right to control his first two free-agent years — only one of which is actually guaranteed to him. Viewed through that lens, the Rox are effectively guaranteeing Kinley’s final two arb seasons for the right to pay him about $8.25MM in his first two free-agent seasons. If Kinley is able to emerge as even a solid middle reliever, that’ll be a justifiable price tag. If not, the sting will be generally minimal, given the affordable nature of the guarantee.

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