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AL West Notes: Astros, Iwakuma, Angels

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A few notes from the American League West:

  • With the unreliable Tony Sipp representing their only established left-handed reliever, there’s an argument that the Astros could stand to add another southpaw to their bullpen. But, as he looks to improve the reigning champions’ relief corps, general manager Jeff Luhnow isn’t discriminating based on handedness (Twitter links via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). “It’s really about finding the best upgrades to our pitching staff we can find to give us depth and quality we need to get through long season,” said Luhnow, whose team’s righty-heavy bullpen actually held its own against lefty-swingers in 2017. Luhnow noted, though, that the market is currently “stalled,” which suggests nothing is imminent on Houston’s end.
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told KJR-AM this week that right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma won’t be ready to pitch again until late May or early June, per Greg Johns of MLB.com (Twitter link). Iwakuma, who re-signed with the Mariners on a minor league contract on Wednesday, threw just 31 innings in 2017 as he dealt with shoulder problems. The 36-year-old underwent surgery in late September.
  • Angels left-handed pitching prospect Nate Smith will miss the 2018 season after undergoing anterior capsule surgery in September, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. The 26-year-old Smith is now facing a 12- to 14-month recovery period, which is particularly unfortunate for a pitcher whom injuries limited to a mere 15 innings in 2017. For now, MLB.com ranks Smith as the Angels’ ninth-best prospect.

Shohei Ohtani Rumors: Saturday

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The latest on game-changing Japanese ace/slugger Shohei Ohtani, whom the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters posted on Friday and who’s at the beginning of a three-week window to work out an agreement with a major league team:

  • The Ohtani sweepstakes is seemingly on the verge of picking up in earnest, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that the 23-year-old CAA Sports client will meet with various teams in Los Angeles next week (Twitter link). The Mariners are among those clubs, suggests Passan, who relays that team brass has asked multiple members of its roster to clear their schedules for a potential meeting with Ohtani. That comes on the heels of general manager Jerry Dipoto’s revelation last week that the Mariners are preparing an aggressive push press for Ohtani. “We’re not joking around. We’re bringing the big guns,” declared Dipoto (Twitter link via Greg Johns of MLB.com).
  • Ohtani’s camp will notify certain teams this weekend if they’ll remain in the mix to sign him, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Padres are hopeful they’ll advance to the next round. “As a group, we’re prepared, and I think he’s a player that obviously we’ve scouted and have history with,” GM A.J. Preller told Lin. “You try to see what the fits are and why he’s a good fit for us and why we’re a good fit for him. We’re kind of down the path of doing that work.”
  • The Red Sox will also chase Ohtani, per president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald via text: “Would acknowledge our interest. Beyond that, all would be confidential.” Ohtani joining Chris Sale and David Price would make for a rather enticing top of the rotation, needless to say, and he could also factor in as a designated hitter for a Boston club that received uninspiring production there last season in the first year of the post-David Ortiz era.
  • Count the World Series-winning Astros as yet another team that will court Ohtani. Owner Jim Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that the Astros will “put a full-court press on” to sign Ohtani, adding that they’ll “probably send the A-team out there.” He also noted that the Astros “need a left-handed DH, so there you have it.” In addition to having the ability to demonstrate his offensive prowess in Houston, Ohtani would add another potential front-end starter to a rotation that already includes past Cy Young winners Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel.
  • While the Rays are obvious long shots to land Ohtani, they have an advantage over other teams with the presence of two-way prospect Brendan McKay, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times observes. McKay, the fourth overall pick in last year’s draft, could be both a pitcher and a hitter in the majors. “We’re hopeful (McKay) can do it,” Rays GM Erik Neander said. “We want to give him the opportunity to do it because he’s shown he deserves that opportunity and we don’t want to take that away from him prematurely.” Citing McKay’s presence, the Rays will emphasize to Ohtani that they’re open-minded about developing and employing a two-way player, per Topkin, who also expects them to pitch Tampa Bay’s “relaxed” lifestyle during the recruiting process.
  • The Marlins, MLB’s other Florida-based organization, are unlikely to make an effort for Ohtani, Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun Sentinel writes. The cost-cutting Marlins are wary of the financial commitment it would take to reel in Ohtani, who won’t require much from a salary standpoint but will cost a $20MM posting fee. While that looks like a relatively minor amount for a possible franchise face like Ohtani, the Marlins simply aren’t in position to fork it over in their current financial state, Healey explains.
  • While the Indians only have $10K in international bonus pool space, they’re expected to partake in the Ohtani derby, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. He’d slot into an already loaded rotation, one which features two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco; additionally, Ohtani could DH for a team at risk of losing Carlos Santana in free agency.
  • All things considered, the Yankees may be the favorites for Ohtani. There’s a general “fear” coming from other franchises regarding the Bronx Bombers, tweets Passan, given the talent on hand, the market they’re in and their strong relationship with CAA Sports. They also have the second-biggest international bonus pool.

Astros Non-Tender Mike Fiers

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The Astros have non-tendered righty Mike Fiers, per a team announcement. The team has tendered contracts to all other eligible players, while Fiers will head to the open market.

This move was widely expected, though there seemed to be some possibility that the team would instead find another organization interested in Fiers via trade. Fiers was projected by MLBTR and Matt Swartz to earn $5.7MM in his second (and second-to-last) season of arbitration eligibility.

Fiers, 32, has had some dazzling high points — including a 2015 no-hitter — but has been increasingly prone to the long ball over the past three seasons. He surrendered 1.88 home runs per nine in 2017 while also posting a career-high 3.6 BB/9 walk rate. Perhaps it isn’t surprising, then, that he ended the year with an ugly 5.22 ERA over 153 1/3 innings.

While Fiers had a nice stretch of good outings in the middle of the year, briefly losing his rotation spot before being pushed back in due to injuries, he finished poorly and did not earn a chance to play in the Astros’ successful run through the postseason. Of course, in other ways Fiers was much the same pitcher as ever. He posted typical velocity and swinging-strike (9.1%) numbers along with a 42.9% groundball rate that sits above his personal average.

It still seems likely that there’ll be fairly robust interest in Fiers in free agency. Even if expectations aren’t all that high, he has turned in 88 starts over the past three seasons and seems a reasonable bet to help stabilize the back of a rotation.

Crasnick’s Latest: Power Bats, Jay, Miller, Gattis, Slow Offseason

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A record 117 players hit 20 or more homers in the 2017 season, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick writes in his latest column, and 16 of those players are now free agents. Crasnick speaks to a number of high-ranking execs, including Indians GM Mike Chernoff, Cardinals president John Mozeliak, Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski, Angels GM Billy Eppler and Rays senior VP Chaim Bloom about baseball’s home run boom and whether it’ll dramatically impact the value of home runs in free agency.

“We all follow the trends,” says Chernoff. “At the same time, when we are actually evaluating players, we’re just looking at overall run production and prevention on both sides of the ball, offensively and defensively.” Bloom, meanwhile, suggested that his Rays will always seek value in areas of the market that may experience some depreciation in value. As Crasnick notes, that may partially explain why Tampa Bay swatted the sixth-most homers in baseball in 2017 but finished 22nd in OBP. It’s an interesting look at a some potential changes to the mechanics of player valuation that is packed with quotes from the executives who will ultimately have final say over those decisions.

A bit more from Crasnick…

  • The Mariners are still involved in the market for outfielder Jon Jay, Crasnick reports on Twitter. Indeed, Seattle is a “prime player” for the veteran, who doesn’t deliver much power at all but owns a lifetime .288 batting average and has long been a significant on-base threat. As a left-handed hitter who can play some center field, Jay would likely fit well on quite a few rosters, so it stands to reason that he’d field interest from other quarters.
  • Crasnick tweets that if the Rays don’t find a trade partner for infielder Brad Miller, they expect to tender him a contract at tomorrow evening’s 8pm ET deadline. Miller broke out with a 30-homer campaign in 2016 but was plagued by core muscle injury in 2017 and slumped to a .201/.327/.337 slash in 407 plate appearances. Crasnick’s tweet implies, of course, that the Rays do intend to shop Miller around to see if anyone has interest in the slugging utilityman, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to earn $4.4MM in arbitration this offseason.
  • Also on the topic of non-tenders, Crasnick notes in the above column that the Astros are likely to tender a contract to slugger Evan Gattis tomorrow. MLBTR listed Gattis as a potential non-tender/trade candidate due to his projected $6.6MM salary, some diminished productivity and the fact that backup catcher/designated hitter are among the few clear areas for improvement on a stacked Astros roster. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart suggested the same this week, but Crasnick and Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle both report that indications are that Gattis is not at risk of a non-tender.
  • We’d also recommend circling back to Crasnick’s interesting recent column regarding the slow pace of transactions this winter. Though time has passed since it was written, we still have yet to see any truly significant transactions. Crasnick advances eight theories for why this particular market has been so sluggish — all of which, no doubt, are playing some role in the matter. Beyond the oft-discussed factors of Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani, several of Crasnick’s points focus on this year’s particular class of free agents — many of whom share Scott Boras as an agent and others of whom are somewhat bunched up in a few positions. Luxury tax considerations, the anticipated super-class of 2018 free agents and a relative lack of selling organizations are among the other factors that have conspired to create drag, Crasnick posits.

Astros Likely To Shop Mike Fiers

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With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports that the Astros will “surely attempt to trade” right-hander Mike Fiers between now and that 8pm ET deadline on Friday.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the 32-year-old Fiers to take home a $5.7MM salary in what would be his second trip through the arbitration process. Any club that acquired Fiers would be picking up his rights not only for the 2018 campaign but also for the 2019 season, as he’ll be arbitration-eligible once more next offseason. Of course, the fact that Fiers is already a non-tender candidate speaks to the fact that he’s coming off a down season, and he’d need to enhance his stock with a solid 2018 performance for those 2019 rights to even come into play.

Fiers served as a useful rotation piece for the Astros and Brewers in 2015-16, working to a combined 4.07 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 with a roughly 40 percent ground-ball rate in 349 innings. The righty traded some of his 2015 strikeouts for improved walk and ground-ball tendencies in 2016 and experienced generally useful results in both years. The 2017 campaign saw the return of Fiers’ ability to miss bats (8.6 K/9) but also some control issues (3.6 BB/9) — this time paired with a best-yet 42.9 percent grounder rate.

Home runs have long been an issue for Fiers, a righty who works with a four-seamer that averages just under 90 mph, but that issue was more pronounced than ever in 2017, as Fiers yielded an average 1.88 HR/9 in this past season’s 153 1/3 innings. The resulting 5.22 ERA wasn’t pretty, though an uptick in home runs plagued pitchers across the league this season as pundits and players alike speculated on the possibility of some alterations to the composition of the baseball.

For a team that believes Fiers’ homer spike can be managed in 2018-19, he could represent a durable option to fill out the back of a rotation. Fiers has made at least 28 starts per season in each of the past three seasons and has never been on the Major League disabled list. While Fiers isn’t teeming with upside, he’s been a solid two-win pitcher in seasons past and could provide solid value if he can return to that form.

Considering the fact that reclamation projects on the free-agent market are oftentimes priced similarly to Fiers’ arbitration projection — Tyson Ross and Derek Holland each made $6MM on one-year deals last offseason, for instance — and the fact that Fiers has a remaining year of control beyond ’18, it’s not hard to see a club rolling the dice on a low-cost trade. If Houston isn’t able to find a taker, Fiers could be non-tendered and join what has been a bizarrely stagnant free-agent market to date.

Market Chatter: Stanton, Colome, Minor, Cobb, Markakis

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We heard somewhat varied reports yesterday on whether there was any real connection between the Red Sox and Marlins on Giancarlo Stanton. Today, there’s clear indication that the sides aren’t firmly engaged on the slugger: per Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal (subscription link), the teams have not engaged on the matter since the GM Meetings. It certainly sounds as if Boston is not actively pursuing Stanton, though it’s always possible that could change if his market continues to drag — which remains a distinct possibility. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Marlins haven’t set any sort of deadline for teams to submit their best offers, so perhaps Boston could reengage if their reported talks for White Sox star Jose Abreu do not prove fruitful.

Here’s more chatter on the trade and free agent markets:

  • It seems the Rays are at least entertaining the possibility of dealing closer Alex Colome, per Morosi (Twitter link), with “active discussions” said to be ongoing with multiple rival organizations. The Cardinals have “sustained interest” in Colome — a connection we first heard about two weeks back. Colome’s less-than-dominant 2017 campaign has likely cabined his trade value somewhat, though teams will still no doubt see significant value in the hard-throwing, high-leverage reliever. MLBTR projects that Colome will earn $5.5MM in his first of three potential trips through arbitration.
  • The Astros can now be added to the list of teams with some interest in Mike Minor, according to a report from ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle previously explained that the southpaw would make for an interesting target for the ’Stros; we have also heard of prior interest from the Mets, who Olney also names. There’ll likely be quite a few other teams poking around on his market, too, after a high-quality season in which Minor bounced back from shoulder problems. As a lefty with a starter’s arsenal, Minor could be awfully handy on plenty of rosters, though his contractual upside will likely be limited by his health history.
  • Free agent righty Alex Cobb, meanwhile, still seems to be facing a fairly wide-open market. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that “a lot” of teams have interest, but that there’s “nothing close” to coming together at the moment. Quite a few organizations could end up having interest in Cobb, who certainly has some earning upside beyond the four-year, $48MM contract that MLBTR predicts he’ll land. Cobb turned down a qualifying offer from the Rays, so the draft compensation he’ll return to the organization will depend upon whether or not he’s able to surpass our best guess and earn a $50MM guarantee.
  • The Blue Jays held talks with the Braves regarding veteran outfielder Nick Markakis, Morosi tweets. But the chatter has “failed to advance” and it’s not clear whether the sides will pick things up. Markakis has continued to put up roughly league average offensive numbers, compensating for a lack of pop with solid on-base numbers, but isn’t much of a value on a $10.5MM salary. Presumably he’d have provided the Jays with a platoon piece for their outfield mix, but it stands to reason that the organization is looking to spend a bit less than that — particularly given that it has other, greater priorities.

AL West Notes: Astros, Gattis, Rangers, Ohtani, Ramirez, Angels

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In his latest Astros inbox, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart explores a number of topics pertaining to Houston’s 2018 roster and their current offseason plans. McTaggart suggests that left-handed relief will be a top priority for the ’Stros this winter and that Jake Marisnick will return for the 2018 season as the team’s primary fourth outfielder even with Derek Fisher also in the picture. McTaggart fields multiple questions on a loaded Astros rotation that will be anchored by Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton, leaving just one spot for Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock, Mike Fiers, Joe Musgrove and Francis Martes. Of the bunch, he suggests that Peacock and McHugh could both see time in the fifth spot, while Musgrove could be shifted to a more permanent ’pen role and Martes could return to Triple-A to continue developing as a starter.

More on the Astros and the division…

  • With Evan Gattis projected to earn $6.6MM in 2017 and reported interest from the Astros in Jonathan Lucroy, McTaggart also notes within that inbox column that Houston could either non-tender Gattis or try to trade him in advance of Friday’s 8pm ET non-tender deadline. Gattis posted a quality .263/.311/.457 slash in 325 PAs this season but also threw out just four of 39 potential base thieves this season (though he was 13-for-28 in that regard in 2016). With few obvious areas for an upgrade, Houston could conceivably look to add a more significant bat at DH and pursue a backup catching option that is cheaper and/or comes with a better defensive reputation. MLBTR listed Gattis as a potential non-tender candidate this week.
  • Now that the Rangers have signed righty Doug Fister, they’re likely to turn their focus to the bullpen for the time being, tweets MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. That’s not to say Texas is through adding to its rotation, but Jon Daniels and his staff will certainly want to see how the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes plays out before determining their next move on the rotation front. In a separate column, Sullivan reports that the Rangers have submitted their response to agent Nez Balelo’s seven-point memo requesting information to help Ohtani make his decision. Daniels tells Sullivan that the Rangers have been following Ohtani for years and awaiting this opportunity, adding that he “feels strongly” about what the Rangers organization has to offer the 23-year-old star. If Texas is ultimately able to add Ohtani, it stands to reason that the team might then choose to spend more aggressively on a non-rotation need. Speculating further, if Ohtani lands elsewhere, that could conceivably cause Texas to more aggressively pursue a big-name rotation upgrade.
  • The elbow strain that ended the season of Angels right-hander J.C. Ramirez was a small tear in his ulnar collateral ligament, writes Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, but Ramirez received positive news on that front this week. Ramirez has already undergone stem cell treatment, and a series of ultrasound exams has left doctors confident that he can avoid surgery. He’ll do some light throwing next week, in fact, and GM Billy Eppler called the recent test results “one of the more positive” outcomes the team could’ve had.

Rangers Claim Juan Centeno From Astros

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The Rangers announced that they’ve claimed catcher Juan Centeno off waivers from the Astros. Centeno was placed on outright waivers last week.

The 28-year-old Centeno spent some time as a backup catcher with Houston this past season and logged more significant time with the Twins a year prior. Overall, he’s batted .254/.306/.382 with five homers, 12 doubles and a triple in his past 249 big league plate appearances. Centeno has struggled to throw out runners in his career (just 13 percent in the Majors) and has graded out as a poor pitch-framer, per Baseball Prospectus.

That said, the Rangers have a thin catching corps at the moment, with Robinson Chirinos and Brett Nicholas representing the only two catchers on the 40-man roster with big league experience. Well-regarded youngster Jose Trevino was added to the 40-man roster last week as well. Centeno is out of minor league options, so he’ll have to either break camp with the club as the primary backup to Chirinos or once again be exposed to waivers if the Rangers hope to keep him in the organization.

Astros Place Juan Centeno On Outright Waivers

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The Astros have placed catcher Juan Centeno on outright waivers in order to remove him from the team’s 40-man roster, according to a report from Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle.

Centeno is still on the waiver wire, but Kaplan writes that Houston is hoping he’ll clear and remain with the organization at Triple-A. It’ll be his choice whether to do so, as he was previously outrighted by the Twins in 2016.

With a fully-stocked MLB roster, the ’Stros were likely always going to need to clear some space before potentially adding players from outside the organization. The 28-year-old Centeno was particularly vulnerable given the presence of Brian McCann, Evan Gattis, and Max Stassi.

Centeno has seen big league action in each of the past five seasons, carrying a composite .235/.289/.339 slash line through 315 plate appearances with four different organizations. The left-handed hitter spent most of 2017 at Triple-A, hitting .311/.354/.383 in hist 257 plate appearances

Players Added To The 40-Man Roster

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As detailed earlier this morning at MLBTR, the deadline for Major League clubs to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft is tonight. Because of that, there will be literally dozens of moves between now and 8pm ET as teams make final determinations on who to protect and who to risk losing in next month’s Rule 5 draft. This process will lead to smaller-scale trades, waiver claims and DFAs, but for some clubs the only necessary moves will simply be to select the contracts of the prospects they wish to place on the 40-man roster. We’ll track those such moves in this post…

Click to check in on other teams that have selected players to their 40-man rosters …

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