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Kyle Tucker On Extension: Some Talks But No Offer

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Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker addressed the state of his extension talks with the club this week, discussing the matter with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He said the two sides have had some talks but “not a hard offer or anything like that.” The Excel Sports Management client added that he’s open to those discussions, “whether it happens now or a little later.”

Tucker, 27, has established himself as one of the better all-around contributors in the game. Over the past three seasons, he’s hit 89 home runs and swiped 69 bases. Only 19 players in the league had more homers in that stretch and none of those had more steals than Tucker. His .278/.353/.517 batting line in that time has led to a wRC+ of 138, 16th among qualified hitters in that span. He’s also received solid grades for his glovework in right field.

Astros general manager Dana Brown has been candid about his desire to sign extensions with the club’s players ever since getting the job last year. Around the time of those statements, they locked up Cristian Javier with a five-year, $64MM deal. More recently, they got a new deal done with José Altuve, a five-year, $125MM pact.

There’s still time to get something done with Tucker, as he’s under club control through the end of the 2025 season. However, his earning power will only increase as he moves closer to that date. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows just two position players with between four and five years of service time have received nine-figure extensions since the start of 2015. Bryan Reynolds got exactly $100MM from the Pirates while Matt Olson got $168MM from Atlanta.

When looking at players between five and six years of service time, it clearly takes a lot more money to keep them from getting to the open market. Byron Buxton got $100MM guaranteed but with loads of extensions. Xander Bogaerts got $120MM from the Red Sox in 2019, which was generally seen a team-friendly deal. Nolan Arenado got $234MM from the Rockies while each of Rafael Devers and Francisco Lindor got over $300MM, landing at $313.5MM and $341MM, respectively.

If the Astros are motivated to get a deal done, it would be in their interest to do it sooner rather than later. Barring an unexpected swoon in performance or an injury-marred campaign in 2024, Tucker’s price will only rise over the next year or two. Based on Tucker’s framing of the current state of affairs, it doesn’t seem like anything is close to being completed.

They also wanted to get something done around this time last year but reportedly faced notable gaps in those talks and didn’t seal the deal. Tucker went on to have another great year and bumped his 2024 salary to $12MM, avoiding arbitration last month. Brown recently indicated that the club will make Tucker an offer at some point, but time will tell if it will be enough to get his signature on the dotted line.

The Astros are in uncharted waters when it comes to their finances. Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their highest Opening Day payroll as $188MM in 2021. This year, Roster Resource has them way up at $240MM. Their competitive balance tax figure is also high for them, currently at $255MM, well beyond the base threshold of $237MM. They have never paid the tax before, having only gone over in 2020 when the taxes were waived during the shortened season.

Going forward, there’s a bit more room but the slate isn’t exactly clean. They already have over $100MM committed to 2025, 2026 and 2027, thanks to big contracts for Altuve, Javier, Yordan Álvarez and Josh Hader. Next year’s budget is at $117MM but arbitration raises for Tucker and Framber Valdez could add around $40MM to that, plus raises for players like Chas McCormick, Jeremy Peña and others. Ryan Pressly also has a $14MM option that vests if he makes 50 appearances this year.

The next two years will see players like Tucker, Valdez, Pressly, Alex Bregman and Justin Verlander reach the end of their contracts. Those expiring deals may open up some spending room for the club but will also require them to produce replacements for those key players, which may involve signing free agents. How they look to navigate that double-edged sword should have a notable impact on the future of the club.

Justin Verlander, J.P. France Behind Schedule Due To Shoulder Issues

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Astros right-hander Justin Verlander is a few weeks behind his normal Spring Training schedule due to a shoulder issue. He spoke to members of the media about it today, with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com relaying video on X of the veteran discussing the situation. General manager Dana Brown also relayed that righty J.P. France is dealing with shoulder inflammation, though Brown isn’t especially worried since both pitchers are playing catch. “If they were shut down, it would be more concerning,” Brown said, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle.

“I’m a little bit behind schedule right now, had a little hiccup early on that’s resolved itself but I have to be really cautious with how I’m building up,” Verlander said. “I guess my body doesn’t respond the same at 40 as it does at 25. So, you know, I’m a couple weeks behind.” When asked to elaborate on the hiccup, he continued: “When I first started playing catch, I usually shut it down for a while. This time, when I shut it down and picked the ball back up, my shoulder didn’t feel so great, so kind of had to take a step back and kind of just really be diligent about my buildup.” When asked about Opening Day, he said it would depend on how things go in the next few weeks.

It seems like the concern is fairly minor at this point, though it’s less than ideal for the club that a couple members of its rotation mix are already dealing with issues just as camp is opening. The Astros are already set to open the season with Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García on the injured list, with both of those pitchers having undergone significant surgeries last year. Brown told MLB Network Radio earlier this week that those two guys are on track for returns in the second half, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

Without McCullers or García, Houston’s rotation mix would project to be Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown, with one spot available for someone like France, José Urquidy or Brandon Bielak. If Verlander and/or France end up requiring a stint on the injured list to start the year, everyone would be moved up a peg or two on the chart.

Verlander, who turns 41 next week, also dealt with a shoulder issue last spring while with the Mets. At the end of March, he was placed on the IL with a teres major strain and didn’t make his season debut until May. He was ultimately able to make 27 starts on the year between the Mets and Astros after a midseason trade, but with diminished stuff from his 2022 Cy Young-winning year. His ERA went from 1.75 to 3.22 and his strikeout rate dropped from 27.8% to 21.5% with the velo on all his pitches slightly lower as well. He did seem to get better as the season went along, however, with a 3.60 ERA and 19.7% strikeout rate in the first half compared to a 2.92 ERA and 23% strikeout rate in the second.

France, 29 in April, tossed 136 1/3 innings last year with a 3.83 ERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 42.8% ground ball rate. He’s obviously less essential to the club’s rotation than Verlander, not even guaranteed a roster spot since he has options. But every club has to deal with injuries and reach into their depth at some point during the year. He would have been a candidate to step up if Verlander needed to miss time but that could be in jeopardy if France is himself delayed.

Brown has frequently stated that he’s always looking to add pitching and made similar comments today, with video relayed by McTaggart. “I’m always in the business of trying to add starter depth. I think the season, like I said before, it’s 162 games. If you get a situation where you can trade for a starter or if you can sign a starter, I think you should do it if it makes sense budget wise and all that. But at the end of the day, I’m always in the market for pitching. I’ve said that since day one. I don’t think you can have enough pitching in 162 games.”

The Astros are in unprecedented territory in terms of their payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their highest Opening Day payroll was $188MM in 2021. Roster Resource pegs them at $240MM for this year and also has their competitive balance tax figure at $255MM. They have never paid the tax before, as they only time they went over was in 2020, when the payments were waived in the shortened season. This year’s line is $237MM, so they’re already well over.

If the club decides they need reinforcements, there are plenty of names still available in free agency. That includes marquee guys like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery but also more affordable names like Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more. Given the club’s payroll and the minor nature of the injuries, it doesn’t seem likely that the club will suddenly go out and splurge, but it will be a situation worth monitoring if another pitcher suffers an injury or a setback is suffered by Verlander or France. Despite Brown’s assertion that he’s always looking for starting depth, they haven’t signed any veterans to minor league deals so could perhaps look to add some non-roster guys in the coming days.

Brown: Astros Plan To Make Kyle Tucker Extension Offer

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Astros GM Dana Brown has been candid about the club’s efforts to extend a member of their core ever since he arrived in Houston last winter. Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of the first extension the club signed under Brown’s leadership (a five-year deal for right-hander Cristian Javier), and longtime franchise face Jose Altuve agreed to a five-year extension of his own just last week. While attention has generally turned toward third baseman Alex Bregman as he heads into his final year before free agency and Houston brass indicates they intend to offer him a long-term extension offer before he reaches the open market, Brown recently made clear that Bregman isn’t the only star hitter the club plans to broach an extension with.

In an appearance on MLB Network Radio today, Brown told hosts Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette that the club plans to discuss a long-term extension with outfielder Kyle Tucker in addition to Bregman. Brown emphasized that there’s no specifically timeline for when those conversations will be held, though he noted that the club has “a little bit more time for Tucker,” who won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign.

That the club would have interest in extending Tucker is hardly a surprise. Brown identified Tucker alongside Bregman, Altuve, and Framber Valdez as members of the club’s core they were hoping to extend last spring, though the club faced gaps in talks with both Tucker and Valdez before eventually deciding to wait on engaging with Altuve and Bregman until this winter. At the time, Tucker was coming off a stretch of three seasons where he slashed .274/.341/.516 en route to MVP votes in the 2021 and ’22 seasons as well as a Gold Glove award and All Star nod in the latter campaign.

The price on Tucker’s services figures to have only gone up since last winter. The slugger’s age-26 campaign saw him slash a fantastic .284/.369/.517 in 157 games, falling just one home run short of a 30/30 season. He led the AL with 112 RBI and earned his second consecutive All Star nod, the first Silver Slugger award of his career, and a top-5 finish in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Julio Rodriguez. Tucker and the Astros managed to avoid arbitration last month by agreeing on a $12MM salary for the 2024 campaign, though the sides did not use those negotiations as a vehicle to explore a longer-term arrangement.

With Tucker just one year away from free agency and coming off the best season of his young career, it could be a challenge for the club to extend the Excel Sports client. Under the ownership of Jim Crane, the Astros have never given out a contract longer than six years, nor one that guarantees more than $150MM. Just one outfielder with a similar pedigree to Tucker have inked long-term deals with between four and five years of service time: slugger Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325MM megadeal with the Marlins nearly a decade ago, in November of 2014.

This isn’t to suggest Tucker should exceed or even meet the figure Stanton received, of course. Age plays an important role in a player’s earning power as they approach free agency, a reality that heavily favored Stanton in comparison to Tucker. Stanton was on track to reach free agency ahead of his age-27 season, while Tucker will hit free agency ahead of his age-29 campaign. What’s more, his overall offensive numbers pale in comparison to Stanton’s. Impressive Tucker’s career-best 146 wRC+ in 2021 was, Stanton’s wRC+ for his entire career at the time was a comparable 145, with an incredible platform season that saw him slash .288/.395/.555 with a 161 wRC+ the season prior to the deal coming together.

Even as Tucker can’t be expected to sign a deal in the same realm as that of Stanton, it’s nonetheless difficult to see Houston locking up Tucker long term without exiting their apparent comfort zone given the success outfielders have found in free agency in recent years. Former Astros outfielder George Springer landed a six-year, $150MM deal with the Blue Jays after entering free agency ahead of his age-31 season with a career wRC+ of 134, and more recently Brandon Nimmo re-signed with the Mets on an eight-year, $162MM deal last winter after hitting free agency a year older than Tucker is slated to with a career wRC+ of 133. Given Tucker’s youth and similar offensive numbers, it seems likely he’d have a good chance to beat the deals landed by Springer and Nimmo in previous offseasons, even as both players augmented their value with the ability to play center field at the time of the deal.

While the Astros, who have just over $134MM in luxury tax payroll committed for the 2025 season as things stand, could certainly afford to give Tucker a lengthy contract, it seems likely that such a deal would require Houston to enter territory not yet charted by the club with their offer, a similar predicament to the one they face with Bregman. It also seems unlikely that Tucker would offer the club a significant hometowm discount, given comments from Brown last winter indicating that the Astros were facing a larger gap in extension discussions with Tucker than Valdez, neither of whom the club ultimately came together on a deal with.

Between the club’s hesitance to offer star-level contracts throughout Crane’s tenure as owner, Brown’s indication that Bregman is the club’s priority for the time being, and the difficulties the sides faced in bridging what was likely a smaller gap last spring, there’s plenty of obstacles facing Tucker and the Astros should they look to extend their relationship long-term. While it’s impossible to rule anything out given the difficult gaps clubs and players have bridged previously around the league, an extension for Tucker would surely require the club moving well outside of its comfort zone in terms of player payroll. That’s particularly true if a Tucker extension were to be paired with a deal locking up Bregman long-term.

Astros Still Hoping To Add To Pitching Staff

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The Astros made a huge addition to their pitching staff recently by signing Josh Hader but it doesn’t appear they are done. “I think our bullpen is pretty solid,” manager Dana Brown said yesterday, with video relayed by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. “We may be able to use one more there. But the pitching, if we get a starter, we could put one of the starters in the ’pen. That would solve that problem. But I’m always in the market of saying ’Hey, where can we find pitching? You know, where can we make it better?’ I think our rotation’s good enough to get back to the World Series right now but I’m always looking to improve pitching because I know how guys get hurt during the course of the year.”

The Astros are set to open the 2024 season with the same rotation mix as they had in the second half of the 2023 campaign. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier will be in the first three slots. Luis García, who had Tommy John surgery in May of last year, could return at some point in the second half. Until then, the spots at the back half will likely be taken by some combination of Hunter Brown, José Urquidy, J.P. France or Brandon Bielak.

The bullpen, however, has seen more turnover since last year. Each of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek reached free agency. Neris signed with the Cubs and Maton with the Rays, while Stanek is still a free agent. The Astros made one big push to cover for those three losses by signing Hader.

The signing of Hader gives the Astros a deadly trio to finish games, with Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu also excellent relievers. But the group gets a bit less scary after that. Rafael Montero is coming off a rough year, posting a 5.08 ERA in 2023 after signing a three-year, $34.5MM deal. The 40-man roster also has guys like Ronel Blanco, Bennett Sousa, Shawn Dubin, Forrest Whitley, Seth Martinez, Parker Mushinski, Dylan Coleman and Oliver Ortega but they are all pretty light on experience.

Adding to that group would be sensible but it’s interesting that Brown said that could come via adding a starter and bumping someone from that mix to the bullpen. Brown looked pretty good for much of the year but seemed to fade down the stretch, with a 3.62 ERA through June but a 6.95 ERA after. He’s still only 25 and that was his first full season in the big leagues, so it’s possible he’ll avoid that slowdown as he acclimates to the big league grind.

Urquidy came into 2023 with a career ERA of 3.74 but his .253 batting average on balls in play and 78.5% strand rate were both on the lucky side. His 4.35 FIP and 4.29 SIERA pointed to some regression, which came last year. He posted a 5.29 ERA in 2023 and also missed about three months due to shoulder discomfort.

France was fairly solid in his 24 outings, with a 3.83 ERA, though he might be due for some regression himself. He only struck out 17.4% of batters faced with a .289 BABIP and 76.7% strand rate, leading to a 4.66 FIP and 4.96 SIERA. Bielak also had a 3.83 ERA last year in his 15 outings, though also with concerning peripherals. Though his 50.2% ground ball rate was strong, both his 17.6% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate were subpar. His 76.2% strand rate may have helped him out, which is why his 5.19 FIP and 5.02 SIERA weren’t as pretty.

Those are generally adequate options for a club to have at the back of a rotation, particularly when the front is so strong. But as Brown alluded to, injuries will happen and there’s always room for more pitching. Bielak is out of options, so perhaps he could get bumped into a relief role if the club were to find another starter somewhere.

How much ability they have to pursue external additions will be an interesting variable. The club has generally been reluctant to pay the competitive balance tax but came into this offseason right near the line and then blew past it when they signed Hader. Per Roster Resource, their CBT number is currently at $255MM, well beyond the base threshold of $237MM and nearing the second tier of $257MM. Getting another pitcher of significance, unless via some sort of cash neutral trade, would surely involve pushing over that line and incurring a higher rate of taxation. The free agent market features big names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery as well as guys like Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many others.

Elsewhere on the Astros’ roster, McTaggart also relayed some video of new manager Joe Espada, answering a question about Yordan Álvarez playing the outfield. “I think that Yordan could play more left,” Espada said. “I’m going to try to put him more in left field because I think it’s important for us to open up the DH spot a little bit more for some other guys to get some more rest. I think when Yordan is healthy and he’s moving around really well, I think he plays a good enough left field for us. But also, I really want to keep that DH spot open to give some guys, you know, get them off their feet and keep their bats in the lineup.” When asked specifically about catcher Yainer Diaz, he affirmed that Diaz would be a guy he’d like to keep in the lineup even when he’s getting a day off from catching.

Álvarez is one of the best hitters in baseball, having hit .295/.390/.588 in his career for a wRC+ of 166, and will be in the lineup as much as possible. But injuries have been an issue from time to time. He missed almost all of the 2020 season due to right knee discomfort. Hand inflammation sent him to the injured list in 2022 and he dealt with an oblique issue last year. As he has battled those issues, his time in the field has never been huge. Thus far, he has topped out at 467 2/3 innings over 56 games in 2022.

Moving him out of the designated hitter slot more often would open more time there for other guys, as Espada mentioned, but it would come with the risk of stretching Álvarez. More time in the field increases the chances of suffering an injury. Meanwhile, the defensive metrics are split on how capable he is with the glove. He’s logged three Defensive Runs Saved thus far in his career but Outs Above Average has him at a -10.

But if he were to head out to the grass a bit more often, it could benefit someone like Diaz. The young backstop is in line to get a lot of playing time anyway after hitting 23 home runs last year, but no catcher starts every game. J.T. Realmuto led the league with 130 starts behind the dish last year with no one else topping 116. That means there will certainly be days where Victor Caratini is donning the tools of ignorance and Diaz would need the DH slot to get into the lineup.

If Álvarez were to play left field more often, that could cut into the playing time of Chas McCormick or Jake Meyers. The Astros will have Kyle Tucker in right field the vast majority of the time, leaving only position for that duo if Álvarez is in left. Both are capable of playing center but Brown said in December that the club was planning to give Meyers a shot at the regular center field job with McCormick the regular in left.

Meyers has strong defensive grades but has hit just .235/.296/.379 in his career thus far for a wRC+ of 88. McCormick’s defense isn’t graded quite as strong but he’s still above average, and with much better offensive output. He’s hit .259/.336/.449 overall for a wRC+ of 120. Pushing Álvarez to the outfield more often would have to squeeze one of them out. Brown also said last month that the club is open to add a left-handed hitting outfielder, with both Meyers and McCormick hitting from the right side.

Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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28 out of the 30 clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, with the Padres and Braves the only exceptions. That means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days.

Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, as the 60-day injured list comes back when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, having gone away shortly after the conclusion of the World Series. This year, the Dodgers and Padres will have an earlier reporting date, due to their earlier Opening Day. Most clubs will begin their 2024 campaign on March 28, but those two clubs are playing a pair of games in Seoul on March 20 and 21. The official 60-day IL dates, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post, are February 8 for the Dodgers, February 11 for the Padres and February 14 for every other club. It’s fairly moot for the Padres since they only have 36 players on their 40-man roster right now, but the Dodgers could be moving guys to the IL as soon as today.

It’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. Transferring a player to the 60-day IL also requires a corresponding move, so a club can’t just make the move in isolation.

There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, as well as guys like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall, Brandon Belt and many more. A player like Brandon Woodruff, who is expected to miss significant time and will need an IL spot himself, might be better able to secure a deal once IL spots open up. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

NL West

Diamondbacks: Drey Jameson

Jameson underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. He will almost certainly spend the entire 2024 season on the IL.

Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Nick Frasso

Kershaw is not officially signed yet, with his physical reportedly taking place today. It doesn’t seem as though it’s a coincidence that today is the first day the club can move players to the IL. He is recovering from shoulder surgery and not expected back until late in the summer. Gonsolin underwent Tommy John surgery in August and may miss the entire campaign. May had surgery in July to repair his flexor tendon as well as a Tommy John revision. He is expected to return at some point midseason. Frasso underwent labrum surgery in November and may miss the entire season.

Giants: Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb

The Giants acquired Ray from the Mariners in a trade last month, knowing full well that he underwent Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon repair in May of last year. He recently said that a return around the All-Star break would be a best-case scenario. Cobb underwent hip surgery in October and isn’t expected back until May at the earliest. His is a more of a borderline case since placing him on the IL would prevent him from returning until late May.

Padres: Tucupita Marcano

Marcano underwent ACL surgery in August of last year while with the Pirates. The Padres claimed him off waivers from the Bucs in November. Recovering from an ACL surgery usually takes about a year or so, meaning Marcano is likely to miss a decent chunk of the upcoming campaign. But as mentioned earlier, the Friars only have 36 players on their 40-man right now, meaning there’s no rush to get Marcano to the IL and open up a roster spot.

Rockies: Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, Lucas Gilbreath

All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Gilbreath may be the closest to returning, as he went under the knife back in March. Márquez and Senzatela underwent their surgeries in May and July, respectively. General manager Bill Schmidt said recently that the club is hopeful Márquez can be back after the All-Star break but is anticipating Senzatela to miss the whole campaign.

NL Central

Brewers: None.

Cardinals: None.

Cubs: None.

Pirates: JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Endy Rodríguez,

Brubaker and Burrows both underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. It’s possible they could be ready to go early in the upcoming season, as some pitchers return around a year after going under the knife. But most pitchers take 14 months or longer so their respective rehabs may push deeper into the upcoming season. Oviedo also underwent TJS but his was in November, meaning he’ll certainly miss the entire 2024 season. The same goes for Rodríguez, who underwent UCL/flexor tendon surgery in December.

Reds: None.

NL East

Braves: Ian Anderson, Penn Murfee, Ángel Perdomo

Anderson underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He was on optional assignment at the time and spent the whole year on the minor league injured list. He could be placed on the major league IL this year if the club needs a roster spot, but they only have 37 guys on the 40-man as of today. Murfee underwent UCL surgery while with the Mariners in June of last year. The Braves signed him to a split deal even though he isn’t likely to be a factor until midseason. Perdomo also got a split deal despite undergoing Tommy John surgery in October of last year, meaning he will miss all of 2024. Since Murfee and Perdomo signed split deals, the club might try to pass them through waivers at some point rather than transferring them to the IL.

Marlins: Sandy Alcántara

Alcántara underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will have to miss the entire 2024 season.

Mets: Ronny Mauricio, David Peterson

Mauricio just suffered a torn ACL in December and will almost certainly miss the entire 2024 season. Peterson underwent hip surgery in November with a recovery timeline of six to seven months, meaning he won’t be able to return until May or June.

Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, Cade Cavalli, Zach Brzykcy

By all accounts, Strasburg will never be able to return to the mound due to nerve damage stemming from his battle with thoracic outlet syndrome. He and the Nats had a deal for him to retire but it reportedly fell apart due to some sort of squabble about his contract. His deal runs through 2026 and he may spend the next three years on the IL unless those retirement talks can be revamped. Cavalli had Tommy John surgery in March of last year, so he could return relatively early in the upcoming campaign. The Nats will probably only move him to the 60-day IL if they don’t think he can return before June. Brzykcy underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was added to the club’s roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

Phillies: None.

AL West

Angels: José Quijada

Quijada underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will miss some portion of the 2024 season. He’ll likely wind up on the 60-day IL unless the club expects him back within about a year of going under the knife.

Astros: Kendall Graveman, Luis García, Lance McCullers Jr.

Graveman recently underwent shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the entire 2024 season. García underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will have to at least miss some of the upcoming campaign. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend upon how his rehab is progressing. McCullers underwent flexor tendon surgery in June and isn’t expected back until late in the summer.

Athletics: Ken Waldichuk

In December, it was reported that Waldichuk is rehabbing from a flexor strain and UCL sprain. He and the club opted for a non-surgical approach involving a Tenex procedure and PRP injection. As of reporting from this weekend, he still hasn’t begun throwing. His situation will likely be monitored in the spring to see how his rehab proceeds.

Mariners: None.

Rangers: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Carson Coleman

deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and is targeting a return this August. Mahle underwent the same procedure in May and the Rangers signed him to a two-year deal, knowing he likely won’t be able to return until midseason in 2024. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and won’t be able to return until June or July. Coleman was a Rule 5 selection of the Rangers, taken from the Yankees. He had Tommy John in April of last year and will likely still be rehabbing for the early parts of the upcoming campaign.

AL Central

Guardians: Daniel Espino

Espino underwent shoulder surgery in May of last year with an estimated recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

Royals: Kris Bubic, Kyle Wright, Josh Taylor

Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will have to miss at least some of the 2024 season. Whether he winds up on the 60-day IL or not will depend if the club thinks he can return before June. Wright underwent shoulder surgery while with Atlanta last year and will miss all of 2024. The Royals acquired him in a trade, hoping for a return to health in 2025 and beyond. Taylor was already on the IL due to a shoulder impingement in June of last year when he required surgery on a herniated disc in his lower back. His current status isn’t publicly known.

Tigers: None.

Twins: Josh Staumont

Staumont underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in July of last year while with the Royals. He was non-tendered by the Royals and then signed by the Twins. His recovery timeline is unclear at the moment.

White Sox: Matt Foster, Davis Martin

Both of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year, Foster in April and Martin in May. They could perhaps return early in the season if their rehabs go especially well, but they also might need to continue rehabbing until midseason.

AL East

Blue Jays: None.

Orioles: Félix Bautista

Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October of last year and will miss the entire 2024 season.

Rays: Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Taylor Walls

Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He could be a factor in the early months of the season if his rehab is going well, as some pitchers can return after about a year, but he also may need a bit more time. McClanahan underwent the same procedure but in August and will likely miss the entirety of the upcoming season. Rasmussen was dealing with a flexor strain last year and underwent an internal brace procedure in July, which will keep him out until midseason. Walls underwent hip surgery in October and is more up in the air as there’s a chance he’s ready as soon as Opening Day, depending on how his rehab goes.

Red Sox: None.

Yankees: Jasson Domínguez

Domínguez underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. The return for hitters is generally shorter than pitchers, but the Yanks estimated his return timeline as 9-10 months, which will still keep him on the shelf until midseason.

Latest On Astros, Alex Bregman

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Feb. 8: The Astros spoke to Boras yesterday, GM Dana Brown said Thursday (X link via Rome). Brown stressed that there’s no timetable for extension talks but echoed Crane’s comments that the team “will make an [extension] offer” to Bregman.

Feb. 7: The Astros locked up one franchise icon yesterday, perhaps for the remainder of his career, when signing second baseman Jose Altuve to a five-year, $125MM deal that runs through his age-39 campaign. Altuve’s extension status has been a talking point for the past year, as the eight-time All-Star had been slated to reach free agency this coming offseason. Third baseman Alex Bregman finds himself in a similar scenario, entering the final season of a nine-figure extension and on the cusp of free agency. However, talks with the 29-year-old Bregman are another beast entirely — a reality owner Jim Crane acknowledged when speaking to Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle.

While Crane candidly stated that the organization will “definitely” make a long-term offer to Bregman before he reaches the market, he also acknowledged that Bregman’s age makes him “a little different circumstance.” That’s something of an understatement. Bregman, who like Altuve is represented by the Boras Corporation, is currently slated to head into free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. Altuve would’ve turned 34 in May of the first season of a potential free agent deal.

That gap in age sets vastly different market expectations — as does the difference in position. In recent offseasons, the market hasn’t rewarded pure second basemen at nearly the same levels as third basemen. And with Bregman hitting the market prior to his age-31 season, a deal ranging from seven to nine years in length seems plausible in a way that simply wouldn’t have been the case for Altuve entering his age-34 season.

A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker highlights the discrepancy. Prior to Altuve’s new deal, the largest free-agent deal or extension inked by any second baseman in the past five years was Marcus Semien’s $175MM contract and Andres Gimenez’s $106.75MM extension. Flip the position to third base, and free agency has provided $300MM and $245MM deals to Manny Machado and Anthony Rendon, respectively, while the extension market has seen Austin Riley, Nolan Arenado and Rafael Devers all eclipse $200MM (and $300MM, in Devers’ case). When switching to age-based criteria, Aaron Judge’s $360MM contract began with his age-31 season, whereas no position player contract beginning at age 34 had topped Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM deal.

At today’s press conference to formally announce the Altuve extension, Boras was asked about the possibility of a Bregman extension. As one would expect, he didn’t rule anything out, telling reporters: “Alex has made it clear that he’s open to listening to whatever the Astros have to say” (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic).

But, as we’ve previously noted here at MLBTR and as Rome outlined concisely in his latest mailbag column (which Astros fans, in particular, will want to check out in full), the type of commitment it’ll require to sign Bregman long-term isn’t one that the Astros have been willing to make in the past. Owner Jim Crane has never signed a player for more than a $150MM guarantee and has never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year deal. Bregman, if he has a “typical” year in line with his career levels, figures to be positioned to top both of those figures by a wide margin.

Even assuming Bregman rejects a qualifying offer — which seems like a given if he produces at his usual levels — a seven-year deal would seem like the bare minimum, and a lengthier pact would be considered likely. Bregman would be the clear top third baseman on next year’s market and could wind up being considered the No. 2 or No. 3 overall free agent behind Juan Soto. He’ll be in a tier alongside stars like Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Willy Adames, among others, in that regard. Boras touched on this today, telling the Astros beat that because of the age at which they signed their previous contracts and the age at which they are (or were, in Altuve’s case) scheduled to hit free agency, that Bregman faces “a more normal free agency dynamic” than Altuve would have (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

From a payroll standpoint, the Astros could certainly make a Bregman deal work — even after inking Altuve. Roster Resource projects a bit more than $117MM in guaranteed money on the 2025 books. Adding in a new Bregman contract and arbitration raises for stars Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez could add as much as $65-75MM to that number, but Houston is set to trot out a $240MM payroll in 2024 and will exceed the luxury tax threshold this year. Extending Bregman would mean committing to having four players — Bregman, Altuve, Hader and Alvarez — all locked up through at least the 2028 season, but the frontloaded nature of Altuve’s contract will mean he’s only earning a $10MM salary in each of those seasons. As such, it’d be plenty plausible to have Altuve ($10MM), Hader ($19MM), Alvarez ($26MM) and Bregman and have that quartet account for well shy of $100MM.

An extension for Bregman shouldn’t be waved off as a sheer impossibility, but it’d take a change in the club’s contractual norms for one to come together this spring. Houston fans can point to the fact that the Josh Hader signing represented just that sort of philosophical shift, as it was a much larger deal than Crane has typically been willing to commit to a free agent, but a Bregman extension would represent an even larger departure from prior norms, given the dollars at stake.

Marlins Claim Declan Cronin

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The Marlins have claimed right-hander Declan Cronin off waivers from the Astros, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 in Houston. He was designated for assignment last week. Miami hasn’t formally announced the claim and will need to open a spot on the 40-man roster to make the move official.

Cronin, 26, made his big league debut with the White Sox in 2023, yielding 11 runs in 11 innings. He’s a sinker-slider righty who averaged just under 94 mph on the former of those two offerings and posted big ground-ball rates both in the upper minors and in his limited MLB time. Cronin logged a 3.83 ERA in 51 2/3 Triple-A frames this past season, striking out 18.7% of his opponents against an 8.9% walk rate while sporting a 54.5% grounder rate.

While Cronin’s cup of coffee in the big leagues doesn’t stand out, his combination of lofty ground-ball rates and plus spin on his slider has piqued the interest of a few teams now. The ChiSox selected him to the roster this past summer, the Astros claimed him off waivers early last month, and the Marlins have now placed their own claim. Since the former 36th-round pick was just selected to a 40-man roster for the first time last summer, he still has multiple minor league option years remaining and, if he can establish himself as a viable MLB bullpen piece, is controllable for at least six more seasons.

Astros Sign Jose Altuve To Five-Year Extension

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Jose Altuve is remaining in Houston. The Astros announced the signing of the former MVP to a five-year extension that covers the 2025-29 seasons. Altuve, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $125MM. He’ll collect a $15MM signing bonus. Altuve’s previous deal called for a $26MM salary in 2024 that remains in place. He’s now due $30MM annually between 2025-27 and respective $10MM figures from 2028-29. He had been slated to reach free agency next offseason.

It isn’t exactly a surprise to see the two sides come together on a deal. Dana Brown was hired as the club’s general manager in January of 2023 and almost immediately spoke on the record about how he hoped the club would be able to lock up core players, including Altuve. Shortly thereafter, he said that Altuve “should be in Houston for life.” It was just a couple of days later that Altuve himself said “I hope to retire here, so I think we’re on the same page.” It was in March that Brown pushed the brakes a little, saying extension talks would likely be pushed to after the 2023 campaign, with a deal now coming to fruition. This new extension runs through Altuve’s age-39 season.

This is the third time that Altuve and the Astros have signed an extension, which has kept him with the team as so many others have come and gone. Fairly or unfairly, that has made him the face of the franchise, which is a double-edged sword. For supporters of the club, he provides a through line from their miserable rebuilding years at the start of the previous decade to their incredible run of recent success, which includes a pair of World Series titles and seven straight ALCS appearances. For many others around baseball, his accolades remain tarnished by the 2017 sign-stealing scandal.

However one feels about Altuve’s legacy, there’s no question he remains one of the sport’s best offensive players as he goes into his age-34 campaign. An atypically poor showing during the shortened 2020 season looked as if might signal the start of a decline. That hasn’t been the case. Altuve rebounded with 31 homers and a .278/.350/.489 showing in 2021. He has been even better over the last two seasons. He raked at a .300/.387/.533 clip with 28 homers through 604 trips to the plate two seasons ago.

A thumb fracture sustained when he was hit by a pitch in last year’s World Baseball Classic kept Altuve off the field for the first couple months of the 2023 season. He returned in the middle of May, and while his season was again paused in July by a mild oblique strain, he was no worse for wear when able to take the field. Altuve ran a stellar .335/.404/.544 line in the second half and finished the year with a .311/.393/.522 mark in 410 plate appearances. He concluded with another excellent playoff performance, knocking four home runs while hitting .286 in 11 games.

Since the start of the 2021 campaign, Altuve is a .294/.374/.513 hitter. That offensive productivity is 47 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s easily the best hitting performance by any second baseman and a top 10 mark among all qualified batters. Altuve remains as difficult as ever to strike out and has posted his two highest single-season walk rates within the last two years.

To the extent that the eight-time All-Star has shown any signs of aging, that’s limited to the other side of the ball. Altuve has never been a great defensive second baseman. His glovework has dipped in recent years, although the extent of that drop-off differs depending on the metric. Statcast has graded Altuve around league average. Defensive Runs Saved, on the other hand, estimates that he has been a combined 28 runs worse than an average defensive second baseman over the last two years.

That’s not of much concern for Houston as they retain one of the best players in franchise history for what’ll likely be the remainder of his career. By the time the deal wraps up, Altuve will have spent parts of 19 years in a Houston uniform. Whether the Astros can maintain the kind of team success they’ve had over the last eight years for the rest of the decade remains to be seen. Houston has a number of key players approaching free agency within the next season or two.

Alex Bregman will hit the open market a year from now. Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez have two remaining seasons of arbitration control. They’ve successfully locked up Altuve, Cristian Javier and Yordan Alvarez on extensions and have three-plus years of control over the likes of Hunter Brown, Jeremy Peña and Yainer Diaz. There could be some turnover if Bregman, Tucker and Valdez were to depart, but the Astros are trying to ensure the window doesn’t close entirely.

Altuve’s extension won’t affect their salary commitments for 2024, but he’ll now add a $15MM signing bonus to their ledger. Houston already had a franchise-record level of spending with a projected 2024 payroll approaching $240MM, per Roster Resource. The signing bonus will push their actual spending obligations towards the $250MM mark.

Houston is already well into luxury tax territory, but the deal’s $25MM average annual value won’t count against their CBT obligations until 2025. They now have upwards of $115MM on the books for ’25 and over $100MM in commitments to Altuve, Alvarez, Javier, Josh Hader and Lance McCullers Jr. for 2026.

Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 first reported the $125MM guarantee. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the specific salary structure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mauricio Dubon Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Astros

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Utilityman Mauricio Dubón has won an arbitration hearing against the Astros, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 in Houston. The Astros will pay the $3.5MM salary figure submitted by Dubón and his representatives at ALIGND Sports, as opposed to the $3MM sum the team had filed.

Dubón is coming off the best season of his career. He played in a personal-high 132 games and tallied almost 500 plate appearances. Dubón turned in league average results offensively, hitting .278/.309/.411 while getting into the double digits in home runs for the first time. As he has throughout his career, he consistently put the ball in play while playing essneitlaly anywhere on the diamond. Dubón struck out in fewer than 15% of his plate appearances and started multiple games at each of first base, second base, shortstop, left field and center field.

The right-handed hitter filled in effectively at the keystone early in the year when Jose Altuve was on the injured list. He moved back to his traditional utility role as the season progressed. Dubón doesn’t project as a starter at any individual position in a strong Houston lineup, but his defensive flexibility means he’ll log semi-regular playing time around the diamond.

This was his second of four trips through the arbitration process. Dubón qualified for early arbitration last winter as a Super Two player, agreeing to a $1.4MM salary for 2023. He earns a raise of more than $2MM this time and will go through the process twice more. Dubón won’t be eligible for free agency until the 2026-27 offseason, at which point he’ll be entering his age-32 campaign.

Dubón was Houston’s only arbitration-eligible player who didn’t agree to terms this offseason. Finalizing his salary pushes their 2024 payroll commitments to roughly $240MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re up to nearly $255MM in competitive balance tax obligations, just $2MM below the second penalization tier. It’s easily the highest payroll projection in franchise history as Houston pushes for another AL West triumph. With each of Dubón, Taylor Ward and Austin Hays being announced as the winners of their hearings this morning, players have been victorious in three of the first five arbitration cases.

Joe Smith Announces Retirement

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Veteran reliever Joe Smith announced his retirement on Wednesday, calling it a career after spending parts of 15 seasons in the Major Leagues. Via his representatives at Excel Sports Management, Smith issued a lengthy statement thanking the Mets, Guardians, Angels, Cubs, Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners and Twins organizations in addition to his coaches, teammates, trainers and family for supporting him throughout his career.

Selected by the Mets in the third round of the 2006 draft, the now-39-year-old Smith was in the majors less than one year later and practically never looked back. That’s in large part thanks to the fact that Smith established himself as a quality big league reliever right out of the gate, pitching 44 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball with a 22% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate as a rookie.

That set off a remarkable run of 13 straight seasons with an ERA of 3.83 or better for Smith — including five years with a sub-3.00 mark and two with a sub-2.00. While the sidearming Smith was rarely thrust into the ninth-inning spotlight (30 career saves), he’s one of the most consistent and prolific setup men in the game’s history. Since holds began being tracked, Smith’s 228 rank him in the top five all-time. His blend of durability and consistently strong performance kept him in leverage spots for more than a decade.

Smith wasn’t on the 2016 Cubs’ World Series roster after missing most of the final month of the season due to injury, but he did take home a ring that year and pitched in parts of five other postseasons (including in 2019, when he pitched in the World Series as the Astros finished runner-up to the Nationals). As was the case during his regular-season performances, he remained quite strong in October. In 14 career playoff innings, Smith yielded only four earned runs on eight hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts (2.57 ERA).

All told, Smith will walk away from the game with 762 1/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball under his belt. In his career, he pitched for eight MLB clubs, notching a 55-34 record with 30 saves, 228 holds, a 21.1% strikeout rate and an 8.1% walk rate. Smith didn’t post an ERA over 4.00 until his age-37 season in 2021, and in 15 MLB seasons he never had a single year where he ERA climbed to 5.00 or higher. He picked up more than 13 years of Major League service time and earned more than $51MM in salary over the course of a quietly excellent career. Best wishes to Smith and his family in whatever lies in store for his post-playing days.

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