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Jose Urquidy Being Evaluated For Elbow Injury; Astros Remain In Market For Starting Pitching

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Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy pulled himself from a minor league game after 43 pitches due to pain in his right elbow, manager Joe Espada told reporters (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). He’d been scheduled to throw around 60 pitches.

It’s a concerning development for a Houston club that will see Justin Verlander open the season on the injured list and knows it’ll be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the early portion of the 2024 campaign as well. Prior to this news, it looked as though Urquidy would join Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and J.P. France in the Astros’ Opening Day rotation. That’s no sure thing now.

Urquidy, 28, missed more than three months of the 2023 campaign with a shoulder injury, which only makes further arm troubles all the more ominous. He pitched to a career-worst 5.29 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound, with the second-lowest strikeout rate (16.4%) and the highest walk rate (9.1%) he’s turned in during any big league season.

Prior to last year’s rough showing, Urquidy was a steady and arguably underrated member of the Houston staff. From 2019-22, he pitched 342 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate but an excellent 5.2% walk rate. Durability has been an issue for the right-hander, but he’s been effective more often than not when he’s taken the ball.

The mounting number of injuries on the Houston staff could potentially spur the team to action. General manager Dana Brown said not even two weeks ago that he wasn’t in the market for more starting pitching … only to suggest the opposite to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle this week. Rome, citing a multiple anonymous sources, reported that the ’Stros are indeed still in the market for arms. Brown spoke in generalities when asked about Blake Snell, telling Rome: “As long as Snell is on the market, we check in to ask what is the latest. Nothing new as of now.”

It’s telling that those comments came even before today’s potential injury to Urquidy. Presumably, if there’s real concern that Urquidy might miss some time, that would only hasten the team’s desire to add to the rotation, whether in the form of Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger or any of the other arms the free agent or trade market may have to offer. Crane did act aggressively and decisively when the Astros found out they’d lost setup man Kendall Graveman for the season, surprising many onlookers by signing Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM contract.

Snell, of course, would be the costliest free agent on the market in terms of financial outlay and future considerations. Because he rejected a qualifying offer, Snell would cost the Astros their second-highest draft pick and $500K of space from next year’s international free agent bonus pool. Since they already punted a second-round pick to sign Hader, however, that’d “only” be a third-round pick.

Since the Astros are already at a projected $255.7MM of luxury obligations (per RosterResource), signing Snell would push that figure past the $257MM second-tier threshold and past the third-tier $277MM threshold. That $277MM line is of particular note, as crossing that barrier drops a team’s top pick in the following year’s draft by 10 places.

Any additional players signed by the Astros would be subject to penalty under the luxury tax, although because Houston didn’t pay the tax last year, they’re considered a first-time offender. That subjects them to much lesser fees than third-time offenders like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, etc. Houston would owe a 20% tax on the next $1.3MM spent, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax on the next $20MM. That tax would be based on the annual value of the contract.

A $30MM AAV on a Snell deal, for instance, would cost the Astros around $12.1MM in luxury taxes. That’s a steep price, but it’s nowhere near the 110% tax rate the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and others would face. Whether that makes it palatable enough for owner Jim Crane to further add to what’s already a franchise-record payroll by a wide margin remains to be seen.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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The Astros entered the offseason anticipating a few depth acquisitions. An injury to one of their anticipated setup relievers spurred them in another direction: a bold strike for one of the sport’s best late-game weapons.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $25MM
Total spending: $107MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Astros very narrowly missed another trip to the World Series. They dropped two straight at home against the Rangers to lose a seven-game ALCS. Watching their in-state rivals secure the first championship in franchise history might add some fuel to the fire, but the Astros would’ve remained firmly in win-now mode no matter how things played in October.

That didn’t necessarily portend an active winter. Houston went into the offseason with a projected franchise-record payroll. They have one of the sport’s most complete rosters. They were set to lose a few contributors but no instrumental piece of the core. Michael Brantley (who eventually announced his retirement), Martín Maldonado and the relief trio of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek were Houston’s only free agents of note.

As a result, general manager Dana Brown indicated early in the winter that the team didn’t expect to do anything drastic. He suggested their outside acquisitions were likely to be more of the depth variety, identifying backup catcher and middle relief as the target areas.

Before they could turn their attention fully to the roster, the Astros had to address the coaching staff. Dusty Baker stepped down at year’s end, concluding what’ll almost certainly be a Hall of Fame managerial career. Joe Espada, who had worked as bench coach under both A.J. Hinch and Baker, has long seemed to be a manager-in-waiting. The Astros tabbed Espada in mid-November, giving the 48-year-old his first managerial opportunity. Organizational stalwart Omar López moved up to bench coach.

Continuity was also a theme for much of the roster, although the Astros started the offseason with a few moves around the margins. During the Winter Meetings, they inked former Brewer Victor Caratini to a two-year, $12MM pact to serve as backup catcher. That marked the end of Maldonado’s run in Houston. The Astros declared before the winter that they’d turn the primary catching job to 25-year-old Yainer Díaz, who brings a lot more offensive upside than Maldonado offers. Given Maldonado’s stature in the clubhouse, it probably would have been tough to move him fully to a backup role in Houston. It made more sense to let him sign elsewhere — he eventually landed with the White Sox on a $4.25MM pact — and bring in a new #2 option.

Caratini wound up being Houston’s only MLB free agent position player pickup of the winter. It was their only major league signing at all well into January. That’s when the club revealed that Kendall Graveman required shoulder surgery that’d end his 2024 season before it got off the ground. Between Graveman’s injury and the aforementioned trio of free agent losses, the relief corps suddenly looked alarmingly thin behind the late-inning duo of Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu.

Brown initially played coy, saying the Graveman injury wouldn’t add any urgency to bring in relief help. Yet it clearly concerned both the front office and ownership, who signed off on a surprising strike at the top of the market. Within three days of announcing the Graveman news, the Astros inked Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM pact. It’s the second-largest guarantee to a reliever in MLB history and the highest in terms of net present value after accounting for deferrals in Edwin Díaz’s $102MM deal with the Mets.

It was a completely out of character splurge for the organization. While owner Jim Crane has approved player payrolls in the upper third of the league, the organization has been averse to long-term free agent commitments. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Hader deal was the first time the Astros stretched to five years on a free agent since Crane purchased the franchise in 2011. They’d only even gone to four years once before on the $52MM Josh Reddick pact. It was also the first time that Houston signed a player who had declined a qualifying offer.

Crane and Brown considered it worthwhile to deviate from typical procedure to add arguably the sport’s best reliever while the team’s path to a title remains clear. The five-time All-Star is coming off a 1.28 ERA showing while striking out almost 37% of batters faced for the Padres. Houston gave up their second-round pick and $500K in international signing bonus space to install him in the ninth inning. That bumps Pressly into setup work, where he’ll pair with Abreu in what should be an electric back of the bullpen.

Strong as that final trio is, the middle relief group does look like a relative weak point. The Hader signing meant the Astros eschewed a volume approach to addressing the middle innings. They claimed Oliver Ortega off waivers and took a flier on Dylan Coleman in a minor trade with the Royals. Beyond that, they’re counting on Rafael Montero to rebound from a poor season and hoping for steps forward from an internal option like Brandon Bielak or Seth Martinez. Brown acknowledged over the weekend the team is still looking to add middle relief help. That’d need to come via trade, waivers or potentially a minor league free agent pickup at this point.

As far as weaknesses go, middle relief is one of the easier problems to navigate. The Astros don’t have much concern throughout the rest of the roster. Caratini and first baseman Trey Cabbage, acquired from the Angels after a DFA, were the only position player pickups of the winter. Caratini and Díaz make for a strong catching tandem. José Abreu had a disappointing first year in Houston, but he perhaps found his power stroke in the final few weeks of the season. They’ll give him another shot at first base. Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman round out an excellent infield.

Brantley’s departure puts a little more pressure on the in-house outfielders. Kyle Tucker should provide star production in right field. Chas McCormick has been an above-average regular and should get the bulk of playing time in left field. The Astros will turn center field to defensive stalwart Jake Meyers. McCormick can handle center on days when Yordan Alvarez trots out to left field. Mauricio Dubón remains on hand as a multi-positional option off the bench.

There wasn’t much turnover in the position player group. That could change next offseason, as Bregman is on track to hit free agency. That even led to speculation that the Astros could preemptively dangle him in trade talks this winter, although the organization quickly shot down that idea. Brown and Crane each said the team will make an extension offer to Bregman at some point, but that won’t be cheap. His camp could set out in search of a deal exceeding $200MM. The same is true for Tucker, who is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season.

Like Bregman, Altuve had been on track to hit free agency at the end of the upcoming season. It was difficult to envision the franchise stalwart donning any other uniform. The Astros and his camp all but ensured that won’t happen. They locked in a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2025-29 seasons. That runs through Altuve’s age-39 campaign, ensuring he’ll be the franchise second baseman through the end of this competitive cycle. Altuve’s defensive grades are declining, but he remains the sport’s best offensive second baseman. Keeping him in the leadoff spot maximizes their chances of staying atop the AL West in the middle third of the decade.

The extension discussion isn’t limited to the position player side. Framber Valdez is down to his final two seasons of arbitration control. He won’t hit free agency until age 32, so he doesn’t have the same earning power as Tucker or Bregman do. Yet he’s deep enough into arbitration that he’d surely cost more than the $64MM which Houston guaranteed Cristian Javier last spring. A Valdez deal would likely go into nine figures. He and the Astros haven’t found an agreeable price point yet. As with Bregman, this led to some early-offseason trade speculation that never seemed to get far.

For now, Valdez slots back in as Houston’s top starter. That might’ve been true even if Justin Verlander were healthy, but the latter will begin the season on the injured list as he cautiously builds up after experiencing shoulder soreness early in camp. Javier, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown will follow Valdez in the season-opening rotation. J.P. France will get the nod as the #5 starter so long as he’s fully recovered from a minor shoulder issue of his own. If France does need to miss time, Bielak, Ronel Blanco or prospect Spencer Arrighetti could find themselves in the mix.

It’s a thinner rotation than the ones which the Astros have rolled out in previous years. That could be a concern around the deadline, but Brown has stated a few times it’s not something they feel compelled to address before Opening Day. Verlander’s IL stay isn’t expected to be too long. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia could each be back from arm surgeries in the middle of the season. The front office should have a clearer idea in the summer of the extent to which they can rely on McCullers and Garcia down the stretch.

The gap in the AL West isn’t as wide as it once was. The Rangers and Mariners both pushed last year’s division race into the final weekend of the regular season. Texas got the last laugh in October. Still, the Astros have taken the AL West crown in six of the last seven seasons (all aside from the shortened 2020 schedule). They’ve gotten as far as the ALCS every year since 2017. This probably won’t be the best Astro team of the last few years, but there’s certainly enough talent to put them in the conversation at the top of the American League yet again.

 

Brown: Astros “Having Conversations” About Bullpen Additions

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Astros GM Dana Brown made an appearance on MLB Network Radio this afternoon to discuss where the club stands with a matter of weeks left until Opening Day. In doing so, Brown suggested that the club is mostly set in terms of the lineup and starting rotation, and that his primary focus at this point in the spring is looking to solidfy the club’s bullpen. While Brown expressed confidence in the quartet of Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Rafael Montero, he added that the club still needs to “figure out” how to handle the middle innings following the departures of Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, and Hector Neris this winter. The GM went on to suggest that the club is even looking at external options as it evaluates its bullpen mix.

“We are talking to clubs about trades,” Brown said, “I can’t get into that, but we definitely are having conversations about trades… we’re always looking at ways and avenues that we can get better, and if we can get better we’re going to make moves.”

With the aforementioned four relievers presumably locked into bullpen spots ahead of Opening Day, that leaves four spots in the relief corps available entering the 2024 campaign. One of those jobs appears likely to go to out of options right-hander Brandon Bielak, who posted a solid 3.83 ERA in 80 innings of work last year while swinging between starting and relief and figures to occupy a long relief role with the club this year. Other likely contenders for spots in the club’s bullpen include right-hander Dylan Coleman and southpaw Bennett Sousa, both of whom earned praise from Brown at the start of camp last month.

Looking at other options on the 40-man roster, Ronel Blanco pitched to a 4.50 ERA in 17 appearances with the club last year including seven starts, though it’s fair to wonder whether the Astros would prefer to keep him stretched out as starting pitching depth at the Triple-A level to open the season with Justin Verlander expected to open the season on the injured list. Seth Martinez, Oliver Ortega, and Parker Mushinski are other relief options with big league experience currently on the club’s 40-man, with the likes of Wander Suero and Joel Kuhnel in camp as non-roster invitees.

One potential x-factor who has yet to make his MLB debut is former top prospect Forrest Whitley, who is also already on the club’s 40-man roster. The club’s first-round pick in the 2017 draft was once a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport but has battled injuries and ineffectiveness in recent years, prompting a move to the bullpen. That being said, Whitley has battled finger inflammation this spring and was shut down from throwing in late February, potentially impacting his availability on Opening Day.

While the club certainly has a number of potentially viable options at its disposal, that group of arms vying for spots in the middle of the Houston bullpen offers little in the way of certainty. Given that, it’s easy to see why Brown would look to potentially bolster his relief corps ahead of Opening Day. That said, it’s unclear which teams could look to part with bullpen depth at this late stage in the offseason. While the Red Sox have reportedly shopped Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin this winter, the duo have been slowed by injuries this spring and are veteran, high-leverage arms who would be a significant step up from the type of middle relief relief arm Brown indicated the club is looking for. Jansen, in particular, comes with a whopping $16MM salary for the 2024 season that Houston would be unlikely to be interested in paying given their full late-inning mix.

Even as there aren’t any obvious fits for what the Astros appear to be looking for in the rumor mill at the moment, it’s not difficult to imagine an arm not yet on the radar as a trade candidate becoming available as Opening Day draws near. After all, the majority of clubs have far more bullpen options currently in camp than they can afford to roster entering the season. It’s always possible that an out-of-options reliever squeezed off another club’s roster or a non-roster invitee who isn’t breaking camp with their current organization could catch the club’s attention and prompt Brown to attempt to swing a deal, even if a more significant deal isn’t being worked on behind the scenes.

AL West Notes: Snell, Angels, Jung, Pollock, Verlander, Astros

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In a recent edition of the Willard and Dibs podcast, ESPN’s Buster Olney predicted Blake Snell will sign with the Angels, based on “conversations with people…who know Blake” and Snell’s apparent enjoyment of pitching in southern California.  Olney added the natural “depending on where the money falls” caveat, and things could also change depending on how the pitching market might yet play out, in regards to injuries suddenly changing the outlook for a would-be contender.  Agent Scott Boras said this week that he’d been hearing from some new suitors in regards to Snell and Jordan Montgomery since Spring Training opened, though both pitchers remain unsigned as we’re now into the second week of March.

The Angels were linked to Snell back in December, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writing at the time that Snell was “their priority” as a front-of-the-rotation pitcher to replace Shohei Ohtani.  There hasn’t been much public movement between the two sides since, though the Halos also haven’t done anything else to upgrade their rotation, as their offseason pitching moves have been largely focused on bullpen additions.  The Angels have traditionally been reluctant to sign pitchers to big multi-year commitments, though since Snell is reportedly open to taking a shorter-term contract (likely with at least one opt-out clause), this could help find common ground towards a landing spot in Anaheim.

Other items from around the AL West…

  • It has been about three weeks since Josh Jung was shut down due to calf soreness, and the Rangers aren’t yet ready to him “ratchet up his running program,” according to Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link).  Another MRI on Jung indicated some improvement with his calf, but the team is still being cautious, which is understandable given Jung’s important role as the starting third baseman.  Jung has already made his mark with a big rookie season that included an All-Star nod and a World Series ring, with Jung hitting .308/.329/.538 slash line in 70 postseason plate appearances.  It seems possible that Jung might need to start the season on the 10-day injured list if he misses much more Spring Training time, though the injury doesn’t appear to be overly serious.
  • AJ Pollock is at the Mariners’ spring camp in something of an unofficial coaching mentorship role, Shannon Drayer of MyNorthwest.com writes.  MLB Trade Rumors has learned that Pollock is still exploring his playing options and hasn’t officially retired, though since the longtime outfielder just turned 36, it isn’t a surprise that he might be exploring what’s next once he does decide to hang up the cleats.  Pollock played in 49 games for Seattle last season before being traded to the Giants at the deadline, and hit only .165/.215/.308 in 144 total plate appearances.  Pollock has an .892 OPS over 422 PA just as recently as the 2021 season, though he had a subpar year with the White Sox in 2022 before his bigger performance dropoff last year.
  • Justin Verlander told MLB.com and other reporters that he threw around 60 pitches during a bullpen session on Friday, and is up to lower-90s velocity on his fastball.  It seems like another positive step for Verlander as he continues to ramp up after a minor shoulder problem delayed his start to Spring Training.  The Astros have already announced that Verlander will begin the season on the 15-day IL, though that placement is just to give him more time to get ready, rather than any true concern over his health.
  • Since both Verlander and J.P. France have been slowed by shoulder issues, the Astros rotation is a bit of a question mark as Opening Day approaches.  While the team gauges what arms might fill in for Verlander or France on a temporary basis, The Athletic’s Chandler Rome notes that Houston will be in particular need of starters due to a busy early schedule.  The Astros play 20 games in the first 21 days of the season, and Rome feels the club could even go with a six-man rotation in April to keep everyone as fresh as possible.  That would open the door for Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak to both make the rotation if France also needs some IL time, or one of Blanco/Bielak could work as a long reliever.

Brown: Astros Not In Market For Additional Starting Pitching

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March 5: Even following today’s announcement that Verlander will open the season on the injured list, Brown doubled down on his comments downplaying a potential rotation addition (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Brown again stated that his club isn’t in the market for starting pitching at this time, pointing France as the likely fifth starter behind Valdez, Javier, Brown and Urquidy. Blanco and prospect Spencer Arrighetti were also listed by Brown as depth options.

March 3: The Astros made a major splash at the back of their bullpen by signing relief ace Josh Hader to a five-year deal back in January, fortifying a late-inning mix that already included veteran closer Ryan Pressly and flamethrowing youngster Bryan Abreu. In the run-up to Spring Training, however, Houston GM Dana Brown indicated that the club hoped to make further additions to the pitching side of its roster before Opening Day, either by adding a reliever to the club’s bullpen mix or perhaps by adding another starter to allow other potential rotation arms to work in relief. That no longer appears to be the plan, as the GM downplayed the likelihood of such an addition coming to fruition in comments made to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) yesterday.

“We might add something later (around the trade deadline), but right now I think our team’s built to win and we’re ready to go,” Brown said, as relayed by Rome. Brown then went on to specifically note that he doesn’t expect the club to sign left-hander Blake Snell, the top free agent remaining on the open market, even as he admitted that he “would love to have him” on board.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros aren’t likely to aggressively pursue a deal with Snell. After all, the club has already entered unprecedented territory this winter when it comes to payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Astros have never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. Those same projections put Houston at a $254MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, just a hair below the second threshold of $257MM. An addition of Snell’s caliber would surely blow past that number, as would even smaller deals for remaining mid-level free agent arms such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

While Brown’s comments suggest that the club is comfortable with its internal options in the rotation, Houston’s depth is already being tested with a month left to go before Opening Day. Both veteran ace Justin Verlander and sophomore right-hander J.P. France have been sidelined to this point in the spring by shoulder issues, leaving the status of bother hurlers in question ahead of Opening Day. Should both righties begin the season on the shelf, the club would likely be left to turn to either Ronel Blanco or Brandon Bielak as their fifth starter behind the established quartet of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy. Blanco made seven starts for the Astros last year, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in 38 innings of work, while Bielak posted a 3.69 ERA in 70 2/3 frames over 13 starts.

The recent comments seem to shut the door on the club making any major additions, though it’s at least plausible that the Astros could look to shore up their bullpen depth with a smaller investment. The best remaining relief arm on the free agent market, veteran right-hander Ryne Stanek, spent the last three seasons in Houston and pitched to a strong 2.90 ERA with a 3.91 FIP during his time with the club, though he’s coming off a shaky platform season that saw him post a 4.09 ERA with a career-worst 23.9% strikeout rate. Other veteran options still available include Brad Boxberger and Mark Melancon, each of whom offer late inning experience and could likely be had on non-roster deals after injury-marred 2023 campaigns.

Justin Verlander To Begin Season On Injured List

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Astros ace Justin Verlander will begin the season on the injured list, manager Joe Espada announced Tuesday morning (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). There’s been no setback for Verlander after he initially reported some soreness in his right shoulder, Espada emphasized, but the 41-year-old will simply need more time to get ramped up for the season. Espada added that Verlander is “doing really well” in his progression, but the team wants to be “smart” rather than try to rush the three-time Cy Young winner back for the Opening Day nod.

Verlander has tossed multiple bullpen sessions since initially revealing he was behind schedule due to his right shoulder — including one as recent as Sunday. Espada didn’t place a firm timeline on Verlander’s return, but there’s been no indication from the team or the player himself that any of his throwing sessions have gone poorly thus far. That’s all reason for some cautious optimism and to hope for a short-term IL stint that sees Verlander miss only a couple of starts.

Fans might be tempted to draw some parallels between the Verlander news and the Kendall Graveman injury that prompted the team’s signing of Josh Hader — but a short-term absence for Verlander doesn’t seem likely to push the ’Stros to one of the high-profile arms remaining on the market. Signing Hader cost the Astros a draft pick but only a 20% tax (about $3.8MM overall), and that move was made largely in response to a season-ending injury. Verlander’s case is quite different both in terms of his recovery timetable and the associated tax ramifications.

The Astros are already well into luxury-tax territory thanks to that Hader deal and are about $1.3MM from crossing the into the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. Signing either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery would require incurring relatively substantial taxes and, quite likely, crossing into the third tier of penalty and having their top pick in the draft pushed back 10 places. Houston will be taxed at that same 20% clip on the next $1.3MM added to the payroll, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax on the next $20MM spent. A $25MM AAV deal, for instance, would come with $8.9725MM of taxes. A $30MM AAV deal would trigger about $12.1MM of taxes. Adding anything more than $21-22MM in terms of AAV would also be enough to trigger that hit to their top pick in the draft, and Snell in particular would cost Houston their third-round pick. Like Hader, he rejected a qualifying offer.

Verlander’s timetable to recover will be worth keeping a close eye on not just for the potential roster ramifications and any contingency plans, however. He also has a vesting $35MM player option for the 2025 season that’ll kick in if he pitches 140 innings and if a third-party doctor confirms that Verlander does not have an arm injury (at season’s end) that’d keep him from being ready for the 2025 campaign. Notably, as a condition of the trade sending Verlander from Queens to Houston, the Mets are on the hook for $17.5MM of that option’s value if it vests and if Verlander picks it up.

It’s not yet clear just how long Verlander will be sidelined, but his season-opening IL stint paves the way for lefty Framber Valdez to make his second straight Opening Day start. He’d presumably be followed by a combination of right-handers Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown and, if he’s healthy, J.P. France.

Like Verlander, France has been slowed by some shoulder troubles this spring, although all reports out of Astros camp on his progress have been encouraging. The team has not yet indicated that Opening Day is in jeopardy for France. If he’s also sidelined, he’d join Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia as Houston starters on the injured list. In that scenario, right-handers Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak would likely be ticketed for the fifth spot on the staff.

AL West Notes: Astros, Sano, A’s

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Since being hired to helm the club’s baseball operations last winter, Astros GM Dana Brown has not been shy about the club’s interest in extending its core players. So far, that has yielded extensions for both right-hander Cristian Javier and second baseman Jose Altuve, with third baseman Alex Bregman and outfielder Kyle Tucker seemingly the club’s next priorities to negotiate with. With that being said, Brown recently indicated to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) that the club would have interest in looking into extensions for players with less service time, as has become commonplace in Atlanta, where Brown served as scouting director prior to joining the Astros.

Per Rome, that interest has not yet materialized in extension negotiations, at least when it comes to shortstop Jeremy Pena and right-hander Bryan Abreu. Pena finished fifth in AL Rookie of the Year voting during the 2022 season and earned a Gold Glove for his work at shortstop, but took a step back last season as he slashed .263/.324/.381 with just 10 home runs in 634 trips to the plate. Abreu, meanwhile, just turned in his second consecutive campaign with a sub-2.00 ERA out of the Astros bullpen, pitching to a 1.75 ERA in 72 innings of work while striking out a whopping 34.8% of batters faced. Pena remains under control through the end of the 2027 season, while Abreu can be controlled through at least 2026.

That the Astros have yet to engage either player in extension talks hardly precludes them from doing so in the future. While Rome relays that Pena recently declined to comment about his contract status, Abreu indicated that he’s open to offers from the team. Rome highlights sophomore catcher Yainer Diaz as another early-career extension candidate in Houston, with right-hander Hunter Brown and outfielder Chas McCormick among other speculative candidate who could make sense as potential extension targets for the club at some point.

More from around the AL West…

  • Prior to signing a minor league deal with the Angels this past winter, veteran slugger Miguel Sano spent the 2023 season hard at work at improving his health after being unable to secure even a non-roster deal with a club last winter on the heels of a 2022 season that saw him slash a ghastly .083/.211/.133 while being limited to just 20 games by knee injuries. During his season away from affiliated ball, The Athletic’s Sam Blum writes that Sano not only focused on keeping his knee healthy after undergoing surgery on it the year prior but also completely overhauled his diet and exercise regime. The results speak for themselves, as Sano entered the Halos’ camp this spring having shed 58 pounds since he last took the field in the big leagues. If Sano can work his way back onto the big league roster, he could be a source of right-handed power in Anaheim after hitting 162 homers in just 694 games during his eight years with the Twins.
  • In recent mailbag, Scott Ostler and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle relayed that earlier in the Athletics’ search for an interim home between the end of their lease at the Coliseum this fall and the construction of their new stadium in Las Vegas, which is expected to be complete in time for Opening Day 2028, the club considered a multi-city plan that would have seen the club play either 41 or 60 games at the Giants’ home stadium of Oracle Park while splitting the rest of the club’s games between Sacramento and Anaheim. This plan would have kept the A’s in compliance with their TV contract, which stipulates that the club must play at least 41 games in the Bay Area. Ostler and Shea go on to add that San Francisco wasn’t willing to offer the A’s more than 20 games at Oracle, however, and that a split schedule between multiple host cities is no longer under consideration as the club has since turned its attention towards negotiating a lease extension at the Coliseum.

AL Notes: Royals, Astros, McKay

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The Royals are entering the 2024 season with elevated expectations after the club spent more than $100MM in free agency this winter on top of a massive 11-year extension for franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. With that influx of free agent talent comes increased competition for spots on the club’s Opening Day roster. That excess of talent is particularly clear in the outfield, where manager Matt Quatraro recently indicated to reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that the club’s logjam is likely to result in the club carrying five outfielders on its roster to open the 2024 campaign.

Kansas City signed veteran outfield Hunter Renfroe to be the club’s regular right fielder, and Rogers suggests that glove-first center fielder and former top catching prospect MJ Melendez are the favorites to receive regular playing time on the grass alongside him. That leaves two spots on the bench available for a group that includes Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez, and Dairon Blanco. A former top prospect in the Braves farm system, Waters was shipped to the Royals midseason back in 2022 and has since slashed a decent .231/.306/.402 in 130 games with the club. Velazquez, meanwhile, joined the club at last year’s trade deadline in a deal with the Cubs and displayed prodigious power down the stretch with 14 home runs in just 40 games. Blanco, 31 next month, is by far the oldest of the trio but performed well in a part-time role last season, going 24-for-29 on the basepaths while slashing .258/.324/.452 in 69 games that saw him spend time in all three outfield spots.

With the club expecting to carry five outfielders on the roster to open the season, that significantly limits the paths to an Opening Day roster spot for other bench options. Veterans Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson both signed major league deals this past winter and appear locked into utility roles on the bench, and with Melendez now a full-time outfielder the Royals will have to enter the season with Freddy Fermin on the roster as the backup to veteran backstop Salvador Perez. That would seemingly leave little room on the club’s roster for Nick Pratto, the club’s first-round pick in the 2017 draft and a former top prospect. The first baseman has 144 big league games under his belt but has yet to establish himself in the majors, slashing just .216/.295/.364 in a combined 527 trips to the plate during that time.

More from around the American League…

  • Astros manager Joe Espada announced to reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that right-handers Justin Verlander and J.P. France will throw bullpen sessions tomorrow. Espada indicated last week that Verlander’s next bullpen would determine not only whether or not he would then progress to live hitting but also his readiness for Opening Day. If Verlander begins the season on the shelf, it’s possible his spot in the rotation could go to France, assuming that the 28-year-old avoids an injured list stint of his own. The righty impressed with a 3.83 ERA in 136 1/3 innings of work with the big league club last year, almost entirely out of the starting rotation. Should Verlander be healthy enough to make his Opening Day start, France would likely be left to compete for the fifth spot in the club’s rotation with the likes of Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak.
  • Rays southpaw Brendan McKay made his first professional appearance since undergoing Tommy John surgery late in the 2022 season today, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times spoke to the lefty following the appearance. Per Topkin, McKay expressed satisfaction with his progress, indicating that his curveball is “getting better” while his fastball, which Topkin adds sat at 90 while touching 91, is “in a good spot” to gain more velocity going forward. McKay typically sat at 94 with his heater when he last pitched in the majors in 2019, though the former top prospect and fourth-overall pick of the 2017 draft has dealt with both Tommy John surgery and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome since then. Once a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport, it’s easy to imagine McKay impacting the club’s pitching staff at some point this season if he can remain healthy.

Astros Notes: Verlander, Whitley, McCormick

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Astros ace Justin Verlander discussed his ongoing shoulder issues with reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) today, and his comments shed little light on whether the veteran righty will be able to take the mound on Opening Day next month.

“We still got some time, obviously it’s tight, but things are progressing,” Verlander told reporters, as relayed by Rome. “…We’re not even looking a week out or two weeks out, so it’s kind of hard to forecast anything past that.”

Verlander went on to make clear that he’s feeling no discomfort in his shoulder, adding that “Every day I touch the mound has been progression.” While the veteran ace has yet to face live hitting this spring, Rome adds that manager Joe Espada indicated Verlander could start to face live hitting “at some point” after his next bullpen session, adding that said bullpen would likely “determine” Verlander’s readiness for Opening Day.

Verlander, who celebrated his 41st birthday last week, followed up his AL Cy Young award winning campaign in 2022 with a solid 2023 split between the Mets and Astros. In 27 starts between the two clubs, the right-hander pitched to a strong 3.22 ERA in 162 1/3 innings of work. That being said, his 21.5% strikeout rate last year was the lowest he had posted since 2015, leaving him with a 3.85 FIP that puts him closer to “solid mid-rotation arm” than “surefire ace.” Even if Verlander isn’t the dominant pitcher he was in his late 30s now that he’s entered his 40s, however, the right-hander figures to be a key piece of the Astros rotation alongside Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier. Should Verlander miss time to start the season, that would likely leave Houston to lean more heavily on their back-of-the-rotation arms such as Jose Urquidy and Hunter Brown.

More from out of Houston…

  • Espada also provided an update regarding the status of right-hander Forrest Whitley, who Rome relays has been dealing with inflammation in his middle finger. Espada indicated that while that inflammation has now subsided, Whitley will be sat down for the next week on a no-throw program. Once a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport, the Astros’ first-round pick in the 2016 draft has not yet made his big league debut despite being on the 40-man roster since 2020 due to a lengthy injury history and a 50-game suspension for violating the league’s drug policy. Whitley has struggled badly as a started at the Triple-A level, with an 8.04 ERA in 87 1/3 career innings at the level, but figures to work exclusively out of the bullpen going forward and entered camp with a chance to compete for a spot in the club’s bullpen this spring.
  • Outfielder Chas McCormick is expected to step into a larger role with Houston in 2024, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart notes that both Espada and GM Dana Brown have indicated that McCormick will be an everyday player this season. The 28-year-old slashed an impressive .273/.353/.489 (133 wRC+) last year but appeared in only 115 games while making 457 trips to the plate. The retirement of veteran left fielder Michael Brantley has opened up additional playing time in the club’s outfield mix, however, and it appears that McCormick could be a major beneficiary of that playing time. With Jake Meyers as the club’s likely starting center fielder, that figures to push McCormick to left for the most part, though McTaggart indicates that McCormick could see time in center on days where Yainer Diaz moves from behind the plate to DH, pushing superstar slugger Yordan Alvarez into left field.

Astros Notes: Verlander, France, Framber, Bullpen

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Astros camp kicked off last week with the revelation that right-handers Justin Verlander and J.P. France were both slightly behind schedule due to shoulder troubles. Both, however, have been progressing nicely over the past week-plus. Verlander tossed a bullpen session today, after which manager Joe Espada told reporters he’s “encouraged” with his ace’s progression from that shoulder issue (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). France, meanwhile, pitched off a mound Wednesday — his first time doing so after being limited to flat ground work at the beginning of camp (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

It’s a positive step for both pitchers, though the team still hasn’t declared with any certainty that both players will be ready for Opening Day. If he’s healthy, Verlander would be the presumptive favorite to start Opening Day. France, meanwhile, figures to compete for a spot at the back of the rotation after impressing as a 28-year-old rookie in 2023. Houston manager Joe Espada has raised the possibility of a six-man rotation this year, which would allow France to continue starting alongside Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and Jose Urquidy. That’s not set in stone at this point and will of course be dependent on how both righties continue to progress.

On the topic of Valdez, Chandler Rome of the Athletic wrote earlier this week that the left-hander says he has not yet received any sort of extension offer from the team this winter. Houston general manager Dana Brown listed Valdez as an extension target last offseason not long after being hired, and while the team and Valdez discussed parameters last spring, there was a sufficient enough gap that no deal was reached.

Valdez, 30, is controllable through the 2025 season. He and the Astros agreed to a $12.1MM salary for the upcoming season, avoiding an arbitration hearing in doing so. He’s finished ninth or better on each of the past two Cy Young ballots and touts a 3.13 ERA, a 23.5% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate and a massive 63% ground-ball rate in 534 regular season innings, dating back to 2021. Valdez’s name briefly surfaced in trade rumors earlier in the winter, but a deal never seemed especially likely and now feels even less plausible with Verlander and France behind schedule. If anything, Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to constantly be adding to his pitching depth.

Elsewhere on the pitching staff, the Astros are set for an unusual amount of competition in the bullpen this spring, Kawahara writes in a full column. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu are locked into late-inning roles, and Rafael Montero’s three-year, $34.5MM contract (covering the 2023-25 seasons) assures him a spot as well. But the Astros lost Phil Maton and Hector Neris to free agency already, and they don’t seem especially likely to re-sign Ryne Stanek, either. They’ll also be without Kendall Graveman, who’ll miss the season due to shoulder surgery.

Among the options to step into prominent bullpen roles are righties Brandon Bielak, Ronel Blanco, Dylan Coleman, Shawn Dubin, Seth Martinez, Forrest Whitley and Oliver Ortega. All are on the 40-man roster, as are southpaws Parker Mushinski and Bennett Sousa. Righty Wander Suero is the most experienced non-roster invitee in camp.

Brown, the team’s general manager, tells Kawahara that the team will “take a close look” at Coleman in particular. Both Espada and pitching coach Josh Miller praised Coleman’s raw stuff and cited a belief that the Astros can get him back to his 2022 form, when he posted a 2.78 ERA, fanned nearly a quarter of his opponents and sat just shy of 98 mph with his heater. The 2023 season was a disaster for Coleman, however, as he posted an 8.84 ERA and walked 19 batters in 18 1/3 innings with Kansas City.

Sousa, too, will get strong consideration. Brown noted to Kawahara that if he’d been acquired prior to the Sept. 1 postseason eligibility deadline last year, he’d likely have been on Houston’s playoff rosters. Espada indicated that he doesn’t feel compelled to have a second lefty in the ’pen beyond Hader and is focused primarily on just carrying the best group the team has, regardless of handedness. Still, Sousa posted interesting strikeout, walk and swinging-strike rates in a small sample last season (29.4%, 5.9% and 12.9%, respectively) and has fanned nearly a third of his career opponents in parts of three Triple-A seasons.

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