Mets Rumors

NL Notes: Benn, Mets, De La Cruz, Reds, Mitchell, Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | February 27, 2022 at 5:13pm CDT

The Mets have hired Elizabeth Benn as the team’s new director of baseball operations, according to multiple reports (including from SNY’s Andy Martino). Benn has been a member of the MLB central office since 2017, beginning as an intern and then working in the labor relations and baseball operations departments. The hiring makes Benn the highest-ranking female baseball ops official in the history of the Mets franchise, as Benn joins the increasingly long list of women hired for prominent front office and on-field jobs with Major League organizations.

Latest On Freddie Freeman

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | February 25, 2022 at 4:23pm CDT

Freddie Freeman’s ultimate free-agent destination has been one of the more fascinating storylines of the offseason. At the outset of free agency, most felt a reunion with the Braves was a fait accompli, but as Freeman’s stay on the market has lingered, there’s been increasing speculation about him signing elsewhere.

We can’t know when we’ll get a resolution, thanks to the ongoing lockout, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s an industry sense that Freeman will act quickly once the transaction freeze lifts. Specifically, Sherman suggests that within 48 hours of the freeze lifting, Freeman’s “path will be publicly known.” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested something similar, albeit without the specific timeline, when writing late last month that both Freeman and the Braves could “act quickly” post-lockout.

Freeman’s fate is a renewed talking point among Braves fans in the wake of this morning’s earnings report from Liberty Media, which owns the Braves, although the newly available public insight into the team’s financials likely has little to no impact on their pursuit of Freeman. It’s always been a question of whether ownership and/or the front office deems Freeman’s asking price to be a prudent long-term move for the organization, and the team knew those figures would be going public at this point.

Perhaps more interesting, however, is Sherman’s suggestion that one theoretical Freeman suitor, the Blue Jays, has been given ownership approval for a “large increase in payroll” even after the additions of George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios over the past year-plus. The Jays’ desire to add a left-handed bat to the mix isn’t exactly a new revelation; they reportedly pursued Corey Seager prior to his deal with the Rangers and have been speculatively tied to names like Kyle Schwarber and the since-retired Kyle Seager. The Jays were even linked to Freeman as far back as Nov. 30. More recently, Rosenthal said on Sportsnet that he expects the Jays to be involved on Freeman whenever the lockout lifts (video link).

Toronto is just one speculative alternative, and Freeman has also been heavily linked to the Dodgers and Yankees in addition to the incumbent Braves. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested in a recent appearance on the Michael Kay Show (audio link, with Freeman talk starting around 11 minutes) that the Mets at least “checked in” on Freeman prior to the lockout, although SNY’s Andy Martino wrote this morning that the chances of a Freeman/Mets deal coming together border on nonexistent. Olney, too, mentions the Blue Jays as a team that has inquired on Freeman (along with the Dodgers), and he more broadly discusses a growing industry sentiment that Freeman won’t return to the Braves.

The Braves’ best offer to this point has reportedly been a five-year, $135MM contract. He’s said to be eyeing a six-year pact on the heels of another outstanding season. Freeman followed up his 2020 NL MVP Award with a .300/.393/.503 showing and 31 home runs during the regular season, plus a .304/.420/.625 line with five home runs in 69 postseason plate appearances. It was yet another impressive season for the ever-reliable first baseman, who has a wRC+ of 132 or better (indicating he’s been at least 32 percentage points more productive than the league average hitter) every year since 2013.

It’s certainly possible the Braves and Freeman can yet bridge the gap that remained in talks through the imposition of the lockout. Yet Atlanta has at least explored some alternatives. The Braves reportedly looked into Anthony Rizzo as a free agent possibility, and they’ve been mentioned as a potential trade partner with the A’s on Matt Olson on multiple occasions. Sherman speaks with a few agents and one rival executive who speculate that Atlanta could even pivot to pursuing an Olson trade between the time the lockout is lifted and when Freeman signs. The executive notes that someone like Kyle Wright — a big league ready starter who was formerly a top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect — fits the mold of the near-MLB talent the A’s could look for in an Olson deal. Wright no longer has the trade value to center a package that could persuade the A’s to part with Olson, but he’d be a sensible option for Oakland to explore as an ancillary piece in talks with Atlanta.

That’s conjecture from people outside the Atlanta organization, to be clear. What president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff have planned for the post-lockout scramble won’t become evident until offseason activity actually resumes. Yet the growing industry chatter reinforces that Freeman remaining in Atlanta may not be the lock many anticipated as the Braves entered the offseason riding high on a World Series title, particularly as other possible suitors loom.

Mets, Felix Pena Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | February 25, 2022 at 1:30pm CDT

The Mets have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Felix Pena, per the team’s transactions log. The former Cubs and Angels righty will presumably be in big league camp whenever it opens and will give New York some valuable depth in either the rotation or the bullpen. Pena was eligible to sign during the lockout because he was released by the Angels in September and did not return to a 40-man roster before season’s end.

Pena, who turns 32 today, was a quality swingman with the Halos from 2018-20, logging a combined 215 2/3 innings of 4.34 ERA ball with a 23.6% strikeout rate, a 7.7% walk rate and a 43.4% ground-ball rate. Those strikeout and grounder rates are both roughly in line with the league averages, while Pena’s walk rate checked in better than average. He’s not a flamethrowing power arm, but Pena sat 92.3 mph on his heater during that three-year stretch in Anaheim and has made 24 starts at the MLB level in addition to another 80 relief outings. He’s worked 142 innings in those 80 bullpen appearances, so he’s no stranger to multi-inning work.

A torn ACL ended Pena’s season in Aug. 2019, but he bounced back with a solid showing in the shortened 2020 schedule (4.05 ERA in 26 2/3 frames). His 2021 bordered on nightmarish, however. Pena missed the first six weeks of the season owing to a hamstring injury and was shelled for seven runs in 1 2/3 innings in his first two appearances upon returning. The Angels passed him through outright waivers not long after, and Pena went on to yield 61 earned runs through 68 1/3 innings in Triple-A Salt Lake before being released. He’s been lights out in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, though, posting a 1.91 ERA and a 27-to-7 K/BB ratio in 33 innings.

At present, the Mets’ rotation is expected to consist of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker, with options like Trevor Williams, David Peterson and Tylor Megill vying for the fifth spot. It’s possible one or more of those current fifth-starter candidates could land in a deep group of relievers that’ll be headlined by Edwin Diaz, Trevor May, Seth Lugo and Miguel Castro.

The Mets are widely expected to add another established arm to the rotation whenever the lockout ends, and there’s probably room for a lefty in the bullpen as well (particularly following the departure of Aaron Loup). Pena can compete for a long relief spot in the bullpen or head to Triple-A Syracuse, where he’ll serve as a quality depth option. In a total of 260 2/3 innings, Pena carries a 4.66 ERA and 4.05 SIERA to go along with strikeout, walk and ground-ball tendencies that are all within arm’s reach of the league average.

Oliver Perez Announces Plans To Retire After Playing 2022 Season In Mexican League

By Anthony Franco | February 21, 2022 at 10:11pm CDT

Longtime major league pitcher Oliver Pérez will retire after playing out the 2022 season with the Toros de Tijuana of the Mexican League, the Toros announced (on Twitter) last week. When the 40-year-old does officially step away, it’ll mark the end of a professional career that spanned over two decades.

He began that run in April 1999, signing with the Padres as an amateur free agent out of Mexico. He spent the next few seasons ascending the minor league ladder, reaching the majors before his 21st birthday in 2002. He spent around a year with the Friars before they shipped him alongside Jason Bay to the Pirates for Brian Giles.

Pérez was downright excellent during his first full season with the Bucs. He tossed 196 innings of 2.98 ERA ball in 2004, striking out 29.7% of opponents. That came at a time when the leaguewide strikeout rate was far lower than it is now, and Pérez’s mark trailed only those of Randy Johnson and Johan Santana among 89 qualified starters.

Even at his best, Pérez struggled somewhat to throw strikes. Walks became an increasing problem, and the southpaw had his share of ups and downs over the next few seasons. Pittsburgh traded him to the Mets as part of a package to acquire Xavier Nady at the trade deadline in 2006, and he logged the next four and a half seasons in Queens. Pérez had a pair of productive seasons to start his Mets tenure, combining for a 3.91 ERA across 371 frames between 2007-08. Yet his walk and home run rates spiked to untenable levels the following couple seasons, and the Mets moved him to the bullpen midway through the 2010 campaign.

After spending 2011 as a starter in the Nationals’ system but failing to return to the majors, he moved to the bullpen full-time. That proved to be a career turning point for Pérez. He’d enjoy a decade-long second act as a reliever, bouncing between a handful of teams but generally thriving in a situational role. Working in shorter stints, Pérez proved more successful than he’d been as a starter with regards to throwing strikes. He posted an ERA below 4.00 in all three seasons from 2012-14 while playing for the Mariners and Diamondbacks. His ERA spiked over the next three seasons, but Pérez consistently posted strong peripherals in relief during stints with the Astros and Nationals.

After minor league deals with the Reds and Yankees didn’t result in a big league opportunity, Pérez looked as if he might be nearing the end of his career in 2018. He caught on with the Indians midseason, though, and he proved an invaluable weapon for skipper Terry Francona down the stretch. The veteran specialist impressively made 50 appearances from June 2 onward, working to a 1.39 ERA with a 35.8% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk percentage.

That offseason, he returned to Cleveland on a one-year guarantee with a vesting option for 2020. He triggered that provision by making 67 appearances (with a 3.98 ERA) in 2019. Pérez continued to get solid results during the shortened season, but his peripherals went in the wrong direction. He re-upped with Cleveland on a minor league deal last winter. While he made the roster out of Spring Training, the Indians designated him for assignment in late April. Pérez latched on with the Toros in May. After pitching to a 2.63 ERA in 24 outings with the Mexican League club, he’ll return for another season in Tijuana to finish out his career.

Pérez had a winding, remarkable run during his time in the majors. He appeared in 19 of the 20 MLB seasons between 2002-21, suiting up with eight different clubs at the big league level. While he never established himself as a consistently productive rotation member over multiple years, Pérez posted top-of-the-rotation numbers over a full season in 2004 and intermittently looked like a solid starter at other points. Yet upon reinventing himself as a reliever, he proved a reliably effective option for various clubs. From 2012 onwards, Pérez posted a 3.42 ERA over 490 relief outings. He was especially challenging for same-handed opponents, holding lefty batters to a cumulative .229/.300/.337 slash in that time.

Overall, Pérez posted a 4.34 ERA in 1,461 2/3 big league innings. He punched out 1,545 batters, was credited with 73 wins and held 105 leads in a set-up capacity. According to Baseball Reference, Pérez earned a bit under $53MM in salary over the course of his lengthy big league career. MLBTR congratulates him on his accomplishments and wishes him all the best in his upcoming season with the Toros and his post-playing days.

NL East Notes: Morton, Braves, Allan, Nationals

By Mark Polishuk | February 19, 2022 at 5:49pm CDT

As Charlie Morton continues to recover from a fractured fibula, the veteran righty said last week that he is “mostly caught up” to where he’d be physically at this point in a normal offseason, The Athletic’s David O’Brien writes. Morton did caution that he wouldn’t know for sure until he actually got back to regular action in a Spring Training environment, though for now, all seems good for Morton as he approaches his 15th Major League season. Still in fine form last year, Morton was a big contributor to the Braves’ championship team, though the righty’s participation in the World Series was limited to just 2 1/3 innings after he was hit in the leg by a ball off the bat of Yuli Gurriel during Game One. Three of Morton’s seven outs were recorded after the injury, as Morton gutted out the pain as long as he could.

Assuming Morton is healthy, he’ll represent one less question mark for an Atlanta roster that is already largely set (with the obvious exception of first base and the Freddie Freeman situation). With the lockout now forcing some type of shortened or even a rushed Spring Training, this could play to the Braves’ favor, as they already have a familiar chemistry between the coaching staff and the players, plus most of the World Series-winning core group will be returning.

Showalter: Mets Not Ruling Out Possibility Of Adding To The Outfield

By Anthony Franco | February 18, 2022 at 8:11pm CDT

The Mets were one of the league’s most active teams before the lockout, and a significant portion of their early-offseason work came in the outfield. Just hours after agreeing to terms with corner outfielder Mark Canha on a two-year deal, the Mets reached an accord with center fielder Starling Marte on a four-year pact.

Despite that ample activity, new manager Buck Showalter said he and general manager Billy Eppler haven’t ruled out the possibility of further additions. “[The outfield] is something we have talked about, where we are,” Showalter told reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post) at New York’s minor league camp this afternoon. “We are on the same page with everything where that is concerned. It’s a scenario that we are examining to see if we feel comfortable with it. We’re always going to look within first.”

That’s obviously well short of a declaration that the Mets definitely will add outfield help whenever the transactions freeze concludes. Yet it’s notable they’re at least keeping that door open despite plenty of in-house options. Canha seems the presumptive favorite for work in left field, while Marte looks likely to play center field. That’d push Brandon Nimmo to right, although the Mets incumbent center fielder doesn’t seem enamored with that alignment.

Speaking with Tim Healey of Newsday this week, Nimmo suggested he’d prefer to remain in center field. The 28-year-old pointed out that public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average both graded him as a plus there last season. It was Nimmo’s best defensive performance in the estimation of those statistics, and a marked improvement over his -5 DRS and -4 OAA from 2020. Nimmo suggested that uptick is evidence that “if you give me information, if you allow me to make the adjustments, I will give it everything I got. I was very, very proud of the difference in the numbers from ’20 to ’21 and doing what they asked me to do and improving there.”

Nimmo, who is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility, also acknowledged to Healey that playing center field could be an added bonus as he’s on track to hit free agency next winter. The former first-round pick said he’d be open to discussing an extension with the Mets after the lockout but said the team and his representatives at the Boras Corporation hadn’t begun those discussions in the first stages of the offseason.

Whether the Mets will oblige Nimmo’s desire to stick in center, of course, remains an open question. He’d have little recourse other to play a corner outfield spot if the Mets penciled him into the lineup there, and he tells Healey he’s willing to do whatever the team asks anyhow. Yet it’s clear from his comments that Nimmo values the opportunity to continue playing up the middle, so Showalter and his staff will need to determine how they want to arrange that group on a regular basis. Marte was an excellent left fielder earlier in his career, but he’s not started a single game outside of center since 2017. There’s little doubt he could successfully readapt to a corner spot if necessary, but the Mets may prefer their defensive alignment with Marte up the middle and Nimmo in a corner.

As Showalter suggested today, there’s also the possibility of additional changes from a personnel perspective. New York could look into further free agent or trade pickups, although it seems likelier those would be of a depth variety given the moves they’ve already made. The Mets also have a trio of high-profile trade candidates with corner outfield experience. Each of Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith has played left or right field in years past. They’d presumably be options to see some time out there again, but the Mets could look to move one or more members of that group after the lockout.

Mets Add Danny Barnes To Major League Coaching Staff

By Steve Adams | February 18, 2022 at 12:05pm CDT

The Mets have hired former Blue Jays right-hander Danny Barnes as an assistant coach on the Major League staff, manager Buck Showalter announced to reporters Friday (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). Barnes, 32, will have a broad-reaching role in the newly created coaching position, Showalter added.

“He’s played in the big leagues, knows his way around the major league locker room,” Showalter said (link via Danny Abriano of SNY). “…We didn’t get too titled up. … He can do a little bit of everything.”

A 35th-round draft pick of the Blue Jays back in 2010, Barnes reached the Majors in 2016, tossing 13 2/3 innings while yielding six runs on 14 hits and five walks with 14 punchouts. He was a regular member of the Toronto the following season — his lone full year at the MLB level. Barnes racked up 66 innings of 3.55 ERA ball and finished off 13 games for the ’17 Jays, but the pendulum swung in the other direction in 2018. In 41 frames that season, Barnes was clobbered for a 5.71 ERA as his strikeout, walk and hard-contact rates all went in the wrong direction.

Barnes became a free agent following the 2019 season and had been set to join the Orioles for the 2020 campaign, but the pandemic-driven shutdown left him in limbo. Barnes wasn’t included in Baltimore’s 60-man player pool during the shortened season and became a free agent again last winter, at which point he signed on with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League. Barnes tossed 16 1/3 solid frames for the Ducks in 2021, but it seems he’ll now transition into the next phase of his baseball career.

In parts of three big league seasons, Barnes logged 120 2/3 innings with a 4.33 ERA, and he managed a 2.69 ERA in 344 2/3 frames over the course of ten seasons in the minors. He’ll join a Mets coaching staff that already includes a handful of former big leaguers. Jeremy Hefner is slated to return as the team’s pitching coach in 2022 and the Mets tabbed Eric Chavez as their new hitting coach recently as well. Former infielder Joey Cora (third base coach) and outfielder Wayne Kirby (first base coach), both of whom last appeared in the bigs in 1998, were also both hired to the staff over the winter.

The Mets Have A Decision To Make Behind The Plate

By Anthony Franco | February 11, 2022 at 6:30pm CDT

The Mets entered the 2020-21 offseason in need of an answer behind the plate. After two seasons as the primary backstop in Queens, Wilson Ramos hit the open market. Entering his age-33 season with defensive question marks, Ramos didn’t profile as a long-term solution anyhow.

There was plenty of speculation heading into the winter about the possibility of New York making a run at J.T. Realmuto. The two-time Silver Slugger Award winner lingered longer in free agency than the Mets appeared to want to wait, though. Instead, they pivoted to free agency’s second-best backstop. In December 2020, they inked James McCann to a four-year, $40.6MM deal.

It was an eyebrow-raising investment. Heading into the offseason, MLBTR projected McCann for a two-year, $20MM guarantee. The Mets offered more than double that amount, betting that he’d broken out later in his career after signing with the White Sox before the 2019 campaign. Over two seasons in Chicago, McCann had hit .276/.334/.474 (114 wRC+). During the 2020 shortened season, his pitch framing — which had been below-average throughout his career — was graded positively as well.

The Mets clearly felt McCann had turned a corner, believing he’d developed into at least a capable #1 catcher. Unfortunately for the organization, his production dropped substantially during his first season in Flushing. The University of Arkansas product hit .232/.294/.349 (80 wRC+) with ten home runs across 412 plate appearances, less productive than the .229/.305/.391 mark (89 wRC+) compiled by backstops leaguewide. Statcast pegged him as a below-average framer, albeit only slightly. McCann’s 27% caught stealing rate was solid, but he didn’t match his 2019-20 production either at the plate or in the eyes of the public defensive metrics.

McCann’s 2021 dip could leave the Mets with an interesting decision. There are certainly reasons New York could opt to stick with him as the primary backstop. He’s due another $32.45MM through 2024, for starters. One could argue that investment has already been made and the Mets shouldn’t let it impact their decision whether to stick with McCann going forward, but they wouldn’t be the first team to give a longer leash to a veteran playing on a fairly notable contract. Even independent of finances, New York might simply believe McCann’s primed to bounce back. The Mets valued him enough last winter to sign him for a deal above expectations. He’s generally highly-regarded as a leader and for his ability to work with pitching staffs. That’s not an easily quantifiable trait, but it’s one organizations no doubt value immensely.

Yet there are also reasons to think the Mets may not be so patient. They’ve been one of baseball’s most aggressive teams this winter, signing Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha. It’s an absolute win-now situation, and owner Steve Cohen hasn’t shown many qualms about spending. The Mets already have a projected player payroll in the $263MM range (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource), and they’re reportedly willing to push near the $300MM mark if the situation presents itself. New general manager Billy Eppler wasn’t part of the organization when McCann was signed. Nor was manager Buck Showalter (although team president Sandy Alderson is still around). It’s possible Eppler and Showalter aren’t especially bullish on the 31-year-old backstop’s chances of a rebound year.

Bolstering the starting rotation is likely to be the priority for the Mets coming out of the lockout, but making a move at catcher wouldn’t seem all that far-fetched. It presently appears to be the weakest position player group on the depth chart. The Mets are hellbent on winning in 2022 after missing the playoffs for the fifth consecutive year. The other options on the 40-man roster — Tomás Nido and Patrick Mazeika — would probably be miscast as regulars. If Mets brass isn’t confident in McCann regaining his 2019-20 form, they could look into alternatives.

There’s probably no one available in free agency who’d be better than McCann. There could be an opportunity to explore a deal that brings in a new backstop via trade. Willson Contreras, for instance, is one of the likeliest players around the league to be moved before the start of the season. He’s only controllable through next season, but that kind of short-term add might be preferable for the Mets anyhow. Baseball America recently ranked catching prospect Francisco Álvarez the top talent in the New York farm system, among the top 15 farmhands in the sport. The Mets presumably view Álvarez as the catcher of the future, but he’s yet to reach Double-A and just turned 20 years old, so expecting him to make a big league impact this year would be optimistic.

Contreras, to be clear, is only a speculative possibility. There’s no indication the Mets and Cubs have discussed a deal. Yet a trade for a catcher could be a way for the Mets to make another bold strike after the transactions freeze, a chance to upgrade perhaps their weakest position on the diamond. Whether they explore trade scenarios seems likely to come down to how the organization feels about McCann after an underwhelming first season in Queens.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

By Tim Dierkes | February 8, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts. Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet. Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point. Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place. Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market. We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets. The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars. One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected. For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three. Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll. Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt. Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration. He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March. Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+. Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards. It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson. He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected. The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal. Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game. The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2. Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018. It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends. Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+. In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019. Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19. He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021. Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors. The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing. A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining. We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022. The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3. Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation. We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration. Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA. While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01. He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September. Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency. He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4. Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate. It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out. Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday. Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time. In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best. Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage. Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September. He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas? He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5. Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post. The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022. He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate. Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6. After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72. Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings. After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either. So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable. He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6. Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings. The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer. Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball. The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout. They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again. That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary. Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable. I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen. The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7. Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons. He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards. With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario. Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017. He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger. Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field. Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over. The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8. Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list. Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency. They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH. A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano. But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021. It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested? Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game. After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties. He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21. Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July. He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old. He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining. I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH. The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9. J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022. He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020. This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October. By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart. While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22. As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit. Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21. A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well. It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average. It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position. On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs. While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis. I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10. Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here. As such, he’s the least likely to be traded. In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20. Escobar is also capable of playing second base. McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well. It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays. Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected. A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20. Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period. A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well. McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021. McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month. He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat. 30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11. Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job. As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well. Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher. Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career. WAR is always tricky with catchers. FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross. The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency. Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras. At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload. The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending. A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends. A midseason trade is a possibility as well. The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12. Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade. He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19. His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain. Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19. He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration. He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return. Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13. Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi. After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th. Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month. In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches. In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury. Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart. 32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year. He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings. You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season. The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14. Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees. However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production. This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee. He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time. We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year. He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry! We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

Gerald Williams Passes Away

By Steve Adams | February 8, 2022 at 1:30pm CDT

Former Yankees, Mets, Devil Rays, Braves, Brewers and Marlins outfielder Gerald Williams passed away today at 55 years of age, former teammate and close friend Derek Jeter announced (via the Players’ Tribune).

“Gerald Williams passed away this morning after a battle with cancer,” Jeter said in his statement announcing the saddening news. “To my teammate and one of my best friends in the world, rest in peace, my brother. My thoughts and prayers are with his wife, Liliana, and their whole family.”

Williams, originally a 14th-round pick by the Yankees back in 1987, debuted as a 25-year-old during the 1992 season — the first step in what would become a 14-year career at the MLB level. That journey took him to six different organizations and spanned 1168 games. Williams, nicknamed “Ice,” posted a career .255/.301/.410 batting line with 85 home runs, 183 doubles, 18 triples, 106 stolen bases, 474 runs scored and another 365 runs driven in. Yankee fans may fondly remember an impressive first-inning grab by Williams back in May or 1996, which seemed innocuous at the time but wound up proving a pivotal play in what would eventually become a Doc Gooden no-hitter (YouTube link).

Williams and Jeter were teammates for the Yankees’ postseason appearance in 1995, and he returned to the playoffs with Atlanta in both 1998 and 1999. He played a huge role in the Braves’ 3-1 National League Division Series win over the Astros in ’99, going 7-for-18 (.389) with a double, a pair of runs scored, three RBIs and a stolen base in that four-game set. A member of both the 1996 Yankees and 2003 Marlins, Williams received a pair of World Series rings (even though the Yankees traded him to the Brewers in August of ’96).

Williams’ two best seasons came with the ’98 Braves, when he hit .305/352/.504 with 10 homers in a part-time role, and in 2000 with Tampa Bay, when he saw regular action in the outfield. Williams logged a career-high 682 plate appearances in his first of two seasons with the then-Devil Rays, adding in a career-best 21 home runs, 30 doubles, a pair of triples and 12 steals.

Most pro ball players can only dream of a 14-year run at the game’s top level — and that’s particularly true among players selected well down the draft board, as was the case with Williams. We at MLBTR offer our condolences to Williams’ family, his friends, his former teammates and the thousands of fans who took joy in rooting him on over the course of his decade-plus in the Majors.

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