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Blue Jays Reportedly Optimistic About Signing Yariel Rodríguez

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The Blue Jays are optimistic about landing right-hander Yariel Rodríguez, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That meshes with reporting last month from Enrique Rojas of ESPN, who said that the Jays had “taken the lead” in the righty’s market. Per today’s report from Rosenthal, immigration issues have prevented the deal from being made official. It’s unclear what exactly those issues are or when they are expected to be resolved.

Rodríguez, 27 in March, started his career in his home country of Cuba. He pitched in the Cuban National Series starting in the 2015-16 season when he was just 18 years of age. He eventually pitched in 91 games in that league, starting 72 of them, posting a combined earned run average of 3.30 over 464 1/3 innings.

He joined the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2020 season, though that club kept him in a relief role. His three NPB seasons resulted in 175 1/3 innings with a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 25.4% of batters faced while walking 10.4%. In 2022, he seemed to find a new gear, with a 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 innings, striking out 27.5% of opponents while walking just 8.3%.

He pitched for Cuba in the 2023 World Baseball Classic and then didn’t return to Japan. While he was able to secure his release from the Dragons and be declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, he wasn’t able to pitch in official games last year after the WBC.

He has received widespread interest this offseason, with some clubs viewing him as capable of returning to a starting role. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted he could secure a four-year, $32MM contract. That’s roughly in the same ballpark as a couple of other pitchers who are possibly moving from the bullpen to a rotation. Reynaldo López signed with Atlanta for three years and $30MM while Jordan Hicks landed with the Giants for $44MM over four. Both of those pitchers have been effective relievers in recent years but will try to get stretched out as starters this spring.

The appeal of Rodríguez would likely be similar. If he turns out to be a viable starter, it would be a boon for the club that signs him, with a relief role serving as an acceptable fallback plan. Rodríguez might be a bit of a long-term project as a starter after missing out on the 2023 season, making a sudden jump to a full-time starter’s workload a tall ask.

The Jays already have four fifths of this year’s rotation spoken for, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi all returning from last year’s club. The fifth spot is more open, with Hyun Jin Ryu now a free agent. Alek Manoah was a Cy Young candidate as recently as 2022 but it’s unclear how much faith the club has in him right now. The 2023 season saw him struggle and get optioned to the minors twice, which seemed to sour the relationship between him and the club. He may still be the favorite for the final rotation job but his name has also appeared in plenty of trade rumors this offseason. Prospect Ricky Tiedemann reached Triple-A last year and could be nearing his major league debut but was only able to log 44 innings on the year due to injury, plus another 18 in the Arizona Fall League. Mitch White and Bowden Francis could be in the mix as well but neither has a lengthy major league track record.

It’s plausible that Rodriguez could factor into that competition and log some innings in 2024. Kikuchi is slated for free agency after the upcoming campaign, Bassitt after 2025 and Gausman after 2026, which leaves future rotation innings for the Jays to fill. There’s also long-term uncertainty in the bullpen, where Yimi García and Trevor Richards are slated for free agency after 2024. Meanwhile, each of Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Chad Green, Tim Mayza and Génesis Cabrera are slated for the open market after 2025.

The Jays have had a somewhat quiet offseason thus far, in terms of completed deals. They’ve been connected to big names like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto but their most notable moves thus far have been to sign utility player Isiah Kiner-Falefa and re-sign outfielder Kevin Kiermaier. Roster Resource estimates the club’s payroll is at $221MM, just a bit above last year’s $215MM, with their competitive balance tax figure at $231MM.

The club’s CEO/president Mark Shapiro had previously indicated this year’s payroll would likely be similar to last year’s. Signing Rodríguez and/or some bats to upgrade the lineup would require them to push the payroll a little farther than it already is while also nudging them past the $237MM base threshold of the CBT. The Jays paid the tax for the first time last year and their base tax rate would jump from 20% to 30% as a second-time payor.

Blue Jays Claim Brian Serven Off Waivers From Cubs

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The Blue Jays announced that they have claimed catcher Brian Serven off waivers from the Cubs. The latter club designated him for assignment last week. Toronto’s 40-man roster is now full.

Serven, 29 in May, had spent his entire career with the Rockies until earlier this month. He was claimed off waivers by the Cubs a couple of weeks ago and now changes organizations once again. He had been serving as a depth catcher for Colorado, getting into 73 big league games over the past two seasons. He’s hit just .195/.248/.314 in his first 228 major league plate appearances, though that’s a small sample and he’s fared better at Triple-A. Over the past three years, he has slashed .238/.305/.450 at the top level of the minors.

On the gloveside, Serven has generally been given strong grades. He has five Defensive Runs Saved in his small sample of big league action while each of FanGraphs, Statcast and Baseball Prospectus have looked fondly upon his framing, with BP also liking his receiving in the minors.

The Jays have Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk set to be their catching duo in the big leagues, but they lost depth catcher Tyler Heineman off waivers earlier in the winter. This claim of Serven gives the club a third catcher who still has a pair of option years remaining. He should be able to take regular at-bats in Triple-A until an injury creates a need for him to join the big league club, assuming he hangs onto his 40-man roster spot through the rest of the offseason.

Blue Jays Reportedly “Monitoring” Blake Snell’s Market

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In the aftermath of the offseason’s top free agent pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, signing with the Dodgers late last month, the market for #2 pitching free agent Blake Snell has begun to pick up. The Red Sox, Phillies, Giants, and Angels have all been connected to Snell in recent weeks and the Yankees are known to have made an offer for the lefty’s services. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provides details on that offer, suggesting that while Snell’s camp is seeking “at least $240MM” this winter, the Yankees’ offer came in “nearly $100MM” below that target.

Since those initial connections, both the Giants and Yankees have made rotation additions that might take them out of the market for Snell: The Giants picked up Robbie Ray in trade with the Mariners and signed Jordan Hicks to bolster their rotation mix, while the Yankees added Marcus Stroman to their own starting five. While it’s unclear whether or not either club’s interest in Snell persists beyond those additions, it’s at least fair to say that they’re in a less desperate position regarding starting pitcher than they were a few weeks ago. Even if those two clubs are no longer part of Snell’s market, however, Nightengale suggests that there are “several” teams that remain engaged with Snell’s camp in hopes his hefty price tag will drop as the offseason continues. In particular, he notes that the Blue Jays “have been quietly monitoring” Snell throughout his free agency.

Toronto would be something of a surprising fit for Snell. While the club was among the finalists involved in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, the club has seemed to eschew a more general foray into the pitching side of free agency this winter in favor of bolstering a lineup that lost Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, and Brandon Belt to free agency this winter after key bats such as George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. under-performed in 2023. By contrast, starting pitching proved to be a notable strength of the Blue Jays’ roster last season as the club was led by ace righty Kevin Gausman and saw strong rebound campaigns from both Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios after difficult seasons in 2022.

With that being said, the Blue Jays made clear they had money to spend this winter with their strong bid for the services of Shohei Ohtani last month and the club’s recent additions of Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa make a strong pursuit of Cody Bellinger or Chapman, the offseason’s best remaining positional free agents, less likely than they appeared to be earlier this winter. With money available and few clear fits in free agency to spend it on, a pursuit of Snell could place Toronto’s rotation firmly among the best in the game. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner, Snell led the majors with a sterling 2.25 ERA in 180 innings of work last season and would create an enviable duo at the top of the club’s rotation alongside Gausman.

A pursuit of Snell would also provide the Jays with protection against potential injury or ineffectiveness that they lack after veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu departed for free agency back in November. While the club’s rotation looks strong on paper, a regression from Kikuchi or Berrios or continued struggles from Alek Manoah after an abysmal 2023 campaign could hamper the club’s ability to emerge from a competitive AL East with a playoff spot next season. Even Chris Bassitt, despite serving as one of the most reliable mid-rotation starters in the game in recent years, threw a career-high 200 frames last year across 33 starts and is entering his age-35 season in 2024. While top prospect Rickey Tiedemann could factor into the club’s rotation mix sometime next season and provide the depth the club’s starting five currently lacks, the addition of another quality rotation piece such as Snell would take pressure off of a 21-year-old hurler with just four innings of work at the Triple-A level headed into what could be his rookie campaign.

Of course, adding a bat-first player to the club’s beleaguered offense is surely a higher priority than a pursuit of any pitcher, and the club may prefer to keep its financial powder dry with an eye on a robust free agent class next offseason that currently projects to include offensive stars such as Juan Soto, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. Nightengale seemingly indicates that the Blue Jays don’t have interest in adding Snell at his current, hefty asking price, and even if the price on his services does drop its likely a rotation-needy club such as the Red Sox or Angels would have more incentive to win a bidding war than Toronto. If the Blue Jays are hoping to add depth to their rotation without breaking the bank, pursuing a hurler capable of swinging between the rotation and the bullpen such as Alex Wood, Jakob Junis, or previously-rumored target Yariel Rodriguez could provide the club with additional depth while leaving the door open to a pursuit of Bellinger, Chapman, or any of next winter’s star free agents.

Blue Jays Interested In Jorge Soler

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The Blue Jays have shown interest in free agent slugger Jorge Soler, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports.  Toronto joins the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Nationals, and Marlins as clubs linked to Soler’s market at various points this winter.

It isn’t any surprise that the Jays have joined the fray, as Toronto has reportedly been looking into numerous free agent and trade options on the position-player side.  With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto now off the board, the Blue Jays’ adds have been limited to more defense-oriented pickups like Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, rather than any clear upgrades to what was a middling lineup in 2023.  Speaking with the media earlier this week, GM Ross Atkins said the Blue Jays might add perhaps just one more bat, “most likely be in the outfield or DH category.”

Soler fits that description, moreso as a designated hitter than as a viable regular in the outfield.  Soler has made only 89 appearances in the outfield for the Marlins over the last two seasons, operating as a part-time left fielder in 2022 and then a part-time right fielder in 2023.  Public defensive metrics have never liked Soler’s work in right field but he has been slightly closer to passable over his more limited experience of 875 career innings as a left fielder.

Since Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho are both left-handed hitters, a scenario exists where the right-handed hitting Soler could see some action in left field when a southpaw is on the mound, with one of Kiermaier/Varsho moving to the bench and the other playing in the center field.  As much as the Jays have prioritized defense over the last year, if Soler could match his 2022 left field numbers (-1 Defensive Runs Saved, -2 Outs Above Average, -2.5 UZR/150) with his strong offensive numbers from 2023, that’s probably a tradeoff the Blue Jays would be happy to accept, especially since Soler would still be spending more of his time as a DH.

Soler hit .250/.341/.512 with 36 home runs over 580 plate appearances for Miami last season, translating to a 126 wRC+.  It was a good enough year for Soler to exercise the opt-out clause in his deal, as he chose free agency and the promise of a larger contract over the one year and $13MM remaining on his Marlins contract.  Soler originally signed a three-year, $36MM pact with the Fish in the 2021-22 offseason but stumbled to a 95 wRC+ during an injury-marred 2022 campaign.

Though better health was a logical reason for Soler’s bounceback year, it also continued the pattern of inconsistency that has marked Soler’s 10 Major League seasons.  Breaking into the majors as a heavily-hyped prospect in the Cubs system, Soler has a 119 wRC+ over his career, bolstered by particularly strong offensive showings in 2018, 2019 (when he led the AL with 48 homers), and last season.  However, between his defensive showcomings and several other seasons when he has provided closer to league-average offense, Soler has only 7.4 fWAR to show for his 870 career games in the Show.

Perhaps the 2021 season is the best summation of Soler’s roller-coaster nature and high ceiling, as he struggled with the Royals before being traded to the Braves at the 2021 deadline.  The switch was suddenly flipped, as Soler went on a tear after joining the Braves and earned World Series MVP honors as Atlanta captured the championship.  Soler isn’t exactly a sure thing at the plate as he enters his age-32 season, and MLB Trade Rumors’ projection of a three-year, $45MM deal (Soler ranked 16th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents) reflected this uncertainty about his offense, and his lack of defensive utility.

Still, at this relatively modest price tag, Soler might be something of a bargain if he keeps hitting as he did in 2023, and the move out of spacious loanDepot Park might also help Soler’s efforts.  As per Statcast’s Park Factor metrics, however, Toronto’s Rogers Centre was only slightly more hitter-friendly than loanDepot Park in 2023, which could deflect any combination of the Blue Jays’ lack of hitting, their strong pitching and defense, or some effects of the new outfield dimensions created by the Jays’ renovations to their ballpark.

MLBTR Podcast: Yamamoto Fallout, the Sale/Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Ross Atkins Discusses Current State Of Blue Jays’ Roster

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Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins spoke to the media today as the club introduced recent signees Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Those comments were relayed by reporters including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportnet (X links), Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link) and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (X links).

“We feel really good about the team that we have,” Atkins said, while acknowledging that further moves could still be forthcoming. “I don’t think we’ll add three players. I think, most likely, that it’s closer to one.” The forthcoming addition would “most likely be in the outfield or DH category, but we’re not limited to that.” When asked if their third baseman was already on the roster, he said that “We feel really good about the team that we have. Between [Santiago] Espinal, [Cavan] Biggio and Kiner-Falefa, we have opportunities to deploy different lineups and different players playing third base potentially.” Further moves could change the role for Kiner-Falefa but “There could be a pathway for him to get a lot of third base at-bats the way we’re currently constructed.”

All of this would seem to suggest that their likelihood of re-signing Matt Chapman is currently low, though some caveats apply. While Atkins suggested they are more focused on an outfield/DH addition, he did at least leave the door open by saying they are “not limited to that.” It’s also possible that this is a negotiating tactic, downplaying their interest in order to improve their leverage in contract talks.

If it does come to pass that Kiner-Falefa replaces Chapman in getting the bulk of the playing time at the hot corner, that would count as a notable downgrade for the club. Both are excellent defenders but IKF has a career batting line of just .261/.314/.346, which translates to a wRC+ of 81. Chapman, meanwhile, has hit .240/.329/.461 in his career for a wRC+ of 118. Kiner-Falefa could make up for that gap somewhat with his speed, having stolen 56 bases over the past three years, but Chapman is obviously the superior player overall. Kiner-Falefa has a career tally of 3.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, a figure that Chapman has topped in a single season on four occasions.

It seems the club is focused on run prevention, as both Kiner-Falefa and Kiermaier are defensive specialists, while hoping for greater offense from their incumbent players. “We feel like last year was just a blip in terms of run-scoring,” Atkins said today, per Matheson. Lineup regulars like George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk all had relative down years at the plate in 2023 and it seems like the club is expecting that group bouncing back to make up for the loss of Chapman’s bat.

If this is an honest assessment of the club’s current makeup and not mere posturing, it’s a bold gambit for the club to take. The offense was a bit underwhelming in 2023 and the lineup has since lost Chapman, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield. The club seemed focused on upgrading the lineup all winter, having been connected to big bats like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger and others. While Ohtani and Soto are off the board, Bellinger is still available, as are some other known targets. The club has been connected to DH-type players like Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley, Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto and Justin Turner. It seems at least one addition is still forthcoming but the Jays could be placing a lot of faith in a return to form from the aforementioned quartet.

It’s also possible that some internal improvements could come from elsewhere. Davis Schneider had a red hot debut in 2023 but cooled later in the year. He still finished with a batting line of .276/.404/.603 in his first 141 major league plate appearances, translating to a wRC+ of 176. He surely won’t be able to maintain that, but even some regression could perhaps see him bolster the lineup over a full season.

The club also got encouraging minor league performances, to varying degrees, from players like Spencer Horwitz, Damiano Palmegiani, Orelvis Martinez, Ernie Clement, Leo Jimenez, Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes. All of those players have either made their major league debut already or have reached Triple-A, making them plausible contributors to the 2024 club. A strong step forward from one or two guys in that group could quickly cut into IKF’s playing time. “I know the off-season isn’t done,” Kiner-Falefa said today, per Davidi. “I know are still going to be moves. I’m just ready to play everywhere.”

The club is clearly not done and it’s perhaps best to reserve judgement until later in the offseason, but it currently looks a bit odd. The Jays clearly set their sights high and it seemed as recently as a few weeks ago that they were committed to making a big splash to upgrade the lineup but now appear to have made a significant shift in how they are approaching their 2024 roster construction.

On another note, Atkins relayed that the Jays have added Matt Hague to their big league coaching staff as assistant hitting coach, per Nicholson-Smith. Hague played in 43 big league games between the Pirates and Blue Jays. He last appeared in the majors in 2015 but continued toiling away in the minors through 2018. For the past four years, he has been serving as a hitting coach in the minor leagues of the Jays’ system but will now get a chance to join a major league staff.

Blue Jays Looking To Add Bat-First Players, Have “Strong Interest” In Joc Pederson

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After missing out on both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto despite finishing as finalists for both stars, the Blue Jays have recently pivoted to smaller moves than the blockbusters they were contemplating earlier in the offseason. They’ve re-signed center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and added utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to their infield mix over the past week and a recent report regarded the club as the leaders for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. According to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the club has also continued to be active in the positional market since signing Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa, showing strong interest in free agent slugger Joc Pederson.

Pederson, who MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern profiled just this morning, is coming off something of a down season with the Giants in 2023. The 31-year-old got off to a scorching hot start this past season with a .281/.394/.518 (150 wRC+) slash line through June 17, though that stretch accounted for just 137 plate appearances as the slugger battled wrist and hand injuries early in the season. While Pederson managed to avoid the injured list throughout the remainder of the season, his performance declined significantly throughout the remainder of the campaign. In 288 trips to the plate from June 18 onward, Pederson hit a meager .213/.326/.369 (92 wRC+), a performance that dragged his overall season line down to .235/.348/.416 (111 wRC+). While Pederson’s 20.8% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate were more or less in line with his earlier production, Pederson’s BABIP shrunk from .317 to just .247 while his power production suffered a simultaneously dip.

After crushing seven home runs in just 36 games early in the season, Pederson’s final 85 appearances saw him hit just eight round-trippers. Interestingly, the disparity in production came with similar peripheral numbers; Pederson had the same groundball percentage of 39.5% both before and after the aforementioned June 17 cutoff, and his soft contact rate actually went down from 12.8% to 10.8% the rest of the way. Given the minimal change in Pederson’s peripherals regarding batted balls and plate discipline, it’s seemingly fair to expect improved performance in 2024, particularly if he moves to a more homer-friendly park outside of San Francisco. That conclusion is further supported by Pederson’s excellent .368 xwOBA, which outstrips his wOBA by 37 points and is a mirror image of the .367 xwOBA he posted during his dominant 2022 campaign.

If Pederson can even come close to replicating his 2022 season, where he slashed an excellent .271/.353/.521 (146 wRC+) en route to his second career All Star campaign, he’d be an excellent fit for a Blue Jays roster short on left-handed bats following the departure of Brandon Belt, who posted a 138 wRC+ in 103 games this year as the club’s primary DH. Though Pederson primarily played DH in 2023 due to an outfield logjam in San Francisco, the slugger could also help to take some pressure off of Daulton Varsho in left field after a difficult 2023 season. The addition of Pederson would go along way to improving a Toronto offense that underperformed somewhat in 2023 and has since lost both Belt and Matt Chapman to free agency.

Of course, it’s important to note that Nicholson-Smith suggests that things are far from a done deal between the two sides, with the Diamondbacks, Angels, Giants, and Cubs all standing as other potential suitors (though the Cubs, Nicholson-Smith notes, may only have interest should they fail to re-sign Cody Bellinger). Likewise, the Blue Jays are interested in plenty of potential bat-first options beyond Pederson, with Nicholson-Smith name-checking each of Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto, and Justin Turner. Nicholson-Smith goes on to suggest that a deal with Pederson wouldn’t preclude the Jays from adding a second player from that mold, though it’s worth noting that with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base only Justin Turner has recent experience elsewhere on the diamond, meaning Pederson would likely need to play the outfield on a regular basis in that scenario.

Blue Jays Interested In Gio Urshela

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The Blue Jays had interest in signing Gio Urshela this offseason, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports.  It isn’t known if Urshela is still on the Jays’ radar, as Nicholson-Smith notes that Toronto’s recent deal with Isiah Kiner-Falefa might’ve already addressed the club’s apparent need in the utility infield market.

There hasn’t been much buzz about Urshela this winter, which isn’t surprising given the injury-shortened nature of the infielder’s season.  Urshela didn’t play after suffering a pelvic fracture in June, ending his 2023 campaign after 62 games with the Angels.  Based on the initial timeline given for Urshela’s recovery, he should be ready by the start of Spring Training, though there wasn’t enough time remaining for him to both rehab his injury and ramp up prior to the end of the Angels’ regular-season schedule.

Urshela hit .299/.329/.374 over 228 PA with Los Angeles while bouncing around the diamond at all four infield positions.  Most of Urshela’s action came at third base in place of the injured Anthony Rendon, and the vast majority of Urshela’s playing time in his eight MLB seasons has been as a third baseman.  The Outs Above Average metric hasn’t been a fan of Urshela’s third base glovework while the Defensive Runs Saved (+10) and UZR/150 (+3.9) metrics have given positive grades to 4620 1/3 big league innings at the hot corner.

Urshela has also shown some quality at the plate, particularly when he hit .310/.359/.523 over 650 PA for the Yankees during the 2019-20 seasons.  This rather unexpected breakout earned Urshela a regular spot in New York’s infield mix, though a somewhat injury-marred down year made him expendable, and the Yankees dealt Urshela to the Twins as part of their big five-player swap in March 2022.

While Urshela didn’t quite reach his offensive heights from his time with the Yankees, he still had a solid bounce-back year, hitting .285/.338/.429 in 551 PA in Minnesota.  Despite these good numbers, the Twins dealt Urshela to L.A. last offseason, in part due to Minnesota’s crowded infield picture and in part due to Urshela’s escalating arbitration salary (a projected $9.2MM, which ended up being $8.4MM after he lost his arb hearing in search of a $10MM salary).

If healthy, the 32-year-old Urshela could be at least a decent signing for a team in need of infield help, with some higher-ceiling potential if Urshela can even replicate his 2022 numbers, let alone his two big Yankees years.  It makes sense that the Blue Jays would’ve had him on their target list given their infield needs this winter, plus Toronto is quite familiar with Urshela due to his past time in their organization — he briefly played for the Jays in 2018, appearing in 19 games at the Major League level.

The Blue Jays’ plans at third base may hinge on whether or not the team can re-sign Matt Chapman, but if Chapman departs, it isn’t out of the question that the Jays could still pursue Urshela even with Kiner-Falefa already in the fold.  IKF’s lack of offensive pop makes him an imperfect answer as a starting third baseman, so if Kiner-Falefa is viewed more as a utility piece, Urshela’s higher-caliber bat and still-solid glove could make him a better option for a regular third base role.

Blue Jays Have Reportedly “Taken The Lead” In Yariel Rodriguez Sweepstakes

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After missing out on top free agents Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto earlier this month, the Blue Jays have ramped up activity at the lower levels of the market of late by re-signing center fielder Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year pact and landing utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year deal in recent days. It appears the club isn’t stopping there, as Enrique Rojas of ESPN reported Friday afternoon that the club has “taken the lead” in the sweepstakes for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, who Rojas adds is “close” to making a decision in free agency. It’s hardly a surprise that the Blue Jays have interest in Rodriguez, as a recent report indicated that Toronto was among several teams with interest in the righty.

Rodriguez, 27 in March, is among the most intriguing free agents available on the market this offseason. The right-hander was granted free agency by MLB back in early November after being released from his deal with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons back in October. Rodriguez’s professional career began in Cuba during the 2015-16 season, and he spent six seasons pitching primarily as a starter to solid results in his home country before joining the Dragons ahead of the 2020 campaign. Upon arriving in Japan, Rodriguez was moved to the bullpen and broke out in a big way during the 2022 campaign, where he posted a dominant 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate.

Rodriguez participated in the World Baseball Classic in early 2023 as a member of Team Cuba and began to stretch back out as a starter in that series, throwing 7 1/3 innings across two appearances. After the event, Rodriguez declined to report back to the Dragons and sat out the 2023 season before securing his release after the season. Since then, Rodriguez has hosted workouts for a host of MLB clubs in the Dominican Republic, allowing scouts an opportunity to see the right-hander up close.

Whether Rodriguez will be able to stick in the majors as a starter or not has been a point of division among clubs throughout his free agency, though the Blue Jays reportedly fall into the camp that views him as a starting pitcher alongside teams such as the Pirates and Red Sox. While Rodriguez has also received recent interest from the Reds, Padres, and Yankees, each reportedly prefers the right-hander as a reliever. Due in part to that division on whether his future is in the rotation or the bullpen, Rodriguez’s position as the #28 free agent on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a deal worth $32MM over four years, is less concrete than other free agents of a similar caliber.

In spite of the uncertainty involved in Rodriguez’s free agency, the Blue Jays are a solid fit for the right-hander’s services. While Toronto has a full rotation on paper with a stable quartet of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi, the uncertainty surrounding right-hander Alek Manoah creates a major question mark at the back of the club’s starting staff. Manoah was a finalist for the AL Cy Young award in 2022 with a dominant 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings of work, but his performance fell off a cliff in 2023 as he managed an ERA of just 5.87 in 19 starts for Toronto as he spent much of the summer in the minor leagues.

By adding Rodriguez to the club’s mix, the Blue Jays add additional starting depth to the club’s mix while also giving Manoah significant competition for the fifth starter role entering the season. If Rodriguez were to either struggle in the rotation or simply be pushed out by the re-emergence of Manoah or a strong debut from top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, he could then be utilized to bolster a bullpen that lost Jordan Hicks to free agency last month. Hicks’s departure leaves open a vacancy at the back of Toronto’s bullpen alongside closer Jordan Romano and set-up man Erik Swanson, where Rodriguez would be an excellent fit if he wound up outside of the club’s preferred rotation mix.

Blue Jays Sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa

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The Blue Jays have signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa, per a club announcement. It’s a two-year, $15MM deal, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (X link), with another $1MM available in incentives. Kiner-Falefa is represented by ALIGND.

Kiner-Falefa won a Gold Glove as the Rangers’ regular third baseman in 2020, but he hasn’t since played much time at the hot corner, since Texas used him primarily at shortstop in 2021 and the Yankees did the same in 2022.  This past season saw New York shift IKF all around the diamond since Anthony Volpe took over as the everyday shortstop, with Kiner-Falefa racking up a lot of playing time in center field (278 1/3 innings), left field (248 innings), back at third base (240 1/3 innings), right field (40 innings), shortstop (eight innings) and a lone inning as a second baseman.  The public defensive metrics were mixed on his outfield work, but Kiner-Falefa graded pretty well as an infielder, particularly in his return to third base.

With Matt Chapman a free agent, it would seem like the Blue Jays could install Kiner-Falefa as their regular third base option for the time being, giving the club at least a glove-first starter if either Chapman signs elsewhere or if a more clear-cut starter can’t be found.  That said, IKF is probably less of a Chapman replacement than he is a replacement for Whit Merrifield, another right-handed hitter who was deployed regularly as a second base and in the outfield.  Kiner-Falefa adds even more versatility since Merrifield played very little third base and no shortstop.

IKF is also a better defensive fit at third base than any of Toronto’s incumbent crop of infielders, such as Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal, or Ernie Clement.  Biggio is the only left-handed bat in that group, so it stands to reason the Jays might trade one of the righty-swingers now that Kiner-Falefa is on board.  Adding a more experienced Major Leaguer also gives the Blue Jays more flexibility in giving more minor league evaluation time to top prospects Orelvis Martinez or Addison Barger, who should both be in the Show at some point in 2024 and could factor into the infield picture (particularly at third base).

While Kiner-Falefa may work from a depth and glovework perspective, however, he doesn’t represent much or any help to the Blue Jays’ larger need for offense.  Kiner-Falefa hit .242/.306/.340 over 361 plate appearances with the Yankees last season, essentially matching his .261/.314/.346 slash line over 2415 career PA at the big league level.  This translates to an 81 wRC+ — tied for the fourth-lowest total of any player with more than 2000 PA since the start of the 2018 season.

The lack of offense has limited Kiner-Falefa to 3.8 fWAR over his six Major League seasons, despite his defensive contributions.  He rarely strikes out, yet this contact-hitting approach rarely yields hard contact, and he has little power to speak of with only 26 career home runs.

A two-year, $15MM contract seems like a pretty nice score for Kiner-Falefa with this lack of offense in mind, yet there was still quite a bit of interest in the utilityman on the open market.  The Brewers, Dodgers, Marlins, and Yankees were all linked to Kiner-Falefa on the rumor mill, and Toronto’s own interest in IKF was first cited by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi earlier this month.

Between Kiner-Falefa today and yesterday’s agreement with Kevin Kiermaier, the Blue Jays have sprung into action after a rather quiet offseason caused by the team’s focus on chasing Shohei Ohtani.  The Jays remained at least speculatively linked to a number of other players besides Ohtani, of course, as GM Ross Atkins’ front office routinely checks in on basically every available free agent or trade target as a matter of due diligence.  While Kiner-Falefa and Kiermaier should help preserve the Jays’ excellent defense from 2023, some offensive pop seems necessary, whether at DH or to further bolster the infield or outfield picture.

As per Roster Resource, the Jays’ 2024 payroll projects to be just shy of the $230MM mark with Kiner-Falefa now on the books.  This leaves a bit of space remaining before Toronto hits the $237MM luxury tax threshold, though that isn’t really a barrier considering that the Blue Jays exceeded the tax line (for the first time in franchise history) last season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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