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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds will look for an outfielder who can bat leadoff this coming offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Ryan Madson, RP: $11MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout
  • Ryan Ludwick, OF: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout

Free Agents

The Reds addressed some of their most pressing long-term needs this past spring, when they signed Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips to contract extensions worth a total approaching $300MM. After 97 regular season wins and an NL Central title, Walt Jocketty's roster still seems strong. The GM will likely pursue an outfielder who can bat leadoff and add relief depth in the offseason ahead.

Mat Latos - Reds (PW)

Jocketty already took care of one major move, re-signing manager Dusty Baker to a two-year extension. The veteran skipper returns with the expectation that he'll have a similarly competitive roster in 2013.

The team's most pressing need exists in the outfield, as Ryan Ludwick will decline his side of the mutual option on his contract. The Reds could re-sign Ludwick — they do have interest — or pursue a leadoff hitter. Jocketty has indicated adding a leadoff man will be a priority (and no, it doesn't sounds as though the Reds expect speedy shortstop-turned-outfield prospect Billy Hamilton to be ready by Opening Day 2013).

The free agent market includes potential leadoff hitters such as Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan and Shane Victorino. While these players will enter the offseason as top free agents seeking multiyear commitments, others, like Juan Pierre, will be more affordable. Mark Sheldon has suggested Coco Crisp could be a trade target for Cincinnati following Oakland's acquisition of Chris Young. A short-term option such as Pierre or Crisp might make most sense for the Reds if they believe Hamilton will be an impact leadoff hitter within a year or so.

It should also be noted that the Reds could acquire a center fielder and re-sign Ludwick. Drew Stubbs continues to struggle against right-handed pitching, so limiting his exposure to righties would be a positive, at least from an offensive standpoint. And while we're discussing outfielders let's make it clear that the chances of Josh Hamilton signing with Cincinnati are quite slim. As John Fay recently explained, the team wouldn't have room on its payroll.

The infield seems set for 2013, with Todd Frazier expected to start at third base in place of Scott Rolen. Rolen, a 37-year-old free agent, has said he's not sure whether he'll retire or continue playing. If he's open to returning as a part-time player, he could be a fit on Cincinnati's bench. The Reds will also need a backup middle infielder, assuming they non-tender Wilson Valdez. A Ronny Cedeno-type player could provide the Reds with the insurance they need up the middle while prospect Didi Gregorius develops.

Five pitchers started 161 of the Reds' 162 games in 2012 and, not coincidentally, no National League team allowed fewer runs in 2012. Though it'd be unreasonable to expect similar effectiveness and health again in 2013, Jocketty won't have an easy time convincing free agent starters to sign in Cincinnati. As of now there doesn't seem to be much opportunity on this starting staff. So how does a general manager maintain depth when he doesn’t have jobs to offer up? As the Brewers demonstrated in 2012, teams can avoid the problem by having a system that includes pitchers who could step into the MLB rotation. Left-hander Tony Cingrani might be able to fill this role for the Reds in 2013. While Aroldis Chapman would also be an intriguing rotation option, it's probably not a transition the Reds would want to make midseason. It'd also be prudent to seek starting depth in minor league deals or trades when possible.

The Reds' arbitration class includes a number of non-tender candidates in Valdez, Bill Bray and Logan Ondrusek. They've also got a pair of extension candidates in Mat Latos (pictured) and Homer Bailey. The Reds have signed ten players to extensions since the beginning of the 2010 calendar year, more than any team except the Rockies (the Reds are tied with Blue Jays and Giants at ten). Given Jocketty's recent history, it won’t be surprising if Latos or Bailey gets a multiyear deal.

The contract of reliever Ryan Madson includes a mutual option for 2013 that won't be exercised. The right-hander didn't throw a pitch for Cincinnati, missing the entire 2012 season to undergo Tommy John surgery. Though the Reds will decline their side of the mutual option, Madson could be a fit on a one-year, incentive-based deal. It's unclear if the Reds will discuss re-signing Jonathan Broxton, who pitched well in 25 appearances after Jocketty acquired him in a midseason trade. Retaining one of these relievers or signing another comparable pitcher would make sense, especially if Jocketty's entertaining the idea of using Chapman as a starter. Alternatively, they could wait for bargains or add bullpen depth on minor league deals. 

The Reds resemble the Cardinals in that their list of offseason needs appears to be relatively short. Jocketty will pursue outfield help, acquire some backup infielders and bolster his pitching staff this offseason. If he completes those goals within the next few months, the Reds will head to Spring Training with a team capable of repeating as division winners. 

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Royals Claim Chris Volstad

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The Royals claimed Chris Volstad off of waivers from the Cubs, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat reports (on Twitter).

Volstad, 26, had been a non-tender candidate in Chicago following a season in which he posted a 6.31 ERA in 111 1/3 innings. The 6'8" right-hander provides Kansas City with some rotation depth. In the four seasons leading up to 2012, he posted a 4.59 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 as a member of the Marlins' rotation.

Volstad earned $2.7MM in 2012 as a first time eligible player and his salary can't be reduced by more than 20% if he's tendered a contract through the arbitration process. In fact MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a slight raise to $3MM for Volstad.

Arbitration Eligibles: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Bastardo's high strikeout/walk/flyball rate formula was less effective for him on the surface this year, given the significant increase in his ERA.  43 holds over the past two seasons should still enable him to exceed $1MM as a first-timer.  Frandsen had a nice campaign in 210 plate appearances, and has probably earned a spot on next year's team.

Schierholtz, 28, came to the Phillies in their trade deadline Hunter Pence deal but totaled only 73 plate appearances for his new club.  He missed time with a broken toe, and is a non-tender candidate.

Assuming Bastardo and Frandsen are tendered contracts, the Phillies are looking at an estimated $1.9MM for two arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Diamondbacks Claim Gustavo Nunez

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The Diamondbacks announced that they claimed shortstop Gustavo Nunez off of waivers from the Pirates (Twitter link). The 24-year-old recently completed his sixth professional season.

Nunez appeared in just 14 games this past year, playing with three of the Pirates' affiliates. In six years playing in the Pittsburgh and Detroit organizations the Dominican infielder has a .266/.321/.349 batting line.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates will look to add offense and acquire pitching depth in the hopes of ending their streak of 20 consecutive losing seasons.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

Free Agents

There’s no easy fix for the Pirates, who enter the offseason with many needs and limited resources. Yet there’s some hope, even after consecutive late-season collapses, that 2013 will be the year the Pirates end their streak of 20 straight losing seasons. For the streak to end, GM Neal Huntington will have to pursue upgrades on the pitching staff and at multiple positions around the diamond.

Joel Hanrahan - Pirates (PW)

Pirates president Frank Coonelly has publicly expressed support for his team's front office executives. But the question persists: how long can upper management support the unconventional, military style player development methods which led to at least one injured prospect? Rival executives have said they consider these methods unacceptable and excessively risky.

The Pirates, who spent $52MM on payroll in 2012, have committed $28MM to next year's team with another $22MM or so projected to go to arbitration eligible players. Unless they unexpectedly increase payroll they aren't going to be signing elite free agents this coming winter.

The Pirates have lots of questions in their starting rotation in the short and long-term. A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez are in place atop the rotation for 2013, and James McDonald will be a welcome addition if he can replicate the form he showed in the first half of this past season. Beyond that there’s Charlie Morton, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, non-tender candidate Jeff Karstens, and a number of rookies. The Pirates have some intriguing young rotation candidates such as former first overall selection Gerrit Cole, but that’s not necessarily enough to keep them in games for the duration of a six-month season.

Kevin Correia's not expected to re-sign in Pittsburgh after losing his rotation spot late in the regular season. The Pirates could explore free agency for potential bargains such as Ervin Santana, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, Francisco Liriano, Chris Young and Kevin Millwood. Perhaps they can follow the template that landed them Burnett and Rodriguez and acquire Chris Capuano or Aaron Harang from the Dodgers with Los Angeles taking on some salary. Huntington has had success with this type of deal in the past and might look to replicate it this winter, with his club still in need of pitching.

The Pirates could obtain some starting pitching by trading their closer, Joel Hanrahan (pictured). The right-hander’s salary projects to jump to the $7MM range, so it’s time for Huntington to complete a trade. It doesn’t make sense for the Pirates to allocate 15% of their budget to a reliever who pitches 4% of their innings. The Dodgers, Angels and Tigers are among the large market teams that could be seeking shutdown relievers this winter. Perhaps Huntington can move Hanrahan to one of those clubs while getting useful, controllable pieces in return.

A trade would prompt the Pirates to pursue relief help, especially since free agent right-hander Jason Grilli has a case for a multiyear deal, and could be priced out of Pittsburgh. Huntington has had past success finding effective relievers without overpaying for them. Grilli and Chris Resop, for example, were acquired for next to nothing. Replicating this success won’t be easy, but it’s one way for the Pirates to avoid spending $5MM per season on relievers. Whether it’s a Rule 5 selection, a late-winter bargain or a waiver claim, the Pirates must seek affordable bullpen help.

The Pirates also have significant needs on offense after ranking 24th in runs scored among MLB's 30 teams. They’re expected to seek a starting catcher at a time that a number of starting backstops are eligible for free agency. Mike Napoli's power would be a welcome addition to the Pirates' offense, so it makes sense to check in and see if a deal could work for both sides. However, top options such as Napoli and Russell Martin might not be affordable for the Pirates.

If that's the case they could simply seek a part-time backup for Michael McKenry, the 27-year-old who posted a .233/.320/.442 batting line in 275 plate appearances this past season. There’s “zero chance” the Pirates will exercise Rod Barajas’ option at $3.5MM according to Rob Biertempfel. Yet Barajas has said he'd be interested in re-signing at a lower figure, so that's a possibility (by the way, the team's other option, a $700K club option for Pedro Alvarez, will definitely be exercised).

Catcher was just one of the positions at which the Pirates struggled offensively in 2012. The team’s first basemen (24th in OPS, .693), shortstops (26th in OPS, .604) and left fielders (28th in OPS, .635) were among the least productive in MLB at their respective positions. 

Garrett Jones figures to start at first base again after hitting 27 home runs and posting a .274/.317/.516 batting line in 2012. Jones struggles against left-handers, which means Gaby Sanchez, a noted lefty masher, could add value in a complementary role. For all of his offensive struggles, Clint Barmes remains a highly-regarded defender. The Pirates should explore trades for shortstops in case there’s a deal to be had, but the trade value of shortstops who add value on offense and defense figures to be extremely high, especially when there’s not a strong class of free agents.

The Pirates have an assortment of corner outfield options in Travis Snider, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata and Starling Marte. Unfortunately Tabata's coming off of a disappointing year, Snider and Presley have had trouble against lefties and Marte remains an unknown commodity at the MLB level. Adding a prominent outfielder via trade or free agency seems unlikely given the Pirates' needs and resources. Hopefully for manager Clint Hurdle two of these players emerge as capable regulars in 2013. The group includes some players who began their professional careers as highly ranked prospects, so the potential for breakout seasons seems to be there. 

As I suggested earlier, the Pirates have a relatively large arbitration class that includes some non-tender candidates. Karstens could be cut loose with a projected salary approaching $4MM. There also appears to be a chance that Morton and Sanchez will be non-tendered. The group includes at least one extension candidate in first time eligible second baseman Neil Walker. The Pirates would do well to lock Walker up if they can limit costs for his four arbitration years and obtain control of at least one free agent season.

Huntington has at least one more chance to end the Pirates streak of losing seasons. If the first four months of this past season are any indication, the Pirates might be able to do even better than .500 in 2013. First things first, though. The Pirates must use their limited resources to find pitching and improve their below average offense.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Farrell, Hamilton, Lohse

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On this date in 1998, Mike Piazza signed what was then the most lucrative contract in baseball history. The backstop inked a seven-year, $91MM contract to remain with the Mets just a few weeks before he was scheduled to become a free agent. Had he hit the open market, Piazza could have very well become the first $100MM player in baseball history. Here is the latest from around the baseball blogosphere…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here. Only one email per week, please.

Sherman On Rivera, Granderson, Swisher

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The Yankees are averaging 96 regular season wins in their first five years under manager Joe Girardi. Here's the latest from the Bronx, via Joel Sherman of the New York Post…

  • The Yankees would be far better off with Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and Derek Jeter contributing in 2013, Sherman writes. Rivera appears to be undecided about whether to continue playing, Pettitte hasn't announced his plans for the '13 season and Jeter’s recovering from ankle surgery. Sherman hears from a friend of Rivera's who expects the closer to return.
  • The Yankees realize Curtis Granderson adds value and will almost certainly avoid trading him in a reactionary move, Sherman writes. “I will listen on anybody, but you would be hard-pressed to get enough to trade a center fielder who is a perennial 40-homer-plus man,” GM Brian Cashman said of Granderson, whose 2013 option will be exercised in the coming weeks. Rival executives told Sherman that Granderson could draw trade interest from teams aiming to contend in 2013 if the Yankees made him available. 
  • Sherman also notes that Nick Swisher is almost certain to leave in free agent.

Free Agent Faceoff: Saunders vs. Blanton

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MLBTradeRumors is introducing a new series in which two comparable free agents are analyzed side by side. Each post will conclude with a reader vote on the value of the two players.

Joe Saunders and Joe Blanton have a lot in common. They have both evolved into steady if unspectacular starters since being selected in the first round of the 2002 draft. Both of the 6’3” 31-year-olds were traded in waiver deals this past August. They even share a first name. Let’s move past the similarities and determine which free agent should appeal to teams more in the coming offseason, when both Saunders and Blanton will be eligible for free agency.

Saunders has averaged 175 innings over the course of the past five seasons and, unlike Blanton, hasn't missed significant time due to injuries in recent years. He’s six months younger than Blanton and he’s left-handed. Saunders also has the edge in career ERA (4.15 vs. 4.37). While Saunders has consistently kept his ERA below 4.50, Blanton hasn't posted an ERA below 4.50 since 2009. Let's not forget Saunders' two strong postseason starts against the elite offenses of the Rangers and Yankees this month.

Though Blanton missed much of the 2011 season, he pitched 191 innings this past season, and has completed at least 175 innings in seven of eight full years as an MLB player. He’s been every bit as durable as Saunders. Furthermore, he strikes out more hitters and does a better job at limiting walks. Blanton also throws harder than Saunders (90.4 mph) and generates more swings and misses (9.6% swinging strike rate). The right-hander’s ERA has been a little high in recent years, but once we look a little deeper, we’ll see he has produced more wins above replacement in his career, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference (Blanton has been worth 20.4 WAR to Saunders' 12.0, per FanGraphs). And though he didn’t pitch in the 2012 playoffs, Blanton has 40 solid postseason innings to his name.

Both pitchers have a case for a multiyear deal this offseason, when many teams will be looking for rotation help. Which begs the question…

White Sox Promote Williams; Hahn To Be GM

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9:07am: The White Sox announced the promotions, naming Williams executive VP and naming Hahn senior VP and general manager. Williams will "maintain oversight and final approval on major baseball decisions,” White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf said.

8:14am: The White Sox will announce today that they've promoted their top two baseball executives, according to Mark Gonzales of Chicago Tribune. Kenny Williams will now oversee the baseball operations department and Rick Hahn will take over Williams' duties as general manager. The long-anticipated transition will be announced at a news conference today.

Williams, 48, has been Chicago's GM since the end of the 2000 season. He is the sixth longest tenured general manager in baseball, behind only Terry Ryan (Twins) Brian Sabean (Giants), Billy Beane (Athletics), Brian Cashman (Yankees) and Dan O'Dowd (Rockies).The White Sox have reached the playoffs twice under Williams; they won the 2005 World Series and won the AL Central in 2008. Chicago finished the 2012 season in second place with an 85-77 record.

Hahn featured prominently on MLBTR's list of GM candidates last summer. He was considered for general manager jobs last offseason, including one with the Cubs. The 41-year-old has also been linked to general manager jobs with the Pirates, Cardinals, Mariners, Mets and Angels, according to Gonzales.

Angels Unlikely To Re-Sign Torii Hunter

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FRIDAY: GM Jerry Dipoto says the Angels remain interested in re-signing Hunter, Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register reports. "Finding a way to fit Torii in is a challenge, but we have been open that we want him back,” Dipoto said. “We haven’t closed the door on Torii and he hasn’t closed the door on us.”

THURSDAY: The Angels are highly unlikely to re-sign right fielder Torii Hunter, MLBTR has learned from a source close to the situation.  The Angels are prioritizing pitching this offseason, and Hunter will have a chance to explore the open market.

Hunter, 37, signed a five-year, $90MM deal with the Angels after the '07 season.  He hit .313/.365/.451 with 16 home runs in 584 plate appearances this year, so he's still an asset from the right side of the plate.  His right field defense grades out as above-average.  MVP candidate Mike Trout is assured of a starting spot next year for the Halos, while Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos, and Mark Trumbo project to take the rest of the at-bats.

A week ago, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that the Angels offered Hunter "only a one-year contract at a heavy pay cut from his $18 million salary," and that Hunter is aiming for at least a two-year deal.  At this stage in his career I imagine Hunter is focused on playing for a contender, with teams such as the Phillies and Rangers looking like viable options.

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