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Draft Notes: Gray, Manaea, Ball, Twins

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Oklahoma pitcher Jonathan Gray's strong performance in the Big 12 conference tournament increased the likelihood that the Astros will pick him No. 1 overall, ESPN.com's Christopher Crawford writes (Insider-only). Crawford also quotes a scout who says that Indiana State's Sean Manaea — thought to be a top pick before the season — is "not a first-round prospect to me," and suggests Manaea may be best served by not signing and returning to school. Manaea was pulled from a recent start with shoulder tightness. Crawford's piece also contains details about Mark Appel and many of this draft class' top hitters. Here are more notes on the draft.

  • Indiana high-schooler Trey Ball tops the list of two-way players available in this year's draft, Baseball America's Jim Callis says. Teams now prefer Ball as a pitcher, and it looks likely he'll be selected in the first 10 picks or so. Another two-way player is Cal State-Fullerton's Michael Lorenzen, who will be drafted as a center fielder, Callis says.
  • If the Twins wish to avoid Scott Boras with the No. 4 overall pick in the upcoming draft, their best bets are high school pitcher Kohl Stewart or high school catcher Reese McGuire, ESPN1500's Darren Wolfson tweets. Stewart is being advised by Derek Braunecker and McGuire by Matt Sosnick, Wolfson says.

How Valuable Are Competitive Balance Draft Picks?

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This year’s draft will be the first to feature competitive balance draft picks. These picks, which go to small-market and low-revenue teams, were awarded in a lottery last year. Some will take place after the first round, others after the second round. Unlike with regular draft picks, it’s possible for teams to trade competitive balance picks, which means that each team surely has decided how much these picks are worth.USATSI_7210839

This is the full draft order. The competitive balance picks are as follows:

34. Royals
35. Marlins (from Pirates)
36. Diamondbacks
37. Orioles
38. Reds
39. Tigers (from Marlins)

69. Padres
70. Rockies
71. A’s
72. Brewers
73. Marlins (from Tigers)

A 2009 study by Baseball Analysts’ Sky Andrecheck suggested that the average value of the No. 30 overall pick was 3.6 WAR — basically, the equivalent of about two decent seasons for a role player. The value of the competititve balance picks from No. 34 to No. 39, then, would be slightly less. Placing a numerical value on these draft picks in the current draft environment is tricky, however, because so much about the draft has changed in the past two years. Unlike in years past, teams are reined in by bonus pool allotments, so they aren’t picking players for the same reasons they used to.

Teams can trade competitive balance picks, and two trades have already occurred, both of them involving the Marlins. The Pirates traded (what turned out to be) their No. 35 pick to Miami, along with outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, for first baseman Gaby Sanchez and minor-league pitcher Kyle Kaminska. The Marlins also traded their own competitive balance pick to the Tigers in the Anibal Sanchez deal, receiving the Tigers’ pick in return.

The Gaby Sanchez deal is a lot simpler, so let’s work from there. Hernandez and Kaminska weren’t key parts of the trade, so the deal boils down to Gaby Sanchez for the No. 35 overall pick. Pirates GM Neal Huntington recently explained the rationale behind the deal in an interview with David Todd on 970 ESPN in Pittsburgh (beginning at around 12:30).

“You see a David Wright, and you recognize, man, there’s a comp pick and there’s the risk, is we may have given up David Wright,” Huntington says. (Obviously, Wright wasn’t a competitive balance pick, but he was the No. 38 overall pick in the draft in 2001.)

“But … you recognize there’s about a 15% chance of getting an everyday big-leaguer in the 30-to-40 pick range,” says Huntington. “We felt like it was worth that 15% chance that we were going to get an everyday big-leaguer.

“You’ve also got a smaller chance to get an impact guy like David Wright, but you’ve got about a 60% miss rate at those picks, and in our minds, it’s going to be even [higher] now that the draft is much more scripted than it’s ever been.”

A look at recent draft history reveals Huntington’s analysis to be essentially correct. Let’s look at the 30-40 pick range from the 2001 through 2005 drafts. (Although Huntington mentioned the “30-to-40 pick range,” the No. 30 pick will typically be a traditional first-round pick, not a competitive-balance pick.)

2001: Noah Lowry (30), Jeff Mathis (33), Bronson Sardinha (34), J.D. Martin (35), John Rheinecker (37), David Wright (38)

2002: Dan Meyer (34), Jeremy Brown (35), Mark Teahen (39)

2003: Mitch Maier (30), Matt Murton (32), Omar Quintanilla (33), Luis Atilano (35), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (36), Adam Jones (37), James Houser (38), Tony Gwynn, Jr. (39), Jay Sborz (40)

2004: Eric Hurley (30), J.P. Howell (31), Zach Jackson (32), Matt Fox (35), Danny Putnam (36), Gio Gonzalez (38), Huston Street (40)

2005: Tyler Greene (30), Ryan Tucker (34), Cesar Ramos (35), Travis Buck (36), Trevor Bell (37)

This distribution of outcomes is fairly telling — in 55 picks, there’s one superstar (Wright), two very good players (Jones and Gonzalez), a good closer (Street), a decent regular (Saltalamacchia) and a smattering of role players. This was a better five-year period for picks 31 through 40 than the five-year periods before or after it, and still the chances of nabbing a meaningful player with one of those picks was, it appears, relatively small. For competitive balance picks after the second round, the chances of grabbing a good player are even smaller. (Well, at least theoretically. From 2001 through 2005, the list of quality players chosen between No. 66 and No. 75 includes Dan Haren, Kurt Suzuki, Jason Vargas, Wade Davis and Chase Headley. That’s not bad.)

Gaby Sanchez, who has produced 0.4 WAR for the Pirates this season, is more valuable than most players from the 31 through 40 range who made the majors, and obviously also more valuable than the ones who didn’t make the majors. He’s also cheap, making $1.75MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Notably, though, the Pirates quickly slotted him into the short end of a platoon role, meaning that they recognized him as a part-time player.

Is it worth it to give up a shot at the next David Wright for a part-time player? That depends on how great the shot is, and the position of the franchise making the trade. The Marlins were selling off their disappointing 2012 team at the time of the Sanchez deal, so it made sense for them to take a shot in the dark at finding the next David Wright. But the Pirates were trying to position themselves as a contender, so Sanchez had more value for them than a shot in the dark did.

Another consideration is the bonus pool allotment for competitive balance picks. Last year’s pool value for the No. 35 pick was $1.4MM; this year, that figure will be slightly higher. So the Marlins will have a little over $1.4MM extra to distribute to all its draft picks, assuming they sign whoever they take at No. 35, while the Pirates will forfeit the ability to spend that money. The Astros, for example, used a large bonus pool to their advantage in the later rounds last year, signing players like Lance McCullers Jr. for well over the bonus recommendation.

In the next few years, teams’ ability to trade competitive balance selections should allow us to begin to see how teams value draft picks. The competitive balance picks are late enough in the draft that they’re fairly low-percentage plays. They’re still valuable, however, so we should see rebuilding small-market and low-revenue teams try to acquire them — either one-for-one (or more or less one-for-one) for role players like Gaby Sanchez, or as part of packages in deals involving more premium talents.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nationals To Promote Nate Karns

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The Nationals will promote pitcher Nate Karns, who will start against Kevin Gausman and the Orioles tomorrow, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post notes (on Twitter). Karns will start in place of Ross Detwiler, who has a right oblique strain.

Karns ranked 99th on Keith Law's top 100 prospects list (Insider-only). He did not rank in Baseball America or MLB.com's lists. Law notes that Karns "was 93-97 as a starter with a yellow hammer of a curveball at 80-85 that he threw for more and more strikes as the season went on, meaning he could have two pitches that grade out at 70 on the 20-80 scale." Baseball America's Prospect Handbook lists Karns as the Nationals' fifth-best prospect and pegs him as a future mid-rotation starter or high-leverage reliever.

Karns, 25, had pitched this season at Double-A Harrisburg, posting a 4.60 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. He has not yet pitched at the Triple-A level, so his promotion qualifies as a bit of a surprise. It appears likely that the Nationals will send Karns down at some point, but if they don't, he will accumulate 125 days of service time this year. That means he might be eligible for arbitration as a Super Two player after the 2015 season, although the exact date that will establish the threshold of Super Two eligibility that season is unclear. He would be eligible for free agency after the 2019 season.

Second Biggest Contract Of The 2013-14 Offseason

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Getting the second-biggest free agent contract of the offseason isn't a bad thing – just ask Josh Hamilton, Prince Fielder, and Jayson Werth.  But while those players all signed for more than $100MM, it's not clear yet if anyone in the 2013-14 free agent class will receive a nine-figure contract aside from Robinson Cano, who could reach $200MM.  That leads us to today's poll question…

Cubs Claim Alex Burnett

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The Cubs claimed righty reliever Alex Burnett off waivers from the Orioles, tweets MLB.com's Carrie Muskat.  Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com first reported Burnett had been claimed. Burnett had been designated for assignment Thursday to open a roster spot for highly regarded young pitcher Kevin Gausman.  For the Cubs, Burnett will replace Kyuji Fujikawa, who will be placed on the DL today with an elbow injury.

Burnett was claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays from the Twins on March 29th and quickly designated for assignment, at which point the Orioles claimed him.  The 25-year-old made two relief appearances for Baltimore, surrendering three runs in his most recent outing.  For his career, he has a 4.73 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 0.74 HR/9 in 171 1/3 innings in parts of four seasons.

Mariners Designate Francisco Martinez

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The Mariners designated outfielder Francisco Martinez for assignment, according to a team press release.  The move opens a 40-man roster spot for infield prospect Nick Franklin.  In addition to selecting Franklin's contract, the Mariners also optioned Dustin Ackley and Lucas Luetge and recalled Hector Noesi.

Martinez, 22, was hitting .206/.242/.254 in 136 Double-A plate appearances.  Two years ago, Martinez, Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells, and Chance Ruffin were traded by the Tigers to the Mariners for pitchers Doug Fister and David Pauley.  In 293 2/3 innings since the trade, Fister has a 3.10 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 0.64 HR/9 for the Tigers, and he remains under their control through 2015.  Fister's ERA since the trade is 13th in all of baseball among those with 250 innings.  Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski acquired four-plus years of something close to an ace, while Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is left with reliever Furbush and converted starter Ruffin. 

 

Minor Moves: Maya, Hensley

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Today's minor moves…

  • The Nationals announced Yunesky Maya cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A.  The 31-year-old had been designated for assignment on Friday to open a roster spot for Jeff Kobernus.  Maya had signed out of Cuba for $8MM in 2010, and has totaled 59 big league innings with a 5.80 ERA.
  • The Brewers signed reliever Clay Hensley to take Donovan Hand's place at Triple-A, tweets MLB.com's Adam McCalvy.  Hand joined the big league club yesterday.  Hensley had been released from the Reds' Triple-A affiliate a week ago, after posting a 4.00 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, and 1.00 HR/9 in 18 innings.  Hensley is best known for allowing home run #755 to Barry Bonds in 2007, which tied Hank Aaron's record.  Bonds would go on to hit seven additional home runs, the final one coming off Ubaldo Jimenez.  Bonds was indicted for perjury and obstruction of justice related to the government's BALCO investigation that offseason, and his legal issues and reported steroid use led to what his agent called a "conspiracy" among teams not to sign him.
  • Six players currently reside in DFA limbo: Francisco Martinez of the Mariners, Michael Bowden of the Cubs, Robert Andino of the Mariners, Billy Buckner of the Angels, and Francisco Rondon and Ben Francisco of the Yankees.

Mariners Promote Nick Franklin; Demote Ackley

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Second baseman/shortstop Nick Franklin has been called up and will join the Mariners today, tweets Ryan Divish of The News Tribune.  Franklin will have to be added to the team's 40-man roster; he'll take the place of a minor leaguer, tweets Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times.  The news comes on the heels of Carlos Triunfel's season debut, which occurred Friday.  Triunfel's one start came at second base, though both Mariners prospects can play both middle infield positions.  Former first-rounder Dustin Ackley, meanwhile, has limped to a .205/.266/.250 line and will join Jesus Montero at Triple-A, according to Shannon Drayer of ESPN 710.

Franklin, 22, was drafted 27th overall by the Mariners out of high school in 2009.  He was hitting .324/.440/.472 in 177 Triple-A plate appearances, a vast improvement from his production at that level last year.  Franklin's rankings on top 100 prospect lists prior to the season: 69th by ESPN's Keith Law, 79th by Baseball America, and 43rd by MLB.com.  BA ranked him fifth among Mariners prospects prior to the season, noting, "He profiles as a solid regular who could play in a few All-Star Games." 

If he stays up all year, Franklin will accumulate 126 days of big league service, making Super Two arbitration eligibility possible after the 2015 season.  It's unknown whether that amount of service will put Franklin within the top 22% of the two-to-three class at that point.  Super Two players go to arbitration four times instead of the usual three.

AL East Notes: Ellsbury, Red Sox, Yankees, Breslow

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As we celebrate Memorial Day, we have a full slate of interleague baseball to take in.  It's Subway Series time in New York as the Yankees are in Queens to take on the Mets.  The Bombers are tied atop the AL East with the Red Sox thanks to Boston's three consecutive wins against the Indians, but the Yankees could gain some separation with a strong showing against their crosstown rivals.  Here's more out of the AL East…

  • Jacoby Ellsbury's free agency will be extra complicated thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, something that Michael Bourn knows all about, Tim Britton of The Providence Journal writes.  “It was tough,” Bourn said of his value being affected by draft pick compensation. “You really can’t change anything about it. It affected people in different ways if you had that attached to you. It's part of the process and you just have to deal with it now. You aren't going to change anything by pouting about it.”
  • Before claiming left-handed reliever David Huff off waivers from the Indians, the Yankees asked the Pirates about Mike Zagurski, writes George A. King III of the New York Post.  The Bucs said no, however, and selected Zagurski's contract this morning after transferring Jeff Karstens to the 60-day disabled list.
  • After he was released from the Brewers' High-A affiliate in 2004, Craig Breslow almost gave up on baseball to pursue a career in orthopedic surgery or sports medicine, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal.  Nine years later, Breslow is a bona fide major league reliever for the Red Sox.  The left-hander is in the first multi-year deal of his career, a two-year, $6.25MM pact with a $4MM team option for 2015.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

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One of the game's most powerful regular catchers is in his contract year.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia is on track to become a free agent the old-fashioned way – by accumulating the necessary six years of Major League service time.  Because the Red Sox catcher never signed a multiyear extension, he'll be just 28 when he signs his next contract.

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Salty was drafted 36th overall by the Braves in 2003, a supplemental pick for the loss of free agent Mike Remlinger.  When backup catcher Brayan Pena hit the DL in May of '07, Saltalamacchia got the call.  The Braves had Scott Thorman at first base at the time, so Saltalamacchia was able to stick even after Pena returned.  Catcher Brian McCann had signed an extension with the Braves months earlier, however, so the switch-hitting Saltalamacchia was prime trade bait in what turned out to be one of the decade's most memorable deals.  At the 2007 trade deadline, he was a major part of the Rangers' haul for Mark Teixeira, a deal that also sent Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Beau Jones to Texas.

The '07 Rangers had Gerald Laird behind the dish, but first base was vacated with the Teixeira deal.  Saltalamacchia split his time evenly between the two positions that year.  The two battled for playing time in '08, though both dealt with injuries.  Laird was dealt after the season, leaving the Rangers with a tandem of Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden.  Though Salty won the gig, he was sidelined by thoracic outlet syndrome in '09, and the Rangers acquired Ivan Rodriguez in August.  Saltalamacchia spent the early part of 2010 recovering from surgery for that condition and battling other injuries, also developing a mental block regarding throwing the ball back to the pitcher.

Though the Rangers' depth at catcher wasn't what they thought it'd become, they still felt comfortable trading Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox that summer for three minor leaguers: first baseman Chris McGuiness, starter Roman Mendez, and catcher Michael Thomas.  Only Mendez charted as one of Boston's top 30 prospects according to Baseball America (#23), and it seemed the Rangers were selling low on a player they once regarded very highly.  Salty didn't see much time with the Red Sox in 2010, as he battled a lower leg infection and they had Victor Martinez behind the plate.

The Sox still had Jason Varitek in the mix in 2011, but Saltalamacchia did catch in 100 games for the first time.  Salty has been the team's primary catcher since then, even with David Ross added this past offseason.  Saltalamacchia has compiled a .231/.295/.453 line in 977 plate appearances for the Red Sox from 2011 to present, hitting 46 home runs.  Among those who have caught at least 200 games since then, Salty's home run total ranks fifth, and his slugging percentage ranks second.  He's lacking in the OBP department, with a .288 mark from 2011-12 reminiscent of Rod Barajas.

Something has changed in that regard, as Saltalamacchia has a respectable .336 OBP so far in 143 plate appearances this year.  One driver is his 11.2% walk rate, easily the best of his career if it holds up.  He's also hitting for a little higher batting average than usual, which is surprising given the worst strikeout rate of his career (33.6%).  That's Adam Dunn/Mark Reynolds territory, and often results in a batting average barely above the Mendoza line.  A switch-hitter, Salty has struggled against left-handed pitching, with a .198/.257/.326 line in his career.

Saltalamacchia is firmly regarded as an offense-first catcher, though he's not satisfied with that.  He's fairly easy to run on, but statistically might be quietly decent at blocking and framing pitches.

Speaking to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe last week, Saltalamacchia noted that the future is on his mind "In the sense that I don’t want to go anywhere else."  Blake Swihart might be Boston's catcher of the future, but he's in High A currently.  Ryan Lavarnway, 25, has already caught 38 games for the Sox since '11, more than quieting defensive concerns along the way.  He's the biggest threat to Saltalamacchia's future with the team, especially with a solid backup already under contract for '14 in Ross.  An everyday catcher, even with some flaws, often commands $6-8MM per year on the free agent market.  And as the only regular who will be under 30 years old, Salty and agent Jim Munsey should easily find a multiyear offer.  The Red Sox could find big savings in replacing him with Lavarnway.

If he does reach the open market, Saltalamacchia will be competing with John Buck, McCann, A.J. Pierzynski, and Carlos Ruiz for a regular spot somewhere.  Salty is significantly younger than the other catchers, aside from former teammate McCann.  McCann will have a different market, however, as he could receive a qualifying offer and pursue a contract at or above the four-year, $50MM deal Victor Martinez signed with the Tigers after the 2010 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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