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AL Notes: Napoli, Abreu, McClendon, Orioles

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Figures such as John Farrell of the Red Sox and new Reds manager Bryan Price have altered the debate on whether pitching coaches make good managers, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe writes. Cafardo says names such as Greg Maddux and Red Sox pitching coach Juan Nieves could surface as candidates for openings in the future as pitching becomes a larger part of the game. Let's take a look at the latest from around the American League:

  • Within the same article, Cafardo quotes an anonymous general manager who says he expects a team to offer Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli a three-year contract. Boston would prefer to give Napoli a short-term deal, Cafardo says. However, they'll enter the offseason needing a first baseman after missing out on Jose Dariel Abreu.
  • The Indians were never close to offering Abreu a deal in the same range as the one he got from the White Sox, Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer writes in response to a reader question.
  • Jake Peavy took the hill in Game 3 tonight for the Red Sox, but as Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald notes, he nearly became a Cardinal earlier this season. St. Louis was involved in talks with the White Sox at the deadline for Peavy, who was eventually shipped to Boston as part of a three-team trade. Peavy tells Lauber he's happy with the way things turned out.
  • Tigers hitting coach Lloyd McClendon says he'll interview for the Mariners' manager job, MLive.com's Chris Iott writes. That confirms an earlier report by Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. McClendon has already interviewed for the Tigers' manager opening. 
  • The Orioles' No. 1 priority this winter will be improving the starting rotation, but Executive Vice President Dan Duquette won't make a big commitment in free agency or trade top prospects to do so, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports.

NL Notes: Beltran, La Russa, Rockies

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Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis offers his thoughts on this year's World Series contenders in a special piece for the Los Angeles Times. In the article, Ellis breaks down the Dodgers' loss to the Cardinals in the NL Championship Series, as well as the approaches of the St. Louis and Boston offenses. More Saturday night National League links:

  • Congratulations to the Cardinals' Carlos Beltran, who was presented with the Roberto Clemente Award earlier this evening for his contributions on and off the field. As Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes, the Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy, the high school that the outfielder established in Puerto Rico, has graduated its first class of students.
  • Many of the players that Tony La Russa led to a World Series victory in 2011 as manager of the Cardinals are no longer with the team, but La Russa says that the organizational culture remains unchanged. The team is “set up real well for the next three to four years," he comments in an article by Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. La Russa also offers praise for current Cardinals Manager Mike Matheny and his thoughts on the role of the manager in today's game.
  • Sources tell Troy Renck of The Denver Post that the Rockies bid as much as $63MM for Jose Dariel Abreu, who eventually signed with the White Sox for $68MM over six years. Renck says the revelation that the Rockies are willing to go as high as $10MM annually for a player is an "intriguing development" and notes that the club is expected to sift through possibilities in the outfield and at first base. The Rockies also appear to ready to listen to offers for Dexter Fowler, Renck writes.

 

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals came close to a playoff berth for the first time in decades in 2013, but major questions surround their rotation heading into the offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players

Contract Options

Free Agents

General Manager Dayton Moore’s rebuild of the Royals' organization finally bore fruit at the Major League level in 2013, as products of the farm system and trades helped propel the team to its first winning campaign since 2003. No longer the American League Central’s perennial doormat, the Royals remained in the hunt for a wild card spot until the final weeks of the season, a significant step forward for a club that hasn’t been considered a legitimate contender in at least 20 years. The accomplishment netted manager Ned Yost a two-year contract extension, and something similar could be in the pipeline for Moore. His current deal runs through 2014, and it’s not often that a manager’s contract extends beyond that of the GM who hired him.

Following an 86-win season, conventional wisdom might suggest that Royals officials simply need to make a few tweaks to push the club into contention in the AL Central. And indeed, with players considered to be franchise cornerstones at several positions across the diamond, the Royals are unlikely to see a large-scale makeover this winter on the offensive side of the ball. Young players such as first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Salvador Perez turned in strong seasons. Shortstop Alcides Escobar and third baseman Mike Moustakas were liabilities at the plate, but both continued to play good defense and look to get at least one more season’s worth of plate appearances to try to figure things out. Left fielder Alex Gordon and designated hitter Billy Butler, other franchise fixtures, are coming off of down seasons but have time left on long-term extensions.

The Royals’ bullpen is also unlikely to see significant turnover. While we can’t count on Royals relievers to be as dominant in 2014 as they were this year — the unit’s 2.55 ERA was easily the AL’s best — all key contributors are in line to return next season. Pieces like Greg Holland (67 IP, 1.21 ERA), Tim Collins (53 1/3 IP, 3.54 ERA) and Aaron Crow (48 IP, 3.38 ERA) are under club control for years to come, so expect any bullpen signings to be limited to deals for situational arms. Luke Hochevar is a bit of a wildcard, as his success this year in the pen (70 1/3 IP, 1.92 ERA) could lead the Royals to try him again as a starter.

Things change when we turn to the rotation, where Moore and his lieutenants may find themselves making significant investments this winter just to stay in place. Ervin Santana stands out as the most prominent example — his 211 innings of 3.24 ERA ball will be tough to replace if he departs to another team in free agency. While there’s some possibility that the Royals could retain Santana — they’ve already indicated they plan to extend him a qualifying offer, which would depress other teams’ enthusiasm for the righty — the No. 6 ranked player on our Free Agent Power Rankings is likely to attract plenty of other suitors. In addition, Moore has said that he expects 2014’s payroll to hover in the range of this season’s $82MM, suggesting Santana could quickly price himself beyond the Royals’ budget. Another decision looms with free agent Bruce Chen, whose 3.27-ERA, 121-inning season places him firmly in crafty lefty territory. The Royals may opt to pass on bringing back the 36-year-old Chen, however, if his asking price extends to two years.

There’s more uncertainty in the rotation behind Santana and Chen. It’s an open question how long Jeremy Guthrie can continue his low strikeout rate tightrope act, as his K% fell to 12.3% this season, good for last in the majors among qualified starters. Guthrie doesn’t walk many batters, but it’s difficult to survive in today’s game if you don’t miss more bats than Guthrie does. Elsewhere in the rotation, Wade Davis may get another shot at turning things around in 2014, but he should be on a short leash if he doesn’t turn in better results than the 5.32 ERA he coughed up this year. Even rotation anchor James Shields, the prize of the controversial Wil Myers trade, saw his peripherals slip despite a sterling 3.15 ERA in 228 2/3 innings. If he posts similar strikeout and walk rates next year, Shields could see his ERA rise to something more in line with the 3.72 that xFIP projected him for this year.

Luckily, several young pitchers may be ready to help the Royals’ staff in 2014. Yordano Ventura turned heads in the season’s final weeks by lighting up the radar gun with a triple-digit fastball, and he should be in the mix for a rotation spot in 2014 Spring Training — particularly if the club can’t hang on to Santana. Top prospect Kyle Zimmer could reach the big-league team at some point next season. There’s also Danny Duffy, who clawed his way back from Tommy John surgery to make five starts as the season drew to a close. If one of these three can stick in the majors in 2014, the rotation picture looks magnitudes brighter.

In an October Kansas City Star article, Moore was quoted as saying that the Royals would like to add or retain a veteran starter, given the inexperience of pitchers such as Ventura and Duffy. One-year deals for a reclamation project along the lines of Dan Haren or Phil Hughes could make sense, or the Royals could look to swing a trade for an arm with bounce-back potential, as they did with Santana around this time last year. However, Moore adds in the same article that it’s not inconceivable that the Royals enter 2014 without having acquired a veteran pitcher. “The bullpen was used very wisely this year,” Moore said. “ … If our bullpen has to be used a little bit more next year in the first part of the season, so be it.” Comments such as these suggest that the Royals will look to make an acquisition but are comfortable with the pieces they have in place if the right opportunity doesn’t materialize.

After the team scored just 648 runs this season, many Royals fans expect Moore to conduct a thorough search for offensive help over the winter. Second base stands out as an immediate need, as Royals second basemen hit just .240/.296/.306 for the year. Emilio Bonifacio slashed his way to a .285/.352/.348 line and stole 16 bases down the stretch after coming over from the Blue Jays in August, appearing to stabilize the position for the Royals. However, The Star’s Bob Dutton writes that the club will still look to acquire a second baseman this winter, with an eye toward shifting Bonifacio to a utility role. Who might pique their interest?

The Royals’ name surfaced frequently in trade talks surrounding the Angels’ Howie Kendrick in July, and as an above-average hitter who’s provided quality defense at second base, he appears to be a fit. However, Kendrick will require a significant prospect haul in return. Ian Kinsler is another veteran target, given the Rangers’ middle infielder logjam, but he’s just a year into a five-year, $75MM contract — consummating a deal would likely require the Rangers to absorb a significant portion of that amount. It goes without saying, but trades for proven performers like these would be expensive and risky for a small-market team like the Royals. And yet, I’d be surprised to see Moore target a buy-low candidate like Danny Espinosa or Rickie Weeks – with Bonifacio in the fold, the Royals can afford to be a bit more selective.

It's worth noting that ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted earlier this week that the Royals are "ready to talk" about including Butler in a trade this winter, a report Dutton later confirmed. Dutton noted, however, that Moore has indicated he's willing to trade any player in the right deal. Dealing Country Breakfast for say, an everyday second baseman this winter would be selling low on a player who posted a 116 OPS+ this season but who had previously managed a mark of at least 125 every year since 2009. It would also immediately task the Royals with finding DH help outside the organization, as there doesn't appear to be a player in the minors ready to replace Butler.

If the Royals can't put together a trade for a second baseman, Omar Infante could be an option — behind Robinson Cano, he’s probably the best player available at the keystone in free agency. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $25MM deal for the 31-year-old, which might be in the Royals’ price range. Beyond Infante, though, it’s an uninspiring market.

The outfield would also appear to be in need of an upgrade — Royals outfielders collectively hit just .259/.314/.392 in 2013. However, that same group also combined for a 52.5 UZR, suggesting that they were the majors’ best defensive outfield by a wide margin. Adding a marquee name like Shin-Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury is likely out of the question for the Royals, and the club may eventually decide that the defense-focused unit they have in place is a better fit for spacious Kauffman Stadium than a free agent outfielder from the second tier. Nelson Cruz, for example, hasn’t posted quality defensive numbers for years. And in Kauffman, he may not provide enough of an offensive upgrade over the late-season David Lough–Justin Maxwell platoon to counteract the defensive downgrade. Instead, a player like Marlon Byrd could work for the Royals, as he grades out as a strong right fielder and could provide an offensive boost even with some regression from this year's standout season.

The Royals found themselves on the cusp of contention in 2013 for the first time in decades. However, the club must address multiple holes this offseason if it hopes to stay there. Significant regression is likely in the starting rotation, and success in 2014 likely hinges on whether Moore & Co. can counteract it. The Royals will also need to find a way to add to their young offense, as this isn’t a playoff-caliber lineup as currently projected.

Managerial/Coaching Links: Nats, Cubs, Tigers

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Denard Span had been hoping that bench coach Randy Knorr would be promoted to the team's manager, but he tells James Wagner and Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that he's excited by the hiring of Matt Williams. Right-hander Ryan Mattheus tells the Post duo that he grew up watching Williams as a Giants fan and used to emulate his game in the backyard, so he's particularly excited about the hiring. Here's more on the Nats and the manager/coaching situations from around the league…

  • From that same piece, Wagner and Kilgore report that the pitchers are hopeful that the Nationals will retain pitching coach Steve McCatty, the team's longest-tenured coach. Hitting coach Rick Schu, who coached with Williams in Arizona from 2007-09, will remain in the organization in some capacity, even if Williams wants a different hitting coach, GM Mike Rizzo said.
  • A.J. Hinch and Rick Renteria will receive second interviews for the Cubs' managerial vacancy, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Cubs will conduct an in-person interview with Eric Wedge on Tuesday but have already spoken with him on the phone, Rosenthal adds.
  • Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo is on the list of managerial candidates for the Tigers, Mariners and Cubs, as pointed out most recently by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Lovullo tells James Schmel of MLive.com that he is indeed interested in being a manager, but obviously his sole focus at the moment is on the World Series. According to Schmel, the Tigers' list of candidates currently includes Lovullo, current third base coach Tom Brookens, current bullpen coach Mike Rojas and former big league managers Manny Acta and Dusty Baker. Lloyd McClendon and Tim Wallach have already interviewed.

Free Agent Profile: Ervin Santana

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It's been an eventful 12 months for Ervin Santana. It seems hard to believe that just a year ago, Royals GM Dayton Moore's decision to acquire Santana and $1MM for minor leaguer Brandon Sisk was widely panned. Since that time, Santana resurfaced as one of the better pitchers in the American League, one of the game's top trade chips at the deadline and of course, one of the most desirable free agents on the market.

Strengths/Pros

Santana shaved nearly two runs off his ERA this season, dropping it to 3.24 and crossing 200 innings for the fifth time in his nine-year career. Durability is one of Santana's biggest assets; he's only been on the disabled list twice in his career. Dating back to 2011, Santana's average of 6.5 innings per start is the highest of any notable free agent. That ability to work deep into games is a boost for teams looking to avoid overtaxing their bullpens.  Santana-Ervin

Santana's 92.4 mph average fastball is among the fastest for free agent starters this season. Only Matt Garza, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett and Scott Kazmir throw harder. Lester's option will be picked up, however, while Volquez and Johnson posted two of baseball's worst ERAs. If you're looking for a starter that can average better than 92 mph on his fastball, Santana is a cut above the rest. In terms of swinging-strike rate, only Burnett, Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco and Chris Capuano topped Santana's 10 percent mark.

Santana's career 2.8 BB/9 rate is a testament to his excellent control, but he took that a step further in 2013. Santana's 2.2 BB/9 rate is fifth-best among qualified starters. Removing three intentional walks from the equation, that number drops to 2.0. Santana also continued to display an increased ground-ball rate, posting a career-best 46.5 percent mark in 2013 — his third-straight season of at least 43.2 percent.

Age is on Santana's side; he's set to turn 31 in December, making him younger than a number of his peers and bringing the promise of a few more of his prime years over the course of his next contract.

Weaknesses/Cons

Santana is homer-prone (career 1.22 HR/9), and the homer bug bit fiercely in 2012 when his 39 long balls allowed were the most in the Majors. That season was a clear outlier, as evidenced by a remarkably fluky 18.9 percent homer-to-flyball ratio (the league average that season was 11.8 percent, and Santana's career mark is 11 percent). Even if you ignore the outlier season, however, only twice has he posted a HR/9 better than the league average.

For a player who is positioned as one of the top pitchers on the free agent market, Santana doesn't strike hitters out at an elite rate. His 6.9 K/9 in 2013 was below the league average of 7.2 for starting pitchers, and he hasn't averaged more than 7.0 punchouts per nine innings since 2008. 

I'd be remiss not to point out that Santana was little more than a salary dump a year ago at this time. The Royals' acquisition of him was widely questioned, as he was coming off a season in which he posted a 5.16 ERA — his second ERA north of 5.00 in a four-year span. Santana does not have consistency on his side, and he pitched below replacement level in 2012.

Part of the reason for his other 5.00+ ERA season (5.03 in 2009) was that he partially tore his UCL and elected to rehab and pitch through it. His ERA that season is probably more representative of the injury than his ability, as he posted a 7.81 first-half ERA but a 3.90 second-half ERA (3.09 in his final 12 appearances). Santana has never had the injury corrected, but it doesn't appear to be a major issue, as he's thrown 980 innings since partially tearing the ligament. Put another way, Santana has thrown nearly as many innings since the 2009 injury as one of his competitors, Josh Johnson, has thrown in his entire career dating back to 2005.

Advanced metrics such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA all feel that even in Santana's best seasons, he's more of a 3.90-4.00 ERA pitcher. Those may be a bit unfair, as he's shown the ability to consistently post a BABIP that's better than the league average, as seen in his .282 career total. It's still hard to ignore the fact that Santana has had just one truly elite season — a 219-inning, six-fWAR (five rWAR) masterpiece back in 2008. He's never been able to replicate his velocity, swinging-strike rate or strikeout rate from that season.

Santana's strong overall numbers in 2013 make a qualifying offer an absolute no-brainer for the Royals, so a team will absolutely have to forfeit its first- or second-round pick to sign him.

Personal

Per the Royals media guide, Santana and his wife, Amy, reside in the Dominican Republic in the offseason. He enjoys teaching children about baseball fundamentals and is outspoken in the confidence he has in himself and his teammates on Twitter. Santana was a hot topic at MLBTR over the summer months, and he showed off his playful side by making this Youtube video that described how it felt to be the target of so many trade rumors.

Market

Santana parlayed his rebound campaign into a No. 6 ranking on Tim Dierkes' Free Agent Power Rankings, leapfrogging Garza as the top domestic free agent pitcher on the market (Masahiro Tanaka, at No. 5, is the top overall pitcher).

The Royals have made it known that they'd like to re-sign him, but if they're truly reluctant to offer more than three years, Santana is as good as gone. Any team in search of pitching figures to at least place a call on Santana, meaning that the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Twins, Indians, Mariners, Giants, Rockies, Pirates, Cubs, Nationals, Phillies and Mets should all have varying degrees of interest.

Of course, not all those teams will be willing to bid high enough to land his services, nor will they all be keen on surrendering a draft pick to acquire Santana. The Twins are one team that has recently said they'd forfeit their second-round selection if they liked a player enough, though Santana is far pricier than their typical mold. On the flip-side of the coin, the Mets seem strongly against the idea of sacrificing their second-round selection for any player other than Shin-Soo Choo.

Expected Contract

ESPN's Keith Law recently wrote (Insider subscription required and recommended) that a four-year deal is a likelihood for Santana on the free agent market, adding that he prefers him to Garza and Dan Haren.

I find a four-year deal to be the floor for Santana, and would expect agent Bean Stringfellow of Proformance to seek a five-year pact. Given the sheer volume of teams looking to bolster their rotations and the relatively weak crop of free agent hurlers on the market, Santana has an honest chance at getting there. We've already received a glimpse at what the early market for free agent pitching will look like, with Tim Lincecum agreeing to a two-year, $35MM extension with the Giants.

Going back to 2008, Anibal Sanchez, Zack Greinke, C.J. Wilson, Yu Darvish, Cliff Lee, John Lackey, CC Sabathia and Burnett have inked free agent deals for five or more seasons. Each of those players was considered one of the top two starters on the market in his respective free agent class. Second-tier pitchers such as Derek Lowe and Edwin Jackson have been able to find lofty four-year commitments, and Santana enters free agency on the heels of a vastly superior season to the one that led to Jackson's four-year, $52MM pact with the Cubs.

As ludicrous as it would've sounded a year ago — and improbable as it will sound to some even now — my expectation is that Santana finds a team willing to push the limits and offer a five-year, $75MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Mujica, Rosenthal, Martinez, Tigers

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Many MLBTR readers will enjoy a read of this short piece, in which Luke Epplin of the New Yorker explores the origins of baseball's status as a thinking man's game, prominently featuring legendary hurler Christy Mathewson. In present day news, here are some links from the game's central divisions:

  • Though he seems to have quite a positive attitude, deposed Cardinals closer Edward Mujica has been relegated mostly to a cheerleading role in the post-season, writes MLB.com's Chad Thornburg. While Shelby Miller has also seen his role virtually eliminated, it doesn't figure to have any impact on his earning potential. But for Mujica, who MLBTR's Steve Adams predicted to garner a commitment of over $20MM on the upcoming free agent market, the lack of trust shown by the Cards quite possibly could create doubt amongst other franchises, particularly those looking for a closer.
  • The success of St. Louis's young arms is well documented, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch provides an interesting look at the development of the team's current late inning relief duo. Both Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez are hard-throwing converted position players who have settled into bullpen roles in their early twenties. And both could still become impact starters.
  • With nine players eligible for arbitration, the Tigers could have a lot of negotiating to do. As MLive.com's Chris Iott explains, it may prove difficult to reach agreement on a salary with starter Max Scherzer's agent, Scott Boras, given the righty's outstanding season. The most likely Detroit non-tender, according to Iott, is lefty Phil Coke, with utilityman Don Kelly also a candidate.

East Notes: Strasburg, Harper, Drew, Orioles

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The Nationals informed the press today that three critically important players had undergone "successful" surgeries, none of which are expected to present obstacles to a normal Spring Training. Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com, who was first to report the news on Twitter, rounds up the latest here. Staff ace Stephen Strasburg had bone chips removed from his right elbow; outfielder Bryce Harper had work done to the bursa in his left knee; and first baseman Adam LaRoche had his left elbow cleaned up. Each is reportedly on a four to six week timetable, though as Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington notes, bone chip removal in a throwing elbow typically requires a three to four month window for a full recovery. Elsewhere in baseball's eastern divisions …

  • Stephen Drew of the Red Sox has had one of the most anemic offensive post-seasons ever, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders whether it will impact his free agency. Of course, as Sherman also details, Drew has been outstanding defensively during the Sox' run to the World Series. The expectation, he writes, is that Boston will make Drew a qualifying offer and attempt to keep him around, with the shortstop ultimately pulling down three or even four years at around $12MM a pop.
  • Looking at things from the perspectives of the New York clubs, each of whom could have a use for Drew, Sherman says that Drew figures to cost too much for the Mets' liking. For the Yankees, meanwhile, Drew seems more of a second-level possibility whose attractiveness will depend upon who else the Yanks can sign and the status of Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter.
  • With managerial openings beginning to be filled, the Orioles are likely to act soon to decide upon a pitching coach, writes Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun. The leading candidates, according to Encina, include three men with prior experience as pitching coaches (Rich Dubee, Carl Willis, and Dave Wallace) along with Andy Hawkins, the Rangers' bullpen coach.

Poll: The Lincecum Extension

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In the wake of Tim Lincecum's recent re-up with the Giants, I took a look back (using MLBTR's Extension Tracker) to see if there were any comparable starting pitching extensions agreed upon during post-season play. There were: each of the last four offseasons has seen one (and only one) rotation member sign a new deal with his club during the month of October. Though the Yankees' massive extension of C.C. Sabathia is not really comparable, the other two deals are. Rather than just asking for an up-or-down vote on the Lincecum deal, I thought it might be more interesting to approach the question in a bit of historical context.

In 2010, the Dodgers decided to hand Ted Lilly a three-year, $33MM deal. In doing so, Los Angeles kept Lilly from reaching the market as a probable Type-A free agent, which might have suppressed his value and would have allowed the club to recoup two draft picks if he signed elsewhere. And in 2012, the White Sox gave Jake Peavy a two-year, $29MM deal, including a club option for 2015 that could have vested (but will not) to become a player option. In so doing, Chicago also agreed to pay Peavy a deferred $4MM buyout on the $22MM option the club already held on him. Of course, the Sox could also have decided to make Peavy a qualifying offer — at essentially the same average annual value they promised him for two years — to keep his price down in free agency and deliver a first-round draft choice if he went elsewhere. 

Of course, we now know how those two deals turned out for the clubs signing them. Lilly was solid, if unspectacular, in 2011, putting up a 3.97 ERA in 192 2/3 innings. He was off to a nice start over his first 48 1/3 innings in 2012 when he was knocked out of commission by a shoulder injury. He was ineffective in just 23 big league innings this season, and ultimately returned less than 2 WAR over the life of the contract. Meanwhile, Peavy fell well short of his outstanding 2012 season in the first year of his new deal, ultimately throwing 144 2/3 innings of 4.17 ERA baseball, good for 2.4 fWAR and 1.5 rWAR. He was reasonably effective, but hardly dominant, for a sputtering White Sox squad before suffering a broken rib that endangered his status as a trade deadline target. Nevertheless, his pre-deadline return enabled the South Siders to flip Peavy to the Red Sox and return prospect Avisail Garcia (and others), while shedding the remainder of his salary.

Much as with Lilly and Peavy, Lincecum signed his new contract before his present club could make him a qualifying offer that would have limited his free agent prospects. Indeed, the San Francisco front office sought to justify Lincecum's price tag in part by noting that he would have received about the same amount had he accepted consecutive qualifying offers this year and next. 

Ultimately, the Lilly and Peavy deals show two possible outcomes for Lincecum's own contract. Though Lincecum is somewhat younger than the other two, he has nearly as many innings on his arm as they did. Injury or ineffectiveness could render the deal a major waste of resources. Or the Freak could pitch well enough for other teams to view the remainder of his contract as a valuable commodity. (Even if his no-trade clause would present a significant barrier to an actual deal.) Which outcome seems more likely at this point?

Quick Hits: Jimenez, Ellsbury, Cubs, 2014 Draft

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As the World Series shifts to St. Louis this weekend, here's the latest from around baseball…

  • The Indians "would love" having Ubaldo Jimenez back on a one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer contract (with an option for 2015) but not on an expensive long-term deal, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer says on a podcast with Chris Fedor.  Tim Lincecum's two-year, $35MM contract from the Giants has put the cost of pitching out of Cleveland's range for Jimenez, who the Tribe feel has been too inconsistent to merit a multiyear commitment.
  • "There is so much money in the game, free agency is crazy," an anonymous GM tells Peter Gammons (Twitter link).  The GM also believes Lincecum's deal will end any chance of Jimenez returning to Cleveland and that Jacoby Ellsbury will earn a contract worth more than $100MM in free agency this winter.
  • MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, meanwhile, thinks Ellsbury's eventual contract could approach the $150MM threshold (Twitter link).
  • There is at least one mystery candidate on the Cubs' short list of potential managers, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.  Rick Renteria, Torey Lovullo, A.J. Hinch, Manny Acta and Dave Martinez have already been connected to the job and Eric Wedge is the latest candidate to be scheduled for an interview.  As to the identity of the unknown candidate, Wittenmyer says it isn't Sandy Alomar, Mike Maddux, Jose Oquendo, Don Mattingly, Jim Leyland or any of the Cubs' current coaching staff.  
  • NC State left-hander Carlos Rodon headlines the list of the top 30 prospects of the 2014 amateur draft, according to ESPN's Keith Law and Christopher Crawford (Insider subscription required).  Rodon is considered the favorite to be the first overall selection in June and the Astros are already looking at him.

Ryan On Free Agents, Tenders, Pelfrey, Pitching

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Twins GM Terry Ryan discussed a number of topics with 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson on Wednesday, including the following hot stove-related items…

  • The Twins have a protected first round draft pick but Ryan said he'd be comfortable in surrendering the club's second round selection to sign a free agent who had declined a qualifying offer, provided that he felt the free agent was a good fit.
  • Likewise, if the Twins identify a player on the trade market that would upgrade their club and could be had at the right price, Ryan would be open to dealing prospects to make a big splash like the Royals did last offseason to acquire James Shields.  "If you find some of that pitching, it makes you look a lot better in a hurry. So, you'd have to give it some consideration. But it'd have to make a lot of sense. No doubt," Ryan said.
  • Ryan has "flexibility with payroll" and isn't afraid to spend on a player his front office thinks is the right guy.  "We have people who put their neck out and are committed to whoever the player is or the pitcher is, you move forward. If it costs you some money, we go to where we're comfortable," Ryan said.
  • Trevor Plouffe will be tendered a contract, Ryan confirmed.  He declined to comment on Anthony Swarzak or Brian Duensing (both of whom are also eligible for arbitration), but Wolfson reports that "league sources are convinced" that both pitchers will be tendered contracts.
  • There is "probably not" any chance of the Twins re-signing Mike Pelfrey before he hits the free agent market, as Ryan suggested Pelfrey and agent Scott Boras will want to test the market.  Pelfrey returned from Tommy John surgery in 2012 to throw 152 2/3 innings for the Twins last season and he posted a 5.19 ERA that peripherals stats indicated should've been lower.  Pelfrey has said he would be interested in returning to Minnesota and MLBTR's Steve Adams suggests Pelfrey could be had on another one-year contract.

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