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Archives for September 2015

Submit Your Questions For The MLBTR Mailbag

By Steve Adams | September 7, 2015 at 11:34am CDT

We’ve revived the MLBTR Mailbag feature over the past couple of weeks, and it’ll be running every Monday from now on. Last week, the topics discussed included Houston’s first base situation, the Cardinals’ 2016 rotation, Dexter Fowler/free agency/the qualifying offer and Ian Desmond’s free agent stock. Later this afternoon, we’ll tackle another handful of questions.

If you have any questions you’d like to see addressed, you can email them here: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. Feel free to send emails throughout the week, of course, but also be mindful of the fact that we receive a sizable number of questions and cannot get to all of them. You can always ask other questions in the weekly live chat every Tuesday afternoon.

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MLBTR Mailbag

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Matt Garza Removed From Brewers’ Rotation

By Steve Adams | September 7, 2015 at 10:07am CDT

The Brewers informed right-hander Matt Garza that they’ve removed him from the rotation this weekend, writes Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Garza, according to Rosiak, “was livid” when informed of the move.

“It’s not my decision,” said Garza. “I didn’t get much say. It’s completely taken out of my hands. That’s it. I didn’t have any say at all. It is what it is. It’s just (expletive).”

While Garza’s numbers certainly aren’t in line with his career norms — the veteran has a 5.63 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 148 2/3 innings — he seemingly wanted the opportunity to sort out his issues and end the season on a high note. “I’ve played with guys who have gone through similar-type situations, just a rough year, and never once have I seen a guy shut down,” said Garza, adding that he has asked agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports to contact the front office and express his displeasure with the decision.

Via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, Garza continued: “We have an acting GM, and in three to four months, I’ll be introducing myself to a new one. That’s all I’ve got. For the last nine seasons, I’ve had a mid-3.00 [ERA], and I have one off year. It is what it is.” (Full video of Garza’s interview can be seen here, courtesy of MLB.com.) Garza did accept responsibility for the way he pitched and offered no excuses for his performance, stating, “It’s all on me. I’m the one who makes the pitches.”

Garza was given the option to pitch out of the bullpen for the rest of the season, GM Doug Melvin told Rosiak, but unlike teammate Kyle Lohse, he declined to take that opportunity. Summer trade acquisition Zach Davies has already joined the rotation (following Taylor Jungmann’s addition earlier this year), and the Brewers will use Garza’s spot to look at other future options as well. Ariel Pena is one option to get a look. Manager Craig Counsell did tell reporters that Garza “is going to be a member of the rotation in 2016.”

As McCalvy notes, though, there could potentially be financial ramifications of the decision for Garza. The right-hander is slated to earn $12.5MM in each of the next two seasons, but his contract contains a vesting option for the 2018 season that will vest at $13MM if Garza makes 110 starts from 2014-17 and finishes the 2017 healthy with more than 115 innings thrown. As it stands right now, he’s on pace to finish with 106 starts over the initial four years of his contract, making the three to four lost starts potentially significant. If the option does not vest at $13MM, it shrinks substantially to a $5MM club option.

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Milwaukee Brewers Matt Garza

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AL Central Notes: Sano, Cueto, Indians

By Steve Adams | September 7, 2015 at 9:04am CDT

Miguel Sano’s debut with the Twins has beeen nothing short of outstanding, and in light of that success, 1500 ESPN’s Derek Wetmore reexamines Sano’s highly publicized signing with the Twins as an international free agent back in 2009. Sano, whose signing is chronicled in the 2011 documentary Ballplayer: Pelotero, signed with the Twins for $3.15MM six years ago. The Pirates were said to have made an offer of $2.6MM at the time, and Wetmore spoke to a person involved in the negotiations that said the Yankees made an offer in the $3MM range as well. Mutual respect between the Twins and agent Rob Plummer played a large role in Sano’s eventual decision, Wetmore writes, and VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff gave longtime Twins international scout Fred Guerrero quite a bit of credit as well when speaking to Wetmore about the signing. The 2009 international class has a chance to be one of the best — if not the best — in Twins history, as Minnesota not only landed Sano, but Top 100 prospect Jorge Polanco ($775K) and likely Top 100 prospect Max Kepler ($800K) as well.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • Johnny Cueto’s struggles with the Royals are cause for concern among fans, but manager Ned Yost expressed confidence that he can turn it around following a tough loss yesterday, writes Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. Cueto, who has a 4.86 ERA in eight starts with the Royals and has yielded 21 runs over his past 20 innings, is believed by the team to be experiencing mechanical issues — specifically his shoulder flying open. However, Yost and Cueto didn’t feel that was the issue on Sunday, and the right-hander plans to spend extra time watching video to pinpoint the source of his struggles. Cueto was acquired to be the team’s postseason ace, writes ESPN’s Christina Kahrl, but prolonged struggles could lead to Yordano Ventura taking over as the team’s top arm. Kahrl dives into some of the numbers behind Cueto’s recent troubles, noting that his velocity remains sound, but he’s seeing less break on his slider, which could be causing problems.
  • Despite the departure of president Mark Shapiro, Indians fans shouldn’t expect to see a dramatic change in the club’s philosophy or approach to free agency, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer in his latest mailbag piece. Those who had reported to Shapiro will now instead report to owner Paul Dolan, and Dolan’s influence will still of course be strong. Signing players such as Chris Davis won’t be happening this winter, Hoynes says confidently, and he doesn’t expect to see top prospects such as Clint Frazier or or Bradley Zimmer traded in order to provide immediate offensive upgrades, either.
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Cleveland Guardians Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Bradley Zimmer Chris Davis Clint Frazier Miguel Sano

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NL Central Notes: Lackey, Arrieta, Burnett, DelPiano

By Mark Polishuk | September 6, 2015 at 11:27pm CDT

John Lackey intends to pitch “for a couple of more years” after getting clearance from his family, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets.  Though Lackey turns 37 in October, he’ll still be in line for a multi-year deal in free agency this winter given how well he’s pitched over the last three seasons.  Lackey has expressed an interest in remaining in the NL and ideally continuing to pitch for the Cardinals, who could be interested on a short-term deal.

  • Jake Arrieta is represented by Scott Boras but that doesn’t mean the righty is destined to leave the Cubs when he hits free agency, ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers writes.  Boras himself notes in the piece that he has had several high-profile clients who signed extensions with teams, while Arrieta said he has enjoyed his time in Chicago.  “I came over to this organization and was embraced by everybody and they made me feel extremely welcome and the comfort level was there from the get-go.  It was like a seamless transition,” Arrieta said.
  • It seems like A.J. Burnett will return to the Pirates rotation perhaps as early as Wednesday against the Reds.  GM Neal Huntington didn’t confirm any timeline with reporters (including Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review), though “we do have (a plan); we just need to have some conversations with those who are impacted by it.  Those will take place over the next day or so.”  Burnett has been sidelined for over a month recovering from a flexor strain in his throwing elbow but threw a simulated game on Friday and a bullpen session Sunday.
  • Marc DelPiano is leaving his position as a special assistant to Pirates GM Neal Huntington to take a senior vice-president role with the Marlins, ESPN’s Keith Law reports (Twitter link).  DelPiano has been with Pittsburgh since 2008, the latest stop in a 25-year career as a scout, coach and front office member with several different teams.  DelPiano previously worked with the Marlins in various capacities from 2000-05, including serving as their director of player development during the Marlins’ 2003 World Series season.
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Chicago Cubs Miami Marlins Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals A.J. Burnett Jake Arrieta John Lackey

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NL West Notes: Johnson, Rockies, Anderson

By Mark Polishuk | September 6, 2015 at 10:32pm CDT

After Josh Johnson ended a Friday rehab start after four pitches due to elbow discomfort, the Padres confirmed that they’ve shut Johnson down for the rest of the season, assistant GM Fred Uhlman Jr. told reporters (including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune).  Johnson will meet with Dr. James Andrews on Tuesday for further evaluation.  The right-hander is trying to return from his second Tommy John surgery, and Friday’s abbreviated start marked the first competitive pitches Johnson has thrown since August 2013.  Here’s some more from around the NL West…

  • Rockies GM Jeff Bridich tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that despite Carlos Gonzalez’s red-hot bat, there has been only “a little uptake on calls” from teams interested in acquiring the outfielder.  Suitors may be more eager in pursuing Gonzalez this winter now that he’s stayed healthy and kept hitting, though Bridich notes that the Rox weren’t and aren’t actively shopping Gonzalez.  “It wasn’t like we were doing a full-court press internally to make the trade. We treated him like everyone else on the team,” Bridich said.  “We would think about it and have a discussion when it was warranted. It wasn’t like it was some huge orchestrated effort on our part. And, with the pedigree of CarGo, it can be tough to find dance partners in a trade.”  For another interview with Bridich, check out his recent appearance with Jeff Todd on the MLBTR Podcast.
  • In another piece from Saunders, he thinks the Rockies will try to trade Jose Reyes this winter in order to create a spot for shortstop prospect Trevor Story.  Reyes is owed $44MM through 2017, plus his contract has a $22MM club option for 2018 that can be bought out for $4MM.  Colorado is prepared to eat a major piece of Reyes’ remaining salary to make a deal happen, Saunders believes.
  • Brett Anderson left today’s start in the sixth inning after a trainer’s visit to the mound, yet the injury-plagued southpaw told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) that he only suffered a cramped calf and doesn’t expect to miss any time.  Anderson has stayed healthy and effective for the Dodgers this season, posting a 3.36 ERA, 5.92 K/9 and 66.7% grounder rate over 158 innings.  Just today, as noted as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Anderson added his second $300K bonus of the year for passing an innings-pitched threshold.  He seems like a solid bet to collect a huge chunk of the other $3.4MM still available in total incentives, as per his one-year, $10MM contract.
  • Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle predicts (via Twitter) Tim Lincecum will return to the Giants on a minor league deal for 2016.  Lincecum recently underwent season-ending hip surgery and since he’ll have trouble finding a Major League contract, it makes sense that he could return to familiar surroundings, especially since Bruce Bochy and CEO Larry Baer both seem open to the idea.
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Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Brett Anderson Carlos Gonzalez Jose Reyes Josh Johnson Tim Lincecum

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Marco Estrada

By Mark Polishuk | September 6, 2015 at 9:40pm CDT

It took only a month for the Blue Jays to elevate Marco Estrada from rotation depth to full-time starter.  After Daniel Norris’ early struggles got him demoted in early May, Estrada stepped into the open rotation spot and has quietly delivered some quality numbers.  Estrada has a 3.18 ERA, 6.78 K/9, 2.93 K/BB rate over 147 1/3 innings, highlighted by no-hit bids in consecutive June starts.  This solid season couldn’t have come at a better time for Estrada as he prepares to hit the open market this winter.

It was a little under 14 months ago that Estrada was losing a starting job, as the Brewers demoted him to the bullpen after he posted a 4.96 ERA and a whopping 27 home runs over his first 107 innings of the 2014 season.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes saw Estrada as a borderline non-tender candidate last winter, but the Jays agreed to a one-year, $3.9MM deal after acquiring him from Milwaukee in exchange for Adam Lind.  Despite moving to a hitter-friendly AL ballpark in the wake of a season that saw him devastated by the long ball, Estrada has posted a career-low 8.1% homer rate in 2015, well below his 12.1% mark he posted from 2008-14.

Marco EstradaAdvanced metrics, however, don’t paint nearly as flattering a picture of Estrada’s performance this season.  The low strikeout rate, only a 32.2% grounder rate, a .225 BABIP and 77% strand rate all add up to an unimpressive trio of ERA indicators — 4.28 FIP, 4.89 xFIP, 4.58 SIERA.  Estrada’s K/9 has steadily dropped in each of the last four seasons and his current 6.78 mark would be the lowest of his career.

Estrada’s success might go beyond just some batted-ball luck.  For starters, he is widely regarded as possessing one of the game’s best changeups.  Estrada throws his signature pitch 28.5% of the time and at an average speed (78.7 mph) over 10 mph slower than his 89.3 mph fastball, an unusually large velocity drop that creates all sorts of difficulty for batters.  Since the start of the 2011 season, Estrada has the lowest line drive rate (18.1%) of any pitcher in baseball with at least 600 innings pitched, so his low BABIP number both this season and over his career (.276 prior to 2015) can partially be explained by the fact that hitters simply have trouble making solid contact with Estrada’s arsenal.

It’s worth noting that, going into 2014, Estrada was considered by some to be a possible breakout star following two strong seasons for Milwaukee.  Estrada’s agents at TWC Sports will likely point to 2014 as the outlier of the righty’s four most recent seasons due to the spike in home runs.  If Estrada can hold his own (2014 excepted) in the likes of Miller Park and Rogers Centre, it could be argued that he could be even more effective in a less-notorious hitters’ park given how he limits hard contact.

This winter’s free agent class is heavy with top- and front-of-the-rotation arms, and Estrada’s market will further diminish due to the fact that he turns 33 in July 2016.  A three-year contract is probably stretching it for a pitcher that old, though it could be argued that Estrada has the type of pitching style that will age well.

I can see Estrada landing a two-year deal in the $20MM range, perhaps with an option added.  It’s hard to find comparable contracts given Estrada’s somewhat unique career history, though he could be seen as something of a blend of Carlos Villanueva (a swingman) and Scott Feldman (a non-strikeout pitcher coming to free agency fairly late), with Estrada falling between Villanueva and Feldman in terms of being an established starter.  Villanueva signed a two-year, $10MM free agent deal with the Cubs after the 2012 season and Feldman inked a three-year, $30MM deal with the Astros after 2013, so a two-year/$20MM projection for Estrada splits that difference exactly.

It’s possible Toronto could look to bring him back since David Price may leave in free agency and Mark Buehrle may retire, though the team hopes to have a healthy Marcus Stroman and a more seasoned Aaron Sanchez in the 2016 rotation.  It’s probably unlikely the Jays make Estrada a qualifying offer since they wouldn’t be keen on paying him roughly $15.7-$16MM on a one-year deal if he accepts.  While Estrada is probably looking for multi-year security for his first dip into free agency, it’s not out of the question that he would be the first player to accept a qualifying offer if the Blue Jays did offer one.  If Estrada and his agents felt having draft pick compensation attached would severely harm his market (a likely scenario), he could take the QO, still score a nice one-year payday and stay in a familiar situation with a strong lineup and defense.

Presuming he doesn’t have the qualifying offer hanging over him, Estrada could get a lot of interest as an under-the-radar choice for a team that misses out on the big names in the first or second tier of free agent arms.  His price tag should be reasonable enough that small or mid-market teams could get into the mix, as well as larger-market teams looking for help at the back of their rotations.

Photo courtesy of Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images

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Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals Toronto Blue Jays Marco Estrada

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NL East Links: Harvey, Ross, Marlins

By Mark Polishuk | September 6, 2015 at 7:50pm CDT

In a self-penned piece for The Players’ Tribune, Matt Harvey tried to settle the innings-limit controversy of the last few days by firmly stating that he intends to pitch in the postseason:

“As an athlete, when your surgeon explains to you the risks of exceeding a certain number of innings, it can be alarming. You listen. I love to play baseball and I love winning even more. I would not give that up for anything. I also know I want to be able to play and win for a long time. But there has never been a doubt in my mind: I will pitch in the playoffs. I will be healthy, active and ready to go.

I am communicating with my agent, my doctor, Sandy [Alderson] and the entire Mets organization. I can assure everyone that we’re all on the same page.

Together, we are coming up with a plan to reach an innings limit during the season. It will be a compromise between the doctors and the Mets organization to get me, and the team, to where we need to be for our postseason run.”

Here’s some more from around the NL East…

  • In other innings-limit news, Nationals manager Matt Williams told reporters (including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post) that the team will consider shutting rookie right-hander Joe Ross down for the season.  Ross lasted just 4 1/3 innings in today’s start and both he and Williams admitted that fatigue may have played a role.  Ross has thrown 149 2/3 innings between the majors and minors this season, well beyond his previous professional season high of 122 1/3 IP in 2013.
  • Several Marlins players have expressed displeasure about team management to friends and within the clubhouse, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.  The Marlins’ decision to trade veterans for prospects, GM-turned-manager Dan Jennings’ in-game decisions and the overall belief that Miami “still prioritizes saving money over winning” are three of the players’ main issues.
  • Also from Jackson, he notes that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has been listening to assistant GM Mike Berger, director of pro scouting Jeff McAvoy and others more than he’s been listening to Jennings.  There has been a lot of speculation about what changes are coming to Miami’s baseball operations crew, including whether Jennings will return as GM, take another front office role or perhaps part ways with the team altogether.
  • A.J. Pierzynski has enjoyed playing for the Braves and hopes to return in 2016, he tells MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.  The veteran catcher will be a free agent this winter, and while Atlanta has Christian Bethancourt as its prospective catcher of the future, there have been signs that the club isn’t satisfied with Bethancourt’s development.  There were reports last month that the Braves were also interested in bringing Pierzynski back for another season.  Pierzynski signed a one-year, $2MM deal with Atlanta last winter and has already earned an extra $400K via playing-time bonuses, Bowman notes.
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Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins New York Mets Washington Nationals A.J. Pierzynski Dan Jennings Joe Ross Matt Harvey

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Minor MLB Transactions: 9/6/15

By Mark Polishuk | September 6, 2015 at 6:47pm CDT

Here are the latest minor moves from around baseball, with the newest transactions at the top of the post…

  • Astros right-hander Jake Buchanan has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports (via Twitter).  Houston designated Buchanan for assignment earlier this week.  Buchanan has allowed two runs in nine relief innings for the Astros this season, and he has a 4.06 ERA, 5.1 K/9 and 1.56 K/BB over 44 1/3 career frames.
  • Check out the MLB Trade Rumors DFA Tracker to keep up on the status of several players awaiting their next assignments.
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Houston Astros Transactions

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Cafardo’s Latest: Greinke, O’s, Renteria, BoSox

By Mark Polishuk | September 6, 2015 at 6:19pm CDT

Here’s the latest from The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo in the newest edition of his Sunday notes column…

  • Zack Greinke may not find anything longer than a five-year contract this winter, according to a Major League source.  Greinke turns 32 in October, so it’s understandable that teams would be wary about committing big money to a pitcher into his age-37 season, despite Greinke’s current outstanding numbers.  It’s not as if Greinke will be suffering for money if he takes the expected step of opting out of his Dodgers contract, as an NL general manager calls a five-year, $150MM deal as “a good starting point.”  That GM also predicts Greinke will ultimately remain with the Dodgers since they can afford his salary demands.
  • “Some believe there may be a breaking point between” Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter, though Cafardo notes it is “probably too early to call this one” a potential front office change in the making for the Orioles.  Last week, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported on some bad feelings within Baltimore’s front office, stemming from owner Peter Angelos’ refusal to let Duquette pursue the Blue Jays president’s job without compensation.
  • Former Cubs manager Rick Renteria could re-emerge as a managerial candidate this winter, with Cafardo speculating that the Marlins or Tigers could be fits.  Cafardo notes that Renteria was the finalist for the Tigers job before they hired Brad Ausmus, and that position could be open again if Ausmus is fired in the wake of Detroit’s disappointing season.
  • Joe Kelly has pitched very well over the last month but he may not have a spot in the Red Sox rotation next year, leading Cafardo to suggest that Kelly be converted into a closer if Koji Uehara can’t recover from his fractured wrist.  Cafardo sees the 2016 Boston rotation as Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Wade Miley and a yet-to-be-acquired ace, though I’d argue that Miley’s spot is far from set in stone.  Plans could yet shift if the Sox move a starter in a trade, and Cafardo hears from an AL GM that Miley and Buchholz “would have value” if Boston shopped either starter.  (Presumably the Sox wouldn’t move a promising and controllable arm like Rodriguez, and Porcello’s big contract greatly limits his trade value.)
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers Joe Kelly Zack Greinke

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AL West Notes: Zych, Zito, A’s, Astros

By Mark Polishuk | September 6, 2015 at 4:57pm CDT

Mariners right-hander Tony Zych made his Major League debut on Friday night and gained an unusual distinction in the process.  Of the thousands of players who have appeared in an MLB game, Zych is now alphabetically last on the list, replacing past Dutch Zwilling (who last played in 1916).  “Breaking a record is pretty cool. I really didn’t have to do much for that one,” Zych tells Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune.  As Dutton notes, the Mariners have also previously employed the first player alphabetically in baseball history (David Aardsma) and the first player with a hyphenated name (Ryan Rowland-Smith).  Here’s more from around the AL West…

  • Barry Zito has heard from the Athletics that he won’t be called up this month, the veteran southpaw tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Zito last pitched in the majors in 2013 and sat out 2014 before signing a minor league deal with the A’s last February.  He’s posted a 3.48 ERA, 5.9 K/9 and 1.50 K/BB rate over 137 innings this season though he hasn’t pitched in over a month due to shoulder tendinitis.  Zito will complete his recovery throwing program to give himself the option of continuing his career, though this could well be it for the former Cy Young Award winner.
  • Also from Slusser, she notes that a number of scouts were in attendance to specifically watch A’s righty Jesse Chavez in his most recent start.  Chavez is “coveted by many teams for his versatility” and is “unlikely to be in next year’s rotation,” Slusser writes.  Chavez drew some trade buzz prior to this year’s deadline and eligible for free agency after the 2016 season, so it makes sense that the A’s could explore dealing him now with so much interest in his services.
  • The Astros’ run to the top of the AL West has produced only a modest increase in attendance, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle writes.  A number of factors are cited, perhaps chiefly that Houston fans may simply be a bit slow to jump back on the bandwagon since the Astros had been so terrible in recent seasons.  Drellich also looks at some of the ways in which all MLB teams share marketing and ticketing strategies with the rest of the league.
  • Astros closer Luke Gregerson finished his 45th game of the season today, earning him an extra $250K in salary for 2016, as noted by Drellich (Twitter link).  Gregerson has pitched very well in the first year of his three-year, $18.5MM deal with Houston and with the bonus, his 2016 salary now jumps to $6.5MM.  More bonus money is still available, as he’ll earn another $250K at each of the 50-, 55- and 57-finish thresholds.
  • Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times breaks down the pros and cons of four candidates for the Mariners’ GM job.  Of the names listed, Divish thinks former Angels GM Jerry Dipoto could be the favorite, as Dipoto was a finalist for the Seattle job before Jack Zduriencik was hired.
  • Shane Victorino has embraced his platoon role since joining the Angels in the name of helping the club, he tells MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez.  Still, the veteran outfielder says he hopes to return to full-time action next season and is planning to retrain himself to switch-hit after injuries forced him to become a full-time righty bat in 2013.
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Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Oakland Athletics Seattle Mariners Barry Zito Jerry Dipoto Jesse Chavez Luke Gregerson Shane Victorino

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