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Archives for February 2016

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Almora, Bard

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Here’s a look at the NL Central:

  • Carrie Muskat of MLB.com ran down six Cubs prospects to keep an eye on this spring.  Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber made their presence felt in 2015 and there are a handful of youngsters that could make an impact in 2016 for Chicago.  That list includes outfielder Albert Almora, the Cubs’ first round selection in 2012.  Almora has been held back by injuries, but the 21-year-old is now healthy and he’ll open the season at Triple-A Iowa.
  • Daniel Bard believes that he’ll get the fresh start that he needs with the Pirates, as Adam Berry of MLB.com writes.  “What I like about being here is I don’t know anybody. Basically, I’m going to get what I deserve here,” Bard said. “What I do on the field is going to dictate who I’m pitching for and where I’m going, and I’m fine with that.”  Bard, Boston’s first-round pick in the 2006 Draft, dominated from 2009 through 2011.  However, he hasn’t been the same pitcher since.  In that three year stretch, Bard posted a 2.88 ERA in a considerably more hitter-friendly era than today’s game even a few short years later. That 2.88 ERA, when adjusted for the league and Bard’s home of Fenway Park, resulted in a 154 ERA+, indicating that he was 54 percent better than a league-average pitcher. He averaged 9.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in that time to go along with a well-above-average ground-ball rate and a fastball that averaged better than 97 mph.  Bard and the Bucs agreed to a minor league deal back in January.
  • Over the weekend, the A’s acquired outfielder Khris Davis from the Brewers in exchange for prospects Jacob Nottingham and Bubba Derby.  Click here to check out some reactions to the deal and the impact it could have on Oakland and Milwaukee.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Latest On Marlins, Jose Fernandez

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The Marlins are “under the impression” that Jose Fernandez’s representation will be seeking $30MM per year when the pitcher hits the open market, according to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald.  The Marlins have no intention of meeting that number and, therefore, they have made peace with the fact that they will not retain him past 2018.  Of course, the Marlins could also trade the young hurler before the 2018/19 offseason and get something in return rather than lose him for nothing.

Monetary problems aside, there are also some issues between Fernandez and team management.  For starters, a friend of Fernandez tells Jackson that the pitcher was bothered by the team’s trades last summer.  The Marlins made a number of deals in July, including trades that shipped out notables like Sam Dyson, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, Michael Morse, and Steve Cishek.

Fernandez was also bothered by the removal of pitching coach Chuck Hernandez, who has since been replaced by Juan Nieves, according to the friend.  On the whole, the source close to Fernandez contends that ex-Marlins player Jeff Baker soured Fernandez – and other players – on the Marlins’ front office.

A Fernandez trade could bring back a significant haul of prospects for the Marlins, but the Wei-Yin Chen signing this winter would indicate that the Marlins are hoping to contend in the immediate future.  Chen’s five-year, $80MM deal includes an opt-out after two seasons, giving the Marlins a strong rotation arm to pair with Fernandez for the next two years at least.  Then again, a Fernandez trade could bring back a mix of prospects and MLB-ready talent, so the Marlins wouldn’t necessarily be signing up for a rebuild if they moved him.

Fernandez won NL Rookie of the Year in 2013 when he pitched to a 2.19 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 across 28 starts. Since then, Fernandez has made a combined 19 big league starts, pitching to a 2.71 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 between 2014 and 2015.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Blair, Blue Jays, Yankees

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Here’s our weekly look around the baseball blogosphere:

Please send submissions to Zach Links at ZachBBWI@gmail.com

Rays Notes: Cobb, Whitley, Rotation, Outfield, Loney

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Rays pitcher Alex Cobb is targeting a late July return from Tommy John surgery, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Cobb went under the knife in mid-May of last season. This reported time table puts him on a typical 14 to 15 month pace. Cobb last pitched in 2014 when he posted a 2.87 ERA with 8.06 K/9, 2.54 BB/9 and a 56 percent ground ball rate.

  • Waiver claim Chase Whitley is on a similar return schedule to Cobb. Whitley’s surgery came a few days after Cobb so it’s possible he won’t be ready until early August. While Cobb has a borderline ace ceiling, Whitley has performed more like a swingman. In 95 career innings, he has a 5.02 ERA with 7.20 K/9 and 2.18 BB/9. Interestingly, his peripherals suggest the potential for a sub-4.00 ERA.
  • While they recover, the rotation is a little thin if injuries strike. The team is already relying upon Matt Moore and Drew Smyly – both of whom have missed significant time in recent seasons. Matt Andriese is one of the main depth options with top prospect Blake Snell knocking on the door.
  • Topkin also runs through the position battles at other positions. Outfield is a spot to watch for our readers. The club is particularly deep. Trade acquisition Corey Dickerson is expected to be the primary designated hitter with Desmond Jennings in left, Kevin Kiermaier in center, Steven Souza in right, and Brandon Guyer in a reserve role. Injuries or a trade opportunity could quickly mutate the plans.
  • The Rays problems are of the “good” variety, Topkin writes in a separate piece. Most of the roster is crowded with the exception of the bullpen where options can emerge unexpectedly. With their depth, future transactions in the outfield and at first base are possible. The team has been shopping James Loney for awhile now. He’s owed $8MM for this season.

New York Notes: ARod, Tex, Alderson, Wright

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In a list of 20 rookies to watch this season, Mets pitcher Steven Matz ranked fifth, writes Richard Justice of MLB.com. Matz is set to spend the season in the rotation, although the club has talked about having a sixth starter help to keep the young pitchers fresh. Across town, outfield prospect Aaron Judge is eighth on Justice’s list. He expects injuries to old vets to open an opportunity. Personally, I’m not entirely convinced Judge is major league ready after he hit .224/.308/.373 in 228 Triple-A plate appearances. The club has decent outfield depth too.

  • Speaking of potential Yankees injuries, fragility may define the 2016 Bombers, writes George A. King III of the NY Post. The rotation looks solid but thin. Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, and even Nathan Eovaldi have all had their run-ins with the trainer. Luis Severino is young and therefore uncertain (pitching is always uncertain). Among the position players, Greg Bird is already out for the year. Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, and Mark Teixeira are all safe bets to need some time on the shelf.
  • Rodriguez and Teixeira may be key players in 2016, suggests Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Their ability to once again tap into the fountain of youth is one of Feinsand’s five questions for the 2016 campaign. He also wonders if Aroldis Chapman will face suspension, if Sabathia’s new knee brace can help him rebound, and if the rest of the rotation can stay healthy.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson continues to undergo chemotherapy for an undisclosed cancer, writes Adam Rubin of ESPN. He received the diagnosis shortly after the club clinched the NL East last season, giving the playoffs a bittersweet tinge. It has not affected his job.
  • Alderson figures David Wright should play a maximum of 130 games next season, writes Rubin. The club is keen to avoid overtaxing his back. He’ll rest against tough right-handed pitchers with Wilmer Flores likely to enter the lineup.
  • Alderson also answered a wide range of questions for Steve Serby of the NY Post. He touched upon his illness, virtually every position on the roster, and the farm system. When asked about the starting rotation, Alderson said, “you go that deep into the playoffs, there’s gonna be kind of a surcharge on their innings. So we’re gonna be careful with them. It doesn’t mean that we’re gonna manage their innings necessarily.“

Red Sox Notes: Vazquez, Swihart, Bullpen

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Here’s the latest out of Boston as the club prepares for what should be a mostly predictable Spring Training:

  • Christian Vazquez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. He went under the knife last April and will have to prove he can regularly catch to make the roster. Pitchers generally take 14 to 15 months to recover from the surgery while position players can pursue an accelerated timeline. Not many catchers are available for comparison. Matt Wieters is a recent example. He went under the knife in mid-June 2014 and returned to regular action in early-June 2015. If Vazquez follows the same timeline, he could be ready just in time for the regular season.
  • If Vazquez is healthy, the Red Sox have a roster crunch behind the dish, per Speier. Veteran Ryan Hanigan and touted youngster Blake Swihart are also set to compete for playing time. Both Vazquez and Swihart have club options, but they’re also viewed as the future of the franchise. If they look sharp during the spring, Hanigan could be shopped on the trade market. More likely, Vazquez will be given extra time to recover from injury or develop his bat. The club could also opt to have Swihart work on his defense.
  • Speier also looks at how the team’s pitchers performed with each catcher. In small samples, Eduardo Rodriguez was best with Swihart. Rick Porcello had similar numbers with Swihart and Hanigan. Clay Buchholz was much better with Vazquez as was Joe Kelly. All in all, the analysis is interesting but thoroughly inconclusive.
  • The Red Sox know the plan for the late innings, write Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Junichi Tazawa, Carson Smith, and Koji Uehara will form the bridge to Craig Kimbrel. The other three bullpen jobs are open to competition. The favorite for the long relief role is Roenis Elias. He’s had modest success as a major league starter in Seattle. Knuckleballer Steven Wright is also in the picture, and he’s out of club options. The club reportedly liked Robbie Ross’ performance late last season, but he does have options. Bradford thinks Tommy Layne (out of options), is the favorite for a LOOGY role. The club is reportedly on the lookout for other lefty specialists too. Bradford also highlights a few dark horse candidates to track.

Reactions To The Khris Davis Trade

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The Athletics acquired outfielder Khris Davis  from the Brewers yesterday for prospects Jacob Nottingham and Bubba Derby. The A’s also designated pitcher Sean Nolin in a related move. Here is a sampling of the reactions to and effects of the deal.

  • Brewers GM David Stearns doesn’t expect to make any deals between now and the first day of Spring Training, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Pitchers and catchers report to camp next Sunday. In my opinion, the club does seem to have an opportunity to buy low on a free agent outfielder if they would rather give recent acquisition Rymer Liriano more competition than Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Keon Broxton.
  • In another tweet, Haudricourt relays that the acquisition of Nottingham has no direct effect on Jonathan Lucroy’s status with the team. Nottingham had a successful campaign in High-A last season, but he’s at least one year away from reaching the majors. Given the direction of the Brewers’ rebuild, Lucroy seems to destined to find a new home as soon as he proves himself healthy and effective.
  • The trade made sense in a formulaic way, writes Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs. The A’s had a role for an outfielder while the Brewers are busy acquiring prospects and players with upside. Sullivan provides some background about Davis, noting his ability to slug without steep platoon splits. He ranked in the top five percent of hitters in bat exit velocity on liners and fly balls. In other words, when he makes contact, it’s hard. That could help him to fit into spacious O.Co Coliseum.
  • ESPN’s Christina Kahrl also likes the trade for both teams. As she notes, affordable power hitters are few and far between, making this a rare opportunity for Oakland. Davis is under club control for four more seasons and has yet to reach arbitration. The Brewers farm system was recently rated fifth by ESPN’s Keith Law prior to the trade. The club is poised to rebound quickly from their tear down. They may possibly dodge the scariest years of the new Cubs juggernaut in the process.
  • Nottingham is an offense first catcher, but he’s still one of the best catching prospects, says Jim Callis of MLB.com (video). His power and hitting ability could potentially play at another position if he doesn’t stick behind the dish. Meanwhile, Derby is described as a undersized pitcher who could start or convert into a setup role.

Orioles Notes: McIlvaine, Kim, Gallardo, Fowler

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The Orioles have officially announced the hiring of Joe McIlvaine as special assistant to Executive VP Dan Duquette. McIlvaine, a former player, was the Padres GM from 1991 through mid-1993. He then transitioned to the Mets GM post from August 1993 through 1997. Since then, he has experience as a special assistant with the Twins and Mariners.

Here’s more out of Baltimore:

  • Hyun-soo Kim is projected to be a roughly league average player, writes Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. FanGraphs’ Steamer projection system foresees a .273/.338/.420 batting line with 18 home runs. Duquette had praise for Kim, citing his high average and penchant to walk more than he strikes out. Meanwhile, manager Buck Showalter complimented Kim’s “big personality.” He believes he’ll be a good clubhouse fit despite the language barrier. The team is still in the market for an outfielder, but Kim is likely to start in either left or right field. His experience in the KBO came in left field.
  • A decision to sign Yovani Gallardo and/or Dexter Fowler could have far reaching repercussions, writes Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. Both players rejected a qualifying offer and thus will cost a draft pick to sign. The O’s farm system is considered to be lagging behind many others. Forgoing their top one or two picks could hamstring future rebuilding efforts. As Schmuck writes, this is the club’s best opportunity to upgrade the roster – especially if the current unit fails to reach the postseason. Baltimore has an uphill battle in the always tough AL East where none of their rivals will offer an easy contest.

Tony Clark On Qualifying Offers, Draft, Luxury Tax

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Here’s the latest from MLBPA head Tony Clark, who gave an interview to the Associated Press last week in which he articulated his positions on a number of issues that could affect the next round of CBA negotiations once the current CBA expires in December. Here are the highlights.

  • Clark expressed frustration that top players are still on the free agent market in February. (Presumably, Clark is referring to players like Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo, who remain on the market after rejecting qualifying offers months ago. “I think it’s disappointing when there are as many talented players still without a home,” he said. “I don’t think it’s in anyone’s best interest to be in a world where very talented players are at home for whatever reason they are there. It will likely be a part of the conversation in bargaining.”
  • Clark also said he might be in favor of some sort of draft lottery system. As opposed to the current system, which awards draft picks merely on reverse order of record, a lottery system might somewhat disincentivize the kind of so-called “tanking” seen in recent years from teams like the Astros (who got three straight No. 1 overall picks from 2012 through 2014) and Braves. “It will be beneficial to look at that, and not look at it in a vacuum but appreciate whatever it is that we attempt to negotiate there or propose there, that it ties into the other moving pieces and doesn’t create an imbalance,” Clark said.
  • There are “very significant issues” with the idea of an international draft, Clark said, although he expects the idea will come up in CBA negotiations. (This isn’t the first time Clark has expressed doubt about the possibility of an international draft.)
  • Unsurprisingly, Clark believes the luxury tax threshold should rise. The figure remains at $189MM, and its growth has not kept pace with industry revenue. The threshold has arguably constrained player salaries, as it has likely played a role in preventing some traditional big spenders (such as the Angels) from signing key free agents this offseason.

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