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Archives for February 2016

Cafardo On Managers, Shields, Lee, Otani

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Here’s the latest from the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo:

  • Cafardo asked a variety of MLB players, managers, coaches and front office personnel who the best managers in the game were and compiled his annual ranking of the 30 skippers. Topping the list is Joe Maddon of the Cubs, whose sabermetric strategies have “revolutionized” managing much in the way Tony La Russa’s tactics did a generation ago, according to Cafardo. Maddon is followed by Bruce Bochy of the Giants and Buck Showalter of the Orioles.
  • The Padres could potentially wait to trade James Shields until this summer’s deadline, Cafardo writes. While Shields’ first year in San Diego was not terrible, he might have spooked potential suitors with the 33 home runs he allowed last season. If he were to get off to a good start in 2016, that might rebuild his trade value.
  • Chris Lee will be one of the Orioles’ “must-see” pitchers this Spring, Cafardo writes, noting that Lee throws 97 MPH with a good changeup and slider. The Astros traded Lee to the Orioles last May for only a pair of international bonus spots. However good his stuff might be, Lee’s statistics don’t yet indicate that he’s a top prospect — in 145 innings last year, he only struck out 98 batters. It should perhaps be noted, though, that the Orioles promoted him very aggressively, and he was quite young for Double-A by the time he reached that level.
  • Nippon Ham Fighters pitcher Shohei Otani has been training with his team in Arizona, and as we noted yesterday, he’s been generating a lot of buzz. As Cafardo notes, the 22-year-old isn’t likely to be posted anytime soon, although US-based scouts feel he could be a star in the Majors, either as a hitter or a pitcher. “He can do both,” says a scout from the American League. “He’s going to have to make a choice. Either way he’s going to be an All-Star-caliber player as a hitter or pitcher.” With his triple-digit fastball, Otani will likely remain a pitcher.

East Notes: Harper, Marlins, Rays, Montreal

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A reporter recently suggested to Nationals star Bryce Harper that he might eventually be able to get a $400MM contract, to which Harper memorably replied, “Don’t sell me short.” $400MM would, of course, be the largest contract ever. But FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes that Harper might be worth even more. At this point in his career, Harper is similar in value to a young Alex Rodriguez, and A-Rod’s $252MM contract with the Rangers paid him at a rate of about 12 times the MLB average salary at the time. Since then, the average MLB salary has doubled. While there are some slight differences between the two cases (for example, the fact that A-Rod was younger when he signed his deal than Harper will be when he’ll hit free agency following the 2018 season), Cameron argues that the difficulty now in finding good value on the free agent market should help compensate for them. That could make Harper worth something like $40MM-$50MM a year, and given that he’ll have barely turned 26 when he becomes eligible for free agency, his first free agent deal could potentially clear $500MM, or more if it includes deferrals.

  • As has been previously reported, the Marlins continue to look for extra starting pitching depth, and due to a tight budget, they’re focusing on hurlers who might be available on minor-league deals. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro has the latest details on the team’s pitching search. Previous reports had linked the Marlins to Kyle Lohse, Alfredo Simon, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee, and those names continue to be in Miami’s mix — Frisaro notes that when Lincecum and Lee hold workouts, the Marlins plan to attend. Frisaro also mentions 37-year-old Aaron Harang, who at last check had not decided whether or not to play this season. The veteran innings-eater spent 2015 with the Phillies, posting a 4.86 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 172 1/3 innings.
  • There’s an outside-the-box idea circulating in Canada, reports Francois Cardinal from La Presse (link in French) — business interests could buy half of the Rays and have them split their home games between the Tampa area and Montreal. The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin has a summary of the plan. Having the team be based in two cities could potentially allow it to maximize television revenue, as games would be broadcast in both markets. Also, per-game attendance would increase because there would be fewer games in each city. Team-related income would be split between both ownership groups. Of course, Cardinal’s idea is far from reality at this point, and there are practical problems, like where in each city the Rays (who are currently trying to find a new stadium site in Tampa Bay) would play, and (as Topkin notes) whether the players association would approve of the arrangement, given the logistical difficulties it would presumably cause players.

Central Notes: Brewers, Tigers, Mauer

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Former Brewers GM Doug Melvin says he’s sleeping better in the six months since he ceded the team’s GM job to David Stearns, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy writes. Now a senior advisor, Melvin has continued to work in player development with the Brewers, but he’s also taken more time for himself.  “It’s like the difference between a coach and a manager. When you’re a coach, you have your certain responsibilities. You’re available. But when you’re the manager, you feel responsible to 25 players, plus the coaches and the trainers and everybody,” says Melvin. As a GM, he says, “[you feel a total responsibility. Pro scouting, amateur scouting, international scouting, player development, the Major League team — there’s always something to think about.” Here’s more from the Central divisions.

  • Tigers owner Mike Ilitch is the closest thing the game has to a modern-day George Steinbrenner, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. After adding Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann this offseason, the Tigers have four players signed to nine-figure contracts. Of course, the ends of those kinds of contracts can create roster flexibility issues of the sort the Yankees have dealt with in recent years, and Sherman notes that the Tigers already have $122MM committed for the 2018 season for Upton, Zimmermann, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander and Victor Martinez.
  • Twins star Joe Mauer says lingering concussion symptoms caused him to have blurred vision while hitting the past two seasons, Brian Murphy of the Pioneer Press writes. The vision issues were caused by sunlight, Mauer says he will try hitting with sunglasses in an effort to improve his ability to pick up pitches. “If you’re just a little off, you’re fouling off pitches you should be driving into the gap,” says Mauer. “In the big leagues, you don’t get too many more opportunities to see good ones to hit.” Mauer adds that he does not want his concussion issues to be an “excuse” for his performance the last two seasons, in which he’s seen a dramatic decline in offense. (He’s hit .270/348/.376 the last two years, compared to a previous career average of .323/.405/.468.) Mauer is still signed for the next three years at $23MM per season, so he could provide a big long-term boost to the Twins if he were to get back on track.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/13/16

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Here are today’s minor moves from around the game:

  • The Diamondbacks have outrighted lefty Will Locante, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets. They designated Locante for assignment last week after he posted a 5.79 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 7.3 BB/9 in 42 rough innings of relief for Double-A Mobile last year.
  • The Indians have announced that they’ve signed 34-year-old catcher Guillermo Quiroz to a minor-league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. The light-hitting Quiroz has played parts of ten seasons in the Majors, but in the 2015 regular season he only appeared with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate in Sacramento, where he hit .247/.303/.292 in 99 plate appearances.
  • The Angels have signed catcher Lou Marson and righties Josh Zeid and Cody Satterwhite to minor-league deals, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy tweets. Marson, the former Indians backup, has played sparingly in the last several seasons due to injury. He has a lifetime .219/.309/.299 line in parts of six big-league seasons. The 28-year-old Zeid is perhaps best known as one of the pieces the Phillies sent the Astros in the 2011 Hunter Pence deal. He spent the 2015 season in the Tigers’ Triple-A bullpen, posting a 4.46 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9. The 29-year-old Satterwhite pitched last season in a tough pitching environment at Triple-A Las Vegas, posting a 4.38 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 72 innings of relief.
  • The Blue Jays have re-signed lefty reliever Colt Hynes to a minor-league deal, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets. Hynes pitched in five games for the Jays last season. He also pitched 47 1/3 innings combined at Double-A and Triple-A, posting a 3.47 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.

Prospect Notes: Montas, Rankings, Moncada, Angels

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Dodgers pitcher Frankie Montas is out for two to four months after having rib surgery, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Montas was a key to the Dodgers’ end of the seven-player swap that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox and prospects to the Dodgers and Reds. Now, it appears Montas will miss a portion of the season. Last year, Montas posted a 2.97 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 112 innings with Double-A Birmingham, also pitching 15 innings in his first exposure to the Majors. Here are more notes on prospects.

  • It’s prospect list season, and this week Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (1-50, 51-100; subscription required and recommended) published lists of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Both lists feature the Dodgers’ Corey Seager and the Twins’ Byron Buxton at the top, and there’s plenty more agreement in the top ten, with Lucas Giolito (Nationals), Julio Urias (Dodgers), J.P. Crawford (Phillies), Alex Reyes (Cardinals) and Orlando Arcia (Brewers) all figuring in both top tens. From there, though, there’s plenty of divergence — for example, BA rates Yoan Moncada of the Red Sox the third-best prospect in baseball, whereas Law ranks him at No. 17, noting that Moncada might not have the power that was expected of him when the Red Sox signed him last year. Law still projects Moncada will be an above-average everyday player, however. Law is more bullish on another top Red Sox prospect, Rafael Devers, who he says could produce 30 to 35 home runs per season while playing solid defense at third base.
  • Both BA and Law (again, Insider only) also recently published rankings of the best farm systems by organization. The Braves, Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, Rangers, Rockies, Twins, Red Sox and Pirates all fare well on both lists, and the Braves, Dodgers and Twins have seven players apiece in Law’s top 100. Both BA’s and Law’s rankings feature the same bottom five — the Tigers, Orioles, Mariners, Marlins and Angels. Law says the Angels have “by far the worst system I’ve ever seen,” noting that the Angels have no one who even came close to placing in his top 100.

Week In Review: 2/7/16 – 2/12/16

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Here’s a look back at the past week at MLBTR.

Key Moves

Arbitration

Extensions

Signings / Re-signings

Trades

Claimed

Designated For Assignment

Key Minor League Signings

International Notes: Otani, Padres, Ona, Morejon, Lazarito, Cards

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22-year-old righty Shohei Otani, a standout in Japan’s NPB, has been drawing plenty of attention lately as his Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters train in Arizona. It’s not hard to see why, as the power righty is coming off of a season in which he put up a 2.24 ERA over 160 2/3 innings, with 11.0 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. Otani, who is also a productive hitter, says he’s always dreamed of playing in the majors, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom writes. But it’s not yet clear when that chance will arise. As Eric Longenhagen explains for ESPN.com, his current team has little incentive to post him now, given that it is capped at $20MM regardless of when it does so. But he does add that some believe the Fighters would allow him to depart if a request was made. If and when that occurs, you can expect a bidding frenzy unlike many others. As Ben Badler of Baseball America puts it on Twitter, he rates Otani higher than any pitching prospects currently in MLB organizations.

Here’s more from the broader baseball world:

  • The Padres are expected to make some noise on the international market, as Badler writes and Longenhagen also covers in the above-linked piece. San Diego appears to be the favorite to land two high-end Cuban talents: 19-year-old outfielder Jorge Ona and young southpaw Adrian Morejon. (The Cubs had been seen as having an edge on the latter, per Badler, but now seem to have made way for the Pads.) Per the report, the club is also primed to add a few significant July 2 prospects from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela.
  • GM A.J. Preller has long been known for his international attention and acumen, and it seems that he’s now putting that background to work as his organization looks to rebuild a lightly-regarded farm system. Indeed, the team appears to be giving quite a bit of attention to yet another young Cuban player, Lazaro “Lazarito” Armenteros, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune details. Like the Braves, San Diego would need to convince him to wait until the next July 2 period to avoid incurring penalties (for exceeding this year’s international spending caps) that would foul up other significant moves.
  • We’ve heard previously that the Friars are among the clubs expected to bust their budgets in the coming July 2 signing season, and the Cardinals appear set to join them, Badler reports (building upon a recent report that St. Louis was looking to be aggressive). He notes that there’s some interplay with the possibility that the organization could be penalized relating to the Astros computer breach scandal, which might cost draft picks (or, conceivably, international money). Two names to watch for St. Louis, per Badler, are top Venezuelan outfielder Victor Garcia and 17-year-old Cuban center fielder Jonatan Machado.
  • The recent MLB international prospect showcase had players from eight countries in attendance, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes, and there’s hope for further expansion in the future. Athletics GM David Forst says that the process of evaluating young international players has changed dramatically in recent years, with events like this featuring actual game action (rather than just workouts) providing a chance “to see these kids play in games against their peers and similar competition.”

Rosenthal Latest: O’s, White Sox, Ethier, Padres, A’s

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There’s plenty of trade chatter as camp approaches, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes in a column today. That’s already been made evident by the notable deal struck earlier this evening. As always, a full read is recommended, but here are some of the highlights of the post:

  • The Orioles would prefer to add Dexter Fowler after signing Yovani Gallardo — assuming they can get that deal done — says Rosenthal. But if that doesn’t work out for some reason, Baltimore’s backup plan would be to pursue a deal for Jay Bruce. The Reds appear to have realistic expectations with the veteran, who hasn’t been consistently productive in recent years and is owed $12.5MM this year (with a $13MM option for another season). Indeed, getting something done would likely require rather modest expectations. Though Bruce has shown quite a bit of talent over the years, and is still shy of thirty years of age, his track record over the past two seasons (.222/.288/.406) isn’t inspiring.
  • The White Sox could be a threat on Fowler or other free agent outfielders, per the report. Chicago seems to have more interest in adding there than in pursuing Ian Desmond, as the team likes its internal options at shortstop. The South Siders are pushing on multiple fronts and might well also line up a deal for Avisail Garcia if they make a significant addition. The willingness to be flexible and seek creative avenues to value could certainly serve the Sox well as the winter wraps up; the team already seems to have done well in securing Mat Latos at just $3MM.
  • Chicago’s interest in Andre Ethier has been overstated, says Rosenthal, but the Dodgers have indeed explored trade scenarios. It’s a complicated decision, as he notes, since Ethier has been plenty useful. Then there’s the fact that his contract status comes with some intricacies. Ethier is set to reach ten-and-five rights early in the year, and his vesting clause poses a bit of a barrier for possible suitors. From my perspective, it remains somewhat difficult to see another organization being willing to take on enough salary (and/or give back enough value) to make a deal work out. There’s $38MM still to go over two years, plus the threat of a reasonably attainable vesting clause, and that’s quite a bit for a player who will soon turn 34 and would come with expectations of being a solid regular rather than a difference maker.
  • While the Padres are still looking around for deals, discussing players like Matt Kemp and Derek Norris, near-term deals for those prominent names appear unlikely. Likewise, the Athletics have had talks involving Billy Butler, and may even have had one opportunity to deal the struggling DH. Butler is more expendable than ever with Khris Davis now in the fold, though that addition hardly makes a trade inevitable given how much Butler is owed. Oakland will presumably hope he can rebuild value by carrying momentum from a solid finish to an otherwise rough 2015.

Orioles Discussing Three-Year Deal With Yovani Gallardo

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FEB. 12, 6:38pm: A deal isn’t expected to come together this evening, Kubatko tweets.

9:06am: There’s some hope that the deal could be completed today, tweets Heyman, though the two sides are still debating whether the deal would be three years or three years plus an option, he notes. Once the Orioles have Gallardo’s deal wrapped up, the focus will shift to a bat, Heyman adds. They’ve been linked to Dexter Fowler, Jay Bruce and Pedro Alvarez recently.

FEB. 10, 5:07pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that “if and when” the deal between the Orioles and Gallardo is finalized, he’ll be guaranteed $40-45MM over three years.

10:40am: There’s momentum toward a deal, but some “tweaks” in the proposed terms are needed to finalize a pact, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links).

9:54am: The sides are “moving close” to a contract that would include three guaranteed years, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. It’s possible that an opt-out would be included, adds Heyman, who notes that an agreement is not yet in place. Baltimore appears to be in the lead to add Gallardo and already recently began reviewing his medicals, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com adds.

9:30am: The Orioles are “making progress” in contract talks with free agent righty Yovani Gallardo, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Baltimore has long been said to be interested in the soon-to-be 30-year-old, but this report provides the first indication of deepening negotiations.

Gallardo declined a qualifying offer from the Rangers at the outset of the offseason, of course, and thus requires a signing team to sacrifice a draft pick to sign. In the Orioles’ case, the team would stand to part with its first-round choice — currently, the 14th overall selection. And it has been hesitant to do that after already missing out on possible comp picks in two cases (Matt Wieters and Chris Davis).

It’s not clear to what extent other teams remain involved in the hunt for the veteran, but many of the organizations that seemed plausible landing spots have taken alternative routes to building out their rotation. For instance, the Astros signed Doug Fister and the White Sox added Mat Latos. Recent reports also suggest that the Rockies are no longer in pursuit of Gallardo.

The qualifying offer is obviously a factor in Gallardo’s market, as it is with any player who receives one, but the bigger question in his value lies in how you view his results against his peripherals. As Tyler Clippard’s signing just proved, a lengthy track record of excellence may not always translate to corresponding earnings in free agency, even for somewhat younger pitchers, where there’s a lot of wear-and-tear and signs of declining underlying ability.

In the case of Gallardo, there’s plenty to like about his recent run prevention record, which includes 184 innings of 3.42 ERA pitching last year. But he’s also seen his strikeout rate fall all the way to 5.9 per nine with his walks rising to 3.3 BB/9. And Gallardo’s average fastball has declined by more than two miles per hour from his highest annual mean velocity.

It’s obvious to see why the Orioles are interested in bolstering a rotation that’s now without Wei-Yin Chen (who at least left a comp pick when he departed). There are options, to be sure. But there isn’t much in the way of upside — Kevin Gausman probably carries the most — and even some of the depth comes with its own questions. Baltimore figures to utilize Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez in the starting five, with pitchers such as Odrisamer Despaigne, Vance Worley, Mike Wright, and Tyler Wilson also factoring into the competition.

Ultimately, it’s not clear that Gallardo would end up representing a truly significant upgrade over Baltimore’s current options, but he’s an established arm with a nice track record of durability. It’s worth noting, too — as Steve Adams pointed out to me — that his strong groundball rate (49.3% last year) would figure to play well with a high-quality Orioles infield defense to back him.

MLBTR Podcast: O’s Late Moves & Under-the-Radar Deals

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Host Jeff Todd and MLBTR’s Steve Adams break down the latest chatter around the Orioles — in particular, the club’s reported interest in qualifying offer-bound free agents Yovani Gallardo and Dexter Fowler.

Then, they talk through some of their most and least-liked, under-the-radar moves of the winter thus far. Among many other transactions discussed, Steve likes the Mariners’ addition of Nori Aoki and the Rangers’ move to bring Tony Barnette back stateside, while Jeff questions the Rockies’ signing of Jason Motte. The addition of veteran righty Tyler Clippard by the Diamondbacks, meanwhile, is a source of debate.

Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.

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