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Archives for October 2016

World Series Notes: Trades, Rizzo, Martinez, Rebuilding

By charliewilmoth | October 30, 2016 at 7:06pm CDT

Andrew Miller has thrived with the Indians and Aroldis Chapman has done well with the Cubs, but that doesn’t change the Yankees’ sides of the trades that sent those relievers packing, writes the New York Post’s Joel Sherman. Even if the Indians and Cubs had missed the World Series, the Yankees had two top-notch relievers to deal and needed to get peak value from them. The Yankees need to hit on their acquisitions of Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield and Gleyber Torres, but the spotlights on Miller and Chapman shouldn’t cause Yankees fans to become increasingly impatient. Sherman notes that many key Indians players (including Corey Kluber, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Bryan Shaw) were acquired in veterans-for-prospects deals much like the ones the Yankees made in dealing Miller and Chapman. Here’s more on the World Series, and what, if anything, teams that aren’t in the Series can learn from the teams that are.

  • The Cubs had similar success in veterans-for-prospects trades, getting Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Addison Russell, Pedro Strop and Travis Wood in such deals. But just as important was the 2012 deal that sent Andrew Cashner and a minor leaguer to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo and a prospect, as SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee notes in a list of key trades for both World Series teams. For awhile, Cashner looked like one of the NL’s better young starters, but the deal eventually tilted in the Cubs’ favor as Cashner struggled despite his excellent stuff and Rizzo became a force in the middle of Chicago’s lineup.
  • It’s doubtful whether Theo Epstein would have been able to rebuild the Red Sox the way he did with the Cubs, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. The Red Sox faithful would not have shown much patience for such a rebuild, MacPherson argues. Of course, Boston has had its share of losing seasons in recent years, but never were such losing seasons part of a broader rebuilding project, and MacPherson highlights the differences between some of the big trades the Cubs have made during losing periods and those of the Red Sox. When they traded Jon Lester, Jon Lackey and Miller in 2014, for example, the Red Sox got veterans like Yoenis Cespedes, Joe Kelly and Allen Craig. They did get youngster Eduardo Rodriguez in the Miller deal, and had success with the Lester deal too, in that they traded Cespedes and Alex Wilson for Rick Porcello. But it’s clear the Red Sox took a fundamentally different approach. Of course, it’s arguable that a full rebuild wasn’t necessary for the Red Sox at that time — by 2014 they were one year removed from a World Series victory and were already in the process of integrating youngsters like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley into their lineup, and they had an excellent season of their own in 2016, just two years later.
  • Regardless of what happens in the World Series, the Cubs plan to ask coaches to return in 2017, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers writes. They are, however, considering the possibility that bench coach Dave Martinez could depart, since Martinez appears to be a candidate for the Rockies’ open managerial job. Maddon says Martinez’s current job has prepared him well. “When the guy does the bench coaching properly, I absolutely believe it sets him up to be a manager,” says Maddon. “He should be there to let the manager intellectualize the day.”
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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs New York Yankees Dave Martinez

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Red Sox Haven’t Told Clay Buchholz Whether Option Will Be Exercised

By charliewilmoth | October 30, 2016 at 5:35pm CDT

The Red Sox haven’t told righty Clay Buchholz whether they plan to exercise his option, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes. Buchholz’s contract calls for a $13.5MM option or a $500K buyout for 2017. The Red Sox have until five days after the World Series to decide. They also had an option on Buchholz for this past season, and by this point last year, they had already told him they planned to exercise it, Bradford notes.

Whether Boston would exercise Buchholz’s option after a disappointing season (4.78 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 3.7 BB/9) in which he lost his rotation spot has lately been a topic of speculation. Most recent reporting, though, has indicated that the Sox are leaning toward picking up the option.

That would seem to be a defensible decision, depending on how the Red Sox feel about Buchholz’s performance down the stretch. After making mechanical adjustments and taking a two-week break from appearing in games in early July, Buchholz fared well in the second half (when he had a 3.22 ERA). His struggles early in the season could perhaps be seen as related to a flexor strain that cost him the last two and a half months of an otherwise-strong 2015 campaign. He’s also only 32 and has a long record of at least modest success as a starter. Also, with a weak free agent market for starting pitching, he could potentially have trade value even if the Red Sox don’t have concrete plans for him.

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Boston Red Sox Clay Buchholz

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Quick Hits: Cubs, Indians, Astros, McCann, Red Sox

By Connor Byrne | October 30, 2016 at 4:38pm CDT

This year’s World Series representatives, the Cubs and Indians, have benefited from the Red Sox’s September collapse in 2011, as Ken Davidoff of the New York Post observes. After the Red Sox blew a nine-game lead in the wild-card race that year, the team parted with two-time World Series-winning manager Terry Francona, who is now one victory away from helping the Indians to their first championship since 1948. The executive who hired Francona in Boston, Theo Epstein, departed after that season to take over the Cubs, with whom he has built what should be a long-term contender. And two of his veteran free agents signings in Chicago, starters Jon Lester and John Lackey, were at the center of a memorable controversy with the Sox in 2011. Along with fellow starter Josh Beckett, Lester and Lackey made a habit of drinking beer, eating fried chicken and playing videogames in the clubhouse during games in which they weren’t pitching. The Red Sox didn’t ax any of those pitchers because of it, though, as each was on the team in 2012. They eventually traded Beckett to the Dodgers in August 2012, while Lester and Lackey were part of the franchise’s latest championship squad in 2013.

More from around the majors:

  • Speaking of Lester, the fact that he’s no longer with the Red Sox is “inexplicable,” opines Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. The club selected Lester in the second round of the 2002 draft and helped develop him into a star, but it then traded him to the Athletics in the midst of a non-contending season in 2014. The Red Sox got Yoenis Cespedes in return and later flipped him for rotation stalwart Rick Porcello, so it wasn’t a total loss for Boston. The Sox could have ended up with both Lester and Porcello, but they were unwilling to match the Cubs’ winning offer for the then-free agent left-hander in December 2014. Lester will take the ball in Game 5 of the World Series on Sunday and attempt to help Chicago, down 3-1, keep its title hopes alive.
  • The Astros are a fit for catcher Brian McCann if the Yankees shop him during the offseason, opines the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, who cites both Houston’s need for a left-handed bat and backstop Jason Castro’s status as a soon-to-be free agent. With catcher/designated hitter Evan Gattis joining Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman and Yulieski Gurriel, the Astros are slated to have at least six right-handed batters in their lineup next year. McCann would add balance, and serve as an offensive upgrade over Castro, while likely alternating with Gattis behind the plate and at DH. There are potential roadblocks in the way of a McCann deal, however, including the 32-year-old’s full no-trade clause and the $34MM left on his contract through 2018.
  • With Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara and Brad Ziegler all set to become free agents, the Red Sox are likely to focus heavily on their bullpen during the offseason, writes Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. Drellich doesn’t expect the Red Sox to go after the top soon-to-be available relievers – Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon – instead listing Sergio Romo, Drew Storen and Boone Logan as a few possibilities they could pursue on the open market. While the popular belief is that the Red Sox will go after Edwin Encarnacion to replace the retired David Ortiz at DH, Carlos Beltran is also a possible target, Drellich suggests. Boston was among the teams interested in Beltran before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but the archrival Yankees ultimately dealt him to the Rangers.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Houston Astros Brian McCann Jon Lester

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Marlins Looking To Acquire Starting Pitching

By Connor Byrne | October 30, 2016 at 2:18pm CDT

The Marlins’ main objective is to upgrade their rotation during the offseason, but their limited budget will likely prevent them from chasing either of the best impending free agent starters, Rich Hill or Jeremy Hellickson, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.

The upcoming free agent market is largely devoid of quality starters, which means the Marlins could go the trade route to bolster their rotation. The team doesn’t plan to shop its two best outfielders – Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich – or catcher J.T. Realmuto in an attempt to acquire pitching, though it’s willing to listen to potential offers for outfielder Marcell Ozuna, second baseman Dee Gordon, shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and utilityman Derek Dietrich, Jackson reports.

In the wake of former ace Jose Fernandez’s tragic death last month, the Marlins are down to Adam Conley, Wei-Yin Chen and Tom Koehler as their top starters heading into the winter. That’s an uninspiring trio on paper, but president of baseball operations Michael Hill believes Conley possesses “top of the rotation talent.” Since debuting in 2015, the 26-year-old has posted a 3.82 ERA, 8.22 K/9 and 3.73 BB/9 in 200 1/3 innings. The Marlins are also optimistic about Chen, who was a letdown this season after signing a five-year, $80MM deal with them last winter. Chen recorded the best K-BB percentage of his career (14.6), but he logged a bloated 4.96 ERA – up from a personal-best 3.34 with Baltimore in 2015. The 31-year-old also totaled just 123 1/3 innings because of an elbow injury that kept him out from late July until the end of September.

Three of the Marlins’ four potential trade chips (Ozuna, Hechavarria and Dietrich) are on track to receive raises via arbitration during the winter, while Gordon is controllable through 2021 on the five-year, $50MM extension he signed last January. The speedy Gordon inked that deal off two straight terrific seasons, but his value has since taken hits from an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs and a stark decline in offensive production in the 79 contests he played this year.

Ozuna, who MLBTR projects will net $4.5MM in his first of three potential arbitration trips, was also on the block last offseason. The Mariners, Rangers and Reds were among the teams in on Ozuna, who was coming off a subpar season that included a demotion to Triple-A New Orleans. That 33-game minor league stint drew the ire of both Ozuna and agent Scott Boras, but in spite of the bad blood between them and the Marlins, no trade materialized. Ozuna then slashed .266/.321/.452 with 23 home runs in 608 plate appearances in a bounce-back 2016, which could put the soon-to-be 26-year-old on the radar of outfielder-needy teams. Ozuna has typically fared better in right field than center, where he ranked toward the bottom of the majors in Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating this year.

While Hechavarria has been among the league’s premier defensive shortstops since last season, his below-average offense cratered this year (.238/.283/.311 in 547 PAs) and somewhat cancelled out his fielding prowess. MLBTR’s arbitration forecast for Hechavarria calls for a $3.7MM salary in 2017, which will be his penultimate year of club control. The fact that there are no starting-caliber shortstops set to hit the free agent market could help the Marlins’ cause if they shop him, though it’s certainly poor timing for them that Hechavarria had such a dreadful season at the plate.

Dietrich is in his first of four arbitration years, and he should make in the eminently affordable $1.8MM neighborhood in 2017. The 27-year-old spent time at first, second and third base this season, with the vast majority of his work coming at the keystone as a result of Gordon’s suspension. Dietrich also has experience in left field, but unless the Marlins deal Ozuna or Gordon, playing time could be difficult to come by for him in Miami. In addition to Gordon at second, the Marlins already have Justin Bour and Martin Prado locked in as their starting first and third basemen, thus limiting Dietrich to a bench role if the team’s lineup remains intact. Nevertheless, the Marlins regard Dietrich as someone who’s capable of starting, Jackson writes, and he made his case this season with a .279/.374/.425 line in 412 trips to the plate.

If the Marlins aren’t able to pick up a pair of starting pitchers from outside the organization during the offseason, swingman David Phelps could end up in the rotation next season, Hill told Jackson. Phelps, who was outstanding as both a reliever and starter this year, has made 64 starts with the Yankees and Marlins since cracking the major leagues in 2012. The Marlins also have Justin Nicolino and Jose Urena on hand as somewhat experienced options, but neither has been effective in the big leagues.

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Miami Marlins Adam Conley Adeiny Hechavarria Christian Yelich David Phelps Dee Gordon Derek Dietrich Giancarlo Stanton J.T. Realmuto Jeremy Hellickson Jose Urena Justin Nicolino Marcell Ozuna Rich Hill Wei-Yin Chen

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Rockies, Diamondbacks To Interview Don Wakamatsu

By Connor Byrne | October 30, 2016 at 12:19pm CDT

Royals bench coach Don Wakamatsu is set to interview for both the Rockies’ and Diamondbacks’ managerial positions, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman.

The 53-year-old Wakamatsu has previous experience as a major league skipper, having served in that role with the Mariners from 2009-10. Seattle went 85-77 under Wakamatsu in his first year at the helm, but the club fired him in August 2010 after spiraling to a 42-70 mark. Wakamatsu then worked for both the Blue Jays and Yankees before joining Royals manager Ned Yost’s staff in 2014.

Wakamatsu is the latest of several names connected to Colorado’s job, which the club has been looking to fill since parting with Walt Weiss earlier this month. Heyman reported Saturday that Indians first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. and Cubs bench coach Dave Martinez are likely to interview with the Rockies after the World Series. The team also has a meeting planned with Marlins bench coach Tim Wallach, and former Padres manager Bud Black, ex-Astros skipper Brad Mills and Rockies Triple-A manager Glenallen Hill are on the radar.

Arizona, meanwhile, has already booked an interview for the upcoming week with broadcaster and former major leaguer Alex Cora. He and Wakamatsu could end up in a five- to seven-candidate race as new general manager Mike Hazen searches for a successor to Chip Hale. Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo, whom Hazen knows from his time as Boston’s assistant GM, is the favorite to land the job.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies Don Wakamatsu

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NL Notes: Chapman, Dodgers, Cubs, Reds

By Connor Byrne | October 30, 2016 at 10:36am CDT

Had their offseason attempt to acquire then-Cincinnati closer Aroldis Chapman not fallen through over his domestic violence issues, the Dodgers would have deployed the left-hander aggressively in a setup role, a club official told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. That would have meant continuing with Kenley Jansen as the closer, which the Dodgers believe Chapman would have accepted after doing background work on him. Chapman ended up going to the Yankees, who shipped him to the Cubs in advance of this year’s non-waiver trade deadline. The flame-throwing 28-year-old could join the Dodgers in free agency during the offseason, notes Sherman, who writes that the team still has a high opinion of him. Los Angeles is also facing the potential departure of Jansen, who is set to join Chapman on the open market.

More from the National League:

  • The Ricketts family, owners of the Cubs, are considering launching their own regional sports network before the 2019 expiration of their local television rights agreements, according to Kathy Bergen and Robert Channick of the Boston Herald. PwC, a consulting firm, projects that media rights will become professional sports teams’ biggest source of direct revenue by 2018. With that in mind, the Cubs could try to follow in the footsteps of the Dodgers, who launched regional network SportsNet LA with Time Warner Cable on a 25-year, $8.35 billion deal in 2014. Some cable providers have been reluctant to carry the channel because of its higher premium, though, and that might make such a lucrative agreement unrealistic for the Cubs, per Bergen and Channick. If the Cubs do form their own network, it could be in a partnership with Comcast SportsNet Chicago, which currently carries 79 games per season and pays the team $500K for each.
  • Outgoing Reds president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty told C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer that the team’s rebuild will succeed “as long as everybody doesn’t get too impatient.” The Reds have won fewer than 76 games in three straight seasons – including 68 this year – but Jocketty informed Rosecrans that the face of the franchise, superstar first baseman Joey Votto, is on board with the club’s direction. “I can see the light at the end of the tunnel with this club. I talk to guys like Joey (Votto) — Joey sees it, he’s excited about it. I’ve seen him more engaged with some of these young guys,” said Jocketty, who will transition to an advisory role as general manager Dick Williams takes control of the Reds’ baseball department.
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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Los Angeles Dodgers Aroldis Chapman Joey Votto Walt Jocketty

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Heyman’s Latest: CBA, Orioles, Rangers, Jays, Rockies

By Connor Byrne | October 30, 2016 at 8:45am CDT

Commissioner Rob Manfred expressed optimism about negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement earlier this month, and players’ association executive director Tony Clark did the same Saturday, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman. “I’ve always been a glass half-full guy. We continue to work. We continue to go through the issues,” said Clark, who didn’t reveal if the draft-pick compensation attached to the qualifying offer will remain the same in the next CBA. In the current agreement that’s set to expire in December, a team receives a first-round pick if it issues a QO to an impending free agent and he then signs elsewhere.

More from Heyman:

  • The Orioles are still mulling whether to qualify catcher Matt Wieters, relays Heyman, who notes that the next CBA could affect their decision. Baltimore tendered a QO last year to Wieters, who accepted it and remained with the team on a $15.8MM salary. Wieters then had arguably the worst season of his career, hitting .243/.302/.409 in 464 plate appearances and grading poorly as a defender. In the event the Orioles qualify Wieters again and he accepts, he’ll be on their books for $17.2MM in 2017 – his age-31 season.
  • The Rangers are interested in re-signing outfielder Carlos Gomez, reports Heyman. It’s already known that team president and GM Jon Daniels is prioritizing center field, so bringing back Gomez wouldn’t be surprising. The Astros released Gomez in August after a dismal showing dating back to 2015, but he was resurgent down the stretch for a Rangers club that plucked him off the scrapheap. Serving as primarily a corner outfielder while Ian Desmond manned center, Gomez hit .284/.362/.543 with eight home runs in 130 PAs to rebuild some of his stock before free agency. Desmond is also slated to hit the open market, and Daniels observed that he and Gomez “have kind of a similar profile.”
  • Blue Jays outfielder Michael Saunders is another qualifying offer candidate, but it could be “tough” for the team to issue him one, Heyman opines. General manager Ross Atkins said earlier this week the Jays were “still working” on what to do with Saunders, whose 2016 was a tale of two halves. Saunders, 30 in November, slashed .298/.372/.551 in 305 PAs before the All-Star break and posted an ugly second-half line of .178/.282/.357 in 185 trips to the plate.
  • Cubs bench coach Dave Martinez and Indians first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. seem likely to interview for the Rockies’ managerial opening after the World Series, per Heyman, who also names a few previously reported candidates in Marlins bench coach Tim Wallach, former Padres manager Bud Black, ex-Astros skipper Brad Mills and Rockies Triple-A manager Glenallen Hill.
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Baltimore Orioles Collective Bargaining Agreement Colorado Rockies Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Carlos Gomez Dave Martinez Matt Wieters Michael Saunders Sandy Alomar Jr.

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MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | October 30, 2016 at 8:14am CDT

This week’s original content from MLBTR:

  • This year’s Offseason Outlook series continued rolling along with pieces focusing on the Orioles, Royals, Brewers and Astros.
  • Steve Adams polled readers on whether the Orioles should extend a qualifying offer to catcher Matt Wieters for the second straight offseason.
  • Charlie Wilmoth asked if the Brewers should tender a contract to slugging first baseman Chris Carter, who’s due an appreciable raise in arbitration.
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MLBTR Originals

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

By Connor Byrne | October 29, 2016 at 10:06pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

After snapping a nine-year playoff drought a season ago, the Astros entered the 2016 campaign with championship aspirations. A dreadful April ultimately helped doom the Astros to a third-place finish in the American League West, but they still recorded their second straight winning season for the first time in a decade. Given the plethora of talent that’s already in place, a productive offseason from general manager Jeff Luhnow would restart the hype machine for Houston next spring.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yulieski Gurriel, IF/OF: $44MM through 2020
  • Tony Sipp, RP: $12MM through 2018
  • Luke Gregerson, RP: $6.25MM through 2017
  • Jose Altuve, 2B: $4.5MM through 2017 (club options for 2018 and 2019)
  • Jon Singleton, 1B: $4MM through 2018 (club options from 2019-2021)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Marwin Gonzalez (4.133) – $3.6MM
  • Dallas Keuchel (4.089) – $9.5MM
  • Will Harris (3.102) – $2.5MM
  • Mike Fiers (3.085) – $4.3MM
  • Collin McHugh (3.085) – $4.6MM
  • George Springer (2.166) – $4.7MM
  • Jake Marisnick (2.135) – $1.1MM

Contract Options

  • Pat Neshek, RP: $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Evan Gattis, C/DH: $5.2MM club option ($100K buyout)

Free Agents

Colby Rasmus, Doug Fister, Luis Valbuena, Jason Castro

Astros Depth Chart; Astros Payroll Information

At the outset of the season, the Astros had an enviable long-term core of position players consisting of second baseman Jose Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa and right fielder George Springer. That group welcomed two new members during the summer in Alex Bregman and Yulieski Gurriel. The arrival of the 22-year-old Bregman, whom the Astros chose second overall in the 2015 draft, wasn’t surprising. But the addition of Gurriel, 32, from outside the organization was an eye-opener. Houston won the much-hyped sweepstakes for the the longtime Cuban superstar in July, inking him to a five-year, $47.5MM pact.

Gurriel’s deal is the largest free agent contract the Astros have handed out since Jim Crane purchased the franchise in 2011. The Astros were in a rebuild in the first few years of Crane’s tenure, thus leading to limited payrolls – including a comically low $26MM and change in 2013. While the Astros have spent far more liberally of late, the $96MM-plus payroll with which they opened this year still ranked toward the bottom of the majors. In discussing his offseason plans earlier this month, Luhnow revealed that Houston aims to spend on outside acquisitions, saying, “We’re going to have the resources to go out and sign some players.”

The Luhnow-led Astros took a modest approach to free agency last winter, when the only multiyear deal they doled out went to reliever Tony Sipp (three years, $18MM). They also reeled in starter Doug Fister for $7MM and retained outfielder Colby Rasmus, who eschewed the open market in favor of the Astros’ $15.8MM qualifying offer. Those two are without contracts again, and after their mediocre performances this year, it’s doubtful Houston will re-sign either (Luhnow has all but said Rasmus’ tenure with the Astros is over).

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Two other notable Astros, third baseman Luis Valbuena and catcher Jason Castro, are also unsigned. Valbuena has been a solid offensive producer in his two seasons in Houston, but as primarily a third baseman, he might not have a place on the team anymore. Either Bregman or Gurriel will take over at the hot corner (Luhnow called Bregman’s rookie showing there “exceptional”), and with them around, Valbuena’s only hope to stay with the Astros could be as a first baseman. Even that might not be realistic if Gurriel is the Astros’ choice to man first.

In Castro’s case, the Astros have a “strong desire” to keep the backstop around, according to Luhnow. Castro combines roughly league-average offense relative to his position with defensive excellence, so losing him wouldn’t be an ideal outcome for the Astros. However, as one of the majors’ most accomplished soon-to-be free agent catchers (Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos and Nick Hundley are the others), he’s a candidate to find a raise and full-time work with another team.

Given that the Astros relied so heavily on Fister, Rasmus, Valbuena and Castro this year, their statuses will certainly affect how the club handles the offseason. Fister tossed the Astros’ second-most innings (180 1/3), so venturing outside the organization for a replacement is possible. Rasmus played more than half the season in left field and was actually one of the league’s elite defenders. As mentioned, the Astros have ready-made successors to Valbuena at third, though bringing him back as a first baseman would take away a potential need there.

Behind the plate, it’s likely Castro’s exit would at least mean adding a backup to slugger Evan Gattis, whose $5.2MM club option the Astros will exercise. Houston has other backstops under control in Max Stassi and Tyler Heineman, but opting for a free agent like Kurt Suzuki, Geovany Soto or Alex Avila instead isn’t out of the question. While Gattis earned mostly positive defensive marks from Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner in his 52 games at catcher this year, the Astros could be more comfortable with him as mainly a designated hitter. If so, the urgency to lock up Castro, obtain Wieters or Hundley, or pursue a trade for a veteran (the Yankees’ Brian McCann or the Padres’ Derek Norris, to name a couple) would seemingly increase. While Ramos could draw the Astros’ interest, too, it’s difficult to speculate on a player who had major knee surgery earlier this month.

Along with catcher, Luhnow has publicly identified first base and the outfield as areas worth addressing. The Astros entered the season hoping then-highly touted prospect A.J. Reed would force his way into the everyday first base role, but he didn’t resemble a major league-caliber option in his 45-game, 141-plate appearance introduction (.164/.270/.262). Tyler White was also subpar in 276 PAs (.217/.286/.378), utilityman Marwin Gonzalez doesn’t have the bat to handle the position, and Jon Singleton might be a lost cause. If Luhnow doesn’t want to hand the reins at first to those four or Gurriel, who could head to the outfield if Bregman stays at third, there will be potential solutions on the open market.

The Blue Jays’ Edwin Encarnacion is the premier soon-to-be available choice at first – and the right-handed hitter would donate plenty of souvenirs to the fans sitting in Minute Maid Park’s Crawford Boxes in left field – but the 33-year-old (34 in January) is a good bet to garner $20MM-plus per annum on a multiyear deal.While the Orioles’ Mark Trumbo and the Indians’ Mike Napoli should cost significantly less than Encarnacion, they might be too similar to former Astro Chris Carter for Luhnow’s taste. Two more Orioles, Steve Pearce and Pedro Alvarez, and the Cardinals’ Brandon Moss are also worth monitoring. Alvarez or Moss would provide a much-needed left-handed bat to a lineup whose best returning hitters (Altuve, Correa, Springer, Bregman, Gattis and Gurriel) are all righties. However, those two are also Carter-esque.

Shifting to the outfield, Houston could add two new starters to join Springer, though it’ll be just one if Bregman or Gurriel takes a spot. Aside from failed Astros experiment Carlos Gomez, some of the most established center field choices on the market will include another ex-Astro, switch-hitting Cub Dexter Fowler, as well as the Rangers’ Ian Desmond and the Padres’ Jon Jay. Both Fowler and Desmond will net sizable contracts. That won’t be the case with the lefty-swinging Jay, whom the Cardinals drafted when Luhnow was in their front office in 2006.

The Astros also have center field possibilities within their ranks in Springer, Jake Marisnick, Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher. Although defensively gifted, Marisnick has not established himself as an everyday player because of his negative offensive value. Hernandez, meanwhile, fared respectably at the plate in his first taste of the majors (.230/.304/.420) after several solid years in the minors. Fisher, whom Baseball America ranked as the sport’s 94th-best prospect in July, has done nothing but rake since the Astros chose him in the first round of the 2014 draft (Fisher could also succeed Rasmus in left).

In the corners, free agents like Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Bautista and the lefty-swinging Josh Reddick could pique the Astros’ interest. Cespedes is likely to sign the richest deal in free agency this winter, of course, so landing him might be a pipe dream for Houston. Bautista’s also going to command a high annual salary despite the fact that he’s 36 and seemingly on the decline.

The Astros had seven of Baseball America’s 100 best prospects at midseason (including Bregman but excluding Reed), so Luhnow could conceivably use his farm system and some of the youth on the Astros’ roster to acquire proven talent from other clubs. In the outfield, ex-Astro J.D. Martinez (Tigers), Andrew McCutchen (Pirates), Charlie Blackmon (Rockies), Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies), Yasiel Puig (Dodgers), Lorenzo Cain (Royals), Jorge Soler (Cubs), Ryan Braun (Brewers) and Jay Bruce (Mets) have all gone through the rumor mill in recent months.

The trade route’s also a possibility if the Astros try to upgrade their rotation in the offseason, as free agency won’t feature any front-end starters other than the Dodgers’ Rich Hill. Assuming their GMs would want Bregman in return, it’s probably fair to immediately rule out acquiring either of the White Sox’s aces – Chris Sale and Jose Quintana – and the Rays’ Chris Archer. Swinging a deal for Ervin Santana (Twins), Jake Odorizzi or Drew Smyly (Rays), Gio Gonzalez (Nationals), Jaime Garcia (Cardinals), Jason Hammel (Cubs) or Clay Buchholz (Red Sox) would be a more achievable goal, though it’s obviously not a lock any will move. Odorizzi and Smyly seldom generate ground balls, which would make them questionable fits for Minute Maid Park – especially with the removal of Tal’s Hill causing the center field fence to come in 27 feet (436 to 409). Garcia, on the other hand, is adept at inducing grounders and would benefit from exchanging the Cardinals’ infielders for the Astros’. Further, Luhnow was with the Cardinals when they drafted Garcia in 2005.

Although Houston’s rotation was a letdown in 2016, not picking up a starter from outside the organization over the next few months wouldn’t necessarily be catastrophic. The Astros currently have a full rotation on paper with 2015 AL Cy Young winner/2016 disappointment Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Collin McHugh, Joe Musgrove and Mike Fiers. Prospects Francis Martes, David Paulino and Brady Rodgers are in the mix, too, and Luhnow has expressed a desire to transition quietly superb reliever Chris Devenski to a starting role. Grabbing a veteran free agent at least deserves consideration, though, particularly with both Keuchel (shoulder) and McCullers (shoulder and elbow) having gone through injury-shortened seasons.

Sticking with the ground-ball theme, Ivan Nova, native Texan Andrew Cashner, Charlie Morton, Edinson Volquez, Jhoulys Chacin and Brett Anderson could each hit the market, but whether anyone from that group will be worth pursuing is debatable. The inconsistent, homer-prone Nova is going to sign a relatively substantial deal on account of two terrific months in Pittsburgh. Morton and Anderson just finished injury-plagued seasons (nothing new for either), and it’s no guarantee that healthy versions would be any better in 2017 than Fister was this year. The same goes for Cashner, Volquez and Chacin.

Fortunately for Houston, it has a bullpen capable of taking some of the burden off the starters. If Devenski remains a reliever after an outstanding rookie year, he’ll once again join Ken Giles, Luke Gregerson, Will Harris, Michael Feliz and the aforementioned Sipp to comprise most of the Astros’ bullpen. Jandel Gustave, who held his own after a late-season promotion, could also be a factor. Pat Neshek’s status is up in the air, meanwhile, as the team must decide whether to exercise the 36-year-old’s $6.5MM option or buy him out for $500K. Of those eight relievers, the only southpaw is Sipp, on whom left-handed hitters teed off on this year (.281/.360/.534). Luhnow is cognizant of that, having referred to the need to find another lefty as “glaring.” Signing the Cubs’ Aroldis Chapman in free agency would make the Astros’ bullpen downright frightening, but it’s tough to imagine them committing anywhere from $80MM to $100MM to a closer. Fellow impending free agents like Jerry Blevins, Brett Cecil, Mike Dunn, J.P. Howell, Boone Logan, Javier Lopez and Marc Rzepczynski are likelier targets.

Whether positively or negatively, every free agent covered thus far will contribute in 2017. But one infielder/outfielder on the market who already has Houston’s attention – Lourdes Gurriel –  isn’t a shoo-in to play in the majors next season. The Astros have shown interest in the brother of Yulieski Gurriel, whose presence could tip the scale in their favor if they make a serious attempt to woo Lourdes. The younger Gurriel became a free agent in August, but he has held off on signing because of the majors’ international bonus restrictions. Those are no longer relevant to Lourdes Gurriel, who turned 23 last week. A signing could come any day now, and until the Astros are out of the picture, they’ll be regarded as one of the favorites for Lourdes’ services because of his brother’s place in their organization.

Looking ahead to next season, whether Luhnow meaningfully upgrades the Astros’ roster in the coming months will determine if they’ll once again be on the short list of realistic World Series contenders in April. Houston didn’t follow up its 2015 coming-out party the way it wanted to, but some of the star-caliber talent already present at least gives the team a high floor. If Crane opens the purse strings and enables Luhnow to make a splash or two during the winter, the Astros could have a championship-level ceiling as early as next year.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook Houston Astros MLBTR Originals

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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Cubs, Jays, Bucs, Yanks, Astros

By Connor Byrne | October 29, 2016 at 8:27pm CDT

This week in the baseball blogosphere…

  • Chin Music Baseball argues that Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler has been the key to the World Series run.
  • BP Toronto praises the Blue Jays for building an excellent rotation without paying top dollar.
  • North Shore Nine writes that the Pirates should pursue a trade for Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, while Pirates Breakdown delves into the possibility of landing Tigers 2B Ian Kinsler.
  • Extra Innings: Baseball Around the World interviews all-time great closer Trevor Hoffman, who was Great Britain’s bullpen coach in the World Baseball Classic qualifying tournament.
  • The Runner Sports reminds us that a few Cubs used to be Astros.
  • Think Blue Planning Committee breaks down the Dodgers’ upcoming free agent class.
  • BaseballDocs predicts contract values for two of the top soon-to-be free agents, Yoenis Cespedes and Edwin Encarnacion.
  • Rotisserie Duck highlights the best clutch hitters of 2016.
  • Yanks Go Yard and Outside Pitch MLB name offseason trade targets for the Yankees.
  • When Sid Slid proposes a Braves-Astros trade centering on right-hander Julio Teheran.
  • Jays From The Couch opines that Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista has never been properly respected.
  • Wayniac Nation offers the perspective of a lifelong Cubs fan.
  • The Point of Pittsburgh examines the ways a new collective bargaining agreement could affect how the Pirates operate.
  • Jays Journal looks at potential offseason outfield targets for the Blue Jays.
  • Call To The Pen (links here) reviews the Orioles’ season and lists their top winter priorities.
  • CTTP also asks if it’s time for the Phillies to acquire a bat.
  • MLB451 regards Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval, Rangers right fielder Shin-Soo Choo and Brewers right-hander Matt Garza as possible trade candidates.
  • Clubhouse Corner points to first baseman Greg Bird and right-hander James Kaprielian as keys to the Yankees’ future.
  • Everything Bluebirds contends that the Blue Jays failing to re-sign Bautista and Encarnacion could eventually lead to Josh Donaldson’s departure.
  • Inside the ’Zona ranks and details the Diamondbacks’ 11th- through 20th-best prospects.
  • Sports Talk Philly observes that several players from the 2009 World Series between the Phillies and Yankees played their final games this year.
  • Camden Depot revisits its Orioles offseason predictions from a year ago.
  • Pinstriped Prospects checks in on the Yankees’ top 10 draft picks from this year’s class.

Please send submissions to ZachBBWI @gmail.com

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Baseball Blogs Weigh In

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