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Cafardo’s Latest: Red Sox, White Sox, Hanigan, Papelbon, Miller, Bard, Marlins

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Here’s the latest notes column from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, with a particular focus on how the Red Sox will be targeting DH, the bullpen and the rotation as their three main areas of need this offseason…

  • Acquiring Chris Sale would be a major rotation upgrade for the Red Sox, and since they had discussions with the White Sox about the star southpaw this summer, talks could be revisited in the offseason.  Cafardo figures Boston would have to give up Jackie Bradley Jr. (who the White Sox have long liked) and at least one of top prospects Yoan Moncada or Rafael Devers to land Sale; Chicago could also ask for Eduardo Rodriguez as part of the trade package.  It would be a heavy price to pay, though the White Sox are obviously going to shoot for the moon if they explore dealing their ace, who is both one of the game’s best pitchers and one of its best bargains thanks to his team-friendly contract.  The Red Sox would have Andrew Benintendi take over for Bradley in center field, while left field would presumably be handled by some combination of Chris Young, Brock Holt, Blake Swihart.  If not dealt, Moncada would also be in the mix for both 2017 and as a long-term answer.
  • Beyond those three big areas, catcher is also something of a question mark for the Red Sox.  Boston seems to be looking at a tandem of Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez behind the plate in 2017, which would indicate an $800K buyout of Ryan Hanigan’s $3.75MM club option for the coming season.  Leon had a huge breakout at the plate but rather came back to earth over the last six weeks of the season, while Vazquez has yet to show any ability to hit Major League pitching.
  • There’s still a chance the Red Sox could reunite with Jonathan Papelbon, as Cafardo figures the team will again check in with the veteran reliever.  Papelbon drew interest from several teams (including Boston) after being released by the Nationals last summer, though he didn’t sign anywhere.  There hasn’t been much Papelbon news in the last several weeks, so it’s unknown what the former closer’s plans are for 2017.
  • In his sole year as Red Sox manager, Bobby Valentine wanted to use both Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard out of the bullpen.  Miller was turning to relief pitching after failing to catch on as a starter, and he went to become one of the game’s best relievers.  Bard was already a bullpen star for the Sox, though both he and the front office wanted to transition to starting pitching.  That move proved disastrous for Bard, as he developed severe control problems that have curtailed his career.  He last pitched in the bigs in 2013 and has since bounced around the minors with four different organizations.
  • Marlins management will soon meet with club owner Jeffrey Loria to decide on the team’s offseason plans, which were thrown into disarray in the wake of Jose Fernandez’s tragic death.  Miami was in need of pitching even with Fernandez in the fold, and this winter’s very thin pitching market could leave the team unable to augment its impressive lineup.  Cafardo notes that rumors of the Marlins reloading the farm system by trading Giancarlo Stanton have swirled for years, though with Fernandez gone, Stanton may have become even more of a cornerstone piece for the club.

Heyman’s Latest: Baez, Soler, Lackey, Tigers, D’Backs, Bruce, Yankees

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Here’s a postseason-flavored set of notes from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports…

  • The Cubs’ decision to keep Javier Baez has proven to be a wise one, and Heyman writes that the team kept Baez over Starlin Castro last offseason because the front office simply had more belief in Baez’s potential.  Not only did Castro carry a much higher price tag than the pre-arb Baez, but the Cubs infielder is already looking like the more productive player — Baez posted 2.7 fWAR over 450 plate appearances, while Castro managed just 1.1 fWAR over 610 PA for the Yankees.  Baez has shown great power and is cutting back on his strikeouts, though while he is still something of a work in progress at the plate, his defense has already drawn raves.  One NL scout tells Heyman that he thinks Baez could win Gold Gloves at multiple positions in the future.
  • Jorge Soler could again be trade bait as the Cubs will be juggling a crowded outfield situation.  Kyle Schwarber will return to play left field, plus Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist would seem to be penciled in for center and right, respectively.  That mix also doesn’t include highly-touted rookie Albert Almora, or if the Cubs were to re-sign Dexter Fowler for center field.  Soler drew a lot of trade attention last winter and is signed through 2020, so though he hasn’t truly broken out as a big leaguer yet, he would surely be a big trade chip if the Cubs indeed explored moving him.
  • The Tigers and Diamondbacks both “tried hard” to sign John Lackey last winter before the right-hander inked his two-year, $32MM deal with the Cubs.  Lackey reportedly chose Chicago over two larger offers, though Heyman doesn’t know if the Tigers and D’Backs were the clubs behind those bigger deals.  Arizona was known to have “at least checked in” on Lackey last winter, and while Detroit’s involvement in the Lackey market is new information, it isn’t a surprise given how the Tigers targeted starting pitching last offseason.  Either team landing Lackey sets up several fascinating what-if scenarios, given that the D’Backs and Tigers made alternate pitching acquisitions that didn’t pan out in 2016.  If the Diamondbacks signed Lackey, perhaps they then wouldn’t have made the franchise-altering decisions to sign Zack Greinke or trade for Shelby Miller.  If the Tigers had gotten Lackey, perhaps they wouldn’t have spent $110MM on Jordan Zimmermann, or $16MM on Mike Pelfrey.
  • There have already been reports that the Mets intend to exercise their $13MM club option on Jay Bruce for 2017, and a rival executive tells Heyman that retaining Bruce is a move New York has to make.  Keeping Bruce would create some defensive issues within the Mets outfield, though the exec noted that “if they don’t want him, they could always trade him.”  Bruce slumped badly after joining the Mets but he posted strong numbers in the season’s first four months, so he’d certainly draw interest on the trade market.
  • Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield were the two headline prospects sent from Cleveland to New York in the Andrew Miller trade, and Heyman reports that some Indians staff believe Sheffield could be the bigger loss: “Sheffield is a lefty starter, which you can’t find, Frazier is a corner power bat, which you can.”  It’ll be several years before we can access how that trade worked out for either the Yankees or the Tribe, though needless to say, nobody in Cleveland has any regrets right now, given Miller’s dominance.

Braves, Jim Johnson Agree To Two-Year Extension

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TODAY: Johnson’s contract is worth $10MM in guaranteed money, The Associated Press reports.  He will be paid $4.5MM in 2017 and 2018, with a $1MM signing bonus.  The righty can earn up to $1.75MM in performance bonuses each season based on games finished.  Johnson earns $250K for finishing 30 games, and then another $250K for hitting each of the 35, 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60-game thresholds.

OCTOBER 2: Braves reliever Jim Johnson could have hit free agency during the offseason, but the 33-year-old will instead continue his career in Atlanta. He and the Braves have agreed to a two-year contract extension, according to a team announcement. Financial details are not yet available, but the deal will keep the Moye Sports Associates client under Atlanta’s control through the 2018 season.

Jim Johnson

Johnson is amid his second stint as a Brave after signing a one-year, $2.5MM deal with the club last offseason. That ended up being a bargain for the rebuilding Braves, as Johnson has logged a 3.11 ERA, 9.33 K/9 and 2.83 BB/9 over 63 2/3 innings. Johnson has also kept up a career-long trend of inducing ground balls, having posted a 55 percent mark, and added 19 saves on 22 chances. Overall, 2016 has been a major bounce-back season for Johnson, who fared poorly with the Tigers, Athletics and Dodgers during the previous two campaigns.

Despite his struggles elsewhere, Johnson has clearly found a home in Atlanta. Previously, he recorded a 2.25 ERA over 48 innings with the team in 2015 before it traded him to Los Angeles in July. Part of the reason for Johnson’s success with the Braves is his strong relationship with pitching coach Roger McDowell, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com (Twitter link). Going forward, the longtime Oriole – who has 153 career saves – said Sunday the plan is for him to remain as the Braves’ closer, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). That means Johnson will continue leading a bullpen cast that should include the likes of Ian Krol, Arodys Vizcaino and Mauricio Cabrera, among others, in 2017.

It’s unknown how much interest Johnson would have garnered as a free agent, of course, but playoff contenders were zeroing in on him as a trade target over the summer. In fact, a deal nearly came to fruition in late July, and the Blue Jays, Mets and Rangers were among the clubs that eyed Johnson in advance of the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. An unidentified team also claimed Johnson on revocable waivers in August, but the Braves pulled him back after they and the other club weren’t able to agree on a trade. Now, after nearly joining his sixth major league team over the summer, he’s primed to stay in Atlanta for the next couple years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pirates Focusing On Run Prevention

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Fresh off their first non-playoff season since 2012, the Pirates will prioritize improving their run prevention over the winter, reports Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. In 2015, when the Pirates won 98 games, they finished third in the majors in runs surrendered (596). That figure skyrocketed during a 78-win 2016 campaign for the Bucs, who allowed opposing teams to cross home plate 758 times (22nd in the league).

The better your pitching, the better your chances of stopping rivals from scoring, but general manager Neal Huntington isn’t optimistic about ameliorating the team’s staff via free agency. As Sawchik notes, the average starting pitcher deal during free agency last offseason was worth $10.02MM. Now, with so few appealing options set to hit the market, “it will be worse this year,” Huntington told Sawchik. “It is a reminder of how important it is for us to develop our own starting pitching,” the GM added.

The Pirates have one of the league’s top soon-to-be free agent rotation pieces in right-hander Ivan Nova, whom they acquired from the Yankees at this year’s trade deadline. Nova was a revelation in Pittsburgh and now looks primed to land a richer deal than anyone would have expected before he joined the Pirates. The club is trying to re-sign him, but the likelihood is he’ll hit the market, according to Sawchik.

With Nova perhaps on the brink of departing, Huntington opened up about the difficulties of working with a low payroll, saying that “every significant contract is a risk. When you look at Francisco Liriano at $13 million, when he performed well it is an affordable contract. But it’s the equivalent of $30-$40 million (per year) for the Dodgers. Percent of payroll is real. It’s not an excuse. When a contract is 13 percent of your payroll versus 4 percent, the level of risk tolerance is so very different …. How far do you stretch? It is a case-by-case situation.”

Huntington’s spending limitations played into the Pirates’ inability to re-sign left-hander J.A. Happ and add fellow southpaw Rich Hill last year. The Pirates lost out by $500K on Hill, whom the Athletics signed for $6MM.

“Sitting here now it’s easy to say we should have moved on J.A. Happ or Rich Hill,” commented Huntington. “We don’t have the benefit of hindsight.”

As for Liriano, the Pirates traded him to the Blue Jays at the Aug. 1 non-waiver deadline. Liriano was outstanding with Pittsburgh in 2015, the first of a three-year, $39MM deal, but that wasn’t the case this season. As a result, the payroll-challenged Bucs dealt two prospects along with Liriano in exchange for $18MM in savings and right-hander Drew Hutchison.

With none of Happ, Liriano or Hill in the picture, the Pirates unsurprisingly have rotation questions going forward. Righties Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are sure to fill two rotation spots for the club. Tyler Glasnow, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, Trevor Williams and Hutchison are among their other potential in-house rotation candidates. They’re not the most confidence-inspiring choices, which Huntington addressed.

“Some will continue to progress. The real world shows us some will regress,” he said.

If Huntington decides he’s not content with that group, he revealed that dealing position pitchers to “strengthen” his team’s rotation is a possibility. It’s unclear which players Huntington could part with, though center fielder Andrew McCutchen’s name has come up of late. While the longtime face of the franchise is a five-time All-Star and one-time NL MVP, his all-around performance drastically fell off last season and he especially hindered the Pirates’ ability to prevent runs. McCutchen’s minus-27 Defensive Runs Saved “catches your attention,” said Huntington, who attributes some of the 30-year-old’s fielding woes to the shallower alignment the team deployed this season. The Pirates are now evaluating how they’ll align their fielders in the future, per Sawchik. One thing that will remain is an emphasis on inducing ground balls.

“(The ground ball) is something that we’re going to keep as one of our cornerstones,” manager Clint Hurdle told Sawchik. “We’ve had a recipe for success and we want to follow it.”

Pittsburgh’s ground-ball percentage fell from 50.4 in 2015 to 46.9 this year, but the team still ranked third in the majors in that department. However, only nine clubs were worse at turning grounders into outs, StatCorner indicates . The Pirates ranked a far superior 12th at killing grounders the previous year, when they were a much better defensive team in general. Now, Huntington is trying to figure out how to restore the Pirates to their 2015 ways.

Free Agency Poll: Aroldis Chapman Or Kenley Jansen?

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This year’s NLCS between the Cubs and Dodgers is underway, and electrifying closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen figure to be among the series’ most important players. That was already the case for the two teams in the NLDS, when Chapman saved all three of the Cubs’ wins over the Giants – including two one-run affairs – and blew a save in Chicago’s only loss. Jansen had an ugly Game 2 showing against the Nationals, but he was otherwise tremendous, racking up saves in a pair of one-run contests before his all-important hold in a memorable Game 5. Jansen entered in the seventh inning Thursday and tossed 2 1/3 frames of 51-pitch, one-hit ball to preserve a 4-3 lead, which ace Clayton Kershaw closed out by retiring back-to-back hitters in the ninth.

One of Chapman or Jansen could very well secure the final out of this year’s World Series, after which the late-game aces are scheduled to become free agents. Given both their dominance and the ever-increasing importance of bullpens, Chapman and Jansen are in line to score the most valuable contracts ever awarded to relievers. The four-year, $50MM contract Jonathan Papelbon signed with the Phillies in 2011 is the record, but that deal’s days at the top are numbered. Now it’s a matter of figuring out whether Chapman or Jansen will land the richer pact.

The two will play their age-29 seasons in 2017, and their results have been similarly excellent since they debuted in 2011. In 377 combined innings with the Reds, Yankees and Cubs, Chapman has a 2.08 ERA, 15.18 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 42.3 percent ground-ball rate, 12.8 infield pop-up percentage and 17.7 percent swinging strike mark. Across 408 2/3 frames with the Dodgers, Jansen has posted a 2.20 ERA, 13.92 K/9 and 2.62 BB/9 with a worse ground-ball and swinging strike percentages than Chapman (33.4 and 15.7), though he does have the superior infield fly rate (13.8). In terms of their ability to finish games, Chapman has a nearly 90 percent success rate (182 saves in 203 chances), while Jansen has converted more than 88 percent of his save chances (189 of 214).

There aren’t notable differences in their age or career outputs, though Chapman and Jansen do diverge in certain areas. Chapman is a left-hander and Jansen a righty, for starters. With the ability to occasionally hit 105 mph on the radar gun, Chapman is the hardest thrower in baseball, but Jansen can offer a lethal 98 mph cutter. Also of importance, there are no off-the-field red flags with Jansen. That isn’t true in Chapman’s case

Chapman was on track last offseason to join Jansen in the Dodgers’ bullpen, but a trade between them and the Reds fell through amid domestic violence claims. Chapman was alleged to have struck his girlfriend and discharged a firearm while alone in his garage last October. Criminal charges were never filed, so Chapman did not face a trial. Nevertheless, the league did suspend him for the first month of the season, and it’s conceivable that such a serious incident could damage Chapman’s earning power as a free agent. On the other hand, contenders lined up to acquire Chapman from the Yankees at this year’s trade deadline, and the Cubs eventually surrendered one of baseball’s top prospects – shortstop Gleyber Torres – in a package for him.

The fact that Chapman switched teams during the season means he’ll be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, which will only boost his stock. The Dodgers will surely tender a QO to Jansen, meaning another club that signs him would have to give up a first-round pick in addition to the enormous contract it awards him. With other high-payroll teams like the Yankees, Giants and Nationals perhaps set to accompany the big-spending Cubs and Dodgers in the sweepstakes for Chapman and Jansen, they’re clearly going to earn sizable raises during the offseason. But which one will fare better on the open market?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Verlander, ALCS, Bucs, D-backs, Yanks

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This week in the baseball blogosphere…

Please send submissions to ZachBBWI @gmail.com

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/15/16

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The latest minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Orioles have outrighted infielder Paul Janish, who has elected free agency, per a club announcement. Baltimore designated the 34-year-old defensive specialist for assignment last week after he logged 35 plate appearances with the club this season. Most of Janish’s time this year was spent at Triple-A Norfolk, where he hit .248/.333/.280 in 283 trips to the plate. In his 1,277-PA big league career, Janish – previously with the Reds and Braves – has batted .216/.284/.289.
  • Like Janish, Angels right-hander A.J. Achter and outfielder Nick Buss have also elected free agency in lieu of outright assignments. The Angels designated the pair for assignment on Oct. 5. Achter pitched to a terrific 3.11 ERA in 37 2/3 innings with the Angels this year, but he did so despite striking out just 14 batters and surrendering 43 hits. The 28-year-old, also a former Twin, has 62 big league frames on his resume with a 4.79 K/9, 3.05 BB/9 and 3.92 ERA. In his most extensive major league action since the Dodgers selected him in the eighth round of the 2008 draft, Buss collected 90 PAs with the Angels this season and hit a meager .198/.247/.346. The soon-to-be 30-year-old has slashed a solid .298/.358/.444 in 1,820 Triple-A plate appearances.

Quick Hits: Jaso, Yankees, Cubs, Athletics

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The Pirates want John Jaso to work out at third base and in the outfield this winter, MLB.com’s Adam Berry reports. Jaso was a catcher prior to the 2016 season, but moved to first base this year and had immediate success defensively, so it’s wouldn’t be that surprising if he were capable of handling third as well. The idea that Jaso could be used in a multi-positional role in 2017, though, suggests that the Pirates could have Josh Bell (a far worse defender than Jaso, but a younger player and a slightly better hitter, at least by 2016 statistics) take the bulk of the playing time at first base. The team already has David Freese available to back up Bell at first and Jung Ho Kang at third, so finding time for Jaso as a third baseman might be difficult. There might be a bit more space for Jaso in the outfield, with backups Matt Joyce and Sean Rodriguez eligible for free agency. Still, with another year remaining on his contract, Jaso could potentially be a trade candidate this winter or in Spring Training. Here’s more from around the league.

  • With Mark Teixeira retiring, the Yankees will have a new regular first baseman next season for the first time since Teixeira’s arrival in 2009, Chad Jennings of Lohud.com writes. GM Brian Cashman says the Yankees’ default approach next season will be to go with younger options at first. “[W]ithout having advance notice on what becomes available and what gets presented to you in various concepts – I would that that would be the way that we like to approach this going into Spring Training of next year,” he says. “Let the kids get a shot at it.” Greg Bird, Tyler Austin and Rob Refsnyder could all get opportunities at the position. Bird is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League after having missed the 2016 season due to a shoulder injury. If he proves he’s healthy, one would think he would have the inside track on playing time after batting .261/.343/.529 in his first 178 big-league plate appearances in 2016.
  • Top Cubs executive Theo Epstein sees parallels between the organization he currently runs and the one he led while with the Red Sox, Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald writes. Epstein’s Cubs made their first playoff run last season but were ousted by the Mets in the NLCS. His first playoff team in Boston fell in the ALCS to the other New York franchise in 2003. The next year, of course, the Red Sox won their first World Series since 1918. “I’ve had some flashbacks here and there. First few days of the offseason last year, after getting knocked out by the Mets, definitely felt like the same kind of galvanizing time that we had in Boston after Aaron Boone walked us off,” Epstein says. “Hopefully the same results: ’03 to ’04, ’15 to ’16.”
  • News that the Nevada Assembly has approved expenditures for a stadium designed to lure the Raiders from Oakland has no immediate impact on the Athletics, writes John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group. A’s owner Lew Wolff says he hasn’t heard anything about the possibility that the Raiders’ option to tell the A’s to find a new place to play should the Raiders find a home somewhere besides the Oakland Coliseum. “They were going to have to have a firm financial plan in place here if they were going to give us notice, and it doesn’t seem like that’s happening,” says Wolff. The A’s have been exploring other stadium options in Oakland, but for now, they don’t have any concrete plans to move.

Prospect Notes: Dodgers, Tebow, Skole

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Two of the best three prospects to graduate to the Majors this year are Dodgers products, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America writes. Shortstop Corey Seager and lefty Julio Urias rank Nos. 1 and 3 on BA’s list of the top ten graduated players, with only Trea Turner of the Nationals between them. Seager, of course, will almost certainly be the NL Rookie of the Year and is an NL MVP candidate after batting .308/.365/.512 while playing outstanding defense this season. Urias pitched just 77 innings for the Dodgers this season, but he only recently turned 20, and Glaser notes that his next step toward becoming a frontline starting pitcher is to build up his workload. Here are more quick notes on prospects.

  • The Mets’ signing of Tim Tebow to a minor league deal with a $100K bonus has received criticism lately, and it appears those criticisms could get louder, to judge from recent comments from a scout to NJ.com’s Randy Miller. “He’s pretty much a rookie ballplayer who’s 29. And I’m being nice,” said the scout, who watched Tebow in the Arizona Fall League. “He’s got a long ways to go. These guys are obviously way better than him.” The scout also criticized most elements of Tebow’s game, noting that Tebow struggled to hit fastballs and that Tebow might have to lose weight in order to play better defense. Tebow is currently hitting 0-for-9 with two walks in the AFL.
  • Former Rangers prospect and 2010 15th overall draft pick Jake Skole is on the opposite direction on Tebow’s path, heading from the diamond to the University of Georgia football program, according to Rusty Mansell of 247sports.com. Skole, who was born and raised in Georgia, will play a defensive position, although it’s unclear which one. As SportsDay’s Evan Grant notes, the Rangers released Skole in 2015, and he played in the Yankees organization this season. In parts of seven seasons in the minors, the former outfielder batted .227/.325/.330, topping out at Double-A and also receiving a 50-game PED suspension.

Diamondbacks Interested In Eddie Perez For Managerial Job

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The Diamondbacks have interest in Braves first base coach Eddie Perez for their managerial opening, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. Perez interviewed for the Braves managerial job that ultimately went to Brian Snitker, and he’s reportedly also recently attracted interest from the Rockies.

Perez spent 11 seasons as a catcher in the big leagues, spending much of that time working as Greg Maddux’s personal catcher in Atlanta. He also played a season apiece for the Indians and Brewers. He has worked as a coach in the Braves organization since 2006, and has managed in the Venezuelan Winter League.

We haven’t heard much about who will replace Chip Hale as the Diamondbacks’ manager, and perhaps for good reason — departing along with Hale was general manager Dave Stewart, and the Snakes have yet to fill their GM job. One would think the Diamondbacks would hire a GM first before hiring a manager. Involving a new GM in a managerial hiring process would help ensure that the GM and manager are a good match for one another — a GM and manager who don’t work well together can cause problems, as we’ve seen lately with Jeff Bridich and Walt Weiss in Colorado, and before that with Jerry Dipoto and Mike Scioscia in Los Angeles. Hiring a manager before hiring a GM could make the GM opening less attractive for highly qualified candidates, which is potentially a serious issue for the Diamondbacks, who might already have a hard time attracting such candidates given how short their last two GMs’ tenures have been.

Of course, it’s possible the Diamondbacks’ search for a GM (or a head of baseball operations) is further along than has previously been reported. Arizona has already been connected to Nationals exec Mike Rizzo (although the Nationals have denied Rizzo is a serious candidate), Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo, former Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, MLB senior VP Kim Ng and a variety of candidates with ties to the Diamondbacks organization. Former Blue Jays and Dodgers exec Alex Anthopoulos and Rays VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom have already indicated they’re not interested.

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