Archives for 2018

NL Notes: Marlins, Brewers, Yu, Cards, Mets

By Connor Byrne | February 11, 2018 at 12:42pm CDT

The Marlins could add a veteran outfielder within the next week or so, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, who names free agents Melky Cabrera, Jon Jay and Jose Bautista as possibilities (though Jay isn’t atop their list, Frisaro notes). Miami is indeed “exploring” signing someone to a major league contract, according to president Michael Hill. Doing so would put the Marlins over the 40-man roster limit, but they’re “prepared to” jettison a player if necessary, per Hill. Notably, all of Cabrera, Jay and Bautista either have ties to Marlins decision-makers or Florida. Cabrera played with Marlins part-owner Derek Jeter with the Yankees from 2006-09, and manager Don Mattingly was on New York’s coaching staff during a portion of that stretch. Jay is a Miami native, meanwhile, and Bautista resides in the state. Any of the three would immediately become the most established outfielder on a rebuilding Marlins team that has traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna in separate deals this winter.

Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Deal

By Connor Byrne | February 11, 2018 at 10:27am CDT

Unfortunately for those who follow baseball, the most popular topic in the sport this offseason has been the historically slow free-agent market. Upward of 100 players remain without contracts as spring training nears, but the good news is that the top available veteran finally came off the board Saturday.

The six-year, $126MM agreement the Cubs reached with right-hander Yu Darvish will hopefully lead to a flurry of signings in the near future. Regardless of how the majors’ other 29 teams react, it likely concludes the offseason heavy lifting for Cubs president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, who have added Darvish, two other starters (Tyler Chatwood and the injured Drew Smyly) and a pair of established relievers (Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek) to a club that ruled the National League Central in each of the previous two years.

Even without Darvish, the Cubs probably would have entered 2018 as the popular pick to win the division, though arguments could have been made for either the rival Brewers or Cardinals to seriously challenge for the crown. Both Milwaukee and St. Louis have been active this offseason after nearly making the playoffs last year. As things stand, though, they’re clearly looking up at a Cubs team with a set rotation (Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood) and an enviable group of position players. There was speculation earlier in the offseason that Chicago would deal from its lineup and/or farm system to boost the front of its rotation, but bringing in Darvish officially took that possibility out of play.

Along with retaining their position players and prospects, there are other other obvious benefits to picking up Darvish, including that he’s a tremendous starter who should boost the Cubs’ World Series chances in the coming years. The towering flamethrower, who emigrated from Japan in 2012, generally thrived with the Rangers and Dodgers, and there’s little reason to expect he’ll fail in Chicago in the near term. Speaking of the Dodgers, they rank as arguably the prominent concern in the NL for the Cubs (with Darvish’s help, they upended Chicago in the NLCS last season), so pilfering the 31-year-old from LA makes the signing all the more satisfying for Chicago. Plus, because Darvish was part of a midseason trade and wasn’t eligible for an offseason qualifying offer, reeling him in won’t cost the Cubs anything in draft-pick compensation or international bonus pool money.

With Darvish now in the mix, the Cubs will say goodbye to free agent Jake Arrieta, who did receive a QO after the season. When he heads elsewhere, Chicago will nab a pick after the second round of this year’s draft in return. Of course, even though Darvish is more hyped than Arrieta and will likely end up with the bigger guarantee of the two this winter, some may prefer the latter. The soon-to-be 32-year-old Arrieta wasn’t great last season, when he alarmingly lost some velocity, but he has been the more successful of the two in recent years. During his run as a Cub from 2014-17, Arrieta ranked third among starters in ERA (2.67), fifth in fWAR (18.5) and collected a Cy Young Award (2015).

Even if you’d rather have Darvish than Arrieta, the contract comes with some risk for the Cubs (which you’d expect with all big-money accords). Specifically, it’s in the form of an opt-out clause after the 2019 season. If Darvish pitches well enough over the next two years to vacate the deal in favor of another trip to the market, his departure would create a sizable hole for a Chicago team that hasn’t had great success at developing starters during the Epstein era, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently detailed (subscription required).

On the other hand, should he go downhill during the next two years and stick with his current contract, it could leave the Cubs with another expensive, declining veteran to join Lester (guaranteed $25MM after 2019, including a $10MM buyout for 2021) and outfielder Jason Heyward (guaranteed $86MM from 2020-23). The Cubs took the opt-out risk on Heyward when they signed him to an $184MM contract prior to 2016, when he was one of the sport’s foremost all-around players. Since then, his offensive game has gone in the tank, making it unlikely he’ll leave when he’s allowed to after next season or potentially at the end of the 2019 campaign.

To the Cubs’ credit, the $126MM guarantee looks quite reasonable for Darvish, and at $21MM per year, it’s palatable from a luxury tax standpoint. During a normal winter, Darvish may have ended up with a much wealthier contract. In fact, at the start of what has since turned into a bizarre offseason, MLBTR predicted a six-year, $160MM payday for Darvish, while former FanGraphs writer Dave Cameron forecast an even richer figure ($168MM) over the same term. All things considered, then, it seems the Cubs made out rather well with this move – one they hope will help guide them back to World Series glory in 2018. What are your thoughts?

(Poll link for App users)

Grade The Cubs' Yu Darvish Signing

B 39.32% (10,574 votes)

A 32.83% (8,829 votes)

C 18.38% (4,942 votes)

D 5.22% (1,405 votes)

F 4.25% (1,143 votes)

Total Votes: 26,893

AL Notes: Orioles, McHugh, Indians, Brantley, White Sox

By Connor Byrne | February 11, 2018 at 8:47am CDT

The Orioles have inquired about the availability of Astros right-hander Collin McHugh, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. Although McHugh could be the odd man out of a loaded Houston rotation this year, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the reigning champions aren’t in a rush to trade him. Nevertheless, with multiple holes in their rotation and a reported unwillingness to spend big to address their staff, it makes sense that the Orioles are interested in McHugh. After all, the 30-year-old has been a quality starter with the Astros since 2014 and is under arbitration control at affordable prices through 2019. He’ll earn in the neighborhood of $5MM this season.

Here’s more from the American League…

Indians outfielder Michael Brantley’s status for Opening Day is up in the air, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com suggests on Twitter. Brantley underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle in October, which came on the heels of a 90-game season for the 30-year-old. It was the second straight abbreviated campaign for Brantley, who missed all but 11 games in 2016 on account of right shoulder issues. To Brantley’s credit, he fared respectably across 375 plate appearances last year (.299/.357/.444), leading the Indians to exercise his $12MM option for 2018 early in the offseason.
Aside from keeping Brantley and signing Yonder Alonso, the Indians haven’t spent much this winter. Regarding the Tribe’s quiet offseason, one team’s vice president told ESPN’s Buster Olney, “They’re not spending, and that probably means they feel like they’re overextended [financially].” Even though the Indians have been among baseball’s elite in recent years, drawing fans to Progressive Field has still been a challenge. Thanks in part to that, Olney posits that small-market Cleveland may have difficulty maintaining its relatively high payroll going forward, which could soon force the team to engage in a sell-off similar to the one Pittsburgh has orchestrated this winter. The Indians will probably lose top relievers Andrew Miller and Cody Allen to free agency next offseason, observes Olney, who writes that rising prices for their under-control core players could make it tough for them to adequately address other areas of their roster.
The White Sox have hired Dave Duncan as a pitching consultant, Scott Merkin of MLB.com tweets. This will be the second stint with the White Sox for the 72-year-old Duncan, who was previously on the team’s coaching staff from 1983-86. He’ll now join pitching coach Don Cooper as the second highly respected pitching guru under Chicago’s employ. Duncan is perhaps best known for his run at St. Louis’ pitching coach from 1996-2011, a period in which the Cardinals won a pair of World Series titles and regularly boasted one of the league’s best staffs.

Quick Hits: Odorizzi, Angels, Bauer, Tribe, Suspensions, McKenry

By Connor Byrne | February 10, 2018 at 11:09pm CDT

The Angels are among many teams that have been in talks with the Rays regarding right-hander Jake Odorizzi, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Odorizzi would be the second noteworthy offseason addition to an Angels staff that welcomed potential ace Shohei Ohtani back in December. He’d also offer the Angels a more proven option than just about all of their current starters, with the exception of Garrett Richards and arguably Matt Shoemaker. Although the 27-year-old Odorizzi is coming off a disappointing, injury-shortened season, he has fared respectability in his career – 705 1/3 innings of 3.83 ERA/4.23 FIP ball – and comes with two years of affordable arbitration control. Odorizzi will head to an arb hearing Monday to determine whether he’ll make $6.05MM or $6.35MM in 2018, Topkin notes.

West Notes: Dodgers, Yu, Rangers, Gomez, Giants

By Connor Byrne | February 10, 2018 at 9:54pm CDT

Before Yu Darvish agreed to join the Cubs on a six-year, $126MM contract Saturday, the Dodgers joined them with a willingness to offer six years, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). However, the value of Los Angeles’ proposal was worth less (closer to $100MM) and contingent on the team jettisoning money via trade, Heyman adds. Unsurprisingly, LA couldn’t find a taker for at least a portion of its worst contract – outfielder Matt Kemp’s two years and $43.5MM – which helped lead to Darvish’s exit in free agency.

FA/Trade Rumblings: Yanks, Lynn, Odorizzi, O’s, D-backs, D. Santana

By Connor Byrne | February 10, 2018 at 8:33pm CDT

The Yankees, continuing to seek help for their rotation, have “monitored” free agent right-hander Lance Lynn’s marketplace this offseason, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. However, a Lynn signing may be difficult for the Yankees because of their desire to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018. They have around $15MM to spend, Morosi notes, and Lynn’s next deal could pay him somewhere near that figure on an annual basis. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lynn would receive $14MM per year.

More from New York and a few other major league destinations:

The Yankees have also shown offseason interest in Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi, as have the AL East rival Orioles, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Odorizzi would represent an affordable option for the Yankees, Orioles or any of the other teams known to be pursuing him, as the 27-year-old will earn a bit north of $6MM in 2018 – his second-last year of arbitration eligibility. Although, given that Odorizzi’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, it’s debatable whether he’d be a good fit for either New York or Baltimore – both of which play their home games at home run-friendly venues.
The Diamondbacks and Brewers discussed outfielder Domingo Santana earlier this offseason, but the teams couldn’t work out a deal, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Milwaukee was seeking starting pitching in return for Santana, per Cafardo, which you’d expect for a team that has been on the lookout for rotation help throughout the offseason. The D-backs, meanwhile, want another outfielder and have attempted to re-sign the top hitter available in free agency, J.D. Martinez, making their interest in Santana understandable. Santana won’t even be eligible for arbitration until next winter, so he’d obviously make far less of a dent in Arizona’s payroll than JDM.
In addition to the previously reported Yanks, the Mets asked the Diamondbacks about utilityman Brandon Drury at some point this offseason, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Drury is still with the D-backs, though a deal could still come together before the season, Piecoro suggests. It probably won’t be with the Mets, though, considering they’ve signed third baseman Todd Frazier, outfielder Jay Bruce and infielder Jose Reyes in recent weeks.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Yu Darvish Deal

By Connor Byrne | February 10, 2018 at 7:21pm CDT

It took over three months, but the premier free agent in this year’s class finally came off the board Saturday. Right-hander Yu Darvish agreed to join the Cubs on a six-year, $126MM guarantee that includes an opt-out clause after 2019. As you’d expect, a bevy of media reactions to the agreement have come in over the course of the day. Here’s a look at several…

When the offseason began in November, Darvish “wasn’t really” on Chicago’s radar, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports on Twitter. However, it seems the Cubs benefited from this winter’s slow-moving free-agent market in this case, as it helped lead to a lower-than-expected price tag for Darvish and a major splash for the North Siders. Darvish went into the winter seeking an accord along the lines of Stephen Strasburg’s (seven years, $175MM) or new teammate Jon Lester’s (six years, $155MM), Patrick Mooney of The Athletic details (subscription required).
While there’s a well-known fondness between Darvish and the Rangers, with whom he has spent the majority of his career, Texas was “not even close” to landing him, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram hears. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News adds that Texas didn’t make an offer to Darvish, and the club wouldn’t even have been willing to guarantee him $75MM in total if it did. The Rangers have a glaring need for a front-end starter, but they’re not close enough to contention to splurge on one, Grant writes. Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, who has a good relationship with Darvish, spoke highly of the 31-year-old on Saturday. “I am very happy for Yu and hope he gets everything he wants,” Daniels said (via Wilson). “He will go down as one of the best pitchers in Rangers history. I expect he’s going to be very good wherever he goes.”
The Dodgers, Darvish’s other ex-team, made him an offer, but it fell short of the Cubs’, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times report. Contrarily, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets that LA was “said to have offered in the same ballpark” as Chicago. Although, signing Darvish would have made it difficult for the Dodgers to achieve their goal of staying under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018.
Likewise, tax concerns stood in the way of a Yankees-Darvish union. New York never even made Darvish an offer, Rosenthal tweets.
The small-market Twins aggressively went after Darvish this winter, even meeting with him in Texas at some point, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Their offer to Darvish was for at least five years and $100MM, according to Heyman (Twitter link). The Twins’ courtship of Darvish went for naught, though, perhaps thanks to their dislike for opt-out clauses and a wariness toward giving him a sixth year, writes Berardino, who adds that they could now look to top available starter Jake Arrieta. On the trade front, Rays righties Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi remain on Minnesota’s radar, relays Berardino, though he suggests the Twins would have to give up too much for the former. Meanwhile, Rosenthal reports that there’s a belief among rival executives the Twins could still add a starter via both free agency and the trade market. Along with Odorizzi, he lists free agent Alex Cobb and Astros righty Collin McHugh as hurlers who have drawn Minnesota’s interest.
The upstart Brewers were part of the Darvish derby, too, and the belief is that they also submitted a proposal of at least five years and $100MM, Heyman tweets. However, Rosenthal hears that Milwaukee’s offer “was not as competitive as reports indicated.” Further, Rosenthal suggests that the Brewers may have primarily been in the running just to drive up the price for the NL Central rival Cubs. Regardless, with Darvish now out of the mix, Odorizzi and the Athletics’ Jharel Cotton are trade possibilities for the Brew Crew, according to Rosenthal.
In addition to the previously listed Twins and Brewers, the Dodgers and the Phillies are still targeting starters in the wake of the Darvish deal, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Philadelphia is aggressively pursuing a short-term addition, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman, Jaime Garcia and Jason Vargas are all possibilities, Feinsand adds.
Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required) has mixed feelings on the Darvish pact. While it “appears to be a bargain salary,” Law has reservations about the length, contending that it’s one or two years too long, and he doesn’t regard Darvish “a pure ace.” Darvish has become too reliant on his cutter and not reliant enough on his slider, which has led to vulnerability against left-handed hitters, Law observes. However, Darvish may have “some untapped potential right now” if he leans more on his slider, per Law, who at least sees him as a significant near-term upgrade for the Cubs.

Marlins, Astros Discussing J.T. Realmuto

By Connor Byrne | February 10, 2018 at 6:05pm CDT

Count the reigning World Series champion Astros among the most serious suitors for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto. Houston and Miami have discussed the backstop, according to SiriusXM’s Craig Mish, who adds that the Marlins have requested high-end outfield prospect Kyle Tucker in return. The Astros haven’t ruled out dealing Tucker, Mish reports (Twitter link).

Realmuto would be the second major trade acquisition of the winter for the Astros, who previously dipped into their pool of young talent to pick up right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates. Despite that move, the Astros’ farm system remains in the majors’ top 10, according to Baseball America, which regards the 21-year-old Tucker as their second-best prospect and the majors’ 15th-ranked farmhand. MLB.com (No. 8) FanGraphs (No. 10), Baseball Prospectus (No. 20) and ESPN’s Keith Law (No. 21) also think highly of the lefty-swinging Tucker, who ascended to the Double-A level in 2017 and slashed .265/.325/.512 across 318 plate appearances.

Should the Marlins land Tucker, he’d become arguably the premier prospect in a system that has climbed from dead last to 19th in Baseball America’s rankings since the beginning of the offseason. Of course, the Marlins’ improved farm is the result of an aggressive major league teardown that has come during a payroll-slashing campaign by new owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter. The Marlins have already dealt star outfielders Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, not to mention second baseman Dee Gordon, leaving Realmuto as the face of a team that seems unlikely to contend in the near future.

The 26-year-old Realmuto, sensing Miami is more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth in 2018, has made it known he’d like to follow Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna and Gordon out the door. Given that he wants to play for a contender, going to Houston would surely satisfy Realmuto, and it would give the club a potential long-term solution behind the plate. While the Astros got solid production from catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis in 2017, the two 30-somethings could become free agents next winter. Moreover, Gattis will primarily occupy the DH spot this year, leaving the unproven, out-of-options Max Stassi as the Astros’ projected No. 2 catcher.

Unlike Stassi, Realmuto has done plenty to establish himself in the majors. He truly broke out in 2016 and has since accounted for 7.2 fWAR, trailing only the Giants’ Buster Posey and the Yankees’ Gary Sanchez in that category among catchers. Most of Realmuto’s value has come from his bat, as the righty-swinger combined for a quality .290/.337/.440 line across 1,124 plate appearances from 2016-17.

While there have been questions about Realmuto’s defense (his reviews as a pitch framer have been mixed), both his bat and long-term affordability combine to make him extremely valuable, which has led to offseason interest from contenders such as the Astros and Nationals. Realmuto is set to play his first of three potential arbitration-eligible seasons in 2018, during which he’ll make a relatively modest $2.9MM.

Braves Defeat Mike Foltynewicz In Arbitration

By Kyle Downing | February 10, 2018 at 4:27pm CDT

Right-hander Mike Foltynewicz has lost his arbitration case against the Braves, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. He’ll take home $2.2MM in 2018, his first of four potential arbitration years, falling just short of the $2.3MM he requested. The salary comes in $500K shy of the $2.7MM figure projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz.

The defeat for the 26-year-old Foltynewicz comes on the heels of his third season with the Braves, who acquired him in 2015 as part of a deal with the Astros that centered on Evan Gattis. A former promising prospect in Houston, the hard-throwing Foltynewicz has emerged as a competent rotation piece with the Braves over the past couple years. Dating back to 2016, the 6-foot-4, 220-pounder has made 51 appearances (50 starts) and pitched to a 4.58 ERA/4.29 FIP over 277 1/3 innings. He tossed a career-high 154 frames in 2017 and recorded a 4.79 ERA/4.33 FIP, 8.36 K/9 and 3.45 BB/9.

Now that Folty’s case is settled, the Braves’ work on the arbitration front is done for the offseason, as MLBTR’s Arb Tracker shows.

A’s Defeat Kendall Graveman In Arbitration

By Kyle Downing | February 10, 2018 at 4:22pm CDT

Kendall Graveman has lost his arbitration case against the Athletics, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports via Twitter. Though he filed for $2.6MM in his first trip through the arb process (which incidentally also happened to be what MLBTR’s arbitration model projected for him), he’ll instead make the $2.3MM salary that Oakland filed for.

The 27-year-old ground ball artist came to Oakland as one of the pieces in the trade that sent Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays. He’s owns a career ERA of 4.11 across 411 2/3 major league innings spanning 71 starts with Oakland and five relief appearances for Toronto. His lifetime record stands at 22-24.

Likely working against Graveman in the arbitration process is his lack of strikeouts. The righty’s K/9 over the past three seasons with the A’s stands at a paltry 5.64, a figure that ranks fourth-worst in baseball among qualified pitchers during that time span. Of course, he made up for that somewhat by posting a 51.3% ground ball rate that falls within MLB’s top 20. But arbitration panels don’t take that into account the way they do strikeouts.

Graveman’s case was Oakland’s only one to go to trial. Now that it’s been settled, the team’s arbitration salaries are all fully resolved for the 2018 season.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Headlines

Archives for 2018

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect