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Latest On Madison Bumgarner

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DEC. 10: It’s looking increasingly probable that Bumgarner will either reach or approach his $100MM-plus goal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. “Many teams” are in the race, per Heyman, who tweets that the Twins “are thought to be” heavily in pursuit.

DEC. 9, 5:11pm: The Giants, Bumgarner’s lone team to date, are among his suitors and will meet with his representation this week, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. “We’re involved in those discussions,” Zaidi said. “We’re planning to meet with his representatives this week and they have other meetings scheduled, too. That’s what happens when a player is a free agent, they’re going to explore all their options. Guys are looking for different things, looking for maybe a particular geography, maybe a team in a specific part of their competitive cycle.” Interestingly, although they’re not known for their spending, the division-rival Diamondbacks are also in the mix, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The Angels are also part of it, though whether they’re aggressive in pursuing Bumgarner could depend on if they land Gerrit Cole.

10:46am: Representatives of southpaw Madison Bumgarner have informed interested organizations that he’s looking to top nine figures over five years with his first free agent contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Whether he’ll get there remains to be seen.

Zack Wheeler just blew past the $100M mark, but MLBTR predicted he’d substantially out-earn Bumgarner. While Bumgarner has unquestionably accomplished more in his career to date, the younger Wheeler seems on the upswing. We predicted Bumgarner would land at four years and $72MM, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him approach or even reach the $100MM level if interest soars to five years.

The question facing MLB teams is whether they believe Bumgarner can sustain his excellent results despite less-than-exceptional peripheral numbers. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his heyday, but Bumgarner’s velocity has stabilized in the 91 to 92 mph range. He got swings and misses as often as ever in the just-completed campaign after experiencing a somewhat worrisome 2018 downturn. But Bumgarner hasn’t drawn quite as many strikeouts and hasn’t limited the long ball as successfully as he once did, leading ERA estimators to dim on his value.

Bumgarner stands as an interesting market bellwether. Teams won’t pay for his past performance; those days are over. But will they put a big dollar value on his still-significant anticipated future contributions? And will his history of stepping up in the postseason help his cause? Bumgarner is still just thirty years of age and got back to his 200-inning ways in 2019. And even the post-injury version of the lefty still hasn’t finished a season having allowed four earned runs per nine innings.

There are a variety of teams with interest, though to what level isn’t yet evident. The Twins, White Sox, and Reds have been linked clearly to Bumgarner, while the Reds, Cardinals, and Yankees have also been cited as possibilities. It’ll cost the winning bidder draft compensation to add Bumgarner, which could temper the willingness to add yet more dollars and/or years to an offer.

Adam Jones Signs With Japan’s Orix Buffaloes

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Longtime major league outfielder Adam Jones’ time in the bigs may have just drawn to a close. Jones announced on Twitter that he’s signing with Japan’s Orix Buffaloes. He inked a two-year, $8MM contract with a club option for 2022, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The deal could max out at $15.5MM if Jones’ option is exercised and the CAA Sports client earns the $2MM in incentives that are part of the pact.

The fact that Jones is heading to Japan now means he’ll avoid a protracted stay on the open market. As a free agent last offseason, the 34-year-old Jones was a victim of a league that has become more and more averse to signing aging players to guaranteed contracts. Jones went without a deal for several months, finally inking a $3MM pact with the Diamondbacks.

Even though Jones jumped out to a great start in Arizona, his numbers and his playing time declined as the year progressed. He wound up turning in a .260/.313/.414 line (good for a below-average wRC+ of 87) with 16 home runs in 528 plate appearances. In the field, the former defensive standout earned negative marks for the fourth straight year (minus-4 DRS, minus-2.2 UZR).

Despite his subpar numbers, Jones’ lauded leadership skills were surely valued in Arizona. Major league teams could have considered signing him to act as a mentor to their younger players in 2020. However, he would have had to settle for either a low-paying big league contract or a minors agreement. As a result, Jones made the decision to head to Nippon Professional Baseball for a much larger payday.

If this is the last we’ve seen of Jones in the majors, he’ll be remembered as a standout with the Orioles for a significant portion of his career. Jones was the 37th overall pick of the Mariners in 2003, but they ultimately traded him to the Orioles in 2008 in a swap that blew up in Seattle’s face and couldn’t have worked out much better for Baltimore. Jones debuted as an Oriole in 2008, the beginning of an eminently successful 11-season run in which the former center fielder batted .279/.319/.459 with 263 home runs, 90 steals and 29.5 fWAR, earned five All-Star nods and won four Gold Gloves.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Exploring Outfield Trades, Pursuing Chirinos Reunion

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8:58pm: The Cardinals are also in the mix for Mazara, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. That jibes with their goal of acquiring a lefty-hitting outfielder.

6:17pm: The White Sox are “working hard to land” Mazara, as Jim Bowden of SiriusXM first reported. As for Chirinos, the Astros, Tigers, Rays and Pirates join the Rangers in the market for him, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

1:04pm: The Rangers have remained busy on the market, with MLB.com’s TR Sullivan reporting that the club is active on multiple fronts (Twitter links). While it stands to reason that the team is still considering moves in the rotation, the attention now is on the position player side after several notable pitching additions.

It has long seemed likely that the Rangers would explore possible swaps involving its existing outfielders. But the team now appears to be engaged in a somewhat dedicated manner. Sullivan says the intention is to “move one of their extra left-handed hitting outfielders,” with Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun, and Shin-Soo Choo named as possibilities.

That’s a highly varied group of players. Mazara is a mid-arbitration player that hasn’t turned the corner in the majors but remains quite youthful. Calhoun hasn’t had the same degree of opportunity (and hasn’t logged as much service) but showed well with the bat last year. He’s also still a question mark defensively, as is the aging Choo, who can still hit but isn’t worth the remainder of his big contract.

The Rangers are said to be chatting with the Diamondbacks about some of these players; the clubs were connected last night regarding Mazara. Evidently talks between the Rangers and Marlins didn’t advance. Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio tweets that the Fish were turned off by the asking price for Mazara, a former top prospect.

Meanwhile, there’s “mutual interest” in a new deal with backstop Robinson Chirinos. That’s rather an interesting development, considering the Texas organization surprisingly declined its option over him last fall. The replacement plan fell apart, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored, while Chirinos flourished with the cross-state Astros.

The 35-year-old Chirinos and the Rangers are amply familiar with one another, as he played with the team for six seasons. It seems the sides carry no ill will over the way things ended. The catching market has moved rather swiftly to this point, leaving Chirinos and Jason Castro as the top available options.

West Rumors: Castellanos, Rangers, MadBum, D-backs, Angels, Astros, Giants

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Outfielder Nicholas Castellanos has another suitor, as Texas has “checked in on” the slugging outfielder, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets. While upgrading at third base has been a focus for the Rangers, general manager Jon Daniels indicated they could make a splash elsewhere, per Grant. Signing Castellanos, who’s in line for a lucrative multiyear contract, would qualify. Adding him could also make it even more likely the Rangers move on from Nomar Mazara, who might be part of a trade as early as this week’s Winter Meetings.

Meanwhile, it’s becoming more likely the Rangers will not keep outfielder/designated hitter Hunter Pence in the fold, TR Sullivan of MLB.com reports. After signing a minor league contract last offseason, Pence enjoyed an improbable bounce-back campaign, even earning an All-Star nod, but it seems the soon-to-be 37-year-old will have to play elsewhere if he keeps his career going in 2020.

Here’s more from the game’s West divisions…

  • The Diamondbacks reportedly have interest in free-agent left-hander Madison Bumgarner, but it appears they’ll have to step it up if they’re going to reel in the longtime division rival. According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the Diamondbacks did make Bumgarner an offer “at some point,” but it was “light.” The 30-year-old seems to have his sights set on becoming the majors’ latest $100MM-plus pitcher, though it remains to be seen whether that’s realistic on his part.
  • The Angels appear poised to break the bank, evidenced by their interest in the likes of Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson, but they won’t necessarily limit their spending to one big-time performer. Rather, the club has the ability to fit in “multiple” new players who earn $20MM or more, general manager Billy Eppler declared (via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). In terms of adding payroll, the Angels helped their cause Tuesday when they got infielder Zack Cozart’s $12MM-plus salary off the books in a trade with San Francisco.
  • While payroll looks to be an issue for the Astros, they’re nonetheless hoping to address some needs of their own. President of baseball ops/GM Jeff Luhnow old Jake Kaplan of The Athletic and other reporters Tuesday that the reigning AL champions are seeking a catcher, a starter and one or more relievers. “I think the catching has been our top pursuit. But it doesn’t mean that it’s going to be the first one to get completed,” Luhnow said. The Astros’ top backstop from 2019, Robinson Chirinos, is currently among their free agents.
  • The Giants have interviewed Rachel Balkovec, the Yankees’ minor league roving hitting instructor, for a spot on their major league staff, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. However, it doesn’t look as if the Giants will hire Balkovec, Baggarly adds. The interview itself appears to be historic, though, as Baggarly notes it’s “believed” Balkovec is the first woman to discuss a uniformed role with a major league team.

Twins Sign Alex Avila

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DEC. 10: The Avila deal and the re-signing of Michael Pineda are now official, the Twins announced. They now have 37 players on their 40-man roster.

DEC. 6: The Twins have agreed to a one-year contract with free-agent catcher Alex Avila, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. The Excel Sports client will take home a $4.25MM guarantee on the new deal, per the report.

Alex Avila | Rob Schumacher/The Republic via USA TODAY NETWORK

Avila, 33 in January, is no stranger to the AL Central, having spent parts of eight seasons with the Tigers plus another year with the White Sox. He’ll give the Twins a left-handed-hitting complement to 2019 breakout star Mitch Garver and, ostensibly, replace Jason Castro, who seems likely to land a starting gig elsewhere in free agency.

The veteran Avila is somewhat of a divisive player, as some view his perennially low batting average and lofty strikeout totals as too detrimental to provide consistent value. Others will point to his sky-high walk rates and above-average power in suggesting that more traditional metrics undersell his value at the plate. Indeed, Avila had one of the game’s more bizarre stat lines in 2019 when he slashed .207/.353/.421 with a 17.9 percent walk rate (third among hitters with 200+ plate appearances) and a 33.2 percent strikeout rate (12th among that same subset of hitters).

Garver, 28, still stands out as the obvious starter in Minnesota after exploding with a .273/.365/.630 batting line and 31 home runs in 2019. Even if next year’s ball is corrected to be less conducive to home runs, the Twins assuredly want to plug Garver into the lineup as often as possible after a such a stout performance. He’ll see time against lefties and righties alike, but Avila will be a more than capable stand-in when Garver needs a breather and a righty is on the hill. For his career, Avila is a .241/.358/.417 hitter (15.3 BB%, 28.7 K%) when holding the platoon advantage, although his .212/.307/.311 career line against lefties is all one needs to see to steer him away from opposing southpaws. If Garver needs a day off when a left-hander is on the mound, the Twins could perhaps look to plus super-utility man Willians Astudillo and his right-handed bat into the lineup at catcher. Astudillo himself could’ve been deployed as a backup catcher in 2020, but in Avila, the Twins have found a drastically better source of on-base percentage and a better defensive option that allows Astudillo to continue on in a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none role.

Avila has long been adept at controlling the running game (career 30 percent caught-stealing rate), but he was particularly impressive in 2019 with Arizona. Although he was only a part-time catcher there as well, Avila nabbed 11 of the 21 men who attempted to run on him (52 percent), and he was 9-for-30 (30 percent) a year prior. Avila’s framing rated poorly in 2017, but the D-backs’ efforts to improve him in that regard were successful, as he was above-average in both his seasons with Arizona, per both FanGraphs and Statcast. Baseball Prospectus, meanwhile, rated him as one of the game’s best at blocking pitches in the dirt in 2019.

Minnesota still has substantial work to do this offseason — namely augmenting a rotation that currently looks too similar to its 2019 iteration — but adding Avila to the fold crosses a more minor need off the to-do list at a reasonable price point. The one-year term of the deal continues with the Derek Falvey/Thad Levine-led front office’s penchant for short-term investments as well, thus maintaining future payroll flexibility. If the Twins hope to truly bolster the rotation, they’ll probably need to eschew that preference, but for smaller-scale moves like this it’s sensible to minimize contractual length.

Astros Have Reportedly Considered Carlos Correa Trade

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Speaking with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and other reporters Tuesday, Astros president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow painted a somewhat bleak picture in regards to the team’s payroll. In Luhnow’s estimation, the Astros are going to have to clear out money if they want to acquire a top-end starting pitcher this offseason. With that in mind, it looks more likely than ever that they’ll be saying goodbye to the No. 1 player on the market, right-hander Gerrit Cole, who teamed with Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke to comprise an incredibly formidable trio in 2019.

Back in early October, before the Astros began what proved to be an American League-winning run through the playoffs, owner Jim Crane indicated he’d like to avoid going past the $208MM luxury tax in 2020. However, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of FanGraphs and Roster Resource, their luxury-tax payroll for next season is already over $231MM. As a result, the Astros could be more likely to shave payroll than make any major additions this winter.

The Astros would cut some money by trading star shortstop Carlos Correa, who’s due to earn an estimated $7.4MM via arbitration next year. Dealing the 25-year-old sounds like crazy talk, especially when you’re a championship-level team like Houston, but it’s not off the table. The club has “entertained” the possibility, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). As of now, though, no deal appears imminent.

With the top free-agent shortstop, Didi Gregorius, now off the board, it stands to reason any shortstop-needy club would (or has) called the Astros in regards to Correa. In trading Correa, though, the Astros would be selling low after an injury-limited year and leaving themselves with questions at short (of course, they did do just fine without him for a large portion of 2019). For now, Correa’s one of several key Astros who’s due to reach free agency over the next couple years, which could hasten either a trade or an extension. Correa, Verlander and Greinke are under control through 2021, while first baseman Yuli Gurriel and outfielders George Springer and Michael Brantley are slated to hit the open market after next season.

FA Rumors: Ozuna, Braves, J. Castro, Stammen, Peraza, Grandy

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The Braves are interested in free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. This isn’t the first connection between the sides, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last month that the Braves were one of the clubs in on Ozuna. Now, though, it seems the Braves are willing to aggressively pursue the 29-year-old qualifying offer recipient. In the event third baseman Josh Donaldson leaves Atlanta for another team, the Braves would regard Ozuna as a viable fallback option, Morosi suggests. MLBTR predicts Ozuna will reel in a three-year, $45MM guarantee, and if he lands anywhere near that neighborhood, he should fall well short of Donaldson’s next contract. That said, replacing Donaldson’s bat with Ozuna’s would still leave a sizable hole at third base for the Braves.

Here’s the latest on several other free agents…

  • The Angels, Astros, and Rangers are among the organizations with interest in backstop Jason Castro, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). With Yasmani Grandal and Travis d’Arnaud off the market, the 32-year-old Castro could be the best catcher left on the board. The pitch-framing savant’s coming off a strong season in Minnesota, where he batted .232/.332/.435 in 275 plate appearances and earned positive grades in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.
  • Several teams appear to be in the market for reliever Craig Stammen. The right-hander’s most recent team, the Padres, as well as the Astros, Diamondbacks, Reds, White Sox, Blue Jays and Cardinals have all expressed interest, per Morosi (Twitter links). Stammen, whom MLBTR projects for a two-year, $10MM guarantee, has put together a strong career divided between Washington and San Diego. The 35-year-old logged a 3.29 ERA with 8.01 K/9, 1.65 BB/9 and a 50.8 percent groundball rate in 82 innings last season as a Padre.
  • The Reds are one of the teams with interest in Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama, president of baseball operations Dick Williams revealed (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Clubs have until Dec. 19 to sign Akiyama, who had an impressive run with the Seibu Lions from 2011-19. It’s unclear what a potential Reds-Akiyama union would mean for Nick Senzel, their starting center fielder last season. Senzel could perhaps move to the corner outfield, which does look like a need area for the Reds.
  • The Cardinals are interested in re-signing backup catcher Matt Wieters, according to general manager Michael Girsch (via Goold). Whether it’s Wieters or someone else, the team seems intent on adding a veteran to play behind Yadier Molina. Wieters could wind up in Oakland if he doesn’t go back to St. Louis, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Athletics have shown interest in the 33-year-old to back up Sean Murphy. This is the second straight offseason in which Wieters has landed on the A’s radar.
  • The Orioles and Indians are two of the four teams that have shown interest in infielder Jose Peraza, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Reds non-tendered Peraza last week on the heels of an unproductive season, but he’s only a year removed from a respectable showing. The 25-year-old’s also controllable via arbitration through 2022.
  • Although he hopes to play next season, there has been little interest in outfielder Curtis Granderson, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The soon-to-be 39-year-old Granderson is a revered clubhouse presence who has enjoyed an outstanding career, but he’s a free agent at an inopportune time. Granderson struggled to a .183/.281/.356 line with minus-1.4 fWAR in 363 plate trips with the Marlins last season.

Angels Have Shown Interest In Josh Donaldson

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Continuing their desire to land at least one of the premier free agents on the board, the Angels have shown interest in third baseman Josh Donaldson. They’ve “checked in on” the 34-year-old star, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.

It’s now known that the Angels have thrown their hat in the ring on the two best third basemen available on the open market. A report from earlier Tuesday indicated they’ve also expressed interest in Anthony Rendon, who figures to cost far more than Donaldson. Thanks in part to the age difference between the two (Rendon won’t turn 30 until June), Rendon will significantly out-earn Donaldson. MLBTR predicts Rendon for a seven-year, $235MM contract and Donaldson for a three-year, $75MM payday. However, the chances of Donaldson reeling in a four-year pact appear to be increasing after an excellent season in Atlanta for the former American League MVP.

While the Angels’ focus is on signing the No. 1 free agent available, right-hander Gerrit Cole, there’s clearly room for a major splash at the hot corner. They traded Zack Cozart to the Giants on Tuesday, thus ridding themselves of a third base option and (perhaps more importantly) just over $12MM in payroll room. And there’s not necessarily a proven performer at the position left on the roster. David Fletcher’s a solid player, but adding a different third baseman could enable him to focus on second in 2020. Matt Thaiss didn’t hit much during his initial major league action in 2019, meanwhile, and save for a magical few months last season, Tommy La Stella doesn’t carry a long track record as an above-average big leaguer.

Padres Rumors: Merrifield, Hedges, Mejia

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The Padres traded second baseman Luis Urias to the Brewers a couple weeks ago, and now they’re attempting to replace him. To that end, they’ve “been trying to” swing a deal for Royals second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.

The soon-to-be 31-year-old Merrifield has been the subject of trade rumors for a while, but even though they haven’t been in contention, the Royals have refused to trade him thus far. Merrifield’s a favorite of Royals general manager Dayton Moore, though (per Feinsand) he admitted that the team must “be open-minded” in regards to any potential deal.

If the Royals are holding out for a haul of young talent for Merrifield, no team may be better equipped to put together a package than the farm-rich Padres. And finding a way to reel in Merrifield would be the latest sign the Padres are serious about breaking their long-running playoff drought in 2020.

On paper, Merrifield would be an enormous upgrade over the Urias-Ian Kinsler–Greg Garcia trio the Padres primarily relied on at second last season. Merrifield’s coming off an All-Star showing in which he slashed .302/.348/.463 with 16 home runs, 20 stolen bases and 2.9 fWAR in 735 plate appearances. Adding to Merrifield’s appeal, he’s only due to earn $15.25 through 2022 (including a buyout for ’23). However, that affordability could further encourage Kansas City to keep Merrifield.

Beyond second base, catcher is among the positions the Padres are focused on dealing with right now. They remain motivated to trade backstop Austin Hedges, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Though the team continues to provide public statements of support, it’s working to find a “new regular starter” behind the dish. Francisco Mejia is also still available, per Acee, though he’s less likely to be dealt. Trouble is for the Friars, it is difficult to identify quality backstops that could realistically be acquired. Willson Contreras of the Cubs is perhaps the most intriguing possibility.

Giants Sign Kevin Gausman

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The Giants have signed right-hander Kevin Gausman, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic was among those to report. It’s a one-year, $9MM contract with up to $1MM in performance bonuses, the team announced. Gausman is a client of Tidal Sports Group.

If he maxes out his bonuses, Gausman will end up with almost the same payday he’d have received had the Reds retained him for 2020. They moved on from Gausman at last week’s non-tender deadline in lieu of paying him a projected $10.6MM next season. However, that doesn’t mean Gausman performed poorly as a member of the Reds, who claimed him off waivers from the Braves in August. On the contrary, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Gausman pitched well over a limited sample of 22 1/3 innings, evidenced by a 4.03 ERA with tremendous strikeout and walk rates of 11.7 and 2.0, respectively.

Of course, Gausman only became a Red because he had trouble preventing runs as a Brave. He put up an ugly 6.19 ERA across 80 innings as a starter before working almost exclusively as a reliever for the Reds. That said, the Atlanta version of Gausman did manage a respectable 4.20 FIP with a similarly solid 9.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. And before Gausman’s career experienced a downturn in Atlanta, he recorded several quality seasons as a starter for the Orioles, who selected him fourth overall in the 2012 draft.

Now that he’s on the fourth team of his career, Gausman will presumably return to a role as a full-time starter. The Giants – whose longtime No. 1 starter, Madison Bumgarner, remains a free agent – are sorely lacking in that department. Unless the Giants re-sign Bumgarner or add another veteran, the hard-throwing Gausman, who has averaged just under 95 mph on his fastball during his time in the majors, looks as if he’ll team with Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija as the elder statesmen of the group. At least for now, Gausman’s guarantee is the largest one president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has doled out since he joined the organization last winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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