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Archives for July 2019

Red Sox Among Teams With Interest In Zack Wheeler

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The Red Sox and Mets are engaged in preliminary talks regarding New York righty Zack Wheeler, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Boston is said to be targeting a rotation addition after deciding to utilize Nathan Eovaldi in the bullpen.

Importantly, there’s no indication that a deal is close. And the Sox are far from alone in pursuit of Wheeler. The Braves, Brewers, and Yankees were all connected to him recently. Andy Martino of SNY.tv suggests that the Cubs are another possibility, though it’s unclear whether the clubs are in contact.

It’s unsurprising to hear tell of a robust slate of possible suitors for a pitcher who figures to be among the top rental arms available. That’s especially true given that Wheeler is earning just under $6MM this season, making him amply affordable for just about any team.

The salary factor is of particular note with regard to the Boston organization. While the club is one of the game’s most consistent spenders and is coming off of the bonanza of a World Series win, it is also walking a financial tightrope this year and doesn’t plan to extend its payroll much further.

It’s also notable to see the Fenway denizens connected at this stage to a top rental piece. The club isn’t exactly in prime position after a ho-hum start to the season. There’s a nine-game gap in the division, which is paced by a Yankees club that seems poised to make more impactful additions, and serious competition even for a Wild Card birth.

What’s most interesting of all here, perhaps, is the potential for a quick and active bidding situation. The Red Sox and Yankees are obviously aware of the implications of one or the other landing a particular player. With the Sox said to be looking to strike a relatively quick deal to bring in rotation help, they could conceivably force the market to move. If the Yanks see Wheeler as their preferred target, they might need to act decisively, setting up an intriguing dynamic involving the club’s chief on-field rival in Boston and its sole market competitor across the way in Queens.

Martino says the Mets “have shifted into a more aggressive sell mode,” which makes sense given their all-but-hopeless spot in the standings (ten games under .500, 13.5 out of the division lead, second-to-worst record in the National League). It may well behoove the team to get the jump on marketing its rental pieces, Wheeler in particular, while other teams try to wait until the last moment. But committing even to a limited sell-off — particularly this early, and especially if it involves the Yankees — would certainly represent a bitter pill for ownership and rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

What’s Wrong With Robinson Cano?

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We’re on the eve of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game, an event second baseman Robinson Cano has received eight invitations to since his career began in 2005. The former Yankee and Mariner is clearly one of the most accomplished second basemen in baseball history. However, in 2019 – his first season as a Met – the 36-year-old Cano has looked nothing like his usual self. His subpar performance played a key part in a miserable first half for the Mets, who’ve endured a chaotic three-plus months and limped to a 40-50 record thus far.

The Cano acquisition was one of many bold offseason moves by first-year Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, the potential Hall of Famer’s former agent. While inexpensive closer Edwin Diaz was likely the real target in the Mets’ return from the Mariners in a blockbuster December trade, it’s obvious there was confidence in Cano on New York’s part. Otherwise, the club wouldn’t have taken on four years and $100MM of Cano to land Diaz. Unfortunately for the Mets, though, neither player has performed to expectations this year.

The sweet-swinging Cano entered the year a lifetime .304/.355/.493 hitter (127 wRC+) with 56.7 fWAR – the sixth-highest total among position players from 2005-18 – as well as 311 home runs in 8,841 plate appearances. He offered similarly excellent production last year, though a fractured right hand and an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension cut his season in half.

Cano’s 2018 ban didn’t scare off the Mets, for whom he has batted a weak .240/.287/.360 (74 wRC+) with a mere four HRs in 258 trips to the plate. Cano has also accounted for a ghastly minus-7 Defensive Runs and a minus-3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating at second, a position he has typically handled with aplomb. To make matters worse, the once-durable Cano has endured a pair of stints on the injured list because of quad problems. During the 65 games Cano has taken the field, he has posted minus-0.5 fWAR – a stark fall from grace for someone who logged 2.9 during his shortened 2018 and has exceeded the 3.0 mark in nine seasons.

If you’re looking for causes for Cano’s awful offensive production this season, start with a power outage. His ISO’s at .120, 69 points lower than the mean he recorded coming into this season. It’s also 60 points worse than the league-average figure and 18th from the bottom among 195 hitters who have amassed at least 250 PA. As FanGraphs’ heatmaps indicate (pre-2019, this year), Cano typically showed a solid amount of power on the inner and outer halves of the strike zone before the current campaign. His power this year has been confined to the middle of the plate, though, and it’s not even as strong there anymore.

Cano’s still making plenty of hard contact – he ranks in the majors’ 83rd percentile in that category and its 77th percentile in average exit velocity, according to Statcast. But he’s pulling the ball less than ever, striking out a good amount more than he has in prior seasons and swinging and missing at a career-worst rate. A more aggressive approach – evidenced by a personal-high swing rate – hasn’t panned out, as shown by a career-low contact percentage.

When Cano has put the bat on the ball, he has only registered a .283 batting average on balls in play – down 36 points compared to 2005-18. There may be some poor fortune involved in that. As mentioned, he has hit the ball hard. There’s also a 28-point gap between his weighted on-base average and his expected wOBA. Still, though, Cano’s xwOBA is an underwhelming .307. That ranks in the majors’ 28th percentile, while his sprint speed (15th), expected slugging percentage (36th) and expected batting average (54th) are also mediocre or much worse. None of that’s conducive to a high BABIP or quality overall production, nor is Cano’s sudden uselessness against same-handed pitchers.

Although the lefty-hitting Cano has been much tougher on right-handed pitchers in his career, he has at least posed a threat versus southpaws. A lifetime .282/.333/.429 hitter (106 wRC+) without the platoon advantage, the 2019 version of Cano’s at a putrid .206/.275/.222 (43 wRC+) against lefties. Another look at FanGraphs’ heatmaps (pre-2019, this season) shows lefties have lived much more belt-high middle or on the outer half of the plate against Cano this year compared to prior seasons. He hasn’t found an answer yet.

Answers in general have been hard to come by for this year’s Mets, one of the season’s greatest letdowns to date. There may not be time for a team-wide turnaround in 2019, but if Cano returns to his pre-Mets form in the season’s second half, at least the club would have that to hang its hat on going into the winter. Right now, though, the acquisition of Cano looks like a massive misstep by Van Wagenen, who may have saddled his team with an albatross contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Face Decision On Tyler Thornburg

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The Red Sox announced today that they have recalled the rehabilitation assignment of righty Tyler Thornburg. While the reliever remains on the injured list for the time being, the move begins a two-day period within which the club will have to decide whether to activate him or instead remove him from the MLB roster, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe notes on Twitter.

Thornburg has been working back from a hip impingement since late May — the latest in a line of health issues that have significantly limited him since he came to Boston in the 2016-17 offseason. He has averaged 94.1 mph on his average fastball this year in the majors, but little else has gone according to plan.

Despite the return to a velocity level that sits just over his career average, Thornburg managed only an 8.6% swinging-strike rate over his 18 2/3 innings. He did record 22 strikeouts, but also handed over ten walks and gave up four long balls. If anything, it might be surprising the ball didn’t leave the yard more often. Opposing hitters tagged Thornburg to the tune of a 92.4 mph average exit velocity, 56.6% hard-contact rate, and 20.4 degree average launch angle.

In all, Thornburg coughed up 7.71 earned per nine in the majors. And his rehab showing at Triple-A hasn’t been any more promising. In 10 2/3 frames there, he was ambushed for a whopping 15 earned runs and five long balls.

It’s possible that the Sox will give Thornburg one more shot to make good at the MLB level. Odds are they’ll decide it’s time to cut bait, even with a relief unit that’s in need of supplementation. Other organizations will surely like to see if they can help the veteran get back to what once made him a quality reliever, though it’s hard to imagine any taking on the remainder of his $1.75MM salary.

Tendering Thornburg in his final season of arb eligibility has proven a regrettable decision for the Red Sox, though it’s understandable the organization sought to recoup some value. Despite turning in questionable results when he was able to pitch in 2018, Thornburg evidently showed enough for the club to think he could rediscover his form. Indeed, over the winter, the club even cited him as a possible member of the late-inning mix.

Nationals Nearing Deal With Brad Boxberger

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The Nationals are nearing a deal with veteran reliever Brad Boxberger, according to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (via Twitter). It’s said to be a minor-league arrangement.

Boxberger was released recently by the Royals, who’ll remain obligated for the remainder of his $2.2MM salary. Should the righty make it up to the majors in D.C., his new organization would pay him at the league-minimum rate, providing a bit of relief to the Kansas City club.

If it feels as if the relief-needy Nats are scooping up all the veteran relievers that have been cut loose by other teams … well, that’s not far from the truth. Fernando Rodney, Jonny Venters, and Javy Guerra all opened the season with other clubs before landing with the Nationals on minors deals and then filtering up to the big leagues. (The club also nabbed outfielder Gerardo Parra under similar circumstances.) Dan Jennings and George Kontos also opened the year elsewhere before joining the D.C. org, though both are at Triple-A at present.

This approach surely wasn’t the plan going in, but it proved necessary as the Nationals relief unit turned in calamitous results over the first few months of the season. It still doesn’t look like an inspiring assemblage of pitchers, but the D.C. pen has been a passable group more recently, allowing (though not exactly driving) a fantastic run in the standings that now has the organization set up for more substantial additions over the next three weeks.

Even as the Nats’ front office begins pursuing trade targets in earnest, they’ll seemingly continue building out the depth options. Boxberger certainly fits the same general mold as the numerous other pitchers who’ve been brought on board. A long-established MLB hurler, the 31-year-old merited a guaranteed contract after a tepid but still-useful 2018 season but then failed to hit his stride in the early going this year.

It’ll be interesting to see whether the new organization can get Boxberger back on track. Trouble is, he’s working with significantly less velocity than ever before; he’s down to 90.5 mph with his average heater this year after sitting just under 93 for his career. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, Boxberger is going to offspeed offerings more than ever before, serving up his change on about one in three pitches and his slider on one of every five deliveries.

The results just haven’t been there, and neither have the peripherals. Boxberger is sitting on a 5.40 ERA over 26 2/3 innings, with 9.1 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9. On the positive side, his 11.3% swinging-strike rate isn’t far from his career average. And Statcast readings indicate that Boxberger has been a bit unfortunate. Opposing hitters have managed only 85.3 mph in average exit velocity. Boxberger is carrying a .311 xwOBA-against that lags the .329 wOBA that opposing hitters have produced.

Jonathan Lucroy Diagnosed With Concussion, Broken Nose

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TODAY: Lucroy was diagnosed with a concussion and fractured nose, per a team announcement. It is not known at this point approximately how much time he will miss.

The veteran backstop is slated to visit with an ENT physician after the swelling has gone down, at which time perhaps more will be known. That visit is not expected to take place until after All-Star break.

YESTERDAY: Angels catcher Jonathan Lucroy was taken out of today’s game after a scary-looking collision at home plate with the Astros’ Jake Marisnick.  In the eighth inning of a tied 10-10 game, Marisnick attempted to score from third on a fly ball, and ran directly into Lucroy as the catcher had to move slightly up the line to pursue the throw.  (Marisnick was called out for an illegal collision.)  Lucroy had a bloody nose and attempted to get up after the play, though team trainers convinced him to stay down for examination.

Lucroy was taken to hospital for a CT scan, as per an Angels team announcement, and the catcher will be examined for a possible nose fracture and a possible concussion.  More will be known after Lucroy is seen by doctors, though even with the All-Star break providing four days of recovery time, it would seem likely that Lucroy will face an injured list placement.

Lucroy was 2-for-4 with a double and a triple in the game, bringing his season total to .237/.307/.364 over 264 plate appearances.  Signed to a one-year contract worth $3.35MM guaranteed over the offseason, Lucroy is in his third straight season of below-average offensive production after several years as one of baseball’s best-hitting catchers earlier in the decade.  As per Baseball Prospectus, he is also near the bottom of the league in both pitch-framing and blocking numbers in 2019.

Kevan Smith has seen more time behind the plate for Los Angeles in the wake of Lucroy’s struggles, though Smith is currently on the injured list himself recovering from a hand strain.  If both Lucroy and Smith are sidelined following the All-Star break, Dustin Garneau becomes the Halos’ top choice behind the plate, with Jose Briceno on the 40-man roster down at Triple-A.  It remains to be seen if the 45-46 Angels will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, though catching could potentially be a target area if the club does decide to add pieces to make a wild card run.

Yankees, Twins Have Each Asked About Package Deal For Stroman, Giles

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The Blue Jays have one of the best starters (Marcus Stroman) and one of the best relievers (Ken Giles) available on this summer’s trade market, and TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that teams have been expressing interest in acquiring both in the same package. Both the Twins and the Yankees have reached out to Toronto to express interest in a single trade to net both pitchers, per Mitchell, who cautions that the organization’s preference may be to maximize the return by orchestrating separate trades.

Minnesota’s interest in Giles (and relief help in general) has already been reported. But for all the help the Twins could use in the ’pen, the rotation is also a potential area of focus. The wheels have come off the Martin Perez project of late, as the lefty has been hammered for a 5.37 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9 and a 54.6 percent grounder rate across his past 10 starts. And while Michael Pineda has improved in recent weeks as he distances himself from 2017 Tommy John surgery, he also figures to have his workload more carefully managed late in the season.

The Yankees are a similarly logical landing spot for Stroman. Luis Severino has yet to pitch this season due to multiple injuries, while each of James Paxton, Domingo German and CC Sabathia has spent time on the injured list. Left-hander J.A. Happ has struggled as well (5.02 ERA, 5.35 FIP in 89 12/3 innings) — unable to replicate a quartet of strong seasons from 2015-18.

Stroman recently had a bit of a health scare, exiting his last outing against the Royals due to a pectoral cramp. His final start prior to the All-Star break was skipped, but Stroman isn’t expected to miss time beyond that. If the issue is as minor as it appears to be, Stroman’s value wouldn’t be likely to take a hit. It seems quite likely that Stroman will be wearing a new uniform come Aug. 1, although Atkins danced around the matter without addressing the likelihood of a deal in a recent meeting with the Toronto media (link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet):

I would say this: Marcus has put himself in an incredible position throughout his career, not just over the last four months. He has been durable. He has performed at an exceptionally high rate. He’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball over the last three years and because of that he is in a great position for his future with the Toronto Blue Jays and there are 29 other teams that are thinking the same way, that they would love to have someone that has been durable and has been productive. We’ll see. With another year of control for us, that’s attractive to us, that’s extremely attractive to other teams, as well. He’s put himself in a remarkable spot and earned all of that respect.

As for Giles, he may appear to be somewhat of a luxury for a deep Yankees relief corps, but it’s also true that the ’pen hasn’t been as dominant as many might have expected. Aroldis Chapman and Tommy Kahnle have thrived, and Chad Green looks reborn since a brief demotion to Triple-A in late April. Adam Ottavino has a sub-2.00 ERA but 6.1 BB/9 mark. Zack Britton’s bat-missing ability still hasn’t returned, as his 6.3 K/9 mark isn’t much higher than his 4.9 BB/9. Jonathan Holder had to be optioned to the minors after struggling to keep his ERA under 7.00. Dellin Betances, like Severino, hasn’t pitched in 2019.

Either Stroman or Giles on his own would have a fairly notable asking price, so adding both at once may very well teeter on exorbitant. The Jays seem likely to move both, though, and they’re also expected to gauge interest in Justin Smoak, Freddy Galvis, Aaron Sanchez, Eric Sogard, Daniel Hudson and other veterans as their rebuilding efforts continue.

White Sox Claim AJ Reed

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The White Sox announced that they’ve claimed first baseman/designated hitter AJ Reed off waivers from the Astros. Injured pitcher Ryan Burr was transferred to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Reed, who was designated for assignment by Houston last week, has been assigned to Triple-A Charlotte.

Baseball America once rated the now-26-year-old Reed as the game’s No. 11 overall prospect, but the slugger never lived up to that billing. He’s hit just .153/.253/.244 and punched out 50 times in 150 Major League plate appearances, though it’s also worth emphasizing that Reed has never had much of a shot at regular playing time in the big leagues.

Reed’s .224/.329/.469 line in Triple-A this season has been underwhelming, but he has a lifetime .260/.351/.517 with 89 home runs in 1617 plate appearances at that level. Reed’s strikeout rate has jumped 23.7 percent in 2018 to 29.8 percent in 2019, but he’s still walking at the same strong 12 percent clip he’s managed in each of his three prior seasons in Triple-A.

The White Sox have Jose Abreu entrenched at first base, but he’s a free agent at season’s end. The South Siders also recently released Yonder Alonso, freeing up significant time at both first base and designated hitter. Reed is in his final option season, so he’ll need to make next year’s Opening Day roster or else be exposed to waivers once again. There’s little reason for the Sox not to give Reed a look, however. given his recent prospect pedigree and the potential long-term opening at first/DH. Even if the organization ultimately extends or re-signs Abreu, Reed could be given an opportunity to establish himself in an arrangement similar to the previous timeshare between Abreu and Alonso.

Rays’ Jose Alvarado Likely Out Six To Eight Weeks

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July 8: The outlook on Alvarado is worse than originally anticipated. Topkin tweets that following an MRI and a meeting with a doctor yesterday, the Rays expect Alvardo to be sidelined for anywhere from six to eight weeks.

Tampa Bay is facing a stretch of games that’ll prove pivotal to determining their level of aggression as the trade deadline approaches. The loss of Alvarado for such a substantial chunk of time will surely play into that calculus between now and July 31, as their need for ’pen reinforcements is now even more acute.

July 6: According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links), Rays lefty Jose Alvarado has suffered an oblique injury that could keep him sidelined for the next 2-6 weeks. Alvarado was pulled from today’s game against the Yankees after wincing on the follow-through of his final pitch.

Alvarado, 24, hasn’t exactly provided invaluable innings to the Rays’ bullpen this year (4.85 ERA / 3.55 FIP across 26 innings), but much of that damage came in a recent five-run meltdown two appearances ago. It was only last year that he posted terrific numbers in his first full big league campaign. In 2018, the sizable left-hander recorded 80 K’s in 64 innings for the 90-win Rays, while logging a terrific 2.39 ERA.

The Tampa Bay bullpen, on the whole, has been quite effective in 2019, with a collective 3.65 ERA–good enough for second among all major league relief units. Alvarado had only returned to that group on June 29th, following nearly a month away from the team spent tending to a family health emergency in his native Venezuela. There has been no word yet of resultant roster moves in the wake of this injury.

Rays Rumors: Trade Deadline, Jimenez

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After dropping a pair of games against the Yankees to open their four-game series this past weekend, the Rays rallied to win a pair of one-run games and avoid falling further back in the division than the 6.5 games they trailed as of last Thursday. That pair of wins could prove to be pivotal, as Tampa Bay general manager Erik Neander recently acknowledged that his team’s level of aggression at the trade deadline will directly correlate with their proximity to the division lead.

“I think we’re likely to be the most aggressive the more that the division is in play,” Neander told Juan Toribio of MLB.com. “…Our standing within the division will probably dictate how aggressive we’ll look to be.”

The Rays come out of the break with four games against the Orioles in a three-day span. Over that same stretch, the Yankees will play three games in Toronto. Following that opening series for both teams, an even more critical four-game series between the Rays and Yankees will take place in the Bronx. At the conclusion of that series, fewer than two weeks will remain until the July 31 trad deadline.

As for the Rays’ current direction, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote this weekend that he anticipates a measured approach rather than aggressive pursuits of high-end assets like Giants closer Will Smith or Padres closer Kirby Yates. The Rays, for instance, are currently more interested in Tigers setup man Joe Jimenez than they are closer Shane Greene, per Topkin. One could argue that Jimenez is the more appealing of the two given that he’s controlled through the 2023 season — Greene is controlled only through 2020 — but Jimenez is still a work in progress. Greene, meanwhile, is a first-time All-Star in the midst of a career season.

There’s ample reason for Tampa Bay to be interested in Jimenez, it should be noted. The 24-year-old was not long ago considered to be the Tigers’ future closer, thanks largely to a heater that averages 95.5 mph and a slider that drew plus grades on scouting reports. Jimenez has a pedestrian 4.48 ERA dating back to Opening Day 2018, but he also sports a 3.52 FIP with 12.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 in 96 1/3 innings. This year’s 4.81 ERA is particularly underwhelming, but Jimenez has held opponents to three runs on six hits and two walks with 14 punchouts in 8 1/3 innings over the past month.

Neander emphasized to Toribio that the Rays never approach the deadline with the mentality that they “have to” make a trade (or multiple trades) but also spoke of a continued “opportunistic” mentality as July 31 looms. The Rays would be “OK” were the deadline to pass without a transaction taking place, per Neander, although recent history should signify such an outcome is unlikely. Tampa Bay has made at least one notable deal in four of the past five July trading seasons; David Price, Chris Archer, Tommy Pham, Kevin Jepsen, Steve Cishek, David DeJesus and Sergio Romo are among the recognizable veterans who’ve been involved in Rays swaps over the past half decade (more of them leaving Tampa Bay than arriving).

The Rays have been previously reported to have interest in adding multiple bullpen arms as well as a right-handed bat.

Red Sox “Pushing” To Add To Rotation

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The Red Sox are making a push to land a starting pitcher on the trade market and “prefer to act sooner rather than later,” reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter).

Boston is said to be casting the proverbial wide net in seeking an arm to slot into the starting five behind Chris Sale, David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez and the struggling Rick Porcello. The Red Sox re-signed Nathan Eovaldi on a four-year, $68MM contract this past offseason in hopes that he could round out the rotation behind that bunch, but Eovaldi underwent surgery to remove a loose body from his elbow in late April. He’s yet to return from that procedure, and even when he does, the organization plans to use him in the ninth inning to help fortify a beleaguered relief corps that went unaddressed in the offseason.

The market for starting pitching is thin but not barren. Madison Bumgarner is widely expected to be traded between now and July 31, although the Red Sox are known to be on his no-trade last. Division-rival Marcus Stroman is a likely candidate, too, as is Baltimore’s Andrew Cashner. Detroit’s Matthew Boyd is available for a high asking price, and it’s at least anecdotally worth pointing out that Red Sox president of baseball operations acquired Boyd for the Tigers when he previously served as their GM. Like Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler of the Mets is a free agent at season’s end and is a strong candidate to be traded this month. The Royals could potentially move southpaw Danny Duffy as well, and there will be other options beyond the group listed here.

As recently as last week, Red Sox owner John Henry publicly indicated that he didn’t anticipate adding “a lot of payroll” for the 2019 season. Boston is already the lone MLB team in the top luxury tax bracket, and any dollar that’s added to the team’s payroll will come with a 75 percent overage tax as a result. Boston can avoid paying a steep financial price by either acquiring a pre-arbitration arm or convincing a potential trade partner to pay down some of a veteran’s guaranteed salary, but either approach would require a steeper price tag in terms of prospects.

The Red Sox’ farm system isn’t considered to be particularly robust — although the oft-recited “don’t have the prospects to get something done” line is overstated. MLB.com’s most recent rankings of the Boston system credits the team with eight 50-grade prospects, while top organizational prospects Triston Casas and Futures Game participant Jarren Duran have both elevated their stock on Fangraphs’ midseason update.

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